Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

The John Brimelow Report

No one wants play

Friday, August 13, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.64, PM $5.87, with world gold at $393.90 and $393. Lavish, and adequate for legal imports. The rupee weakened in the afternoon. Indian auto sales in July were reported to be 18.1 % above the previous year. Financial year to date (post 3/31) sales are up 20.5%. India continues to prosper and this augers well for gold purchasing.

TOCOM responded sluggishly to gold’s fall in NY yesterday. Volume did rise 38% to a miserable 12,592 Comex equivalent, but open interest rose only 8 yen and world gold lost further ground, going out 65c below the NY close. Open interest did edge up, by the equivalent of 822 Comex lots. Once again, the Japanese speculative interest is focused on platinum, which traded 80% more than gold by value and hit a 3 1/2 month high. (NY yesterday traded 33,192 contracts. Open interest rose a whole 19 contracts.)

Despite dramatically positive macro news over the last two days, Oil, the US$, Trade deficit, anxiety over stocks – the speculative community is thoroughly cowed. Very light selling has been enough to contain the metal below sensitive moving averages.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Man, this PPT/Gold Cartel is one sad sack group. Clearly, the mission today was to keep gold below $400 and the DOW above 9800. Not even oil on its way to $47 per barrel, the Japanese stock market falling 271 to 10,787 and a potentially devastating hurricane in Florida was going to deter these market manipulators. The DOW took out 9800 late in the day, going down 30+ points, but then turned right around to close at 9825, up 11. The DOG moved up 5 to 1757.

Bombshell:

08:30 June Trade deficit reported $55.8B vs. consensus $47B
Prior deficit report revised to $46.9B from prior $46B.
* * * * *

Nothing in this one:

08:30 July PPI reported 0.1% vs. consensus 0.3%; ex-Food & Energy 0.1% vs. consensus 0.1%
June PPI unrevised from prior (0.3%); ex-Food & Energy unrevised from 0.2%.
* * * * *
Disappointing:

09:47 August Univ. of Michigan Confidence (prelim.) reported 94 vs. consensus 97.2
Final July reading was 96.7.
* * * * *

NEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated in early August, reversing July's increases, as expectations for the economy worsened, according to sources who saw a survey on Friday.

The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell to 94.0 in early August from 96.7 at the end of July, said market sources who saw the subscription-only report. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to rise to 97.50.

The current conditions component rose to 108.4 from 105.2 in July, but the expectations index dropped to 84.7 from 91.2 previously. –END-

Greenspan and Snow think alike:
BOCA RATON, Fla. Aug 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Friday predicated the slow pace of U.S. job growth seen in July will prove temporary, and said the economy remained poised for stronger growth.

"I believe the recent mild deceleration in job creation will be short-lived," Snow said in prepared remarks for delivery to a group of small-business leaders at a pharmaceuticals company.

"The underlying fundamentals of our economy are very strong. We've seen that tax cuts work and that job creation does follow economic growth," Snow added. –END-

Hard to imagine oil dips lasting too long with this going on:

China crude import growth holds strong at 40 pct
Friday August 13, 7:50 am ET

story: http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/040813/energy_china_imports_2.html

BEIJING, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Chinese crude imports, up 40 percent so far this year, show no sign of slowing despite high oil prices and government efforts to calm economic growth, latest monthly import data showed on Friday.
China, the world's second-largest oil consumer after the United States, imported 70.63 million tonnes or 2.49 million barrels per day of crude in the seven months to end-July, 39.5 percent above the same period of 2003, the official Xinhua news agency said on Friday.......-END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
I'm between tree lashing tasks this morning but have a few minutes to update things a bit. The Fed added $7.25 Billion in temps and this caused the repo pool to stay at $43.769 Billion.

Examining the pool's 30-day ma we see it beginning to round off in a kind of topping pattern even as the DOW's own 30-day ma leaks downward. The Fed doesn't act as if they care to much about the DOW but we DO see them all over the bond market and currency area...no weakness there at all.

DIVG

The 200-day ma DIVG's shows a very small up-tick but we shouldn't take this as a change just yet. More likely, it represents an oscillation pattern where it will move above then below the 343 ceiling. The apparent pattern, although very early, may represent a much tighter oscillation than we saw the Fed implement in 2003.

Such a tight ceiling in the DIVG is a kind of synthetic gold standard and the Fed chairman has said so in recent Hill testimony. Never mind that $400 per ounce is woefully inadequate to compensate miners and savvy investors know that a strategy like this is doomed to fail under inevitably rising physical demand. It is physical where the true leverage in precious metals lies.
Mike

More from Mike on oil:

Hi Bill:
With today's IPE Brent surge over $43 per bbl and the MCDI's mini swoon, oil has broken a four-year record at DIVO = 37.25. Doubtless this development can't be good news for the Fed's riggers as they are battered by absurd trade deficits.

Japan may not mind as they keep taking US treasuries, but others may begin balking at further acceptance of effectively diluted dollars.

The DIVO metric may be even more important than gold in judging the Fed's stress and eventual breaking point. Right now they are in a real bind.
Mike

Café member Robert Blumen has written an article called Debt and Delusion and can be read at:

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.aspx?control=1579

Should not what is good for the goose be good for the gander too?

U.S. Complains to Russia About Its Handling of YUKOS

Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:54 AM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration has complained to Russia about Moscow's clampdown on Russian oil major YUKOS and its driving effect on oil prices, U.S. officials said on Thursday. .... –END-

Didn't I read somewhere that a Russian central banker was concerned about the U.S. intervention/manipulation in the gold market? Isn't this the 'pot calling the kettle black?' Simply amazing isn't it?
Rob

Some thoughts from fellow Café members:

Dear Bill,
There has been so much negative gold sentiment lately. I feel compelled to offer another view.

Absent a severe down turn in the dollar, gold and silver will only move once enough derivative losses are inflicted on the banksters in other markets. Looking at the option activity in the DJX, NDX, and OEX, it appears that big players are trying to buy
this market higher. There is only one slight problem for them. It isn't working. As you know, the Dow and Nasdaq closed near its lows. The net new 52 week high-low figure has slowly trended downward on the NYSE and on the Nasdog. The stock market has topped and we are going significantly lower.

The manipulators are also in big trouble in the oil market. The action yesterday was almost comical. I believe many of the manipulators are so arrogant they think they can move any market whenever they want to. The law of supply and demand is going to teach these
people a lesson.

In the currency market, the WSJ reported that option volatility is at a 52 week low. This tells me we are on the verge of a big move in the dollar. Due to numerous factors that you have pointed out, I believe the big move in the dollar is down.

To sum up. I believe that we are now in the driver's seat. Over the coming weeks, the derivative losses
sustained by the manipulators will be horrendous in the stock, oil, and currency markets. As they get pummeled in these markets, gold and silver WILL rise to much higher levels.
Sincerely,
Paul Yusem

Dear Bill ....
Just wanted to drop you a quick line to thank you for the wonderful enlightenment I have received from the work you do through GATA and your website. It has been about six years now that I have liquidated my mutual funds to buy unhedged gold stocks. In spite of recent lackluster action in the precious metals arena; my portfolio remains well in excess of four times my initial capital investment. For the most part, the conviction required to make that move was found as a result of your Midas commentaries.
Recently you have been lamenting the poor traffic to lemetropole as well as investor indifference to the PM markets at this time. There is no doubt that the manipulators have played their cards to maximum effect not only undercutting the price but demoralizing investors as well. This in spite of very bullish fundamentals for gold and silver. Letters you published recently clearly illustrate the despair many investors now feel.

I suppose I should feel the same way but I don't. Instead of looking for an exit , I've left the frying pan for a prominent place in the fire . Late last month I finally opened my shop in which I am trading gold and silver. In the past it was merely investment capital at risk.

Now my entire life savings are on the line. The time is at hand in which you will be vindicated for encouraging folks to take a position in precious metals. For now the artificially low prices are a gift for those who already haven't diversified out of paper assets. The longer the "cabal" can maintain this, the more gold and silver folks can accumulate at these ridiculous low prices . In spite of the harm to equities and producing regions ; these low prices are a very temporary gift and there is a saying about looking in the mouth of gift horses....

Something that I found most curious about silver. When silver was sub $5.00 last year, it has never been cheaper in all of recorded history in terms of buying power. There are plenty of references to the cost of goods in ancient Greece , Rome and Asia in terms of various silver coinages . Silver now has far more uses , some of which are vital and not cheaply substituted and yet it commands very little buying power.
While it is is true that silver remains available, the cost of obtaining physical through the charter banks in Canada has risen disproportionately. Service charges are up by over .50 per oz on 100 oz bars and considerably more on smaller units. The typical premium on gold maple leafs is well over fifty dollars over spot. It is probably easy for the banks to switch potential physical buyers into paper on those sort of premiums.

I see that I am rambling and there is one more important thing I wanted to share with you. During the winter I provided you some info regarding a large silver purchase by a European fund. I still don't know who they are or for whom they were buying, if not for themselves. In spite of the bear raid on the Comex in March, my source remains very bullish and continues to buy silver as though his house is on fire and only 100 oz bars will put it out. I suspect we will be hearing more about this in the not too distant future.
Sincerely ....Jack Fortin (Jaxville Gold and Silver Trading)

Jack has set up shop in Red Deer , Alberta. His temporary web site:

http://www.jaxville.com/

Gold vs. Silver

Gold is not a commodity. It is not consumed. The ability to increase the absolute supply above ground is quite limited. A lot of gold is still held by governments as a reserve.

As confidence in fiat currency goes down, the price of gold in fiat currency goes up. Therefore, governments that issue fiat currency have a strong incentive to control the price of gold, and they have been doing just that.

Silver is 80% commodity and 20% currency. Most of the silver ever mined has been consumed. The amount of silver above ground could be doubled in a few years, not so gold.

Since silver is 20% currency, and as such, competes with fiat currencies. Governments that issue fiat currencies have been inclined to control its price, and they have. As such, industrial demand for silver has outstripped new supply for some time.

The price of silver will go up mainly as a function of industrial demand in light of a supply that has been controlled. For thirty years now industry has been eating up the world's supply of reserve silver.

As confidence in fiat currencies goes down, monetary demand for silver will go up and there will be a severe shortage of silver on the market. The price of silver will go up, as long as there is industrial demand for it.

However, monetary demand for silver is limited, because it is not a very reliable store of wealth since the supply is so variable. Ultimately the price of silver will go up enough to supply industry in the absence of the reserve silver that has been drawn down over the last thirty years.

Therefore the price of silver may go up by a factor of 3 to 5 times its current price in inflation adjusted dollars.

However, as faith in fiat currencies goes away, there is an almost unlimited demand for gold. Never mind that governments hold so much gold. When they realize that their fiat currencies are in trouble, they will be loath to sell what they hold, so there will be a severe price pinch.

In a real panic, the major supply of gold will be people selling their jewelry. The supply will be quite limited and the price could spike to tens or even hundreds of times the current, inflation-adjusted price. The only way that you will be able to cash in on this situation is if you are sitting on a hoard of physical. The stock will not go up as much because people don't trust companies to hold something of value for them as much as they trust themselves to hold the same thing in their own hand.

The size of the spike in the price of gold will depend on how badly shaken is the public's faith in the value of fiat currency.

The size of the spike in the price of silver will depend partly on the depth of above stated panic, and partly on how much industrial demand exists, which is, in a sense, inversely proportional to the panic. In other words, if there is a currency panic, then industry will shut down during that time. The price of silver will not go up as much in that case.

So, I think that it's a good idea to have both gold and silver. They are both going to go up a great deal in real value because the price of each of these has been suppressed, however, the amount and timing of the price spike in gold and in silver will depend on different conditions.
Vincent Bressler

The gold shares caught a quiet bid and rose. The XAU gained 2.20 to 87.84, while the HUI made to its downtrend line at 190. It finished the day at 189.85, up 4.72.

The set up for gold and silver to take off is here. The gold fundamentals are "10++++." Whose to say whether we can break loose from the shackles of the abomination holding gold down, but with oil going nuts and the dollar under pressure, it is going to be very difficult for the bad guys to keep doing what they are doing.

The gold and silver shares could come to life any day and really take off. Sweet thoughts for the weekend anyway.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Uh-Oh, Look What Happened to the Dollar
7 August 2004

For the past couple of weeks we have been watching and waiting to see if the dollar could reverse its long-standing downtrend. The market's verdict is now in, as is clear from the following chart of the US Dollar Index.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://goldmoney.com/en/images…arts/alert_2004-08-07.gif]

On Friday the dollar was slammed hard, and this chart of the Dollar Index shows the damage. But we should not be too surprised. The dollar in recent days has had every chance to break above its downtrend line. Instead, each time it tried to do so, there were more people willing to dump dollars than buy them.

Note how the Dollar Index was declining along the downtrend line for several days before Friday's thumping. That feeble performance was a sign of weakness, and that weakness finally manifest itself on Friday as economic reality set in.

The economic reality is of course that not everything is as rosy with the economy as politicians and the 'bubble-makers' at the Federal Reserve would want you to believe. For weeks, most everyone has been in a stupor waiting for lower oil prices, without giving much consideration to the damage already being wreaked on the economy by $2 gasoline.

This last point is important. The economy is slowing because of rising gasoline prices, which have diverted consumer dollars into energy and away from consumer goods. But rising gasoline prices have not yet reduced the demand for gasoline. So we should be looking for higher gas prices, which in turn will further raise inflationary concerns. Also, crude oil appears ready to stay above $40 given the tightness of supply and continuing strong demand.

This means that new lows for the dollar are already 'baked into the cake', given the rapidly climbing inflationary trends in the US and the slow pace at which the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates. The well-publicized 0.25% hike likely to be announced by the Fed on Tuesday is not going to make a difference.

In short, Federal Reserve actions suggest that they believe that the economy can better handle higher energy prices and more inflation than rising interest rates. The consequence is a lower dollar - and in time, much higher gold.

http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php

lest mal die Schuldenmaschine!!!

http://www.sgipt.org/politpsy/…m#Schulden-Wachstums-Rate

Hallo Uwe,

ja, die Art und Weise und vor allem die Geschwindigkeit mit der die US-
Staatsverschuldung voranschreitet, muss einem zu denken geben. Wir
sind meiner Meinung nach längst am "point of no return" angelangt.
Dieser Schuldenberg ist nicht mehr zurückzuzahlen. Schlimmer noch,
wenn man die Schuldenuhr betrachtet, dann kann man feststellen, dass
die ganze Sache aus den Fugen gerät. Ich wage es zu behaupten, dass
die US-Schulden bereits eine Eigendynamik entwickelt haben, die sich
nicht mehr aufhalten lässt. Greenspan hat es wohl zu weit getrieben, mit
seiner lockeren Fiskalpolitik.

Gruss

Warren

Die Tabelle mit der Entwicklung der Staatsschulden in den USA seit 1791 ist hochinteressant.

So etwas für Deutschland in diesem Jahrhundert bräuchte man noch. Insbesondere würde mich interessieren, wie sich die Staatsbankrotte (Große Inflation und Währungsreform ) auf die staatlichen Schulden ausgewirkt haben.

Im Verhältnis zum Bruttosozialprodukt liegen die USA und Deutschland mit ca 60-65% m.W nicht allzu weit auseinander. Nur, daß Deutschland diese Schuldenlast in viel kürzerer Zeit aufgebaut hat.

Hallo Ulfur,

schön dass sie Dir gefällt, ich weiss nicht genau ob ich so was auch auf
Lager habe, ich schaue mal.

Gruss

Warren

Gefunden, ist aber nicht so schön wie die US-Tabelle, ich schaue noch
mal.

http://www.sgipt.org/politpsy/finanz/stavers1.htm

PS: Die Tabelle findet sich relativ weit unten.

Oder wie wäre es mit dieser? Auch hier weiter unten, es ist auch ein
Vergleich angestellt mit den anderen EU Staaten.

http://www.staatsverschuldung-schuldenfalle.de/

Eine habe ich noch, ist aber alles nicht so gut aufgemacht wie die US
Tabelle.

http://www.sgipt.org/politpsy/finanz/stat/laender.htm

Hallo Ulfur, vergiss die Tabellen oben, jetzt habe ich es gefunden.
Tabelle befindet sich etwas weiter unten, beginnt aber im Jahre 1950.

http://www.sgipt.org/politpsy/finanz/schuldp/bbp.htm

Viele Grüsse

Warren

Warren,
danke für die Tabelle. (Jetzt fehlen mir nur noch die Zahlen vor 49, aus denen hervorgeht, wie sich der dt. Staat im 20.Jahrhundert mehrmals entschuldet hat)

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.stern.de/img/logo_stern_nav.gif]
Edelmetall

Gold ist wieder begehrte Geldanlage
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.stern.de/_content/52/84/528404/Gold500_pa_500.jpg]

Jahrelang fristete Gold bei Banken und Anlegern ein Mauerblümchendasein. In den 90ern galt das gelbe Edelmetall als fantasielos, renditeschwach und altbacken - Aktien waren hip. Jetzt ist es anders.

Der Goldpreis war im Keller. Seit einiger Zeit läuft es jedoch umgekehrt. Gold als Investment ist plötzlich wieder begehrt, eine Reihe von Banken hat neue Gold-Produkte aufgelegt. "Gold erlebt eine Renaissance", sagt der Chefvolkswirt der Dresdner Bank, Michael Heise. "Es ist eine Krisenwährung, und in der derzeitigen Krise flüchten sich die Menschen in die sichere Anlage."

Terrorwarnung macht Gold attraktiv
Die Goldhausse erklären Experten mit den Problemen der globalen Finanzmärkte. Geringes Wachstum, die verschuldeten Haushalte in den USA und Europa sowie Probleme bei Banken und Versicherungen machen Gold attraktiv. Der Aktien-Crash und die Terrorangst seit den Anschlägen vom 11. September 2001 lassen Anleger verstärkt zu dem schimmernden Edelmetall greifen. Die vom hohen Ölpreis geschürte Unsicherheit an den Börsen verstärkt den Trend.
Als Folge ist der Goldpreis immer mehr gestiegen. Kostete eine Feinunze Gold (31,1 Gramm) 1999 noch 250 US-Dollar, kletterte der Kurs Anfang 2004 auf 420 Dollar. Belastet durch Gewinnmitnahmen liegt er derzeit knapp unter 400 Dollar. Das sei aber nur ein kurzfristiger Durchhänger, sagen Analysten. "Bis Jahresende werden die Preise auf 450 Dollar anziehen. 2006 kann ich mir einen Preis von 600 Dollar vorstellen", sagt der Rohstoffexperte der Baden-Württembergischen Bank, Markus Mezger.

Gold als Inflationsversicherung
Seine Begründung lautet: "Gold spielt im Finanzwesen die Rolle einer Inflationsversicherung." Die meisten Analysten erwarten in diesem Jahr steigende Teuerungsraten in Europa und den USA. Aus Inflationsangst flüchteten viele Anleger ins sichere Gold. Zudem soll die Talfahrt des Dollar andauern. Die Faustregel lautet: Geht der Dollar in die Knie, glänzt Gold. Da die US-Notenbank und die Europäische Zentralbank die Zinsen auf historisch niedrigem Niveau halten, wird Gold wieder interessant.

Anleger sollten sich von den glänzenden Aussichten für die Kursentwicklung aber nicht blenden lassen: "Man muss sehr vorsichtig sein", sagt die Volkswirtin der Deka-Bank, Sandra Ebner. "Der Preisanstieg war nur gemessen in US-Dollar zu sehen." In Euro blieb der Goldpreis dagegen nahezu konstant, weil der Dollar gegenüber dem Euro so stark abwertete. Europäische Anleger gewannen 2003 nur knapp 4 Prozent, wenn sie Gold in den Tresor legten.

Lieber Zertifikate als Barren
Eines hingegen ist sicher: Gold erhält den Wert und verliert keine Kaufkraft. "Mit einer Unze Gold kann man sich zu jeder Zeit einen guten Anzug kaufen", sagt Experte Mezger. Die Banken empfehlen Anlegern grundsätzlich, Gold zur breiteren Risikostreuung ihrem Portfolio beizumischen. "Der Anteil von Gold am Depot sollte fünf bis zehn Prozent betragen", sagt der Zertifikate-Experte Heiko Weyand vom Bankhaus HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt. Kaum ein Kunde kaufe jedoch Barren oder Münzen wie den südafrikanischen Krügerrand oder den US-Eagle - physisches Gold wirft keine Zinsen ab.

Die große Mehrheit - etwa 90 Prozent der an Gold interessierten Kunden - investieren nach Weyands Erfahrung in Wertpapiere, die Zertifikate. Das gelte für Jung und Alt. Zertifikate entwickeln sich wie der Goldpreis und sind inzwischen in vielen Banken erhältlich. "Sie haben einen Mindestzins sowie eine Kapitalgarantie und bieten eine Absicherung gegen Währungsrisiken", zählt der Experte die Vorteile auf. Hoch spekulativ seien dagegen Optionsscheine sowie Minenaktien. Deren Kurse entwickeln sich parallel zum Metallpreis, allerdings mit höheren Ausschlägen - der Kunde gewinnt oder verliert überproportional.

"Zusätzliches Bonbon"
"Das ist nur etwas für Kenner", sagt Thomas Mai von der Verbraucherzentrale Hessen. Der Finanzexperte hält grundsätzlich nicht viel von Gold und empfiehlt es Ratsuchenden nur als "zuätzliches Bonbon" bei der Geldanlage. "Gold ist schön anzuschauen, aber man kann damit nicht planen und es ist nichts für die Altersvorsorge."

Marion Trimborn, dpa

Meldung vom 16. August 2004
http://www.stern.de/wirtschaft…x.html?id=528404&nv=hp_rt

Hallo Ulfur,

die Zeit von 1918 bis 1933

http://www.sgipt.org/politpsy/finanz/schuldp/weimar.htm

Das dritte Reich:

http://www.sgipt.org/politpsy/finanz/schuldp/hitler.htm

Und zum Schluss das Kaiserreich:

http://www.sgipt.org/politpsy/finanz/schuldp/dtreich.htm

Warren,
danke für die Tabellen.
Merkwürdig, daß für das bürokratische Deutschland etliche Zahlen über das Sozialprodukt nicht vorhanden sind. Die Staatsentschuldung durch die Große Inflation und die Währungsreform lassen sich dennoch nachvollziehen.
1944 war die Staatsverschuldung 379.800 Mio RM, 1950 begann man wieder mit 9.574 Mio DM )

-------------
Gute indische Goldnachfrage:
(Rajya Sabha = Indisches Parlament)

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.hindustantimes.com/on/img/headers/home_logo.gif]

Gold imports rise over 30% during April-June 2004
Press Trust of India
New Delhi, August 16

Gold imports into the country have jumped 30.7 per cent in April-June this fiscal, the Rajya Sabha was informed on Monday.
"The quantity of gold imports in the first quarter of 2004-05 is 202.55 tonne as compared to 154.92 tonne in the first quarter of the previous year," Minister of State for Commerce and Industry EVKS Elangovan said in a written reply.

The major countries from where gold is imported are Switzerland, South Africa, Australia, United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong and United Kingdom.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_950785,0002.htm

August 16 - Gold $402.50 up $3.90 – Silver $6.60 up 9 cents

Physical Gold Market, Like Mahendra, on FIRE!

"Above all things, never be afraid. The enemy who forces you to retreat is himself afraid of you at that very moment." Andre Maurois (1885 - 1967)

Today was a weird one. Gold was firm overnight, then sold off as the dollar rallied. However, right from the get-go the funds showed up in a major way to blow bullion through $400, taking it up nearly $6 in the early going. Refco and Morgan Stanley led the fund buying. It appeared the corrupt Gold Cartel was taken by surprise. Nevertheless, they regrouped quickly and JP Morgan Chase, along with some help from Mocatta, set it immediately back a few dollars. As is almost ALWAYS the case, gold made its high within the first half-hour to hour. Over and over again we see gold trade like no other market in history – thanks to the bums.

Meanwhile, the economic news was terrible, as we have seen so often of late:

08:30 Empire Manufacturing reports 12.57 vs. consensus 32.3
Prior reading revised to 35.75 from 36.54.
* * * * *

NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Business activity at New York state factories slowed sharply in early August, in one of the sharpest turnarounds in years, a survey said on Monday.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said the business conditions index of its Empire Manufacturing Survey slumped to 12.6 in August, the lowest reading this year and more than wiping out July's rise to 35.8. Analysts had been looking for the index to dip to 32.5.
"While 46 percent of respondents had reported improved conditions in July, only 28 percent -- the lowest level in more than a year -- did so in August," the Fed said. "Sixteen percent reported that conditions had worsened, compared with 10 percent last month."
The new orders index almost halved to 14.9 in August from 28.6 in July, while shipments tumbled to 11.9 from 34 in July.
"The unfilled orders index fell below zero for the first time since September of last year, with 13 percent of respondents reporting a rise in orders compared with 32 percent in July," said the Fed.
The Empire State prices paid index dipped to 49.6 in August from 56.4 the month before. Some 52 percent of respondents reported an increase in prices. The prices received index edged back to 16.3 from 18.0 in July.
The number of employees index bucked the trend, rising to 17.0 in August from 13.1 in July. The average workweek index remained volatile, diving to 6.8 from 22.5 in July.
The index measuring expectations for business conditions six-months ahead, eased to 47.6 in August from 52.8 in July.

-END-

Bad news, right? Not as far as the US markets were concerned. The dollar moved higher, bonds were hit and the stock market took off. How strange! It was like the entire investing world was expecting the terrorists to blow up the planet over the weekend and when they did not, markets reacted in decisive fashion. Why did gold move up then? For that very reason. Since the world didn’t blow up, The Gold Cartel was less inclined to spend their ammo here to hold it down. Had the terrorists struck, they would have been all over gold.

The dollar closed at 88.03, up .06. The euro fell .13 to 123.53, which was well off its low of 123.11. Bonds sank 21/32 to 110 22/32.

Wonderful to see gold move independently of the dollar, which should happen more and more in the days, weeks and months ahead.

A lot to report to you from the physical market front and add to John Brimelow’s superb input. London, as might recall, was looking for gold to start its move the last two weeks of August. So far, so good. Our British dealer source checked in today and is very upbeat. NEW buying has surfaced out of Saudi Arabia and the Far East, notably Hong Kong (heavy buying). The feeling from England is that if gold closes above $405, it will shoot up to $428/$430 very quickly. Our London source is looking for $456 by the end of the year and $500 in the first quarter to second quarter of next year.

Also heard from a different source that THE STALKER is back in the market, after a sustained absence, and is going to buy 1 BILLION worth of BULLION. Meanwhile, a smaller stalker may also enter the fray, to the tune of 100 million to 1 billion. We don’t know the amount. What we do know is they are only going to buy strength, or when gold is "jumping." We take that to mean it has to take out $405 first.

Word to me this afternoon is that Morgan Stanley was a monster buyer today and it is related to new fund buying in the cash market. This fits in perfectly with the information brought to your attention from my STALKER and London bullion dealer sources. This is good, very good!

Gold’s 200-day moving average is $400.50. Nice to see gold take it out so easily this morning. This close, above that average, should attract new buying tomorrow. No gaps to fill, which means we could get a breakaway gap at any time.

The gold open interest rose 1308 contracts to 219,496. As recently mentioned several times, there is room for more than 100,000 new spec longs to jump in and power gold through $430.

The December gold chart is looking good. Today's sharp, early rally took out the downtrend line formed since late last March:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/84

The weekly looks even better. Note how gold is breaking out of both a downtrend and a wedge formation:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W

Silver continues to creep up and to outperform gold.

The silver open interest dropped 250 contracts to 94,856, which is some 30,000 below its peak of earlier this year. Bummer of the day was the warehouse stocks went up by almost 2 million ounces.

Platinum is on fire. It closed at $881, up $19. This is the way gold should be trading, and will, some month soon.

Seems to me gold and silver, as mentioned last week, are ready to really pop. Everything is in place and FEW in the investment world and in the general public are paying any attention, as indicated by the continued abysmal Café Sentiment Indicator.

The John Brimelow Report

I$ 400 the level?

Monday, August 16 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.09, PM $5.17, with world gold at $400.70 and $398.90. Below, and adequate, for legal imports. Interestingly, the newly-low sales tax cities in the North are appreciably better placed to import gold. These observations are basis Bombay.

The Indian Government has announced that gold imports in the April-June quarter were 47.63 tonnes - (30.7%)- above last year – 14.87 Mm ozs - an enormous number. Word Gold in rupees was not significantly changed in the period, since the rupee appreciated in the last year, so clearly the demand schedule for gold in India has shifted – very bad news for Bears

TOCOM saw gold at a 4 month high today (in yen) and continued to liquidate. Open interest fell the equivalent of 723 Comex lots to equal 96,453 Comex contacts; the active contract was up 11 yen and world gold went out $1.85 above the COMEX close at $400.50. (NY on Friday traded 46,384 lots; Open interest rose 1,310 contracts.)

Given the response of the dollar to Friday’s news, gold was sluggish. UBS remarks

"A rather modest performance given the record oil and weaker stock market"

and Barclays notes:

"Indeed, the most surprising thing so far has been how modest a reaction gold has had so far to the recent series of news events, particularly given the much more impressive gains in silver and platinum."

Both remarks fitting well with The Privateer’s weekend assessment:

"The most important feature on the weekly chart is the fact that the 40 week moving average (MA) is firmly above the 20 week moving…This week, and for the second week in a row, Gold has jumped back up to touch its longer term moving average on the last day of the week. Last week, it was a $US 7.60 up move. This week, Gold was up $US 4.60 on the Friday. The chart as a whole is making it more and more obvious that $US 400 has become the new "line in the sand" drawn by the financial authorities". (JB emphasis)

Given the apparent vitality of the physical market, $400 is not likely to prove a sensible level at which to take a stand.

The CFTC data appears to indicate that the downswing since the middle of July was accomplished by heavy shorting; the subsequent recovery has seen much of that eliminated. Whether the specs will soon have the courage to test the overhead resistance is the next question.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW leaped 129 to 9955, while the DOG rebounded 26 to 1782. Seems many, many market technicians were calling for a recovery from deeply oversold conditions.

Thank goodness for the foreigners:

09:01 June foreign holdings of Treasuries rose a net $71.8B in June
Note the demand for the 10-yr auction on 8/12 was very strong, with foreign demand cited as a reason.
* * * * *

Then again:

Bill,
Did you see that Caribbean banks bought 17 Billion in US assets? Meanwhile, the JAPANESE and CHINESE only purchased 1.9 Billion. The FED must have some offshore printing presses and by the way, you will not hear one word about this in the press.
Regards,
Sabregold

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Fed added $7.5 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today August 16th 2004, an action that upped the repo pool to $51.269Billion. The pattern of the pools' 30-day ma however continues to round off from its previous straight line phase ands we must watch this closely as it signals a change in Fed tactics. After being restrained by a removal of repo pool support early in 2004 the DOW has not regained its previous upward trend. Indeed, the DOW's 30-day ma has set a new low for the move.

Perhaps an event awaits in the near future that will somehow jump the DOW far higher. There does seem to be some "Diamonds" buying (DOW future contracts) from the primary dealers (according to sources) and they generally don't move without reason. The bond sentiment is also waning and why not with commodities screaming along, except for the controlled precious metals. Anyone measuring real interest rates must be aghast at their losses. Recall that real interest rates are the Fed Funds rate minus the CPI. However, the CPI is adulterated and untrustworthy so a better measure is the actual money growth figure of M1 and that number runs at 9% per year yielding a substantial negative value (1.51% - 9%= -7.5%). This is what one is losing each year if we utilize the M1 money growth as a proxy for an adulterated CPI.

Models

Hurricane Charley caused a great deal of consternation for some and relief for others when it changed course inland early Friday morning. I was spared a direct hit East of Tampa while others fared much worse. Seeing the videos of screaming winds, commercial buildings turned to rubble and steel construction architecture roofs ripped off is a sobering experience and the puny preparations I had made seem almost laughable in retrospect.

The fateful turn came as a surprise to expert NOAA meteorologists and their myriad of standard pressure-based computer models. Alone against the conventional view was a product called VIPIR. It is a model based only upon radar signatures and upper winds data. It called for the inland turn as early as Wednesday evening but the local NBC affiliate that had paid a small fortune for it didn't believe the results because they conflicted with Miami. Only when the storm actually began its move did the local broadcaster weather man remark about the conflict. His tone and emphasis told me that there had been a great deal on behind the scenes discussion about the conflict. It seems that Miami did not want to change the original track, preferring to keep evacuation orders in place. In any event the decision was retained until it had to be changed.

Lesson

There is a parallel involved between forecasting weather and attempting to predict the interventional actions of government operators suppressing commodities markets. Often the conventional TA wisdom fails.

Almost all the big speculators on Wall Street use standard TA models based upon the greed/fear, over sold, over bought paradigm espoused by Elliot Wave Analysis doctrine. The Fed interventionists know this all-too-well and exploit it as if they were playing a violin while the specs get blasted and act befuddled afterwards.

Their entire belief mechanism is flawed because it is based on a flawed principle...that the market is controlled by only two forces, buyers desiring profit and sellers fearing losses. Their "black box" models are equally flawed and useless against the third party Fed's attacks.

Until these large strategic commodity speculators wake up and appreciate that they are in an interventional war and their expensive computer weapons are simply outdated, they will continue to be blind-sided as badly as the poor souls flattened in Punta Gorda, Florida.

The key difference with this analogy is that the retirees had no say in choosing their defense models.

Today's DOW and Gold

Defying TA logic but exactly confirming interventional analysis, the PM Fix delivered another spike at 10AM EST while the DOW was rescued by 100 points just as it seemed sure to bomb. We sit at $403 per ounce but don't expect it to run too much higher. I hope I'm wrong.
Mike

Been salivating this past week to read Bill King’s analysis of the latest jobs numbers (he has been on vacation). Here it is:
The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Monday Aug. 16, 2004 – Issue 2974 "Independent View of the News"

While we were away the employment report was highly disappointing for the precise reason that we warned. The CES Business Birth/Death Rate was due to deduct jobs for July (-83k in ’03), and given the 182k jobs it manufactured for June, the July number would be down at least 265k jobs. The actual B/D rate for July was -93k…Economists that forecast a higher number based on 4 to 5-years ago and 30-years ago data do NOT understand their milieu. Today’s employment numbers cannot be compared to numbers from different years because they are compiled and tabulated differently.

There was no B/D Rate prior to a couple years ago. It was the ‘plug’ or ‘bias’ rate. And that did not start until 1985. Furthermore, the survey and its sampling have repeatedly been changed or altered. A year ago the BLS commenced altering seasonal adjustments each month. The previous few years, the seasonal adjustments were changed semiannually. And before that the seasonal adjustments were altered annually.

There are an inordinate number of economists and forecasters that don’t know or understand how certain economic data is compiled, calibrated or calculated; and they don’t know the methodology. Yet brokerage firms pay them princely sums for their wisdom that is based on faulty data, which is in violation of the ‘scientific process’ that is learned in most high schools.

As dawn follows night, permabulls immediately upon release of the grossly disappointing non-farm jobs number bellowed that the Household Survey is the better indicator of US economic strength. Of course they have not been reading our missives or they would’ve learned not only does the Fed and other bean counters adhere to the CES due to its superior surveying sample and means, but the Household Survey counts jobs that don’t exist and paychecks that don’t exist. Several times this past year we have included verbatim BLS verbiage that lists the numerous non-paycheck earning jobs that the BLS includes as a ‘job’ in the Household Survey.

If you lose your high-paying financial industry job and then become a day trader or hedge fund manager or consultant or web site operator or professional gambler or ‘talent’ scout, you are employed as far as the Household Survey is concerned, whether you have earnings or not. And if your spouse takes a job selling real estate or also becomes a consultant, your household now has produced a net 1 new job (2 new jobs minus your job loss). And if a formerly unemployed household member becomes your assistant or helper, your job loss has produced two new net jobs as far as the Household Survey is concerned.

For those that have not paid attention or are new to our report or are insufferable permabulls, we will once again cite the BLS verbatim from the "Employment Situation Explanatory Note" to its monthly employment report as to the questionable employment it counts as jobs.

"Household survey. The sample is selected to reflect the entire civilian noninstitutional population. Based on responses to a series of questions on work and job search activities, each person 16 years and over in a sample household is classified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.

People are classified as employed if they did any work at all as paid employees during the reference week; worked in their own business, profession, or on their own farm; or worked without pay at least 15 hours in a family business or farm. People are also counted as employed if they were temporarily absent from their jobs because of illness, bad weather, vacation, labor-management disputes, or personal reasons.

Differences in employment estimates. The numerous conceptual and methodological differences between the household and establishment surveys result in important distinctions in the employment estimates derived from the surveys. Among these are:

--The household survey includes agricultural workers, the self-employed, unpaid family workers, and private household workers among the employed. These groups are excluded from the establishment survey.

--The household survey includes people on unpaid leave among the employed. The establishment survey does not.

--The household survey is limited to workers 16 years of age and older. The establishment survey is not limited by age." http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm

The final arbiter of US jobs, IRS data, has shown little of no job growth the past few years, which contradicts the Household Survey.

You can ‘DK’ the ISM employment opinion surveys; they don’t include firms that have gone tapioca…PS - the household survey is subject to lying about one’s predicament – few people like telling strangers that they are indigent or unemployed. And there is the quality of jobs issue – as low paying gigs proliferate.

Remember the Atlanta example we mentioned in the spring? BLS said Atlanta had 84k new jobs in 2003, but the state later discovered that it had lost 65k jobs because the BLS did NOT sample closed firms.

California has discovered it has a big drop in jobs for July. San Francisco Chronicle: "California lost 17,300 payroll jobs in July, the state Employment Development Department reported Friday, an unexpected drop that overshadowed a slight dip to 6.1 percent in the state's unemployment rate." http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/…004/08/14/MNG51886891.DTL

-END-

The following was sent to me by

http://www.otcjournal.com/

It is well written and gets right to the point of where we are today regarding the US stock market. The bulls are running with their earnings argument for higher stock prices. The bears like me are pointing to the fact that the good news is all behind us and that the stock market’s continuing fade tells us what lies ahead:

***

The chart you are looking at (compliments of the Agile Trader) represents a very strange and rare anomaly. You won't see it very often, and it won't stay this way for very long. Something will break hard, either one way or another.

The black line represents the level of the S&P 500 since December of 1998. The blue line is the operating earnings of the S&P 500 over the same time frame.

Note that up until about March of this year, the lines have roughly followed each other. Prices generally lead earnings by a few months as the market adjusts for perceived growth or deterioration.

Point A on the chart represents the beginning of '00 decline. Point B represents the subsequent beginning of the earnings decline. Note the two events are about six months apart.

Point C represents an unusual anomaly. The price of the S&P has radically and visibly diverged from the earnings line. Prices have fallen sharply while earnings have continued to accelerate at the most rapid pace in six years. This divergence cannot last. The lines have to begin to move in the same direction in the near future.

Here's the Big Question- Which line will move towards the other? Is the market accurately forecasting an earnings collapse, wherein the blue line will turn down and follow the black line, or will the market shake off the current IOU (interest rates, oil, uncertainty) fears, and turn back up in concert with earnings? That is the $64,000 question, and the one we will explore today.

The bullish argument is simple; In a word: EARNINGS. Earnings estimates for the S&P 500 stand at $66.77 for '04, and $73.20 for CY '05 (9.3% growth). This is exactly the kind of earnings growth the market loves. Not too radical to the upside. Steady and sustainable.

The PE ratio for the trailing 52 weeks stands at 16.9. For the next 52 wks, the PE ratio stands at 15.3. These are historically low levels in a low interest rate environment. Even with the FED raising interest rates, their policy is still highly accommodative to growth.

From Thomson Financial on August 9th:

This quarter will represent the 4th consecutive quarter of 20% growth or better for the S&P 500 index, which has only occurred twice in the past 25 years. More companies are beating estimates and fewer companies are missing estimates than during an average quarter. With 450 companies reporting earnings, 69% have come in above analyst estimates, 16% have matched estimates, and 15% have come in below estimates. In a typical quarter, 58% of companies beat the estimates, 22% match estimates, and 20% miss the estimates. In the aggregate, companies are beating the estimates by 4.3%, which is below the record high 7.9% recorded in the Q104, but above the historical average of 3%.

In short, earnings are strong and rising. Earnings growth rates are subsiding, but still remain healthy. A number of the smaller issues I cover in the OTC Journal have reported growth, growth, growth, and the stocks keep going down, down, down.

-END-

THE SAD NEWS.

CNBC AND THEIR COMMENTATORS ARE RAVING ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND THAT RETAIL SALES ARE SURE TO IMPROVE, SEE WAL-MART'S STELLAR PERFORMANCE IN INCREASING THEIR SALES.

THE SAD NEWS IS THAT MILLIONS OF PEOPLE INCLUDING WEALTHY AND PREVIOUSLY WEALTHY AND MYSELF WHO USED TO NEVER SET A FOOT INTO WAL-MART NOW FIND IT NECESSARY TO BUDGET MUCH MORE STRINGENTLY. THE INCREASE IN WAL-MART TURNOVER IS IN MY VIEW SIMPLY PROOF HOW TOUGH IT IS GETTING IN NORTH AMERICA AND HOW MUCH POORER PEOPLE ARE OFF BECAUSE OF FAILED ECONOMIC POLICIES AND FRAUDULENT MARKET INTERFERENCE, CAUSING MILLIONS OF INVESTORS TO LOOSE FORTUNES.

CHINA'S TRADE SURPLUS WITH THE U.S., WHICH INCREASED FROM $12 BILLION TO $14 BILLION IS MOSTLY DUE TO WAL-MART.

THE JOKE.

CNBC GUEST COMMENTATOR, UPON HEARING THE HUGE TRADE DEFICIT FIGURES:

"THIS IS PROOF HOW GREAT THE AMERICAN ECONOMY IS DOING AND HOW POORLY THE ECONOMIES OF EUROPE AND ASIA ARE DOING. THE FOREIGNERS ARE TRULY DOING POORLY, BECAUSE THEY CANT AFFORD TO BUY AMERICAN PRODUCTS, WHILST AMERICANS ARE DOING GREAT, BECAUSE THEY CAN AFFORD TO BUY MORE FOREIGN PRODUCTS."
HAVE FUN
ELMAR

Unfortunately, Mahendra nailed it again. From his 2004 WORLD & FINANCIAL PROPHECIES book, Page 19 - second paragraph:

"A hurricane will once again hit the USA East coast area around August. The hurricane will result in heavy damage and the people in the affected area should therefore brace themselves."

The strongest hurricanes affecting Florida usually hit in September.

Mahendra Mania is breaking out all over. Even my ex-wife Karen subscribed to his service (http://www.mahendraprophesy.com). This weekend he alerted his subscribers to look for a stock market rally and for oil to fall 10 to 15%. Those who bought the opening on the one and sold the opening on the other have big smiles. Crude oil closed at $46, down 58 cents per barrel.

Spoke to the "M" man this afternoon. He is all excited about what is in store for gold and silver, not only in the next couple of days, but the next couple of months. Oh yes, he is long platinum too. It has rallied over $80 per ounce in three weeks:

October platinum
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/PL/A4

The HUI gapped up over its downtrend line on the opening and remained firm all day long, closing at 194.51, up 4.66

HUI
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

The XAU gained 1.85 to 89.69.

Chuck Cohen has been very impressed with the Newmont action. It keeps coming back and is very close to breaking out:
Newmont closed at $41.99, up $1.07.
http://new.stockwatch.com/swne…utilit_snapsh_result.aspx

Meanwhile, the smaller golds remain dismal. Some don’t even trade and many investors can’t wait to get out of them on rallies. Very strange, yet VERY BULLISH. As gold moves up from here, they will all take off all of sudden with no sellers in sight.

Frank Veneroso is VERY high on X-Cal Resources, who has been a stout GATA supporter for many years. I believe it is the largest holding in his gold fund. Frank says they have the real deal. Their CEO, Sean Kennedy, is top notch.

I am surprised from time to time by some of the responses I receive from Café members. For example, some do not realize that MIDAS is me, Bill Murphy. Don’t know why that is except I have not made it obvious to all. For others I have not made my background clear enough. Yes, I am a graduate of the School of Hotel Administration at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York and did play Pro Football with the Patriots about a hundred years ago.

Because of my anti-Wall Street/establishment views, one which have become more strident as the years have passed since The Café opened in early September 1998, other Café members probably think I am an angry radical and too downbeat on New York/Washington. Yes, I do think the elitists have taken America down the wrong path (big time), but it is a cultivated opinion acquired after focusing on the reality of the goings-on in Washington/Wall Street over the last six years. It is not anything I could have thought of in my wildest imagination based on where I started and from what I thought I knew just a number of years back.

....

Speaking of fun. Ironically, I just heard from an old friend whom I dated in New York as a bachelor when living in Manhattan. If any Café member is thinking about the hottest spot in Florida to go to, South Beach is it. It's something else. And if so, you might want to contact one clever woman, Rhonda Gainer, who knows the score down in that part of Florida. I know, I used to live in South Beach and was a part owner in a restaurant there before moving on to Coconut Grove, Florida, etc., and then on to DALLAS!

If you want to be on top of the South Beach scene, give my friend Rhonda a call. Voila:

http://www.ehopeinternational.com/secondsummer2004.html

Rhonda, another Cornellian and in great shape, is sharp as a tack!
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Jo mey, is schon ein scheiß, das me net so gut englisch könne........

Tabelle: Daten zum zweiten Quartal

Südafrikanische Goldförderer in Bedrängnis
Tieferer Goldpreis lässt Gewinne schrumpfen
Der Rückgang des Goldpreises hat im zweiten Quartal die Gewinne der Goldförderer weltweit schrumpfen lassen. Während nordamerikanische Produzenten die Einbussen noch ohne grössere Probleme zu verkraften scheinen, geraten südafrikanische Unternehmen langsam, aber sicher in Bedrängnis.


jpk. Kapstadt, Mitte August

Im zweiten Quartal 2004 hat der Goldpreis erstmals seit längerer Zeit eine spürbare Korrektur nach unten erlebt. Seit Anfang 2001 war der Preis mit Ausnahme einer äusserst geringen Korrektur im Juni-Quartal 2003 stets weiter nach oben gestiegen. Im Vergleich mit dem ersten Quartal 2004 ging der Preis im zweiten Vierteljahr um 4% auf 393 $/Unze zurück. Der Preisrückgang war vor allem auf die unerwartet starken Konjunkturdaten aus den USA und die staatlich verordnete Wachstumsdämpfung in China zu Beginn des Berichtsquartals zurückzuführen. Schwach blieb aber weiterhin auch die Nachfrage nach Gold aus dem Schmucksektor.

Unterschiedliche Perspektiven
Der schwächere Preis machte sich bei den Quartalsresultaten der Goldförderer bemerkbar. Die nordamerikanischen Förderer Newmont, Barrick und Placer Dome mussten wegen gleichzeitig gestiegener Produktionskosten und ausserordentlicher Aufwendungen alle drei einen zweistelligen Rückgang beim Reingewinn hinnehmen. Der hohe Goldpreis der vorangehenden Quartale hatte die Unternehmen veranlasst, vermehrt Gestein mit geringerem Goldgehalt zu fördern, was sich negativ auf die Produktionskosten und damit auch auf die Ergebnisse auswirkte. Die Gewinne wurden zudem durch einen weiteren Abbau der Hedge-Positionen beeinträchtigt. Dies trifft vor allem auf Barrick und Placer Dome zu, deren erzielter Goldpreis pro Unze mit 376 $ bzw. 386 $ deutlich unter dem Durchschnittspreis für das Quartal von 398 $/Unze lag. Unter den Folgen der Vorausverkäufe zu leiden hatte auch AngloGold Ashanti, deren Hedge-Positionen mit der Übernahme von Ashanti von 8,7 Mio. auf 12,5 Mio. Unzen kletterten.

Während es sich bei den Einbussen der nordamerikanischen Unternehmen um ein temporäres Problem handeln dürfte, hat sich die Lage der Produzenten Südafrikas weiter verdüstert, und eine Besserung scheint - auch nach der überraschenden Senkung der Leitzinsen - noch nicht in Sicht. Produzenten wie Harmony oder Durban Roodepoort Deep stehen inzwischen mit dem Rücken zur Wand und scheinen ihre Lage nur durch die Schliessung weiterer Schächte und einen weiteren Personalabbau verbessern zu können. Die Unternehmen hatten im letzten Quartal nicht nur mit dem tieferen Goldpreis zu kämpfen, sondern auch mit dem weiteren Erstarken des Rand. Der Goldpreis sank zeitweise auf 78 000 Rd./kg. Ohne eine Abschwächung der südafrikanischen Währung könnten nach Einschätzung von Analytikern in den kommenden Monaten bis zu 10 Prozent der etwa 200 000 Arbeitsplätze gefährdet sein.

Newmont mit starkem Einbruch
Der grösste Goldproduzent weltweit, Newmont, hat einen merklichen Rückgang des Reingewinns hinnehmen müssen. Gegenüber dem Vorjahr ging der Reingewinn um 59% von 90,8 Mio. auf 37,5 Mio. $ zurück. Für das Ergebnis werden die Schliessung von mehreren Minen, Abschreibungen in der Ovacik-Mine in der Türkei im Umfang von 16,3 Mio. $ und Investitionen von 31,5 Mio. $ in die Kinross Gold Corp. verantwortlich gemacht. Newmont zeigte sich bei der Präsentation des Ergebnisses trotzdem zuversichtlich und bekräftigte die zuvor publizierten Zahlen, wonach im laufenden Jahr 7 Mio. bis 7,2 Mio. Unzen Gold gefördert werden sollen. Es bestehe kein Anlass zur Sorge, betonte CEO Wayne Murdy. Analytiker gehen allerdings davon aus, dass sich die Förderung im Gesamtjahr im unteren Teil des angegebenen Zielbandes bewegen wird.

Einen Dämpfer musste auch der zweitgrösste Goldförderer, AngloGold Ashanti, hinnehmen. Während im Vorjahr noch ein Gewinn von 57 Mio. $ erzielt worden war, resultierte im zweiten Quartal dieses Jahres ein Reinverlust von 12 Mio. $. Die Goldförderung konnte leicht auf 1,49 Mio. Unzen gesteigert werden. Zu schaffen gemacht hat dem südafrikanischen Unternehmen die Übernahme von Ashanti. Die Produktion in den ghanesischen Minen fiel wegen der starken Unterkapitalisierung geringer aus als erwartet. AngloGold Ashanti hatte allerdings bereits 2003 angekündigt, dass die Ashanti-Minen erst nach vier bis sechs Quartalen ihre volle Produktionskapazität erreichen würden. Die Produktionskosten stiegen gegenüber dem Vorjahr von 223 $ auf 260 $/Unze. Neben höheren Lohnkosten wurde dafür der stärkere Rand verantwortlich gemacht. Für das Gesamtjahr rechnet das Unternehmen mit einer Produktion von 6,1 Mio. Unzen.

Hedge-Positionen belasten Barrick
Barrick hat im zweiten Quartal wie angekündigt seine Hedge-Positionen weiter von 14,7 Mio. auf 13,9 Mio. Unzen reduziert, konnte damit allerdings die Vorausverkäufe nicht so stark abbauen wie geplant. Verantwortlich dafür war der Rückgang der Goldförderung von 1,47 Mio. auf 1,28 Mio. Unzen. Rückläufig hatte sich die Produktion vor allem in Nevada und in den Pierina-Minen in Peru entwickelt. Barrick geht aber trotzdem davon aus, dass das Unternehmen 2004 insgesamt 4,9 Mio. Unzen Gold wird produzieren können. Der Reingewinn sank wegen der Hedge-Positionen und höherer Produktionskosten im Vorjahresvergleich um 42% auf 34 Mio. $. Der pro Unze erzielte Verkaufspreis lag mit 372 $ um 21 $ unter dem in dem Spot-Preis.

Auch der zweitgrösste südafrikanische Goldförderer, Gold Fields, war vom starken Rand betroffen. Während im Juni-Quartal 2003 noch ein Reingewinn von 98 Mio. $ erzielt worden war, musste das Unternehmen heuer einen Verlust von 25 Mio. $ verbuchen. Die negative Entwicklung hatte auch durch eine Erhöhung der Goldproduktion von 1,033 auf 1,042 Mio. Unzen und die leichte Senkung der Produktionskosten nicht verhindert werden können. Gold Fields schliesst die Schliessung von weiteren Minen nicht mehr aus. Der Leiter des Südafrika-Geschäftes, Mike Prinsloo, erachtet das Schicksal von etwa einem Viertel der Minen in Südafrika als «offen». Verbessern könnte sich die Lage von Gold Fields durch die Übernahme von Iamgold und die Kotierung der neuen gemeinsamen Gesellschaft Gold Fields International an der Börse von Toronto.

Der Reingewinn des weltweit fünftgrössten Goldproduzenten, Placer Dome, ging wegen der Schliessung der Misima-Mine auf Papua-Neuguinea um 43% von 58 Mio. auf 33 Mio. $ zurück. Die Goldproduktion blieb im Vergleich mit dem Vorjahr praktisch konstant. Die Produktionskosten erhöhten sich leicht von 223 auf 229 $/Unze. Die Hedge-Positionen konnten gegenüber dem ersten Vierteljahr um 310 000 Unzen auf 9,75 Mio. Unzen reduziert werden. Für das laufende Jahr rechnet Placer Dome weiterhin mit einer Gesamtproduktion von 3,6 Mio. Unzen. Im Rekordjahr 2003 hatte das kanadische Unternehmen 3,9 Mio. Unzen produziert.

Harmony noch tiefer im roten Bereich
Der südafrikanische Goldproduzent Harmony hat mit 85 Mio. $ im Juni-Quartal einen noch grösseren Verlust als in den ersten drei Monaten des laufenden Jahres (-12 Mio. $) hinnehmen müssen. Das Unternehmen hat stark darunter zu leiden, dass der grösste Teil des Goldes in Südafrika gefördert wird. Harmony kommt es teuer zu stehen, dass während der neunziger Jahre mehrere Grenzkosten-Minen von AngloGold übernommen wurden. Die in den vergangenen zwölf Monaten eingeleiteten Sparmassnahmen und die Stilllegung von Schächten haben bisher lediglich noch grössere Verluste verhindern können. Die Schliessung von weiteren Schächten erscheint unvermeidlich. Mit 392 $/Unze hat Harmony weiterhin die weitaus höchsten Produktionskosten unter den sechs grossen Goldförderern.






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Alle Börsen Schweiz Europa - Deutschland - Frankreich - Grossbritannien - Niederlande - Italien - Spanien - Belgien - Österreich - NASDAQ EU Nordamerika - NYSE - Nasdaq - Amex - Kanada Asien - Australien - Hong Kong

Kurs


Börsen/Contributors




Herausgegriffen

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Vor-, Zwischen- und Schlussberichte zum Börsengeschehen

Wankt die 2. Säule?

Swiss kämpft ums Überleben

Finanzmärkte:

Aktuelle Kurse der weltweit wichtigsten Börsenplätze

Geschäftsberichte:

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