Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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    Moin Eldo


    Kurz zu Deinen Comments:


    Dieser temporäre Einfluss aus Japan ist klar,wird aber verblassen.


    Das mit dem Tiefpunkt Mitte 2006 bei Gold mag zutreffen,ist aber wiederum relativ.


    1000$/OZ hört sich noch utopisch an,aber laßt mal erst den Dollar kollabieren.
    Auch bessert sich die Lage in Old - Europe zusehends.


    Das Depot hat sich auch nicht schlecht entwickelt,liege stets nahe beim HUI :]
    Gutes Zeichen,daß die Minen recht stabil liegen!


    Zu Platinmetallen nachfolgend.


    Grüsse und ebenfalls schönes Wochenende
    Edel Man

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    Vanescent


    Nicht schlecht,Herr Specht! ;)


    Also irgendwie rundet sich das Bild der bevorstehenden Kursbewegungen.
    2006 wird mE. noch viel interessanter als das ablaufende Jahr.


    emoba


    Bei Palladium war ich mit PAL dabei,zu früh raus.
    Hatte auch ein Zertifikat.
    Denke ebenfalls wie die meisten, daß Platin industriell weitgehend substituiert wird.


    Schlichtweg Norilsk als Big Boy gekauft,ist nb.Goldplay.


    Grüsse
    Edel Man

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    Einer der mE herausragenden Strategen zum Dollar:


    CURRENCIES: THE DOLLAR RALLY IS OVER


    Written Monty Guild 14th December @ 16:51


    I trust everyone will enjoy the holiday season. We send our warmest greetings to all and are writing this note partially for that purpose. There is, however, another reason for our writing.


    A TREND OF THE LAST YEAR IS OVER. THE U.S. DOLLAR RALLY IS ENDING.


    In the last few weeks many currencies have begun to mount rallies versus the dollar. Within last few days, even the chronically weak Japanese Yen, has rallied versus the U.S. dollar.


    Why has the dollar rally begun to unravel? It is because interest rate differentials between the dollar and other currencies may be nearing a peak differential. U.S. short-term interest rates have been rising for quite a while and yesterday the Federal Reserve raised them again. This is compared to the interest rates of most other currencies, which have been kept fairly flat. Therefore, the interest rate differential between the U.S. dollar and other foreign currencies continued to grow.


    THE CARRY TRADE


    An old game in the global bond and currency markets is the carry trade. In the carry trade, the speculator borrows large quantities of money in one currency with a low interest rate and invests that money in a currency with a much higher interest rate.


    For example: If you borrowed $1 billion of Japanese Yen and invested that $1 billion in U.S. T-bills a year ago you would have made an interest differential of about 2%. Many speculators piled into carry trades like this, forcing the Yen down and the U.S. dollar up.


    Now however, many countries are enjoying more economic growth, which is causing inflation to perk up in their currencies. In reaction, the European Central Bank and others are beginning to raise rates to combat inflation. It is anticipated that the U.S. will raise the Fed Funds Rate a maximum of 2 or 3 more times in the next few months. Most speculators believe that after May at the latest, and possibly in February, the Fed may be through raising rates for some time. This will give other currencies a chance for their interest rates to catch up with U.S. rates, and should attract buyers to their currencies.


    The markets are discounting the probability of this occurrence.


    WHEN THE MARKETS SEE THE END OF U.S. RATE INCREASES THEY BEGIN TO DISCOUNT A LOWER DOLLAR AND THAT IS WHY THE U.S. DOLLAR RALLY IS ENDING.


    We believe that the U.S. dollar will under perform most major currencies for the foreseeable future. 8)


    THIS IS GOOD FOR GOLD, WHICH OFTEN ACTS AS A SURROGATE CURRENCY. :]

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    Peter C.Schiff / Euro Pacific Capital sieht das ebenso:


    The Dollar Breaks Down


    Peter Schiff
    Dec 16, 2005


    The U.S. dollar, which has staged a counter-trend rally all year, looks like it is finally poised to resume its historic decline. Although the dollar actually weakened this year against several secondary currencies, the headlines have focused principally on its 2005 gains against its two principal rivals, the euro and the yen. However, recent reversals and technical action in both currencies strongly suggests the rally has finally exhausted itself. ;)


    Earlier this year it also appeared that the dollar's bear market rally had come to an end. However, much like a drowning man, the dollar managed to make one more lunge upwards, marginally exceeding its July peak. That head fake was a classic sucker's rally, as it emboldened dollar bulls, and caused tepid dollar bears to throw in the towel. Speculators, now overwhelmingly long the dollar, will likely add to the dollar's woes, as they rush to cut losses on losing positions, or preserve rapidly fading profits.


    The problem for those betting on dollar strength is that despite its year long rally, the fundamentals have actually deteriorated substantially. Nothing illustrates that fact better than Wednesday's release of October's record 68.9 billion dollar trade deficit, and Thursday's report that Americans hocked a record 108.6 billion dollars worth of stocks and bonds to foreign investors in order to finance it. America's unprecedented consumption binge and net accumulation of external liabilities evidences twin economic failures of historic proportions.


    The unfortunate reality is that as bad as October's record setting economic failures were, they will likely be exceeded in the months ahead. In order for America's bubble economy to continue expanding, Americans must continue spending. However, the two key elements required to achieve this, consumer goods and the means to pay for them, are both lacking. Therefore any further expansion requires Americans to import greater quantities of the former and go even deeper into debt to finance the latter.


    With the ECB now raising interest rates, and the BOJ likely to soon follow, the dollar's perceived yield advantage will quickly fade. Due to its status as the world's largest debtor nation, higher global interest rates will hit the U.S. economy harder than any other, putting further downward pressure on the dollar. However my hunch is that this time foreign central banks will not come to its rescue. If that is indeed the case, there will be no buyers for speculators to sell to, and Ben Bernanke might be calling in those helicopters sooner than he had planned. :]


    Dec 16, 2005
    Peter Schiff
    C.E.O. and Chief Global Strategist
    Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.

    Zitat

    Original von Eldorado
    David Morgan sagte auch etwas ueber Palladium.
    Ich hatte mal kurz im Palladium thread mit Hpopth ueber die Kats gesprochen. Der Grund warum man auf Platinum umgeschwenkt hat war das Norilsk damals nicht liefern konnte und 3 grosse Autohersteller sind dann auf Platinum das zur verfuegung stand von RSA und blieben dann dabei. Jetzt wo ein riesen Preisunterschied ist zwischen den beiden werden viele sparen und wieder Palladium benutzen.
    David sagte man sollte auch Palladium im Depot haben es wird enorm ansteigen sich den Platinpreis naehern.


    Ich bin schon die ganze Zeit am überleben, ob ich Palladium kaufen soll oder Minen oder Zertis. Meinungen dazu?



    Also erstmal auch 1 schönes WE! Ich seh' den Goldpreis, laut meines Kaffeesatzes (der ja bisher ganz gut als Glaskugel wegkam :D ) Ende nächsten Jahres bei ca. 650 bucks. Der HUI hält sich bei 260 was mir ein gutes Gefühl gibt, mich nicht verkauft zu haben. :]

    Zeit ist der Freund von wunderbaren Unternehmen und der Feind von mittelmäßigen Unternehmen. Warren Buffett

    If you don't mind lets talk about PAL.


    Kaufrausch


    Im ersten Anlauf auf PAL vor wenigen Wochen ging es gleich Bergab und mit -7% liess ich die wieder sausen da es Zeit fuer PM Aktien waren.
    Bei meinem Glueck, :( ging PAL dann sofort rauf und fiel auch wieder am Freitag so das ich den neuen Einstieg am Montag mache.,
    Ich nutze die charttechnische Korrektur und probiere mein Glueck zum letzten mal mit PAL.


    Dann schau ma mal ! :D



    Gruss


    Eldo

    Hallo Eldo,


    danke für den Chart! :) Bei Deinem "Glück" sollte ich vielleicht lieber erst kaufen, wenn Du die am Montag gekaufen Papiere wieder verkaufst. :D


    Ok, ernsthaft: Ich werde noch auf eine großzügigere Bodenbildung (Bodenhaftung) warten, denn mein Kaffeesatz sagt mir, dass da noch südwärtige Korrekturen möglich sind. Ich tippe auf 7.0 und kaufe dann. Was wäre denn Deiner Meinung nach besser: Minen, Atome oder Zertis?


    Schöne Grüße,


    KR

    Zeit ist der Freund von wunderbaren Unternehmen und der Feind von mittelmäßigen Unternehmen. Warren Buffett

    Lustiges Video Vanescent ;)


    Anyway....


    Feel like going fishing for gold and silver?
    Frank A Lechner


    Be cautious, you could get wet. Give it until after the first of the year to determine direction. For now, the market is going to be very volatile and probably heading down as traders do the profit taking thing.


    The seasonal tendency for gold to move forward through this time of year is certainly evident once again. While stocks and bonds here in the US are having a very difficult time determining direction, gold has moved to new highs for the move around $540. Having gotten way ahead of itself, it is back around $505. We could easily see a correction back to the $475 levels. :( The time is not ripe for an all out shouting match in the gold pits, that day will come later when the retailers arrive to purchase gold. Silver too has been putting in solid gains, now painting $9 per ounce, and then pulling back again. These are significant, but not of the stature of Platinum + $1000 and Copper of + $2 a pound.


    Not only is this exciting for the physical holders, but it can really set the tone for the rest of your portfolio. This is why I have been pushing physical purchases since 2000. Paper is paper, and physical is real. If we need to remember one thing, it is simply PAPER IS BASED ON THE PHYSICAL.


    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/lechner121705.html

    3 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Eldorado ()

    Mein Einstieg war so bei 6.30$ und da warte ich erst einmal ab was da läuft, Mit Zertis habe ich Palladium weiter abgedeckt zum pysischen Bestand.So kurz vor dem vorläufigen Hoch habe ich 50% der Zertis verkauft, um so den Zinsverlust zu kompensieren.Denke das Palladium noch bis 400 hoch laufen kann, dort ist wieder mit Wiederständen zurechnen.


    gruss hpoth



    Übrigens lieben die Chinesinnen Palladium

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    Ein interessanter Chart von L.Lindgren in SinclairsMineSet:


    Seine Schlußfolgerungen im Textteil unten rechts: :]
    (Die ich teile)


    Adventsgrüsse


    L.Lindgren,NEM + HUI

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    Prof.Jeff Kern, mit seinem schwer nachvollziehbarem Tradesystem,ist wieder 100% investiert in USERX.


    Short term "scalp"


    ..."On Wednesday (12/14/05), the gold stocks were in the midst of their 4th consecutive day down, USERX was falling below 9.86, and prices were going to close with a touch of the 16-20 index support. THAT WAS MY BUY SPOT AND I RE-ENTERED 100% LONG at 9.72...

    GOLD MINING SHARES BULL MARKET PATTERN


    By Adrian Douglas


    The HUI has displayed a very distinct pattern so far in its bull market to date. Take a look at the graph of the HUI from January 2000, shown below.


    There have been three major uplegs shown in green. After each upleg the HUI trades sideways in a consolidation pattern which can be broadly characterized by a box. The top of the box is set by the highest point reached in the preceding upleg. What has happened in the first two consolidations is that the HUI only breaks-out from the box after challenging the top of the box resistance (defined as coming within 3% of the top of the box) three times. The initial peak is numbered 1, and the consecutive challenges are 2, 3 and 4. Break-out is the 4th attempt which is successful.


    You will notice that these consolidations have become longer. The first in 2001 lasted 258 days, the second in 2002 lasted 420 days, the current consolidation has lasted 720 days. This sideways grinding demoralizes the equity investors and the longer it lasts the more demoralized they feel. From a contrarian point of view this is likely why each upleg is also progressively bigger. Now what is interesting is that in the current consolidation we have challenged the top resistance line on three occasions and the last attempt labeled #4 has broken out to 259.96 as of Friday Dec 16, 2005. This is above the Dec 1, 2003 high of 255.59 which defines the top resistance.


    If this pattern is to continue then the HUI is likely to display a very strong and prolonged upleg from here. If the increasing magnitude of each upleg also continues we could possibly see HUI 410 before the next consolidation.


    No one holds a crystal ball of the future. All we can do is look for clues in past data and try to use this along with fundamentals to make projections. Many analysts have turned bearish to neutral on the mining sector recently. Gold has moved into uncharted territories because is has not remained this long above $500 for over 24 years. Yet despite some bullish long term predictions appearing in the press everyone, in the short term, is trying to find reasons why gold must correct to the mid 400’s. This I would take as short term bullish and may support what my analysis of the HUI patterns is telling me.


    Adrian Douglas

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    "If the increasing magnitude of each upleg also continues we could possibly see HUI 410 before the next consolidation."


    If !!
    Dann wollen wir mal das Beste hoffen. 8)

    Hi Folks,



    Vorschlag zurückgebliebene Palladium-Aktie


    Pan Palladium WKN: 541301


    Könnte demnächst abheben

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    Wer nicht an sich arbeitet ist wie ein elendes Stück Holz im Ozean
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    Samael Aun Weor

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    Phoenix14
    Danke für den Tip !


    @All
    Bitte bei ähnlichen Fälle Aktien oder andere Wertpapiere in die entsprechenden
    Foren/Themen reinstellen,möglichst mit Angabe der Kürzel der Heimatbörse.


    Grüsse
    Edel Man

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A