Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Eine weitere Möglichkeit, verhältnismässig einfach, und schnell einen Goldgegenstand auf seine Echtheit zu prüfen ist das Aufschneiden, um die innere Beschaffenheit des Metalls zu sehen, oder das Gold mit einer heissen Flamme zu erhitzen. Feuer hinterlässt niemals Spuren von Russ auf echtem Gold. Es gibt zusätzlich noch eine Qualitätsprüfung, bei der man das Gold an ungeschliffener Keramik reibt.

Echtes Gold lässt bei diesem Vorgang winzige Metallspähnchen zurück. Wenn man noch Schwefel- oder Salzsäure auf diese Fläche tröpfelt und das Metall seinen Glanz verliert oder gar seine Farbe verändert, ist das betreffende Stück mit Bestimmtheit eine Imitation.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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Press Release Source: Sterling Mining Company

Sterling Mining Expands Sunshine Exploration to Include Adjoining Metropolitan Property

Monday September 20, 9:25 am ET

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040920/205386_1.html

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Press Release Source: Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation

New Bolivian Tax Regulations to Benefit Coeur's Major San Bartolome Silver Project

Monday September 20, 8:30 am ET

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040920/sfm058_1.html

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http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1095690576.php

Gold Market Update

By: Clive Maund

09/20/04

The risk of a major terrorist attack between now and the US elections on 2nd November is considerable, as such an event would assure a victory for the Republicans by a considerable margin. Should this happen gold will blast through the resistance at $430 before you have time to scratch your ankle. Otherwise gold is waiting for the next decisive move by the dollar. The technical picture has improved since the last update with a successful test of the lower trendline of the gentle uptrend that started in May. The uptrend is gentle because it is occurring within a trading range bounded by the highs earlier in the year at $430.

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The 3-year chart reveals that the picture remains one of indecision with the price corralled between rising long-term trendline support and the strong resistance level towards $430. The dollar is now trading quietly in a narrow range within the confines of a symmetrical triangle formation, which, it is interesting to observe, it must break out of by the end of October / early November at the latest. This type of triangle can break either way. So we can expect to see a breakout by both the dollar and gold by, you guessed it, the time of the election or immediately after.

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Posted Monday, September 20 2004

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http://news.silverseek.com/CliveMaund/1095687647.php

Silver Market Update

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By: Clive Maund

09/20/04

The silver chart continues to look shaky and it is very important that the support at $6 holds. The indications are contradictory. On the one hand the violence of the declines that have occurred at intervals this year is bearish, indicating a nervous market populated by aggressive speculators. On the other hand silver is now down on a parabolic rising uptrend clearly visible on the 2-year chart, that should, in a dollar down and gold up scenario, project prices to much higher levels.

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Silver and silver stock investors have several tactical alternatives. The safest is to wait until the strong resistance at $7 is overcome before making any new commitments. Although this involves missing out on some profits, those that are in prospect are much more assured, as a move above $7 should lead to significantly greater gains and by then the dollar should have embarked on a substantial downtrend. Positions can be taken now, but should be done so with an awareness of the considerable risk of a downside break, and it would be prudent to close out positions on a silver break below $6 as this will involve a clear break of the parabolic uptrend. If another downside break from here does occur it is likely to be dramatic, as on past declines, and potential investors need to be aware of this. Like gold alot rests on the next significant move by the dollar, and there is also the "wild card" of a possible pre-election terrorist attack to consider.

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Posted 20 September, 2004

Web-Site: http://www.clivemaund.com
Contact Clive Maund - clive.maund@t-online.de

Auswirkungen nicht nur auf den Oel Preis "GARANTIERT"

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http://www.ftd.de/ub/in/1095597902798.html?nv=hpm

Aus der FTD vom 21.9.2004

Yukos fährt Ölexporte nach China drastisch herunter

Von Olaf Preuß, Hamburg, und Andrew Jack, Moskau

Der angeschlagene russische Ölkonzern Yukos will seine Exporte nach China von der kommenden Woche an bis zum Jahresende um insgesamt rund eine Million Tonnen reduzieren. Normalerweise liefert Yukos rund 400.000 Tonnen Öl im Monat an die staatliche chinesische Ölgesellschaft CNPC.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ftd.de/FtdImage/yukos_moskau,0.jpg]Die Yukos-Zentrale in Moskau (AP)

Der Ölpreis in New York und in London stieg daraufhin am Montag zeitweise deutlich. Yukos ist der zweitgrößte russische Ölkonzern und der größte Ölexporteur des Landes.

Yukos begründete den Schritt am Montag in Moskau damit, dass das Unternehmen das nötige Geld für den Eisenbahntransport des Öls nicht mehr aufbringen könne. Yukos steht seit rund 15 Monaten in einem schweren Konflikt mit der russischen Staatsführung. Wegen einer Steuernachzahlung von 3,6 Mrd. $ für das Jahr 2000 steht das Unternehmen kurz vor dem Bankrott. Zahlreiche Konten wurden von russischen Gerichtsvollziehern gesperrt. Für 2001 droht Yukos zudem eine Steuernachzahlung von rund 4,1 Mrd. $.

"Yukos und die Regierung sind so weit auseinander wie nie zuvor"

Beobachter halten die Kürzung der Exporte nach China für eine gezielte Provokation der russischen Regierung. Am Mittwoch soll in Moskau ein russisch-chinesisches Gipfeltreffen beginnen, an dem im Lauf der Woche auch der chinesische Ministerpräsident Wen Jiabao teilnimmt. Die russische Regierung hatte in den vergangenen Monaten wiederholt bekräftigt, der Konflikt mit Yukos werde die Ölexporte des Landes nicht beeinträchtigen. "Yukos und die Regierung sind so weit auseinander wie nie zuvor", sagte der Analyst Steven Dashewsky vom Moskauer Investmenthaus Aton.

"Das schafft noch mehr Verhärtung, die schwer beizulegen sein wird."

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ftd.de/FtdImage/01yukos.jpg]Der frühere Yukos-Chef Michail Chodorkowskij sitzt seit Oktober im Gefängnis
(AP)

Der frühere Yukos-Chef Michail Chodorkowskij sitzt seit Ende Oktober 2003 in Haft. Ihm wird in Moskau der Prozess wegen Steuerhinterziehung und Betrugs Anfang der 90er Jahre gemacht. Chodorkowskij, zugleich Yukos-Großaktionär, hatte gegen Staatspräsident Wladimir Putin opponiert, der die Macht der so genannten "Oligarchen" in den vergangenen Jahren stark einschränkte.

Der Konflikt schlägt seit Monaten auf die Ölmärkte durch, weil die Förderkapazitäten weltweit nahezu ausgelastet sind. Vor allem China verzeichnet derzeit wegen seiner stark wachsenden Wirtschaft einen hohen Öl-Importbedarf. Andere russische Konzerne könnten einen Lieferausfall von Yukos mangels Infrastruktur kurzfristig nicht ausgleichen.

© 2004 Financial Times Deutschland , © Illustration: AP

AFC

Genau so ist es!

Seit Sommer 1999 empfehle ich gemeinsam mit einigen anderen Gold Bugs den Kauf von physischem Gold, und Aktien von ungehegten Gold Minen als Langzeitanlage. Seit 2001 den Kauf von phyischem Silber.

Der Kauf von physischem Gold und Silber bietet nicht nur grosse Chancen auf Wertsteigerung, schützt vor Wertverlust, durch Inflation, oder Rezession, sondern bietet auch die reale Möglichkeit Veränderungen in unserem Fiat Money System, zum Nutzen vieler, und zum Nachteil einiger weniger herbeizuführen.

Die meisten Leute in den westlichen Länder können, oder wollen es einfach nicht erkennen, begnügen sich mit Papiergeld, oder kaufen weiter nur Papier Gold, Silber, und/oder noch risikoreicher, Derivate aufs Gold, und Silber. Vielfach leider sogar ausschliesslich.

Zum Glück sind wenigstens die Asiaten in Sachen Gold und Silber bedeutend intelligenter!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

September 20 - Gold $405 down 60 cents – Silver $6.23 unchanged

The Mess In Iraq Will Eventually Lead To Much Higher Gold Prices

Zitat

"The sense of security more frequently springs from habit than from conviction, and for this reason it often subsists after such a change in the conditions as might have been expected to suggest alarm. The lapse of time during which a given event has not happened is, in this logic of habit, constantly alleged as a reason why the event should never happen, even when the lapse of time is precisely the added condition which makes the event imminent." George Eliot, in her novel Silas Marner

GO GATA!

The big picture news on Iraq is awful. It was the feature of all the weekend TV talk shows with the bottom line one on focusing an all around deterioration. Even Republicans are out there asking President Bush to level with the American public and to listen to his own intelligence service. Seems he will have none of it with the election coming up. Spin is what counts, not truth.

What was most disturbing were the reports of a planned offensive in Falluja, a rebel stronghold, late in the year – after the Presidential election of course. A highly regarded US military man seem particularly chagrined the US would telegraph such a move and if they were going to move before the planned January elections in Iraq, they should do so immediately. Unfortunately, politics trumps military considerations and the lives of the US soldiers.

Why my lead on Iraq? Because it is becoming transparently clear to almost everyone that Iraq is a complete blunder, one based on fictional pretenses in the first place. The pundits are now saying it will take 4 to 20 years to bring Democracy to Iraq. Any way you slice what is to come, it means horrendous loss of life, many thousands more US soldiers wounded, and blow after blow to US budget deficits and the US taxpayer, as we alone have to bear the financial cost of this nightmare. There is no way the Iraq mess cannot have a profoundly negative effect on the US dollar and facilitate gold investing in the months and years to come, as Iraq gradually and predictably disintegrates into further chaos.

Gold was dull as dishwater today. It came in lower following the lead of a stronger dollar and couldn’t muster any oomph to the upside. Lockdown/prop-up remains the name of the game in the US financial markets.

The gold open interest rose 1600 contracts to 252,185.

Silver was a real snoozer also. At least it managed to go positive on the day for a few moments. The silver open interest gained 360 contracts to 82,295.

Had some interest to update the Café Sentiment Indicator. Café paying memberships has picked up. However, hits on the site are way down and new trials are as low as they have even been. Would have to put the indicator at a 3, where it has been plus or minus for some time. The fact that the indicator has been so feeble for so long and interest in the gold sector (junior and exploration shares especially) remains so abysmal, suggests a move of some significant magnitude is coming. Quiet before the storm sort of thing. The gold fundamentals suggest this coming move will be one which takes the gold price sharply higher. Silver too.

The dollar fell somewhat off its early highs, closing at 89.08, plus .08. The euro came way off its lows of 121.17, finishing at 121.69, down .05.

Volatile crude oil closed on its highs at $46.35 per barrel.

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http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

Is China a likely buyer?

Monday, September 20, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.09, PM $7.81, with world gold at $405 20 and $403.60. Adequate, and lavish, for legal imports. The rupee was comparatively volatile today.

Shanghai gold stood at appreciable discounts (c.90c to world gold). The Gulf, based on premiums derived from Standard London’s frequently updated Dubai prices, was a steady buyer. China’s role in gold is quite dubious, as it is in world trade generally. This is discussed below.

Tokyo was closed. (NY on Friday traded 40,043 contacts. Open interest was down 1,600 contracts to 250,585.)

According to Rhona O’Connell publishing on thebulliondesk.com

Zitat

"Gold moved independently from the currencies last week, outperforming both the dollar and the euro and looks to be starting a build-up to challenge the recent highs at $415/ounce. Sustained strength in the physical market is underpinning prices…"

Those closer to the short- term action were less enthused. Standard London noted gloomily

Zitat

"Precious Metals ended mixed on Friday after a day of thin but volatile trading activity… any rallies in both Asia and London were capped at $405."

The Australian observer, The Privateer’s observations have cogency

Zitat

"almost everything on the financial markets has been "on hold" since the end of August and the end of the Republican Party's convention…. With a couple of short-lived deviations outside the "zone", Gold has been trading in a $US 10 range between $US 400 and $US 410 for over a month. There is absolutely no doubt that it will stay in this range if the financial "powers that be" can possibly keep it there. The attitude is that if they can't be scared out of Gold, we'll bore them to death. We'll see if "they" can do it."

Bridgewater Associates today publishes a series of charts, demonstrating that America’s export competitiveness has continued to collapse, primarily because of intensified pressure from China.

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This competitiveness has persisted because China has effectively enjoyed all the benefits of the $US dollar weakness in recent years, by maintaining a fixed exchange rate. At the same time, partly because the 8.28 relationship is too low, floods of capital investment are broadening and deepening the Chinese economy, intensifying the competitive stress.

In the days of the gold standard, of course, these trade and capital flows would have generated offsetting monetary conditions within China. At other times, the Chinese currency would have been forced to appreciate, or tariff policies would have curtailed this trend.

At present, the China/Washington relationship is such that none of these offsets are in operation. Until they are, speculation about the prospects of Chinese FX reserve gold buying, as by JP Morgan today , are fatuous. The Chinese authorities have no reason to rock this boat. Significantly, there has been no explanation offered as to how, or why, China has emerged as an important gold exporter in the last year or two.

JB

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http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULTATION WATCH

As has been the case for what seems like forever, the DOW bent, but did not break hard, dropping 80 to 10,205. The DOG fell 2 to 1908.

Greenspan and the Fed are caught in a bind tomorrow about raising the Fed Funds rate. They have made their mark lately by trumpeting their new modus operandi of leading and guiding the markets as what to expect. Since they have advertised the US economy is on the upswing, they must raise rates to save face. Not that it really matters as they already way behind the real inflation 8-ball. However, the economy was teetering before the recent three hurricanes took its toll across the country. This is what the bond market action is telling us. The December 30-yr, up 25/32, closed in new high ground for the move:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/C4

Not to raise rates now, after their self-proclaimed bombast at giving guidance and assisting Wall Street, could really shake up the markets. Will be surprised if they don’t come up with some cautionary comments based on all the negative economic news over the past months.

Warning after warning is surfacing from mainstream America. Some examples:

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell after Colgate- Palmolive Co., the world's largest toothpaste producer, reduced its profit forecast and PMC-Sierra Inc., which makes semiconductors for telecommunications equipment, cut its sales prediction.

–END-

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Unilever, the maker of Lipton tea and Magnum ice cream bars, cut its annual profit forecast as sales of the company's main brands decline for a second straight quarter. The shares dropped to the lowest in almost four years.
Per-share profit will rise less than 5 percent compared with a previous forecast for at least 10 percent after cool weather in Western Europe damped demand for ice cream and cold drinks, Finance Director Rudy Markham told a conference call. Profit this quarter may fall for the first time in more than two years, he said. –END-

One economic number after another continues to disappoint:

13:00 NAHB housing market index 68 in September vs consensus 70
The August reading was unrevised at 71.
* * * * *
Back at the ranch, oil continues to stay in the headlines and remain at prices thought intolerable only a year ago.
Pipeline raids take toll in Iraq

Cuts in oil output hurting economy

T. Christian Miller
Los Angeles Times
Sept. 18, 2004 12:00 AM

BAGHDAD - The sharp rise in attacks on Iraq's oil pipelines in recent weeks has substantially impaired the country's production, dealing a blow to the economy and threatening the struggling reconstruction effort, U.S. and Iraqi officials say.

Insurgents are bombing pipelines and other parts of Iraq's oil infrastructure almost daily, another sign that security is deteriorating beyond the control of U.S. military and Iraqi security forces.

U.S. and Iraqi officials said the strikes had reduced average daily oil production by nearly 100,000 barrels, resulting in losses of as much as $1 billion this year.

"The attacks are continuing, and they impose a big penalty (on oil production)," said a U.S. official involved in the reconstruction effort. "The country has got to get rid of this security problem. It's pervasive, and they have to get over it."

-END-

Monday, September 20, 2004. Page 1.

Yukos Slashes Exports to China

Yukos has decided to halt two-thirds of its oil exports to China, a company representative said Sunday, as the company grapples with a multibillion dollar tax claim that management says could push it into bankruptcy.

The moves come as Yukos raises the stakes in its yearlong legal battle with the authorities.

By throttling exports to China, a key export market, the company could tarnish Russia's reputation as a reliable oil supplier.

Last week Yukos management decided to halt shipment of 100,000 barrels per day to China National Petroleum Corp. because of financial difficulties in paying transportation costs for October, said a company representative, speaking on the condition of anonymity. Deliveries of some 50,000 bpd will continue to Sinopec Corp. –END-

This is going the wrong way and its our main ally in Iraq:

Britain to cut troop levels in Iraq

Jason Burke, chief reporter
Sunday September 19, 2004
The Observer

The British Army is to start pulling troops out of Iraq next month despite the deteriorating security situation in much of the country, The Observer has learnt.

The main British combat force in Iraq, about 5,000-strong, will be reduced by around a third by the end of October during a routine rotation of units. –END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Federal Reserve added $8.25 Billion in temps today, September 20th 2004, an action that kept the repo pool very high At $60.364 Billion. With so many adds lately I made a posting date error on Friday that a watchful reader corrected for me. I appreciate this diligence as the Fed adds repos at different times during the day and it is easy to misplace an expiration.

The DOW is weak and unresponsive while crude oil shot up to $46.16 early this morning on the access market. Natural gas is back over $5, doubtless as a result of the Hurricane damage. Several Gulf of Mexico large drilling platforms were completely blown away either sunk or other wise unaccounted for. It will take many months to restore the platforms and their energy output. Likewise for electricity in Pensacola Beach, Florida. "80 years of infrastructure was destroyed in eight hours" was the quote from the local power company spokesperson. Of 1527 miles of high tension transmission lines only 900 remain. Imagine going without electricity for at least four months.

Florida's economy has been dealt a crushing blow. I am close to high ranking officials at Orlando's Universal Studios and they are simply glum over the damaging effects of the hurricanes, fuel prices and consumer spending retrenchment, all of which simultaneously hit hard.

Argentina...Still on a gold buying run

July's IMF data shows that President Nester Kirchner oddly, still likes gold. His totals are now up to 52.5 tonnes or 1.72 million fine troy ounces. There has also been a big shake up at the Central Bank with a complete new upper staff being ushered in and a new bank president. The main bondholders, who have taken huge losses at the Central Bank are seemingly in charge now and getting their way with personnel changes.

Bond market Intervention?

The question of whether the Federal Reserve intervenes in the long-term bond market is definitively answered in the Federal Reserve's own September 2004 Bernanke paper excerpted below. In it he describes (1) Fed propaganda as a formal tool to control expectations (2) increasing the size of the Fed's balance sheet, doubtless through increasing repurchase agreements and (3) direct Fed purchases of long-tern bonds. Folks, the argument that the Fed isn't doing in the market what Bernanke says here they ARE doing is settled once and for all. The Fed rigs the long-term bond market and they are making
no bones about it.

Catching on

Your job will be to see how long it takes the numerous TA "specialists" to discover this Fed document and all the other evidence of government intervention littering the financial landscape. Saville? Prechter? Will they ever acknowledge its reality?...The fact that government intervention is right out in the open? After all, the call for government to "Buy Bonds" was made by Clinton in 1993. It's not like it's been a secret. The use of Japan as a paper source to "Buy" US treasuries has been clear for years. Japan simply adds more and more pieces of colored paper to accomplish the deed, inflating their total currency. And Wall Street marvels at our low interest rates while ignoring the skyrocketing deficit and burgeoning mountain of US and household debt. Perhaps Japan has scales back but the US is easily taking up the slack.

What it means

What this important paper means to us is simple: the Fed controls the bond market and they are out in the open with their control, daring anyone to short bonds. They do the same in the precious metals markets but they can't print metal as easily as paper...nor can the Fed produce oil, even with an army on the ME oil fields.

One might ask: Isn't Fed intervention a good thing? Doesn't everybody benefit by strong US Treasury bonds? Today's answer to this ageless question is the same as it was in the Weimar Republic. Can't we just print Reich Marks to pay our bills?

The reason government market intervention is bad is because it led then to raging inflation just as it has today. It led then to war, just as it has now.

Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound:
An Empirical Assessment
Ben S. Bernanke, Vincent R. Reinhart, and Brian P. Sack
2004-48 (September 9th 2004)

From the "Non Technical Summary" My [comments] are bracketed :

"In this paper, we apply the tools of modern empirical finance to the recent experiences of the United States and Japan to provide evidence on the potential effectiveness of various nonstandard policies. Following Bernanke and Reinhart (2004), we group these policy alternatives into three classes:

using communications policies [Wall Street propaganda] to shape public expectations about the future course of interest rates; (2) increasing the size of the central bank¹s balance sheet [massive repo adds], or ³quantitative easing²; and (3) changing the composition of the central bank¹s balance sheet through, for example, the targeted purchases of long-term bonds [Smashing anyone who dares to short bonds, or purchase GOLD by extension] as a means of reducing the long-term interest rate. We describe how these policies might work and discuss relevant existing evidence.
[...]

We also find evidence supporting the view that asset purchases in large volume by a central bank would be able to affect the price or yield of the targeted asset. Since the Federal Reserve has not engaged in such purchases in the past fifty years, our evidence for the United States is necessarily indirect. Three recent episodes, however, provide important insights. In each, financial market participants received information that led them to expect large changes in the relative supplies of Treasury securities. These episodes include (1) the Treasury¹s announcements of ³debt buybacks² that followed the emergence of budget surpluses in the late 1990s; (2) the massive foreign official purchases of U.S. Treasury securities over the past two years; and (3) the apparent belief among market participants in 2003 that the Federal Reserve was actively considering targeted purchases of Treasury securities as an anti-deflationary measure. Event-study analyses of these episodes, as well as the comparison of actual Treasury yields during these periods to our estimated benchmark for the term structure, suggest that large changes in the relative supplies of securities may have economically significant effects on their yields."END

While this paper is an academic exercise it does reveal that the Fed is conducting active intervention operations to hold down interest rates, on of which is located in the media.

The deteriorating integrity of meaningful financial news is a major clue of impending trouble. News has turned into "Communications Policy"...Being "On Message". The best medicine against this rising tide of primary dealer financial propaganda is to stop reading it and start thinking for yourself.

Hyperinflation around the corner

The only outcome of this delusional interventional thinking is hyperinflation. Whether it simultaneously involves deflation is an academic question. That kind of "deflation" talk is simply a paper-printing government justification for more inflation. Here, Saville has it RIGHT when he sees through the Fed's obfuscation tactics and fingers hyperinflation.

Transferring wealth from one's depreciating paper assets into real assets is an important philosophical step to take. There is simply no outcome where today's dollars will survive intact.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Russia

As I have warned many times in my commentaries, Russia will be the locus of the next significant geopolitical event and that event WILL effect the Gold War in a negative way for the Federal Reserve and any Western Central Banks who continue to sell their vault gold in futile efforts to hide the debauchery of their currencies. There is NO substitute to owning physical metal given the rising hyperinflationary risks. Do not be greedy, seeking extra leverage. Here is an insightful review of several Russian scenarios:

Red to Brown--MOSCOW DISPATCH
Red to Brown by Masha Gessen Post date 09.16.04
http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml%3Fi...ssen092704
Countries, like people, do not cope well with fear. But countries, unlike people, cannot run away when they are frightened. So they act like people in other ways. They reach for totems they hope will protect them, such as the flag; they become withdrawn, barricading themselves with visas and security checks; they get aggressive; often, they panic. Frightened countries can be extremely dangerous to themselves and to others. Russia right now is a frightened country embarking on steps that gravely threaten its own people and, most likely, the people of other countries.

To be blunt, Russia is about to turn itself into a dictatorship. Using as a pretext the fear that has gripped his country, President Vladimir Putin has announced sweeping political reforms that will eliminate all direct elections except those for president, who, through a convoluted process, will effectively appoint members of parliament. With the state in control of all broadcast media and increasingly dominating print media, the presidential election will also be orchestrated by the Kremlin. Still, as the new political system takes shape, the person at the helm--the actual dictator--might not be Putin. The new leader could actually be a fascist head of an aggressive, nationalistic, war-mongering Russia. END
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

IF there is a true East/West split coming, Russia likely will quietly acquire more and more gold, transferring its US FOREX surplus paper into metal. Others will catch on and we see China acquiring oil AND opening its gold markets.

Russia has evidence to Maskhadov, Basayev part in Beslan

17.09.2004, 22.27
http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/l…?NewsID=1259602&PageNum=0

MOSCOW, September 17 (Itar-Tass) -- The Russian Prosecutor General¹s Office has evidence that Aslan Maskhadov and Shamil Basayev were involved in the terrorist act in Beslan on September 1-3.
³The role of this inhuman being [Basayev] and the so-called president [Maskhadov] has been proven,² Deputy Prosecutor General Vladimir Kolesnikov said on the NTV channel on Friday.
³I want very much that person to be put to justice instead of being killed in a special operation,² he said. END
++++++++++++++++++++

A true deterioration in East-West relations may begin within a week or so if Putin carries out his retaliatory terrorist base attacks INSIDE Georgia, now a US-backed regime, apparently bent on destabilizing Russia. Today's Itar-Tass news service reports large-scale military training exercises involving 20,000 troupes. If and when the Russia/Georgia conflict escalates, the Gold War will too and we may get an early hint of this by watching Russia's foreign currency holdings posted at the Russian Central bank and reported on InterFAX News Agency outlets. Their "Gold and foreign currency" total has been rising a bit of late, now at $90 Billion Ballooning from fresh injections of oil revenue). We cannot determine if any of this FOREX rise is gold but we can watch other sovereign actions such as the huge crackdown on illegal migrants being conducted today in Moscow. Other things are simmering too...

It was interesting to watch US "Communications Policy" regarding Chechnya's terrorist Commander Shamil Basayev at work Saturday evening on the NBC Nightly News. The report left OUT the two most important facts regarding this story as it introduced the issue for the first time to NBC viewers. NBC omitted (1) the fact the the US has given asylum to Basayev's Chechen political colleague, Maskhadov (Tony Blair has done the same for Basayev's direct envoy) and that (2) Chechnya has copious oil deposits as it sits atop the pipeline transfer routes from Caspian petroleum reserves). Basayev has formally admitted to the Beslan atrocity.

When news is blatantly warped, something BIG is up.

Mike

More from Mike:

Hi Bill:

A careful look at the DIVG reveals a slightly rising tide and a new dip to its all-important MCDI component. It seems that my suggestion of a cyclic oscillation for BOTH the PM Fix and the MCDI is happening with last week being a minimum for the PM Fix pma and a maximum for the MCDI pma. How long will it last? I have a small inkling that it won't last too long but this is only a guess.

My forward metrics are still pointing to Oct 4th and 5th (The anniversary meeting of the WA) and to another important proprietary milepost on that date. As I have said, I don't like coincidences and will continue to observe this convergence closely. If it continues into next week, I'll suggest a step back to be executed on Friday Oct 1rst.

IF this possible ambush occurs it may involve a surprise development perhaps regarding Italy. Stay tuned. Until then you should feel safe in your gold investment plans but as a trader, you should be prepared to be faster than the Fed.
Mike

Gold remains in the background – par for the course:

Bill,

I just did a check of Forbes, Business Week, Fortune Magazine, Barron’s Magazine, Wall Street Journal and searched for "gold". No articles analyzing gold as an investment vehicle. Given the current economic climate, this is sad, but obvious.

Now look at the incredible returns which gold has provided over the past 5 years and the comparative silence which we have witnessed over the years becomes even more pathetic. Even though the 1 year results have been not-stellar, neither has the stock market - and any economist knows that this asset class is set to reignite again. Hell the worst performing fund in this class has only lost 6.7% this year. Unbelievable.

Cheers,
Dave.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULTATION WATCH

Goldman Sach’s gold analysts were bearish all the way up from $250 to $400. It is inconceivable the great Goldman Sachs could have been so wrong for so long without having an agenda. Have they ever performed THIS poorly in an other sector for that extended period of time? Is this some sort of mystifying change of heart? Can’t say as they do not mention gold, just metals. Guess they are still not allowed to hype gold until word comes down from Gold Cartel headquarters:

LONDON (Reuters) - Global stock markets are set to remain flat into next year or beyond, but commodities such as metals and energy may prove a better bet for investors, investment bank Goldman Sachs says.

Typically after a bear market, shares revive strongly for a year and then stay flat in a narrow range for up to a year and a half before moving into a bumpier phase, though with indexes progressing little overall, said Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs' head of portfolio strategy in Europe.

The first phase ended with about 40 percent gains by early this year, and the second phase will continue into next year before the third, more volatile period, Oppenheimer forecast in a briefing to journalists.

"The best times to be in equities is when you get rapid acceleration in leading indicators and that was true for 2003, but now our leading indicators have peaked," Oppenheimer said.

"Profit growth is likely to surprise on the downside next year," Oppenheimer said.

Companies were likely to return more cash to investors in the form of share buy-backs or dividend increases, rather than invest in capital for the future.

-END-

The gold bears are out there growling in full force. Regard:

Australian Financial Review

Gold price to fall to $US366 in 2005

Sep 20 12:41

The spot price of gold will average $US366 a troy ounce next year, down from a forecast of $US396/oz for this year, Australia's chief commodity forecaster said on Monday.

Last year, spot gold averaged $US364 and in the first eight months of this year it averaged $US400. Today it was quoted at $US405.25 at 1033 AEST.

Downward pressure on the gold price from a stronger US dollar, supported by higher interest rates, would more than offset the positive impact of lower mine production, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said in a quarterly outlook statement.

Continued weakness of the US dollar had been a major contributor to the higher price of gold this year, with the dollar depreciating 16 per cent against the euro over the past 18 months, it said.

Higher returns from other investment opportunities driven by continued strong economic growth were likely to reduce the attractiveness of holding and investing in gold, it said.

Gold's price also had been supported by uncertainty in the Middle Eat, high oil prices and fears of terrorist activity, it said.

Abare said it expected producer dehedging to continue in 2004 and into 2005 in line with major producers' commitments to shareholders.

The rate of dehedging is expected to decline in the latter part of 2005 as the world gold price was forecast to fall and interest rates could increase, it said…

- END-

China’s central bank the gold wildcard

9/20 PERTH (Mineweb.com) -- Leading precious metals analysts have tipped a relatively subdued gold price for at least the next couple of years.

JP Morgan analysts Jon Bergtheil, Steve Shepherd and John Bridges say the average gold price is unlikely to break out of the late US$300s range in calendar 2005 and 2006. But the trio do see the downside as quite well underpinned and therefore plenty of upside potential in their estimates, especially if China should surprise.

Bergtheil, Shepherd and Bridges believe it was "highly improbable" the Chinese Central Bank would significantly bump up its gold holdings quickly and as a result have a major influence on the gold price, due to Asia’s attachment to the US dollar, while per-capita jewellery consumption would probably not experience more than moderate gains in the near-term.

Zitat

They feel the onset of strong Chinese demand has been delayed by the perhaps slower than expected reaction of the Chinese gold market to liberalisation and therefore have not factored in substantial demand growth and central bank purchases into their gold price projections, though central bank buying remains the wildcard that "could deliver a really significant boost to the gold price"

.

Despite the "helpful" widely predicted falling future global mine supply profile, "given that we expect the assistance that gold received from the dollar in the past 18 months to disappear, we have incorporated a relatively modest forecast for gold in 2005 of US$385 per ounce, followed by $390/oz in 2006", suggested Bergtheil, Shepherd and Bridges, who were a bit more optimistic for 2007 with a forecast average of $410/oz, "as declining production and more robust Chinese demand begin to make their impact felt". …

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/348355.htm

-END-

This is the mainstream gold world talking here. If they are right, you can kiss your gold investments goodbye for years to come. Costs, such as energy, are escalating on a quarterly basis. It is not very profitable for many mines to operate at $400 gold any more. It is the equivalent to operating at $325 gold years ago. A couple of years from now it is going to require higher gold prices than the $400 level, and if the price of oil soars, MUCH higher ones.

While I believe gold and silver will take off in the months to come, I will be proved wrong if The Gold Cartel decides to unload hundreds of more tonnes of gold to stop a price rise at all cost. With a deficit of 1500+ tonnes per year, they must come up with over 100 tonnes per month to do the dirty.

What blows my mind is the debate about where the price of gold will go would become mute if the gold world would respond to The Sprott Special Report and to GATA’s claims. The Draculan-type Gold Cartel cannot stand the light of day or the truth to be told. If the investment world were to comprehend that half the central bank gold in the world was irretrievable gone without the price rising hundreds of dollars per ounce, the gold price would go nuts to the upside. All that has to be done is for the gold establishment world, gold companies and financial market press to examine the GATA/Sprott claims in serious detail. Yet, they won’t do it! More on this when I give my presentation in Toronto on October 4th. For gold companies not to run with this issue, the most important issue to their shareholders is inexcusable.

Responses such as this one are unfathomable:

Dear Marilyn,

Most web site inquiries end up in my email. I am manager of investor relations for Queenstake and have been in the gold mining business for more than 40 years. We are mindful of GATA’s efforts relative to its claim that the gold price is contrived and indeed are aware of John Embry and Sprott Asset Management who is our largest shareholder. It may be short sighted, but Queenstake is concerned only with rewarding its shareholders by producing the greatest amount of gold that it can at the lowest possible cost. Staying focused and taking care of our shareholders is the most important thing we can do.

Best regards,
John

Rewarding shareholders? How, if The Gold Cartel is allowed to continue to suppress the price of gold, or take it down? Who cares if you develop gold reserves, spend a fortune to mine them and then lose money for your shareholders in the process because it is too expensive to dig the gold out of the ground?

The response to the Sprott Report by the gold industry is beyond pathetic. It is irresponsible and one of gross negligence!

From Richard Russell’s comments:

Richard, I have never bothered to contact you before because I have always felt you must be inundated with correspondence. However, current happenings in the market are almost to much for me to bear. I have been in the investment business for over 41 years and have been reading your work faithfully for over 30 years. I would dare say that you would encounter very few people who admire your efforts more than I do.

Anybody following your advice in the past 30 years would have made a great deal of money but more importantly they would have kept it. As a bit of history, I was born in Washington D.C. in 1941 with an American father and a Canadian mother and when their marriage failed my mother retreated to Canada with my brother and I in 1949 and I have made my life and career in Canada but, having said that, there has been no greater supporter of all things American than yours truly for virtually all of my life.

However, something has gone horribly awry in the USA in recent years. Financially, geopolitically and morally the country has lost its compass. Which brings me to my subject of this e-mail, today's markets. It is my firm belief, as you probably already know, that today's markets are severely manipulated. I have tried to demonstrate in a recent report the extent of the manipulation in the precious metals markets but I don't for one minute believe that it is confined to the precious metals markets. I completely agree with your view that manipulation can't ultimately succeed but in the short term it can lead to considerable distortion.

Thus, I believe that you may try to read too much into what the markets are apparently saying in the short term with respect to deflation, inflation etc. Nobody knows how this is going to come out but in a world operating totally with a fiat currency system my suspicion is that a hyper-inflationary depression awaits us. Thanks for listening to the rambling thoughts of an aging investor and keep up your fabulous work until you are at least 100.

Russell Note -- The writer, the famed John Embry, is the investment manager to the Sprott Canadian Equity Fund, Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals Fund the Sprott Hedge Fund L.P., the Sprott Hedge Fund L.P. ll, the Sprott Bull/Bear RSP Fund, Sprott Energy Fund and the Sprott Hedge Fund L.P.

-END-

The gold shares continue their short-term journey to nowhere. The XAU gained .82 and the HUI rose 1.20 to 206.17.

The gold fundamentals and technicals are superb. They manage little in a managed market. I keep expecting The Gold Cartel to be hit hard with the unexpected forcing them to sound a retreat for the time being. Hasn’t happened yet. Still, we stay the course.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Some feedback on Groundhog Day:

Bill,

You really got me this past Friday! My last act of my working day is to get your email alerting me that today’s report at the James Joyce table is in. The email alerts me I can print out the James Joyce table, take it go to the gym and read it while staying in shape on my favorite cardiovascular machine.

Friday’s email subject was: "MIDAS - Do You Know What Kind Of Day It Was?" My mind started to race. "Did Bill get news from the ‘Stalker?’" Is there news out of London? Did John Embry come up with some great insights? "I can’t wait, what is it? I had just purchased a couple of more futures contract that day. My gold and silver stocks are in place, my gold coin supply is safely stored away; I am ready for the real game to begin.

The joke was on me! The picture of the Ground Hog said it all. "The real news is: There is no news!" I had to admit it was one of those times I was laughing both at your cleverness and my silliness. Like I said: You really got me this past Friday!

There was so much truth to your story headline. If I put together your Friday title, with the email from Garic Moran of Atlanta GA, the 9/9/4 Midas article by Dan Norcini "The Synthetic Short Dollar Theory weighed in the Balance." at the Toulouse-Lautrec Table, and some of James Turks recent observations with the actual movie Ground Hog day I come up with this:

Let’s go to the movie for a moment. Fade in… Bill Murray the central character of the Movie is standing across the street from a Brinks truck. Bill says to himself:

"Cue the wind, cue the truck." We hear the wind; the truck goes by, Bill Murray steps out in the middle of the street without even looking because he is completely confident that there will be no other traffic after the truck. After all by this time he has been through this scene 99 times. Continuing with the scene he knows that a cute girl who came out from the diner across the street will spill some quarters and that the guards will bend over to help her pick up the money. Moreover, Bill knows that while the guards are distracted by picking up the money, he will be able to walk up to the truck and pick up a sack of money and walk away with it. Bill pulls it off so flawlessly that one of the guards kind of looks around, and wonders to himself if there should not be another bag of money in the back of the truck. But obviously it could not have vanished into thin air, so the guard quickly concludes that he must not have moved a bag to the back.

Of course, what makes it so easy for Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, is that he has perfect knowledge. Bill has lived this scene a hundred times. Like Bill Murray’s character in Groundhog Day, the Cabal has perfect knowledge. However, like Garic Moran, and Dan Norcini have implied, we also have some fairly good knowledge, if not perfect.

Yes the Cabal knows how extended the gold futures traders are and when they are going to take the price of gold down.

But…We know gold is under valued.

Coming full circle, I guess that is why I had to laugh at myself with your title setup "Do You Know What Kind Of Day It Was?" It made me realize something a different movie, War Games, pointed out. Quick movie synopsis: A young computer whiz accidentally finds a back door into a military super computer that controls a nuclear arsenal. The computer, challenges this young hacker to a war game between America and Russia. The hacker thinks it is a game. The computer is playing for real. This young hacker innocently starts World War III and they can’t get it to stop. They call out all the best military strategist and computer minds in an attempt to win the game. In the end they somehow realize that the computer is smarter than they are and that the right question to ask the computer to forestall a catastrophe is "How do we win this thing?" The computer comes back with the simple answer: "The only way to win is to not play."

I think if that same computer were asked how to trade gold futures it would say: "Treat your contracts as originally intended, they are a contract to take delivery of 100 ounces of gold in the future. Own only the amount you are willing to hang onto right down to 200 dollars per ounce." On second thought, that is what I would say. The computer would probably say:

"The only way to win is to not play."

Greg

Die hiesige tödliche Hühner Grippe mutiert anscheinen bereits mit einem tödlichen Grippe Virus!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/images/mast_6.gif]

http://www.nationmultimedia.co…eme=A&usrsess=1&id=121188

FLU OUTBREAK WARNING: Government urged to stock up on vaccine

Published on Sep 21, 2004

The Medical Sciences Department yesterday called on the government to stock 500,000 doses of influenza vaccine in case of a virulent outbreak, a proposal immediately rejected by the caretaker permanent secretary for Public Health.

Dr Somsong Rakpao, directorgeneral of the Public Health Ministry’s Medical Sciences Department, said he was worried there could soon be an outbreak of a virulent strain of human influenza, H3N2.

He said his department had detected the H3N2 strain in 40 per cent of suspected human birdflu cases since December, indicating that an outbreak may be imminent.

Somsong said the country had only about 70,000 doses of vaccine against H3N2 influenza virus in stock, which was inadequate if an outbreak occurred.

He said the country needed about 500,000 doses to protect public health officials, children and senior citizens in case of an outbreak. He added that if the country bought 500,000 doses, the supplier would automatically stock 1.5 million doses as backup.

The directorgeneral said it would take about six months to make the vaccine, meaning the country would not be able to react in time if it waited for an outbreak to occur first.

He said the H3N2 influenza virus was as virulent and deadly as Sars and bird flu, especially in children and older people.

Somsong said the World Health Organisation had recently held a meeting of vaccine manufacturers and warned that a worldwide outbreak of H3N2 virus could occur within two years.

“Some people have died of the influenza virus in the United States and China,”Somsong said.

But the threat of the H3N2 strain was dismissed by Dr Jaral Trinwutthipong, directorgeneral of the Disease Control Department and caretaker permanent secretary for Public Health.

He said H3N2 in Thailand would not be as virulent as in coldweather countries such as those in Europe.

“The H3N2 strain is normally found among Thais and the virus will not be virulent enough to require vaccination,” Jaral said.

“People just need to eat well and get enough rest and don’t need any vaccine against the virus,” Jaral said.

He said the country’s vaccine stock was for Muslims who are leaving the country on pilgrimages to Mecca to comply with Saudi Arabia’s immigration rules.

© Nation Multimedia Group
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Tel 66-2-325-5555, 66-2-317-0420 and 66-2-316-5900 ; Fax 66-2-317-2071

osti99

Prädikat:

Sehr empfehlenswert!!!!!!

yoyo

Argumente, und Belege warum die Gold Bullion Banken an tiefen Goldpreisen interessiert sind, waren schon unzählige Male in diesem Thread zu lesen. Das meiste davon jedoch leider nur in englischer Sprache, weil in Deutsch, nur sehr wenig zu diesem Thema geschrieben wird. Belege, Argumente, und Gerüchte, warum Gold Bullion Banken wie die Deutsche Bank, UBS, JPM, GS, ABNAmro, Credit Suiss, etc. aus eigenem Interesse, nicht an höheren Gold Preisen interessiert sind, gibt es in Hülle und Fülle.

Wenn ich beim Thema Gold von Banken spreche, meine ich in erster Linie die Primery Dealer Banken der FED, und die anderen Gold Bullion Banken an.

Ich kann mich nicht daran erinnern irgendwann mal die Behauptung aufgestellt zu haben, dass alle Banken nur Gold short verkaufen.

Wenn Banken Gold an ihre Kunden verkaufen, dass sie zum Verkaufszeitpunkt nicht physisch besitzen, sind die Gold verkaufenden Banken nun einmal short in Gold. Wenn sich später eine Bank ihre Gold Bestände auf den Metall Konten ihrer Kunden absichern will, könnte sie, diese Mengen an Gold natürlich auch am Markt kaufen. Dann wäre die Bank nicht mehr short in Gold. Doch bekanntlich wählen diese Variante nur die wenigsten Banken, weil das am Markt verfügbare Gold dazu wohl nicht ausreichen würde, weil ja bereits jetzt ein belegtes Produktions Defizit von ca. 1500 Tonnen Gold pro Jahr besteht.

Falls sich die Bank mittels Derivativen auf den Gold Preis absichert, ist die Bank trotzdem immer noch Short in physischem Gold. Die Bank hat nur das finanzielle Risiko an ihrer Shortpositzion an eine andere Partei übertragen. Falls eine Bank die in Wirklichkeit, physisch nicht , oder nur zu einem kleinen Teil vorhandenen Gold Bestände ihrer Kunden, durch Gold Lieferverträge z.Bsp. mit Gold Produzenten direkt absichert, wird eine bestehende Gold Shortposition der Bank, zu einer Shortposition (Hedging Position) des Gold Produzenten. Wo dabei die Risiken für eine Bank liegen können, hat uns kürzlich der Konkurs von "Sons of Gwalia" klar vor Augen geführt. Sons of Gwalia ist wegen eines steigenden Gold Preises, wegen ihrer riesigen Hedge Positionen mit mehreren Gold Bullion Banken, und weil sie zudem noch einiges Gold mehr als überhaupt verfügbar ist, an Banken zu Liefern versprochen hatte, Konkurs gegangen.

Falls die Goldpreise seit dem Verkauf an ihre Kunden preislich ansteigen, würde die Bank drauflegen, falls die Goldpreise zwischenzeitlich fallen, würde die Bank verdienen.

Was glaubst Du, an welcher Variante hat eine Gold Bullion Bank grösseres Interesse?

Was ist daran so schwer zu verstehen?

Gruss

ThaiGuru