Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Zitat

Original von germoney
Anyway, good luck to your decision.

Anyway, not lucky days for everyone, I am seven five percent satisfied with my decision, two days ago.

Kann jemand schon eine Bodenbildung ausmachen?

Nach dem studieren meines heutigen Kaffeesatzes gehe ich davon aus, dass der Kurs bis knapp unter die magischen 500 geht. Nicht ganz unwichtig sind im Moment für mich als EU-Anleger auch die Währungsschwankungen. Für einen Einkauf isses ja jetzt besser. Und da werde ich dann zukzessive wieder kaufrauschen, wenn der Kurs <500 ist und sich ein Bodensatz abzeichnet, der mit meinem Kaffesatz konform geht.

Die Minen halten sich erstaunlich gut. Meine Aussage nach 3 Wochen Goldrausch: Die Minenkurse zeigen das Potenzial in Wartestellung, der Goldkurs die Panik der Spekulanten.

Weihnachtliche Grüße @all!

Bill Murphy vom 12.12. : Perhaps $510 worst case, though hard for me seeing it getting close to that number.

Schon 2 Tage später von der retreating army der Kabale aufs Haupt geschlagen.

-13,80 $ auf 506,20 USD

Jim Puplava im Gespräch mit Frank Barbera vom 10.12.
1. Stunde ab ca. 48 Min.
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

Barbera erwartet serious correction bis 470 USD, ev. sogar bis 420.
25-30 Dollar Tagesverlust möglich
Leute werden wünschen, niemals das Wort Gold gehört zu haben

Ulfur, ich sagte vor ein paar Tagen Gold haelt sich ueber 500 Dollar, ich bleibe dabei, ab Freitag/Montag kann wieder gekauft werden.
Auch der HUI ueber 230 wird halten.
Der Markt ist bis Freitag ausgewaschen, IMO

Gruss

Eldo

Zitat

Bill Murphy vom 12.12. : Perhaps $510 worst case, though hard for me seeing it getting close to that number.

Schon 2 Tage später von der retreating army der Kabale aufs Haupt geschlagen.

GATA halte ich ja auch für sehr unterstützungswürdig, und demzufolge gebührt auch Bill Murphy Unterstützung. Was aber seine Kommentare betrifft, so muss man schon sagen, dass die regelmässig vor Zweckoptimismus nur so triefen. Als Markttimer kann man ihn höchstens dann benutzen, wenn man ihn als Kontraindikator nimmt, wie das mein Namensvetter machte. Ich glaube, dass seine kurzfristigen Vorhersagen in deutlich weniger als 50% zutrafen (ok, die Richtung aufwärts stimmte meistens, wir sind ja in einem Bullenmarkt, aber in Bezug auf die Kurzziele, die platzenden Neutronenbomben :O, sowie die bankrott gehenden Banken, etc....).
Man bedenke auch, dass er vor zwei Jahren für Goldkurse über 400 $/Unze das Ende von JP Morgan prophezeite!

Grüsse,
Bob

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
...
Die Riesenhausse steht weit weit bevor.
...
Edel Man

Danke Edel Man, das ist Balsam auf unsere offenen Wunden.

Auch Bill Cara bleibt optimistisch, auch kurzfristig. Folgender Kommentar aus seinem Blog von heute:

With the recent run-up in gold as well as the distinct possibility of a monetary policy change within the U.S. Administration, the trading rooms of Humungous Bank & Broker are now in a fire-fight to square short positions in other currencies against the USD. So this week, while I was writing about trade war (which will still be a feature of 2006 capital markets), I should have been focused on a global forex war.

The good thing about this battle to rebalance the currency books ahead of major changes to come in gold, equity and bond markets in 2006, is that it is almost over. In the meantime, it appears the USD is in free-fall against some currencies.

Still in play is the USD versus Yen (JPY), Euro (EUR), and Swiss Franc (CHF). As I see it, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) became rebalanced mid-day Wednesday, and the British Pound (GBP) has been square since early Tuesday. Today (overnight), the Australian Dollar (AUD) squared up.

This situation, which is most disconcerting to us traders who are not involved (as it clearly affects equity and bond markets as well), was started in my view when the U.S. Administration went too far in encouraging a strong USD, which was/is needed to assure the continuing reliance on foreign buyers of U.S. debt. You see, the U.S. debt situation is right out of control, and if foreigners don’t buy that debt, then interest rates in the U.S. will have to move sharply higher, which would send the U.S. into a sudden recession.

So traders in the big bank trading rooms spent much of 2005 short positions in foreign currencies against the USD, which created the problem in forex markets because the economic fundamentals (CPI/PPI/M3) did not support it.

The game came to an end after gold decoupled from the USD, after global traders in gold decided they didn’t care how strong the USD was going to get, they wanted gold. As soon as gold started to rocket higher in the 2H05, it was inevitable that sooner or later the longs in the USD had to reverse their positions.

Some couldn’t wait. To wit: Warren Buffett. Berkshire Hathaway has taken one of the largest losses in forex history in 2005 after being massively short the USD, against the decision of Humungous Bank & Broker to play the USD long this year. Warren, in desperation opted to quit the short Dollar trade, and when he did the transfer of wealth from Berkshire Hathaway to the big banks was complete.

I believe that as soon as the USD longs and Yen and Euro shorts are squared in the next few days, there will be a very big move up in gold.

In fact the next bull move in gold, as I see it, will be bigger than the one that started in the second week in November taking spot gold from $455 to $535 (almost +18 pct) in five weeks. That move will coincide with the forthcoming international discussion that will focus on the serious problem in U.S. credit markets (individuals as well as government debt) and the downfall of mortgage-backed securities.

So just when gold “experts” and Elliot Wave Theory “experts” are telling the world they know that gold is headed back to the low 400’s, it is my call that precisely the opposite is going to happen. I believe the next move in gold will be to $600, and then within a couple years to at least $1,000.

This morning gold (the near contracts) is about $506, down -$3.50, which is a decline of about 5.5 pct since gold hit its high last weekend. As the market in forex is so chaotic today, it is impossible for traders to confidently forecast a near-term cycle bottom in gold. But I think it is close at hand.

The 5-day charts of the USD priced in the major foreign currencies, from Yahoo Finance, are printed below. The moves are shocking. Fortunately, the big moves are almost over in forex markets, and then the price of gold will be free to move to its own level, which I believe will be much higher.
As a tell tale of the move in gold, I will be watching the CHF:EUR pair. When the Swissie outperforms the Euro (and the Pound), then Europeans are showing their discontent with money supply growth in Europe as measured against what they perceive what money is being used for (which in this case would be for uses other than wealth creation).

..ausgetraeumt IMO

Dump dollar, go for gold: Faber

I believe that as soon as the USD longs and Yen and Euro shorts are squared in the next few days, there will be a very big move up in gold.

Sehe ich auch so und hab' grad' ein paar Barren geordert.

sehe ich genauso und hab gestern kräfig pysisch zugeschlagen.
Der "je oller umso Dollar" ist überkauft

;)Edel, der Mogambo ist wieder mal zum schreien !

Four Decades. . .

Four Upside Targets from Similar Consolidations

Technical observations of :

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
Dec 15, 2005

The gold price achieved its minimum measured target of $526 as of December 9th. This calculation was based upon the measurements from the consolidation of December 2004 through the breakout in September 2005. This is now the fourth consecutive decade that has produced a 7 to 8 month consolidation of similar structure followed by a breakout, minor pullback to the breakout and then a headline generating rally to a measured target. The degree of strength suggests that a quick pullback here will likely be followed by further upside progress in the coming weeks.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye121505.html

GOLD STOCKS AND BURNING MATCHES

by Doug Casey

Gold stocks move with the price of gold, but their price swings are more emphatic. In other words, gold stocks have leverage with respect to gold.

That's the broad-brush picture, and it's the starting point for thinking about gold stocks. But of course, it doesn't answer all the questions. For example, in an unfolding gold bull market, will you make more money with junior explorers...or with producers?

Is there a predictable stage of the market where you are more likely to make the biggest returns? Given a rising gold price, is anything else needed for gold stocks to take off? In particular, since gold stocks are stocks, can they rise without a favorable tone for the stock market in general?

You're going to find good reason to love gold stocks. But I hope you won't fall in love with them. Although I'm a philosophical gold bug, I'm not always a gold bull. I always keep in the back of my mind that gold shares aren't heirlooms, they're burning matches.

And while I still think this market will see gold's biggest run in history, when it's over these stocks will lose 90% of their value... as does any class of stocks when a mania ends. But the good news is that the mania hasn't even begun. For a number of reasons, mostly related to the simple passage of time, digging up hard data from earlier gold bull markets - especially for the junior explorers - was surprisingly difficult.

Many old-timers from the bull market of the late 1970s are now retired or pushing up daisies; some stock indexes we would like to examine don't actually exist; and the Vancouver Stock Exchange, the birthing ground of so many junior resource companies, has undergone many evolutions. I wish I'd kept my chart books from 25 years ago.

You probably already know the multitude of reasons why I believe the broader stock markets are about to meet a financial Freddy Krueger. I won't repeat myself here, other than to say that we are fast approaching the point at which the U.S. government will have to choose between crushing hocked-to-their-eyeballs American consumers by continuing to increase interest rates (a rock) in order to keep the dollar attractive to the foreigners who lend U.S. markets about $2 billion per day... or letting the dollar tank (a hard place), triggering all sorts of fiscal unpleasantness. Given that less than rosy view, let's start by testing the notion that because gold stocks are stocks, they will follow the trends of the general stock market.

Unfortunately, that idea doesn't hold up. Gold stocks largely march to their own drummer, sometimes in the same general direction as broader stock markets, but sometimes distinctly contrary to same. Yet it is true that the strongest moves in gold stocks have occurred when the general market, as well as gold, was moving up (1971-73, 1983-1983, 1985-1987, 1993-1996). So gold stocks can move on their own, no matter what the S&P is doing. But what moves them?

Generally speaking, three forces can move gold shares significantly higher.

(1) The price of bullion. In my opinion, we have at least two more years of rising gold prices - including a blow-off top - yet ahead.

(2) Discovery. As a stimulant for investor interest, few things outside of runaway gold prices get things moving faster than a major discovery. A discovery almost always provides a halo effect for a multitude of companies with the (usually) dumb luck to have a property in the neighborhood, and sometimes to the gold stock sector as a whole.

(3) Promotion. A determined promoter can do wonders with an area play and, at least temporarily, take even a mediocre stock and run it up to the moon. That was the case with Nevsun, one of my personal bests - at least for short term returns - which went up more than 8 times almost overnight based on the frenetic efforts of a single broker. As you'll read, in the 1980s, one particularly hard-working promoter was almost singly-handedly responsible for powering up two separate bull markets. With those drivers in mind, it's time for a quick trip down memory lane.

For most gold investors, the quintessential bull market was the move that took bullion to $850 in 1980.

To help keep that happy ride in perspective, gold had bottomed at $104 in August of 1976. From there it rose 725%, to $850 in January of 1980, with most of the gain coming in 1979. In today's dollars, gold would need to reach about $2,000 to match that 1980 high.

The next page in our story is trading activity on the Vancouver Stock Exchange (VSE), the world's leading exchange for junior resource stocks. Despite 1979's strong run-up in bullion prices, trading activity was nearly constant and at modest levels for most of the year, indicating remarkably little investor interest in gold stocks.

Somewhat predictably, the big trading activity didn't come until January of 1980. Following gold's subsequent steep fall to $482 in March, trading picked up again as gold rallied to a secondary peak of $711 in September.

While it's tempting to view the trading history as another case of investors piling into an investment at the worst possible time - in this case, after gold had peaked at $850 - when you look at share prices, you'll see that's not quite the case.

Between December 1978 and the gold's price peak in January 1980, gold stocks turned in stellar performances. It's noteworthy that the peak for the stocks came well after bullion had peaked.

Even though the price of gold fell sharply - from $850 to $482, between January and March - it subsequently recovered and ran back up to $711 in September, giving gold stock investors a false hope that gold would retake its previous high and go to the stars. Unfortunately, the opposite happened, and the long dark night of falling bullion prices set in. Many stocks simply dried up and blew away.

Also notable is that junior explorers often do much better than producers in a bull market, even one driven by strongly rising bullion prices. To figure out why that is, think back to the dot-com boom, when the startups and miscellaneous cats and dogs far outperformed established companies.

Case in point: recall that, pre-merger, Time Warner, a going concern with tangible assets and an identifiable revenue stream, was able to command a market capitalization of "only" $83 billion... while loss-making AOL, rich mainly in blue sky, was valued at $163 billion. In the case of the former, the likely returns were predictable and clearly finite. In the case of the latter, investors paid up and paid big for the dream of untold riches... much the same as they do for junior explorers when hearts are beating fast for gold.

So far, gold shares have been relatively quiet compared to gold itself. That will change, and dramatically so, once the investment masses wake up to gold and the role it has to play in the new economic realities.

The investment masses will almost certainly wait until gold prices are significantly higher before piling in. But when they do, the upside for those investors smart enough to be building a portfolio of quality junior gold explorers at this stage - meaning now - will be truly stunning.

In fact, I'm convinced that not only will the returns be much richer than in the 1979/1980 bull market... they'll be so rich that even I'll be surprised at how high the better companies go. This will be one for the books... don't miss it.

Regards,

Doug Casey

It’s Always Darkest Before the Dawn

By: Dr. Richard S. Appel, Financial Insights

December 15, 2005 –I for one was taken by surprise with the ease that gold rose and roared unimpeded through the $500-$510 an ounce level. This range should have presented extremely strong resistance. Beyond the fact that an important round number such as $500 nearly always gives pause to any major price rise, $510 was an earlier formidable area that repelled the eternal metal’s advances in January, 1983, and again in December, 1987. Yet, despite the enormous upward rush that unfolded when this major zone was left behind, gold quickly ran into a wall of selling and once again plunged in price.

From its Bull Market inception at $252.50 in August, 1999, bullish investors have been forced to endure repeated brutal or extended, deteriorating price reversals. This has prevented all but its most ardent believers from continually riding the gold bull. As with most major, secular Bull Markets some of these price declines while relatively brief, were terrifyingly steep. This was due in part to the rapidity with which the earlier labored price rises often gave way to seemingly waterfall price collapses.

Gold’s first major Bull Market price break occurred after its $252.50 nadir spawned a rapid rise to the mid-$320 range. The upward surge required barely a month to unfold but then, just as suddenly as it appeared, the wind was knocked from its sails. An eighteen month grinding decline ensued before a double bottom was struck at $255, in early 2001.

During the great gold Bull Market of the1970's, a price downturn such as we are now enduring would have been quite nerve-wracking for me. However, today, in a way I am fortunate. This is due to my experience which dates back to the mid-1960's, when I first recognized gold’s eternal importance to civilized man.

Across the following forty year period I was a staunch observer of gold’s daily price action. I was there when the London Gold Pool lost control of the gold price in1968. This group consisted of the United States and seven other major central banks. Their mandate was to maintain gold near the $35 price on the world’s then major gold market, the London Gold Exchange. During the time of the Gold Pool’s existence, inflation crept higher in the economies of the various members, while the gold price was prevented from expressing itself.

The Pool was formed in1961. Then as now, they were successful in suppressing the upward movement in gold until that fortuitous day in March, 1968. I watched when the market ultimately overwhelmed their efforts, and when investors fell over themselves and drove gold from $35 to $44.25 in the space of only two trading days. I was also there when gold collapsed from $200 at the end of December, 1974, to its final $103 low eighteen months later. It took only three and a half years after that nadir, for gold to touch its $875 an ounce Bull Market peak.

I guess that over the years I’ve become somewhat emotionally immune to sharp gold price reversals. This is due to a few factors. First, I am convinced that gold is in a secular Bull Market that is destined to eventually leave its1980 peak of $875 far behind. This belief is reinforced by the fashion in which our government and Fed appear hell-bent upon preventing even a modest recession from developing. In fact, I believe that this desire is a major reason for Dr. Benjamin Bernanke’s rapid ascent from virtual obscurity, to his likely seat as Federal Reserve Board Chairman. If he performs in the fashion that he has stated, he will be responsible for creating an even greater flood of inflationary purchasing media, than for which even Alan Greenspan can be credited.

Despite the fact that the general public and the majority of noted financial experts do not understand the relationship, gold’s destiny is sealed. As an unprecedented number of dollar credits are created to fund our unsustainable Federal, and balance of payments and trade deficits, knowledgeable buyers will increasingly acquire the yellow metal, and move it higher in price. They will realize that the future loss of the dollar’s purchasing power will affect gold as it has throughout history. It will drive people into the metal, as a drowning person lunges for a life raft. Those who purchase gold will do so in their desire to maintain the purchasing power of their wealth. The swimmer, to save his life.

Another primary reason why the current gold price reversal has not affected me as it would have in the past, is that it seems “like deja vu all over again”. I’ve lived through all of the similar declines during the gold bull of the 1970's, as well as those that occurred during its 1985-1987, and 1993-1996 Bear Market rallies.

It may be difficult to accept but corrections are important for the gold Bull Market! It is normal for downdrafts during Bull Markets to be quite severe. In fact, they often appear to be more intense than most Bear Market down-legs. These secondary corrections act to frighten the weak holders out of the market. In this fashion they cleanse the market. After the tentative investors have jettisoned their positions, the market is then prepared to resume its skyward price assault.

I began anticipating this correction when gold ignored the resistance that should have appeared between $500 and $510 an ounce, and rocketed higher in price. Yet, I wondered from what price level it would occur. When gold did not hesitate, and immediately broke through the $500-$510 area, I sensed that the buyers and trapped short-sellers had panicked. With some trepidation, I was uncertain if this zone would be left untested, by a downward leg, as gold extended its upward climb. I was concerned because I felt that the upswing was too sharp to be sustainable, and feared that the higher the yellow metal went without a correction, the more severe would be its decline when it arrived.

In the December issue of Financial Insights with gold at $495.90, I wrote regarding the $500-$510 range, “Importantly, to my mind, any show of substantial near-term strength from this level should be viewed as a change in the tone of the market. It will indicate that far greater demand, if not panic, abounds for the eternal metal”. I went on and said, “The road ahead will similarly be fraught with periodic, sharp price declines as gold works its way higher in price. If you anticipate their appearance as I do, your life will be far less stressful”. It is amazing how quickly the lust for the precious metal was replaced by outright fear!

It is crucial for all Bull Markets to periodically decline in price! These retracements allow the temporary excesses that have built up to work themselves off. It can be likened to pressure building up in a sealed pressure cooker. If the increasing energy is not allowed to escape, the pot will ultimately explode. Similarly, if a market moves in a parabolic fashion, traveling unchallenged higher in price, when investors finally cease buying, a price collapse will ensue. To my mind while it is terrifying, and fraught with temporary paper losses, the current sharp decline will be remembered as nothing more than a normal correction within gold’s multi-year Bull Market. Further, as hard as it may be to believe while we are in the midst of this reversal, it is truly healthy for the market.

I believe that gold’s present plunging price is setting the stage for a major extension of it’s Bull Market! When it ends, and gold resumes its northward advance, it will be reviewed as having firmly established $500 as a major support area. This will be critical to the market because it will change the perceptions of it’s players. For stock investors it will make them consider revaluing the worth of the ore reserves, and profit potential, of their companies to that price. I am confident that it will spark a major broad-based advance when this realization begins to permeate the market. For gold investors it will foster greater confidence. They will view their downside risk in a less frightening light. As with the stocks, it will become the impetus for a major gold advance.

It will be informative to observe the action of the major gold stocks as viewed through the HUI or XAU during this gold set-back. It is likely that they will bottom before the gold price! In fact, they may actually begin an uptrend while gold still languishes or even continues to fall. This scenario has often transpired at major turning points in the gold universe. If it again occurs it will confirm that a gold bottom is in place.

In sum, I view the present gold decline as simply a frightening episode in gold’s secular Bull Market. I believe that the odds greatly favor gold exhausting its decline at or near the $500 level. While it may temporarily break below that point, it will likely be for only a brief period.

As an aside, when I was placing the finishing touches on this piece I remembered that I had earlier used a similar title. I published an essay on June 17, 2005, describing my belief that the anguish that gold stock investors had endured was about to end. The HUI was trading at about 200 at the time. It essentially traded sideways for the next two months before heading skyward. I could just as well have been describing the gold market in that missive. Gold was near the end of a decline that took it from $456 to a low of about $413. The yellow metal moved slightly higher. It then briefly declined to retest the $413 level but failed to penetrate it, and the rest is history. Deja vu again!

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED

Die Vorraussage von Mahendra hatte ich erst jetzt gesehen, sie stammt vom Sonntag. Diesbezueglich hatte er Recht wie es ausging.
Solange es nicht heftig die PM Aktien betrifft ist es mir Gleichgueltig was das PPT mit dem Goldpreis kurzfristig macht.

Dear Friends,

I always try to put small part of my weekly newsletter but I am not able to publish here as members pays fee for it. I am increasing more than 60% newsletter fee from next week and current price is not that expensive (One day fee is like you spend on coffee).

PREDICTIONS FOR 12 TO 16 DECEMBER

GOLD

This week, the higher tip for gold will be $532.80 (Spot) while the lower end will be $516.80. In this kind of condition, one should trade with stop loss order so as not to be trapped in a rising market if there’s a bear market ahead.

In one of the newsletters in the month of February, I mentioned that there would be an eleven months rising time for metal stocks. If you read correctly, you will note that it should now end any time. The current bull market cycle of gold will therefore soon be at an end before the final rising cycle commences.

On Monday higher opening but sell and Tuesday weak, culminating in a sharp fall on Wednesday and .......

THERE ARE TWO IMPORTANT ADVICES TILL THE END OF JANUARY: First, DON’T KEEP OPEN SHORT POSITIONS (trade with stop loss) IN METALS. Secondly, ALL TRADE SHOULD ONLY BE DONE FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME (NOT MORE THAN 48 HOURS), AFTER WHICH ONE CAN THEN TAKE POSITION ONCE MORE.

METAL STOCKS SHOULD FALL SHAPRLY ANY TIME.

SILVER

Last two year....

This week silver should trade......... if gold trade low as predicted from Monday to Thursday, than silver shall move down to $8.37 and than.........

I shall be closely watching all movements and see if metals come into the grip of Mercury and Venus with the ignorance of Mars. I shall then advise you accordingly.

CURRENCIES

I WILL WRITE - THE NEXT TSUNAMI WAVE OF THE DOLLAR IS ON THE WAY. IT SHALL TAKE THE DOLLAR NOT ONLY TO $94 BUT TOWARDS $98 IN EARLY 2006.

This week trades:

SELL ALL METALS,