Es lag in der Luft...
Es war zu erwarten, dass die Gnomen, wie sie Bill Cara in einem seiner Kommentare von heute bezeichnet, mal wieder zuschlagen würden.
Und es hätte genausogut gestern oder morgen sein können.
The Gnomes are shaking out weak hands
Whenever geopolitical news, hype and rhetoric get cranked up, an interesting phenomenon occurs. Traders who make decisions based on emotion – the ones called “the weak hands” – find themselves being played by the Gnomes.
The Gnomes are players with market smarts, who hold the best possible info, and talk within their own circles, like for example when the Chairman of Citigroup gets on the phone with a particular Saudi prince who holds effective control of that financial institution.
These people trade securities and contracts on physicals with a stone cold demeanour. Collectively, these are the people who spin the Little People. Not directly mind you – they have thousands of employees and contractors who do it for them.
But these are the major players.
They do have a problem. You see, scale works two ways: When you are tiny, you need it. But when you are a Gnome, it’s almost impossible to move huge positions without some element of deception at work.
So, often, when a price move seems unexplainable, it is the Gnomes at work.
Today, there is no reason for the losing groups to be down on the day, certainly not to the extent they are. But if the Gnomes didn’t make the Little People climb a rising market on a “wall of worry”, trading would be simple. Too easy.
So there will always be days like this (in gold and oil today) where the Little People get their chains yanked by the Gnomes.
But, remember; you are the traders who are able to be nimble. You don’t need to be deceptive – just recognize the signs. And act on it.
Gold is in a long-term (primary) bull phase. So, if, as, and when other traders want to throw away their gold, just ask yourself a simple question: “Is it going to be gold or General Motors and the USD that I’m going to put my faith in?”
At this point in time – not always – the answer is obvious.
So don’t be one of those weak hands that the ultra-rich and powerful will spin like a top to get richer and more powerful. Hang in with gold, and oil.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 7, 2006 10:57:14 AM