Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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Zhongjin Gold mit Gewinnrückgang

Shanghai 31.08.2004 (asia-economy.de)

Trotz eines 55 % Umsatzanstiegs auf 1,4 Mrd. Yuan konnte der chinesische Goldförderer Zhongjin Gold seinen Nettogewinn im ersten Halbjahr nicht weiter steigern und mussste einen Gewinnrückgang um 8 % auf 12,7 Mrd. Yuan in Kauf nehmen.
Hintergrund für das schlechtere Ergebnis waren höhere operative Kosten. Im zweiten Halbjahr sollen die Umsätze sogar um 12,8 % zurückgehen, da sich der Goldpreis unter dem vergleichbaren Niveau von 2003 aufhält.

Insgesamt plant das Unternehmen eine jährliche Förderung von 30 Tonnen Gold, was einem Anstieg von 12,8 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr entsprechen würde.

Zhongjin Gold ist einer der ersten inlandsnotierten Goldaktien in China und erfreut sich deshalb eines großen Bekanntheitsgrades. Allerdings werden die Aktien nur in Shanghai notiert und dürfen nur von Chinesen gekauft werden. 10:42 (al)

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International Forecaster September, 2004 (#1)

Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster

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GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

The gold suppression cartel is looking down the barrel of superior firepower and it is called physical off-take. Americans and Europeans may be dumb when it comes to gold but the rest of the world understands. In addition, there is plenty of speculative buying power available, thus the fireworks have just begun.

We believe the Argentines have gotten the elitists’ attention. Virtually broke they buy 42 tons of gold. They have to now be number one on the new world order hit list. We must say they have a lot of guts. They have to know what the consequences will be. They are now playing the same game Alan Greenspan is on creating monetary aggregates.

Doesn’t it seem strange that there has been not one word in the purchased general media about John Embry’s, Sprott Asset Management Report on the rigging of the gold market? The only exception was the Toronto Globe & Mail. How totally irresponsible, and yes criminal. Those lame idiots at the World Gold Council, Gold Fields Mineral Service and the executives of major mining companies have not said a word. What a classless bunch of jerks.

We also read Tim Wood’s tasteless, acidy interview with John Embry of Sprott Asset Management. We continue to recommend boycotting Mineweb, that piece of journalistic garbage masquerading as mining news. The Sprott Gold report when we look back will be recognized as a milestone in the history of gold’s greatest bull market. It is one of the finest reports ever produced in the brokerage industry and after 45 years in the trenches, we speak from experience. The research is without peer. This report will be a major turning point in the gold bull market. Institutions, hedge funds and central banks have been put on notice; this is just the beginning of a raging gold bull market like none other seen in history. Wait until the public realizes what has been done to them. They will show little mercy.

Dubai’s retail jewelry trade saw sales increase 5% in June, July and August versus last year. Consumption has been up each of the past four years and if this rate continues gold prices will move $70 higher to $480.

Japanese July gold imports were 140% above last year. Their appetite for gold rose 8.655 tons. It could be the Japanese are about to return to gold in a big way.

Russian officials handling the sale of a stake in oil giant Lukoil have set an opening price of $1.9 billion for 7.6% of the company. It pumps 19% of Russia’s oil. It is also a significant global player with 2% of worldwide production and 1.5% of reserves. The two front running bidders are Conoco Phillips and Dabir Investments run by David Guggenheim.

Sprott Asset Management announced the publication of Not Free-Not Fair: The Long-Term Manipulation of the Gold Price. The study represents the most thorough and detailed examination of allegations that the gold market has been subjected to severe price manipulation over the past several years. The summary can be read in its entirety on Sprott Asset Management’s website: http://www.sprott.com

mehr......

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kalle14

Dein Zitat:

Zitat

schon irgendwie eigenartig,der Dollar fällt,und zerstört Rohstoffunternehmen weltweit.Gerade im Edelmetall Bereich leiden ja gerade Südafrikaner,und auch die Australier unter dem starken Verfall des Dollars,wie uns allen bekannt ist.Darunter sollten aber dann auch andere Rohstoff Produzenten leiden,denen stellt sich ja auch das Währungsproblem.Das müsste doch eigentlich bedeuten,das wir in naher Zukunft mit satten Preissteigerungen im Rohstoffsektor rechnen müssen.

Genau damit müssen wir erstmal rechnen!

Doch Vorsicht ist angebracht bei längerfristigen Rohstoff Investments.

Im Falle einer Währungs/Weltwirtschaftskrise, ausgelöst durch einen weltweiten Börsencrash, und einer Dollar Währungskrise, oder auch in umgekehrter Reihenfolge, könnte die jetzige riesige Nachfrage nach diesen Rohstoffen innert kurzer Zeit massiv einbrechen.

Praktisch alle Verbrauchsrohstoffe wie z.Bsp. Kupfer, Aluminium, Eisenerze, Kohle, Blei, Zink, und Zinn wären m.A.n sehr stark betroffen. Auch die Oelpreise würden höchstwahrscheinlich stark fallen, ausser vielleicht in dem Falle, wenn Oel ein Stellenwert (neben Gold, und Silber, oder evtl. dem Euro, oder Yen), als Verrechnungseinheit im Internationalen Handel, anstelle des US Dollars, eingeräumt würde.

Investitionen in physisches Gold und Silber, sehe ich, wenn man die beiden Edelmetalle unbedingt in die Kategorie Rohstoffe einordnen will, als DIE Hauptgewinner, die im Krisenfalle anders als die obengenannten Rohstoffe, sofort weltweit die Rolle von vertrauenswürdigem Geld übernehmen würden, und mangels Angebot bei Gold, und Silber, sehr stark preislich anziehen dürften. Die Untergrabung fast jeglicher Rentabilität der Gold, und Silber Förderung durch den anhaltenden Dollarpreiszerfall, respektive die Aufwertung von nicht Dollar Währungen, wie in Süd Afrika, und/oder starken Ertragseinbrüchen in Australien, Canada, etc., wird im Endeffekt die Goldproduktion, bei einem heute bereits jetzt schon über 10 Jahre bestehendem massivem Gold Produktionsdefizit, noch mehr zusätzlich schrumpfen lassen, und daduch Gold noch weiter verknappen, und teurer werden lassen.

Falls die FED zusammen mit Ihren "Primär Dealern", und weiterer von ihr kontrollierter, oder beeinflusster Zentralbanken, die sich bereits jetzt, weitgehend unbemerkt von der grossen Masse der Bevölkerung , in vollem Gange befindliche Welt Finanzkrise weiterhin kontrollieren, und "managen" kann, oder falls unerwarteter Weise ein Wunder geschehen sollte, und die FED die heutige Krise in einen realen Wirtschafts Aufschwung verwandeln könnte, dann würden sicherlich die oben genannten Rohstoffe mittel-, und langfristig preislich extrem profitieren können.

Gold, und Silber wären m.A.n. jedoch auch in einem solchen von mir nicht erwarteten Falle die beste Wahl.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Wahoo

Deine Sorgen darüber, dass wir in Euro rechnenden Goldanleger aussen vor bleiben, wenn die Goldpreise langsam steigen, jedoch sich der Dollar in diesem Rahmen sich jeweils entwertet, sodass wir unter dem Strich praktisch überhaupt nicht vom Gold Preisanstieg profitieren können.

Befürchtest Du, das dies mittel-, oder langfristig weiterhin so bleiben wird?

Möchte Dir anhand eines Beispiels aufzeigen, dass dieses Szenario eben nicht so bleiben wird, ja sogar langfristig überhaupt nicht möglich sein kann.

Angenommenes Beispiel:

Der Dollar wertet weiterhin gegenüber dem Euro ab, und steht in 3 Jahren bei 1.80 für 1 Euro, was gegenüber heute ca. 1.20, einer Aufwertung des Euro gegenüber dem Dollar von 50%, oder knapp 17% pro Jahr entspechen würde.

Der Goldpreis angenommen steigt auf nur $618.- pro Unze, was einem Preisanstieg von 50% gegenüber dem heutigen Goldpreis von $ 409.- entsprechen würde.

Das würde folgendes bedeuten.

In Euro gerechnet wären die Goldpreise überhaupt nicht gestiegen, und die Goldpreise würden weiterhin wie heute mit ca. 340.- Euro pro Unze bewertet. Man hätte also dadurch den Wert seines eingesetztes Kapitals erhalten.

Man kann ohne weiteres davon ausgehen, dass in einem solchen Beispielfalle die Währungen goldproduzierender Länder wie Australien, Canada, Süd Afrika, etc. ebenfalls stark aufgewertet würden. Wenn es sich wie in meinem Beispiel Dollar - Euro auch um eine Aufwertung von 50% handeln sollte, würde dies bedeuten, dass diese Goldproduzenten 33% weniger für ihr produziertes Gold erhalten als heute.

In Südafrika müssten dadurch sämmtliche Gold Minen ihre Goldproduktion einstellen, weil sie nicht nur nichts mehr verdienen wie heute, sondern mit jeder weiterhin produzierten Unze Gold gewaltige Verluste einfahren würden. Die Gold Produktion Südafrikas müsste eingestellt werden. Durban, Harmony, Gold Fields, wären innerhalb kurzer Zeit am Ende.

Australien, Canada, und die anderen Goldproduzierenden Länder deren Währung sich gegenüber dem US Dollar wie in meinem Beispiel aufwertet, würden zum grössten Teil nicht mehr Produzieren können, und Konkurse von Gold Produzenten und Gold Explorern wären an der Tagesordnung. Die Goldproduktion müsste bei den meisten Gold Produzenten wegen Unrentabilität eingestellt werden.

Kurzum:

Je länger die Gold Preis Manipulateure (Zentralbanken, Gold Bullion Banken, Weltbank, IMF, BIZ, etc.) in der Lage sind die Gold Kurse an einen fallenden US Dollar zu koppeln, desto weniger wird weltweit Gold produziert werden können. Im negativsten Falle, bei einem von vielen Analysten gesehenen möglichen Dollar Crash, bei gleichzeitiger weiter bestehenden Gold Kotierung in US Dollar, könnte theoretisch sogar die gesammte weltweite Gold Produktion wegen Unrentabilität zu einem Stillstand kommen.

Vier zukünftige mögliche Szenarien fürs Goldgeschehen:

1. Es bleibt alles beim alten, die Preise werden weiterhin "gemanagt", die weltweite Gold Produktion kommt dadurch wegen Unrentabilität und einem weiter fallenden Dollar zum erliegen, die Goldminen werden in vielen Ländern verstaatlicht, es wird ein Gold Handels, und Gold Besitzverbot erlassen, wie es bereits früher in Deutschland, Amerika, etc. der Fall war.

2. Der Dollar steigt wieder stark an, damit sich die Goldproduktion rentiert und erhöht, damit das Gold Produktiondefizit von bereits mindesten 1500 Tonnen pro Jahr ausgeglichen werden kann.

3. Gold wird nicht mehr in Dollar, von neutralerer Seite als der privaten mit der FED und Bullion Banken verwurzelten LBMA bewertet, und beginnt endlich seinen manipulierten Preisrückstand gegenüber nicht US Dollar Währungen auszugleichen.

4. Gold kann sich selbständig aus der Preis Diktatur der Gold Cabals dank stetig steigender Nachfrage, und immer grösser werdendem Produktiondefizit lösen, und steigt massiv gegenüber allen Währungen an.

Ich Tippe auf letzteres

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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August 31 - Gold $409.50 up $1.90 – Silver $6.75 up 4 cents

The Battle For $410 Gold

Zitat

"An old, long-whiskered man once said to Teddy Roosevelt: 'I am a Democrat, my father was a Democrat, my grandfather was a Democrat.' Roosevelt then said: 'Then if your father had been a horse thief and your grandfather had been a horse thief, you would be a horse thief?'" --Will Rogers

The battle goes on. The reasons to buy gold are as bullish as they get. As a result, The Gold Cartel is doing all it can to keep gold from rising and possibly getting out of control on the upside. With rumors flying about what kind of buying is kicking in as a result of the Daughters of Gwalia disaster and the euro taking off today, gold was held in check. First, the cabal took it down on the day after opening $1 higher (with the euro up over .50) and then stopped surges above the $410 level all day long. With gold $410.60 bid going into the close, the cabal went into action to top off their day’s price-rigging, knocking it down $1 on the bell. Mission to defend $410 accomplished.

This crooked crew managed to hit gold late even though the euro eventually rose 1.21 to 121.69 and the dollar fell .78 to 88.96. If gold the dollar is able to take out key support at 88.70, it might really tank.

Once again we are shown how secondary the dollar action is compared to The Gold Cartel activity is when it comes to determining the gold price. With what all else is going on regarding gold and the Daughters mess, gold should have gone $415 bid today, EASILY.

Nothing new here from the bad guys. They operated the same way in early July right below $410. What is new since July is news of Argentina buying 42 tonnes of gold surfaced, the Sprott Special Report was released last week and now the Daughters have blown up. All of those are constructive developments for the price of gold and should have the market flying.

What remains to be seen if the cabal will be overpowered by so many positive gold developments. It is only a matter of time before they will be. We all just want it to happen yesterday. Watching these crooks operate without interference from the regulatory authorities is both grueling and infuriating.

The gold open interest fell 1733 contracts to 268,181.

There was all sorts of commotion in the option pits. Goldman Sachs was seen as a featured buyers of gold puts and so were a few other key operators. Whether this buying has anything do with the Gwalia mess remains a mystery for now.

What is so bothersome about the gold world and those who report on it is their dishonesty. We are hearing about all this buying which was, and is, to be done to unwind the Daughters’ hedge positions. Then, why isn’t the price of gold soaring? It has barely moved, gone up chump change. Why don’t these nefarious clowns ever report who the sellers were and why. Clearly there are coordinated forces out there operating to keep the price of gold at certain levels.

Silver was very sluggish again. Morgan Stanley was a seller and has become very bearish. The late buyer was none other than Goldman Sachs.

The silver open interest dropped 568 contracts to 96,399.

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The John Brimelow Report

Bears stressed

Tuesday, August 31, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.31, PM $6.18, with world gold at $407.80 and $408.40. Ample for legal imports. A Reuters report from Singapore today contrasts the confident expectations of Indian bullion dealers with the glumness of Far Eastern operators. Another story has appeared, courtesy thebulliondesk, suggesting that demand in the Gulf has been unusually strong this summer. See

http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/44544.html

Japan reverted to passivity today. TOCOM volume dropped 17% to the equivalent of 22,245 Comex lots. The active contract was unchanged, while world gold was 30c above NY at the close. Open interest edged down the equivalent of 766 Comex lots. While kilo bar premiums according to Reuters are steady at an undemanding 50c, which makes them amongst the highest in the Far East. (NY yesterday traded 39,273 lots; open interest slipped another 1,733 contracts.)

Minesite.com, the always interesting UK source, carries a note on the Sons of Gwalia debacle, pointing out that they were intimidated out of covering the story by threats of legal action by the company. See

http://www.minesite.com/archiv…aug-2004/gwalia310804.htm

Sons of Gwalia, of course, has not been the only heavy hedger to use this technique.

The Bears appear in something of a quandary here. They would like to argue that the Sons of Gwalia impact will be fleeting, and that the build up of spec long positions has been so rapid and so substantial as to be now precarious. There is the thought long positions have been taken for the Republican Convention, and will be reversed immediately it is over. However, they realize that it is well known that there was also a massive seller present in the past couple of weeks (UBS says of Monday:

"the gold market was quiet yesterday with the only feature some determined buying from one European bank on the Comex floor that lifted the metal by about $4/oz as there was little selling around, in contrast to last week." (JB emphasis)

Also, the physical market has not backed off (Standard London:

"Notable physical interest remains around the $403 level…")

which offers the possibility that casual spec longs will be able to exit easily.

An interesting aside is SG Commodities’s comment:

"Gold-producing countries are now ready to lend their gold reserves at very low rates to cover some of their expenses rather than leave the gold sitting in their account…Rates are now negative up to the 1-year, which is trading at zero. With the 10-year barely above 100 bp, these are the lowest rates the market has ever seen." (JB emphasis)

Gold’s friends will find it encouraging that such cheap funding is forsworn, presumably because of the basis risk – a huge contrast to the pre LTCM era.

JB

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

How many Hail Mary rallies late in the day is the DOW going to have before the mainstreamers on Wall Street are going to talk about possible shenanigans to goose the US stock market? The DOW was nowhere (lower on the session) till after 2:30 when the word must have gone out to the price supporting consortium. Bonds rallied once again because the economic news (see below) was not good. What is going on in the real world is of little importance to the PPT when they have been instructed to do their thing. The DOW shot up 51 to 10,171, while the DOG was dragged higher, gaining 2 to 1838.

The US economic news continues to disappoint. For the last 3 to 6 weeks the data has consistently come in modestly weaker than expected. Today was no exception:

07:45 UBS chain store index (0.2%) in 8/28 week after +0.1% in the prior week
* * * * *

08:55 Redbook chain store sales index (1.1%) though 8/28 vs July
This is a slight deterioration from the (1.0%) reported through the 8/21 week.
* * * * *

10:00 August Chicago Purchasing Manager reported 57.3 vs. consensus 60
Prior reading was 64.7.
* * * * *

10:00 Aug. Consumer Confidence reported 98.2 vs. consensus 103.5
Prior reading revised to 105.7 from 106.1.
* * * * *

NEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply in August, breaking four straight months of gains, as a slowdown in job growth creation and rising oil prices weighed on sentiment.

The Conference Board, a private forecasting group, said its measure of consumer sentiment fell to 98.2 from a revised 105.7 in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a fall to 103.5

The present situation index fell to 100.7 from 106.4, while the expectations index fell to 96.6 from 105.3.

The percentage of consumers who said jobs were hard to get was little changed at 25.8 percent, compared with 25.7 percent in July. But consumers saying jobs are plentiful decreased to 18.1 percent from 19.7 percent.

"The level of consumer optimism has fallen off and caution has returned," Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center said in a statement. "Until the job market and pace of hiring picks up, this cautious attitude will prevail." –END-

11:14 WTO confirms it has authorized sanctions against U.S. -- Dow Jones
The EU, Japan and Brazil won approval from the WTO to impose tariffs on imports from the U.S. in reaction to Congress failing to end illegal corporate subsidies worth $850M since 2001. The EU has yet to decide if it will impose sanctions, which are generally targeted as import duties on specific goods. Complainants will be able to fine the U.S. up to 72% of money collected under a U.S. antidumping law.
* * * * *

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $4 Billion in temps today August 31rst 2004, an action that upped the repo pool to its highest level since I began the series, $56.765B (They added $4Billion later yesterday in the PM). This move takes the repo ma back onto the upslope even as the DOW's 30-day ma is slipping to new lows for the move. I continue to believe that the recipient for all these repo funds is oil derivatives. It is useful to note that the oil tanker
capacities as measured by the un leased VLCC fleet shows a sizeable 64 available of 98 reported leases. This implies but does not prove that oil is being produced as fast as possible and yet still cannot fill the tanker pipeline. The issue is MUCH more complex than this simplistic snapshot but non-the-less things ARE in a tight bind.

Players are girding for an expected market "event" of some kind in the near future. What this is to be is anyone's guess but enough has been posted about it to give the idea reasonable credibility.

Saville's latest: Right Trade Imbalance Track/Wrong Concept

In describing the Fed's trade imbalance position Steve reports what he sees as their "story" line:

"...the massive current account deficit reflects the US's superiority from an economic and investment standpoint..."

He goes on to rail against the false US treasury demand creates by Japan's (mostly) buying and concludes things have a way to go:

"There are no signs at this stage that the aforementioned artificial demand for US Treasury debt is abating, the result being that the huge US current account and trade deficits are not generally perceived to be large problems. This will change, though, because until the extent of the problem is officially acknowledged a solution won't be sought. And until a viable solution is sought and put in place the problem won't go away."

What Saville fails to appreciate is there will NEVER be an official Fed acknowledgement of a trade imbalance problem no matter how high the imbalance grows. This is because the Fed already knows they are implementing a cruel hoax on the world by having Japan inflate their currency through the purchase of US treasuries and because that inflation is sequestered and out of circulation they temporarily escape the ravages of price rises due to
inflation. Indeed, Mr. Greenspan has officially admitted a joint Japan/US plan to support each others currencies...the rigging is all out in the open. He will never concede defeat by admitting a problem in the trade imbalance for to do so would negate the Fed's entire interventional structure. They NEED Japan's trade surplus to the US not to mention their purchases of treasuries so the Fed CAN'T admit that the trade imbalances are a problem.

Waiting around for the Federal Reserve to admit damage they themselves caused isn't useful. Threat the Fed as adversaries of the truth and stop imagining they will somehow act "normal".

National debt, going broke...again

Folks, get ready for anything from the government as we plunge along into the next "refunding" Act of Congress. The deficit blowtorch is set on full but we seem to need another load of acetylene. It will happen before the end of the year because the wild spenders again need to raise their debt ceiling. They will once again justify it as a war on renewed DEflation...or was that a war on INflation? I guess I need a program to tell the difference. Better, we need TWO programs one for the smashing depression and another to count Bernanke's enhanced monetary "production" that he imagines will offset the depression. STAGflation by any other name.

DIVG

The Fed has once again set a course upward in the DIVG. It's growth track is a bit shallower that the Feb to May slope but up none-the-less. I keep reminding folks that the gold game is a long term affair and that one shouldn't be concerned about day-to-day actions. The important metric is the long term moving average of the DIVG. This is the item the central banks use and you should too.

Whether the PM fix tops $430 by month's end is less important than accepting that the DIVG is headed up again on a VERY tight track. There remains a slight possibility that the Fed may conduct an assault in about a month's time but this complexity seems remote at the moment.

A small note: The EU has adopted an 8% tax on the sale of bullion from the US over a trade dispute (Thanks to Jim Turk for reminding me). While apparently a squabble, this act serves to thwart the movement of bullion from the US to EU countries, just the kind of action that the Fed would WANT should they slam the door on the COMEX at $400 per ounce. That would quickly lead to skyrocketing bullion prices elsewhere, like Shanghai.

While the Fed and cbs set a DIVG plan, gold speculators and metal seekers eat away at it. I continue to believe that at any moment a sufficiently large entity can present demands that will quickly exhaust current gold inventories and THAT event will be seismic. Hugo Chavez, Vincente Fox, players in the ME can do it almost at any time, so adopting a gold position in preparation is vital.
Mike

More from Mike:

Hi Bill:

If anyone harbors lingering doubts over the importance of the DIVG in evaluating the Fed's operational goals, examine the attached chart with particular attention to the yellow long "pma". This is a proprietary metric that follows the tracks of the Fed's MCDI (major currency dollar index) and the LBMA PM Fix. The vertical data scales have been normalized.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/DIVGComponents.gif]

Note the exact correlation between the abrupt changes in BOTH the MCDI and the PM Fix. Their pattern correlation suggests that BOTH are formally linked.

This is why I combine them to yield a DIVG metric, it saves me the trouble of guessing at the value change in gold and I think this is what the cartel also does. In other words, the cartel targets the DIVG as their principle goal in today's gold war.

Although the PM Fix is slipping in the long pma, I know from other metrics that the Fed has decided to head up in the DIVG at a shallow rising slope for now.
Mike

But, there is no inflation:

Midas,

I just looked at the Chicago NAPM report. The prices paid component indicates prices climbed to "the highest in 16 years." Also 18% of respondents reporting higher prices. Those reporting lower prices remains at 4%. Same as last month. Clearly a soft patch with rising prices and inventories. What a mess for the Fed.

http://www.napm-chicago.org/current.pdf

Rich
shrehdq
Aspen, CO

Don’t Worry, Be Happy on the Inflation Train

"Don’t worry about those noises off in the distance on the inflation train", pipes the Conductor. "And there’s no such possibility as a ‘Bridge out Ahead’", soothes the Engineer.

"Rising oil, steel, and food prices are not a problem for this train", advises our Tour Guide. "Asia will always be able to export inexpensive, quality goods to us and our dollars are highly appreciated in return."

"What about unemployment and underutilization that you have in your country?" a foreigner on the train asks. "We will always be able to borrow and buy", confides the Guide.

"And don’t pay any attention to news of higher silver and gold prices", adds her assistant. "These are not money and the vaults are full of these things anyway. So our people are quite happy to save in our banks and earn interest. Our investment markets with rising stock, bond and real estate prices are the safest in the world."
Dan O’Shea

On the oil front:

China's stockpile of oil helps to bolster prices

August 31, 2004

EVIDENCE is mounting that China is buying more oil than it consumes, raising fears that oil hoarding may be supporting the current high price of crude.

The signs of aggressive Chinese stockpiling emerge from research by Merrill Lynch, the investment bank, which suggests that China is importing crude and refined products at twice the rate of growth in actual demand.

Rampant economic growth in the People’s Republic over the past two years has enabled China to overtake Japan this year as the world’s second largest oil consumer, burning some 6.3 million barrels a day.

Projections of the rate of growth in consumption in the People’s Republic suggest that China’s power generators, road hauliers, petrochemical plants and factories will burn an extra 500,000 barrels a day of crude oil this year. But Merrill Lynch’s analysis of implied demand, based on import data in the first and second quarter of this year, suggests that demand will increase this year by one million barrels a day.

Rest of the story here:

http://business.timesonline.co…e/0,,8209-1240069,00.html

-END-

According to a report at Minweb, "A second half gold production performance hampered by poor weather and lower grades saw Australia’s 2003/04 financial year (FY) total slide four percent to 274 tonnes (or 8.8 million ounces) versus the previous FY."

We see this pattern all over the world of falling gold production for various reasons. The bottom line is The Gold Cartel is going to find itself in BIG trouble as the months wear on from here on in.

Two quickie notes from Aussie Café members on the Gwalia fiasco:

Hi there Bill:
Are we ever rejoicing for getting out of SGW at 8.97$ (now at 1.30$ and going down...) some years ago when you (GATA) advised us of what was in the pipeline. Thanks so much for your insight.
Jean-Marc

Go GATA - you blokes have had it right from the start!

Ian

The gold shares rebounded catching those who sold yesterday going the wrong way. The cads don’t always get it right. The XAU went up 1.94 to 94.79 and the HUI gained 5.26 to 207.39. Both closed at their highs.

We know what The Gold Cartel is up to. What remains to be seen is if some unexpected market development sends them reeling. We need gold to fly away from $410 fast, not just look like it will. The way positive surprises have gone our way the past couple of weeks, this no stretch way of thinking. There is no reason for the recent trend to change. ‘Bout time the breaks go our way.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Bill
I have some comments on how gold mining companies raise finance, and on hedging, which lead on from your first Midas item on Friday.

1) Juniors can raise sufficient cash for exploration by equity financing;
eg Private Placements, provided the brokers/banks and their investors consider the project attractive, and that the general market conditions are friendly to mining projects. The latter was the case up to approx 1997, and then from 2000 to the present day.
From 1997 to 2000 the market crashed with the suppression of the gold price to its low in the 250's. The juniors who survived this period are the Darwinian stars of today, but many others did not survive. Exploration requires approx 1 to 50 million us$ depending on the number and scale of the projects. Equity dilution by PPs can be minimised in the friendly market periods when share prices are relatively high and rising.

2) Financing a mine requires much more cash.
Depending on the size of the mine and location, infrastructure, and access, the amount required can be 100 million up to over 1 billion US$.
100% equity financing here is normally too dilutive to the share price, and so some element of debt financing becomes necessary.
This is where the Bullion Banks play their trump card and demand that the PM company hedges x mill ozs with the Bullion Bank as a precondition for the loan.

3)How can the PMs avoid hedging while financing new mines?
This is one of the key questions to stop the suppression of the gold price. I dont pretend to have any magic response to this problem, but if I make a few comments and we open it up for debate amongst cafe members, maybe together we can find some useful ideas.

a)The most obvious answer is to find another Bank that will finance the project without demanding hedging.
However, this may prove difficult, especially among the often mentioned Bullion Banks, who are regularly seen shorting Comex.
For reasons as described admirably in this weeks Sprott report, they often have a vested interest in depressing the gold price.

b)A convertible loan into shares of the company? Equity dilution could be reduced if the loan terms were taken positively by the market and resulted in a rising share price.

c) Loans from Banks outside of the Bullion industry.

I could provide more suggestions here, but I think the above are enough to get the ball rolling.
What we need now is some suggestions from the experts in the industry, who support Gata, such as the Sprott team, who as mentioned above have just this week produced their great Report on the gold market, which is circulating everywhere on the internet currently.
Best
Alan

kalle14

Wir sind uns schon einig, dass Investitionen in Rohstoffe grosse Chancen bieten, vor allem gerade jetzt und auf mittlere Sicht.

Trotzdem befürchte ich, dass bei einem von mir erwarteten Crash unseres jetzigen Derivate, Fiat Money, und fraktional Banking Systems, die Nachfrage nach Rohstoffen massiv einbrechen würde.

Bei Gold, und Silber sehe ich im Gegenteil eine sich explosionsartig steigernde Nachfrage.

Rohstoffe sind sicherlich eine sehr gute Anlageform, doch bei einem globalen Währungs/Börsen Crash würden aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach eben auch die Rohstoffpreise bald massiv einbrechen, weil die Nachfrage einbrechen würde.

Mit was glaubst Du, würde China ihre benötigten riesigen Rohstoff Importe bezahlen, wenn sie eines Tages festellen müssten, das ihnen die USA / FED ihre Dollar Guthaben gesperrt hat. Wieviel an Waren glaubst Du würden in China nach einem solchen Szenario noch in die USA geliefert. Falls der jetztige kontrollierte Wertverlust des US Dollars, eine Eigendynamik entwickelt, die Abwertung ausser Kontrolle gerät, eine Hyperinflation alla 1923/24 in Deutschland entsteht, und die US Dollar Devisenreserven Chinas, und aller anderen Länder dieser Welt, sich ihrem inneren Wert (NULL) nähern, was glaubst Du würde mit der Nachfrage nach Rohstoffen passieren.

Viele Anleger glauben zu Unrecht leider immer noch, dass die riesigen US Dollar Devisenreserven Chinas auch in China gehalten werden. Ganz Uninformierte glauben sogar, dass es sich bei Dollar Devisenreserven um wirkliche Banknoten handeln würde.

Der grösste Teil der Devisenreserven Chinas, und der meisten Länder dieser Welt befindt sich nicht in diesen jeweiligen Ländern, sondern im Ausland. Auf digitalen Konten bei der FED zum Beispiel, oder bei der City Bank, bei JP-Morgan, Goldman Sachs, und anderen grosen Finanzinstituten. Auch die offiziellen Goldreserven von Zentralbanken, deren Bestände ("Zahlen Spielereien") jeweils von der Weltbank veröffentlicht werden, befinden sich zum grossen Teil, abgesehen von wenigen Ländern mit grösseren physischen Goldbeständen, ebenfalls im Ausland, und können ohne grosse Probleme von den USA, oder ihren Verbündeten, denke da vor allem an Grossbritanien, mit ihrer privaten Bank of England, und der privaten LBMA, deren Aktionärsstruktur sich bemerkenswertzerweise teilweise mit derjenigen der privaten Federal Reserv Bank überschneidet, blockiert werden. Die benötigten Gesetze dazu, auf die im "Bedarfsfalle" zugegriffen werden könnte, bestehen in den USA bereits.

Wenn jemand überzeugt davon ist, dass kein Crash bevorsteht, dass den Amerikanern ihre riesen Schulden weiterhin von der ganzen Welt finanziert werden wird, und unser "Fraktional Banking" und "Fiat Geld System" mit allem drum und dran, nochmals 10, 20, oder noch mehr Jahre weiter existieren kann, ja dann würde auch ich davon ausgehen, dass Investitionen in Rohstoffe auch langfristig eine sehr gute Wahl sind.

Leider glaube ich nicht daran, dass letzteres der Fall sein wird.

Darum bevorzuge ich Gold, und Silber als Langfristanlage.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://www.aktiencheck.de/anal…etype=5&AnalysenID=462509

Analysen - Ausland

01.09.2004

Sino Gold zukaufen

Der Aktionär

Die Experten des Anlegermagazins "Der Aktionär" empfehlen die Sino Gold-Aktie (ISIN AU000000SGX4/ WKN 164185) bei Schwäche zuzukaufen.

Das Unternehmen habe mit den Zahlen für das erste Halbjahr 2004 die Erwartungen erfüllt und das Ziel, ab dem Jahr 2006 jährlich 180.000 Unzen Gold zu produzieren, werde bekräftigt.

Dagegen habe China die Vereinfachung der Minengesetze bekannt gegeben, was bei Sino-Aktionären Ängste vor neuer Konkurrenz verursacht habe.

Die Experten von "Der Aktionär" sind der Meinung, dass die Sino Gold-Aktie bei Schwäche zugekauft werden soll, geben ein Kursziel von 3 Euro an und empfehlen, bei 0,95 Euro einen Stopp zu setzen.

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http://80.239.136.196/news/columns/view.m?news_id=948121

Öl - Hype ist vorbei - Mit Gold nun bis zu 30 % Gewinn sichern

14:28 01.09.04

Die Öl-Hype ist aus technischer Sicht beendet. Das Geld wird aus dem schwarzen Gold abgezogen und wandert zum Teil direkt in das glänzende Edelmetall.

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http://www.mineweb.net/fast_news/345005.htm

DRD extends sixty-day review at Blyvoor

By: Gareth Tredway

Posted: '01-SEP-04 17:03' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004

Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD), the JSE-listed gold producer, has extended its sixty-day review at its Blyvooruitzicht mine in Carletonville by two weeks, as negotiations still continue. The new end date is now September 13.

“We are still negotiating,” said Ilja Graulich, a spokesman at the company.

At its quarterly results presentation in August, Ian Murray, DRD’s chief executive, said that new management, including Michael Marriot, who has been appointed head of South African operations, would work out a way to restore Blyvoor to profits.

A sixty-day review is a statutory step the company must take, before it can legally retrench workers. Over the sixty days, different stakeholders in the mine negotiate means of restoring the mine to profitability.

The mine made a quarterly operating loss of $3.9 million and produced 10 percent less gold in the quarter to end-June.

The mine produced 51,087 ounces of gold in the June quarter, more than one third of DRD’s South African quarterly production. This was at a cash cost of $488/oz, almost $100 an ounce higher than the company’s received gold price of $395/oz.

Graulich says the extended negotiations had nothing to do with a gold price which has jumped back above R85,000/kg in the last few weeks, after dipping below R78,000/kg early in August.

Deon van der Mescht, who was in charge of SA operations, left the company a week before the results announcement, a matter about which Murray continually declined to comment despite continual questioning

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http://www.smh.com.au/text/art…921251.html?oneclick=true

ASX demands answers about Gwalia reserves

Date: September 1 2004

By James Chessell

The "serious deterioration" of Sons of Gwalia's gold reserves has attracted the attention of corporate regulators who have questioned the Perth mining group a day after it called in administrators with liabilities expected to reach almost $800 million.

An inquiry by the Australian Stock Exchange yesterday comes amid allegations Gwalia's previous management overstated gold reserves and on the same day WMC Resources chief Andrew Michelmore indicated he would be prepared to run the ruler over Gwalia's less problematic tantalum operations should they become available.

"There are clearly some matters that warrant inquiry with regard to disclosure and the ASX is examining this at the moment," an exchange spokesman said.

"There are two issues involved: namely what has changed from the previous situation and at what point did the company become aware of this, as clearly the ASX wants to ensure that the market was fully informed".

Gwalia called in administrators Ferrier Hodgson on Sunday when a group of creditor banks refused to agree on a standstill on debt payments after a review found it would not be able to produce enough gold to meet hedge commitments.

The review revealed reserves at Gwalia's Marvel Loch operation could not be economically mined, leaving the company short by an estimated 1 million ounces.

Earlier yesterday, Gwalia's administrator, Andrew Love of Ferrier Hodgson, said he would "not be surprised" if the company, which the market valued at almost $190 million before its shares were suspended, received a letter from the exchange.

It is understood the Australian Securities and Investment Commission is also monitoring the situation.

Gwalia chairman Neil Hamilton - part of a board and management change that took over from the company's founding Lalor brothers in April - suggested investors had a right to question previous management.

"People will want some answers," he said.

Gwalia's administrators are expected to attempt to sell the gold assets, leaving the company as a pure tantalum play that is expected to attract the interest of the likes of Iluka Resources.

Speaking after a lunch in Sydney yesterday, WMC's Mr Michelmore said he would be interested. "I think from what we've seen of the business they have a very good position in tantalum and it appears to be one of those long-life assets," he said.

Canadian mining house Teck Cominco said it would make a provision of $C52 million ($56.5 million) on its 9 per cent shareholding in the company.

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http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/040831/minerals_norilsk_gold_3.html

Reuters

Norilsk to inject $500 mln into gold unit

Tuesday August 31, 11:32 am ET

By Yelena Smirnova and Maria Golovnina

MOSCOW, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Russia's Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.RTS) will inject half a billion dollars into its gold business to help prepare for a battle for a huge gold mine in Siberia, a senior official said on Tuesday.

Norilsk is one of the contenders for rights to develop Sukhoi Log, Eurasia's biggest untapped gold deposit with more than 1,000 tonnes of gold in reserves. Officials have pledged to unveil tender terms in September after years of delays.

Yevgeny Ivanov, head of Norilsk gold unit Polyus, told Reuters the unit would raise $500 million by issuing new shares in a private placement to be taken up by Norilsk. He would not say how Norilsk planned to fund the high-profile transaction.

"If the Sukhoi Log tender is announced this year, we would take part, and this (Sukhoi Log) is one of the targets for our investment," he said in a telephone interview.

Almost a dozen domestic and foreign companies are expected to bid, including Canada's Barrick Gold (Toronto:ABX.TO - News) and Britain's Highland Gold Mining (London:HGM.L - News). Insiders say Norilsk, with its aggressive gold expansion policy, is the most likely winner.

Sukhoi's development costs are estimated at over $1 billion.

Norilsk said this month it had no immediate plans to raise funds on the capital market after receiving speculative-grade credit ratings from Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Services.

Ivanov said Polyus was also considering other expansion projects, including modernisation of existing operations.

Norilsk -- also the world's top nickel and palladium producer -- is Russia's biggest gold company. It owns 20 percent of the world's No. 4 gold company, Gold Fields Ltd. (GFIJ.J), after paying $1.16 billion for the interest in March.

Last year Norilsk produced about 40 tonnes of gold, and it hopes to gradually boost output through expansion and mining.

"We have many projects, including a very serious one in the Magadan region," Ivanov said, adding that investment into additional gold exploration at the huge Natalkinskoye mine would be at least $50 million.

"That's where part of the money (raised through the new share issue) would go," he said.

Preliminary studies at Natalkinskoye showed the deposit could have reserves of up to 1,500 tonnes of gold -- huge even compared with Sukhoi Log's reserves. Natalkinskoye ore has gold content of about 1.5 grams per tonne.

It requires, according to some estimates, total investment of up to $500 million.

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http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/sc…pl?/current/0831039n.html

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SEABRIDGE GOLD INC.

TSX VENTURE SYMBOL: SEA
AMEX SYMBOL: SA

AUGUST 31, 2004 - 10:08 ET

Seabridge Gold Secures $2.25 Million Flow-Through Financing