Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Milliarden-Steuerloch des Bundes gegenüber Schätzwert


    http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=595023&section=news


    Freitag 1 Oktober, 2004 18:10 CET


    Berlin (Reuters) - Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel kalkuliert in seinem Nachtragshaushalt für dieses Jahr nach Angaben aus Regierungskreisen mit sinkenden Steuereinnahmen, die um gut vier Milliarden Euro unter der Steuerschätzung vom Mai liegen.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://wwwi.reuters.com/images/2004-10-01T161043Z_01_DEO157148_RTRDEOP_2_PICTURE0.jpg]


    In den Kreisen wurden damit am Freitag Zahlen bestätigt, die das "Handelsblatt" zuvor in seinem Online-Dienst genannt hatte. Demnach sind die Steuereinnahmen im Nachtragshaushalt nur noch mit 184,7 Milliarden Euro eingeplant. In seinem ursprünglichen Haushaltsplan hatte Eichel mit 197,7 Milliarden Euro gerechnet, also 13 Milliarden Euro mehr. Im Mai veranschlagten dann aber die Steuerschätzer die Steuereinnahmen des Bundes bereits nur noch auf 188,8 Milliarden Euro.


    Der Bundesbank-Gewinn ist den Kreisen zufolge im Nachtragshaushalt 2004 mit 248 Millionen Euro enthalten. Ursprünglich waren hier 3,5 Milliarden Euro erwartet worden. Insgesamt gehe der revidierte Etatentwurf von Ausgaben von 255,6 Milliarden Euro aus und damit 1,7 Milliarden Euro weniger als im ursprünglichen Budget.


    Eichel (SPD) hatte vor wenigen Tagen angekündigt, er werde am kommenden Mittwoch dem Kabinett seinen Nachtragshaushalt vorlegen, der eine neue Rekord-Neuverschuldung von rund 43,7 Milliarden Euro beinhalten werde. Damit wird der Ansatz für die Investitionen des Bundes um 19,1 Milliarden Euro überschritten.


    Diese Überschreitung ist nach Maßgabe des Grundgesetzes nur ausnahmsweise ;) dann erlaubt, wenn das gesamtwirtschaftliche Gleichgewicht gestört ist.


    "Diese Ausnahmesituation ist im Jahr 2004 gegeben"


    zitierte das "Handelsblatt" aus dem Entwurf für den Nachtragshaushalt. Der Nachtragshaushalt umfasst auch deutliche Mehrausgaben für die Arbeitslosenhilfe und das Wohngeld.

    Seht Euch mal den Durban-Kurs an - so ein plötzlicher Anstieg ?
    Merkwürdig , oder ?
    Weiß da jemand mehr ?
    Ich vermute ja immer noch, daß eines Tages Kebble die Hände über Randgold Resources nach Durban ausstreckt.
    Nach seinem Rauswurf wird diese Niederlage tief in ihm stecken...
    Auf jeden Fall ein merkwürdiger Anstieg momentan...
    Spieler

    "So wie die Freiheit bleibt Gold nie lange dort, wo es nicht geschätzt wird."
    J.S.Morill in einer Rede vor dem U.S.-Senat am 28.01.1878.

    Der Gold Bullion Banken Interessen vertretende Gold Basher Wolfgang heute in einem Interview zu Gold!


    http://www.fundresearch.de/ber…rikNr=474&BerichtNr=87295


    01.10.2004 09:29


    Gold: Kaum Phantasie


    Wrzesniok-Roßbach: Die Chancen sind nicht so gut. Wir sehen derzeit kein besonderes Interesse bei Investoren oder Spekulanten. Nur wenn der Dollar stark an Wert verliert, dürfte der Goldpreis anziehen.


    ***


    Wolfgang Du musst Farbenblind sein?


    Der Goldpreis ist heute gestiegen Wolfgang, trotz des hochgedrehten Dollar Kurses!

    Der erste ernstzunehmende Opponent gegen die von Gordon Brown vorgeschlagenen IMF Gold Neubewertung, und den von Ihm so uneigennützig?geplanten Verkäufe, zu Gunsten der ärmsten Länder dieser Welt, melden sich bereits öffentlich zu Wort!


    I. Kanada


    Mann sollte in den nächsten Tagen die Zeitungen etwas mehr als sonst studieren. Diejenigen Länder die sich nächstens am stärksten für IMF Goldverkäufe einsetzen, werden wohl die grössten Eigeninteressen (Goldausleihungen?) an diesen geplanten Gold Verkäufen haben. England unter Federführung Gordon Browns, wird sich nach meiner Ueberzeugung, wohl am stärksten als Befürworter zu Worte melden. Länder die als potentielle Gold Käufer Interesse an tieferen Goldpreisen haben, sowie die als direkte Nutzniesser bedachten armen Länder werden sich wohl ebenfalls auf die Befürworterseite begeben. Auf die weiteren Befürworter Länder warte ich schon sehr gespannt. Dürfte sehr aufschlussreich werden.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.reuters.com/locales/images/reuters.gif]


    http://www.reuters.com/locales…Key=en_CA&storyID=6392908


    Canada Says IMF Gold Revaluation a Non-Starter

    Fri October 1, 2004 2:56 PM GMT-04:00
    By Gilbert Le Gras


    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Canada, a major gold miner, is opposed to revaluing International Monetary Fund gold reserves to offset possible debt forgiveness for poor countries, Finance Minister Ralph Goodale said on Friday.


    The IMF values its gold reserves at a fraction of market prices. Gold was trading around $418.85 an ounce on Friday. A large selloff would depress prices and hurt the bottom line of gold-mining firms, which pay significant royalties and taxes.


    Finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading industrial nations are in Washington to discuss, among other things, writing off poor countries' debts and creating a seed-money fund for small businesses in Africa and the greater Middle East.


    Covering the cost of a debt write-off is the subject of debate as Canada and the United States, which operate on full-accrual accounting, would book a large write-down in the year a potential gold-backed write-off would occur.


    European members of the G7 balance their national accounts on a cash basis, meaning a gold sale could be spread out over time thereby lessening the pressure on their fiscal balance.


    Zitat

    "That is a significant issue for us because of the accounting issues and also because we are a mining country," Goodale told Reuters as he walked to the U.S. Treasury.


    Canada is also the only G7 member to remain in fiscal surplus, but large new initiatives in public health and payments to provincial governments have led many analysts to suspect future surpluses may be narrower than in the past.


    Zitat

    "There are significant issues with the issue of gold revaluation. Quite frankly, unless there's something in this that we don't fully understand yet, that would appear to us to be a bit of a nonstarter," Goodale said.


    Gold traded slightly higher shortly after Goodale's remarks, at $418.85 an ounce, but traders said they were waiting for the final outcome of the weekend discussions.


    The IMF seriously considered a proposal in 1999 to sell 10 percent of its remaining gold reserves to cover debt relief for heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC).


    That proposal was, however, strongly opposed by many gold producing countries and by the mining industry. This influenced the IMF's decision to reject the idea of outright sales, and instead it resorted to off-market transactions to revalue.


    Goodale said it was too early to assess the likelihood of clinching a G7 agreement this weekend on HIPC debt relief.


    Zitat

    "The question is how do we move forward," he said. "There still are very poor countries in the world that are not part of HIPC and there needs to be equity in our treatment of the ones that fall within the HIPC definition and those that don't."


    UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown flies back to Ottawa with Goodale on Sunday, along with South African Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, for a dinner meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin to discuss African debt.


    "We need to find ways to maintain incentives for improved fiscal responsibility and economic behavior," he added.


    [B]G7 countries and global lenders like the IMF and World Bank also discussed creating a $100 million fund to help launch small businesses in the poorest parts of the world, he said.

    Die "Verlierer" Aktien des vergangenen Monats!


    Barrik Gold gehört als Gold Preis Manipulateur und ober Gold Hedger eigentlich in kein Depot. Wer sie trotzdem besitzt, dem kann ich nur empfehlen sie zu verkaufen, und den Verkaufserlös in eine ungehedgte Goldmine zu investieren, wenn er das grosse Hedge Risiko, und die Preisrisiken einer evtl. Verurteilung Barricks, aus den gegen sie laufenden Prozessen vermeiden will.

    Dasselbe in Silber!


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://moneycentral.msn.com/inc/images/cnbc_leftnav.gif]


    http://moneycentral.msn.com/in…ol=SILVER&Industry=Silver


    CNBC scheint anscheinend gerade einmal nur 5 Silberminen zu kennen?


    Ihr werdet es wohl fast nicht für möglich halten?


    http://moneycentral.msn.com/in…arket/top10industries.asp

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    October 1 - Gold $419.10 up 70 cents - Silver $6.90 unchanged


    Gold Open Interest Explodes As Cabal Digs In


    Back from a walk on the ocean. Beautiful day here on the Jersey shore. Not a bad day in the gold pits either, however, it cannot be clearer The Gold Cartel is digging in and desperately wants to prevent gold from taking out $430. The gold open interest exploded to the tune of 18,870 contracts to 290,336. With that sort of new buying pouring into gold yesterday, the price should have risen $12+. A move of a little less than $6 is pitiful. Orders had to come in from cabal headquarters to slow down the gold advance at all costs.


    The COT Report released after the close came out just as expected. The commercials reduced their longs by 7149 contracts and increased their shorts by 12,051 contracts. Naturally, these numbers did not include the 23,000+ increase in the open interest number the past two days. More evidence of how determined the price-cappers are to hold gold in check.


    Why does this gold watching routine have to always be so aggravating? Just once I would like to read mainstream gold commentators explain who was doing all this selling. In years past they would blame gold producer hedging as the culprit whether they were selling or not. Now that it has been well documented the producers are buying back their hedges on balance, the commentators remain silent. Is this silence due to timidity or stupidity?


    Gold and crude oil traded in similar fashion. Both were lower for most of the session and rallied late. Crude oil closed at all-time highs, rising another 48 cents to $50.12 per barrel.


    The CRB closed at multi-decade highs at 285.29, up .28. Copper finished the day at 9-year highs at $1.4040 per pound.


    Can gold take out $430 with the most powerful in the world totally opposed to that happening? Yes, but when is the key. It is going to take something extraordinary for the bad guys to be carried out. The odds favor the cabal on this move, not the specs. Yet, as I keep harping, the real gold move will take place when gold looks just like it does now in terms of vulnerability. We don’t know when The Gold Cartel is going to be crushed, which is why I stay fully committed at all times. What could do it:


    *Crude oil goes bananas and sets serious sail for $60+.


    *The dollar is obliterated.


    *The CRB takes out 300.


    *An unexpected event shakes up the US financial markets.


    *China announcing a 1700 tonne gold purchase, or intentions to do so.


    *Surging physical gold demand which overpowers the cabal’s resources.


    What about this G-7 meeting this weekend? I am told yesterday’s dollar fall was due to expectations of dollar devaluation talk coming out of the meeting. Maybe, but with the US elections only a month a way, it is hard to imagine anything of substance occurring. Why take a chance on rocking the boat? Anything could happen market-wise if the dollar breaks down from here.


    Silver held its gains well. Its open interest leaped 7,485 contracts to 93,209, which was a greater jump percentage-wise than gold’s. Yet, while gold is only 15,000 contracts from its highs earlier this year, the silver open interest must rise 33% to go back to its highs of earlier this year.


    The silver stocks dropped 110,543 ounces to 107,678,554.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    The John Brimelow Report


    Inda, M.East + Funds vs. (?) C Bank


    Friday, October 1 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.57, PM $6.89, with world gold at $418.10 and $417.70. Comfortably above legal import point. The same is true for the northern city of Jaipur; a nearby competitor Ahmedabad was apparently closed; the fourth point Reuters reports, Madras, was at a discount. As noted yesterday, this is an unfashionable time to buy gold in that area for cultural reasons.


    To some degree, the world's largest gold buyer is off on its own private planet here, which is not infrequently the case. Bombay shares rose 1.65% to their highest since May 6th, the rupee strengthened in part because foreign portfolio investments flows, and sentiment was bolstered by slightly lower than anticipated wholesale price inflation. This is the highest level of $US gold at which India has been in import mode since the gold market bottomed in 1999: extremely bad news for Bears.


    NM Rothschild -Sydney today rehashed yesterday's Reuters story on India, without attribution. While asserting that Indian gold demand is "very price sensitive" is in general correct, right now it amounts to serious misadvice to their clients.


    TOCOM was not very impressed. Volume did rise 50% to the equivalent of 28,035 Comex lots, but although the active contract closed up 15 yen at a 20 month high (giving yen gold has a very handsome chart now) open interest rose only the equivalent of 576 Comex lots. World gold went out steady (50c above NY). The public involvement remains very low indeed. How and why they were induced to eliminate their normal long (perhaps even go short) just before a price inflection remains mysterious. (NY yesterday traded 79,941 contracts, 14% above the Comex estimate. Open interest rose an astonishing 18,840 lots - 58.6 tonnes!)


    The Dubai Gold and Minerals Centre has produced statistics for Q2 '04, from which can be calculated that net imports rose 21.4% in the first half 2004, by 24.1 tonnes to 136.8 tonnes. A huge increase given the gold price behavior, indicative that Oil wealth - and perhaps geopolitical considerations - is shifting the demand schedule for bullion in the Middle East. See


    http://www.dmcc.ae/GOLD_statistics.htm


    On Thursday, tartly notes UBS:


    Zitat

    "Gold had rallied ahead of the US open yesterday and then immediately after the open extremely heavy two-way interest was seen on the Comex floor with speculative names heavy buyers against mostly trade selling. About 1 to 1.3 million ounces traded between $417.40 and $418.00 in the Dec future. Gold managed to rally to the highs of the day ($418.60 spot) as further heavy speculative buying was seen and the metal closed around this high bid level."


    Refco Research saw


    ".some noticeable dealer selling."


    These judgments were vindicated by the Comex data today, huge volume being reported and more particularly an open interest increase only slightly surpassed by the 59.3 tonne jump on the infamous Aug 19 blow off this year, and beyond that by only one day in the past 16 years.


    No producer, in this age of diminishing hedge books, has this magnitude of flexibility. A Central Bank has to be present.


    Normally this would mean a top. Friday's market did not agree. And judging from the behavior of the other commodity markets, there are some unusually powerful professional pools in action prepared to dispute the point.


    Long term Chartist Martin Pring has reluctantly taken another Bullish step:


    Zitat

    "The gold price is now at important resistance in the form of the trendline in Chart 7. It stands a good chance of going through since the Gold Bugs Gold Share index has already broken out."


    (The trendline in question was right at the Dec contract close last night: exceeded today by 80c.)


    And the even less-gold friendly Dennis Gartman seems to agree:


    Zitat

    "We have been buyers of gold via gold shares, and we shall continue to hold our positions, having added to the trade earlier this week. The fact that spot gold closed above $417.50 in N. America yesterday is sufficient to pique our interest to buy still more. We'll wait for a while longer, but almost certainly by next week we'll be doing so


    The noted gold bear is less moved:


    ".the last time gold broke $420 it lost almost $50 in 5 weeks."


    Last time, of course, the Indians had already departed.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    $50 oil was supposed to be a negative for the US stock market. For that matter $40+ oil was supposed to be really bad news for the market. Yet, the stock market went gangbusters right off the bat today, throwing all caution to the wind. The DOW rose 112 to 10,193 and the DOG rocketed up 45 to 1942.


    To a man the reason cited was beginning of the quarter buying by portfolio managers. Seems nuts to me.


    The dollar regained some ground, rising .25 to 87.76, while the euro gave up .26 to 124.06.


    The US economic news:


    10:00 Aug. Construction Spending reported 0.8vs. consensus 0.4%
    Prior reading revised to 1.1% from 0.4%.
    * * **


    10:00 September ISM Manufacturing reported 58.5 vs. consensus 58.4 August reading 59. * * * *


    09:47 Sept. Univ. of Michigan Confidence reported 94.2 vs. consensus 96
    Prior reading was 95.8.
    * * * *


    Chuck checks in:


    Hi:
    It's Friday, so I never expect anything. In fact, the only really strong Fridays have been usually tops. I like the opening. Would even like to see the gap hold here but I think that there are buyers under every rock and behind every bush. Nothing would surprise me from here. There are a lot of sold out bears out there in gold, and they are going to have to swallow their pride and recommend it again especially when it makes a new high…..


    I would look at the first few days of the new quarter as a high in the market. Since the sentiment is still highly bullish, it's very likely that there will be funds wishing to be placed in equities. Today smells of that. They still can't get enough, in spite of the problems, scandals, dropping liquidity, etc. This market still remains a lightning rod for perpetual optimism. Contrarily, the golds gapped down, not surprising since it remains a mirror of stocks and there has been a lot of new players getting the "fever." We will probably need a new days of rehabilitation to get the excitable momentum players out. The exploration sectors, to me, remains a special place to buy. The fever has not yet spread to this section, but it will.


    The exit for stocks will be very small and the entrance for the golds very narrow also. Don't wait until everyone wants to get out and in at the same time. Chuck


    Houston's Dan Norcini on the OI increase:


    Hey Wild Bill:


    Hope you're staying out of mischief up there. I should have sent a chaperone to follow you around just to make sure!


    I suppose you have seen today's release of the open interest totals detailing what took place in yesterday's breach of upside resistance near the $417.00 level basis December. Stunning is too mild of a word to describe my reaction - more like "someone call the exchange and tell me that the typist hit the wrong keys on the computer!"


    The figures revealed a whopping increase of 23,775 new contracts in December alone! That is downright obscene. The overall increase was 18,830 after allowing for liquidation in the expiring October contract. That brings the total open interest as of yesterday to 290,336. We are about 17,000 shy of the level reached in early April this year when gold topped near $430.


    I had to run back in my records to late March of this year to find anything remotely comparable to a daily open interest increase of the magnitude that we witnessed yesterday. That actually occured near gold $420 as well. Perhaps there is something endemic to the off the books derivatives that makes $420 gold poisonous. I don't know. What I do know is that the cartel threw everything they had at the gold market yesterday and then some. It is obvious that they are making a determined effort to hold this thing down and have decided to make a stand here for whatever reason they have chosen. The question of course remains whether or not they will succeed with demand from the physical market so robust right now.


    As a quick side note - the Commitments data reveals what we all have come to expect at this point - the only sellers in gold have been the commercials. All the specs were buying across all categories. Surprise, surprise!


    I know Mike Bolser is out of touch right now but I can tell those who follow the DIVG that it appears that the cartel has their work cut out for them. Mike is the statistician whereas I am a trader and can only comment from that perspective. What I see however is very impressive from looking at my chart of the DIVG (my data contains the original MCDI numbers as Mike's does). I track both the 100 DMA and 200 DMA (day moving average) of the DIVG and watch its direction and slope. Both are rising which signifies that the cartel is in retreat. The 100 DMA turned up a couple of weeks ago after being in decline for just shy of two months. Additionally, with the exception of the spike upward in the DIVG in March when it ran up to the 362-264 region, the ceiling this year for the DIVG has been near the 355-356 level. We are right at that level again and with today's number coming in at 356.43 have actually surpassed it. I cannot but help to think that this is very significant.


    This next week should be very telling for gold. It would appear that the cartel has to either make a stand here and try to knock it back down or throw in the towel and settle for a "measured" rise in the gold price so as not to draw too much attention to it. If they choose the latter, that will be very revealing as it could well signify that they are reluctant to burn too much of the physical metal in a what must becoming increasingly obvious even to them as a futile attempt to stop an express freight train. The problem they will encounter is that if gold gets away from them on the upside and breaches the $430 region on the Comex charts, that is going to draw an immense amount of notice!


    I would say that gold investors should "get ready to rumble". The battle royale has been joined.


    Best,
    Dan


    Dan's commentary came in right before post time. We sound like the Bobbsey Twins when it comes to today's market analysis.


    Oil Bears beware:


    Hurricane Ivan Drives US Oil Output To 50-Yr Low


    WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Damage caused by Hurricane Ivan has driven U.S. domestic oil production down to a 50-year low, and a slow recovery means world oil markets won't soon shake off the storm's impact.


    Two weeks after Ivan blew through the Gulf of Mexico, home to much of the U.S. oil and gas industry, more than a quarter of daily oil production and almost a fifth of daily natural gas production in the Gulf remain shut in, according to the U.S. Minerals Management Service.


    Affected companies indicated this week that it may be weeks, if not months, before things return to normal - not good news for an oil market already on edge because of lean spare production capacity ahead of the peak winter demand period. U.S. crude is hovering near $50 a barrel, and many analysts expect prices to move even higher….


    -END-


    IMF and Gold:


    Canada says IMF gold revaluation a non-starter


    WASHINGTON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Canada, a significant gold producer, is opposed to revaluing the International Monetary Fund's gold reserves to offset potential debt forgiveness for the world's poorest countries, Finance Minister Ralph Goodale said on Friday.


    "That is a significant issue for us because of the accounting issues and also because we are a mining country," Goodale told Reuters.


    "There are significant issues with the issue of gold revaluation. Quite frankly, unless there's something in this that we don't fully understand yet, that would appear to us to be a bit of a non-starter," he said.


    -END-


    Discord or confusion?


    WASHINGTON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - U.S. and Japanese officials did not discuss foreign exchange policy in a meeting held on Friday ahead of a Group of Seven (G7) finance officials' gathering, a Japanese Finance Ministry official said.


    Currency policy has often been a hot topic at G7 meetings and meetings between officials of the world's top two economies, but less so recently as the dollar has been trading in a narrow range against other currencies.


    A senior U.S. Treasury official offered a slightly contradictory version of the meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow and Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, saying "there was a brief discussion on currencies and our views are well known on that issue."


    But the Japanese official explained that their discussions on foreign exchange had been limited to very general statements and had nothing to do with actual policy.


    "I wouldn't say the word 'currency' was never mentioned. But there was no discussion on currency policy," the official told reporters.


    The topic has often been an uncomfortable one for Japanese officials in international meetings such as the G7, due to Tokyo's controversial policy of intervening in the currency market to counter volatility.


    Japan has not been seen intervening recently as the yen has been stable against the U.S. dollar, but it spent around 20 trillion yen ($181.7 billion) in all of 2003 and 15 trillion yen in the first three months of this year to curb the yen's rise.


    Tanigaki is attending the G7 meeting in Washington along with Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui. The group of rich nations is also due to meet with Chinese officials later.


    Soaring oil prices are expected to be the focus of the G7 meeting, but financial markets are on the watch for any unexpected statement on currencies.


    No shift in stance on currencies is expected but, after the G7 upset the dollar a year ago with a call for greater currency flexibility, the market is wary of any further pressure on governments to allow their currencies to strengthen to help correct the U.S. current account deficit.


    Chinese officials, who met some U.S. counterparts on Thursday, repeated it would move towards a flexible foreign exchange rate but offered no new specifics on timing in a joint statement with U.S. officials on Friday.


    -END-


    GATA’s Mike Bolser is going out on his own and has just launched his own web site. He has come up with some unique insight into the markets and I wish him well in his new business venture. His input to the MIDAS has been very valuable over the years. Mike bows out here with this commentary which I did not receive until last evening:


    Hi Bill:


    This will be a short update as I have been swamped with hurricane repairs including learning about the easy life roofers enjoy, especially in 93 degree heat.


    The Fed has been busy adding repos and permanent open market operations and temps during my absence. The pool stands at $58.966 with a big $1.703 perm today plus a another $16 Billion in temporary open market operations.


    The DOW languishes while the repo pool rockets higher in a blinding trajectory. This action appears to be a set-up for something, most likely a pre-election event that will justify a zooming DOW.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/Repos100104.gif]


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com…4/DivGComp_MCDI100104.gif]


    The Dollar...It isn't what it seems


    Look at the attached MCDI chart and you will see a remarkable proprietary moving average displayed in two phases with a now-familiar hairpin turn. The plus .98 R^2 regression values tell us that, as impossible as it may seem, the MCDI's PMA is the item being controlled by the Fed. Straight lines do not happen in freely traded markets, even in moving averages.


    It is my interpretation that the recent PMA R^2 value would be even higher had the Fed not begun its new down turn.


    Knowledge like this is why I have changed to a subscription service to be announced at my site tomorrow. http://www.interventionalanalysis.com/


    What this means is that a period of falling MCDI and therefore rising gold lies ahead but not before am ambush on Monday or Tuesday. The measures I follow that give me a forward looking capacity continue to point to a surprise. It will be a brief on as the MCDI tells us. These long straight phases, which I have analyzed with unique computer tools, tell us that the Fed sets up a psudo-random market action in the MCDI and other important strategic indexes and commodities.


    I wish to again thank Bill Murphy for his courage and perseverance in attacking the gold cartel for its shameless market manipulation and for providing me with a forum.


    Kindest regards,
    Mike


    Auckland Ed from Kiwiland this morning their time:


    Hi Bill:

    With this move in Gold today I decided to check my records.


    On Oct 1st 2001 the Gold price was $285.00
    Today three years later it is $418 for a 47% gain.


    However imagine you are a Kiwi and you think in New Zealand Dollars.


    Well on Oct 1st 2001 the Gold Price was NZ$700
    Today three year later it is NZ$615 for a 12% loss.


    How is that possible. Well the NZ Dollar was worth 40.70 US cents 3 years ago and now it trades at 67.80 US cents for a gain of 66.5%


    There is still no bull market in Gold in New Zealand, Australia, Canada, South Africa or the Euro Zone. We still have some MAJOR hurdles to cross. We'll get there but we're not there yet.


    Cheers from Auckland, Ed


    Some kind of week:


    Bill,


    Several primary commodities closed on their highs for the week. Most notably copper, crude oil, heating oil, gold and silver.


    Gold and silver are at new multi-month closing highs. Copper is at a new multi-year closing high. Crude oil and heating oil are at new all-time closing highs.


    This type of market action can sometimes portend events that are about to happen, especially over a weekend. Additionally, when you factor in that these closings occurred in heavily suppressed markets, the potential of the event may be dramatically amplified.


    This is similar to the currency market action in Sept 1985 prior to the Plaza Accord, the stock market action in October 1987 prior to the crash and the gold market action in September 1999 prior to the Washington Agreement.


    Will something happen this weekend with the G-7 plus China? I don't know. But I do know that one day a big event will happen.


    When the big event does occur, it will seem to the vast majority that the world will have been turned upside down overnight, ... as if a switch had been flipped.


    The majority's ideas, regarding the way the world works, will no longer be valid. To them it will be as if the world has gone insane. The majority will come to realize, painfully so, that the ideas they followed were false principles all along.


    It will be painful to all those except, perhaps, GATA believers.


    Will this weekend result in a flip of the switch? I don't know. However, I do believe the inteventionists will spend the weekend planning a full court press against the markets next week.


    We will see what, if anything, develops.


    All the best,
    Raymond Green
    RGreen@ilnk.com


    “10+++++” gold fundamentals say it all. No reason for gold not to be well north of $500, for that matter. Only a matter of time, and not much time, before we get there. The price of gold and the US CPI have a lot in common. Both are artificially suppressed to dupe the public. However, they are different in that the crooks holding the gold price down are going to run out of physical to continue their scam. If my take is correct, the rapidity of the rise when $430 is taken out will stun most market observers and certainly will wow the investing public.


    The shares took a breather with the XAU losing .89 to 101.06 and the HUI dropping 1.99 to 229.39.


    A big winner today was The Roodeport Rocket, Durban Deep. This overly maligned firm gained 22 cents to $2.23. When gold takes out $430, watch The Rocket head for the moon. Golden Star Resources, way undervalued at $5.35 (up 8 cents today to buck the minor share sell-off day), ought to screech higher like The Roadrunner when $430 is breached too.


    Gold, silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS

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