Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Appendix

N.E. Thompson: Need your user name or readable email address to apply your membership check to your account.

Bill,
"Go for the Gold!". has an entirely more affluent feel to it this year for the Olympic champions….
Perhaps where they lead the rest will soon follow...
Semper Fi,
Dave
(three year subscriber)

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Greece waited 108 years to host another Olympic Games (news - web sites). Unfortunately it came just as a boom in world metal prices has sent the cost of winners' medals through the stadium roof.
At approximately $400,000 for the metal content of the 3,000 Athens medals alone, it may be just a drop in the Aegean Sea compared to an estimated $8.6 billion total Games cost.
But cost-conscious organizers can hardly have expected that the price of gold would increase approximately 45 percent since the summer Games in Sydney four years ago, or that silver would go up 35 percent and copper -- the key metal in bronze -- would cost 42 percent higher than in 2000. Considering that the medals struck for the Athens Games used 13 kilos (417
ounces) of gold and approximately one ton each of silver and bronze -- an alloy of 90 percent copper and 10 percent zinc -- that's a hefty increase in four years. By unofficial reckoning, it means the Athens Games needed over $166,000 worth of gold and $234,000 of silver for its medals.
The price of gold has risen dramatically since August 2000, when it was approximately $275 an ounce. It was hovering around $400 an ounce on Tuesday. Similarly, silver has risen from $4.90 an ounce when the Sydney Games (news - web sites) were held, to $6.65 currently. Copper, which is around $2,700 a ton, was selling for $1,900 four years ago.
Not counting labor, the metal content alone for the Athens medals comes to more than $400,000, and the gold medals are not even pure gold. Not that the International Olympic Committee (news - web sites) was considering solid gold medals -- the last medals of pure gold were awarded in Stockholm in 1912.
"That would be extremely heavy and extremely expensive," said Adrian Gostick of O.C. Tanner, a company that designs employee recognition awards and struck the medals for the 2002 Winter Olympics (news - web sites) in Salt Lake City.
Nowadays, gold medals are actually made of silver, with a coating of six grams (about one-fifth of an ounce) of gold -- about $83 worth at current prices.
The Salt Lake medals weighed 1-1/4 pounds (20 ounces) "They were the heaviest ever made," Gostick told Reuters. "When calculating the value, don't forget that each took 40 hours to make, plus the R&D (research and
development) time to create."
Precious metals analyst Jeff Stanley, of BMO Financial Group in New York, said gold and silver prices are closely related to the economy. Recent weakness of the dollar, plus higher oil prices have driven up the gold price, while silver tends to move in unison with gold, he said.
His colleague Victor Lazarovici, who follows base metals, said the copper price had virtually doubled over the past year as a result of strong demand in the West and demand growth for China's industrial expansion.
But world economics aside, the value of an Olympics medal is really incalculable. "It's not just a hunk of metal, it's something priceless for the winners," said Gostick.
Stanley agreed: "I think the winners would be quite happy to buy a medal if they had to."

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August 27 - Gold $402.90 down $4.20 – Silver $6.58 down 9 cents

"Hannibal Lecter" Goldman Sachs Bombs Gold, Shares Pay No Attention

Zitat

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclination, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence." --John Adams

It’s been some time since I used the Hannibal Lecter nomenclature to ascribe what Goldman Sachs continues to do to gold producers. They go to the producers asking to do business via sophisticated hedge programs in which they earn enormous fees, or they offer to finance mining projects and do just fine that way too. Then, they take the money and make sure the gold price does not rise along with the rest of The Gold Cartel. In other words Goldman Sachs is pulling a Hannibal Lecter and eating the clueless gold producers for lunch. Instead of reading the riot act to GS, the lightweight gold producer CEO’s keep going back for more punishment. If that isn’t bad enough, they can’t wait to socialize with them at industry functions and conferences. The whole charade is perverted.

Now we have the Sprott gold report out there revealing in great detail what the Hannibal Lecter crowd is doing to the gold industry and still nary a peep from the wimps. The only reason The Gold Cartel has pulled off their scam for this long is they know they can do whatever they want with the timid gold producer CEO’s. No other industry in the world would have put up with this manipulation crap for so long without raising a huge stink.

Am I disgusted once again? You bet! Gold rallied early when GOLDMAN SACHS began one of their typical bombing raids. They have been on the case for a week now and could care less who sees them doing it - day after day after day. Sick of it yet? I sure am sick of writing about it!

Another couple of days of this type of action and many of the black box funds will begin to pitch their longs for the umpteenth time. That will beget even more selling from lower levels as moving average points are penetrated to the downside and that could lead to an avalanche based on the recent huge build-up in open interest. How many times does this have to occur before the morons out there in the gold world wake up to what keeps happening?

The above was written with gold only down $2. Went out for a late breakfast and just returned. Now I see the arrogant Goldman Sachs already has some of the funds pitching their longs (the floor says it was funds who bought earlier in the week). No wonder the interest in the gold sector is so low. Fewer and fewer of the general public want to place their bets in a rigged casino. Who can blame them anymore? AND no wonder The Café memberships, hits and new trials continue to be atrocious. People can only take being robbed so often.

Once again we see the major damage done to the gold price on Comex and after the PM London Fix where the major physical market pricing is done for the day:

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/Midas0827A.gif]

The only short-term hope, and I mean hope at this point, is a good portion of the recent open interest build up is related to cash market pricing. If that is the case, the liquidation will not be as pronounced as in the past as these folks are not going to dump their positions because of price weakness. If this is not the case, then gold will most likely revert to its normal pattern and dipsy-doodle DOWN for a few weeks before it rallies back up. The only other way the decline can be stemmed is if the cash market surges around the $400 level and moderates/negates the spec tech selling which is now underway.

The Commitment of Traders Report did just what you would expect it to have done and further reveals how The Gold Cartel is ripping off the specs. The commercials reduced their gold long positions by 4362 contracts and increased their short positions by 28,836. This was another enormous swing and prior to Thursday’s 13,000+ open interest increase in which Goldman Sachs was observed to be a huge seller. No wonder Goldman Sachs reports such terrific trading profits. You could do the same too with the US Government backstopping your trades.

The dollar rose .45 to 89.80, while the euro sank .92 to 120.01. For the zillionth time The Gold Cartel capped gold on the rallies, sucking the funds in. Gradually they turned gold back and somewhat lower and then attacked fiercely on a day when the dollar surged, knowing this would attract other sellers to make their job easier.

Those are the negatives. Now for some positives:

*Gold ran away from $400, putting in a low of $400.70.

*The big drop hardly fazed the senior gold shares.

*DEC gold closed above its 200-day moving average of 404.80. The 50-day moving average is $401.90 and is headed to overtake the 200-day one. If it does, we will have our "golden cross" which the Comex floor will construe as very bullish.

*The euro bottomed last August 27 and rose through October 23 before topping out. Perhaps we will have a repeat.

*Mahendra, who nailed the recent stock market rally and the oil retreat, put out the following:

I would like to say that this is a unbelievable buying opportunity has come in metals because next week can be historic week for metals and metal stocks.
You all know that I never write some to convince, I am just predicting what I see.
Wait for my newsletter on Sunday.
Currently Gold/Silver trading at $402.50 and $6.58.
Thanks & God Bless
Mahnedra
http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/

The gold open interest fell 1050 contracts to 271,927.

Silver fell in sympathy with gold. Its open interest dropped 2724 contracts to 100,287.

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The John Brimelow Report

Buyer identity theory; Go, Refco!

Friday, August 27, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.48, PM $6.33, with world gold at $406.20 and $406.70. High; ample for legal imports. India is now entering the main buying season of the year, and looks like importing a lot of gold.

TOCOM is not excited. Volume slipped again, by 19%, to equal only 13,822 Comex and the active contract closed down 1 yen, although open interest did rise the equivalent of 949 Comex lots to the equivalent of 92,845 Comex, and world gold had risen $1.25 above the NY close at the end. Gold is overshadowed by platinum in Japan at present: Platinum futures rose to a ten-day high on a dollar volume of trading almost double gold. (NY yesterday traded 52,655 contracts; open interest slipped 1,050 lots to 271,927.)

As noted yesterday, Comex gold opened strongly on Thursday in what looked like a serious effort, started around 7am NY time, to give gold some momentum. It took the usual relentless selling an hour or so to bring the situation under control. ScotiaMocatta reported:

"Gold started the day well bid…It looked as if gold would break higher as buying was seen from both New York dealers and over seas sources. However… dealer selling pressure weighed on the market. Resting stop loss orders were triggered off …forcing gold to the session low of 404.40/404.90. The price then recovered over the afternoon as physical buyers returned to the market, finally finishing 406.80/407.30."

Mitsui-Sydney notes that

"good size volume was seen near the highs"

so that in the end, in Standard London’s word’s

"investment bank selling easily brought gold back down to lower levels."

No effort on the upside today has not saved gold from further pounding: an estimated volume of 42,000 by 1pm (with virtually no switches) suggests similar overall trade to yesterday and a busy last Friday for a very busy August.

The identity of the buyers is starting to attract some comment. Reuters quotes a "European trader" saying:

"There has been good buying by a couple of banks recently on the dips between $405 and $407" and in their morning NY comment state:

"A big commercial bank worked a large buy order all week, preventing gold from falling too far, even as inflation hedges were unwound…"

The noted gold bear, who alone amongst the commentators has the intellectual energy/integrity to try to explain late August’s immense buying (he calculates a 25% increase in open interest since August 12) insinuates that front- running a major producer buy back is involved. It is hard to accept that one could be of such size to account for a 200 tonne swing in outstanding Comex contracts. Physical premiums suggest that some large scale investment portfolio acquisitions are also at work.

No one wants to explain who has been the massive seller. No doubt that is because it can only have been a Central Bank or Central Bank proxy.

Heroic Refco Research went long Dec Gold this afternoon at $405. Arguing for them is the presence of the mass Middle Eastern/Indian offtake, which appears in no way to have been crowded out. It could easily step in when the large wholesale buyer goes away. Maybe the seller will desist after the Republican Convention next week.

JB

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW gained 22 to 10,195 and the DOG rose 9 to 1862 in very quiet trading. Crude recovered 8 cents to $43.18 per barrel.

Some US economic news:

08:30 Q2 GDP revised to 2.8% vs. consensus 2.7%; Price Deflator reported 3.2% vs. consensus 3.2%
Prior readings were 3% and 3.2%, respectively.
* * * * *

09:46 Univ. of Michigan August final reading 95.9 vs. consensus 94
Prior reading was 94.
* * * * *

Some notes from Jessie:

Why the US GDP came in at 2.8%:

They adjusted Personal Spending up 60 percent (from 1% to 1.6%). Since this is 70 of our GDP these days, its no wonder it came in at 2.8 rather than the 2 percent one would have suspected because of our enormous trade deficit.
Does this seem warranted or sustainable based on the more recent data from the retail sector including WalMart? You decide……

GDP growth 0, CPI inflation 5.7%, Unemployment 12.5%

Sound like an uncomfortable scenario? We're there.

"As a result of the systemic manipulations, if the GDP methodology of 1980 were applied to today's data, the second quarter's annualized inflation-adjusted GDP growth of 3.0% would be roughly three percent lower (effectively netting to zero percent or below). In like manner, current annual CPI inflation is understated by about 2.7% against the pre-Clinton CPI methodology (would be about 5.7%), and the unemployment rate is understated by about seven percent against its original design and what many people would consider to be actual unemployment (would be about 12.5%). "

http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/s/article/id=264

-END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $11 Billion in temps today August 27th 2004, an action that left the repo pool unchanged but kept it very high at $54.515 Billion. Intra-day the pool tops $65Billion until closing time. This amount can do damage in the futures area of any of the Fed's "monetary policy" targets.

Those who believe that the Fed doesn't dabble in the bond futures need to ask why the term "policy puts" was coined by Professor PA Tinsley, a Fed consultant. One can ALWAYS count on geeks to spill the beans.

Yesterday I opined that the bulk of repos were probably going to the oil derivatives market and I'm sticking to that wild guess. As mentioned here in the past, the BIS reports a huge $458 Billion stash of derivatives in their "other" derivatives category that contains oil and with the financial terror being wielded in the petroleum markets from plus $40/bbl oil it is easy, no matter how blind one might be, to pin the repo tail on the oil donkey.

Omnipotent Derivatives?

In the strategic commodities markets we can get a clear view of the derivatives-only power, or lack thereof by going back to early December 2002 and following the gold price through Feb 6th. That was the period in which the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) was powerless and the Fed had no way to access its gold selling mechanism. The SECTREAS was gonzo and the President couldn't do a thing about pulling the ESF's gold market rigging levers. The result was a somewhat choppy but linear rise in the gold price. The multi-phasic regression R^2 value for that period was .958, pretty much a straight line up to plus 18% for the PM Fix and a DIVG = 362. BTW historically the DIVG has been as high as 600 back in 1981, but that was when there still remained gold for the Fed to sell to bring it back down.

The period from Dec 5, 2002 until Feb 6, 2003 is therefore a clear measure of the derivatives-only suppression power used by the cartel in the gold market...an 18% PM Fix rise every 60 days. Looking into the future, this will be the price rise rate as the last gold bar is inevitably sold from the cartel OR they decide to stop their financial madness and exit today's version of the London Gold Pool.

Geopolitics and oil

As many know, I follow the Georgian geopolitical situation and things there are heating up a bit these days with threats of war and counter moves by Russia. Elsewhere in Russia outsiders have been hammered by asset confiscations in the case of Moscow Canadian hotel operators, silver mine property forfeitures by PAAS and of course the biggest constraining move of them all, YUKOS and their once great celebrity, US leaning CEO, Mikhail
Khodorkovsky:

Houston, we have a Yukos problem

By Pepe Escobar
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Cen...6Ag03.html

BRUSSELS - The crucial consequence of Moscow's campaign to nail Yukos, the country's leading oil producer, is the end of any possible energy alliance between Russia and the US, according to European Union diplomats and officials.

Yukos' former golden boy, chief executive Mikhail Khodorkovsky, languishing in jail since October 2003, was President George W Bush's and Vice President Dick Cheney's man. But way beyond his personal fate, it is the symbol of the fall of Yukos - no hope of cheap Russian oil for America and extra profits for ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco and ConocoPhillips - that is really rattlingmarkets and driving oil prices higher. END

IF one has an investment in Russia, you had better be personally related to someone in the Putin family.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
And here is another bombshell dropped on Royal Dutch Shell:
Shell hit by $1.5bn Nigeria spill claim

Senate action on pollution adds to damage from reserves scandal

Terry Macalister Thursday August 26, 2004 The Guardian
http: /www.guardian.co.uk/busine...22,00.html

Shell has been hit by a $1.5bn (£840m) pollution claim from the Nigerian parliament 24 hours after being fined in Britain and the United States by financial regulators for "unprecedented misconduct". The latest bombshell was delivered by the Nigerian senate after it reviewed a compensation demand from the Ijaw tribe in the oil-rich Niger Delta.

Shell has been under fire in Nigeria for many years over its environmental record, which has been made worse by sabotage in the politically turbulent south of the country.

The company admits that in 2002 alone there were 262 oil spill incidents in Nigeria, involving 2,700 tonnes of crude. In the same year it identified 548 sites, including pipelines, that needed "remedial" action to avoid contamination.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The Fed has stopped its Summer down force application on gold for the moment holding here just above $405. Time will tell whether they release it upward and at what rate.
Mike

Links to the Sprott gold report coverage:

http://www.investors.com/break…?journalid=22803517&brk=1

http://business-times.asia1.co…ory/0,4567,126643,00.html

From Peter George in South Africa:

Cape Town 27/8/2004

Dear Bill

Here is the article I promised. It was lead story yesterday on the front page of one of our daily newspapers called ‘This Day’. The paper is owned by a Nigerian businessman who is not beholden to the usual interest groups, whereas the Argus Group is owned by the Irish CEO of Heinz, related to Kerry’s wife. As a result of the above article, Radio 702 phoned to interview me. Someone told them: "Peter George knows more than anyone else in SA about the entire gold conspiracy." They did not tell me who it was.

They are sending me a CD transcript of the interview. When it arrives I shall have a copy made and will post it to you. If it is possible to e-mail it I will.

Apart from the article below, I also attach a copy of my latest newsletter, EM63, entitled: "GREENSPAN’S DUCKS TAKE FLIGHT".

I trust you enjoy it.

Well done on the job you are doing. We are all very proud of you and extremely grateful for your courage and perseverance.

Bets wishes,
Peter George

‘Lunatic’ gold conspiracy theorists get support

- by Allan Seccombe, August 26, 2004

Johannesburg – Gold watchers labeled "lunatic conspiracy theorists" for their views that the gold price is in the grips of murky and Machiavellian dealings have received the backing of a well-known Canadian fund manager.

Sprott Asset Management yesterday released a 71 page report detailing how and why the gold price has been kept artificially low. The report outlines the mind boggling intricacies of how central banks, investment banks, producers and speculators fund hedge move and trade gold.

The reports authors, John Embry and Andrew Hepburn, argued that the gold price has often moved counter to the factors, that should make it rise. They laid the blame squarely on central banks, investment banks and on hedge funds.

"We certainly do not look upon ourselves as crusaders, but the more we investigated the gold market the more readily apparent it became that the gold appeared, in the politest of terms, to be managed," said John Embry, Sprott’s chief investment strategist.

"We avoid the word ‘conspiracy’ and prefer to instead believe that at least initially powerful groups (central banks, bullion banks, hedge funds) were operating in their own self interests and not necessarily in concert with one another," he said.

The researchers say they drew heavily on the work done by members of Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), which has long drawn withering scorn from segments of the gold industry.

The report reckons central banks intervened in the gold market in the late 1990s to prevent a meltdown among bullion banks as the gold price ran up, catching them offside. It said the Bank of England’s well publicized sale announcement of 415 tonners of gold in early 1999 was also seen as a downward manipulation of the gold price that was in the throes of a rise.

The report citied GATA researcher Frank Veneroso’s argument that loans of gold by central banks to investment banks, providing derivative plays for producers and speculators, are two to four times larger than thought.

"The parties who are really being disadvantaged are those whose livelihoods depend on gold mining, which is now a marginal business at best," Embry said.

The central banks were the primary beneficiaries of the price manipulation, they said.

Allan Seccombe
Daily Financial Section of Thisday
August 26, 2004

From a veteran GATA supporter:

The housing bubble is alive and well(?) - at least for now. I was planning to give you a lumber/gold analysis to show more evidence of gold rigging but time has not allowed. On the other hand it is as if we need more corroboration of a crooked game being played daily by evil people. Mathew Ingram's attempt to smear GATA was chock full of the usual jingoism. Whenever I see the words "lunatic fringe" and other cliches I always remember Jesus Christ was lunatic fringe to the Romans and Washington, Jefferson, and Adams were lunatic fringe to the British. The media can seem powerful and almighty in their effort to ignore the truth. When the manipulation of gold and other currencies end badly they will slink away and the Ingrams will be unavailable. I doubt if there ever was a British newspaper that heralded "American Colonists Correct, England Was Oppressive". So be it. I will take victory without accolade if we win. And I will go to my grave with one of the most important fights of my life as an achievement. GATA will prevail. Manipulation will fail. Ingram needs to tape that to his PC and remember we said so.
James McShirley

The gold shares ignored the bullion drubbing to move up nicely in the last two hours of trading. Perhaps it portends better prices for gold and silver next week. Love to see The Gold Cartel get seriously stuffed for a change. The XAU gained 1.07 to 94.37 and the HUI rose 2.14 to 205.32. Both closed on their highs.

The HUI chart remains a good one as staunch support at the pivotal 200 area kicked in this afternoon:

HUI

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

The gold share action was nice to see and provided a welcome lift going into the weekend after a watching a miserable day on the Comex.

Have a great weekend all and remember:

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

kalle14

Du schreibst:

Zitat

In seinem letzten Bericht,weisst Ted Butler darauf hin, das man zur Zeit sehr vorsichtig sein sollte mit Investitionen in Commedies,er rechnet mit einem Sell Off in diesem Bereich.

Butler erwähnt zwar kurzfristige Preisrisiken durch Fonds Verkäufe, doch langristig ist Butler so überzeugt von steigenden Preisen wie eh.

In seinem letzten mir bekannten Beitrag schreibt er wie ich meine sehr zutreffend:

Zitat

The key to long-term investment success is buying and holding undervalued assets. I try to use the COTs to identify extremely low risk points in the market, when the risk is a few dimes to the downside. While there are many, many dollars of upside to silver, the COTs suggest a little more than a few dimes to the downside currently.

Bob Chapman ist für Gold und Silber so extrem bullisch wie ich ihn nur selten erlebt habe. Ich selbst bin es übrigen auch!

Chapman geht von weiter +++steigenden+++ Gold und Silber Preisen aus! Es geht davon aus, dass Gold bereits 2005 840.- Dollar überschreiten wird!

Beim Silber geht er von 12.- Dollar pro Unze aus!

Zitat

"Once gold passes $433 an ounce, there will be no stopping until $512 is achieved. That is only the beginning. Next year $840 will be breached and $1,680 will be the next target. Silver is poised to go to $7.20 then $8.50 and then $10 to $12.00 an ounce."

Du hast vermutlich übersehen, dass seine Aussage bezüglich der Gefahr eines Crashes des US Dollars, des DOW, und der Comodities ca. ab März bis Juni nächstes Jahr, nicht Gold und Silber meint.

Gold und Silber sind für Chapman keine Commodity sondern stellen +++ Echtes Geld +++ dar.

Chapman sieht nächstes Jahr einen Zusammenbruch der US Märkte mit allen negativen Auswirkungen auf die Weltmärkte, und warnt ab März/Juni 05 zur Vorsicht bei Investements in Commoditys! (Er meint damit nicht Edelmetalle (Echtes Geld) wie Gold und Silber!)

Falls Imoen wieder einmal mehr ,wie so oft bereits, durch Postings Gold Kartell freundlicher Veröffentlichungen, vor Risiken bei Gold und Silber Investments gewarnt hat, wie Du in Deinem letzten Posting erwähntest, sollte Dich das nicht allzusehr beunruhigen, das macht Imoen sehr häufig. Genauer gesagt, er warnt bereits seit Gold noch unter 300.- Dollar pro Unze gehandelt wurde. Damals noch unter altem User Namen.

Gold und Silber (vor allem physisch!) stellen DAS Investment unserer Zeit dar!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

A Privatised Money Supply

Modern Banking and the Fractional Reserve System

Do you know where the bank gets the $160,000 for your mortgage?

It's very simple.

Someone walks over to a computer and types 160,000 beside your name.

With only $27.93 of cash reserves for every $10,000 of assets (as of June 1999) the bank has just created the remaining $159,553 of that interest-earning money out of thin air.

When, after 25 years of hard work, you pay off your mortgage, the $159,553 vanishes back into thin air.

Not so the interest however.

It vanishes into the banker's pocket.

weiter......

http://www.basicincome.com/basic_banks.htm