Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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June 4 - Gold $390.60 up $2.90 - Silver $5.78 up 7 cents

Today Was The Turnaround Day

Zitat

"The world has no room for cowards. We must all be ready somehow to toil, to suffer, to die. And yours is not the less noble because no drum beats before you when you go out into your daily battlefields, and no crowds shout about your coming when you return from your daily victory or defeat." --Robert Lewis Stevenson

The US jobs number came in perfectly for The Working Group on Financial Markets, not too hot, not too cold. Just what the doctor and Wall Street ordered:

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers added 248,000 workers to payrolls in May, more than forecast, helped by the biggest gain in manufacturing employment in almost six years. The economy has now recouped all the jobs lost since the recession ended in November 2001. The unemployment rate held at 5.6 percent.
The increase follows revised gains of 346,000 jobs in April and 353,000 in March that were larger than estimated last month, the Labor Department said in Washington. Manufacturing employment rose the most since August 1998 and hours worked at factories were the highest since October 2000. Service and construction employment rose. –END-

Of course, the upwardly revised back numbers gets the Bush Administration closer to the new jobs number they are looking for come election time. Whether these numbers are bogus, or not, I shall leave to others to dissect. However, the currency traders were not very impressed. The dollar fell .41 to 88.59. The euro gained .73 to 122.86. The Canadian dollar (74.03, up .62) and Aussie dollar (69.47, up .73) were particularly strong. The 30-year fell gave up a half point on the day after running up a bit early on.

Panicky gold longs dumped their position right after the jobs number was released and gold fell all the way down to $383.70. Morgan Stanley was an early seller and then turned aggressive buyer when gold firmed up very quickly following the opening deluge of selling. The reversal close gives gold a healthy outlook for next week. The close back above $390 was also very constructive.

Some good news to report on the fundamental front. One of our better dealer sources reports a robust physical market. Premiums are the highest since the Y2K buying binge of years back. They are running 1 ¼ to 1 ½ percent from refiners. He used to be able to buy gold at a discount to spot. No more. Even with these premiums many refiners are reluctant to part with the bullion inventories in anticipation of higher prices in the weeks ahead. The market is that tight and the boys and girls refining gold know it.

One other unusual comment from this dealer – a rare one –which sounds more like me than a conservative man who is 70. He says the people he speaks to are coming to the realization that the markets are "phony." Not just gold, but all the markets. The rank and file have become very wary of anything coming out of Washington and Wall Street.

The gold open interest finally rose - to 226,553, up 1,220 contracts.

Gold finally accompanied the euro higher. For the past week there was no correlation at all to the dollar. Gold only moved within the dictates of what The Gold Cartel wanted it to do. Note:

June dollar
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/64

August gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/84

Your fellow Café member Richard has it nailed when it comes to gold market analysis:

Now I get it! when oil was at $40-$42--there was systemic risk-so the Cabal came down so hard that they even abrogated the weak dollar strong gold link--now that the totally fabricated job number-with 2 upward revisions is out--and the stock mkt isn't at risk to crash-the $/gold link is reinstated--so gold will be allowed to rise a bit here--but within the prison confines set by the Cabal.

FLASH! STOP THE PRESSES!

Birth/death model accounted for 190K of the new jobs today--has to do with new businesses created-old businesses closing.

-END-

Silver dropped a quick dime on the jobs news, however, it came back even more quickly than gold did, moving up on the day in short order. Hard for me seeing silver staying down here much longer. Then again, I have said that before.

The silver open interest fell 2049 contracts. It probably tells us spec longs exited who have been long all the way up above $8 and all the way down again and just couldn’t take it any longer.

The Comex warehouse stocks rose close to 200,000 ounces.

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The John Brimelow Report

India buying; Where are specs?

Friday, June 04, 2004

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $ 7.38, PM $7.75, with world gold at $ 388.30 and $387.60. High: very ample for legal imports. The rupee closed at its highest for almost a month today. Notwithstanding the season, India will be on active buyer on this basis.

Softness in the yen this morning did not appear to interest the TOCOM gold futures buyers: volume slumped 67% to equal only 12,580 Comex lots, and open interest slipped the equivalent of 320 Comex. The active contract closed down 9 yen, although world gold stood 50c higher than the NY close at trading’s end. The Trade House short, reported by TOCOM with a one day lag, is now the highest in many months. Often this is taken as the reciprocal of the Spec long. However, in view of the erratic fluctuations in volume, one wonders if sporadic trading on TOCOM by Western Funds is somehow involved.

Yesterday, of course, saw NY gold erase an initial rally attempt and be smashed down to a new closing low, for the third day in succession. While some observers continue to mention an Australian seller, there is clearly the feeling that opportunistic and predatory sellers have appeared, and have had some success in evicting longs. Also, that physical buyers have returned. UBS comments:

"In New York yesterday gold opened around $391.50 …But then heavy selling of the AUD saw gold come under pressure…In thin volume, one US Investment bank was able to push gold below support of 390.00 and stops were triggered and traded to a low of 387.45 75. Good scale down buying by European banks and commission houses supported the yellow metal from falling further." (JB emphasis)

Standard London echoes:

Gold opened in TOCOM at 391.50 bid and briefly touched an early high of 391.70 bid and was quickly under pressure …the Australian currency was quickly losing ground against the US dollar. Gold was quickly pressing against near term support of 390 and physical off take kept gold treading water…. COMEX gold started…firm …traded to the day’s high of 392.60 bid before good-sized selling in the market just as the US dollar made moderate advances... The market was further pressured by long liquidation …gold tumbled to the day’s low of 387.90 offer after hitting some stops building below 390."

In retrospect, when last the Indian premiums were extreme, at the mid May lows, a good deal of shorting occurred in NY. Perhaps this has happened again. Refco is unquestionably right in identifying a notable structural weakness in recent rally attempts:

"Our concern for gold is focused on speculative buying interest; in particular the lack of it. Declining open interest into recent price declines suggests spec short covering is giving way to some long liquidation"

But gold has an alternative champion in Eastern physical off take. The Western Bulls, when eventually tempted in, could buy a huge amount -approaching 300 tonnes – of Comex paper, if they chose to return to the recent high exposure.

JB

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

With supposedly superb job news, the US stock market action was disappointing. It even closed lower than where it opened. Throw in positive news from Intel after the close last evening and the action was particularly poor. The DOW gained 47 to 10,243 and the DOG rose 18 to 1978.

One reason there is little follow through on stock market rallies:

June 2, 2004

According to the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, corporate insider have been selling stock at a furious pace throughout 2004. Fourteen billion dollars worth in the first four quarters. David Coleman states that insider sales have NEVER been higher, since the company started tracking the data in 1971.

Crude oil fell 79 cents per barrel to $38.49.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed's "Desk" was closed today June 4th 2004. Due to a $2 Billion expiration, the repo pool fell a bit to $36.85 Billion. The 30-day moving average of the repo pool remains in its long up-slope, providing gentle support to the DOW. The DOW sits near 10,200 right along with its own 30-day ma, acting quite content ahead of what everybody says is a "certain" 25 basis point rate rise by the Fed at the June 29th meeting. The DOW may be the only smooth operation the Fed has these days.

An interesting M1 money stock Fed chart can be found below:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1/25

It reveals that the Fed poured about $130 Billion into the markets just after 9/11/2001 in order to float the banking system which had been damaged by the inability to deliver checks via air since aircraft were grounded.

Another interesting thing here are the three ongoing M1 money stock spikes in 2004 which seem to correspond to the oil price swings we are experiencing. Based only on the realities of these two events, we can imagine the Fed is under great stress these days due to oil and the upcoming rate rise. But the Fed has BEEN under stress ever since an event late in 2002.

Big Bang

The Big Bang of today's monetary universe began when SECTREAS Paul O'Neill resigned without a replacement. Everything we see today is a direct result of that cataclysmic action. Resigned? No sane President would terminate a Secretary of the Treasury, losing the ESF's power, thus leaving the country naked on the gold and currency exchange battlefield...and yet that is exactly what George Bush did.

On that fateful day in Dec 2002 the dollar and Euro were at parity. Gold then shot straight up until the day John Snow was confirmed because with no SECTREAS the ESF's gold operations could not Constitutionally be implemented. The DIVG topped 362, the Euro ran up over 28%, gold over 30% while the major currency dollar index fell 12.6%. As soon as Snow arrived the indexes retracted a bit but they never really recovered. It was a disaster of the first magnitude from the Fed's point of view.

The Fed now faces a rate rise regime on top of all their other troubles. A single trading house (JPMorgan) with over $27 Trillion in notional interest rate derivatives. We can imagine that very few of those contracts are "long".

No doubt the Fed will hammer gold in order to "send a message" not to go there. During that "message" phase will be the exact moment in time to buy the metal.

Mike

Houston’s Dan Norcini with the COT analysis:

Commitments of Traders Analysis for week ending 6-5-2004

Examining this week’s latest release of the Commitments of Traders data contains a bit of a surprise. Looks like I could not have been more wrong in my assessment in last week’s commentary regarding the low point in the total number of commercial shorts being behind us. They continued to shed some 1,196 short contracts and were net buyers for the week. I will say however that the rate of their reduction in short positions has slowed considerably. Here are the numbers detailing the short positions held by the cartel beginning with the peak reached on April 6, 2004:

4/6/2004... 243,320

4/12/2004... 239,183

4/20/2004... 182,891

4/27/2004... 168,845

5/4/2004... 161,564

5/11/2004... 153,147

5/18/2004... 144,769

5/25/2004... 138,156

6/1/2004... 136,960

I still feel we are very close to seeing the end of cartel short liquidation. It is simply against their motif operandi to sit back and allow gold to rally without intervening. With open interest falling this week, I could not understand the price capping near $400 that obviously took place. That kind of selling in the face of clear technical buy signals seemed to me to have the trademark of the gold cartel written all over it. My question has been – If not them doing the selling – then whom?

I had ruled out the funds since in all the years I have been trading, I have NEVER seen the funds mass on the opposite side of such clear technical signals as gold had generated last week. Technical indicators all turned over from deeply oversold regions and had generated mechanical buy signals; for the technically based funds to be selling would be an anomaly of the highest degree. As a matter of fact, I was sure that the funds were covering shorts as well as adding new longs since the 10 Day, 20 Day and 40 Day Moving Averages had been violated to the upside these past weeks. That is normally enough to shove the funds out and force them to begin to cover or at least stop selling. Still, I could not confirm that until today’s release when the mystery became clear.

It needed some substantial firepower to offset that fund buying of the last week which all totaled was an amazing 9,774 contracts, 8,194 of which were shorts that were covered. We got that firepower from the commercial category alright – but it was from the commercial longs, not the cartel. That explains the continued drop in open interest. Selling by the commercial long category absorbed THE ENTIRETY of net buying that took place this week. When I say entirety, I mean, "entirety" – new fund longs; old fund shorts that were covered; cartel shorts that were covered and small spec shorts that were covered! All of it – a grand total of 12,316 commercial longs were closed out.

I remarked last week that the commercial longs had amassed the greatest number of long positions that they have held in more than 2 ½ years. Many of those longs were being added as the market headed down from 425 beginning back in early April with the bulk of them being added as gold dropped beneath 385 and headed down to the 370 region. This group of traders apparently decided that $20 - $25 profits on those longs was a pretty nice gift and apparently unloaded this past week as gold moved up. They are still sitting on a fairly sizeable number of longs even with the selling they did through Tuesday of this week and thus are a force to contend with should they continue to liquidate. I would expect them to stop selling if gold were to descend much further since that is the region where they did their heaviest buying in the past few weeks. What is more likely to take place is that they continue their scale up selling program gradually reducing their longs as the market moves up. That is the professional manner of covering positions – notice that they are doing it into strength in gold unlike the cartel which had a recent habit of making it quite obvious that they were going to sell in quantity when they decided a take down job on gold was necessary.

This in conjunction with expected capping action from the cartel tells me that we most definitely need to see open interest totals increase in the weeks ahead. Falling open interest in a market is not a healthy sign as it indicates a lack of enthusiasm. To generate any sizeable and sustainable price rally in gold, we will need to see the specs begin to re-enter on the long side and the fund shorts to continue to exit. What is most encouraging to us gold bulls however is that the funds have ample room to pour onto the long side again as do the small specs who more than likely will be chasing the market higher as is their habit. Still, we need them to offset commercial selling that is inevitable.

The kicker however is that open interest has continued to decline as gold has moved down since Tuesday this week. We have seen a reduction of more than 26,000 contracts bringing us down to 226,553 as of yesterday - levels last seen in August 2003. It would appear that some speculators have grown discouraged with gold’s relatively lackluster performance given current supportive fundamentals. These frustrated specs and momentum funds then trot off looking for greener pastures in which to play, draining liquidity and siphoning off the capital necessary to generate bullish enthusiasm. While they are busy chasing coffee or some other commodity du jour, gold is left to languish. Of course that is exactly the game plan by the financial powers that be. Beat the dickens out of the yellow metal and then trot out their shills do decry its lackluster performance as evidence that all is well with the economy and those gold bugs and their cries of "the sky is falling" are nothing but demented madmen and women. Once that is done, the illusion can continue and it’s let the good times roll. The question is, "what will they do when the gig is up"?

Today’s action however in gold appears to have a chance to change all that and might signal renewed spec interest is in the cards. The swift reaction away from support near 385 in spite of a "dollar bullish" jobs report, bodes very well for gold next week. Now that the jobs report is out of the way, the next event the market can look forward to will be the FOMC meeting at the end of June. I am of the opinion that for the dollar to get any kind of sustained bounce, the Fed will need to surprise the market with a 50 basis point rate hike; something I am convinced they will not do. As a matter of fact, I do not expect them to hike at all. Obviously that cuts across the grain of thinking that is currently dominating most analysts but I feel that until the Fed gets proof that crude oil prices are coming down and STAYING DOWN, they will not risk upsetting the apple cart. Regardless, we shall see.

The point is that the market has already discounted a rate hike of 25 basis points into the dollar. Traders typically, "Buy the rumor and sell the fact". If the Fed does indeed hike at the end of the month, the dollar might get a momentary knee jerk bid upward, but I do not expect that to last very long. Thus, any obstacle in the path of gold moving higher should quickly disappear once we are through with this idiocy of hanging on every word that comes out of the FOMC transcript. It is become personally sickening to me to observe grown adults sitting with their fingers on a "enter" key ready to slap their buy or sell orders over the internet as soon as Chairman Greenspan or his lackeys serve up the latest fodder. One would think that successful traders and investors would do some study and analysis of their own and not be so easily led around like blind, dumb sheep by those with questionable motives. Of course in today’s America, that is asking too much. Talk about a group of lemmings.

Dan Norcini
dnorcini@earthlink.net

Gold sales up 21% in India

Speaking of India:

Dear Bill,

As I was expecting rebound yesterday around closing time which didn't happen but I am happy that this time I saw clear weakness in metals for Wednesday and Thursday but I didn't wanted investors to loss opportunity of weak prices in metal and its stocks that is why I sent alert news to buy on Thursday. I am sure those who have bought on Thursday must be smiling now but according to me, for big smiling time is pending for metal investors, which is starting from next week.

Now finally after great struggle of 2 months gold will start new journey from next week. As I said that next week looks exciting and yes, I am sure my next week newsletter will be most exciting one. From here now not looking back for next 27 Day.

This week newsletter recommended orange juice and currently ORANGE JUICE IS DOING FINE.

Thanks & God Bless

Mahendra

http://www.mahendraprophecy.com

Mahenda got his reversal with his first inclination it be today was dead on. Now, if he is right about gold taking out $400 next week…that would be loverlie!

For you Ferdi Lips fans – his speech in Tokyo:

Tokyo Speech.pdf

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/Tokyo.pdf

China input:

If anyone really believes the 'fluff' that China is slowing down better think again.

From a piece in today's People's Daily (China) Online - "Statistics showed that 50 million air conditioners, 65 million TV sets, and 23 million refrigerators were manufactured in China in 2003, and most of the products were sold in the domestic market." Can you imagine how many cars these folks are going to be driving soon? God help us all if they become fond of SUV's? Unbelievable - the goon squad keeps telling anyone who will listen that oil is always going to be imminently 10 bucks cheaper? Anyone accusing me of saying the glass is half empty - I give up, you got me! Perhaps we should focus on the bright side of things - we will all soon be able to buy a 'knock off' Lincoln Navigator for less than 5 g's. The tricky part will be 300 dollar fill ups when you are unemployed or working for minimum wage at Walmart. Bummer.

best
Rob

Something to ponder on oil AND silver:

Bill,

As I have been watching your daily blog and seeing more attention to oil both in your forum and others I am further convinced that our free market interests for commodities and indeed for predicting the capitulation of all these Wall street commodity scams will be best determined by study of the most important commodity of all – oil. It is after all the commodity on which our entire way of life and its associated assets are valued - from Real Estate and Income to Stocks and Bonds. At the moment the average joe is convinced this way of life is secure – so the metals are in the toilet.

We have all discussed before and concluded that this scam to end all scams will finally come to an end with a default in the critical commodities. As we know this reality is almost upon us with silver (perhaps even months away) – the point when above ground stocks available to the market come to an end, and then because of the ongoing supply demand deficit…….

“Everyone who wants or needs Silver must do with less - coz supply just ain’t there anymore to meet demand at the same rate”.

At this juncture in world history I am fascinated that in fact the detailed study of Peak Oil production is placing it in exactly the same position as that in Silver. “How’s that you say – there is heaps of Oil left but I do agree above ground silver is almost gone?”

The graph below is the product of ASPO research and includes oil and gas. It clearly shows that as soon as we peak in hydrocardon production and start our irreversible decline …..

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Everyone who wants or needs Oil must do with less - coz supply just ain’t there anymore to meet demand at the same rate”.

This is conservative - there are some oil industry luminaries such as Matthew Simmons - Chariman of Simmons & Co who are voicing real concerns of a potential production collapse in Saudi Arabia of up to 30-40% within a few years! This is not factored into the above chart. Refer: http://media.globalpublicmedia…rview.CSIS.2004-02-24.ram

Remembering that these above curves are not theory any more - the bottom line is that post peak - (which may be later this year) - from which point we all must do with less oil year by year by year - and I dont mean just because it is more expensive - I mean because there is simply less of it to go around - Do you think the average joe is going to think his way of life is secure? We need only take a look back to the 70s for that answer. The problem however is that the 1970s were a dress rehursal – this time it will be the real thing!.

Our entire financial system is supported and perpetuated by the phenomenon of cheap energy which has facilitated growth beyond the imagination of many – a system which has enabled growth in debt and increase in the money supply predicated on the endless increasing supply of cheap energy and other resources. My guess is when this illusion comes crashing down the markets will run way ahead of reality and really be in deep trouble. We need only wait for constrained oil supply to be self evident and the game will be over for Wall Street and the Federal Reserve. I suspect that the Islamic Nationalists whose existing governments own a majority of the remaining oil reserves are well aware of this reality - just as they were in 1973 when US production peaked.

So I would imagine that to keep the current financial system alive as this unflods the US Government will attempt to explain away the oil supply problem with "Terrorist action", whilst continuing to pump prime the money aggregates and openly deny the depletion of the key commodity on which the system is perpetuated. All the time still attempting to wash out the metals markets to shake out the physical from unsteady hands at redicuously low prices. And why? because when this financial system crashes what do you think the next one will be based on? The machinations never end, and the rabbit hole is deep indeed.

So my guess is that Oil and Silver will be hitting the wall at just about the same time over the next year or two - so we are getting awful close to permanent liftoff in the metals markets and terminal problems for all other US markets. Its all pretty clear when you look at it from an oil perspective, and you dont even need to be Mahendra to connect the dots!

Cheers
David

The gold shares rebounded nicely to end the week on a positive note. At least, the higher cap gold stocks did. Many of the explorations and smaller golds are drifting into oblivion again. Companies like Samex Mining (65 cents, down 5 cents on the day only 60 cents bid at the close) are steals down here and nobody cares.

The XAU moved 1.69 higher to 87.87, while the HUI gained 4.48 to 193.84. At one point the HUI was close to 195 where it encountered technical resistance.

Seems to me gold and silver have done their thing on the downside. Next week ought to bring us some more smiles.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

MIDAS

Appendix

Good grief, if half of this story below is true and is the way it really is with President Bush. While off-color language is something I don’t normally permit in MIDAS commentary, the use of the "F" word in this article seems to capture the essence of what the author has found out. I even thought about not putting the entire story up (in case the story was off base, much less off color), however, if these are the whispers such as this going around the Belt Way, it won’t be long before they have some serious effect on the dollar and gold. Thus, better for you to make up your own mind that not be aware of what is circulating.

However, for new Café members, I will repeat something I mentioned a while ago about President Bush. A former head of state (in the Americas) told a Café member that Bush told him he was on a mission from God, which has me thinking this bizarre story might be right on the money. This "head of state" thought Bush’s statement was one of the oddest ones he ever heard.

One more thing for newer Café members. I am not a Democrat and am not out to bash Bush for political reasons. Au contraire. I went out of my way to be of assistance to him months after he became President by going to Austin, Texas. There, I met with two of his boyhood friends from Midland, Texas – one was the most powerful state politician in the Longhorn State. The purpose was to bring the gold manipulation issue to The President’s attention and make him aware how it might bite him down the road if not resolved properly. The meeting went well and a two page executive summary of my presentation (which I prepared upon my return to Dallas) was sent to the President on his private fax the next morning. Days later I received a letter from Lawrence Lindsey, the President’s Economic Advisor at the time, which was postmarked the same day the fax was sent.

The error in judgment I made was that Bush would be different from Clinton as far as gold was concerned. WRONG!

Bush's Erratic Behavior Worries White House Aides
By DOUG THOMPSON
Publisher, Capitol Hill Blue
Jun 4, 2004, 06:15

http://www.capitolhillblue.com…ublish/printer_4636.shtml

President George W. Bush¹s increasingly erratic behavior and wide mood swings has the halls of the West Wing buzzing lately as aides privately express growing concern over their leader¹s state of mind.

In meetings with top aides and administration officials, the President goes from quoting the Bible in one breath to obscene tantrums against the media, Democrats and others that he classifies as ³enemies of the state.²

Worried White House aides paint a portrait of a man on the edge, increasingly wary of those who disagree with him and paranoid of a public that no longer trusts his policies in Iraq or at home.

³It reminds me of the Nixon days,² says a longtime GOP political consultant with contacts in the White House. ³Everybody is an enemy; everybody is out to get him. That¹s the mood over there.²

In interviews with a number of White House staffers who were willing to talk off the record, a picture of an administration under siege has emerged, led by a man who declares his decisions to be ³God¹s will² and then tells aides to ³fuck over² anyone they consider to be an opponent of the administration.

³We¹re at war, there¹s no doubt about it. What I don¹t know anymore is just who the enemy might be,² says one troubled White House aide. ³We seem to spend more time trying to destroy John Kerry than al Qaeda and our enemies list just keeps growing and growing.²

Aides say the President gets ³hung up on minor details,² micromanaging to the extreme while ignoring the bigger picture. He will spend hours personally reviewing and approving every attack ad against his Democratic opponent and then kiss off a meeting on economic issues.

³This is what is killing us on Iraq,² one aide says. ³We lost focus. The President got hung up on the weapons of mass destruction and an unproven link to al Qaeda. We could have found other justifiable reasons for the war but the President insisted the focus stay on those two, tenuous items.²

Aides who raise questions quickly find themselves shut out of access to the President or other top advisors. Among top officials, Bush¹s inner circle is shrinking. Secretary of State Colin Powell has fallen out of favor because of his growing doubts about the administration¹s war against Iraq.

The President's abrupt dismissal of CIA Directory George Tenet Wednesday night is, aides say, an example of how he works.

"Tenet wanted to quit last year but the President got his back up and wouldn't hear of it," says an aide. "That would have been the opportune time to make a change, not in the middle of an election campaign but when the director challenged the President during the meeting Wednesday, the President cut him off by saying 'that's it George. I cannot abide disloyalty. I want your resignation and I want it now."

Tenet was allowed to resign "voluntarily" and Bush informed his shocked staff of the decision Thursday morning. One aide says the President actually described the decision as "God's will."

God may also be the reason Attorney General John Ashcroft, the administration¹s lightning rod because of his questionable actions that critics argue threatens freedoms granted by the Constitution, remains part of the power elite. West Wing staffers call Bush and Ashcroft ³the Blues Brothers² because ³they¹re on a mission from God.²

³The Attorney General is tight with the President because of religion,² says one aide. ³They both believe any action is justifiable in the name of God.²

But the President who says he rules at the behest of God can also tongue-lash those he perceives as disloyal, calling them ³fucking assholes² in front of other staff, berating one cabinet official in front of others and labeling anyone who disagrees with him ³unpatriotic² or ³anti-American.²

³The mood here is that we¹re under siege, there¹s no doubt about it,² says one troubled aide who admits he is looking for work elsewhere. ³In this administration, you don¹t have to wear a turban or speak Farsi to be an enemy of the United States. All you have to do is disagree with the President.²

The White House did not respond to requests for comment on the record.

© Copyright 2004 Capitol Hill Blue

Then, The Serious Implications Of President Bush's Hiring A Personal Outside Counsel For The Valerie Plame Investigation
By JOHN W. DEAN Click here: FindLaw's Writ - Dean: The Serious Implications Of President Bush's Hiring A Personal Outside Counsel For The Vale

-END-

Global: The Mother of All Carry Trades

Stephen Roach (New York

Everyone does it — borrow short and invest long. With the overnight lending rate well below the inflation rate, the cost of money is essentially "free" in real terms. All it takes is reinvestment anywhere else along the yield curve to make a positive return from the spread, or carry, trade. By holding the nominal federal funds rate at a 40-year low of 1%, the Federal Reserve has aided and abetted a multiplicity of carry trades — from those in the Treasury market, to high-yield and emerging-market debt, to credit instruments and mortgage securities. It’s the rage. You can’t afford to miss the carry trade — until, of course, the Fed takes away the proverbial punch bowl.

The American consumer has put on the biggest carry trade of them all. In a job- and income-short recovery, consumers have defied the fundamentals of consolidation and kept on spending. Consumption has soared to a record 71% of GDP in the past two and a half years, well in excess of the 67% share of the 1990s; moreover, during just the past year, the Y-o-Y growth rate of real consumption expenditures accelerated sharply from 2.3% in 1Q03 to 4.3% in 1Q04. Income short consumers have turned, instead, to two exogenous sources of purchasing power — a steady stream of tax cuts and the extraction of equity from their favorite asset, the home.

The asset-based impetus to consumer spending is nothing more than a huge carry trade. Taking advantage of rock-bottom interest rates, American homeowners have embarked on a record mortgage-refinancing bonanza. By some estimates, the equity extraction that has resulted from this frenzy exceeded $550 billion in 2003, or more than 6.5% of disposable personal income. I should note that this estimate is based on the simple difference between the change in mortgage debt and net investment in residential housing — a gauge that Dick Berner has criticized as a macro-analytical tool (see his August 1, 2003 essay, "Why the ‘Refi’ Bust Won’t Cripple Consumer Spending"). Notwithstanding his critique, Dick concedes that refis have been an important source of consumer purchasing power in recent years. And with good reason: The temptation of low interest rates and ever-rising property values simply proved irresistible to income-short US households. This was a sure-fire way to make ends meet in tough times.

The only catch in this sure thing is the means by which it occurs — debt. The American consumer has never — repeat, never — gone on a debt binge the likes of which has occurred in recent years. Household sector debt now exceeds 85% of GDP — an all-time high and about 20 percentage points higher than the ratio a decade ago. The common refrain to this complaint is that consumer debt ratios have always risen over time as households have become wise in the ways of sophisticated balance sheet management. Moreover, there are many who argue that consumers are being entirely rational in turning to debt in a low interest rate climate; after all, goes the logic, with rates at 40-year lows, it seems inconceivable that debt service could ever become onerous.

Think again. Debt service measures published by the Federal Reserve are already flashing warning signs. The Fed now has two official gauges of household debt burdens — a narrow measure of mortgage and installment debt payments and a broader measure of financial obligations, which also includes auto lease payments, residential rents, and homeowners’ insurance and property tax payments. Even with interest rates at 40-year lows, both of these debt burden proxies are in the upper decile of historical experience. The reason: the sheer magnitude of the stock of outstanding indebtedness.

But the "rational" consumer is widely thought to have the fallback position of what the trade calls a "long duration liability structure" — a preponderance of fixed rate indebtedness that supposedly locks in low interest rates for a longer period of time and thereby shields the indebted from the upside of the rate cycle. Think again here as well. In recent months, there has been an ominous surge in the demand for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). In May 2004, the ARMs share of the dollar volume of new mortgage originations rose to 50%, up sharply from the 20% average that had prevailed from 2001 through mid-2003. This recent rush to ARMs leaves overly indebted American consumers increasingly exposed to the upside of the interest rate cycle at just the point when the Fed is about to embark on the march to policy normalization. In other words, the American consumer has upped the ante on the carry trade at precisely the wrong point in the rate cycle. And they call that rational?

There’s one final twist to this puzzle — the possibility that carry trades lead to asset bubbles. In perpetual search of the easy returns that steep yield curves seem to guarantee and, in today’s case, returns that can be financed freely at rock-bottom short-term interest rates, investors have rushed into a host of long duration assets. In other words, the lure of the carry trade is so compelling, it creates artificial demand for "carryable" assets that has the potential to turn normal asset price appreciation into bubble-like proportions.

In my view, that’s now a perfectly legitimate concern in what is arguably America’s most important asset market — residential housing. Just-released government data on nationwide house prices are flashing distinct warning signs of just such a possibility (see Dick Berner’s, "Bubble Trouble?" in today’s Forum for a more sanguine assessment of this aspect of the problem). The so-called OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) US house price index has now increased at a 9.8% average annual rate over the past two quarters, one of the strongest two-quarter increases on record and enough to take the index up 7.7% above its year-earlier level in 1Q04. While that’s not in outright bubble territory just yet, there are some increasingly worrisome signs of such a possibility in some of America’s most important housing markets. That’s especially the case in California, which contains approximately 20% of the nation’s housing stock by value; according to the latest OFHEO sample, home prices in the Golden State stood 13.9% above their year-earlier level in 1Q04. In the tri-state New York area, Y-o-Y house price inflation averaged 10% in the most recent period. And these numbers, of course, pale in comparison to what you hear on the bi-coastal cocktail circuit.

The problem with asset bubbles in an overly indebted economy is that they are a recipe for disaster. Think back a mere four years ago — bubbles always pop. But the real threat is the popping of the levered bubble. Therein lies the biggest risk of all for today’s overly-indebted, income- and saving-short American consumers. If they lose the asset-based underpinning of the carry trade, it could finally be game over.

I will be the first to concede that this is Old Macro — in other words, it’s based on a theory that has been dead wrong for the past year and a half. But in retrospect, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why consumers have kept spending. It’s Washington, stupid — the most powerful combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus in modern history. Consumers have been well trained to pounce on such opportunities. Ever since they discovered the sheer ecstasy of the wealth effect in the late 1990s, American households have refused to live within their means, as those means are delineated by what they earn on their jobs. Instead, consumers have repeatedly gone to the Fountain of Youth and, courtesy of an overly generous central bank, freely monetized purchasing power from an increasingly over-valued asset. This strategy has worked so brilliantly in recent years that American consumers have now thrown all caution to the wind and opted for floating-rate liabilities at precisely the wrong time — just when the interest rate cycle is about to turn.

History tells us that carry trades end when central bank tightening cycles begin. The Fed knows full well what’s at risk in the biggest carry trade of them all. Little wonder the US central bank wants to be "measured" in normalizing its policy rate. In my jaundiced view, it will take nothing short of a miracle to extricate the self-indulgent American consumer from this mess.

-END-

Silber Bugs!

Ich glaube es wird Zeit den Kühlschrank, die Waschmaschine, und die Klima Anlage zu wechseln.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.manilatimes.net/images2/runners/runner.gif]

http://www.manilatimes.net/nat…ey/life/20040605lif1.html

Saturday, June 05, 2004

A silver lining in home appliances

THAT old chestnut about silver being a potent weapon against monsters has just received a 21st Century update.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.manilatimes.net/nat…/05/yehey/images/life.jpg]

Samsung uses nano-sized silver ions to coat its new line of refrigerators, washing machines and air-conditioners

Samsung’s new line of home appliances uses nano-sized silver ions—positively charged silver particles 75,000 times smaller than the width of a human hair—to zap disease-causing molds, germs and bacteria. Not only does the nano size (nanotechnology deals with atomic particles measured in billionths of a meter) allow the silver ions to easily penetrate the cells of microorganisms, but the positive charge increases surface area and draws negatively charged elements toward them to greater effect.

This “Silver Nano” technology is available in four Samsung’s home appliances launched last week: the HA-1435A washing machine, the AS-24S6GB air conditioner, and two side-by-side refrigerators, namely the stainless steel RS-23JGRS and the mirror finish RS-21DLMR.

The nano-sized silver ions are used to coat refrigerator interiors, air-conditioner filters and washing machine tubs. The silver coating keeps food fresh 15 days longer than average and makes the refrigerator resistant to odor-causing bacteria. Air-conditioner filters treated with silver ions stop the growth of fungi and bacteria inside the air-conditioner, as well as reduce the presence of bacteria in the air within five minutes of operation. In washing machine tubs, meanwhile, the silver ion coating kills bacteria and fungi in soiled laundry.

The silver-ion technology is the product of an extensive three-year study in Korea involving a team of 30 electronic experts and over $10 million invested in research and development.

The antibiotic and disinfectant properties of silver have long been documented by modern science. Silver has been found to be toxic to pathogens yet harmless to humans, food and fabrics. NASA, as well as most major airlines, uses silver filters to guard against water-borne diseases.

Warren

Silber ist in den Anwendungsmöglichkeiten bei weitem nicht ausgereizt.

Es kommen ständig immer neue Anwendungsgebiete dazu.
Silber in der Medizin mehr angewandt, wäre ein riesiger Vorteil für die allgemeine Gesundheit der Bevölkerung. Man denke da nur etwa an kolloidales Silber, das getrunken wird, und in der Lage ist, bei richtiger Zubereitung, und Darreichung, ohne Nebenwirkungen, eine fast unbegrenzte Anzahl von Erkrankungen, speziell auch chronische schwer zu behandelnde Erkrankungen des Verdauungstraktes, hervorgerufen durch Bakterien, und Pilze zu heilen. Im Gegensatz zu Antibiotikas, wirkt kolloidales Silber sogar gegen viele Viruserkrankungen. Die Wirkung von KSilber erstreckt sich aber bei weiten nicht nur auf Erkrankungen des Magen Darmtraktes.

http://www.universelle-lehre.de/sil.htm

Da Silber (kolloidal) jedoch extrem billig in der Anwendung ist, wird es praktisch nicht weiter erforscht, und schon gar nicht darüber geschrieben, höchstens mal negativ, wegen den vielen schwarzen Schafen im Internet, die zum grossen Teil unsachgemäss hergestelltes kolloidales Silber meistens noch zu total überhöhten Preisen anbieten, obwohl man KSilber sehr billig zuhause selber herstellen kann.

Dass SAMSUNG jetzt beginnt Kühlschränke, Klimaanlagen, und Waschmaschienen mit Nano Silber Partikel zu beschichten, kommt ja sicher nicht von ungefähr. Genauso wie Du mit Deinen Ohrringen gute Erfahrungen gemacht hast, werden moderne Hausfrauen mit dieser neuen Generation Haushaltsgeräte gute Erfahrungen machen.

Wenn die europäischen Regierung endlich die Anwendung von KSilber in der Medizin gutheissen, und empfehlen würde, könnten Milliarden Summen für teure Medikamente und Arztbesuche eingespart werden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.deam.de/images/header-t.gif]

http://www.deam.de/verfa/00117.htm

Kolloidales Silber in der Therapie

Kolloidales Silber

EINLEITUNG

"Jede Art von Pilz, Virus, Bakterium, Streptokokken, Staphylokokken und anderen pathogenen Organismen wird in drei bis vier Minuten abgetötet. Tatsächlich ist kein Bakterium bekannt, das nicht durch kolloidales Silber innerhalb von höchstens sechs Minuten eliminiert wird, bei einer Konzentration von nur fünf Milligramm pro Liter (ppm). Und selbst bei hohen Konzentrationen gibt es keine Nebenwirkungen."

Health Consciousness, Vol. 15, 4

"Es steht nicht in Konflikt mit irgendeiner anderen Medikation und führt auch nicht zu Magenbeschwerden. Tatsächlich ist es eine Verdauungshilfe. Es brennt nicht in den Augen. Medizinjournal-Berichte und dokumentierte Studien der letzten hundert Jahre sprechen von keinen Nebenwirkungen durch oral oder intravenös verabreichtes Silberkolloid, weder bei Tieren, noch bei Menschen. Es wurde mit hervorragenden Ergebnissen bei hochakuten Gesundheitsproblemen eingesetzt. Ohne übertreiben zu wollen: Es ist an der Zeit, kolloidales Silber nicht nur als sicherste, sondern auch als wirksamste Medizin der Welt anzuerkennen."

Perceptions Magazine (Auszug)

Von der amerikanische FDA (Food & Drug Administration) wird kolloidales Silber als Naturheilmittel angesehen.

WIEDERERWACHEN DER KOLLOIDFORSCHUNG

Um die Jahrhundertwende gelang Wissenschaftlern ein bedeutender Durchbruch in der Medizin:

Die wichtigsten Körperflüssigkeiten (Blut, Lymphflüssigkeit) sind Kolloide

Diese Erkenntnis eröffnete unbegrenzte Möglichkeiten und führte zu raschen Fortschritten bei medizinischen Behandlungen. Doch das weitaus gewinnträchtigere Geschäft der Pharmaindustrie mit synthetisierten Antibiotika brachte den Siegeszug der Kolloidforschung zu einem verfrühten Halt.

Die heutige Krise im Gesundheitswesen und die immer weiter abnehmende Wirksamkeit von Antibiotika lenkt den Blick zurück auf die Kolloide - insbesondere auf die extrem vielseitigen Anwendungsmöglichkeiten von kolloidalem Silber. Antibiotikaresistente Erreger lösen in den Vereinigten Staaten ganze Epidemien aus. So absurd es klingt - die dritthäufigste Krankheits- und Todesursache in den Vereinigten Staaten ist heute wieder die Infektionskrankheit.

WAS IST KOLLOIDALES SILBER ?

Wissenschaftlich spricht man dann von einem kolloidalen System, wenn drei Bedingungen erfüllt sind:

Es müssen unterschiedliche Bestandteile vorliegen, wie z.B. Silber und Wasser.

Die Bestandteile müssen unterschiedlichen Phasen angehören, wie z.B. flüssig/fest oder gasförmig/flüssig.

Die Partikel dürfen nicht löslich sein.

Demnach sind Kolloide heterogen, multiphasisch und unlöslich.

Kolloide sind die kleinsten Teilchen, in die Materie zerlegt werden kann, ohne die individuellen Eigenschaften zu verlieren. Die nächste Stufe der Zerkleinerung wäre das Atom selbst. Diese Partikel befinden sich in destilliertem Wasser und tragen eine elektrische Ladung. Da sich gleiche Ladungen abstoßen, halten sich die Teilchen gegenseitig in der Schwebe. Diese positive Ladung geht allerdings wie bei einer Batterie mit der Zeit - vor allem durch Lichteinfluss - verloren. Deshalb sollte kolloidales Silber immer lichtgeschützt aufbewahrt werden. Am wirkungsvollsten ist kolloidales Silber in einem Zeitraum von drei Monaten nach der Produktion. Ältere Produkte verlieren schnell ihre hohe Wirksamkeit.

Durch das Zerkleinern in mikroskopisch kleine Teilchen wird die Gesamtoberfläche enorm vergrößert und damit auch die Wirkung. Außerdem wird auch die Möglichkeit, in den Körper einzudringen und selbst an entlegene Stellen zu gelangen, enorm verbessert.

Ganz besonders interessant sind Silberkolloide, da das Edelmetall Silber der beste, natürliche Stromleiter ist.

WIE WIRKT KOLLOIDALES SILBER ?

Das kolloidale Silber wirkt als Katalysator, dessen Hauptfunktion die Strukturierung von Körperflüssigkeit (Wasser) ist. Der Körper kann dieses hoch strukturierte Wasser verwenden, um viele Aufgaben im Körper zu erfüllen.

Die Wirkung des kolloidalen Silbers scheint vor allem -nach dem heutigen Stand der Forschung- auf die Frequenz des magnetischem Feldes der Silberatomgruppen zurückzuführen zu sein, das sich um die Silberpartikel entwickelt.

Die im kolloidalen Silberwasser vorhandene " Brownsche Bewegung " d.h. das kollektive magnetische Feld der kolloidalen silbernen Partikel, hat mehrere Wirkungen.

Die Mikrokolloide im Wasser haben eine Frequenz und eine elektrische Polarisierung bzw. bioelektrische Eigenschaft (elektrisch negativ geladen), die sich störend auf viele Krankheitserreger auswirkt. Die oszillierenden Silberpartikeln kreisen im Körperwasser und können so mit den Krankheitserregern in Interaktion treten.

Schon Dr. Becker stellte fest, dass unser Immunsystem von der Anwesenheit von reinem Silber direkt profitiert.

Silber kann nur als Kolloid in Wasser gelöst an jede Stelle des Körpers gelangen.

Studien der medizinischen Fakultät an der Universität Los Angeles haben die antibakterielle, antivirale und pilzhemmende Wirkung vom Elektrokolloidalem Silber aufgezeigt. Elektrokolloidales Silber zerstört spezifische Enzyme, die von Microorganismen für die Respiration benötigt werden. Bereits unsere Vorfahren nutzen die antiseptische Wirkung für sich aus.

ANWENDUNGSFORMEN

Für die systematische Anwendung muss kolloidales Silber z.B. oral eingenommen, d.h. am besten unverdünnt oder mit Wasser verdünnt getrunken, werden. Dabei empfiehlt es sich allerdings, die Flüssigkeit nicht sofort herunterzuschlucken, sondern sie zunächst einige Sekunden lang unter der Zunge zu behalten. Dadurch wird ein Teil des kolloidalen Silbers vom Körper bereits über die Mundschleimhaut aufgenommen. So kann verhindert werden, dass im Darm möglicherweise einige der für die Verdauung wichtigen Bakterien abgetötet werden.

Die orale Anwendung empfehlen einige Ärzte beispielsweise bei Parasiten- und Hefepilzbefall (Candida), chronischer Müdigkeit und bei Bakterien- und Virusinfektionen , aber auch bei vielen anderen Erkrankungen. Kolloidales Silber sollte niemals gleichzeitig mit Vitamin C oder mit anderen Produkten vermischt werden. Nehmen Sie zum Beispiel morgens auf nüchternen Magen Kolloidales Silber und nach dem Frühstück Vitamin C, oder andere Produkte.
Bei Erkrankungen des Mund- und Rachenraumes (Zahnfleischentzündungen, Erkältungen usw.) ist es sinnvoll, mit unverdünnten kolloidalem Silber zu gurgeln und zu spülen.
Soll kolloidales Silber im Dickdarm wirksam werden, muss es möglichst schnell mit viel Wasser getrunken werden, damit es nicht vorher schon vollständig resorbiert wird. Anschließend kann es sinnvoll sein, die Darmflora durch Joghurt o.ä. wieder zu regenerieren.
Da kolloidales Silber selbst bei empfindlichen Geweben wie den Augen keine Reizung hervorruft (kann aber auch mit Wasser verdünnt werden), ist es als " Erste-Hilfe Spray " bei Schnittwunden, Entzündungen, Verbrennungen und Insektenstichen verwendbar
In einer Vielzahl von entsprechenden Anwendungen war bisher kolloidales Silber bei folgenden Problemen hilfreich:

AUSLEITUNG VON QUECKSILBER

Amalgam-Zahnfüllungen enthalten toxisches Quecksilber, welches durch das beigefügte Silber gebunden bleibt. Silber hat die Fähigkeit, Quecksilber zu neutralisieren und aus dem Körper auszuleiten. Wer aus Metallbehältern oder quecksilberverseuchten Fisch gegessen hat, oder überhaupt in diesem Jahrhundert auf diesem Planeten lebt, hat höchstwahrscheinlich ein gewisses Quantum an Quecksilber aufgenommen. Unser Körper mag Silber, aber er haßt Quecksilber. Zum Glück mögen die beiden Schwermetalle einander.

ERKRANKUNGEN DES AUGES

Erkrankung Ursache/Erreger
Augenentzündung (Ophthalmie)
Augenlidentzündung (Blepharitis)
Bindehautentzündung (Konjunktivitis)
Hornhautentzündung (Keratitis)
Hornhautgeschwür
Tränensackentzündung verschiedene Ursachen
z.B. Bakterien, Parasiten usw.
verschiedene Ursachen
Viren u.a.
meist Pneumokokken-oder Pilzinfektion
verschiedene Ursachen

ERKRANKUNGEN DER ATEMWEGE

Erkrankung Ursache/Erreger
Grippe
Keuchhusten
Legionärskrankheit
Lungenentzündung
Mandelentzündung
Nasenkatarrh
Rippenfellentzündung
Tuberkulose
Rhinitis (Nasenschleimhautentzündung) Haemophilus-influenzae; Myxovirus- influenzae
Bordetella pertussis
Legionella pneumophila
verschiedene Ursachen
meist Streptokokken, teilweise Viren
Bakterien
verschiedene Ursachen
Mykobacterium tuberculosis
oft Rinoviren

ERKRANKUNGEN DER HAUT

Akne
Bromidrosis (übelriechende Schweißabsonderung)
Dermatitis
Furunkel
Hautkrebs
Hautpilzerkrankungen
Hauttuberkulose (Lupus)
Herpes simplex
Herpes zoster (Gürtelrose)
Impetigo (eitrige Hautinfektion)
Rosazea ("Kupferfinnen") viele verschiedene Ursachen verschiedene Ursachen
Bakterien
verschiedene Ursachen
Staphylokokken u.a.
verschiedene Ursachen
verschiedene Hautpilze
verschiedene Ursachen
Herpes - Virus
Vericella -Zoster - Virus
z.B.Stphylo - oder Streptokokken
Warzen Papilloma Viren

ERKRANKUNGEN DES UROGENITALTRAKTES

Blasenentzündung (chronisch)
Gonorrhöe (Tripper)
Leukorrhöe (Weißfluß)
Nebenhodenentzündung
Prostatabeschwerden erschiedene Ursachen
Neisseria gonorrhöeae (Gonococcus)
verschiedene Ursachen
verschiedene Ursachen
verschiedene Ursachen

ERKRANKUNGEN DES VERDAUUNGSTRAKTES

Durchfall (Diarrhöe)
Gastritis (Magenschleimhautentzündung)
Ruhr
Salmonelleninfektion verschiedene Ursachen
verschiedene Ursachen (z.B. Bakterien)
Bakterien
Salmonellen

WEITERE ERKRANKUNGEN

Entzündungen des Gehörgangs
Furunkel
Geschwüre
Polio (Kinderlähmung)
Scharlach verschiedene Ursachen
meist Staphylokokken
verschiedene Ursachen
Polio (myelitis) - Virus
Steptokokken

Kolloidales Silber wurde mit gutem Erfolg eingesetzt bei:

Adenovirus 5
Allergien
Arthritis
Bandwurm
Bindehautentzündung
Blephartitis
Blutparasiten
Candida Albicans
Diabetes
Dickdarmentzündung
Diphterie
Eiterflechte
Ekzeme
Entzündungen
Gingivitis
Gonorrhö
Gürtelrose
Hautausschlag
Halsentzündung
Hautrisse
Hauttuberkulose
Hepatitis
Heuschnupfen
Magenentzündung
Magenschleimhautentzündung
Mandelentzündung
Meningitis
Mittelohrentzündung
Mundgeruch
Neurasthenie
Ohrenerkrankungen
Pilzinfektionen
Rheuma
Säure - Basen Ausgleich
Schuppenflechte
Sebörrhoe
Sepsis
Staphylokokkeninfektion
Streptokokkeninfektion
Verbrennungen
Warzen
Wunde
Zahnbelag (Plaques)
Zahnfleischschwund
Zahnfleischbluten
Zeckenbiß

Dosierung

Da kolloidales Silber schon in kleinsten Mengen Krankheitserreger abtötet, reicht eine geringe Dosierung aus. Kolloidales Silber soll möglichst zu den Mahlzeiten getrunken werden. Für Erwachsene genügt es, einen Teelöffel kolloidales Silber täglich einzunehmen. Für Kinder muß die Dosierung entsprechend verringert werden (ca. die halbe Dosis).

Dabei ist es durchaus sinnvoll, in bestimmten Krisensituationen eine Art Silberkur durchzuführen und dann wieder zu pausieren. Sinnvoll kann es beispielsweise sein, in der kalten Jahreszeit vorbeugend den Körper mit kolloidalem Silber zu immunisieren und dazu vorübergehend die Dosis leicht zu erhöhen.

Nebenwirkungen

Wenn Sie große Mengen einnehmen, sollten Sie Ihre Ernährung durch Joghurt oder Laktobakterien ergänzen oder den möglichen Verlust von Bakterien anderweitig kompensieren. Dies stellt jedoch kein ernsthaftes Problem dar, und, anders als Antibiotika, schwächt kolloidales Silber nicht das Immunsystem. Tatsächlich führt es zu einer außerordentlichen Kräftigung des Immunsystems.

Diese Angaben beziehen sich zum Großteil auf Forschungsergebnisse aus den USA.

Noch etwas zum Schluß:

SPIRITUELLE EIGENSCHAFTEN

Nach eingehendem Studium von Forschungsergebnissen und Berichten über die Wirkung von Silberkolloiden bin ich der festen Überzeugung, dass diese auch eine entscheidende Rolle für die geistige Entwicklung der Menschen in der heutigen Zeit spielt. Es scheint, daß Silber eine Substanz ist, die mit den vitalen Kräften des Lebens unmittelbar Verbindung aufnehmen kann..

Dieses Metall kann durch seinen atomaren Aufbau und der sich daraus ergebenden elektronischen Eigenschaften eine Vielzahl von Aufgaben für den Organismus erfüllen:

Wenn wir uns vor Augen führen, dass der Informationsfluss im Körper durch den Fluss der Elektronen erfolgt, so können wir vielleicht erahnen, was diese elektronische Qualität der Edelmetalle zu bewerkstelligen vermag.

Wenn ein Mensch krank ist, ist seine Energie blockiert. Werden diese Blockaden aufgelöst, die Energien ausgerichtet und ins Gleichgewicht gebracht, kann der Heilungsprozess einsetzen. Silber kann die elektrischen und magnetischen Eigenschaften des Körpers beeinflussen (Verbesserung des PcE-Trainings). Es kann ein gestörtes elektrisches Potential wieder normalisieren. Das Edelmetall Silber ist der beste, natürliche Stromleiter.

Literaturangaben :

Prof. Dr. R. Becker "Der Funke des Lebens " ISBN-3-502-130 40 X

Robert Gray : " Das Darm - Reinigungsbuch "

Dr. Clark, Rundschreiben für prak. Ärzte" Finding the way ",

Hrsg.: Clinical Nutritionist and practitioner Christian Doyle,

PO Box 33, Carmarthen SA 33 6YE, UK

O.Bartel: " Silber , kolloidales Silber ist kein Silbernitrat "

Wichtiger Hinweis: Die hier beschriebenen Verfahren werden teilweise völlig unterschiedlich diskutiert und Meinungen gehen oft weit auseinander. Ehe Sie sich für die Anwendung eines Verfahrens entscheiden, sollten Sie sich unbedingt bei einem Fachmann/Fachfrau darüber ausführlich informieren. Von jeder Selbstmedikation ohne fachliche Beratung und Betreuung wird unbedingt abgeraten! Die hier abgedruckten Beschreibungen geben nur die Erfahrungen, Erkenntnisse und den Wissensstand des jeweiligen Verfassers wieder und erheben keinen Anspruch auf allgemeine Gültigkeit.

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http://www.finanztreff.de/ftreff/index.htm

Ehemaliger US-Präsident Ronald Reagan gestorben

[Blockierte Grafik: http://gfx.finanztreff.de/news…4-06-05/34_22834555_0.jpg]

05.06.2004 - 21:38 Uhr

Ehemaliger US-Präsident Ronald Reagan gestorben

(AFP) - Der frühere US-Präsident Ronald Reagan ist tot. Laut US-Fernsehberichten starb Reagan im Alter von 93 Jahren in seinem Haus in Bel Air bei Los Angeles. Zuvor hatte eine Sprecherin der Familie gesagt, Reagans Kinder und seine Frau Nancy wachten an seinem Krankenbett. Reagan hatte im November 1994 bekannt gegeben, dass er an Alzheimer leide, und sich aus der Öffentlichkeit zurückgezogen. (Archivfoto aus dem Jahr 1988) (AFP).

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http://www.ftd.de/so/br/1057486292064.html

Aus der FTD vom 1.7.2003

Unser Dollar, euer Problem

Von Sebastian Dullien

"Super Imperialism".

The Origin and Fundamentals of US World Dominance.

Von Michael Hudson, Pluto Press 2003, 425 Seiten, 32 Euro, ISBN 074531989

Wieder einmal starren Wirtschaftsprognostiker gebannt auf den Dollar-Kurs. Wird die US-Währung weiter abwerten und alle Erholungshoffnungen für die Konjunktur in Europa zunichte machen? Wird gar der Greenback soweit abstürzen, dass Deutschland in die Deflation gleitet und ein zweites Japan wird?

Wie so oft in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten ist das Wohl und Wehe der Weltwirtschaft derzeit eng mit der Entwicklung des Dollar verbunden. Und wie schon so oft stellt sich die US-Regierung auf den Standpunkt:

"Der Dollar ist unser Geld, aber euer Problem."

Tatsächlich: Gravierende Probleme mit dem Wechselkurs scheint Amerika selten zu haben, nicht mit seiner Stärke und nicht in Phasen der Schwäche. Dank des Status als Weltreservewährung stand bislang gar nicht in Frage, dass der Rest der Welt nur zu gern bereit war, den USA weiter Waren gegen Dollar-Schuldtitel zu liefern. Anders als für andere Länder war deshalb auch das oftmals enorme Leistungsbilanzdefizit der USA für die Amerikaner kein drängendes Problem.

Michael Hudson untersucht in seinem neuen Buch "Super Imperialism", wie es die USA zu einer solchen Sonderstellung im Weltfinanzsystem gebracht haben. Hudson beginnt mit dem ersten Weltkrieg, der Debatte um die Kriegsschulden der Alliierten und den deutschen Reparationen. Er zeigt auf, wie der globale wirtschaftliche Verfall beschleunigt wurde, weil eine Welle des US-Protektionismus es den Europäern unmöglich machte, die Kriegsschulden zu begleichen. Düster wirken die Parallelen zur heutigen Situation, wenn Hudson beschreibt, wie Roosevelt den Dollar mit der Bemerkung abwertete, die heimische Wirtschaft gehe vor, und damit die Deflation in den Rest der Welt exportierte.

Interessant für das Verständnis der heutigen Weltfinanzordnung ist, dass Hudson aufzeichnet, wie die USA die Strukturen von Weltbank und Internationalem Währungsfonds so formten, dass sie die beiden Institutionen für die eigene Außenpolitik einspannen konnten.

Beklemmend wird es, wenn Hudson analysiert, wie diese Außenpolitik so oft zum ökonomischen Nachteil von Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern führte. Pointiert zeigt der Ökonom dabei auf, wie es die Stellung des US-Dollar als Weltreservewäh-rung den USA erlaubte, den Korea- und Vietnam-Krieg ohne Rücksicht auf Ungleichgewichte der Zahlungsbilanz zu führen.

Dank des Greenback konnte die amerikanische Regierung die Gewehre bezahlen, ohne dass ihre Bevölkerung dafür auf die Butter verzichten musste.

Bemerkenswert an dieser kritischen Sicht ist, dass ihr Autor in den 60er Jahren für die Chase Manhattan Bank internationale Kapitalflüsse analysierte und heute als Wirtschaftsprofessor im mittleren Westen lehrt.
Ein Globalisierungskritiker oder Antiamerikaner ist Hudson nicht.

© 2003 Financial Times Deutschland

Eine weitere Meldung zum "Wirtschaftsaufschwung" in Deutschland

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http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=523873&section=news

"Welt am Sonntag": Arbeitslosigkeit steigt auf Mai-Rekord

Samstag 5 Juni, 2004 13:38 CET

Berlin (Reuters) - Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen ist nach einem Bericht der "Welt am Sonntag" im Vormonat auf den höchsten Mai-Stand seit der Wiedervereinigung 1990 gestiegen.

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Im Mai seien 4,307 Millionen Menschen ohne bezahlte Tätigkeit gewesen, berichtete die Zeitung am Samstag vorab. Nach Schätzungen von Arbeitsmarktexperten dürften das 35.000 weniger als im Mai vorigen Jahres gewesen sein.

Weil aber die gut 80.000 Arbeitslosen, die in Fortbildungsmaßnahmen stecken, nicht mehr in der Statistik geführt würden, ergebe sich gegenüber Mai 2003 ein Plus von 45.000. Im Vergleich zum April sei die Zahl der Arbeitslosen um gut 136.000 zurückgegangen.

Saisonbereinigt sei die Zahl aber weiter gestiegen. Die Bundesagentur für Arbeit legt ihre neuesten Zahlen am Dienstag in Nürnberg vor.

Von Reuters befragte Analysten gehen ebenfalls von einem Zuwachs der saisonbereinigten Arbeitslosenzahlen um 15.000 aus. Trotz der Frühjahrsbelebung stieg die bereinigte Zahl im April bereits um 23.000 an.

Da wird gutgläubigen Anlegern wohl gerade ein Kuckuck ins Nest gelegt?

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Postbank steigert Gewinn um mehr als 50 Prozent

Samstag 5 Juni, 2004 16:15 CET

Frankfurt (Reuters) - Die Postbank hat ihren Nettogewinn im Auftaktquartal trotz eines niedrigeren Zinsüberschusses um mehr als 50 Prozent gesteigert und erwartet auch für das Gesamtjahr einen höheren Konzernüberschuss.

Die Deutsche Post will am 21. Juni 82 Millionen minus eine Aktie an die Börse bringen. Im Angebot enthalten ist eine Mehrzuteilungsoption in Höhe von elf Prozent. Die Zeichnungsfrist für die Papiere ist vom 7. bis 18. Juni. Die Preisspanne dafür soll am frühen Sonntagabend bekannt gegeben werden. Nach Ansicht vieler Investoren dürfte der Mittelpunkt dabei etwa bei 30 Euro pro Aktie liegen. Zuletzt hatte es aus Konsortialkreisen geheißen, mit einer Zuteilung zu 30 Euro könnte die Konzernmutter Deutsche Post leben, ein höherer Emissionspreis wäre ein großer Erfolg.

weiter.....

http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=523923&section=news

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http://www.wams.de/data/2004/06/06/287668.html

Ausgabe vom Sonntag, den 06.06.2004

VW & Co. schlagen Alarm

Autogipfel beim Kanzler: Die Zahl der Neuzulassungen bricht weiter ein. Jetzt soll Gerhard Schröder helfen, die Branche zu retten

von Ulrich Reitz

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Die Verkäufe dümpeln von sich hin. Der Aufschwung bleibt aus. Schlimmer noch: Nach einem Zwischenhoch in den Monaten März und April gingen die Zulassungszahlen im Mai wieder deutlich zurück. Nach Informationen von WELT am SONNTAG wurden im vergangenen Monat deutlich weniger als 300 000 Fahrzeuge abgesetzt. Im Vergleich zum Vorjahr ein Minus von mehr als vier Prozent. Beispiel Mercedes: Die Stuttgarter melden für Mai einen weltweiten Absatzrückgang von 9,2 Prozent.

Immer mehr Autobauer nehmen deshalb still und heimlich ihre Absatzprognosen für das laufende Jahr zurück.

Einzig der Frankfurter Branchenverband VDA hält noch eisern an seiner Einschätzung vom Jahresbeginn fest. Nach einem schwachen Start habe "die Branche wieder Tritt gefasst", hatten die Autolobbyisten noch Anfang des Jahres erklärt. Immer noch hält VDA-Präsident Bernd Gottschalk am Absatzziel von 3,35 Millionen Fahrzeugen für das Jahr 2004 fest. Nach außen. Denn immer mehr Autobosse melden nach Frankfurt:

"Das schaffen wir nicht."

mehr.....

http://www.wams.de/data/2004/06/06/287668.html

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http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/business/8847557.htm?1c

Posted on Sun, Jun. 06, 2004

Little-known mint sets gold standard for coins

By Paul Nussbaum

Inquirer Staff Writer

WEST POINT, N.Y. - Just past a small golf course, next to a modest ski hill, is a pile of gold worth more than $20 billion.

More than 34,000, 400-ounce gold bars are stacked in the basement vaults of an unassuming building screened by a stand of trees: the nation's least-known mint.

This is the shrinking-violet little sister of the Philadelphia and Denver mints, a low-profile, closely guarded treasure trove that makes all the nation's American Eagle gold, platinum and silver coins.

About 500 million ounces of gold each year are stamped into one-ounce, half-ounce, quarter-ounce and tenth-ounce coins here. Though the coins, designed for collectors and investors, have a face value of $50, $25, $10, and $5, their actual value is much higher, depending on the price of gold.

At the current price of gold, about $380, the one-ounce uncirculated $50 gold piece sells for about $398 at coin dealers, some banks and brokers.

By law, the mint must use gold mined in the United States for its coinage.

In 1999-2000, the mint sold more than two million ounces of gold coins, spurred by Y2K worries and a relatively low price.

"That seemed to be when everyone took an interest in gold," said Ellen McCollum, superintendent since 1999 and a mint employee since 1975. "When the price drops, interest goes up."

In 2002, only 315,000 ounces of gold were sold. Last year, 484,500 ounces were sold, and so far this year, the mint has sold 250,000 ounces of gold coins.

Most Americans do not know this place even exists, since the West Point Mint makes no coins for general circulation. Only "P" and "D" mint marks appear on our pocket change. The "W" is on American Eagle bullion coins.

Because of security concerns, the mint is closed to the public and has been publicity shy over the years, but McCollum said that "started to change when we became a full-fledged mint" in 1988.

"No one is saying we don't want people to know there is a mint here," she said.

Sitting on four acres surrounded by the U.S. Military Academy, the West Point facility began life in 1938 as "the Fort Knox of silver," a storehouse for 70 tons of silver bullion. Between 1974 and 1986, West Point made cents, about 7.2 million a day, and in 1980, West Point began striking gold American Arts medallions.

In 1982, when the New York Assay Office closed, 57.7 million ounces of gold were trucked from that facility to West Point for storage. That made West Point second only to Fort Knox as a gold depository for the nation.

On March 31, 1988, President Ronald Reagan signed the law that made the West Point facility a U.S. Mint, and since 1994, all American Eagle gold coins, as well as all gold commemorative coins, have been made here. The mint uses dies made at the Philadelphia mint.

About 215 people work here. The 24-hour-a-day, five-day-a-week production of gold, silver and platinum coins is a cross between a factory assembly line and a Swiss bank. Local workers, in hair nets and cotton gloves, feed freshly cleaned blanks into machines that stamp the coins out with high pressure (220 tons for the one-ounce coins).

Security is high. All workers and visitors remove all metal before entering and are screened five times to get an accurate measure of the metal in their bodies before they enter the mint. That measurement is compared with the reading when they exit to make sure they are not taking any metal out.

Though the mint workers are proud of their craftsmanship, McCollum said gold did lose some of its ability to fascinate after years of being around it.

"To us, it's work."

Smartie

Danke Dir für Deine Berechnungen zu einem möglichen Silber Verbrauch durch die neue von SAMSUNG angewandte Silber Ionen Technologie in einigen ihrer Haushaltsgeräte.

Der Verbrauch an Silber durch Samsungs neue Technologie ist wirklich noch sehr gering.

Die Publizität jedoch, die Silber durch die Vermarktung dieser nicht nur sehr wirkungsvollen, keimabtötenden Anwendungen von Silber in Form von Nano Partikel, e.g. Silber Ionen, in Waschmaschinen, Klimaanlagen, und Kühlschränken erfahren dürfte, ist geradezu gewaltig positiv für's Silber zu sehen.

Durch diese neuen Anwendungsmöglichkeiten, viele weitere werden mit Sicherheit noch folgen, wird der Masse von Menschen das "Silber Bewusstsein" auf eine neue noch wirkungsvollere Art wieder zurückgegeben, alls es jede noch so weit angelegte Werbe Aktion von Silber Bugs je hätte erreichen können.

Stimme völlig mit Deiner Ansicht überein, dass Anwendungen von Nano Silber Beschichtungen, wie in den von Dir aufgeführten Massen Gebrauchsgegenständen wie Handys und Computer Tastaturen, und sicher noch vieles mehr, den potentiellen Verbrauch an Silber, trotz der sehr kleinen benötigten Mengen für das einzelne Produkt, nach und nach ansteigen lassen könnte.

Falls die Industrie neben den bereits bestehenden Anwendungsgebieten, potenziell auch noch damit anfängt Elektro- Haushaltgeräte, Geschirr, Gläser, Pfannen, Handys, Computer und Zubehör, Matratzen, Wasserfilter, Tapeten, Bodenbeläge, Tische, Stühle, etc., mit Nano Silber Partikel zu beschichten, und zu vermarkten, dann dürfte es nur noch ein kleiner Schritt dazu sein, bis auch die Nachfrage nach aus massivem Silber hergestellten Gebrauchsgegenständen, wieder ansteigen wird.

Wohlgemerkt, das alles zusätzlich zu einem jetzt schon seit mehr als 14 Jahren nachweislich bestehenden Produktionsdefizit beim Silber, und einem gerade langsamen, aber stetig ansteigenden Interesse an diesem Edelmetall durch Kapital Anleger die in Silber nicht in erster Linie ein Verbrauchsmetall sehen, sondern viel mehr ein völlig unterbewertetes Edelmetall mit einem mittel-, und langfristig sehr, sehr grossen wertsteigerungs Potential, und ebenso nicht vergessen haben, dass Silber auch weiterhin einen bereits seit Jahrtausenden innehabenden Stellenwert als *Geld* besitzt, auch wenn die "offizielle Seite" nicht müde wird dies immer wieder zu verneinen.

Würde mich sehr freuen Smartie, falls Du uns hier im Thread öffters mal ein Posting zum Thema Silber einstellen könntest.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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where every Saturday
Jim talks financial sense.

Jim Rogers

Topic: The Bull Market in Raw Materials

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http://www.polyconomics.com/searchbase/gp4.htm

March 9, 1995

A GOLD POLARIS

by Jude Wanniski

Part IV

THE REAGAN CORRECTION

When Ronald Reagan arrived at the White House in January 1981, the level of interest rates were near their all-time highs, forecasting the rise in the general price level signaled by the doubling of the gold price to $580 in the previous 18 months. To put it another way, the only way Reagan could avoid a dramatic rise in the general price level on his watch would be to somehow persuade Volcker to cut the gold price in half, to where it had been 18 months earlier. Otherwise, as contracts unwound, wages and prices of goods and services eventually would have to double as well. In fact, the Fed did keep a tight grip on the supply of new liquidity to the banking system. As the Reagan tax cuts began to invite new economic activity, the demand for dollars increased. This, of course, meant the existing supply of dollar liquidity was insufficient. What would we expect to happen? The price of gold would decline, signaling incipient deflation. That is exactly what did happen. In the year following Reagan's inaugural, the gold price declined to $320 from $580, the sharpest one-year percentage decline in U.S. history. The price actually dipped below $300 in early 1982. The shortage of dollar liquidity that it signaled put excruciating pressure on dollar debtors all over the world.

The monetary deflation did not end until America's biggest single debtor, the Mexican government, advised Volcker that it could not meet its dollar obligations. Mexico had borrowed $30 billion in 1980 from U.S. banks to develop its oil fields, expecting to easily repay its borrowings when oil rose to $40 or $50 per barrel, as conventional wisdom predicted. When gold dropped below $400 and oil dropped below $20 in the Volcker Deflation, Mexico became illiquid. So did the U.S. banks that held oil, other commodities and the land that supported them as collateral against loans. Penn Square of Oklahoma and Continental Bank of Illinois were the two most prominent failures of the period. The Federal Reserve was forced to abandon the money-supply targets that were substituting for the gold Polaris and create $3 billion in new dollar liquidity in exchange for $3 billion in Mexico's peso obligations. The liquidity surged through the U.S. banking system as Mexico made good on its obligations to the banks and the price of gold shot up, signaling an end to the deflation. Stocks and bonds soared in value as the supply and demand for liquidity bounced back to equilibrium.

The positive reaction in the bond market to a surge in new printing-press money was totally unexpected by the Federal Reserve or the Reagan Treasury Department. How can it be possible that long-term interest rates would decline with such "easy money"? Treasury Undersecretary Beryl Sprinkel, an avowed monetarist, had warned that an easing of Fed policy would reignite inflationary expectations and cause a collapse of the bond market. From that point onward, as he was proven emphatically wrong, monetarism's influence in policy circles went into steep decline. The flaw in the monetarist approach is that it does not contain any fixed reference point at all in the tangible world. In the classical approach, which views gold as its reference point, there is a dollar/gold price that is optimum in balancing the interests of debtors and creditors. It is optimum in that it is a price that makes it most likely that debtors will be able to pay their creditors. There can be no other logical definition. Debtors who can pay are obviously in better condition than those who cannot. Creditors who can get paid are in better condition than those who cannot.

At the time Volcker pumped $3 billion of liquidity into the banking system, to enable Mexico to pay its debts, the optimum gold price seemed to be somewhere between $400 and $425 while the actual price had been wavering between $300 and $340. How could we say the optimum gold price was between $400 and $425 at that time? We need only observe that in the previous four years, mid-1978 to mid-1982, when most public and private contracts were made in dollars, there were more days when the gold price was concentrated in that range than in others. The optimum gold price could not be $300, because at that level most debtors would bankrupt and creditors would get nothing. It could not be $600, which would cause creditors to bankrupt.

Indeed, the savings and loan crisis, was the inevitable result of the monetary inflation that followed the breaking of the gold link in 1971 and the floating of the dollar. This is the only place in the world where this occurred, because nowhere else has there existed a thrift institution devoted solely to financing home mortgages. Why? Because the United States was the only country in the world with a unit of account of such integrity that such an institution would be viable. When the dollar is as good as gold, a thrift can borrow short and lend long. That is, it can borrow a house from the community of people who together can build a house for hourly wages and promise to pay them back the house in 20 or 30 years, with interest. A carpenter and a painter and a contractor can make good use of such an institution, because they wish to save part of their hourly wages that comes from home construction. When the dollar price of gold floated from $35 to $350 between 1968 and 1989, the S&Ls were bound to contracts that required them to accept as full payment 10% of the houses they had lent out. Their balance sheets were demolished as a result. Banks had the same problem, but because their intermediation on behalf of homeowners and homebuilders was a small part of their portfolios, they could squeeze by. The S&Ls were caught in the chaos of the floating currency in the same manner that the planners were in the Soviet Union. Try as they might, they did not have the flexibility to adjust to the new equilibrium.

The enormous increase in the national debt of the United States, which now is at the $5 trillion threshold, is entirely due to President Nixon's severing of the dollar/gold link in 1971. The S&L bailout was a small, but significant cost. The assertions by President Clinton and the Democrats that the deficit is due to the supply-side tax cuts of "Reaganomics" is based on false assumptions. The conventional GOP defense against this argument -- that the debt was ballooned by the extravagance of a Congress controlled by Democrats for 40 years -- is equally misguided. Indeed, the national debt is now a much smaller proportion of the nation's per capita output than it was in 1945, at the end of the war. In terms of ounces of gold, the U.S. national debt was 12.5 billion ounces in 1971 and is now 13 billion ounces. The per capita debt in gold has declined, from 62 ounces in 1971 to 52 ounces today. The two political parties should at some future point simply agree that they jointly supported Nixon's devaluation and currency float, which repudiated 90% of the $435 billion in debt held by the public at that time. The decline of the economy in the past quarter century of Cold War can be wholly attributed to the inflation that has warped production incentives through its impact on the federal tax codes. The decline forced the American people to elect Democrats to Congress, to construct social programs and income redistribution schemes to ease the pain in the lowest income classes. Republicans would have attempted to balance the budget during these years even as ordinary people were having the value of their savings and pensions diminished by the inflation.

In 1982, we published a report at Polyconomics on five episodes in history where a nation that had left a gold standard had returned to it. The report was actually the result of a question posed to me that year by Paul Volcker, who wondered how and why we got back on gold after the Civil War. The introduction to the report summarized the findings:

The monetary instability of the past 15 years was not unusual. Strikingly similar episodes have occurred several times in U.S. and European history. These previous experiments with regulating the quantity of money have lasted from 12 to 22 years. But high interest rates, falling commodity prices, and government budget strains have always forced a return to a commodity standard.7

Clearly, fiscal pressures upon a government in each instance forced it to return to the practice of guaranteeing its debt in gold, to economize on debt service costs. It is for this most practical reason that this option has become a point of discussion in the 104th Congress. Sen. Robert Bennett [R-UT] has been making the case for a return to gold in order to balance the budget. He equates each percentage point decline in bond prices as the equivalent of $46 billion in annual savings as the $5 trillion national debt is refinanced.8

mehr.....

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http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sztaba/sztaba060704.html

Metals on the run

Contributed by Olaf Sztaba

NA-Marketletter
http://www.na-marketletter.com
June 7, 2004

INTRODUCTORY SUMMARY: Gold and gold stocks continue to work off the excesses of the last rally. Without doubt, the way the correction in the gold sector is proceeding may cause many goldbugs a great deal of disappointment. It shouldn't. History suggests that when a group generates leadership in a bull market, it usually persists through the entire length of it. Having said that, we believe that gold and metals in general have another year or two to go, at least.

GOLD NOW: In our last Market Comment we stated that: "Every correction should be an occasion to refresh and fill up before another leg up." Indeed, those who took advantage of the last sell-off and filled their portfolios with gold issues are already enjoying healthy gains. Is it going to continue? Yes and no. Yes, because we are acting within a long-term bull market in gold. No, because in the short-term, gold and gold stocks may require further stabilization before another up-leg commences.

Gold has staged an impressive comeback lately. Gold bounced back from the resistance around $380 and moved up decisively, moving close to the $400 mark. Please note that the yellow metal's advance stopped short of the 50- and 200-day MAs. From a technical standpoint, the latest mini-run could be a reaction to a dramatic decline and should not be viewed as the beginning of the next major up-leg, not just yet. There is a strong possibility that what we saw was just the test of the averages and the corrective move will continue. There is, however, one problem in this analysis. Gold is in the cyclical and secular bull market, thus surprises are most likely to be to the upside.

As a result of this, we believe each drop in gold and gold stocks should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

In addition, please note that the February-August period is usually not the best time to invest in gold. Conversely, September-February is historically the period when the golden bulls can act the most.

In sum, gold tried to force its way through the 50- and 200-day MAs. It couldn't. As a result of this, gold may make one more down move. It should create a perfect buying opportunity of the best-priced leaders of the golden bull.

A SECULAR (multi-year) PICTURE: Over the long-term, gold and gold stocks should continue their leadership. The on-going bull market behaves like a snowball. The beginnings are usually inconclusive and slow. As the secular bull market progresses, the bulls become more aggressive. We are still at an early stage of the bull market in metals. The advance, so far, has been elegant and well-crafted, but expect it to change soon. The next big up-leg in gold and gold stocks may be much more dynamic as the general public will try to join the bullish bandwagon in metals.

Many investors still ignore the bull market in metals at their own peril. The secular bullish force in gold is already unstoppable. Accept it and use it to your advantage or be eliminated from this game for many years to come.

For individual gold stocks recommendations sign in for a free trial at http://www.na-marketletter.com

Contributed by Olaf Sztaba
Email: osztaba@na-marketletter.com
Website: http://www.na-marketletter.com

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