Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

  • Spieler0815


    Wieviel war es denn insgesammt?


    Nun wenn Du jetzt so willst, besitzt Du nun sehr wahrscheinlich Deine ganz eigenen, substantiellen Gründe, um mit solchen Aussagen zu Chapman, Ted Butler, GATA, , etc. wütend zur Lunte zu schreiten. Wir sind allesammt Spinner, die mit ihren Sprüchen, und mit Ihrem inzüchtigen Gesülze, und überbordenden Phantasien sich gegenseitig die Gold, und Silber Preise in schwindelerregende Höhen hochreden wollen.


    Du scheinst gerade den Teufel mit dem Belzebub auszutreiben zu wollen.


    Etwas gutes haben Deine letzten drei sehr emotionalen Beiträge aber sicherlich trotzdem aufgezeigt, man sollte in erster Linie physisches Gold, und Silber kaufen, und nicht überproportional Aktien von Südafrikanischen Minen erwerben, oder noch viel risikoreicher, in Derivative wie Turbo Calls, mit und ohne weiss was ich Zertifikate der Gold Bullion Banken investieren.


    Jeder Anleger, ob er sein Fiat Geld aufs Spaarbuch legt, in Aktien deponiert, mit Derivativen seinen Adrenalin Spiegel befriedigt, oder lieber in Edelmetalle investiert, sollte seine Entscheidung erst nach reiflicher Ueberlegung, Abschätzung der Risiken, und entsprechend seiner eigenen finanziellen Mittel, selbst treffen. Sich nur auf Aussagen von Anlegeberater, Tipgebern, Börsen Analysten, oder überzeugten Befürwortern von Gold, und Silber Anlegern, wie Sinclair, Butler, Chapman, und vielen mehr zu verlassen, deren Ansichten, und Veröffentlichungen hier in diesem Thread oft gepostet werden, oder sich von meinerneigenen persönlichen Gold positiven Aussagen abhängig zu machen, genügt da eben bei weitem nicht.


    Warum die Gold und Silber Preise nicht schon beachtlich höherstehen als heute, darüber streiten sich neben uns hier auch die Analysten. Die einen sprechen von einem angemessenen Preis von 450 bis 500 Dollar, andern von 840.-, 1600.-, 2500.-, oder noch mehr Dollar pro Unze.
    Wieder andere sehen die Goldpreise noch auf 200.- Dollar zurückfallen.


    Der angesehene, und weltweit bekannte Finanzier John Hathaway, © Tocqueville Asset Management L.P., sprach vor gut zweieinhalb Jahren bereits, in einem Interview mit dem Forbes Magazin, zum damaligen aktuellen Goldgeschehen, und über eine zu erwartende zukünftige Wirtschaftsentwicklung, in dem er von einem möglichen Goldpreis von 2500.- Dollar, oder noch höher, innerhalb der nächsten 5 bis 10 Jahren sprach.


    Hathaway verfasste auch ein mehr als bemerkenswertes Papier, das sich wie sich heute herausgestellt hat, ein geradezu top zutreffende Arbeit zur Gold Preisentwicklung darstellt.


    Der Titel:


    "The Investment Case For Gold" !


    Habe dieses Papier an dieses Posting angehängt.


    Eines ist eine Tatsache: An Gold positiven fundamentalen Gründen liegt es bestimmt nicht. An den Empfängern Deiner heutigen Schwerthiebe sicherlich auch nicht, dass die Gold-, und Silberpreise in Euro gerechnet noch sehr wenig gestiegen sind.


    Dass die SA Minen trotz gestiegener Goldpreise immer weniger verdienen, weil die Minen zwar 45% mehr Dollars pro Unze Gold erhalten, jedoch wenn sie diese Dollar Einnahmen in ihre Heimatwährung Rand wechseln, mit der sie dann den Haupteil ihrer Produktionskosten und Löhne bezahlen müssen, erhalten gerade mal nur noch etwa die Hälfte Rand, von dem was sie früher für den Dollar bekommen haben. Dieser Umstand treibt die SA Minen in die Kriese, und liess unter anderem auch die Preise der Durban stark einbrechen.


    Daran ist sicher nicht GATA, oder die positiven Aussagen von Gold Bugs schuld. Die vergangene Währungsaufwertung des SA Rand gegenüber dem US Dollar, hauptsächlich auf Grund der Hochzinspolitik der schwarzen SA Regierung, war nicht in diesem Ausmass vorherzusehen, bei gleichzeitig nur wenig steigenden Goldpreisen, verursacht durch massive Gold Papierverkäufe "gemanagten" Goldpreis Manipulationen der Bullion-, und einiger Zentralbanken.


    Meinem eigenen Gold und Silber Aktien Depot gings auch schon zweimal besser als heute, doch meiner Einschätzung zur Lage der Wirtschaft, meiner Gold positiven Überzeugung, mit der m.A.n. höchst wahrscheinlichen weiteren Aufwärtsentwicklung der Edelmetallpreise haben die vergangenen Monate keinen Schaden zufügen können. Im Gegenteil.


    Schlaf doch noch mal drüber!


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru

  • Es ist nur ein Gefühl - aber irgendwie glaube! ich seit ein paar Tagen, dass die Hedgefonds langsam aus Öl rausgehen und sich stattdessen mehr für Gold und (vor allem?) Silber begeistern. Vor allem koppelt sich Gold + Silber mehr und mehr vom Dollar ab, und steigt auch in Zeiten, wenn Öl fällt.


    Öl hat ja bekanntlich mehr als 50% in wenigen Monaten hingelegt, was so kaum einer erwartet hat. Einen Großteil dieser Entwicklung wird den Hedgefonds zugeschrieben.

  • Spieler0815,


    also ich verstehe nicht, dass eine Prognose von 840 Dollar bei Gold und 12 Dollar bei Silber für das Jahr 2005 (!!) exterm bullish sein soll. In meinen Augen ist dies eher vorsichtig.


    Wenn man sich das Umfeld mal genauer anschaut und zwischen den Zeilen liest, gibt es in den letzten Wochen ein paar Meldungen, die einen höchst hellhörig machen sollten:


    • Aus dem arabischen und asiatischen Raum (inkl. Indien) wird eine Steigerung der (nichtindustriellen) Goldnachfrage von über 25/30 % zum Vorjahr gemeldet.
    • In den letzten Woche gab es das Gerücht, dass ein größerer Investor (Araber ??) über die UBS im größeren Maße Gold kauft.
    • Die Gold-/Silberlagerbestände nehmen langsam, aber sicher ab.
    • Bei Gold gibt es technische Indikatoren, die auf einen Ausbruch der Kurse hinweisen.
    • Die Unsicherheit der Märkte/Aktienkurse wird immer mehr thematisiert. Ich gehe davon aus, dass Hedgefonds bzw. größere Fonds zur Risikoabsicherung nun auch im größeren Maße in Gold/Silber zur Risikoabsicherung investieren.
    • Die wirtschaftlichen Zahlen aus den USA sind bisher ernüchternd. Im Zusammenhang mit den steigenden Zinsen sind hier immer mehr warnende Stimmen zu vernehmen. Der Sprott-Report war das i-Tüpfelchen, um die Finanzbranche bzgl. der Goldkursentwicklung zu sensibilisieren.

    Man muß sich nur mal heute anschauen, was mit dem Silberkurs geschah (derzeit +2,2 %). Wenn die Nachfrage noch etwas ansteigt, haben wir demnächst ein sehr, sehr interessantes, kurssteigerndes Szenario.


    Gruß


    Silbertaler

  • Das hört sich net so gut an:




    GoldSeiten.de
    Infos zu Gold & Silber, sowie deren Minengesellschaften.




    Tageskommentar 30.08.04
    Datum 30.08.2004 10:18 | Thema: Marktberichte



    Die Goldnotierung gegen US$ ging am Freitag etwas schwächer aus dem Handel. Zum Wochenausklang verlor das gelbe Metall vier US$ pro Feinunze oder umgerechnet knapp ein Prozent. Der Grund hierfür war die schwache Tendenz des Euro zum Dollar. Mittlerweile wurde sogar die Marke von 1,20 zeitweise unterschritten. Für den deutschen Anleger hat sich der Goldpreis gegen Euro nur unwesentlich bewegt. Die Entwicklung der beiden Basisgrößen hat sich wie oben beschrieben nahezu eliminiert. Immer mehr Privatkunden trennen sich auf dem derzeitigen Preisniveau von Ihren physischen Goldbeständen. So wurden uns am Freitag vor allem Goldbarren 1000 Gramm sowie Goldmünzen 1 Unze Maple Leaf und American Eagle angeboten. Das Verhältnis von Kundenkäufen zu Kundenverkäufen hält sich, was das Handelsvolumen angeht, in etwa die Waage, nachdem in den Vorwochen die Kauforders unserer Kunden eindeutig überwogen hatten.
    Die Zahl der offenen Goldkontrakte an der New Yorker Futuresbörse hat sich in der Woche zum 24.August weiter erhöht. Die Longpositionen der spekulativ orientierten Fonds nehmen dabei wie im April dieses Jahres Schwindel erregende Ausmaße an. Insgesamt sitzen die Fonds derzeit auf 129.085 Kontrakten, was einem Äquivalent von über 400 Tonnen Gold entspricht. Nicht auszudenken was passiert, sollten die Computermodelle einmal auf „Verkaufen“ umschwenken. Darüber hinaus beträgt das Verhältnis von Longpositionen zu Shortpositionen bei den Fonds heute 7:1 – ein wahrlich bedenklicher Wert. Daher achten wir auf die wichtige Unterstützungszone zwischen 401 US$ und 404 US$ pro Feinunze. Sollte dieses Niveau unterschritten werden, etablieren wir kleinere Shortpositionen.
    Das Silber pendelt derweil richtungslos um das Niveau von 6,60 US$ pro Feinunze. Die physische Nachfrage beschränkt sich nach wie vor auf Silberbarren 1000 Gramm und 5000 Gramm. Unseren Stoppkurs für die bestehende Position legen wir unverändert bei 6,42 US$.


    Wir wünschen Ihnen einen positiven Wochenstart


    © Robert Hartmann, Mirko Schmidt
    pro aurum GmbH & Co. KG, Grillparzerstraße 46, 81675 München

  • Die gute Nachricht des Tages für Gold Bugs!


    Sons of Gwalia ein ober, ober Gold Hedger, soll dieser Reuters Meldung zufolge ihrer Verpflichtung, vorwärtsverkauftes Gold zu liefern nicht mehr nachkommen können, und soll wegen ihrer Gold Hedgepolitik vor dem Konkurs stehen.


    Nun, Gwalia hat anscheinend wie einige andere Gold Hedger auch, Gold "naked short "verkauft, ohne es zu besitzen. Um welche Mengen es sich dabei genau handelt, ob dieser Liefer Ausfall evtl. einer Kettenreaktion gleich, zu weiteren Liefervertragsbrüchen führen könnte, darüber lässt Reuters in der untenstehenden Meldung leider nichts verlauten. Genauso wie Reuters vergisst zu erwähnen um wen es sich den nun beim "Gelackmeierten", vermeintlichen Empfänger dieses nicht lieferbaren Goldes handelt.


    Etwas zu verkaufen das man gar noch nicht besitzt, ist ja eigentlich nichts weltbewegendes mehr in unserer Zeit von Fiat Money und fraktional Banking.


    Das machen doch auch diejenigen Banken ständig vor, die ihren nichtsahnenden, vermeintlich Gold oder Silber kaufenden Kunden nichts anderes als ein Stück Papier, mit einem Lieferversprechen für Gold resp. Silber aushändigen, obwohl die Banken , von prozentual unbedeutenden physischen Edelmetall Beständen einmal abgesehen, in wirklichkeit (physisch) dieses von der Bank verkaufte Silber gar nicht besitzt. Die Bank lässt den Kunden "sein Silber" auf einem sogenannten Edelmetall Konto deponieren, und kassiert für eine nötige Computereinbuchung, und den Ausdruck einer Kauf Quittung für diese nur fiktiv vorhandenen Edelmetalle auch noch happig Depot Gebühren.


    Alleine in der Schweiz zum Beispiel sollen angeblich Unmengen von vermeintlich physisch gekauftem Silber von Seiten ihrer Bank Kunden auf solchen MWST freien Konten eingetragen sein. Von einer angeblichen Menge von ca. 1000000000 Unzen Silber ! (1 Milliarde Unzen) die zum Teil schon seit ende der 70er Jahre eingebucht sind ist die Rede. Das entspräche, falls diese Mengenangabe zutreffen solte, etwa eineinhalb Weltjahresproduktionen an Silber die (physisch) naked short verkauft wurden. Auch wenn anzunehmen ist, dass die Bank mit ihrem "guten Ruf" für diese fiktiven physischen Silber Guthaben bürgt, ist es meiner Ansicht nach ganz einfach nur ein Betrug an ihren zumeist nichts ahnenden Kunden. Nicht auszudenken was passieren würde, falls sich die vermeintlichen Silber-, oder Goldbesitzer "ihr Silber", oder "ihr Gold" eines Tages auf Grund irgendwelcher von den Banken heute nicht voraussehbarernwirtschaftlichen Vorkommnissen, plötzlich alle aushändigen lassen möchten!


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru


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    http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/040830/markets_precious_comex_2.html


    Reuters


    COMEX gold propped by convention, Gwalia troubles


    Monday August 30, 10:30 am ET



    NEW YORK, Aug 30 (Reuters) - COMEX gold rose Monday morning, supported by a softer dollar and traders' bias toward safe havens as the Republican national convention opened in a New York City smothered in extra security.

    Dealers said gold's tone was helped by news Monday that Australian mining company Sons of Gwalia Ltd (Australia:SGW.AX - News) was facing bankruptcy because its hedging policy had backfired. It moved into voluntary financial administration after finding that its mines might not have enough gold to meet contracted forward sales.


    Zitat

    "That means that people that have the hedges will need to buy gold and present Gwalia with the bill," said the manager of a precious metals trading firm. "People don't want to be on the short side because of that and want to get this week out of the way because of the convention."


    Exchange trading was illiquid because a summer bank holiday in London, while many traders stayed away from New York, fearing a nightmarish commute due to security precautions taken to prevent extremists from disrupting the convention.


    December gold (GCZ4) at 9:29 a.m. EDT (1329 GMT) was up $3.10 at $408.50 an ounce, trading from $405.20 to $409.00.


    The euro rose against the greenback in early trade, smoothing gold buying from Europe.


    "It's kind of thin here. A little bit of local activity and a little bit of commission house activity," a floor broker said.


    Gold has traded in a $417 to $403 range for the last 10 days, enjoying an enhanced risk premium as investors fretted about record oil prices, a weak dollar, fighting in Iraq and the possibility of attacks on the United States before the November presidential election.


    Spot gold (XAU=) was quoted at $406.75/7.60, up from Friday's close at $402.85/3. There were no precious metals fixes Monday, because UK markets were closed in observance of a bank holiday.


    December silver (SIU4) became active Monday, one day before September delivery's first notice day. December was up 9.3 cents at $6.72 an ounce, trading from $6.625 to $6.75. Spot (XAG=) was quoted at $6.67/70, up from $6.55/58.


    NYMEX October platinum (PLV4) was up $4 at $868.50 an ounce.


    September palladium (PAU4) was up $2 at $215.00 an ounce

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://im.morningstar.com/im/NavBar/MstarLogo2.gif]


    http://news.morningstar.com/ne…WJONESDJONLINE000098.html


    Sons Of Gwalia: Sale Of Gold Operations Likely


    08-29-04 09:44 PM EST

    MELBOURNE -(Dow Jones)- Financially distressed Australian gold and tantalum producer Sons of Gwalia Ltd. (SGW.AU) said Monday its gold business may be sold and its minerals division recapitalized as part of a restructure of the company.


    Creditors will decide the future of the company at meetings to be held within a month, it said in a statement after earlier Monday announcing a voluntary administrator had been appointed to run the company.


    The company's administrator will work with directors to develop a restructure plan focused on the sale of the gold business and the recapitalization of the minerals business, the company said in a statement.


    Sons of Gwalia was placed in administration after a review of operations identified a serious deterioration in the status of its gold reserves and creditors refused to accept delayed payment while the company reorganized its operations.


    -By Stephen Wright, Dow Jones Newswires;


    61-2-8235-2950; stephen.wright@dowjones.com


    -Edited by Graham Morgan



    Dow Jones Newswires
    08-29-04 2144ET
    Copyright (C) 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

  • Sons of Gwalia


    Nun wissen wir schon etwas mehr!


    !!!!! Short Gold mit bis zu 1 Million Unzen !!!!!!


    !!!! 700 Millionen Dollar Verbindlichkeiten !!!!




    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.theadvertiser.news.com.au/images/masthead.gif]


    http://www.theadvertiser.news.…,10621143%255E462,00.html


    TOP STORIES


    31 August 2004


    Gwalia gold turns to dust


    By Robin Bromby and David King


    31aug04


    MISMANAGED hedging contracts have brought another iconic Australian company to its knees, with West Australian gold miner Sons of Gwalia yesterday calling in administrators as its liabilities passed $700 million.


    Sons of Gwalia joined a growing list of primary industry companies burned by poorly managed hedging, including zinc group Pasminco, New Zealand dairy operator Bonlac and fellow gold miner Newcrest.


    And it has angered investors, who said they were given no indication the company's position was terminal.


    Shareholders would be left with nothing and US bondholders owed about $220 million would probably have to accept just cents in the dollar, one analyst said.


    An internal review, started in March and concluded yesterday, revealed that SOG would not be able to produce enough gold to meet its hedge positions.


    The review found reserves at the Marvel Loch mine, bought in 1995, could not be economically mined, leaving SOG short by up to a million ounces of gold over the next five years.


    Zitat

    "Our future production profiles had depended quite heavily on Marvel Loch being able to produce somewhere between 150,000oz and 200,000oz a year for the next five years," managing director John Leevers said.


    "I had to go to the board and say we had to take those ounces out of the production model. That crystallised a significant position."


    Chairman Neil Hamilton told the market yesterday that SOG could not get all its creditors to agree to a standstill on debt payments.


    The news was met with anger and disbelief from brokers and their clients who said the company gave no warning things were so bad.


    Mr Leevers - who joined SOG in January - said administrators Andrew Love, Garry Trevor and Darren Weaver of Ferrier Hodgson would try to sell the gold business and refinance the tantalum operations.


    "The administrators have advised me they intend to run the business as usual. We have no immediate plans to close any operations," he said.


    Mr Leevers said the company had received expressions of interest in its gold mines from a South African mining company about three months ago.


    There are about 3000 trade creditors who are owed, at any given time, about $60 million.


    Mr Leevers said the extent of the group's financial problems shocked senior management.


    "It's been a significant surprise for all of us. It's disappointing it's got to this stage," he said.


    "We all joined the organisation with the expectation that we were going to be able to rebuild it. I'd just like to say it's certainly a different picture to what I envisaged.


    Zitat

    "I had no reason to believe that the reserve and resources that were stated in the books weren't completely valid. It was only when we applied our own rigorous assessment of the resources that we'd purchased that the current position was revealed."


    The collapse of SOG comes just four months after its founders, brothers Peter and Chris Lalor, stood down and turned the management over to Mr Leevers.


    Peter was in North America yesterday while Chris was in Europe.


    Analysts had known there were problems at the company, but not that they were terminal. One analyst who heard the news by telephone was said to "have just about fallen off his seat".


    The larger shareholders include US financial giant Franklin Templeton, Canadian miner Teck Cominco, Schroeder Investment and tantalum customer Cabot Corp of the US.

  • UPDATE: Sons Of Gwalia In Administration On Hedging Debt

    By Stephen Bell
    OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


    PERTH (Dow Jones)--Sons of Gwalia Ltd. (SGW.AU), Australia's second-biggest gold producer, has fallen into administration over a A$348 million hedge book liability.


    The Perth-based company said Monday that it appointed voluntary administrators over the weekend after identifying a "serious deterioration" in the status of its gold reserves.


    In Australia, going into administration gives an insolvent or near-insolvent company breathing space to deal with its financial difficulties. The administrator investigates the company's affairs and gives creditors
    information to decide whether the company should be allowed to keep trading or wind up.

    Sons of Gwalia's gold counterparties - nine banks and financial institutions - refused to accept a standstill agreement on the hedging debt.


    Hedging, which is a form of risk management used by companies to reduce the chance of a loss from price movements, includes tools such as forward selling and options.

      Citigroup Inc. (C) is understood to be the company's biggest hedging counterparty, with an exposure of between A$100 million and A$150 million.

    Other counterparties include: BankWest, a unit of HBOS Plc (HBOS.LN); Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS); JP Morgan (JPM); Dresdner Bank AG (DRB.YY); Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AU); Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) and HSBC Holdings Plc (HBC).
      


    As of June 30, Sons of Gwalia's 3.1 million-ounce gold hedge book had a negative mark-to-market value of A$348 million. It also had currency hedges that were A$75 million in the red.

    Sons of Gwalia also owes US$170 million to U.S. pension funds, following a private note placement in 2000 arranged by JP Morgan.

    The administration move has caught out some big North American companies, including long-term shareholders Teck Cominco (TEK.A.T) of Canada and U.S.-based Cabot Corp. (CBT).

    California-based Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN) has been a major buyer of Sons of Gwalia shares in recent months, boosting its holding to 20.7 million shares or 11% of the company.

    Analysts estimate that Franklin has invested more than A$50 million in Sons of Gwalia since it started buying shares in early 2003.


    May Recapitalize Tantalum Business


    The administration move surprised analysts, who expected the company to alleviate its financial problems via a strategic review that was due to finish this week.

    Some analysts had expected the company to book a A$350 million writedown of its gold assets, and potentially close its Tarmoola gold mine north of Kalgoorlie.

    But a loss of gold reserves uncovered during the review caused a breach of hedging covenants, making it uncertain whether Sons of Gwalia could meet its commitments.

    The administrators - three partners at Ferrier Hodgson - will work with directors to develop a plan focused on selling the gold business and recapitalizing the tantalum business, the company said in a statement.

    As well as being Australia's second-biggest gold producer behind Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU), Sons of Gwalia is also the world's single biggest producer of tantalum, a metal used in cell phones.

    Sons of Gwalia Chief Executive John Leevers said that several local and offshore parties had expressed an interest in buying the gold division in recent months.

    "We're aware that there are people interested, but there have been no discussions yet," he told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview.

    Leevers said that the out-of-the-money hedge book will make the proposed gold division disposal more difficult.

    "The sale was never going to be easy as the hedge book is a significant liability," he said.

    Leevers said that it is "very much business as usual" as directors and the administrator work on the restructuring proposals.

    A former Pioneer International Group executive, Leevers took over management early this year from founding directors Peter and Chris Lalor, who have since left the company.

    Creditors will decide the company's future at meetings to be held within a month.

    Some analysts are skeptical of the group's plan to trade out of its difficulties by retaining tantalum and selling the gold mines.


    "It is difficult to see a buyer for the gold business with the current hedge book in place," said Hayden Bairstow, an analyst at Patersons Securities.

    "There is more inherent value in the tantalum business, and in our view it would make an easier trade sale," Bairstow said.

    Patersons doesn't attribute any value to Sons of Gwalia's Tarmoola and Gwalia Deeps gold assets, leaving a valuation of around A$120 million for the remaining gold mines.

    Founded in the early 1980s, Sons of Gwalia became a pioneer in the use of hedging to protect its gold revenue.


    A merger in the late 1990s added tantalum to the company's mix.

    This saw Sons of Gwalia become a market darling during the technology boom of 2000-01 when its shares peaked at nearly A$10 each. Its shares last traded Friday at A$1.30, compared with their 12-month high of A$3.99.

    Demand for tantalum plummeted after the dot com crash, just as the company tried to absorb its PacMin Mining gold acquisition of 2001.

    Some of the PacMin assets, including Tarmoola mine, proved disappointing.

    Operating costs rose, but the company was pressured by the need to maintain production to meet its hedging commitments.


    Problems surfaced in 2002 when Sons of Gwalia started cutting profits and dividends.

    The problems worsened this year, with the gold and tantalum miner's shares halving in value since July 14 when it unveiled a profit downgrade.

    Sons of Gwalia sold around 2.1 million pounds of tantalum in fiscal 2004.


    The company produced 521,000 ounces of gold from its Western Australian mines in the same period.


    By Stephen Bell, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-8-9245-6408; sgbell@bigpond.com

    -Edited by Melanie Botts



    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    http://www.thebulliondesk.com/…ider.aspx?NewsID=20971671

  • Die Vietnamesen werden immer Gold freundlicher, und machen uns in Europa vor wie man mit Gold umgehen kann!


    Sie benutzen Gold als das was Gold seit tausenden von Jahren schlechthin darstellt, als Geld, und Benutzen es in immer grösseren Ausmas bei ihren Geschäften!


    Als ich selbst 1990 zum ersten mal Vietnam besuchte, gab es für 1 US Dollar etwa 5000 vitnamesische Dong. Heute gibt es bereits über 20000 Dong für einen Dollar. Eine gewaltige Entwertung der dortigen Papier Währung, wenn man auch noch den Wertzerfalls des US Dollars gegenüber den westlichen Währungen mit berücksichtigt, hat der vietnamesische Dong bereits cirka 90% seines Wertes eingebüsst.


    Gold hingegen hat in diesen vergangenen 14 Jahren nichts an Wert eingebüsst, im Gegenteil wurde Gold immer teurer, und legte noch beachtlich an Wert zu.


    Darum lieben die Vietnamesen Gold so sehr, dass sie immer mehr davon physisch importieren, und auch im täglichen Leben einsetzen.


    Wie schreibt doch der Manfred immer?


    Auf Gold ist eben Verlass !


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.bvom.com/images/Logo.jpg]


    http://www.bvom.com/news/engli…?.sequence=23607&.this=55


    First-ever gold transportation service introduced


    Vietnam Asian Joint Stock Commercial Bank (VAB) has just introduced the inter-city gold transportation service through Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang, etc. This kind of service is to meet the increasing demand for using gold in payment of real assets and other types of business.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.bvom.com/news/engli…es/313342004830001100.jpg]


    VAB accepts SJC gold (minimum of 3.75 g) with 2 day transportation (excluding days- off). The minimum transportation fee is VND 10,000 and the fee varies from VND 4000-8000/tael. VAB shall make prior agreements with its clients on delayed transportation cases resulted from objective causes. In case of delayed transportation, VAB shall be responsible for indemnifying the client by reimbursing the transportation fee (30% and 40% for 01 day and 02 days of delay respectively, 50% for 3 days and upward.


    Bvom - 08/30/04

  • Ulfur


    Wieviel Belege und Beweise braucht es eingentlich noch, bis der letzte Mohikaner wahrnimmt was er nicht für möglich halten will?


    Die Gold Preise sind "gemanagt"


    Da sind sie alle drin unsere bekannten "Gold Preis Manager" Citigroup Inc. (C) is understood to be the company's biggest hedging counterparty, with an exposure of between A$100 million and A$150 million.


    Nur die Deutsche Bank, und die UBS sehe ich bei Gwalia nicht an Board.


    Aus Deinem letzten Posting:


    Citigroup Inc. (C) is understood to be the company's biggest hedging counterparty, with an exposure of between A$100 million and A$150 million.


    Other counterparties include: BankWest, a unit of HBOS Plc (HBOS.LN); Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS); JP Morgan (JPM); Dresdner Bank AG (DRB.YY); Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AU); Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) and HSBC Holdings Plc (HBC).


    Mich wunderts nicht!


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru

  • Das Platzen der Hedgekontrakte dürfte dem Goldkurs morgen einen zusätzlichen Schub verleihen. Zuerst der Knaller mit dem Sprott-Report und nun diese Nachricht. Da geraten einige "Gold Preis Manager" nun ganz schön unter Druck. Jetzt fehlt eigentlich nur noch ein weiterer Druck von Investoren, die im größeren Maße in Gold anlegen.

  • ThaiGuru
    Bin gerade erst wiedergekommen und kann heute nicht mehr ausführlich antworten. Daher nur kurz ein Dankeschön für Dein langes und überaus sachliches (!) Posting (und den Textanhang !!) auf meine -zugegeben- emotionalen Beiträge.


    Irgendwie habe ich positiv das Gefühl, daß sich beim Gold etwas tut:
    Früher hättest Du auf solche Postings ganz anders reagiert :) Das muß etwas zu bedeuten haben :)


    Möchte nur mal klarstellen: Habe aktuell nichts verloren, na gut, wenn man einmal davon absieht, daß meine seit ca. Herbst 2001 (!) gehaltenen Durban an Wert verloren haben.
    Aber GFI, SSRI und Co sind doch schon wieder sehr schön gekommen.
    Meine Postings hatten wirklich nichts mit irgendwelchen Verlusten zu tun.


    Allerdings kann ich bei aller postiven Meinung über Gold und Silber so manches "Geschreie" nicht mehr hören..


    Butler hat nun lange genug gesagt, was zu sagen war - und Neues wird ihm nicht einfallen.. warten wir also ab, ob er recht behält oder nicht.
    Weigl halte ich geradezu für kontraproduktiv - er ist nachweislich (habe seine Mail hier bei mir ) GEGEN physischen Silberkauf und nur an seinen Provisionen interessiert, da führt für mich kein Weg daran vorbei.
    GATA - eine gute Sache, keine Frage. Ist aber auch vor Fehleinschätzungen nicht sicher (Denke nur, wie sie die Buschtrommeln für AFL gerührt haben - waren sie daran nicht sogar selbst beteiligt ?)


    Du schreibst:
    " Wir sind allesammt Spinner, die mit ihren Sprüchen, und mit Ihrem inzüchtigen Gesülze, und überbordenden Phantasien sich gegenseitig die Gold, und Silber Preise in schwindelerregende Höhen hochreden wollen."


    Das ist zu hart ausgedrückt: Fakt ist aber, daß man letztlich schon stets immer im Kreis sozusagen die gleichen Leute, die sowieso bullish für Gold sind, zitiert.


    Mit folgendem hast Du absolut recht, stimme Dir 100prozentig zu !:


    "Etwas gutes haben Deine letzten drei sehr emotionalen Beiträge aber sicherlich trotzdem aufgezeigt, man sollte in erster Linie physisches Gold, und Silber kaufen, und nicht überproportional Aktien von Südafrikanischen Minen erwerben, oder noch viel risikoreicher, in Derivative wie Turbo Calls, mit und ohne weiss was ich Zertifikate der Gold Bullion Banken investieren. "


    SIC !


    Jeder Anleger, ob er sein Fiat Geld aufs Spaarbuch legt, in Aktien deponiert, mit Derivativen seinen Adrenalin Spiegel befriedigt, oder lieber in Edelmetalle investiert, sollte seine Entscheidung erst nach reiflicher Ueberlegung, Abschätzung der Risiken, und entsprechend seiner eigenen finanziellen Mittel, selbst treffen."


    Absolute Zustimmung !


    " Sich nur auf Aussagen von Anlegeberater, Tipgebern, Börsen Analysten, oder überzeugten Befürwortern von Gold, und Silber Anlegern, wie Sinclair, Butler, Chapman, und vielen mehr zu verlassen, deren Ansichten, und Veröffentlichungen hier in diesem Thread oft gepostet werden, oder sich von meinerneigenen persönlichen Gold positiven Aussagen abhängig zu machen, genügt da eben bei weitem nicht."


    Ja ! Zumindest sollte man immer auch die Gegenargumente hören und offen bleiben auch für entgegenstehnde Meinungen.


    -------------------------
    (...).


    Der angesehene, und weltweit bekannte Finanzier John Hathaway, © Tocqueville Asset Management L.P., sprach vor gut zweieinhalb Jahren bereits, in einem Interview mit dem Forbes Magazin, zum damaligen aktuellen Goldgeschehen, und über eine zu erwartende zukünftige Wirtschaftsentwicklung, in dem er von einem möglichen Goldpreis von 2500.- Dollar, oder noch höher, innerhalb der nächsten 5 bis 10 Jahren sprach.
    Hathaway verfasste auch ein mehr als bemerkenswertes Papier, das sich wie sich heute herausgestellt hat, ein geradezu top zutreffende Arbeit zur Gold Preisentwicklung darstellt.
    Der Titel:
    "The Investment Case For Gold" !
    Habe dieses Papier an dieses Posting angehängt."


    Dafür vielen Dank !


    "(...). An den Empfängern Deiner heutigen Schwerthiebe (liegt es) sicherlich auch nicht, dass die Gold-, und Silberpreise in Euro gerechnet noch sehr wenig gestiegen sind.


    Habe ich nicht behauptet... Aber manche nehmen eben den Mund zu voll...


    "Dass die SA Minen trotz gestiegener Goldpreise immer weniger verdienen, weil die Minen zwar 45% mehr Dollars pro Unze Gold erhalten, jedoch wenn sie diese Dollar Einnahmen in ihre Heimatwährung Rand wechseln, mit der sie dann den Haupteil ihrer Produktionskosten und Löhne bezahlen müssen, erhalten gerade mal nur noch etwa die Hälfte Rand, von dem was sie früher für den Dollar bekommen haben. Dieser Umstand treibt die SA Minen in die Kriese, und liess unter anderem auch die Preise der Durban stark einbrechen."


    Ist bekannt... stimme zu, klar.



    "Daran ist sicher nicht GATA, oder die positiven Aussagen von Gold Bugs schuld. Die vergangene Währungsaufwertung des SA Rand gegenüber dem US Dollar, hauptsächlich auf Grund der Hochzinspolitik der schwarzen SA Regierung, war nicht in diesem Ausmass vorherzusehen, bei gleichzeitig nur wenig steigenden Goldpreisen, verursacht durch massive Gold Papierverkäufe "gemanagten" Goldpreis Manipulationen der Bullion-, und einiger Zentralbanken.
    Meinem eigenen Gold und Silber Aktien Depot gings auch schon zweimal besser als heute, doch meiner Einschätzung zur Lage der Wirtschaft, meiner Gold positiven Überzeugung, mit der m.A.n. höchst wahrscheinlichen weiteren Aufwärtsentwicklung der Edelmetallpreise haben die vergangenen Monate keinen Schaden zufügen können. Im Gegenteil.
    Schlaf doch noch mal drüber!"


    Klar - meine Positionen stehen nicht zur Verfügung :)
    Aber wie gesagt , und nur darum geht und ging es mir:
    Manche der in Rede stehenden Schreiber nehmen den Mund manchmal so voll und werden sprachlich immer ausufernder in ihren Reden... wohl in der Meinung, DAS würde oder könne den POG beeinflussen...


    Und ich würde gerne noch einmal den Rocked DROOY Bericht lesen (von wem war der eigentlich ?) Der ist das beste Beispiel dafür, was unseriöse Bauernfängerei ist. Und machen wir uns nichts vor: Auch und gerade bei den Minen wird gepusht und so mancher Schreiberling, der kleine Minen hochpusht, macht sich mit Sicherheit ganz schön die Taschen voll, indem er vorher kauft...


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru


    Gruß zurück,
    Spieler0815

    "So wie die Freiheit bleibt Gold nie lange dort, wo es nicht geschätzt wird."
    J.S.Morill in einer Rede vor dem U.S.-Senat am 28.01.1878.

  • Thai,



    schon irgendwie eigenartig,der Dollar fällt,und zerstört Rohstoffunternehmen weltweit.Gerade im Edelmetall Bereich leiden ja gerade Südafrikaner,und auch die Australier unter dem starken Verfall des Dollars,wie uns allen bekannt ist.Darunter sollten aber dann auch andere Rohstoff Produzenten leiden,denen stellt sich ja auch das Währungsproblem.Das müsste doch eigentlich bedeuten,das wir in naher Zukunft mit satten Preissteigerungen im Rohstoffsektor rechnen müssen.



    Grüsse


    Kalle

  • ThaiGuru: Kleiner Nachtrag:
    Da Du ja unbestritten über hervorragende Kenntnisse ,wie auch zB Dein Verweis auf den "alten "Hathaywaytext zeigt, über die Meinungen, die zum Gold in der Vergangenheit vertreten wurden, verfügst, würde mich Deine (und natürlich auch jede andere Meinung von Lesern hier) Meinung zu den Theorien und Gedanken von "Another" interessieren.


    http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.html


    Ich muß zugeben, daß ich mich mit meinen bescheidenen Englisch-Kenntnissen bislang noch nicht annährend durch die vielen Postings von ihm gearbeitet habe.
    Wenn Du insofern evt. in der Lage wärst, die Deiner Ansicht nach wichtigsten Aussagen (wenn Du sie für wichtig hältst ) einmal herauszustellen, wäre das natürlich sehr schön.


    Viele Grüße
    Spieler0815

    "So wie die Freiheit bleibt Gold nie lange dort, wo es nicht geschätzt wird."
    J.S.Morill in einer Rede vor dem U.S.-Senat am 28.01.1878.

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Spieler0815 ()

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com



    August 30 - Gold $407.60 up $4.70 – Silver $6.71 up 13 cents


    Daughters of Gwalia News Spurs Gold


    "Anyone offering thousands of contracts of gold on the Comex for sale within minutes of the close is attempting to depress price and not attempting to sell thousands of contracts. I am a pro and that is a fact. "
    - Jim Sinclair


    This is why they play the game. That phrase is an often used one in athletic events when a heavy favorite is upset by a big underdog. Same goes for the markets at times. The odds of The Gold Cartel going after gold today, and this week, were (still are) VERY high as a result of what they did on Friday and based on the COT report. The probability had to be as high as 90% when reviewing what occurred over the past six years. Only the strange Friday gold share action suggested something else might be up for today (see below).


    That something else was Sons of Gwalia blowing up, a major event and LONG predicted by both MIDAS and GATA. Here is the news:


    Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar fell after Sons of Gwalia Ltd., the second-biggest Australian gold producer, said it appointed external administrators, raising concern the company will sell the local currency to close out forward contracts and other derivatives.


    A review of operations at the company found a ``serious deterioration'' in the status of the company's gold reserves, which raised concerns about its ability to meet the commitments of certain derivatives contracts, or hedges, the Perth-based company said in a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange.


    ``Whenever foreign exchange markets see a company call in an administrator, there is an underlying assumption that some of those hedges will be unwound,'' said Robert Rennie, a Sydney- based currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. ``Sons of Gwalia does have hedged Australian dollar and gold positions on, and it may be the case that the administration process does see those positions shifted.''


    -END-


    This is significant and is hitting the market at just the right time for our camp. What this means is a demand shock is coming into play at the same time The Gold Cartel is desperately going through its available supply to hold the price down. This is a one-off event which will increase the supply/demand deficit for this year. In essence the creditors of Sons of Gwalia are forcing the company to buy back paper gold they SOLD years ago. When they sold the gold, it depressed the price. Naturally this buying will boost the price.


    The tip-off we might have a good day was last night’s early action in Australia/Asia. Gold was up $1.70 with the euro on the down side. After Friday’s tanking, this was most unusual. Gold held those gains and went on from there on Comex (London was closed for a holiday). The SOG news was generally credited for the gold rally. However, this has nothing to due with the price of silver rocketing higher and outperforming gold.


    The gold open interest fell 2013 contracts to 269,914 on Friday as expected with some funds getting out of recently established long positions. The silver open interest dropped 3320 contracts to 96,967 as specs exited long positions rather than rolling over positions as we go into the September delivery period.


    A mystery buyer showed up as a substantial gold buyer early on. He was aggressive early and let the market come to him later.


    Gold in euros made new highs for the move very briefly this morning.


    Here is the skinny on The Sons of Gwalia flap from a highly regarded source (as best he knows it):


    *SOG used to produce 520,000 ounces of gold per annum
    *Only produced 115,000 ounces last quarter
    *Have sold hedged 3 million ounces which includes 1.77 million ounces of puts
    *Hedge book underwater to the tune of A$243 million
    *2 of 9 counter-parties balked at restructuring – thought to be Goldman Sachs and McQuarie
    *Goldman Sachs and McQuarie balked even though they did a secondary financing around six months ago for 19 million shares at $3.35 per share


    Once again, we get clear insight into the extent the gold price is being managed by reflecting upon what transpired Friday. Gold was threatening to break out, yet it was clobbered by Goldman Sachs after Goldman capped the price ALL WEEK LONG. Had gold been $412 when the Daughters of Gwalia news hit, it might be $420 bid this morning with all the specs as big winners. Realizing the Gwalia news would be bullish, they needed to take gold down on Friday to move it out of harm’s way.


    At the same time, since the managing crowd knew what was ahead for Monday they bought up the gold shares. Then, they sold into that news this morning. This continuing strange gold share pattern did not go unnoticed. I saved the following email from last Friday afternoon in anticipation of something unusual happening today:


    Bill
    I have been busy lately, so to save me time this Seattle Sun post says it all.
    After the cabal have creamed the call options at Friday 01.30 EST expiry by bopping gold, with the support of the Fed/ and media friends, they then buy up the HUI gold stocks after the closure of Comex, to profit from the insider trading manipulations and covering of their shorts which they know will come on Monday, ie higher gold and gold stocks.
    Woops I duplicated SS 's comments below , instead of letting them speak for themselves!


    I guess you have lots of comment on this and will take the best summary of it to keep up the pressure on the cabal that started with the Sprott report this week.
    Best
    Alan


    Miners Stocks (HUI) Rising after the Spot Gold Market Closes


    SeattleSun
    Aug 27, 16:21
    I have posted about this pattern before but here is what I thing is going on:


    1) After the spot market for gold closes in the USA, then
    2) the miner's stocks (HUI) are bought in the last 1 hour of trading of the US stock trading.


    Next Sunday night / Monday morning the
    3) the US Dollar is sold and falls (1%) then,
    4) with the spot gold market open it raises (1%) as the dollar falls and
    5) then the miners stocks (HUI) which are leveraged to the spot price of gold by 2 or 3 to one rises 3% or so.


    LETS SEE IF IT PLAYS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
    Comments welcome.
    SS


    ***


    The Gwalia news is a GATA I told you so. Veteran Café members and GATA supporters know how long ago GATA predicted this would occur and why. Long ago, cabal apologists and a number of those who report on the gold market scene chided us over and over again. Were it not for the continued price-capping and suppressed volatility on the upside (by keeping gold within its designated $6 Rule parameters), we would have seen even more Daughters of Gwalias right now.


    Here are excerpts from a MIDAS blast from the past for you:


    (Gold was right above $300 and fading after the Washington Agreement rally as The Gold Cartel was digging in big time)


    The Hatfields and the McCoys
    October 24, 1999


    Growing up as a kid, I remember reading about these two hillbilly families in Kentucky named The Hatfields and the McCoys. While they had so much in common, they were always sparring with each other over their whiskey making, women, territories and general ways of going about things.


    That appears to be what we have now in the gold producing world. The Hatfields are the gold producers that still believe in the use of substantial forward sale coverage a la Barrick Gold, Normandy Mining, Sons of Gwalia. The McCoys believe in minimal, or no forward sale coverage, at this point in time. That camp includes Gold Fields, Newmont Mining, Homestake Mining, Agnico-Eagle, etc.


    All of these companies have so much in common, but significantly disagree about the wisdom of forward coverage in today's gold market.


    As a result of the serious financial problems of Ashanti and Cambior, this issue is the hot topic of the day in the gold world and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.


    Earlier this week, I went to Denver to visit with as many executives from gold mining companies as I could who were attending the Denver Gold Group Conference. Last Sunday, GATA encouraged gold company shareholders to send faxes to these companies offering support to the McCoys and urging the Hatfields to take in their forward coverage.


    Our logic is very straightforward:


    *The supply/demand fundamentals are very bullish. Much higher gold prices are on the horizon.
    *Shareholders invest in gold companies to benefit from a rising price in gold. As proven on the recent price upswing, the share prices of heavily hedged producers will lag.
    * Potential gold share investors will scrutinize hedging policies in increasing numbers and shy away from the heavily hedged producers. They will do so because of a desire to profit from advancing gold prices; more and more shareholders will not want the discomfort of fearing company collapse because of a booming gold price. Increasingly, they will shy away from the big hedgers.
    *The horrific fates of Cambior and Ashanti will further scare away potential investors from the heavily hedged gold producers on the next gold price upswing.
    *Executives who do not take prudent action by taking in some coverage when they can on this price setback will most likely face the wrath of shareholders in the future………


    GATA's fax campaign was right on target. The action that Café member and world famous novelist, Arthur Hailey, took of announcing that he sold his Barrick Gold shares because of their hedging policies, made its mark. As more and more Arthur Haileys of the world take similar action, the share prices of these heavily hedged companies will lag. This will cause the institutional money managers to dump these shares in a relative sense as these managers compete on a performance basis. This will exert further pressure on management to reduce forward coverage, etc. That is just a matter of time and is a given in my book. That is why GATA will encourage these companies to cover sooner rather than later. Good for them and good for gold as producer buybacks can only be very constructive for the gold price…….


    On to the Aussie hospitality suite. Right up my alley, being a beer drinker.


    First up, was Peter Lalor, Chairman of the super hedged Sons of Gwalia. I was introduced to the Chairman by Peter Bojtos as they used to work together. PB got a chuckle out of having the two of us meet as we are on the opposite ends of the hedging spectrum.


    -END-


    Bottom line was I explained to Peter Lalor what was liable to happen to his firm in the future if it did not substantially mend its hedging ways. He just laughed… however he did not get the last one. That’s for sure.


    (GATA was persona non grata at this conference and specifically barred from attending the conference itself. That did not stop me from going to the various parties and some dinners).


    Fast forward to this appropriate comment by GATA’s Chris Powell at the beginning of last year:


    January 3 (2003) - Gold $350.90 up $5.10 - Silver $4.87 up 8 cents


    HUGE Physical Market Buying Out of the Middle East Propels Gold to New Highs


    The hot rumor of the session was that Sons of Gwalia, the big Aussie hedger, is imploding. Supposedly, they have a big problem with a 310 call position. I will track that one down as best I can. GATA's Chris Powell puts it best:


    "When their hedge book rips their manhood off, they'll be the Daughters of Gwalia!"


    -END-


    Another Daughters story:


    Hi Bill
    Here is the story on Sons of Gwalia in Mining News (the main electronic journal on Mining in Australia):


    http://www.miningnews.net/StoryView.asp?StoryID=28853


    Note the first and second paras -- the company failed due to its hedges!


    Congratulations on calling this as likely some time (2 years?) ago. GATA has consistently provided the best explanations of what is going on in the gold world, and I read your daily column with interest.
    Go GATA!
    Cheers
    David


    By the way, those institutional money managers who listened to GATA back in the Fall of 1999 and put money on the Newmonts instead of the big hedgers like Barrick, were well rewarded. Back then Barrick traded at a par with Newmont. These days Newmont has gone to a $25 per share premium. The difference between investing in the two has been like night and day. One bet was a big winner, the other a real dog.


    Got a call from our STALKER source this afternoon. From his bullion dealers in London we learn the following as to their thoughts:


    *Gold demand is good now and expected to accelerate in the weeks ahead.
    *Something "BIG" could be in the works. They are not sure what but the smell is out there.
    *Looking for gold to hit $412 to $415 by week’s end.
    *Silver is becoming increasingly tight just as it did last Spring when it soared to $8.46. They see the same thing happening all over again as far as the price action is concerned. While this particular event may not occur again, you might recall the British Mint reneged on some details due to lack of supply.


    The gold chart sure firmed up as a result of today’s action:


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/84


    While it was wonderful to see gold come right back after Friday’s beating, it still was capped and the $6 Rule went into effect – up $6 for the Comex session was its high. In addition, gold was immediately taken down 70 cents in the Access market when gold reopened. How tiresome! Whenever gold has a good day, the cabal hits the bids when it reopens so as to influence the evening’s price action.

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    The John Brimelow Report


    Shanghai up; Gwalia down


    Monday, August 30, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.82, PM $5.92, with world gold at $403.30 and $404.50. Ample for legal imports, despite a weaker rupee. India continues to underpin world gold at these prices.


    Somewhat surprisingly, the Far East repudiated the beating gold received in NY on Friday. Prices firmed up, and stood $2.20 higher than the NY close at the end of the TOCOM, with the active contract up 2 yen. Volume surged, by 94% to the equivalent of 26,803 Comex lots. Possibly some fresh buyers appeared, although this is not obvious from the open interest, which was static (up 22 Comex lots). (NY on Friday traded 49,641 contracts; open interest slipped 2,013.)


    Encouragingly for gold’s friends, prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange moved to slight premiums today, after 3 weeks of quite deep discounts. If this is sustained, it will mark the first time this summer Shanghai has tolerated world gold over $400.


    Friday saw continued steady selling in gold. Standard London observes:


    "Trading in Asian hours on Friday provided the highs for the day at $408.55…strong selling in London emerged…gold predictably fell in New York…combined with the selling that emerged in Europe, the market soon dropped to post the day’s low…"


    ScotiaMocatta attributes the modest recovery at the close to "physical buying". Although they report that stop loss orders were triggered, the decline in open interest was actually quite modest for a $5+ fall in the metal. As the small rises in gold shares suggests, the bulls seem undismayed.


    Another bill from the bullion banks’ extraordinary hedging debauch of the gold mining industry came due today with the bankruptcy of Australia’s Sons of Gwalia. Those with deep enough scars will remember that this firm was spoken of in the same reverential tones as Ashanti and Barrick, in the heyday of gold financial engineering. Two down, one to go….


    Sons of Gwalia’s hedge book is reported to have been 81 tonnes, small in relation to the trade seen in the past couple of weeks. There is some thought that it is "toxic", that is, could swell in size if gold rises. This is now the problem of their creditors, who may have been taking safety measures recently. Even so, this event is not large enough to explain the recent behavior of gold entirely.


    Analytically, the main impact of this collapse will be to make it even less likely that significant hedging will return to gold mining. The negative consequences on a miner’s cost of capital via the damage done to share prices will far offset any marginal financing advantage.


    London was closed today.


    JB

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The US stock market had a bad day on light volume with the DOW closing at 10,122, down 72, and the DOG dropping 26 to 1836. Both closed on their lows.


    The dollar only fell .06 to 89.74, while the euro went up .34 to 120.54.


    The SEP bond contract made new highs for the move and is breaking out. Action such as this is hardly an endorsement the economy is surging.


    September bonds
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/94


    While Wall Street continues to spin, spin spin what it wants the public to believe, the nitty-gritty of the economic news is not strong at all. Today we hear spending is back up, yet income is not keeping pace. This does not bode well for the future. Eventually spending what you don’t have will catch up. Debt, debt, debt can’t win in the end.


    08:30 Personal Income reported 0.1% vs. consensus 0.5%; spending 0.8% vs. consensus 0.7%
    Prior income unrevised 0.2%; spending revised to (0.2%) from (0.7%).
    * * * * *


    WASHINGTON, Aug 30 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending rebounded sharply July, government data showed on Monday, erasing the disappointment of June and bolstering hopes that the U.S. economy has recovered from its recent soft spot.


    Personal spending rose 0.8 percent, more than making up for a revised 0.2 percent fall in June, the Commerce Department said. The improvement in consumption was actually even larger since June's spending had been initially reported as a 0.7 percent decline.


    But personal income advanced at a more modest pace than expected, posting a 0.1 percent rise compared with a 0.2 percent gain the previous month. July's advance was the weakest reading since November 2002. –END-


    From The King Report last evening:


    "Bloomberg reports Chinese demand for commodities has put shipping rates at a four-month high. This obviously suggests that Chinese government efforts to cool China’s economy, more precisely its commodity buying binge, have not slowed the economy as much as they desire."


    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:
    The Federal reserve added $9.25B in temporary repurchase agreements today August 30th 2004, an action that caused the repo pool to dip a bit to $52.765 Billion and kept it very high. The DOW is weak, bonds completely subdued and gold jumped to $405.10 exactly at the PM Fix, a spike to a pre-set number if one ever existed.


    Let's review the Fed's force application process: The Fed's primary dealers submit bids for and receive repos (Almost always far below their requests) from the Fed who issues temporary or permanent government securities, a repurchase agreement is one that reaches maturity on a future date from over night to as long as 28 days. This financial instrument is then presented as collateral to a banking institution and the cash funds are then used to "implement monetary policy" as the Fed declares.


    Buying DOW futures to keep it elevated when it would otherwise fall is "monetary policy". The same is true for the bond futures market when the primary dealers buy "policy puts" to suppress the yield on government bonds.


    Critics of the repo hypothesis point to the huge size of the DOW and bond markets and assert that they can't be steered by the $50 Billion daily pool (recently topping $70 Billion intra-day). These critics fail to appreciate that futures markets steer underlining markets and that the futures are far smaller in size than their "markets". An apt example is the COMEX gold market itself. It is smaller by an order of magnitude (10X) than the LBMA gold market and yet investors accept that its pricing mechanism is valid, thus the futures tail wags the market dog.


    The fact remains that their are undeniable correlations between the issuance of permanent and temporary open market operations directly linked to major government "monetary policy" events, such as the putative "Iraq War Rally".
    It was a Fed engineered event and clearly not an investor driven phenomenon.


    Will the dollar fall?


    It doesn't seem to be falling. Indeed, it is rising quite nicely since early in the year. This, after the Fed arbitrarily upped the MCDI by 1.4% on Dec 16th 2003 by adjusting the currency weights that comprise the MCDI (A group that is not identified anywhere in the Fed's domain, even after an exhaustive search by two experts).


    Depending on how one measures it, the dollar charts look pretty good. Actually they look as good as gold looks bad and therein lies the clue that the dollar is as managed as gold. As the Fed runs the dollar up, do gold bugs really need the dollar to fall in order to profit? Not exactly.


    The ³dollar² doesn¹t have to fall if you think about things. All that needs to happen is a run on physical metal by only a few principals or sovereigns as a consequence of failing market and fiscal confidence in the US economic system. We don't need the dollar to fall...only a squeeze on physical which can be unrelated to its price condition. John Brimelow reports elsewhere at the café on this very issue seeming to play out.


    Economic weakness...story leaking out


    Richard Russell¹s recent report about 500,000 job applications for 3,000 longshoreman jobs in Long Beach, California is a pretty good indicator of the level of employment deterioration that has occurred. Information like this can trigger the required confidence loss to trip important gold wires. It is difficult to offset that kind of bad economic news with feel-good election rhetoric from the president. The financial media's continued loss
    of credibility in general is another way to measure the rising loss of trust among the larger financial entities whose potential move to physical the Fed dreads. This erosion in media credibility is the rising resistance that will eventually break the Fed's interventional plans.


    The dead US economy evidenced by the above longshoreman turnout is a function of overcapacity and more Fed credit money from the Bernanke printing press only means more useless capacity (if one discounts the war machine whose fruits are indeed bitter these days). In any event, the Fed's new war capacity is hardly productive.


    Look for pivotal deterioration to occur in the credibility department and lead to the abandonment of hope for the "light at the end of the economic tunnel" and a resultant shift away from Wall Street's conventional paper investment ³wisdom².


    DIVG


    The DIVG is rising ever-so-persistently and the Fed tries to disguise it each day up until the very last minute (10AM). It's still a bit early to predict the Fed's next DIVG phase goals but IF the dollar keeps rising as noted above, then gold will fall by a lesser amount to keep a rising DIVG.
    The Fed is planning something new to replace their May 24th to late August hammer and I need some more time to determine their true intentions. Meanwhile, I hear from other detail-oriented computer analyst colleagues that their normal COMEX and Fed metrics are getting very jumbled so as to suggest a big event soon. Stay tuned.


    Too extreme?


    The Fed defaults the COMEX as their precious metals exit strategy. This view at first appears extreme. My answer to this reasonable critique is found in the Master of the Universe¹s Friday comments from Jackson Hole, Wyoming at the Fed's annual shrimp fest in the mountains. He darkly warns of defaulting Social Security (raising the retirement age is a default). Adding further insult to the idea of government and corporate integrity on Friday, leading US companies (AA, Friday's latest abandonment of their pensioners at $8 Billion) are defaulting their retirement funds so fast they are getting writer¹s cramps (by attempting bankruptcy as United is contemplating they throw their pensioners to the wolves). Tossing the paper gold speculators would be easy for a Fed that glibly speaks of stiffing your widowed grandmother, while others in their administration pump up her pharmaceutical bills, greasing their deep pocket Pharma buddies.


    The increasing bankruptcy waves (a feature of deflation) is but one side of the Fed's monetary policy bitter harvest. The other is printing press inflation. Together they deliver stagflation to the already crushed financial media credibility. This is to be the economic future and gold is a reasonable life boat.


    Energy woes in the ME continue


    +++++++++++++++++
    Rebels blew up a pipeline inside an oilfield in southern [8/28/04]
    http://www.story.news.yahoo.com/news...p/iraq_oil


    BAGHDAD, Iraq - Rebels blew up a pipeline inside an oilfield in southern Iraq (news - web sites) in the latest in a series of attacks on the country's oil infrastructure that has cut exports from the key southern oil fields in half, officials said Saturday.


    Saboteurs hit a pipeline late Friday that runs within the West Qurna oilfields, 90 miles north of the southern city of Basra, sending plumes of fire and smoke leaping into the air, said a South Oil Co. official in West Qurna, who asked not to be named.


    The attack will effect exports, though it was not immediately clear by how much, the official said. The fires were extinguished by Saturday afternoon.


    Separately, a domestic oil pipeline in Nahrawan, a desert region 20 miles east of Baghdad, was ablaze Saturday, Associated Press Television News footage showed. END
    +++++++++++++++++++++++
    And finally this piece on oil depletion which is defined as an "extra demand" http://www.energybulletin.net/1752.html


    "What it means is that before you meet a single barrel of demand growth you have to replace all the missing barrels," he continued. "Depletion is really an extra demand. Countries where oil production is still expanding are being put under increasing pressure to make up growing depletion rates. It's a huge drag on the system."
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


    The era of cheap energy and price stability is over and you and your family are the only ones you can count on.
    Mike


    From Barron’s on government reporting – right up the MIDAS alley:


    quote
    YOU'D THINK THE REPUBLICANS, champions of free enterprise and mighty crusaders for tax cuts, could catch a break from the economic gods as they strut their stuff before the nation in prime time. But nothing doing. The dreary parade of dismal dispatches on the economy that surfaced on the very eve of the GOP extravaganza makes you wonder if those gods aren't in a mischievous mood after imbibing too much of their favorite nectar. Or maybe out of sheer perversity, they've decided to vote Democratic this year.


    What rouses such unseemly suspicions are the revelations that second-quarter GDP was even less exuberant than originally reported, that sales of homes, both of the new and existing variety, declined in July, that new claims for unemployment insurance in the latest week took a bigger-than-expected jump, that, as per July's dip in the help-wanted index, jobs are harder to come by, that pacesetting outfits like Wal-Mart and Starbucks aren't tearing up the pea patch the way they usually do, that techs are struggling anew amid a glut of inventory, that last month's durable goods orders were disappointing on a number of counts -- it pains us too much to go on.


    As if all this weren't enough, the Census Bureau chimed in with some truly depressing news just as the Republicans were about to come marching in. To wit: 1.3 million more unfortunates found themselves below the poverty line, raising the total of poor folk in this fair land to 35.9 million; the recovery hasn't done very much for median household income, either, which remained stuck at $43,318 last year, and 2003 also wound up on another melancholy note with 45 million people, or 15.6% of the population, bereft of health insurance, up from 43.6 million, or 15.2%, the year before.


    The report, incidentally, was released a month ahead of time; apparently, Karl Rove didn't cotton to the idea of this sort of discouraging data coming out that much closer to Election Day. As to the rest of the sorry litany -- housing, jobs etc. -- we can only assume that most of the reliable number fudgers were on vacation and those that weren't were concentrating on the consumer-price index.
    Unquote


    -END-


    You will find this of interest. Sounds like the empty Fort Knox story we heard months ago from one of the local truck drivers down that way:


    bill, years passed, i talked to a friend who told me he had an interesting job at fed for the summer. he was re-stacking gold bars at fed reserve bank. made 13.50 per hour, and said he was surprised to find when he entered the vault how little work had to be done. in other words, there was a lot less gold than he was led to believe. the powers that be, wanted it brought forward and stacked up front for a photo op. at the time he and i did not think much about it, but now it makes infinite sense. they wanted it to look like more than it was!! incidentally, photographers were not allowed in the vault, but could only take pictures from a roped area. at the vault door. reminds me of the wizard behind the curtain in Alice in Wonderland!! thanks for the info on law suit. regards, paul


    Housing bubble input:


    Hi Bill,
    From Business In Vancouver Magazine page 14 " West End Rental Market Wobbles "


    In summary of the article: Downtown residential rental vacancies are at a high of 7 to 10% which is a 30 year high in vacancies. As if that is not enough, an estimated 47% of all the new condos being built are being built for spec investors who are hoping to rent them out at $C 2.00 a square foot (are people nuts?).


    I was downtown this morning and stopped counting at 10 of the 25+ story condominiums being built in the downtown / false creek core. I can’t imagine what is going to happen when these thousands of new units hit the rental market.


    It is truly amazing reading and analyzing the impact of excess liquidity and the bubbles it creates and then to go see it with your own eyes. The fact that people charge into this market (many to their economic doom) is astounding. One day the cranes will stop.


    This is going to be absolutely brutal.
    Best,
    Dave.


    Over the years we have had mainstreamers constantly query as to the motive of The Gold Cartel’s price manipulation scheme. Dave Lewis, in his fine commentary at The Little Bear Table, hits the nail on the head:


    If Mr. Embry is correct about official/financial sector collusion suppressing the price of Gold, the monetary authorities have blinded themselves, perhaps, in part, by attempting to blind economic agents to their failures. Lord Acton's dictum, power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely, comes to mind as I contemplate the current state of monetary affairs, as does the old adage about the fox guarding the chicken coop. Obfuscating the movements of Gold among countries, and, to the extent it is occurring, manipulating prices only serves to keep the people, and apparently the policy makers, in the dark as to the potential for economic disruption. –END-


    An example of the superb effort so many GATA supporters have made over the years:


    Hi Bill,
    I sent out 30 plus notices to media, brokers, papers etc. about Embry's report.
    If this new report is not enough to stir up S. Africa, I may have to go down there and kick some ass! They need to file a formal complaint against the U.S. with the State Dept. U.N. etc. etc..!!
    Regards,
    Brad


    This anecdotal silver input fits right in with what we are hearing from London:


    Bill-
    I talked to a small coin dealer I know the other day and he said that silver bars now have large premiums and that for the first time since around 1980 dealers are calling him up to ask if he has any bars or 90% coins. If he wants to order 100oz bars he pays a 50 cent premium plus shipping. He also said gold coins are in demand.
    I have polled this dealer for 12 years or so and this is the first time he has mentioned this tightness in the market. I thought you and the readers might be interested in this little tidbit.
    As always, we all owe you for your courage and persistence. I love it when your critics say you are too hot tempered. If only you could be like those go-along to get-along types who dominate the PM industry! In light of what we are dealing with I say, stoke the coals!
    Buzz


    I am running out of different ways to describe my disgust at the goings on in the gold market world. Friday, the shares run-up because the insiders know what is coming. Yet, those same insiders bomb gold for The Gold Cartel. Today they sold all their shares and then lit into them late in the day, nullifying the excitement generated on the bullion side. One of the cabal’s mantras is to dampen public interest in gold and the shares by maneuvers such as this one. This is no Amateur Hour operation. It is extremely sophisticated and very consistent.


    The XAU lost 1.52 to 92.85 and the HUI sank 3.19 to 202.13. Still not a word from the pitiful gold industry about Sprott Asset Management’s Special Report (Not Free, Not Fair: The Long-Term Manipulation of the Gold Price). They are pathetic! If the industry would run with this enlightening material, the constant price management nightmare would end. What a bunch of sad sacks!


    Gold will eventually explode in spite of the leaders in the gold industry and their organizations, surely not because of them.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    Appendix


    Mahendra put out the following to his subscribers. He continues on a roll. You would be stunned (well probably not any more) by the number of BIG PLAYERS who follow what he has to say:



    Dear Friends,


    I am putting a small part from my newsletter again in Lemetrocafe. The last week remained quite stable for metals and metal stocks. Oil went down while coffee remained strong. For this week, I would like to submit a brief but clear message to my followers.


    Metal Investor’s – The one hundred year long wait is finally getting to a close and your number is now next on the queue.


    I would like to once more draw your attention to 4 September. I have talked of this date for long and the waiting is nearly over as the day will finally dawn during this week. The day however falls on a Saturday, during which the world financial market will be closed. I have been predicting for years that metals will strongly rise from September 4, 2004. Once again, I am happy to announce and confirm in this newsletter that yes, metals will start rising very strongly from 4 September. The dream of those who have been waiting for a rally for years will soon be fulfilled.


    I shall be 36 years old on this same date and I feel especially fortunate and elated that my birthday should coincide with the commencement of such a momentous phase.


    GOLD


    My astrological calculations indicate that gold will start rising from 4 September and will be around $448 by 29 September. This translates to a 10% rise. I am eternally grateful to astrology and my methodology since they have enabled me to predict even the prices. When people read what I have predicted well in advance, a few that don’t comprehend how I can predict prices feel that I am crazy. If you can review a few of the predictions from my book, you may start to ruminate on the reason why my methodology has not been accorded due significance.


    For instance: When I completed my 2004 book last year in September I said several important things:


    Oil will continue to rise slowly till the middle of 2004 and after 20 June 2004 a major rally in oil will start and prices will touch $50.
    Silver prices will touch $7.95 in early 2004.
    Gold will touch a new high on 2nd April.
    Platinum prices in early 2004 will cross $900.
    Soybean prices will crash
    After 21 June don’t remain in buying position in Dow Jones etc…
    My anticipated rise in metals will really be a testing time for my work on gold because I am expecting a very strong rise from 4 September and rising momentum will continue for whole month of September. . The rise of Gold prices could be the subject of big talk in the financial community as well as media houses.


    Last year I made a very important statement on gold and silver; "Many big money powerhouses will start accumulating gold and silver". This is what I now see happening. I am predicting that Billions of dollars will move into gold and silver during the month of September 2004.


    I know that many of my followers have been waiting for the coming of a good time in metals. In addition to being excited of the imminent rise in metal prices I am also thrilled because the power of truth or real money (gold/silver) will become manifest. This is gradually entering into financial houses and edging out the power of paper currencies power. It is taking over exchange control which has promised to deliver value. It is therefore a matter of little time before gold becomes the heart of financial transactions.


    YOU WILL SOON WITNESS THE POWER OF DESTINY – AND FOR WHICH I LOVE MY METHODOLOGY (OR YOU CAN CALL ASTROLOGY, PROPHECY, VISION OR WISDOM).


    Thanks & God Bless


    Mahendra


    http://www.mahendraprophecy.com

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.tradesignal.com/img/menu/logo.gif]


    http://www.tradesignal.com/def…l/analyse.asp&id=6841


    Rolle vorwärts - Gold: Daumen nach oben


    von Ralf Flierl, Smart Investor Magazin, 31. August 2004 17:16, 89


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.tradesignal.com/cnt…9/Portrait/FLIERL9090.jpg]


    Na also: Im Vergleich zur letzten Woche haben sich praktisch sämtliche Indices ein Stück weit nach oben orientiert. Interessant erscheint, wie stabil sich der Goldpreis über der psychologisch wichtigen Marke von 400 US-$ halten kann – und sogar auf Euro-Basis zuzulegen vermag.


    Einige reguläre Leser des Smart Investor Weekly werden fast schon überrascht sein, wenn wir diese Woche unsere zuletzt geäußerte Meinung nicht revidieren müssen. So viel Selbstkritik muß erlaubt sein: Da die Märkte in den letzten sechs Monaten kaum von der Stelle kamen – unter dem Strich sogar leicht rückwärts tendierend –, sahen auch wir ziemlich schlecht aus. Wer wußte aber im März schon, daß sich in den nächsten Monaten unter dem Strich rein gar nichts ereignen würde? Wir jedenfalls (auch) nicht. Im Nachhinein weiß es man es in der Regel besser als vorher.


    Einträchtig an einem Strang


    Wie im letzten SIW 35/2004 beschrieben rechnen wir mit einer vielleicht nur schleichenden Entwicklung nach oben, an der berühmten Wall of Worry, weil zu viele Marktteilnehmer skeptisch scheinen, was die nähere Zukunft anbelangt. So kam es, daß sich unser bekanntermaßen höchst volatiler Dax binnen einer Woche auch mal um 4 % nach oben hieven konnte. Mit derzeit 3.820 Zählern befinden wir ungefähr 1 % innerhalb des sich zuspitzenden Dreiecks – im Prinzip gibt es der in den letzten zwei Wochen vertretenen Meinung kaum etwas hinzuzufügen, die da lautet: Bis an den oberen Rand der Dax-Flagge bei rund 4.100 Punkten dürften Investoren skeptisch und daher unterinvestiert sein / bleiben. Sentimenttechnisch wäre es deshalb locker möglich, daß sich der deutsche Index für Standardwerte „unbemerkt“ bis an diese Begrenzung schleicht, ohne viel Aufhebens zu machen. Wenn dann prozyklische Auguren den Einstieg verkünden („Ausbruch aus der Flagge, jetzt Kaufsignal“) dürfte es möglicherweise schon wieder zu spät sein. Bis dorthin wären allerdings erst einmal 8 % zurückzulegen. Eine positive Börse im Vorfeld der US-Wahlen ist somit weiterhin möglich, zumal Bush Junior und auch Greenspan in freundfeindschaftlicher Eintracht kaum Wasser in den Wein rieseln lassen werden. Ein zufriedener Anleger ist schließlich ein potentieller Wiederwähler.


    Nichts dran?


    Eine Sache erscheint zum gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt allerdings erwähnenswert: Die Umsätze – nicht nur an den deutschen Börsen, auch in den USA – sind momentan auf sehr niedrigem Niveau eingefroren. Mit anderen Worten: Aktien und Indices bewegen sich schon mal aus ganz anderen als fundamentalen Gegebenheiten. Diesem Kursgeschehen sollte man daher keine allzu große Bedeutung zumessen bzw. in jeder Kursbewegung eine irgendwie geartete Motivation aufstöbern wollen. Traditionsgemäß beendet der Labour Day in den USA (also nächste Woche Montag) die Sommerferienzeit. Bevor wir nun weiterhin im Kaffeesatz von vielleicht doch nur erratischen Kursbewegungen herumwühlen, lassen wir es besser bei dem Gesagten bewenden.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goingpublic.de/news/pictures/HBAAARXaWR0.gif]


    Gold glänzt


    Kommen wir deshalb zu den Märkten bzw. Regionen, wo sich tatsächlich etwas abspielt. Dies sind beispielsweise Öl und Edelmetalle, wie wir es in der letzten Woche bereits angedeutet hatten. Der Ölpreis hat wie erwartet ein wenig nachgegeben, während sich Gold stabil über der Marke von 400 US-$ hielt. Was nicht selbstverständlich war. Als US-Notenbankchef Greenspan letzte Woche im Zuge seiner Rede die üblichen gefälligen Äußerungen kundtat, drohte Gold unter 400 US-$ zu brechen. Diese Bewegung wurde zum Wochenauftakt allerdings wieder nach oben invertiert. Da der Dollar diesmal nicht schwächelte, legten Edelmetalle vor allem gegen unsere Heimatwährung Euro zu (derzeit 338 Euro pro Unze Gold bzw. 5,56 Euro pro Unze Silber) – ein sehr ermutigendes Zeichen für die beiden Haupt-Edelmetalle. Im ersten Chart sieht man den sehr schönen Zusammenhang zwischen den US-Auslandsschulden (dünne Linie) und dem Goldpreis (verknüpfte Dreiecke) über die letzten sechs Jahre. Da die US-Schulden nach allem, was wir heute wissen, in naher Zukunft kaum weniger stetig und rasant steigen dürften, wird man sehr bald wissen, ob sich die Goldgemeinde hier nur eine Scheinkorrelation, also einen nur scheinbaren Zusammenhang, zurechtgebastelt hat. Jedenfalls gilt es, diesen Gleichlauf weiter im Auge zu behalten.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goingpublic.de/news/pictures/HBFAAWXaWR0.GIF]


    Musterdepot


    Wie schon angekündigt – sowohl im neuen Smart Investor Weekly 9/2004 (werfen Sie online einen Blick auf das Inhaltsverzeichnis über diese Verlinkung) als auch letzte Woche im Weekly – wollen wir uns im Edelmetallbereich nochmals verstärken, nachdem Durban Roodepoort Deep ja kürzlich aus dem Musterdepot entfernt wurde.


    Entsprechend greifen wir jetzt bei Newcrest Mining (WKN: 873365) zu, denn die von uns erwartete Goldpreisschwäche im Nachgang zur Rede des US-Notenbankchefs hat sich nicht zur Gänze eingestellt. Newcrest wiederum kann gerade heute mit einer weiteren Ausweitung seiner Goldressourcen aufwarten. Diese betragen jetzt 62 Mio. Unzen, was einer Steigerung von weiteren 9 Mio. Unzen im Vergleich zu letzten Verlautbarungen entspricht – wir waren ohnehin bereits von 58 Mio. Unzen ausgegangen. Der größte australische Goldförderer kann die Zuwächse vor allem mit Funden im Cadia East-Gebiet in New South Wales untermauern. Der Aktienkurs notiert derzeit praktisch auf einem neuen 17-Jahreshoch. In unser Depot werden 500 Stück zum morgigen Schlußkurs eingebucht (derzeit 8,65 Euro).


    Ein weiterer Kauf, den wir schon angekündigt hatten, betrifft die Aktien des Kali- und Düngemittelherstellers K+S (WKN: 716200). Diese Aktie bewegt sich auf einem Mehrjahreshoch (in diesem Fall sogar Allzeithoch), und auch dieses Unternehmen wartet mit immer neuen, positiven Nachrichten auf. Marktbeobachter sind immer wieder aufs Neue von der Qualität des Konzerns überrascht. Dabei sollte die gute Geschäftsentwicklung eigentlich bekannt sein, bewegt sich K+S doch seit Jahren in Märkten, deren Stärke ihre Stetigkeit und seit kurzem auch die Preisdynamik ist – der Kali-Preis steigt genau wie andere Rohstoffe. Finanzvorstand Norbert Steiner wies zudem im Interview mit Smart Investor (siehe obigen Link auf das Inhaltsverzeichnis) auf den nach wie vor großen Handlungsspielraum der Unternehmensleitung hin, die Aktionäre weiterhin an der sehr guten fundamentalen Entwicklung teilhaben zu lassen. Eine Dividendenerhöhung für 2004, über deren Höhe noch beraten wird, ist quasi sicher (Vorjahr: 1 Euro je Aktie). Zum morgigen Schlußkurs nehmen wir 150 Stück in unser Portfolio auf, womit unsere Musterdepotliquidität auf eine Quote von ca. 8 bis 8,5 % sinkt.


    Viel Freude bereiten uns im übrigen die Anteilsscheine der Starnberger Beteiligungsgesellschaft Arques Industries. Durch die Übernahme des Stahlchemiegeschäfts von der Degussa kam erneut Bewegung in den Kurs. Mit jetzt 26 Euro kann sich das Unternehmen von der allgemeinen Lustlosigkeit abkoppeln und seine Performance seit Musterdepotaufnahme auf deutlich über 50 % ausbauen.


    Auf unserer Beobachtungsliste streichen werden wir fürs erste den Goldtitel Compania Minas de Buenaventura. Wir wollen die Abhängigkeit vom gelben Edelmetall auch nicht überreizen. Für unseren Silberbereich drängen sich Neuengagements eigentlich nicht auf, wenngleich das Schwergewicht Hecla Mining nach wie vor eine sehr charmante Ergänzung zu unseren bisherigen Positionen darstellen würde, da die in Idaho ansässige Gesellschaft im Gegensatz zu unserem Musterdepotwert Silver Standard Resources bereits produziert.


    Fazit


    Im Vergleich zur letzten Woche können wir unsere Einschätzung nur unterstreichen. Erst wenn ab nächster Woche die Urlaubszeit ad acta gelegt ist, muß sich zeigen, ob die Aktienmärkte noch eine wie auch immer geartete Vorwahlrally auf die Reihe bekommen. Das muß keine Kursexplosion sein, eine Form der kontrollierten Offensive würde auch schon reichen nach sechs Monaten Seitwärts-Krebsgang.


    Derweil laufen Rohstoffe und Edelmetalle wieder recht gut, und dieses Mal sogar nicht nur wegen eines Dollar-Schwächeanfalls. Hier bleibt unser großes Bild latent oder auch deutlich steigender Preise voll intakt – allerdings müssen Anleger hier einen übergeordneten Zeitrahmen berücksichtigen und sich vor faulen Äpfeln in acht nehmen (die es doch offenbar überall gibt). Die australische Sons of Gwalia zum Beispiel steht seit vorgestern unter Konkursverwaltung. Wer hier im Vertrauen auf einen spekulativen Small Cap in der Goldgilde ein Spielchen wagte, wird jetzt einen Totalverlust verbuchen.


    Falko Bozicevic, Tobias Karow
    Smart Investor Magazin


    Ein kostenloses zweimonatiges Kennenlern-Abo des Magazins Smart Investor kann unter http://www.smartinvestor.de/abo angefordert werden.

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