Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Um mir die ganze Arbeit zu erleichtern, habe ich den Text in gekürzter
    Form übersetzt. Alles wichtige ist drin, aber nicht in perfekter Qualität.


    Seit Monaten hat der Autor und Ökonom Craig. R. Smith in Interviews
    bei CNBC sowie in Dutzenden Radio- und Fernsehgesprächen davor
    gewarnt, dass Al Qaeda "ökonomischen Terrorismus" gegen die USA
    betreiben würde.


    Während des Interviews schlägt Smith Vorkehrungen und Lösungen
    gegen diese ökonomischen Terrordrohungen vor.


    Die Ausgabe des islamischen Golddinars drei Wochen nach dem 11.9.
    war kein Zufall. Unsere Feinde wissen, dass sie uns nicht militärisch
    schlagen können, also versuchen sie, Amerikas Wirtschaft zu zerstören.


    Laut Condoleeza Rice Aussage im April 2004 hat Osama bin Laden die
    weltweit 1,5 Milliarden Moslems dazu aufgerufen, den US-Dollar zu ver-
    lassen und zum (Gold) Dinar zurückzukehren.


    Die Achillessehne im Finanzsystem der USA ist das Vertrauen. Ohne
    dieses hat das System auf Dauer keinen Bestand. Und Al Qaeda wird
    nicht ruhen, bis Amerika am Boden liegt.


    Ich hoffe, man verzeiht mir die schlampige Übersetzung.


    Gruss


    Warren

    Hallo
    Dies ist ein computer gesteuerde ubersetzung
    Wann Sie dieses fur leesbar halten hier die link fur weitere automatische ubersetzungen


    http://babelfish.altavista.com/


    http://babelfish.altavista.com/


    AL-QAEDA ZIELT AMERIKANISCHE FINANZIERUNG Heute Heimat-Sicherheit verkündete Haupttom Kante, daß es die glaubwürdige Intelligenz gibt, die mögliche Angriffe auf spezifischen finanziellen Zielen in New York City/NJ und DC aufdeckt. Für einige Monate jetzt, hat Author/Economist Craig R. Smith während der Interviews auf CNBC gewarnt und einiges zeigt Dutzend anderes Radio- und Fernsehengespräch, daß Al-Qaeda "ökonomischen Terrorismus" auf den Vereinigten Staaten unternehmen würde. Während der Interviews schlägt Smith Vorkehrungen und Lösungen zu den ökonomischen Terroristdrohungen vor. Smith, CEO von Swiss America Trading Corporation, sagte, "ich habe seit dem ersten Angriff zurück an ` 93, daß die Terroristen ihre Aufstellungsorte auf dem Herzen des America's Herzens haben, Wall Street geglaubt. Die Austeilung des islamischen Golddinars drei Wochen nach 9/11 war- keine Übereinstimmung. Unsere Feinde verwirklichen, daß sie can't uns militärisch schlagen, also sie versuchen, America's economy." zu stören; "Conodleeza Reis im April von 2004 bildete es freien Raum, daß Terroristen versuchten, unser finanzielles System zu schließen. Osama Bin Laden hat 1.5 Milliarde Moslems beauftragen, den VEREINIGTE STAATEN Dollar und die Umdrehung zurück zu dem Dinar zu verlassen, da die Form des Geldes sie verwenden und halten sollen." "der Dinar wurde durch die islamische Welt für den VEREINIGTE STAATEN Dollar verlassen, als das Ottoman-Reich 1924 fiel. America's Achillessehne in unserem finanziellen System ist der Vertrauen Faktor. Ohne Vertrauen hat das System eine haltbare Zeit. Leute vergessen, daß die VEREINIGTE STAATEN Börse für sechs volle Werktage geschlossen war, als keine Aktien gekauft werden oder verkauft werden konnten. Al Qaeda steht nicht still, bis sie Amerika zu seinen Knien finanziell holen (die Al Jeereza Web site, die das Sortierfach beladen veranschlägt). Mit Öl bei $43 pro Faß (eine alle Zeit hoch) könnte dieser Angriff verheerend sein, wenn er auftritt. Let's Hoffnung die Behörden stoppen diese möglichen attacks." Kante glaubt, daß dieses eine glaubwürdige Drohung gegen mögliches "iconic" ist; Ziele einschließlich die Weltbank, den IWF, das vernünftige Gebäude in Newark New Jersey, das Citigroup Gebäude und die NYSE-alle finanziellen Ziele. Die ersten zwei sind in Washington. Die anderen sind in N.Y. und in der New Jersey Drohung-Kante, die bezieht, seien Sie in der Natur körperlich, am wahrscheinlichsten in Form einer truck/car Bombe. Drohungniveaus wurden von Gelbem zur Orange angehoben. Bemerkenswert entschied NYPD Beauftragter Kelly, Drohungniveaus in NY nicht zum Rot zu erhöhen. Aber Smith glaubt, daß die Terroristen mit uns "nur toying können" in der Bemühung "terrorize" uns, um zugänglich zu machen, wie wir reagieren, damit sie sehen können, wo unsere Bereiche von Schwächen und zu beobachten sind wie die Geldmärkte zur erhöhten Drohung reagieren.

    Sensationelle Aktenfunde eines britischen Historikers:


    Wie Churchill 1941 den Frieden verhinderte


    Von Werner Baumann



    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Eigentlich müßte es im deutschen Blätterwald gewaltig rauschen. Denn dem englischen Historiker Martin Allen sind Dokumentenfunde gelungen, die ohne Übertreibung das Adjektiv " sensationell" verdienen. Sie lassen nicht nur den Fall Rudolf Heß in neuem Licht erscheinen; sie weisen auch dem britischen Premier Winston Churchill die Schuld dafür zu, daß sich der 1939 begonnene europäische Konflikt um Polen zum Zweiten Weltkrieg ausweitete - mit mehr als 50 Millionen Toten.


    Hitler jedenfalls wollte schon 1940, obwohl damals noch auf der Siegerstraße, einen auf Ausgleich beruhenden Friedensschluß. Diese Erkenntnis als solche ist nicht neu. Martin Allen hat aber zweierlei entdeckt: zum einen, in welch atemberaubendem Umfang die Berliner Reichsregierung zu Konzessionen bereit war; zum anderen, mit welch perfiden Methoden Churchill die Deutschen hinters Licht führte. Manches davon wirkt wie ein Vorgriff auf den Irak-Betrug des Jahres 2003: die Behauptung, jemand bedrohe (mit gar nicht vorhandenen Massenvernichtungswaffen) die ganze Welt, obwohl der Betroffene in Wirklichkeit auf sämtlichen diplomatischen Kanälen verzweifelt nach Frieden sucht.


    " n-tv" bricht das Schweigen


    Die von Allen aufgespürten Papiere verwandeln große Teile der Siegergeschichtsschreibung über den Zweiten Weltkrieg zu Makulatur. Und hier liegt wohl auch der Grund, weshalb deutsche Politiker und Journalisten so beredt schweigen. Sie müßten sonst zugeben, daß sich die " volkspädagogische" Formel von der deutschen Alleinschuld nicht länger halten läßt.


    Martin Allen ist kein Scharlatan. Seine Enthüllungen (" The Hitler/Heß deception" ) erschienen im vergangenen Jahr zunächst im renommierten Londoner Harper-Collins-Verlag, bei dem die namhaftesten britischen Autoren unter Vertrag sind und dem niemand eine prodeutsche, gar revisionistische Voreingenommenheit zu unterstellen vermag. Die deutsche Übersetzung des Allen-Buches legte kürzlich der Druffel-Verlag vor - unter dem Titel " Churchills Friedensfalle" . Im Unterschied zu Harper-Collins gibt es bei Druffel eine durchaus revisionistische Tradition, was genaugenommen das Gegenteil eines Makels darstellt, aber hierzulande Journalisten in ihrer politischen Ignoranz bestärkt. Sie verteidigen die alliierte Historiographie noch verbissener als die Sieger selber.


    Eine Ausnahme machte jetzt der zum Bertelsmann-Kon-zern zählende Nachrichten- und Wissenschaftssender " n-tv" - wenn auch etwas verschämt in seiner Magazin-Reihe " Technik & Trends" , wo man normalerweise keine zeitgeschichtlichen Sensationen erwartet. Die " n-tv" -Journalisten beschränkten sich seriöserweise nicht darauf, Allen zu interviewen. Sie stellten eigene Recherchen in England an und holten zusätzliche Meinungen dortiger Fachhistoriker ein. Ihr Urteil: Allen liegt richtig.


    Nicht der Nazismus, sondern die Deutschen als Feind


    Demnach haben Churchill und eine kleine Gruppe von britischen Geheimdienstlern in den Jahren 1940/41 eine regelrechte " Friedensfalle" aufgestellt. " Mit Scheinverhandlungen wollten sie bei der deutschen Reichsregierung den Eindruck erwecken, es gebe eine große Zahl hochrangiger friedensbereiter Politiker in England" , berichtet " n-tv" . Aus Churchills Agentenzentrale wurde so getan, als übernähme die vorgegaukelte englische " Friedenspartei" alsbald die Macht in London, so daß Deutschland schon einmal der sowjetischen Bedrohung militärisch entgegentreten könne, ohne in einen Zwei-Fronten-Krieg hineinzuschliddern.


    Churchill wußte aus vielen Quellen von der deutschen Friedensbereitschaft gegenüber England. Hitler selber hatte sie am 19. Juli 1940 in einer Reichstagsrede bekundet. Allen fand nun heraus, daß der päpstliche Botschafter in Spanien als neutraler Mittelsmann im November 1940 konkrete Vorschläge aus Berlin an die britischen Regierung weitergeleitet hatte. Hitler war zu weitreichenden Zugeständnissen bereit: zum sofortigen Rückzug der deutschen Truppen aus Frankreich, Belgien, Holland, Dänemark und Norwegen, zur Wiedergutmachung der entstandenen Schäden, zur Wiederherstellung eines souveränen polnischen Staates und zu umfassender gegenseitiger Abrüstung.


    " Erschreckender Plan"


    Doch der britische Premier wollte keinen Verhandlungsfrieden. Er hielt es mit seinem außenpolitischen Chefberater Robert Lord Vansittart (1881-1957), der im September 1940 an Außenminister Lord Halifax geschrieben hatte: " Der Feind ist das Deutsche Reich und nicht etwa der Nazismus, und diejenigen, die das bislang noch nicht begriffen haben, haben überhaupt nichts begriffen." Vansittart sprach sich für die völlige Vernichtung des Deutschen Reiches aus, weil es ein " Fluch" sei, der " seit 75 Jahren auf der Welt lastet" (Allen dokumentiert den kompletten Brief).


    Für Churchill kam nur eines in Betracht: den deutschen Friedenswillen zu nutzen, um Zeit für den Kriegseintritt der Sowjets und der Amerikaner zu gewinnen. Sogar Hugh Dalton (1887-1962), Minister in Churchills Kriegskabinett, war über die Hinterhältigkeit seines Premiers entsetzt: " Was Winston jetzt vorschlägt, ist ein wirklich erschreckender Plan, und ich bin mir nicht sicher, ob es mein Gewissen erlaubt, daran teilzunehmen. Ich war immer der Überzeugung, daß im Krieg auch Knochenkegeln gegen die Hunnen erlaubt ist. Aber ich glaube nicht, daß es moralisch gerechtfertigt ist, diesen Weg einzuschlagen, um zum angestrebten Ergebnis zu kommen."


    Dalton hatte begriffen, daß Churchill aus antideutschen Motiven den europäischen Regionalkonflikt zum Weltkrieg ausweiten und dafür Millionen von Menschen opfern wollte. Ernsthafte Verhandlungen mit Deutschland waren unerwünscht. Dalton überwarf sich deshalb mit dem Premier und schied aus dem Kabinett aus. Seine Kritik ging in die Akten ein, die Allen nun als erster entdeckte und auswertete.


    Der Opfergang des Rudolf Heß


    Federführend bei Churchills " Friedensfalle" war eine kleine Spezialeinheit des britischen Geheimdienstes, die unter der Bezeichnung " Special Operation 1" (SO 1) in Woburn Abbey arbeitete. Sie schuf das Trugbild einer Gruppe friedensbereiter englischer Politiker, bestärkte damit Hitler in seinen anglophilen Illusionen und lockte Rudolf Heß am 10. Mai 1941 nach Schottland. Allen: " Es besteht kein Zweifel daran, daß Hitler vor Heß` Abflug informiert war, denn beide hatten sich kurz zuvor noch getroffen." Heß, der Hitlers absolutes Vertrauen besaß, schien für eine solch heikle Mission genau der richtige Mann: loyal bis zur Selbstverleugnung und außerdem als Pilot so flugerfahren, daß niemand sonst eingeweiht werden mußte.


    Statt der verhandlungsbereiten englischen Politiker erwarteten den Emissär aus Deutschland Churchills Agenten. Sie sperrten den Friedensflieger kurzerhand weg - 46 Jahre lang, bis zu seinem Tod im August 1987. Kein Historiker, kein Journalist wurde an Heß herangelassen. Dessen angeblicher Selbstmord im alliierten Gefängnis Berlin-Spandau stieß schließlich noch auf die Zweifel deutscher Gerichtsmediziner, die auf Bitten des Heß-Sohnes den Leichnam obduzierten.


    Fast wie Heß selber fiel auch Hitler in jenem Mai 1941 aus allen Wolken, als er von der Verhaftung seines Stellvertreters hörte. Wie konnte man ohne größeren Gesichtsverlust den Vorgang der deutschen Öffentlichkeit erklären? Hätte sich Hitler als - naives - Opfer einer britischen Finte bloßstellen sollen? Weit näher lag es, Heß zum " verrückten" Alleingänger zu stempeln. Dieser nahm die Rolle dann auch an, spielte sie weiter vor dem Siegertribunal in Nürnberg und hielt sie durch bis zum letzten Atemzug.


    Allen aber entdeckte nun in den britischen Akten, daß Hitler seinen langjährigen Weggefährten zunächst keineswegs abgeschrieben hatte. Zwei Wochen nach Heß` Landung sprangen drei deutsche Agenten mit dem Fallschirm in der Nähe von Woburn Abbey ab. Sie wurden entdeckt, festgenommen, nach London gebracht und dort im Tower hingerichtet. Im Unterschied zu Allens sonstigen Ermittlungen, die sich mit Dokumenten belegen lassen, kann man über den Zweck des deutschen Agenten-Absprungs nur spekulieren. Sollte Heß befreit oder Churchills Geheimdienst-Zentrale sabotiert werden? War gar geplant, den dort öfter auftauchenden britischen Außenminister als Geisel zu nehmen, um ihn auszufragen und gegen Heß auszutauschen?


    Keine Fälschung


    Es bleiben offene Fragen, die den Wert des Allen-Buches aber nicht mindern. Peter Padfield, einer der bekanntesten englischen Historiker und ebenfalls Heß-Biograph, lobte seinen Kollegen im " n-tv" -Interview ohne den manchmal üblichen Forscherneid:


    " Die Dokumente sind definitiv keine Fälschungen. Zum ersten Mal wird hier ein Bezug zwischen der Operation selbst und ihren Teilnehmern hergestellt. Deswegen sind sie von extremer Bedeutung, weil es vorher darüber nur Spekulationen gab. Die Dokumente, die Heß wahrscheinlich bei sich gehabt hat, liegen in englischen Archiven und sind nicht freigegeben. Wieso können wir sie nicht sehen? Deswegen sind wir auf detektivisch arbeitende Historiker wie Martin Allen angewiesen."


    Dr. Michael Stenton, Dozent für Politik und Geschichte an der Universität Cambridge, die neben Oxford den Rang der führenden englische Hochschule innehat, kommt nach Sichtung der Allen-Papiere zu dem Schluß:


    " Nachdem ich die Dokumente gelesen habe, bin ich der festen Überzeugung, daß Heß` Ankunft in Britannien im Mai 1941 das Ergebnis einer bestimmten Art von Intrige war, wahrscheinlich ein Täuschungsmanöver, durchgeführt von Rex Leepers Special Operation 1, welche von 1940 bis 1941 ein Teil von SOE (dem britischen Geheimdienst) war und deren Taten sehr undurchsichtig waren, vorsichtig ausgedrückt. Es kann sehr gut sein, daß SOE nicht erwartet hatte, daß Heß auftaucht, daß sie vielmehr annahmen, daß eine weit weniger wichtige Person erscheinen würde... Ich glaube, daß Allens Argumente richtig sind, gestützt auf SO 1-Dokumente, welche besagen, daß es Absicht war, Heß - und damit Hitler - mit der Idee zu füttern, daß in England eine mächtige Friedensfraktion existiert."


    Der Kriegstreiber als Friedensheld


    Erst im Jahr 2017 will die britische Regierung die geheimgehaltenen Heß-Akten freigeben. Dann lebt keiner der Beteiligten mehr, und die Frage, wer welchen Schuldanteil am Tod von Millionen Menschen hat, dürfte nur noch von akademischem Reiz sein (hier spielt allerdings auch die NS-Judenverfolgung hinein, deren exzessive Steigerung einsetzte, als man deutscherseits zu ahnen begann, daß eine Ausgleichslösung nicht mehr zu erreichen war). Allein die Tatsache der langen Geheimhaltung spricht für sich und läßt nach Auffassung der meisten Historiker keine Entlastung für die britische Politik erwarten.


    Allen ist jedenfalls überzeugt davon, daß die von ihm entdeckten Außenamtsakten den Fall Heß schon heute so widerspiegeln, wie er sich eines Tages auch bei Veröffentlichung der Rest-Papiere darstellen wird - zu Lasten jenes Winston Churchill, dem ahnungslose Deutsche 1956 in Aachen den Karlspreis verliehen: für seine Bemühungen um den Frieden in Europa.


    Buchhinweis: Martin Allen: Churchills Friedensfalle. Das Geheimnis des Heß-Fluges 1941. 432 Seiten, gebunden, 70 Photos und Dokumente,http://www.dsz-verlag.de, € 34,80.




    Sind doch alles olle Kamellen


    Glück auf

    Noch ein paar Erläuterungen zu den US-Arbeitsmarktdaten


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.fr-aktuell.de/_img/fr/titel_fr.gif]
    ....
    Es könnte zwar durchaus sein, dass Präsident George Bush sein Ziel erreicht, bis Silvester auf 2,6 Millionen neue Jobs verweisen zu können. Eine aktuelle Studie des Economy Policy Institute bewertet die Entwicklung dennoch kritisch, weil sie weniger auf Quantität als auf Qualität abstellt. Denn in jenen Sektoren, die wachsen und in denen deshalb Jobs angeboten werden, seien die Löhne niedriger als in den traditionellen Branchen, erläutert der Autor der Untersuchung, Jared Bernstein. Dies führt dazu, dass die Haushalte mit weniger Geld auskommen müssen. Im Juni habe der durchschnittliche Wochen-Arbeitslohn real nur noch 525,84 Dollar betragen - weniger als auf dem Tiefpunkt der Rezession im November 2001, da waren es 529,49 Dollar.


    Nach den Berechnungen der Investmentbank Morgan Stanley, die die offiziellen Statistiken des US-Arbeitsamts ausgewertet hat, ist jeder vierte neue Job in den vergangenen Monaten jenen Branchen zuzurechnen ist, in denen notorisch geringe Einkommen verdient werden: Restaurants, Gebäudereinigung und -bewachung sowie Zeitarbeit. Insgesamt entfielen 44 Prozent der neuen Stellen auf Niedriglohn-Branchen. Gleichzeitig entstand ein Drittel der Stellen in Anwaltsfirmen oder vergleichbaren Büros, die hohe Löhne zahlen. Damit wurden neue Jobs entweder am oberen oder am unteren Ende der Lohnskala geschaffen.


    Außerdem kommt Morgan Stanley zu dem Ergebnis, dass fast 97 Prozent der neuen Stellen in den zurückliegenden Monaten zeitlich befristete Arbeitsplätze sind. Die Banker kommen deshalb zu einem enttäuschenden Ergebnis: Die US-Jobmaschine habe mehrheitlich Arbeitsplätze geschaffen, die nicht vollwertig seien. Dies zwinge die Amerikaner, mehr Kredite aufzunehmen, um ihren Lebensstandard zu halten.


    Und: Große Handelsketten lassen ihre Beschäftigten beispielsweise nur noch 28 Stunden pro Woche arbeiten und drücken sich damit um die Pflicht, den Angestellten eine Krankenversicherung zu offerieren. Damit nimmt die Zahl derer zu, die Arzt- und Arzneikosten selbst auftreiben müssen.
    ....
    http://www.fr-aktuell.de/resso…se/wirtschaft/?cnt=483162

    Hiobsbotschaften vom Arbeitsmarkt ...


    von Martin Weiss


    Die erste August-Woche hatte es in sich. Die deutschen Aktien mussten im Wochenverlauf starke Kursverluste hinnehmen. Letztlich ging der Dax am Freitag bei 3727 Punkten aus dem Handel.


    Ein Wochenverlust von über vier Prozent ist mehr als nur beachtlich. Nicht zuletzt auch deshalb, zumal sich die charttechnische Ausgangslage weiter verschlechtert hat. Insofern ist es gut möglich, dass der Dax in den nächsten Tagen die Widerstandszone bei 3680–3700 nach unten durchbricht. Es ist dann wahrlich nicht unwahrscheinlich, daß der Index dann schnell bis in die Region von 3300 Punkten abrutschen könnte.


    Und, angesichts der dramatisch-schwachen realwirtschaftlichen Lage in Deutschland ist dieses Szenario gewiss nicht unrealistisch. Mehr denn je gibt es äußerst bedenkliche Warnsignale vom Arbeitsmarkt. Insofern herrscht mitten im Hochsommer Eiszeit.


    Selbst in der "offiziellen Statistik" wurde für den Juli ein deutlicher Anstieg der Arbeitslosen um 126500 Personen auf 4,36 Millionen Menschen vermeldet. Dies ist der höchste Juli-Stand seit der deutschen Wiedervereinigung. Im Mai diesen Jahres nahm die Zahl der Beschäftigten saisonbereinigt erneut um 10000 im Vergleich zum Vormonat, im Vergleich zum Vorjahr um 100 000 ab. Wie schon mehrmals erwähnt, die wahre Zahl der Arbeitslosen dürfte fast doppelt so hoch sein. Müßig zu betonen, dass es sich dabei um eine immer bedrohlicher tickende Zeitbombe handelt. Weiters musste die Industrie im Juno 2004 einen kräftigen Rückgang der Produktion (um 1,9 Prozent) verzeichnen.


    Zudem steht auch immer mehr Verbrauchern – finanziell betrachtet – das Wasser bereits höher als nur bis zum Hals. Im Mai nahm die Zahl der Verbraucherinsolvenzen sowohl im Vormonats- als auch im Vorjahresvergleich um mehr als ein Drittel auf neue Rekordhochs zu. Wie auch immer, die wirtschaftliche Lage Deutschlands ist alles andere als stabil. Bleibt zu hoffen, dass angesichts der gewaltigen Probleme des Landes nicht die freiheitlich-demokratische Grundordnung gefährdet wird, was erste Auguren bereits befürchten.


    Auch jenseits des Atlantiks fielen die Juli-Arbeitsmarktdaten alles andere als positiv aus. Ein Stellenaufbau von nur 32000 ist angesichts der Tatsache, dass 243000 neue Jobs erwartet wurden, eine herbe Enttäuschung. Nachdenklich stimmt vor allem, dass im Handel insgesamt 19000 Stellen im Juli verloren gingen. Dies ist auch nicht wirklich verwunderlich, zumal ja schon im Juno die persönlichen Verbrauchsausgaben der Amerikaner stärker als erwartet um 0,7 Prozent zurückgingen.


    Außerdem spitzt sich auch die Lage bei der Jugendarbeitslosigkeit in den USA zu, die Arbeitslosenrate stieg erneut auf bedrohlich hohe 17,6 Prozent an. Ebenfalls sind die US-Aktienmärkte charttechnisch schwer angeschlagen und weitere, kräftige Kursabschläge liegen in der Luft. Angesichts dieser Ausgangslage dürfte es also in den nächsten Tagen sehr, sehr spannend werden. Vor allem auch, was der Offenmarktausschuß der Fed am Dienstag verkünden bzw. beschließen wird.


    Wie dem auch sei, der Ölpreis setzt seinen Aufwärtstrend nahezu unbeirrt fort. Ein baldiges Ende dieses MEGA-Trends ist sicherlich nicht zu erwarten. Im Zuge der Marktturbulenzen aufgrund der schwachen US-Arbeitsmarktdaten schoss am Freitag der Goldpreis wieder bis auf annähernd 400 US-Dollar in die Höhe. Für Euro-Anleger blieb aber der Preis für die Feinunze Gold stabil bei 325 Euro.


    Letztlich braucht man aber wahrlich kein großer Prophet, dass vor dem Hintergrund der Verwerfungen an den Devisen- bzw. Aktienmärkten der Goldmarkt phantastische Perspektiven hat ...
    http://www.investor-verlag.de

    Für Bognair wg des starken Goldpreisanstiegs nochmal den Kommentar vom LeMetropole Cafe zum letzten Freitag:


    August 6 - Gold $399.30 up $7.40 – Silver $6.74 up 2 cents


    Gold Pops, Dollar Dives, Interest Rates Swoon, Stock Market Tanks


    "We need only take our heads out of the sand to see clearly that interventionism not only has failed to provide the promised something-for-nothing, but has led to all sorts of undesirable consequences. Indeed, many are just beginning to realize that we are moving towards disaster even though we have been on a wrong heading for decades."
    - Leonard Read


    It doesn’t get much better for gold than what collateral financial markets did today to propel the price through the roof. As always, this means little in a rigged market. With a stunningly disappointing US jobs report, the dollar was battered, US interest rates fell sharply and the stock market was tagged. Meanwhile, oil continued to hover close to $44 per barrel, finishing the day at $43.95.


    For a brief moment in the early trading gold jumped up $9. Then, the goon squad showed up and went into action. Groundhog Day once again. Not going to give my usual rant on this. You know it by heart by now. Only want to make the point again that the Orwellians, with their Father Knows Best managing of the markets, are taking our country down the wrong path. Their constant meddling will be disastrous to our economy and financial markets.


    While an oversold gold market was capped, look at what the dollar and interest rate vehicles did:


    September 5-yr note closed at 111, up 1 4/32
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/FV/94


    September 30-yr bond closed at 110 28/32, up 1 28/32
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/94


    September dollar, down 1.28
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/94


    September euro, up 2.25 to 122.18
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/EC/94


    December gold
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/YG/C4


    Sickening is the way to describe how The Gold Cartel continually prevents gold from making new highs throughout the day after its initial surge during the first half hour to hour of trading. This is COMPLETELY unnatural when you compare gold to how other markets trade. It is blatant as can be yet you hear nothing on this issue from the airhead mainstream gold analysts or from the silent meatheads in the gold industry.


    Speaking of lightweights, is the World Gold Council in business? You never hear anything from them any more unless it is to promote jewelry. Any gold producer which pays them more than lip service is wasting their shareholder’s money.


    The cabal enforcers made sure gold did not close above the psychologically important $400 level, knocking it down $1 on the close.


    While the currencies made new highs as the day wore on, gold was held in lockdown check. Some things never change. "Wearisome" is the adjective used by a fellow Café member in referring to the cabal’s forever used $6 rule, which kicked in right on cue late in the day (for Café newcomers, the $6 rule is applied by the cabal when gold is surging. In essence, the cabal caps gold for an allowable daily advance at $6 and change, which can overflow a tad to up $7.40 like we saw today). As long mentioned in this column, the gold price will never go to where it should until the bums are carried out on stretchers. This will only occur when they lose control of the rig, or are overpowered by physical market buying. Most likely it will be a combination of both that does the crooks in.


    The good news is the recent action in the other financial markets is bringing that day much closer.


    The gold open interest dropped 2039 contracts to 217,582.


    Silver is finding increasing resistance as it heads for $7 per ounce. After reacting swiftly to the dollar tanking, it fell back and lost most of its early gains. The open interest jumped 1335 contracts to 98,184. Still, this open interest is around 25,000 contracts less than when silver leaped to $8.46 earlier this year. With gold still below $400, there is plenty of room for silver to take out those highs.


    While the silver action today was very heavy and may mean a short-term setback, the future price outlook is extremely positive. Heard from our London silver dealer source this afternoon. He is very bullish, looking for silver to take out $8. He recently bought another $100,000 worth of silver for his own account. Business is brisk out of Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and China.

    August 9 - Gold $400.30 up $1 – Silver $6.71 down 3 cents


    Gold Closes Above $400, $45 Oil!, Calm Before The Storm!


    The wise are instructed by reason, average minds by experience, the stupid by necessity and the brute by instinct...Marcus Tullius Cicero, statesman, orator and writer (106-43 BCE)


    GO GATA!!!


    A note from this weekend. After Friday’s dramatic day as far as the US financial markets were concerned (resulting from the stunningly disappointing US jobs report), I thought I would pay special attention to how the pundits viewed the developments, like those on the Fox TV business market shows on Saturday morning.


    Several things stood out:


    *Most were still bullish, yet admitted confusion over the surprisingly lousy jobs number. That the economy has deteriorated so quickly the past month or two has them befuddled. It seems to have done so under the radar screen of Wall Street? Perhaps a number of them ought to subscribe to this column or read the very insightful King Report. What they might have picked up:


    1. The jobs reports were overstated all along due to something esoteric called the Birth/Death Hedonic Adjustment Indicator. Bill King has been all over this after each report, citing they were not nearly as strong as trumpeted by Washington and Wall Street. Without utilizing this indicator, the job numbers would have been weakish for some time. Perhaps, the Labor people felt they just couldn’t get away using their fudging any longer. There are also a number of Café members who now believe the "powers" behind the scenes won’t mind if Bush is dumped as he has become a liability to their grandiose plans. Meanwhile, they have another Skull & Bones man in Kerry to step in and take his place


    2. While the jobs numbers have been overstated, inflation has been understated. Even without taking into account the juggling of the real numbers, the fact that the core CPI, the most focused on inflation number, is calculated without implementing energy costs is ludicrous. As oft-mentioned here, next to health costs what item could be more important to the average American? Consequently, US corporations and the average Joe and Jane are being squeezed and it is beginning to really show. This should not surprise either as 80% or more of the US economic reports the past two months have been sup-par and more anemic than anticipated.


    3. The manipulation of US financial markets is beginning to catch up to the price managers. A false sense of economic well-being has been force-fed on the public. PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY. Many of the US financial markets have been nothing but technical illusions from a chart/TA standpoint. This has resulted in an unusual amount of complacency among investors, which could lead to dangerous herd investor movements in the months ahead.


    4. What really surprised me was how few of the pundits were bearish and NONE suggested investors should "batten down the hatches" and prepare for some very difficult economic times. Amazingly NONE focused on the tax cuts running their course, the effects of the incredibly low interest rates for an extended period of time having run their course, as well as the initial stimulus of spending on the Iraq War having also run its course.


    5. For years one of my rants has been the artificial suppression of the price of gold was going to come back and haunt the riggers and eventually prove to be calamitous for the average American. The basic reason is very simple. Rightfully so or not, gold is used as a barometer as far as the health of the US economy is concerned. When the price of gold is soaring EVERYONE talks about inflation, crisis, or save haven investing. Each of those is a negative for Wall Street, which is why the disingenuous, corrupt ones in The Gold Cartel have made such an effort to keep the price down. Had they let it take its natural free market price course, gold would be MUCH, MUCH higher than it is today and the average American would have been given a fair signal to be more defensive in their with investments.


    ***


    It’s Monday morning. As if to prove my point made over the weekend about gold being a key indicator for both Wall Street economists and the public, Bear Stearns chief economist, John Ryding, was on CNBC early on saying gold was his key inflation indicator. Thank you very much! It could not be more obvious why The Gold Cartel is suppressing the gold price. It’s called motive.


    One need only flip the page to another Wall Street apologist, Larry Kudlow of CNBC note, to give you some idea to what length The Gold Cartel has gone to suppress the price of gold. The following three year old piece says it all:


    LARRY KUDLOW ON OIL/GOLD Ratio (June 2001)


    Snippet:


    Today's barrel price for oil is $17, which looks to be just about right in terms of two economic models of oil-price behavior. First, the inflation-adjusted real price of oil has averaged $21.50 a barrel over the past decade. Real prices moved temporarily to $45 during the Persian Gulf War, and briefly fell to $10 a barrel in late 1998 during the global financial crisis that threatened world deflation and recession. The most recent spike was slightly above $30 a barrel this year, so a $17 barrel of oil averages nicely within this pattern.


    Second, the monetary model of oil prices that uses the ratio between gold and oil suggests that today's $17 per barrel spot price (or current price) for West Texas crude is also just about right. Gold is a useful benchmark because its monetary purchasing power is relatively constant over long periods of time. Hence, over time, an ounce of gold should buy roughly the same number of barrels of oil. In the past decade an ounce of gold bought seventeen barrels of oil, on average. Today, with gold at $275 per ounce, a $17 barrel of oil implies 16.2 barrels per gold ounce. This is actually below the average of seventeen oil barrels per ounce of gold registered over the past ten years. Therefore, a $16 per barrel oil price would be consistent with the decade-long trend.


    http://www.nationalreview.com/kudlow/kudlowprint112101.html


    -END-
    17 barrels (average of seventeen oil barrels per ounce of gold registered over the past ten years) of oil times the price of one barrel at $45 comes to a total of $765 or what gold should be per ounce according to his ratio formula


    Kudlow, like the rest of the mainstreamers on Wall Street, have selective memories. Yes, gold should be at $765 per ounce today. Where are the Kudlow’s of the world suggesting something seems to be very wrong with the price of gold from a historic perspective? This is what The World Gold Council and the entire gold industry ought to be jumping all over as even more anecdotal evidence of a nefarious gold price suppression scheme.


    Once again we see how PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY – commentary the price managers want the public to read – and that is gold continues to lose its historic value in terms of oil, inflation and safe haven investing. Not only is this an outrage, it is disingenuous to the extreme and is only postponing the inevitable truth/result. The gold price is going to go bonkers when the crooks lose control of their scam.


    A big thanks to Lois Ringel for bringing this old Kudlowism to my attention.


    The big news of the day was crude oil, as it approached $45 per barrel. The news:


    11:56 Iraqi oil official says southern oil output to remain shut until fighting threat is lifted, reports Reuters
    * * * * *


    AP) - A radical Shiite cleric vowed to fight to the death as his loyalists battled U.S. troops for a fifth straight day Monday, and bombings in Sunni regions outside Baghdad -- including a failed attempt to assassinate a deputy governor -- killed at least 10 Iraqis. The fighting with Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia began to have economic fallout. Iraq's southern oil company stopped pumping oil to the southern city of Basra where militiamen were controlling main streets because of threats to infrastructure, an official with the company said


    12:48 Reuters reports YUKOY's main unit Yugansk seized again by bailiffs
    Recall this is the unit that received a favorable court ruling on Friday 8/6
    * * * * *


    Incredibly, thanks to the price managers, gold yawned and only drifted higher after a lower opening as the day wore on. Volume was very light.


    The gold open interest only rose 2038 contracts on Friday to 219,618. This tells us there was a fair amount of short-covering and not much new buying as the price ran up so quickly. Once at the $400 level, the price-cappers did their thing. This is VERY good news as there is room for 100,000 specs to come in on the long side to bury the bums. Perhaps it will take the specs a little more time to get their nerve up. Most have to be sick and tired of the cabal picking their pockets.


    Silver was wobbly above $6.70 on Friday and stayed that way. Early on a 200 lot order took the price down to $6.55. There were no bids, however, selling dried up and silver recouped most of these early losses. The silver open interest rose 141 contracts to 98,325.


    A nice silver plus for the day: the Comex warehouse stocks fell a sizeable 2,117,277 ounces to 111,548,374, a new LOW for the move. Just what MIDAS has been looking for and advertised at the end of June.


    The way I see it, this is the calm before the storm. Certainly, this is a time to have your ducks in the water as far as gold and silver are concerned. It is our ducks' kind of weather.

    The John Brimelow Report


    Scepticism a friend?


    Monday, August 9, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.26, PM $3.91, with world gold at $398.50 and $398.40. Slightly below legal import point. The rupee weakened in afternoon. Premium compression, of course, is to be expected when world gold rises abruptly. The Shanghai Gold Exchange moved to actual discounts on world gold. Standard London continues to show premiums on their kilo bar Dubai prices.


    Despite the some times gold-friendly weakening of the yen since Friday’s Tokyo close, TOCOM showed no enthusiasm: on volume of only 13,393 Comex equivalent (up 35% on Friday, however) the active contract was up 5 yen but world gold was down 75c on the NY close at the end of trading. Open interest fell the equivalent of 995 Comex lots to only 95,090 Comex equivalent, and preliminary indications are that this may understate the degree of liquidation by the public. (NY on Friday traded 65,334 contracts; open interest increased 2,038 lots to 219,620.)


    On Friday, gold following the employment data essentially tracked the dollar, a number of commentators noting the failure to make progress in other currencies. The small open interest increase given the $7.30 jump in gold suggests that fresh buying was largely satisfied out of short liquidation. One remains bemused as to why commercially-motivated shorts would go short in the teeth of the premium data around last week – maybe they were not aware of it. The highly professional Rhona O’Connell in her weekly column on Thebulliondesk does not mention the huge and dramatic July Turkish gold import number available last Thursday, which appears to suggest huge Middle Eastern demand.


    In general, neither the enemies nor the weary friends of gold were particularly impressed by Friday’s superficially dramatic gold action. Australia’s Privateer notes dourly:


    "The most important feature on the weekly chart is the fact that the 40 week moving average (MA) is firmly above the 20 week moving average… The August 6 up move has pushed Gold back above its 20 week MA but not yet back to its more important longer-term 40 week MA…a level above $US 410 is necessary before Gold can mount any challenge to its February/April 2004 highs in the high $Us 420s (spot future closing price basis)."


    "The point and figure chart has keeled over from its distribution zone in the mid $US 400s and has slid all the way back down to just below the uptrend line. With the $US 4.00 gain on Friday, the chart has turned up again and now rests just below the line."


    "The biggest change in the point and figure chart is the simple fact that with the rise on August 6, Gold is once again well above its uptrend line…On this chart, a move above $US 410 in the absence of any more distribution would be a sign of drastic increase in upside strength. We'll wait and see."


    This diffidence on the part of gold’s friends is perhaps the strongest short term Bullish argument.


    JB

    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
    Two minor "Hail Mary" late DOW rallies failed. Each time the DOW was lifted to 40 higher on the day, it gave up the ghost, closing at 9815, down 1 and on the lows of the session. The DOG was unable to gain any traction at all, losing 2 to 1775.
    The dollar rose .03 to 88.49, while the euro dropped .04 to 122.65 ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.
    Wall Street is waiting to hear what the Fed has to say tomorrow. Why? Greenspan and his recent comment to Congress about the economy being in a "temporary soft spot" and high oil prices being "transitory" was about as far off as you could get in a short period of time.
    What Wall Street wants is spin – Goldilocks pabulum. If they get it, Greenspan will look even worse down the road than he does now. Lose, lose for the Fed no matter what they do or say. The shocker will be if they tell it as it really is!
    Long the stock market?
    Get ready for a Nagasaki to shake you up any day or week now!
    Economic news items of interest:
    Cement shortages spread and start to impact pricing says the WSJ
    Faster growth regions are the hardest hit but some economists say it could impact the entire economy if the shortage doesn't ease soon. Normally imports make up the difference in demand but strong demand from China as well as rail backlogs in the U.S. have exacerbated the problem. Other construction commodities, such as lumber and steel, are increasing in price and facing shortages. Industry execs say the shortage will ease with the coming cooler weather.


    DIS' Miramax to lay off about 35% of workforce this week reports the NY Post
    The paper says the layoffs are worse than expected.
    * * * * *
    10:00 June Wholesale inventories reported 1.1% vs. consensus 0.6%
    Prior reading revised to 1.4% from 1.2%.
    * * * * *
    The inventory increases was unexpected and not inconsequential. Goods are not moving off the shelves as hoped for.


    Buffett increases bet against dollar to $19 bln


    NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Warren Buffett increased Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s bet against the U.S. dollar to $19 billion at the end of the first half of 2004, his holding company disclosed in a regulatory filing.


    The value of the Omaha, Nebraska-based company's contracts in foreign currency had increased by $8 billion by June 30, the company said its quarterly filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


    Buffett previously disclosed making investments in five foreign currencies in a belief the dollar will decline in the long run as a result of the United States' ballooning trade deficit. He has never specified which currencies he was investing in, only saying they were major…. –END-
    Warren Buffet has become the second richest person in the world for very good reasons. Betting against him is a sure way to the poor house.
    GATA’s Mike Bolser:
    Bill:
    The Fed added $4.75 Billion in repos to day August 9th 2004, an action that upped the repo pool a bit to $44.269 Billion and kept it quite high. The DOW is struggling at 9850 at this hour. The Fed continues to march along its pre-determined linear path upwards, seemingly uninterested in the DOW's troubles. It's almost as if the Fed is content, knowing a future event will turn things around for the DOW and perhaps for the election chances of the
    President.


    They HAVE been all over the bond rig, making sure the 30-year yield stays almost exactly on 5%.


    Oil continues to track above $44/bbl at this hour and there's no relief from Venezuela. Indeed, if the administration thought they were going to install a puppet regime in Caracas by stirring things up, it seems to have backfired according to this story:


    Why Hugo Chávez is heading for a stunning victory
    Richard Gott in Caracas
    Saturday August 7, 2004 The Guardian
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/vene…y/0,12716,1278276,00.html


    To the dismay of opposition groups in Venezuela, and to the surprise of
    international observers gathering in Caracas, President Hugo Chávez is about to secure a stunning victory on August 15, in a referendum designed to lead to his overthrow. END


    And the reason why this will happen can be found here:
    http://www.vheadline.com/printer_news.asp?id=22339
    In a phrase: US internal meddling. Congressman Ron Paul objects to this kind
    of government intervention
    ++++++++++++++++++++++


    As I mentioned in Friday the Fed is leveling off their 200-day ma at DIVG=343 and as a result of the heavy selling needed to accomplish that the Fed is in a weakened state. No one can say what they will do from here but a move back down is highly unlikely so IF one were waiting to get on board with physical NOW is the time.
    Mike


    Chuck checked in on Saturday:
    Just wanted to pass on an observation regarding Newmont yesterday. When has it been on the most up list with the stock market down sharply. This contrasts starkly with the previous days as Newmont weakened with the market. My guess is that it should be proctored for its relative strength. A sharp move up above the $43 level and a weak market would be immensely positive. The Rydex PM Fund is a point only seen at major lows. The XAU and HUI look like 2002 revisited after the crash. If so, we should start to see very positive action in the golds.
    Jay (Taylor), if that is the gist of what Jim Rogers wrote, it reeks with smugness and pride. As we know, "Pride goes before a fall, and a haughty spirit before destruction."
    Take a look at the world markets after last week. It is pretty frightening. It looks like a panic coming up. Keep looking at NEM and the other major listed stocks for real divergence. If we don't bounce after the opening on Monday, we might be into it. Chuck
    http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/03osex.html
    and then again this early afternoon:
    So far the market has behaved as hoped. I assumed that the market would try to rally all day especially with the Fed meeting. It has a very heavy feel to you considering the drop of the past few days. Also, I liked to see the major article in Barrons on a bank positively comparing it to Citigroup.
    And for gold, given the bounce in the dollar and the Pavlovian drop in the shares, it is also performing well, now over $400 even with some upward pressure in the buck. I would assume that the dark forces will try to close it under the round number and say "so there." But the next move might follow the Fed's rate decision. They are between the proverbial rock and a harder place at this point. I am assuming that any decision will have negative consequences upon the market, but I have said this before.
    One day soon, the calm and confidence will give way to a scary volatility. I believe we are in transition here. Chuck
    A potentially devastating development for US financial markets:
    WASHINGTON Aug 8 : Voracious purchases of US Treasury bills by Asian central banks are coming under scrutiny ahead of presidential elections amid concerns over national security and a ballooning current account deficit.


    Led by Japan and China, Asian economies have been gobbling up US dollar based assets, particularly US Treasuries running into hundreds of billions of dollars, over the last two years.


    By investing in US securities, the Asian economies stash away proceeds from selling their own currencies in an attempt to prevent them from rising against the dollar and so making their exports cheaper and more appealing to American consumers.


    Some say that while the massive Asian holdings may keep US interest rates low and help bankroll America's debts, they are propping up the US record 541.8 billion dollar current account deficit -- the balance of goods and services between US and the rest of the world.


    Others fear that such immense US wealth in foreign hands could boomerang if, for example, the assets are unloaded abruptly in a deliberate attempt to destroy the American economy.


    Lawrence Summers, Harvard University President and US Treasury Secretary under ex-President Bill Clinton, likened the Asian purchases to hoarding of gold by European states centuries ago.


    "Much has been made of US dependence on foreign energy, but the country's dependence on foreign cash is even more distressing," Summers said in the latest issue of the US magazine, Foreign Policy.


    "In a real sense, the countries that hold US currency and securities in their banks also hold US prosperity in their hands," he said. "That prospect should make Americans uncomfortable."


    Foreigners already hold almost 40 percent of marketable US Treasury debt. The Asian central banks have increased their holdings of US assets to about one trillion dollars, according to market estimates….
    - AFP
    Meanwhile, Summers (now the President of Harvard), one of the major proponents of the gold price suppression scheme and the US strong dollar policy, is going to have to crawl into a hole one day when it is exposed how he was instrumental in cultivating what is ahead. He and Robert Rubin will go down as some of the baddest financial market characters in the history of our once great nation.
    With Iraq completely falling apart, it was hard to pass this one up too:
    In his memoirs, "A World Transformed," written five years ago, George Bush Sr. wrote the following to explain why he didn't go after Saddam Hussein at the end of the Gulf War.


    "Trying to eliminate Saddam...would have incurred incalculable human and political costs. Apprehending him was probably impossible.... We would have been forced to occupy Baghdad and, in effect, rule Iraq.... There was no viable "exit strategy" we could see, violating another of our principles. Furthermore, we had been consciously trying to set a pattern for handling aggression in the post-Cold War world. Going in and occupying Iraq, thus unilaterally exceeding the United Nations' mandate, would have destroyed the precedent of international response to aggression that we hoped to establish. Had we gone the invasion route, the United States could conceivably still be an occupying power in a bitterly hostile land."


    If only his son could read!!!!!
    ***
    Latest Iraq scorecard:
    *400 Iraqi dead yesterday. How many friends and family members will this affect?
    *More US soldiers dead in June and July this year than last year with this August running ahead of this past July.
    *An arrest warrant out for Ahmed Chalabi, the man who sat next to Mrs. Bush at The State of The Union address in January and who the neo-cons in the Bush Administration relied on to give them intelligence on Iraq before the war.
    *Oil exports were shut down.
    Some thoughts from a Swiss Café member on Sunday:
    Bill
    The surge of the oil price over 40 us$ recently appears to be one of the key factors in a chain of reactions leading to a weakening US economy, and the significant drop in the DJIA and the $ on Friday, with the corresponding surge in the POG to 399 $/oz.


    The Fed may be able to manipulate many things, but oil may not be one of them, (currently at any rate).


    In this respect another key event is looming in this critical month of August, the Venezuelan vote on August 15th.Latest indications are Chavez may win. Chavez's popularity has gained recently as he has pumped increasing oil revenue(from the rising oil
    price) into social programs into the economy.


    Chavez Likely to Win August Recall-Venezuela Poll
    http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/reuters20040727_493.html
    The Fed's decision next week on whether to raise interest rates or not looks increasingly to be a lose-lose situation for them. If they raise rates, the already weekend DOW may decline in an orderly fashion, or even crash. If they dont raise, the $ may crash and they could lose control of the POG.


    Similarly the Chavez vote could lead to higher oil prices no matter the outcome, once the uncertainty of the vote is removed..
    If Chavez wins, the threat of a potential oil embargo against the US will hang over the markets, if Chavez perceives the US moving against him. If he loses, there is a heightened risk of unrest and oil production disruptions.


    Facit: "Cave Ides Augustus" Beware the ides of August, and talking of soothsayers, it would be interesting to hear Mahendras latest thoughts on the oil price situation? August 15th I will be on Chavez / oil watch.


    All JMHO and definitely not investment advice.


    Best
    Alan
    Bill
    This article gives more specific background to my commentary on Venezuela of 06.08.04, in particular this extract:
    "The United States is the biggest single buyer of Venezuela's oil, but Chavez accuses President Bush (news - web sites) of trying to topple him and has threatened to cut off oil shipments if the United States intervenes in its affairs.
    Washington rejects these accusations.
    SAYS OPPOSITION INCAPABLE
    Dismissing his opponents as incapable of ruling, Chavez warned the U.S. government that defeat for him in the referendum could trigger unrest and instability in Venezuela, which could send already high oil prices shooting up to $100 a barrel." –END-
    http://story.news.yahoo.com/ne…m/venezuela_referendum_dc
    Best
    Alan
    Here is a link to Wm. J. Murray’s (not to be confused with Wm. J. Murphy’s) web site on silver:
    http://www.minersmanual.com/silverarticle.php?SA_ID=190
    ***
    One precious metals company after another is reporting disappointing earnings. Relative to companies in other financial market sectors, these disappointments rank our sector near the bottom as far as under achieving for the last quarter is concerned. Costs keep going up, while the prices of gold and silver are capped because of the price capping. The CEO’s of these companies should be screaming bloody murder about what The Gold Cartel is doing to their firms. What a bunch of powder puffs as a group! Shareholders ought to be irate about their bewildering silence. The outrage from my perspective continues on all counts. Here’s another example of disappointment in this inept and disfunctional industry:
    NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. (NYSE:CDE - News), which has made a $1.8 billion unsolicited bid for Canadian miner Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. (Toronto:WRM.TO - News), on Monday reported a wider quarterly loss and said it will restate its results for last year and the first quarter.
    The Coeur d'Alene, Idaho-based silver miner posted a second-quarter net loss of $5.4 million, or 3 cents per share. That compares with a net loss of $4.1 million, or 3 cents per share, in the same quarter last year when the company had fewer shares outstanding.
    -END-
    The psychology regarding the gold and stock market shares is extraordinary, interventionalism or no. After the news the market received on Friday and the resulting dramatic moves in the markets, one would have expected some follow throughs in the early going today. Wrong! The US stock market was bid right up before the opening and the gold shares were hit fairly hard right off the bat.
    Investors refuse to dump their general market shares, holding on until they can recoup losses and yet, gold share investors can’t wait to sell. It is almost surreal. It is as if the investment world is in complete denial of the realities of what is really going on out there from an economic, financial market viewpoint.
    The gold shares regained most of their early losses on light volume. The HUI finished at 183.27, down .35, while the XAU lost .36 to 86.32.
    Gold has become pressure cooker-like, yet off the radar investment screen for most. This is extremely bullish. It could blow at any time!
    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
    MIDAS

    ÖLPREIS-KOLLER


    "Das wirkt wie eine Steuererhöhung"


    Der Ölpreis kennt nur eine Richtung - aufwärts. In New York notierte der Barrel schon wieder auf einem neuen Rekordhoch. Führende deutsche Volkswirte schlagen Alarm - sie befürchten eine kräftige Abschwächung des weltweiten Wirtschaftswachstums.


    Washington/Hamburg - An der wichtigsten Ölbörse der Welt, der New Yorker Nymex, wurde im Handel am Nachmittag (Ortszeit) ein neuer Rekordwert von 44,95 Dollar pro Barrel (159 Liter) registriert. Dies war exakt ein Dollar mehr als am Freitag. Auch in London wurde mit 41,38 Dollar ein neuer Höchstwert erreicht, der 75 Cent über dem am Freitag lag.


    Als Gründe für den neuerlichen Höhenflug des Ölpreises nannten Analysten neue Sorgen um die Zukunft des russischen Erdölgiganten Jukos sowie die vorläufige Einstellung der Ölförderung im südlichen Irak, wo die Southern Oil Company nach eigenen Angaben Anschläge befürchtete. 90 Prozent der irakischen Ölexporte werden von der südlichen Stadt Basra aus weiterbefördert.


    Im weltweiten Durchschnitt näherte sich der Ölpreis in der vergangenen Woche der 40-Dollar-Marke an. Ein Barrel (159 Liter) Opec-Öl kostete im Wochenmittel 39,13 Dollar, nach 37,40 Dollar in der Woche davor, wie die Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder in Wien mitteilte. Allein am Freitag gab es einen Preissprung auf 39,67 Dollar.
    Der hohe Ölpreis droht nach Einschätzung führender Volkswirte die Konjunktur spürbar zu belasten. "Ein Ölpreis über 40 Dollar ist ganz klar ein Alarmsignal", sagte Allianz-Chefvolkswirt Michael Heise der "Financial Times Deutschland". Deka-Bank-Chefvolkswirt Ulrich Kater sagte: "Wenn die Preise längere Zeit da verharren, wo sie derzeit sind, müssten wir unsere Prognose senken."


    Laut Heise bedeutet ein anhaltend hoher Ölpreis von mehr als 40 Dollar "eine kräftige Abschwächung" des Wachstums sowohl in Europa als auch in den USA. "In meinen Augen sind die Gefahren der Ölpreise in den vergangenen Monaten unterschätzt worden", sagte Heise dem Blatt.


    "Der hohe Ölpreis wirkt wie eine Steuererhöhung", sagte der Europa-Chefvolkswirt der Deutschen Bank Thomas Mayer. Konsumenten und Firmen würden durch die höheren Energiekosten belastet; zugleich würden die Ölförderländer nicht ihre ganzen Mehreinnahmen für Waren aus den Industrieländern ausgeben. Ähnlich äußerte sich Kater: "Bei steigenden Benzinpreisen bleibt den Verbrauchern weniger Geld für anderen Konsum."

    August 10 - Gold $399.90 down 40 cents – Silver $6.70 down 1 cent


    JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs Force Stock Market Higher


    "Endurance is nobler than strength, and patience than beauty." --John Ruskin


    Woke up this morning and the S&P was called 3 higher and gold $1.50 lower. Why?


    Fed meeting and announcement, that’s why. No other visible explanation. The Working Group on Financial Markets is able to influence the S&P easier before the market opens when there they don’t have to compete with the cash market. Once the stock market did open, they were all over it. The buyers? You guessed it – JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, who bought 2500 lots before mid-day.


    As many of you have noted recently, the gold rigging just gets more blatant by the week. With the euro up over .30, oil hitting $45 before correcting, interest rates down and silver up on the session, gold was kept on the defensive all morning. It managed to poke its ahead above unchanged for a brief bit, but was then taken right back down.


    The gold open interest fell 2627 contracts to 216,991. Less and less specs want to take on the cabal in this rigged casino.


    Not much else to bring to your attention. This one was a real snoozer.


    After the Fed announcement, in which they said little except to acknowledge rising oil prices were affecting the economy to some degree, the dollar took off and the euro was bopped. As soon as gold reopened in the access market, it fell $2.50 – just as the price managers planned it.


    Silver was very firm until late in the session, rallying up 8 cents before it turned back down. Silver has twice attempted to close above major technical resistance at $6.75 and has failed to do so.


    The silver open interest fell 603 lots to 97,722.


    The silver warehouse stocks fell another 579,740 ounces to 110,969,634. That bodes well for the future.


    The dollar rose after the Fed announcement to 88.93, up .44, while the euro lost .39 to 122.31.


    Bonds didn’t react that much to the Fed, only falling 12/32 to 110 10/32.


    Crude oil fell 32 cents to $44.52 after crossing $45 per barrel. Iraq says they are going to make an attempt at exporting oil again.


    What we need is for gold to come in lower tomorrow, take a quick beating and then reverse course to close $5 or $6 higher.

    The John Brimelow Report


    Can the Bears be complacent?


    Tuesday, August 10, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.25, PM $5.06, with world gold at $398.90 and $399.10. Slightly below, and more or less at, legal import point. After faltering during the day, the rupee ended firmer on several pieces of positive news. Calpers was reported to be starting a buy program in Indian equities, an IPO of a big Para-statal appears to be shaping up well, and recent comments on the Monsoon are encouraging. (On the latter, see


    http://www.imd.ernet.in/sectio…namic/weelly-rainfall.htm )


    If India can accept this new level of world gold quickly, which today seems possible, it will be a big positive for general gold price prospects.


    In Japan, mild liquidation by the public continues. Open interest slipped the equivalent of 432 Comex lots, only the equivalent of 15,795 Comex lots traded (18% above Monday) and world gold was $1 below NY at the end (although the active contract finished up 5 yen). Such speculative enthusiasm as exists in the Japanese high summer is focused on platinum. In Japanese hours platinum reached a two month high. (By value, the TOCOM platinum contract today traded 77% of gold, open interest is 61% as large.) The conventional view is that Asian appetite for platinum at present is related to auto catalyst applications. However, the revival of gold imports into Japan at the same time suggests that maybe jewelry demand there is reviving at last.


    Yesterday in NY gold traded only 22,545 lots, with open interest falling a rather steep 2,625 contracts.


    All gold operators appear to be using an unusually extreme obsession with the Fed a rationalization for nothing happening, or being done. This is verging on complacency. One notes, courtesy thebulliondesk.com, a monthly report from Commonwealth Bank of Australia entitled "Snoring Boring" which, although it does manage to notice:


    "The drop to USD390/oz (and below) in late July attracted very strong physical demand, especially from India. Jewellery manufacturers have been keen to take advantage of the lower prices. India’s monsoon rains have picked up in recent weeks... Elsewhere, the Middle East is seeing steady demand, as high oil prices boost regional incomes."


    totally misses the huge swings in open interest which were associated with early July’s breakout attempt, and late July’s breakdown attempt. Based on the recent Turkish data, also, Middle East demand is more than steady! (Standard London’s reported Dubai kilo bar prices continued to show appreciable premiums this week.)


    JB

    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    Loony Tunes reigns!


    WASHINGTON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve on Tuesday raised interest rates another quarter of a percentage point to head off potential inflation, saying the economy was poised to pick up after a recent slowdown.


    The unanimous decision by the U.S. central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee moves the benchmark federal funds rate -- which influences credit costs throughout the economy -- to 1.5 percent. It was the second quarter-point increase this year, following one announced on June 30 after the last FOMC meeting.


    The Fed action came despite anemic job growth in July as well as soaring oil prices that hit records above $45 a barrel on Tuesday. –END-


    What can you say? Once I heard JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs were the big early buyers of the S&P contracts, I knew the rig was in for the day. They had their marching orders from The Working Group on Financial Markets to get the job done to reverse the recent stock market swoon. PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY. The price managers wanted Greenspan and the Fed to receive a vote of confidence from the markets and that’s what they got.


    The DOW soared 130 points to 9944, while the beleaguered DOG leaped 34 to 1808. The effort to bully the markets in their desired direction grows by the month. GATA make you sick.


    Other economic news:


    08:30 Q2 Non-farm productivity reported 2.9% vs. consensus 2%
    Unit Labor Costs reported 1.9% vs. consensus 2%. Prior readings were revised to 3.7% and 0.3%, from 3.8% and 0.8%, respectively.
    * * * * *


    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The productivity of U.S. businesses rose at a swifter-than-expected pace in the second quarter but labor costs still gained at their fastest rate in two years, the government said on Tuesday.


    Nonfarm business productivity rose at a 2.9 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the Labor Department said, well ahead of the 2 percent gain expected by Wall Street.


    Despite the solid efficiency gains, the cost of labor per unit of production increased at a 1.9 percent clip as hourly compensation, which includes both wages and benefit costs, climbed at a sharp 4.9 percent rate. The rise in unit labor costs was just below the 2 percent increase forecast by private economists….


    Houston’s Dan Norcini on the Fed:


    Hi Bill:
    I am enclosing the full statement issued by the Federal Open Market Committee and some commentary as well.
    Best,
    Dan


    Release Date: August 10, 2004


    The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-1/2 percent.


    The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. In recent months, output growth has moderated and the pace of improvement in labor market conditions has slowed. This softness likely owes importantly to the substantial rise in energy prices. The economy nevertheless appears poised to resume a stronger pace of expansion going forward. Inflation has been somewhat elevated this year, though a portion of the rise in prices seems to reflect transitory factors.


    The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters are roughly equal. With underlying inflation still expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.


    Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole.


    In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 2-1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.


    Dan’s comments:


    So, the divine ones have spoken at long last. We mere mortals are truly blessed as we have now all heard from on high. Let us rejoice in the wisdom that has been imparted to us.


    Such is the incredible gullibility of the general public these days that there still remains investors who actually give credibility to these regular annunciations from the FOMC.


    Let me provide a similar announcement to illustrate the absurdity of what we were treated to this afternoon at 1:15 PM CST:


    From the Federal Reserve Bureau of Meteorology:


    The weather pattern thus far this year has been for the most part fairly pleasant. Sunny days with blue skies have predominated and for that we take most, if not all of the credit due to our wise and skillful ability to manipulate the jet stream. Recently however, there seems to be a return to an unfortunate pattern of grey skies and clouds that has resulted in diminished fun and games for all. Not to worry however, we believe that these gray skies and clouds will disappear fairly soon. As a matter of fact, we can say two things with exact certitude – the sun will definitely shine again at some point and that if the sky is not gray, it will indeed be blue. We think we know when this will happen but cannot say so with absolute confidence since the forecast could go either way right now. However we are relying on our superior knowledge and abilities to manipulate the jet stream as we stand ready to move it whatever way is necessary to produce the weather pattern that will please the most people.


    In the meantime, the transitory influences that have produced the grey skies, most notably the category 5 hurricane that is just offshore the southern coast, is really more of an inconvenience and we expect it to go away without much fuss. Since we are not concerned with it, neither should you be.


    Until the next time we gather to produce another erudite announcement, we bid you peasants a fond farewell and trust that you will rest a bit more securely in the knowledge that we are looking out for you and have your best interests at heart. Chumps!


    Signed:


    Your beneficent masters.
    The Fed.,


    Alan, Tim, Ben, Susan, Roger, Ed, Tom, Don, Cathy, Mark, Sandy, Bill


    The simple truth is the Fed was forced into hiking the 25 basis points to save face since Greenspan cannot well afford to look incompetent after boxing himself into a corner with his irrational prognostications a mere few weeks ago. Three questions I have for Mr. Greenspan since he stated that a "portion of the rise in prices reflects transitory factors".


    One – define the word "transitory". Is it six months, one year, two years, etc.? How long will high crude prices be here to stay and what conditions can he see that the rest of us cannot see that will bring crude prices back down to within former price levels? Is it increased production? Is it reduced demand? Which is it? Please clarify and enlighten us O wise one. Last I heard the some of the oil majors did not want any more Saudi HEAVY crude.


    Oh, by the way Alan, about that hurricane -


    Crude oil prices hit a peak above $45 – the highest price in 21 years while levels of indebtedness have gone parabolic.


    Two – if "a portion" of the rise in prices reflects transitory factors, what portion is it? 20%, 30%, 50%, 75%? Clarification would be most beneficial to us dolts.


    Three - what are the other factors outside of the "portion" that are responsible for this rise in prices? Could it be the Fed’s systematic debasement of the U.S. Dollar through it reckless monetary policy and its Bernanke Money Machine?


    You know full well Mr. Greenspan that the dollar is a disaster waiting to happen. How long do you intend to continue to run this con game? I suspect that you are a secret admirer of the late George C. Scott in his role as the famous Flim Flam man and really have had a life long fantasy to act out the role. I nominate you for an Academy Award sir, you are marvelous.


    Dan Norcini
    dnorcini@earthlink.net


    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:


    The Fed added $4.75 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today August 10th 2004, an action that left the pool unchanged at $44.269B.


    The DOW's 30-day ma sits on its lowest point for the move and bears watching as the Fed won't want it to dip farther...but do they still have it under control? Time will tell as they continue to apply their gradual upward futures-buying pressure. There's no Fed panic being shown in the repo pool even though it may be there elsewhere. Take M1 for an example.


    M1 and inflation


    Dan Norcini's recent comparison here at the café between the CPI and M1 reveals that M1 seasonally adjusted data closely tracks the CPI, thus we may use it as a proxy for the now adulterated CPI values. As Dan suggests, inflation IS the growth of money so we are fairly safe in this move.


    Take a close look at the recent M1 percent changes. Firstly, we see that inflation as measured by the growth of M1 runs at 9% per year and has just recently shot up even higher. Your portfolio not returning 9%? You're losing "money". Indeed, the big up move in May 2004 matches the hammer on gold that began in early-April.


    DIVG's 200-day ma, M1 and oil


    What caught my attention on the May 24th M1 up shoot date was the correlation between the beginning of the Fed's force application on the DIVG's all-important 200-day ma yellow line (which necessarily had to begin BEFORE May 24th, in early April) and the loss of control in M1 (inflation) which appears, in turn correlated to the loss of the oil monster. One can see this force application just as the 200-ma yellow line changes from linear to a rounding off pattern (completed yesterday).


    That monster's fire breath is hinting that the SPR may be all but depleted, disastrously exposing the US trade deficit to the full force of a supply and demand market condition. When Wall Street pundits act befuddled as to why the price of oil is so high, they NEVER say its because the SPR is drained (all remaining stocks sold forward as derivatives). The normal supply of that reserve is 57 days at the full daily use rate and we have been in the red zone of high selling usage for many more than 57 days.


    Another way to look at things is to ask whether the president would tolerate high oil prices at this juncture of a crucial political campaign if there were ANY way to avoid it...of course he wouldn't. Therefore he's being FORCED to accept the reality of a drained SPR and with it...high oil prices.


    Recall that the PM Fix was hammered right at the beginning of April which then took until late May to show up in the DIVG's 200-day ma. The Fed must have known back then that they were in deep trouble with oil and inflation and started moving against gold in order to remove it from the table of investment choices. Early April was the Fed's beginning move to hurt gold because they couldn't get oil down with their ME Army OR their SPR fuelled derivatives and high oil quickly forced a big rise in M1 and inflation.


    Floodgates


    The loss of M1 to the up side appears as the release of the feared hyper-inflationary floodgates. This helps to explain why, in addition to gold, the Fed has focused so hard on the bond rigs and let the DOW slip a bit.


    Without a replenished supply of gold to sell, this "policy" which amounts to frank inflationary denial, is as desperate as it seems.


    It is why the prudent investor should get metal as quickly as possible.
    Mike


    From Bill Fleckenstein’s commentary:


    A bear cupboard, bared
    My "defensive" position for this scenario: I am short tech stocks, and long foreign currencies, gold, Newmont Mining (NEM, news, msgs) and Pan American Silver (PAAS, news, msgs), of which I am a director. I recently sold all my silver bullion, just because I have so much exposure to these other areas (not to mention plenty of Pan American exposure), and it's the most volatile of all the things that I am long. If I didn't have such large positions in everything else, I would probably stay with my silver position. But you can't always kiss all the pretty girls. On the other hand, I am looking to re-establish my silver bullion position at some point, either on silver price weakness or dollar weakness.


    -END-


    A wonderful contrarian indicator? We shall see. All I know is the guy seemed to be long silver forever. Now, he gets out when silver pops a blip and gold is below $400???????
    Couldn't pass this one up. Needed a laugh after today's market shenanigans.


    Disappointing earnings continue to plague one gold producer after another. Durban Deep is the latest casualty:


    JOHANNESBURG, Aug 10 (Reuters) - The world's ninth biggest gold producer Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD) (DURJ.J) posted a halving in fourth-quarter cash operating profit on Tuesday, worse than expected, due to a robust rand and weaker output.


    The South African firm, kept afloat by its low-cost mines in Papua New Guinea, warned that rand strength would force more restructuring and job losses while it sought to keep diversifying with more overseas assets.


    "Faced with this pressure, we will continue to reposition our assets for the future and unfortunately this will lead to more job losses," Chief Executive Ian Murray said in a statement.


    The firm said cash operating profit for the three months to end-June was 61.7 million rand ($10.1 million), down from 130.4 million in the third quarter.


    It was expected to report a 37 percent fall in cash operating profit to 82.8 million rand, according to the average forecast of four analysts surveyed by Reuters.


    "It was really the costs in South Africa which were higher than expectations," said analyst Simon Kendall at UBS Securities….


    The firm also posted a headline loss per share of 265.1 cents compared with a headline profit of 17 cents in the third quarter. Headline earnings strip out capital, non-trading and extraordinary items.


    The firm sank to a loss due to higher depreciation and deferred tax adjustments, and after it made adjustments to the values of its South African operations based on the stronger rand, it said.


    The rand, trading at around 6.11 to the dollar on Tuesday, has appreciated close to 10 percent so far this year, making it one of the best performing currencies in the world.


    EXPANDS IN AUSTRALASIA


    Durban Deep, South Africa's fourth-largest gold producer, has been harder hit by the rand than some rivals due to its lower-grade mines, and has been expanding in Australasia to lessen its exposure to its home base and the volatile rand.


    The Australasian mines, which accounted for 31 percent of production, kept the firm in the black at an operating level by contributing 102.6 million rand in cash operating profit compared to a loss of 40.9 million from the South African mines.


    The company said gold output fell 5.1 percent quarter-on-quarter to 228,465 ounces while cash operating costs rose 9.7 percent to 76,031 rand per kg.


    The biggest loss-maker was the Blyvoor mine, which where costs at the underground operation were 104,664 rand per kg, compared to a current domestic gold price of around 78,000 rand per kg.


    DRD has given legal notice to trade unions that it plans to restructure Blyvoor after it underwent a similar operation last year at other local mines in the North West province.


    That restructuring resulted in the loss of 3,000 jobs and lower production from those two mines.


    DRD's latest move to expand overseas has been buying up more shares in Emperor Mines Ltd (Australia:EMP.AX - News), which mines in Fiji, boosting its stake to 45.33 percent from 19.6 percent.


    That move will increase DRD's attributable gold production in the Australasian region to around 350,000 ounces against a target of 400,000 ounces. In the 12 months to end-June, DRD produced a total of 905,023 ounces of gold.


    -END-


    Costs up, production down. Seems to be the trend all around. The fading "Roodeport Rocket" was pummeled, down 61 cents to $1.78. Good grief!


    The sad thing is these poor performances and job losses are totally unnecessary. For all that to go away, all that need be done is to have The Gold Cartel go away. If that were to happen, the price of gold would be sharply higher and it would be boom town time in South Africa instead of this continued misery. This is what GATA conveyed at our GATA African Gold Summit in Durban, SA on May 10, 2001. What a shame the SA Government, gold producers, etc., won’t run with the ball on this one and help themselves by exposing the gold scam.


    The CEO and Chairman of Goldcorp, Robert McEwen, was interviewed just now by Kramer and Kudlow on CNBC. It seemed clear to me and a few other Café members that Kudlow read the barrage some of us sent him about gold versus oil and his comments of three years ago. He remarked to McEwen that the price of gold was really lagging oil (guess he figured it better that he bring it up versus possibly being surprised). Kudlow served McEwen a softball and what does the CEO do but whiff, saying how the price of gold follows oil. Then Kudlow said, "no, gold historically leads oil." All McEwen had to say was the price of gold was being artificially suppressed by the major banks, which is the reason the gold/oil price relationship is not working these days. Instead, he gave it a pass, like all the other senior gold producer CEO’s do. McEwen may be a wonderful CEO, but he and his ilk are a major part of the gold problem and gold shareholders are paying the price for their diffidence.


    The XAU and HUI ran up early and then gave back almost all of those gains. The XAU closed at 86.46, up .14 and the HUI gained .28 to 183.55.


    You have to wonder when all this nonsense is finally going to end. Hard to say. It just goes on and on. The only thing I know for sure is it will end BADLY. Those staying the precious metals course will come out big winners.
    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS

    Appendix


    Global: The Mythical Recovery
    Stephen Roach (New York)


    From my jaundiced perspective, renewed weakness in the US economy hardly comes as a surprise. It’s an unmistakable outgrowth of an upturn that has been of highly dubious quality from the start. The consensus view is that America has entered nothing more than a "soft patch" -- the momentary lapses that most recoveries experience before resuming their upward march. Now that the major equity market indexes have all hit new lows for the year, there will undoubtedly be a rush of buy recommendations from that same optimistic consensus. My advice: Look before you leap at the siren song of the mythical recovery.


    This business cycle is different. The modern-day US economy has never had to struggle this hard to eke out an economic recovery. Plagued by an outsize shortfall of internal income generation, it has taken an unprecedented dose of fiscal and monetary stimulus to spark any semblance of cyclical revival. But the question all along has been, recovery at what cost? It’s a cost, in my view, that has been manifested in the form of an extraordinary array of imbalances -- record twin deficits (budget and current account), a massive household sector debt overhang, an unprecedented shortfall of domestic saving, and an asset-dependent support to aggregate demand. Lacking in the organic staying power of job creation and wage earnings, the US economy has become addicted to the steroids of extraordinary monetary and fiscal support. But with policy levers pushed to the max, the lifeline of support is now dangerously thin. For such an unbalanced and vulnerable economy, it doesn’t take much of a shock to put a low-quality recovery in trouble. As bad luck would have it, that’s precisely the risk as oil has once again entered the macro equation.


    I have held this dour view for about five years -- since 2000, to be precise. My basic concern was that America’s post-bubble carnage would take a lasting toll on the recovery dynamic. An accelerated pace of globalization and the related pressures of what I have called the global labor arbitrage only intensified my concerns. This view served me well for the first four years of America’s post-bubble workout but didn’t work all that well over the four-quarter period from 2Q03 through 2Q04, when real GDP growth averaged 5.1%. But now with momentum on the wane again, it pays to ponder the downside. In my view, recent data unmask five key myths to the case for sustainable economic recovery in the US and in the broader global economy:


    Myth #1: The US economy has achieved the critical mass of a self-sustaining cyclical recovery. The theory is very straight-forward: Jobless recoveries don’t generate enough income to drive consumer demand. Counter-cyclical policy stimulus -- fiscal as well as monetary -- can fill the void, sparking an inventory and production dynamic that spurs income and spending growth. From there, the "multipliers" take over, and the self-sustaining recovery can then successfully be weaned from policy stimulus.


    It’s a good theory but it’s not working. It’s not just that job creation has averaged an anemic 55,000 per month over June and July. It’s that this recovery has been accompanied by the weakest employment profile on record. In only three of the 32 months of this recovery has job growth exceeded 200,000; by contrast, in looking at the average profile of the past six cycles, that threshold was exceeded 14 times over the comparable 32-month time frame. By our calculations, private nonfarm payrolls are currently 8.1 million workers below the path of the typical hiring-led recovery. Lacking in job creation, real wage and salary disbursements -- the key organic driver of household purchasing power -- are running $323 billion below the typical recovery profile. All this speaks of the absence of the critical mass for self-sustaining recovery.


    Myth #2: Imbalances don’t matter. Few can deny the severity of America’s imbalances -- a 5.1% current account deficit, a 4% federal budget deficit, a sub-2% net national saving rate, and household sector indebtedness that now exceeds 85% of GDP. Where the denial creeps in is with respect to the implications of these imbalances. America is special, goes the logic. The rest of the world is desperate for high-return dollar-denominated assets in the world’s most productive economy. That makes current-account and budget deficits a cinch to finance. Debt isn’t a problem because interest rates are still low -- at least for the moment. And who needs old fashioned income-based saving, when ever rising asset markets will do the job?


    The problem with this logic is that it turns orthodox macro inside out in an effort to justify the notion of sustainable imbalances. These new theories are always seductive. Supply-side economics promised self-financing tax cuts. The New Economy promised an ever-rising US equity market. And now yet another new paradigm argues that foreign investors will gladly foot the bill for a US economy that continues to push the envelope in living beyond its means. Let the record show that that the personal saving rate fell back to a rock-bottom 1.2% in June 2004. Lacking a cushion of income-based saving, over-extended and asset-dependent American consumers suddenly have their backs against the wall. As for the external financing conundrum, as they say in the mutual fund business, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The likelihood of a saving-short US economy continuing to run ever-wider current account deficits without suffering dollar and/or real interest rate consequences is close to zero, in my view. Imbalances matter -- now more than ever. Take a look a Pete Peterson’s latest book if you want the clearest and most honest explanation as to why (see Running on Empty, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York, 2004).


    Myth #3: Oil doesn’t matter. Every time oil prices go up, we are always subjected to the same dismissive cop-out: Since the energy efficiency of US GDP has continued to improve, the role of oil in shaping both production and consumption has steadily diminished. As such, the impact of a given increment in oil prices is not what it used to be. So don’t worry.


    I have never bought this one either. The record is pretty clear on this risk factor: Each of the five recessions since the early 1970s has been preceded by an oil shock in one form or another. The key question, in this instance, is whether the US has experienced a true oil shock. I have previously argued that while $40 oil hurts, it does not qualify as a full-blown shock; however, relative to the post-2000 average of $29 per barrel, a $50 price tag would have to be considered a shock (see my May 10 dispatch, "Global Wildcards"). Right now oil is hovering near the midpoint of those two possibilities -- hardly a comforting development. For an unbalanced US economy that lacks much of a cushion, the pain of $44 oil can hardly be minimized.


    Myth #4: Nothing stops the American consumer. This is widely perceived to be the Golden Age of US consumption. Recent trends add a good deal of credence to this presumption. Over the eight-year period, 1996 to 2003, real consumption expenditures rose at a 3.9% average annual rate -- well in excess of the 3.3% pace of real GDP growth over the same period. Nor did the consumer flinch in the aftermath of the burst equity bubble in early 2000. Lacking in income, consumers have become increasingly creative in levering their balance sheets and extracting purchasing power from assets in order to keep the magic alive. Most believe that this creativity remains an enduring feature of our times.


    No pun intended, but I continue to worry that the American consumer is living on borrowed time. Yes, debt is a key concern. Even with interest rates near 40-year lows, debt service burdens -- interest expenses relative to disposable personal income -- are near historical highs. The personal saving rate, as noted above, is near historical lows. Wage income generation, also as noted above, is lagging as never before. And, as the US property cycle nears its secular peak, asset-driven consumption strategies will be challenged as never before. All this speaks of a US consumer that is lacking in staying power and therefore vulnerable to the slightest of shocks. Oil is an obvious and immediate threat in that regard. Personal consumption expenditures rose at only a 1% annual rate in 2Q04 -- one-fourth the post-1995 trend and equaling the weakest quarterly increase since 1Q95. I have long been wary of betting against the American consumer. That bet is now more tempting than ever.


    Myth #5: The world is now on the cusp of synchronous recovery in the global economy. The hope here, of course, is that an unbalanced US-centric world has now been rebalanced, thereby providing the global economy with a broader platform of support. That, of course, would come in quite handy in the event of a shortfall in the US economy. On the surface, a broadening out of the global growth dynamic offers encouragement in this regard -- underscored by our estimates of 5% growth in the Japanese economy in 2004, 6.4% in Asia ex-Japan, and 4.7% in Latin America. Even in Europe, we have raised our sights recently to 2.1% in 2004.


    Don’t kid yourself. The world, in my view, remains very much a two-engine economy -- the US consumer on the demand side and the Chinese producer on the supply side. The American consumer, as just noted, is already on thin ice. And the Chinese producer is now being hit with a sharp blast of policy austerity in an effort to tame the excesses of a severely overheated economy. One lesson I have learned over the past decade is that it pays to heed the wishes of the Chinese leadership. We’ll get another slug of data from China this week, but in my view the case for a significant slowdown remains very much intact. Absent the twin dynamic from the US and China, the outlook elsewhere in this externally-dependent world should slow appreciably. The persistence of massive external imbalances in the global economy speaks of a non-US world that has failed to develop autonomous sources of domestic private consumption growth. Lacking in new growth engines, weakness in the US and China should put to rest the myth of a new synchronous recovery in the global economy.


    I’ve been on holiday for the past two weeks. Lots of family time and plenty of opportunity for reading, exercise, and something called relaxation. I stayed minimally connected and glanced at the screens once or twice a day. Re-entry is always a challenge and an opportunity -- a chance to see the world through a different lens. For my money, there can be no mistaking the reality check of this summer’s disappointing data. This recovery now looks more mythical than ever.
    -END-


    NEW YORK POST


    WHY AN INTEREST-RATE HIKE IS A BIG MISTAKE


    By JOHN CRUDELE


    August 10, 2004 -- THE Federal Reserve will be making an enormous mistake if it raises interest rates today.


    Nearly everyone is expecting Chairman Alan Greenspan and his rubber-stamp colleagues to push the so-called fed funds rate up another quarter point when the Central Bank's Open Market Committee meets today.


    This would be the second rate hike since late June as the Fed pursues its wrongheaded attempt to rein in an economy that — as last week's employment numbers clearly showed — is growing much too slowly already.


    To be fair to the Fed, there are some valid reasons that could justify a rate hike.


    Inflation is now running at more than 3 percent a year and Greenspan might want to raise rates now so he will be able to cut them later if he needs to do that.


    Lower economic growth means less demand for money, which means rates can't stay up. The dismal employment figures released last Friday caused the world bond market to push rates even lower.


    Like the hike that will probably come today, the June move made the Fed look completely out of step with economic reality. It erodes confidence.


    In last Thursday's column I said that Wall Street would be wrong when the employment numbers were released the following morning.


    With the experts expecting growth of anywhere between 215,000 and 300,000 jobs, the stock market was jolted when the actual increase for July was a meager 32,000 and June's already modest gain was reduced by 34,000 jobs.


    Most people are having a problem predicting the economy these days because I believe there is a difference between what is really going on and what the statistics say.


    The economy seems to be growing — but only moderately. The peaks (as we saw earlier this year) and the valleys (as we appear to be going through now) could simply be statistical distortion.


    For instance, the good growth in jobs this spring occurred only after the Labor Department made some very generous seasonal assumptions about positions being created at new companies. These companies might not really exist and, so, the jobs they are supposedly creating could also be make-believe.


    In Friday's jobs report, the Labor Department removed 91,000 jobs from the count for companies it believed — but couldn't prove — went out of business in July. Without that assumption, growth during the month would have been a still anemic — but slightly more acceptable — 123,000 jobs.


    But the problem goes deeper than that.


    Most forecasters based all their predictions for jobs on how fast the GDP is growing.


    But what goes into these GDP calculations has been changed so much over the past decade that 3 percent annual gross domestic product growth today isn't nearly as strong as it would have been a decade ago.


    The main reason is that the government has altered the way it calculates inflation, mainly so that Washington can pay less in cost of living increases to Social Security recipients and others.


    Not only is the economy broken because neither the Fed nor Congress can do anything, but the experts are being deceived en masse.


    * Please send e-mail to: jcrudele@nypost.com

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