Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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From: GATAComm@a...
Date: Mon Sep 27, 2004 3:05 pm
Subject: Original story about 20% dollar devaluation from The Business

Pressure grows on G7 to agree acceleration dollar devaluation

By Allister Heath
The Business, London
Sunday, September 26, 2004

http://thebusinessonline.com/m…ws/view.php?id=13278&s=3&

President Bush is being urged to signal a further
devaluation of the dollar of up to 20 percent to
rebalance the global economy, ahead of Friday's
Group of Seven (G7) and International Monetary
Fund meetings in Washington.

Senior U.S. administration officials in Washington
have over the past few days tried to influence the
White House and the Treasury to put pressure on
the G7 to agree to a dollar depreciation in its final
statement.

The move is being encouraged this weekend by
calls from leading investment banks that the U.S.
needs to restart the long-term greenback
depreciation of the past 2 1/2 years.

In a new report, Binit Patel and Dominic Wilson,
economists at Goldman Sachs, said: "Even taking
into account the approximate 10 percent decline in
the dollar since its peak in early 2002, the dollar
has only gone less than half as far as needed."

Simon Hayley, an economist at Capital Economics,
said: "The main risk for the currency markets is that
the G7 will give in to U.S. pressure and issue a
statement pushing for a weaker dollar. The
September 2003 G7 meeting hinted at this and
sent the euro sharply higher against the dollar."

China is also coming under renewed pressure to
move toward more flexible currency arrangements
and away from its undervalued peg against the
dollar. The renminbi futures markets are pricing in
a 2.7 percent revaluation within one year, less than
before the Dubai G7 meeting last year, but well
above this summer's lows, when change had been
all but ruled out. The trigger for the recent shift in
sentiment is signs that the Chinese authorities are
stepping back from administrative controls,
according to market observers.

"That kind of move would be in China's own
interests, allowing it to deal with local inflationary
pressures through more market-based measures,"
the Goldman Sachs economists said.

The U.S. current account deficit hit a new record in
the second quarter of 2004 and is now larger by an
annualised $129 billion (£72.2bn, E105.8bn) than
the total a year ago. It has now reached 5.8 percent
of gross domestic product (GDP). To reduce the
U.S. current account deficit from its current level to
3 percent of GDP, the trade-weighted dollar would
need to drop by nearly 30 percent, Goldman Sachs
believes.

But the dollar is little changed from a year ago and
there has been only modest movement in Asian
currencies and none in China.

Gordon Brown, the UK chancellor, will use the
IMF meeting to push his plan for revaluing its gold
reserves as a way of releasing more money to cancel
debts the world's poorest countries owe the World
Bank and IMF.

The Canadian dollar surged against other currencies
on Friday, triggered by new data from Statistics
Canada, which said: "Canada's economic growth
accelerated to 1.1 percent in the second quarter,
making it the only G7 nation to top 1 percent, as
growth in the U.S., Japan, and Europe all slowed."

The statement from the G7 meeting in Dubai a year
ago was one of the most important since the 1980s,
many economists believe. It said that "more
flexibility in exchange rates is desirable in major
countries or economic areas to promote smooth and
widespread adjustment in the financial system, based
on market mechanisms."

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RECOMMENDED INTERNET SITES
FOR DAILY MONITORING OF GOLD
AND PRECIOUS METALS
NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Free sites:

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http://www.goldseek.com/

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http://www.DailyReckoning.com

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http://www.sharelynx.com/

http://www.mininglife.com/

http://www.financialsense.com

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http://www.howestreet.com

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http://www.minersmanual.com/minernews.html

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http://www.freemarketnews.com/

http://www.321gold.com/

http://www.silverseek.com/

http://www.investmentrarities.com/

http://www.kuik.com/KH/KH.html
(Korelin Business Report -- audio)

http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/home.htm
(In Spanish)
http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/plata/english.htm
(In English)

Subscription site:

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/

http://www.hsletter.com

Eagle Ranch discussion site:

http://os2eagle.net/checksum.htm

Ted Butler silver commentary archive:

http://www.investmentrarities.com/

----------------------------------------------------

extrel

Danke Dir für Deine Unterstützung. Ich werde den Gold Bugs, und allen anderen die sich meine Postings ansehen möchten erhalten bleiben. Doch hier im Board hat sich was grundlegendes verändert, nicht nur die Werbung für ABN Amros Zocker Papiere.

Habe nichts gegen Werbung einzuwenden. Doch gegen Werbung von Gold Bullion Banken, die eine jahrelange Goldpreis Unterdrückung mindestens mitzuverantworten haben, habe ich sehr viel. Umsomehr als diese Werbung für (Gold) Derivative genau das bewirkt, was ich versuche zu verhindern, dass nähmlich neue und in Sachen Gold Preis Manipulation nicht belesene Anleger, sich zu Hauf unter anderem auch auf Grund dieser ABN Amro Werbung verleiten lassen, anstelle echten Goldes, und Silber, Derivative aufs Gold, oder Silber zu kaufen, die mit Edelmetallen nur soviel zutun haben, als es der ABN Amro hilft einerseits diese Edelmetall Preise besser kontrollieren zu können, Nachfrage nach physischem Gold und Silber abzugraben, und andererseits auf Kosten der meisten nichtinformierten Anleger, gewaltige Gewinne einzufahren.

Die ABN Amro schaltet diese Werbungsflut für ihre Zockerpapiere ganz sicher nicht darum, weil sie damit Geld verlieren will!

ABN Amro ist im Moment überaus darum bemüht, auf Seiten auf denen Informationen zum Gold Geschehen verbreitet werden, mit ihrer Werbung für derivative Gold und Silber Zertifikate zu überfluten, die mit physischem Gold, oder Silber rein gar nichts zu tun haben.

Die meisten Leser hier im Thread, die sich mit der Materie Gold und Silber auskennen, lassen sich von der ABN Amro Werbung wohl nicht beeinflussen, oder wissen mindestens ganz genau auf was sie sich einlassen, wenn sie solche Zertifikate kaufen.

Die täglich neu hinzukommenden neuen Leser die noch nicht so erfahren sind, werden jedoch sehr leicht dazu verleitet ihr Geld aufs Spiel zu setzen, und egal ob mit Calls, Puts, Turbo, Mini, und weiss was ich Zertifikate, meist auch ganz, oder zum grössten Teil verlieren.

Sobald ich eine geeignete von Gold Kartell Banken unbeeinflusste Seite gefunden habe, werde ich umziehen, und nicht etwa aufhören.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

kalle14

Danke für Deinen aktuellen Gold Verkaufstest Erfahrungsbericht.

Du hast den 1 Killo Barren Gold doch schlussendlich nicht auch noch wirklich verkauft?

Das mir der E-Mail geht in Ordnung!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://www.kitco.com/ind/Texashedge/sept272004.html

GOLD WILL RISE, BUT SILVER MAY SKYROCKET

By The Texas Hedge

http://www.texashedge.com/

Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre

September 27, 2004

We think that silver is a once in a lifetime opportunity to participate in the meteoric rise of a dramatically undervalued commodity. The real story on silver is the massive inventory depletion that has taken place over the last decade as depicted in the graph below. Since 1991, the above ground silver supply has declined from about 1.4 billion ounces to an estimated 600 million ounces (130 million of which legendary investor Warren Buffett may or may not still own from his 1998 purchase). Silver deficits now run between 50-100 million ounces per annum. 130 million ounces and possibly much more of the roughly 500-600 million above ground ounces are owned by investors like Buffett, who have no intention to sell anytime soon. In all likelihood, less than 350 million ounces are available to fill supply deficits at anywhere near current prices. We are running at critically low silver reserves and it is entirely possible that some time in the next few years that silver shortages may occur.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/co…Texashedge/sept272004.gif]

The only way to bring the supply/demand in balance for silver is higher prices. This is where the dynamics of the silver market become very exciting for silver bulls. Silver has a dual role as both an industrial metal and a precious metal. The majority of silver's current demand (560 million of 840 million ounces) comes from industrial and photographic uses due, in part, to its high conductivity. The rest of the silver demand is filled in by jewelry, silverware, and coinage. Investment demand in the last few years has been minimal but is picking up as concerns about the U.S. dollar abound. Silver supply is perhaps an even more intriguing situation. 65% of silver mine production is the by-product from copper, zinc, and lead mines. Only 35% of silver demand comes from pure silver mines and from gold primary mines where silver is a by-product. This interesting dynamic sets the stage for a potentially explosive move higher in the silver market.

We believe silver will do well, even if we are wrong about the economy's weakness to come. In a strong economic scenario, a resurgent industrial and electronic demand should propel silver demand higher, creating 50-100+ million ounce annual deficits, which should force prices significantly higher as inventories are depleted. Even better for silver would be the weak economy scenario, which we believe is destined to occur. In that scenario, silver's unique supply characteristics could cause a very large price increase. As strange as it may sound, zinc, copper, and lead prices are the primary driver of silver production in the form of by-products. Zinc, copper, and lead are base metals used in broad ranges of industrial production applications. These base metal mines (65% of silver mine supply) will produce more silver when the economy is doing well and less when the economy is struggling and base metal prices are depressed.

In a weak economic scenario, you could see many base metal producers shutter production and as a consequence, the world silver supply would decrease. At the same time, a weak U.S. economy may lead to a weak dollar, which spurs investment demand for both gold and silver due to the monetary nature of the two precious metals. In such a scenario of declining silver production and rising demand, the price increase required to bring on material amounts of silver supply could be quite large. To quote Warren Buffett, "and because…demand is…relatively inelastic, we don't think [that the] price change required to reestablish an equilibrium between supply and demand would necessarily be minor."

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/co…xashedge/sept272004_3.gif]

Both gold and silver have long been neglected commodities, but we believe they are still in the early stages of a secular bull market for precious metals. We think that gold could again challenge its early 80s highs of 800 bucks an ounce. But, as bullish as we are on gold because of its constrained mine production and the continued debasing of all fiat currencies (particularly the dollar), we believe the move up in silver could be several times higher than gold. And in what we believe is a very unlikely scenario of the economy and the dollar doing well in the next few years, silver will hold up much better than gold because of the tightness in supply/demand and its industrial nature.

We appear to have another catalyst coming in 2004-2005 to drive the silver price higher. A silver ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is in the works of being introduced. A gold ETF is slated for late 2004, and once it is done, the Silver Institute intends to follow suit. Estimates we have seen floated of up to 200 million ounces in demand seem quite possible to us (you have got to remember just how difficult it has been for individual investors to buy, transport, and store silver in the past).

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/co…xashedge/sept272004_2.gif]

The chart above shows the net asset value for the 10 largest U.S. ETFs. It is illogical to think that a gold or silver ETF might have anywhere near the investment interest of the S&P 500 or Dow or even the Russell 2000. That said, we do not think that the investing public's demand for the "Russell 1000 Value" index is extremely high yet it has $2.7 billion in net assets. Why couldn't a gold ETF have investment demand at least high as the Russell 1000 Value Index? And why couldn't a silver ETF be perhaps one third the size of a gold ETF? At that rate, the silver ETF would be $900 million in size and at a current price of $5.56 an ounce that would chew up roughly 160 million ounces of silver (about two years worth of annual supply deficit cushion gone). The great thing about a silver ETF is that we do not think that it would drain much demand from other silver assets, but rather be additive as individuals who didn't take the time to buy silver in the past (because of the hassle) can now push a button on E-trade and own silver. If the silver ETF takes off, all of the sudden you might have less than a year's above ground supply to fill the deficit and there is no practical way that additional mine supply can come on-line that quickly. Throw on the uniquely bullish fundamentals of silver itself and it is easy for us to be bullish on the grey dog when everyone else seems to be so bearish.

September 27, 2004
Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre
Texas Hedge Report

Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre are internationally known analysts and editors of The Texas Hedge Report, a market newsletter that highlights under and overvalued securities in the equity, bond, currency, and commodity markets

For more information, go to http://www.texashedge.com

Unlimited

Willkommen an Board!

Du sprichst ein sehr interessantes Thema bezüglich der Bewertung des SA Rand an, das die meisten Leser hier, zumindest die mit Südafrikanischen Minen im Depot, brennend interessiert.

Die überaus hohe Bewertung des Rand im Vergleich mit dem Dollar, war ja auch der Hauptgrund für das schlechte Abschneiden der SA Minen in den letzten ca. 2 Jahren.

Ich denke Du hast völlig Recht mit Deiner Ansicht, dass der Rand auf Grund der fundamentalen Daten die Du aufgeführt hast, völlig überbewertet scheint, und diese hohe Bewertung mittel-, und langfristig nicht gerechtfertigt ist. Die Zinsen standen, und stehen in SA immer noch auf einem sehr hohen Nivau. Dies sehe ich als Hauptgrund dafür, dass der Rand so hoch bewertet ist. Fundamentaldaten können jedoch auf lange Sicht nicht ignoriert werden, sodass mit einer Kursänderung in SA zu rechnen ist. Zudem kann es der SA Regierung bestimmt nicht entgangen sein, dass die Minen Industrie mit ihren unzähligen Arbeitsplätzen in ihrer Existenz bedroht ist, falls der Wechselkurs des Rand nicht nachgibt. Wenn der Rand schwächer wird, werden die Minen nach und nach endlich wieder Gewinne einfahren, und die SA Minen Aktien Kurse dürften selbst bei angenommenen gleichbleibenden Gold Preisen überproportional ansteigen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Silbertaler

Danke Dir für die Darlegung Deiner interessanten Edelmetall Anlagestrategie.

Ich kann Deine Ausführungen voll nachvollziehen, und habe nichts gegen sie einwenden, soweit es sich, wie ja bei Dir, um einen Kenner der Materie handelt, der genau weiss, was er macht. Ich habe auch im Prinzip nichts gegen eine Beimischung von Derivativen. Kann sogar sinnvoll als Absicherungsstrategie sein. Ich selbst besitze einige sehr langlaufende Calls auf Silber, und Gold als Beimischung. Nur machen diese Beimischungen nur einen kleinen Prozentsatz meines Portefeuilles aus. Den Hauptteil besitze ich physisch, und in Gold,Silber, und einigen anderen Rohstoff Aktien. Zum Spekulieren bevorzuge ich breit gestreut, einige risikoreiche Gold, und Silber Explorer, die jedoch kein Verfalldatum kennen, wie es bei Derivativen der Fall ist. Auch gibt es dabei keine Stop Loss Kurse zu beachten.

Die neu an Gold, und Silber interessierten Anleger hingegen, scheinen heute leider fast ausschliesslich Derivative mit einem möglichst grossem Hebel zu kaufen, um beim Gold, und Silberpreis Anstieg, "möglicht schnell, und sehr viel zu verdienen", und das alles noch ohne auch nur ein Gramm physisches Gold zu besitzen.

Genau diese Kunden bringen der ABN Amro die grössten Einnahmen, wenn wieder einmal die Edelmetall Kurse kurzfristig nicht das machen was die Derivativ Käufer kurzfristig erwarten, oder was die Charts vermuten lassen. Danach tut es weh, manchen sogar finanziell sehr weh.

Danach werden nicht wenige zu Gold, oder Silber Kritiker.

Genau das jedoch gilt es doch zu verhindern!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

September 27 - Gold $408.70 up 90 cents– Silver $6.51 up 13 cents

Commodity Prices Close To Taking Out 20-Year Highs

Zitat

I never see what has been done; I only see what remains to be done...Marie Curie

GO GATA!!!

While recalcitrant crude oil soared to as high as $49.90 per barrel, gold was held in check by the cabal at exactly $410, the high of the day. Mission to hold gold below $410 for this afternoon’s option expiry accomplished. We have witnessed this sort of price action at option expiry a myriad of times over the years. It is called collusion, or dealers conspiring to sell enough bullion, and put enough pressure on the price, to protect from paying out on the calls they have written.

To give you some idea of just how bad the price-rigging was today, gold was up $1 this morning with the euro down on the day. By the close the euro finished at 122.85, up .28, thus having no effect on the "capped" price of gold, just as it had no effect on Friday. Meanwhile, crude oil closed at an all-time high of $49.64, up 76 cents per barrel.

As is the case most of the time, gold made its highs early and then was capped for the rest of the session by the price managers.

The gold open interest rose 631 contracts to 265,682.

Silver was firm all session long and refused to back off along with gold and closed near its highs. The silver open interest gained 941 contracts to 84,507. After the close, it was announced the Comex silver warehouse stocks dropped again, this time down 211,149 ounces to 108,538,847.

The most bullish aspect of the day from gold’s point of view was the overall strength in the commodity sector. The CRB soared to finish at 281.27, up 3.50. It is closing in on 20-year highs made very briefly last March (284 and change on a spike high) and is actually even more bullish than the number reveals. The grain and soy complex have a high weighting in the index and they are currently weakish. The last time the CRB was at these levels, soybeans were on the north side of $10. Lately, November beans have been staring at $5, or half of the highs made earlier this year.

The commodity move was broad based. For the day OJ rallied 6.75 cents, cotton 1.3 cents, sugar 46 cents, coffee 3 cents plus, copper over 2 cents higher with spot closing at 1.3855. Copper is within striking distance of its all-time highs.

Weekly CRB

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CR/W

DEC Treasury bonds rose 14/32 to 113 28/32:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/C4

The spectacle of long-term interest rates continuing to make new lows for the move while commodity prices are making highs is very intriguing and gathering a considerable amount of attention. I stick to my analysis made a few times in this column. Higher commodity prices, especially soaring oil prices, are putting the pinch on US consumers and corporations. This is no flash in the pan as intimated by Alan Greenspan. While Wall Street and Washington remain in denial, these higher costs are gradually having a very negative effect on the US economy and affecting US stock prices negatively also. Spin, spin, spin emanating from the New York/Washington powers is losing its punch. Reality check is winning out. The consequences are likely to be dire for all those falling for the BS coming from both of those cities. My take is that the continuous extremely low long-term interest rates in the US are revealing a great deal more than foreign participation in these markets. They are predicting dire times ahead for the US economy and US stock market!

Once you understand how desperate these people are to conceal reality from the people, you can better understand why these pitiful souls are so desperate to suppress the price of gold. The economic pundits continue to pontificate there is no inflation in the US to worry about. You know exactly what they would be saying if gold were $472 bid. They would be all over the INFLATION case, sighting the surging gold price as proof. Anyone out there still searching for a motive as a reason for the fiendish Gold Cartel doing what they do?

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

What does the Japanese public know?

Monday, September 27 2004

The Bombay bullion market was closed today. Prices from the other cities Reuters reports suggest that, with world gold at $407.50 (AM) and $408.40 (PM), premiums were adequate for legal imports and a little firmer than Friday.

Premiums in Dubai, derived from Standard London’s website, were also firm. Shanghai Gold Exchange prices, on the other hand, stood at a significant discount to world prices on heavy volume. One is increasingly dubious about the function played by this Exchange in world markets.

An interesting story from Korea (courtesy thebulliondesk.com) suggests that the political and economic stress in that country is triggering purchases of foreign exchange assets by the wealthy, including gold. See:

http://english.chosun.com/w21d…/200409/200409250023.html

This is plausible because gold premiums in Korea (rarely updated by Reuters) have been notably high for some months. The gold statistics cited show some impressive gains, although the 240% increase in gold imports y-t-d through August, to $2.98 Billion (maybe 250 tonnes) is probably distorted by the resumption of round-tripping, a popular activity by Korean firms before the ’98 financial crisis.

TOCOM volume dropped 54% today from Friday, to only equal 16,145 Comex lots. The active contract was unchanged; world gold was down 15c from the NY close. Reuters quotes a Japanese trader saying gold saw

"aggressive profit-taking by retail players, but plenty of fund operators...willing to buy the dips"

Perhaps this is so: open interest actually rose the equivalent of 923 Comex lots to equal 86,507 contracts. (NY on Friday traded 47,655 contracts; open interest rose 634 contracts) Apparently the "General Public" long calculated by the usual method of inverting the Trade House short is now the lowest since the gold nadir in early September ’99. Mitsui-London actually suggested late Friday that the public was short, with the small long being supplied by locally-active commodity funds. A public short in gold is extremely rare.

Quite why this should happen now is not obvious. Gold has returned to a four year high in yen, having risen quite smoothly since the first Washington Accord, but on the face of it neither world gold nor the yen seem certain to move in unfavorable directions. However, the Japanese commodities public does sometimes get into a mania. They were several times induced to short palladium ahead of the anticipated resumption of Russian exports in the early part of three years in the mid 90s. The consequences were catastrophic. Could they have been "authoratively" told gold will be capped at $410-12?

This is certainly a level several Western observers are focusing on. Refco Research:

"December gold continues to face stubborn resistance above 410…it may take another bout of dollar weakness to…overcome the bank selling which continues to surface above 410."

ScotiaMocatta:

"The EURO topped out at the 1.2360 level and soon reversed, forcing gold lower. News from the Comex that the open interest was up by 9,599 contracts to a new total of 265,051 added to the selling pressure. New York

dealers made attempts at supporting gold but there seemed to be too much metal for sale."

UBS:

Zitat

"Gold made another attempt to challenge resistance above $410/oz on Friday but could not hold the gains …US and European investment banks were seen as gold sellers, pushing the metal down to lows around $407/oz"

JB

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The PPT did all they could to keep the DOW above psychologically important 10,000 all day long. It was to no avail as the DOW sank late to 9989, off 59. The DOG growled its way lower to 1860, down 20.

Some US economic news:

09:50 DOE says it is not considering halting fill of SPR crude oil -- Dow Jones
DOE says it has received more requests from refiners relative to oil from the SPR. * * * * *
The good housing news:

10:00 August New Home Sales reported 1.184M vs. consensus 1.155M
Prior reading revised to 1.082M from 1.134M.
* * * * *
The bad housing news:

U.S. AUG NEW HOME INVENTORY 25-YEAR HIGH OF 404,000

More Fannie Mae flap:

9/26 FNM investors have been betrayed, says Sunday NYT
Columnist Gretchen Morgenson says that the corporation is run by management that puts its interest ahead of those of the investor. Referring to the OFHEO report, Morgenson says the report indicates that executives are willing to manipulate numbers in order to make estimates. FNM recorded $12.3B in deferred losses relative to cash-flow hedges, and if FNM has to take some of the losses against retained earnings, its regulatory capital will face the consequences. Morgenson says FNM's regulator may force FNM to raise capital.

Those out there looking for a copper price plunge are getting their butts handed to them. As in silver, the inventories in Europe are very tight:

Copper Prices Rise to Six-Month High After Inventory Tumbles

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices rose to a six-month high after a measure of global inventory fell the most since April 1997, indicating demand continued to outpace production.
Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell 3.7 percent to 94,725 metric tons, down 78 percent this year. Inventory tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 21 percent last week to 23,375 tons amid forecasts for a deficit….

-END-

This story created quite the buzz last night. Still just a story at this point, yet one of big-time interest to our camp:

Pressure Grows On G7 To Agree Dlr Devaluation

09/26/2004

LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.S. President George Bush is being urged to signal a dollar devaluation of up to 20% to rebalance the global economy ahead of Friday's Group of Seven and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, the U.K.'s The Business newspaper reported.

Senior U.S. administration officials in Washington have over the past few days tried to influence the White House and U.S. Treasury to put pressure on the G7 to agree to a dollar depreciation in its final statement, the newspaper said.

Recent data have shown the U.S. current account and trade deficits running at record levels, and economists have said a dollar depreciation is needed to rein these in….

-END-

Here is story very familiar to the GATA one. Many pension funds in the US are in serious trouble. The solutions to remedying the problem are not easy ones – ones which politicians looking to be re-elected shy away from. The whistleblower in this case sees a coming "Enron, " very similar to what GATA envisions coming in the gold/US financial markets as a result of the rigging of the price of gold for so long:

Pension Woes Put San Diego on Brink

Fri Sep 24, 7:36 PM ET

By ELLIOT SPAGAT, AP Business Writer

SAN DIEGO - For 16 months, the whistleblower was ignored. Diann Shipione, a trustee of San Diego's pension plan, sent letters to the mayor, wrote opinion pieces in the newspapers and spoke to the City Council, warning that the fund was a ticking time bomb and that the city was the "municipal Enron."

But the mind-numbing accounting complexities that the 52-year-old stockbroker described made it easy to dismiss her concerns. And a top city official assured the City Council that she "omitted, slanted and misrepresented the facts."

When people finally started listening — and it took a distinguished, outside lawyer for that to happen — San Diego became engulfed in a scandal that now threatens to push the nation's seventh-largest city into bankruptcy.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (news - web sites) and the Justice Department (news - web sites) are investigating whether the city hid bad news about its pension plan. The city manager and auditor have resigned. And the mayor is spending the final weeks of his re-election campaign trying to assure the public of the city's stability.

"America's Finest City" is in a fine mess. Its unfunded pension liability — the gap between the value of its pension assets and its obligation to retirees — stood at $1.17 billion at the end of January. It also faces a shortfall of $545 million for retiree medical benefits.

This seaside city of 1.3 million people — long hailed as a model of fiscal probity — would need to double its pension contribution next year to $259 million, or about one-tenth of its annual budget, just to avoid falling further behind, said April Boling, who heads Mayor Dick Murphy's Pension Reform Committee. That is more than three times what the city spends on parks and seven times what it gives libraries.

Boling, who is also Murphy's campaign treasurer, said the city will need to borrow $600 million on the bond market over three years and raise the retirement age from 55 to 62, among other things.

"If the city doesn't follow our recommendations, we will be headed toward bankruptcy," Boling said. "That is a fact."

On Wall Street, Standard & Poor's took the rare step of suspending its ratings on the city's debt Monday. On Friday, Moody's Investors Service downgraded its ratings on the city's debt for the second time since mid-August.

How did San Diego get into this mess?

A blistering report last week describes the city's long history of promising more than it could deliver.

The report, prepared by a law firm hired by the city, portrays a dysfunctional City Hall: a city manager — effectively San Diego's chief executive officer — who didn't bother to read financial disclosures and wasn't on speaking terms with his finance deputy, and a "check-the-box mentality" when it came to preparing financial disclosures.

The problem began in 1980, when the city began using above-average returns on its pension investments to give annual bonus checks to retirees, whose buying power had been battered by double-digit inflation. Typically, investment gains are set aside to cushion against downturns in the market.

In 1996, when the city was grappling with expenses imposed by the state and the costs of hosting the Republican National Convention, it cut its contributions to the pension fund and, at the same time, promised enhanced retirement benefits.

In 2002, it cut pension contributions and improved benefits again, in part because of a class-action settlement with retirees.

To make matters worse, the stock-market bubble popped, straining pension funds across the country. In an October 2001 e-mail to a colleague, Terri Webster, assistant city auditor, summed up the impact in her subject line: "EEEK."

The mayor, a former judge elected four years ago, said now he regrets the 2002 vote but notes the problem began long before him. He is being pounded by his opponent, San Diego County Supervisor Ron Roberts, for a "steady drumbeat of denial."

Shipione, a lone wolf on the pension board who was appointed by the previous mayor, had been crying foul since May 2002. But people did not take her seriously until one night last September: Paul Webber, an outside attorney who was handling a sewer bond sale for San Diego, came across a Shipione letter to City Hall and grew alarmed.

Webber, a highly regarded 70-year-old partner at a law firm in Los Angeles, was not so easy to brush aside. But people at City Hall tried.

When Webber insisted the city detail its billion-dollar problem and spell out future risks, City Treasurer Mary Vattimo scoffed, saying in an e-mail to a colleague that his demand "is OVERKILL." His relations with city officials quickly heated to "a boiling point," according to the law firm report, and he received angry e-mails from city employees, one of them accusing him of making "much ado about nothing."

Nevertheless, his hard-nosed questions would blow the scandal wide open and lead to resignations at City Hall in February and March.

Webber declined to comment. As for Shipione, she is not taking any bows for her prescient — and long-ignored — warnings.

"This is such an enormous problem," she said. "I don't even want to get into the I-told-you-so's and pointing fingers. I'd like to keep the focus on what we can do."

-END-

Here they go again! True to form, The Gold Cartel folks are talking up the notion to mobilize IMF gold to suppress the price under the guise they want to help the poor. What hypocrites:

Britain Proposes Debt Relief to Nations

Sun Sep 26, 1:51 PM ET

Treasury chief Gordon Brown said many developing countries were crippled by servicing their debt and could not invest in their infrastructure.

"We will pay our share of the multilateral debt repayments of reforming low-income countries," Brown said in a statement, released by the Department of International Development.

Zitat

"We will make payments in their stead to the World Bank and African Development Bank for the portion that relates to Britain's share of this debt. We do this alone today but I urge other countries to follow so that over indebted countries are relieved of the burden of servicing all unpayable multilateral debt."

Brown was scheduled to reveal further details in a speech later Sunday to a "Vote for Trade Justice" event at a church in Brighton, the coastal town where the governing Labour Party is holding its annual conference.

Britain holds about 10 percent of the total debt owed to the World Bank and other development banks, or about 7 percent of all the debt of the world's poorest nations.

Britain's Development Secretary Hilary Benn said poor countries needed "significant additional resources" to "lift people out of poverty, get children into primary schools and improve basic health."

"Debt relief is an efficient way of transferring these resources to countries that can use them most effectively," he said in the statement. "We call on other governments, especially our G-8 partners, to join us so that no country is held back by the burden of unsustainable debt."

To be eligible for the debt relief, countries must be able to show the savings will be used to meet the goals of the 2000 Millennium Summit. Those goals include halving the number of people living in dire poverty from 2000 levels; ensuring that all children have an elementary school education; ensuring that all families have clean water; and halting the AIDS epidemic — all by 2015.

The list of countries will include those that have been through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative: Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guyana, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Niger, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, as well as a number of other countries such as Vietnam and Armenia, where the World Bank has assessed the countries are capable of absorbing direct budget support, the statement said.

Britain also called for debt payments owed to the International Monetary Fund to be funded through the more efficient use of IMF gold reserves.

-END-

Possible motive for Brown popping off:

DJ FOCUS: Europe's Central Banks Unlikely To Fill Gold Sale Quota

(Repeating) By Elisabeth Behrmann

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Gold sales over the next five years by European central banks under the renewed gold sales agreement are unlikely to reach the upper limit of 2,500 metric tons, although the sale intentions of most of the 15 signatories are still unclear, analysts said Thursday….

-END-

Brown is a bomb thrower, just as Germany’s Ernst Welteke was for years. However, his bombast does have the London gold world in a bit of a twit. Word from LONDON is to expect more of this in October as gold moves towards $430.

Brown will have his work cut out for him:

A Factsheet - September 2004

Gold in the IMF

Gold played a central role in the international monetary system until the collapse of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates in 1973. Since then, the role of gold has been gradually reduced. However, it is still an important asset in the reserve holdings of a number of countries, and the IMF remains one of the largest official holders of gold in the world.

The IMF’s gold holdings

The IMF holds 103.4 million ounces (3,217 metric tons) of gold at designated depositories. The IMF’s total gold holdings are valued on its balance sheet at SDR 5.9 billion (about $8.5 billion) on the basis of historical cost. As of August 31, 2004, the IMF's holdings amounted to $42.2 billion (at then current market prices).

The IMF acquired virtually all its gold holdings through four main types of transactions under the original Articles of Agreement. First, the original Articles prescribed that 25 percent of initial quota subscriptions and subsequent quota increases were to be paid in gold. This represented the largest source of the IMF's gold. Second, all payments of charges (i.e., interest on members' use of IMF credit) were normally made in gold. Third, a member wishing to purchase the currency of another member could acquire it by selling gold to the IMF. The major use of this provision was sales of gold to the IMF by South Africa in 1970–71. And finally, members could use gold to repay the IMF for credit previously extended.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH II

The IMF’s policy on gold today

The Second Amendment to the Articles of Agreement in April 1978 eliminated the use of gold as the common denominator of the post-World War II exchange rate system and as the basis of the value of the Special Drawing Right (SDR). It also abolished the official price of gold and abrogated the obligatory use of gold in transactions between the IMF and its members. It furthermore required that the IMF, when dealing in gold, avoid managing its price or establishing a fixed price.

The Articles of Agreement now limit the use of gold in the IMF’s operations and transactions. The IMF may sell gold outright on the basis of prevailing market prices, and may accept gold in the discharge of a member's obligations at an agreed price, based on market prices at the time of acceptance. These transactions in gold require an 85 percent majority of total voting power. The IMF does not have the authority to engage in any other gold transactions—such as loans, leases, swaps, or use of gold as collateral—

nor does it have the authority to buy gold…..

-END-

So much for the IMF to be one of those secretly lending their gold out.

Wistar "Spartacus" Holt has a few more words for Radius Gold:

From: Wistar Holt - wholt@holtshapard.com
Sent: Saturday, September 25, 2004 7:46 PM
To: 'RalphR@Goldgroup.com'
Subject: Wistar Holt @ Holt & Shapard Capital Management St. Louis, Mo.

Dear Ralph,

Let me confess up front that neither I nor my clients are shareholders of Radius Gold. However, the portfolios I do manage as a S.E.C. registered advisor (25 years in asset management) are comprised of 70% major, unhedged mining stocks. And, I’m not even a sector manager but rather subscribe to a deep value style. I complement that gold position with 15% foreign govt. bonds (countering the U.S. dollar) as well as a 15% traditional equity short position. Obviously, gold and silver are the only place I find true value today.

Now the purpose of my letter is a response you made to a letter from another GATA supporter, Marilyn Guinnane. And I quote, "As for GATA, if I subscribed to their opinions, I’d be happy to post the (Sprott) report. Sadly neither myself nor Simon are particularly convinced of Bill Murphy’s rather heated articles. If he was more measured and used less exclamation points, I might have more time for him."

Ralph, I entered the gold market in Jan. 2001, and I guess I have been consuming Bill Murphy’s work for only about a year. Now I’m sure that many other mining executives, like you, are "turned off" by Bill’s frequent sarcasm and criticism, to the point whereby the message is drowned by the delivery of the messenger. However, I would objectively like to point something out in his defense.

The other day, Bill "captured" much of his website’s original, daily reports going back to 1999. As I read many of those revelations for the first time, I was truly stunned at the accuracy of several of his significant predictions; seeing that they came true 5 years later. One, that Barricks, the world’s largest gold hedger would ultimately be forced into reversing their suicidal strategy as gold began its bull market. Two, that Barricks and JP Morgan would eventually be accused of price manipulation in the court of law. Thanks to the effort by Blanchard, both of those have now occurred.

Despite such excellent foresight on Bill’s part, much of GATA’s accusations of manipulation have continued to be met by ongoing and widespread denial and apathy by the mining industry executives. Rarely is this disbelief supported or documented. Instead, it is merely ignored. The great irony to us GATA supporters is that those that Bill is trying to help the most, rarely give him the time of day. Fortunately, there are a few exceptions. I should know, having personally contacted executives of all 7 of our mining positions. I haven’t decided yet, but it may come to the point whereby I maintain positions only in companies that provide encouragement and support to GATA.

Ralph, now I conceitedly consider myself a man of persistence and determination. However, if I had been in Bill’s position enduring all of that frustration over all of those years, attempting to convince management of manipulation TO NO AVAIL; I have to admit, I would have "lost it" a long time ago.

So, after all of these frustrating years, if Bill’s emotions succumb to an unproductive tone, well then cut him some slack. He deserves it; he is only human….and Irish at that! Look past that minor flaw and remember, we are all on the same side.

Regards,

Wistar W. Holt
Holt & Shapard Capital Management, LLC
212 N. Kingshighway Blvd. Suite 1027
St. Louis, MO 63108
(314)367-6300 / (877)367-6300
http://www.holtshapard.com/

Bill:

With respect to your discussion about Newmont not taking on the Cartel I suggest it is because they are owned by the cartel, at least to the extent that they have controlling interest. Cheers from Auckland, Ed

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/Midas0927A.gif]

The gold shares diddled around with the XAU up .41 to 96.71 and the HUI up .44 to 216.02. The senior gold shares gained as a group late in the day, even as the general market made lows for the session.

Sticking to my guns. The smell is in the air for gold and silver to pop big time. The gold fundamentals are super, "10+++++." Once $412 is conquered the bad guys should begin to really feel the heat.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

My friend Mahendra sent permission to put up his latest, which came out over the weekend. He called the stock market rally and thus far he timed the end of the rally. Yikes for US stock market investors. Mahendra now joins Frank Veneroso as the two big bears on China. Bullish Russia makes sense with its huge gold and oil reserves. Now if only Mother Nature would overpower The Gold Cartel.

Dear Members,

The phase into which we have moved is an interesting era where time will bring great changes in the financial market trends. If not well braced and ready for these changes, then one better move out of the market and be engaged in some other work.

Many investors have retained their entire focus on areas in which they have made money in the past and forgotten that times are ever changing. Time never remains static and we must therefore always embrace new ideals and practices so as to keep pace with the motions of the ever changing times. Due to their limited outlook, many have missed out on other areas favoured by time in which they would have reaped handsome rewards.

Though people are generally not fond of being told bad news about what they love, I would like to remind them that they should also be ready for the worst period if time or nature so warns. I am therefore not reluctant to be a bearer of ill tidings in this regard when it is meant to help you put in place appropriate strategies to confront the future.

Just take an example of OIL - When I made the prediction last year that it would reach $50 and I advised many to invest in it on that ground, some asked me ‘who cares’ whether oil goes to $50 or not. Today, the whole world is talking about it but still no one seems overly concerned of its negative implications in coming time.

Most financial TV channels in the USA say that economy is sound and that everything is doing well. This is while time/destiny is saying something different! Nature says that ignorance is like suicidal: as people saying ‘who cares’ and going to the beach to have a good time despite meteorological warnings of an imminent hurricane. Such conduct can only be to the detriment of anyone imprudent enough to ignore such warning.

TODAY I AM WARNING ALL THE WORLD’S MICRO-ECONOMISTS, FINANCIAL POLICY MAKERS, CENTRAL BANK GOVERNORS AND FED CHAIRMAN ALLAN GREENSPAN;

that nothing is fine in USA, Europe and China’s economy and these key people should take immediate steps on weakness. They should hide weakness or negativity. Allan Greenspan or any economists have seen one year back rising oil prices? Or can they explain the reason behind current rising of oil! infect now Iraq is free from Saddam. No, they can’t answer because the reason is time factor, destiny or nature.

There is a very strong reason for my untiring prediction that the worst crash of the stock market is imminent. It was good time because people have made easy money in USA market in last 14 years bull market as well as directionless fed policy but now time is coming difficult. I don’t know how they will handle this coming worst depression time where it will be hard to earn or there will be very less value of money US dollar if you compare against GOLD. This will be the same case for all major world currencies against GOLD.

Last year, there was a reason behind my firm assertion that the housing bubble in the USA and EUROPE would burst after October 2004.

Similarly, there is a reason for stating many times that RUSSIA will rise strongly and that China will collapse. USA economist or companies are banking lot on China. Mean they are depending on some one who is weakening inside and soon it this will be confirm openly. Hardly anybody was believing me when I predicted for USSR disintrigate and collapse of second superpower in 1987, infect I was tell to go out office from media house in India because that time India and USSR had a great friendship.

Two years back, there was a reason for my prediction of the USA-IRAQ war. And for the last four years, I have been predicting a declining US Dollar and the rise of metal prices- There is a reason for this too.

Last week I stated on stock market – ‘THE BEAR TREND IS FINALLY ENTERING WALL STREET (DOW JONES) AND ALL BLUE-CHIP STOCKS WILL SHOW WEAKNESS. MONDAY’S LAST HOUR TRADING SESSION OR TUESDAY COULD BE THE DAY and bears will make the complete unbreakable circle by 21st September. Finally, the rising history of the DOW will end on 21 September. Indeed, we will not see the current index in the next 7 years’. Needless to say, there is also a reason behind this.

Each and every event on earth shapes the way the future unfolds. An analysis of the points above by any intelligent person will naturally lead to the question: is the USA collapsing economically and socially or falling from the position of super power? If they want to retain position than they should take control on deficit, oil and gold (this I have been saying since last 3 years). Only gold rise can save USA if they keep high deposit of GOLD or they can use this in future against deficit.

I am just trying to portray the future as I discern it and it is entirely upon you to either regard it seriously or dismiss it. I have stopped my book halfway and it might have all the reasons mentioned above when it is finally released at the end of Jan 2005.

There are times when I wonder why I am so much engrossed and concerned with the well being of this beautiful planet and doubt whether to just let go and enjoy my life; but there is probably a good reason behind this too.

Let me state once again that I not against any religion, country group or individual. I am just predicting what I see. I hope and pray that my prediction on USA and China collapsing come wrong.

On very rare occasion I have came wrong since I started predicting from age 14 world event and from age 19 on world financial market. Today I am happy for my methodology (or you can call astrology, prophecy, vision or wisdom) because it has given me reorganization in world financial market. Today my newsletter members are key world well known investor's, ceo of many companies, banks, fund and financial institutions. I try to give right path or inside in well advance to all my members.......

WORLD EVENTS

Tuesday or Wednesday of this week does not portend good for the world. Some kind of natural disaster could befall us, though my vision is not clear concerning where it will occur and of exactly what nature it will be. Let us therefore be mindful and pray that the week may smoothly pass.

Thanks & God Bless
http://www.mahendraprophecy.com