Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Das EUR/USD-Verhältnis wird zunehmend interessanter (aktuell: 1,2486) und scheint kurz vor einem Ausbruch nach oben zu stehen (siehe auch: http://www.godmode-trader.de/news.php?show=202320 )


    Dies kann nur sehr positiv für Gold und Silber sein, da dann auch bei beiden aufgrund der zunehmenden Unsicherheiten wieder Kurssteigerungen zu erwarten sind und ich davon ausgehe, dass beide im Kurs stärker zulegen als die Kursverluste durch den schwächeren Dollar sind.

    Ulfur,Ghost_god, extrel, Spieler0815, afm


    ihr habt alle in einem gewissen Sinne Recht.


    Um jedoch -möglichst allgemeinverständlich - die Grundlage für
    eine gemeinsame Basis zu erarbeiten , meine Ansichten/Informationen
    dazu:


    In allen Rohstoff-Märkten, wo die Ablieferung von den saisonalen
    äusseren Bedingungen (Ernte, Wetter,Temperatur) abhängt, überwiegt
    in aller Regel die physikalische Lieferung und der physikalische Bezug.


    Das trifft in erster Linie auf Commodities wie Weizen, Reis, Orangensaft,
    Mais, Gewürze zu. Es handelt sich im wesentlichen um Absicherungs-
    geschäfte der Erzeuger und der der Verbraucher aus der Nahrungsmittel-
    Weiterverarbeitung. Tatsächlich ist hier der vom Gesamtvolumen rein
    finanziell abgewickelte Teil gering, zumeist unter 5%.


    Ziemlich gleichartig verhält es sich mit allen Vieh-und Fleisch-Rohstoff-
    Geschäften, hier ist der rein finanziell abgewickelte nur unwesentlich höher .


    Bei Energie-Produkten ist der rein finanziell abgewickelte Teil saisonal
    und marktabhängig. Der Herbst, aber auch volatile Märkte fördern den spekulativen Anteil. Mir ist aber nicht bekannt, das der spekulative
    Anteil je oberhalb von 20% des Gesamtmarktes gelegen hätte.


    Gleiches gilt für die Basis-Metalle.


    Kommt es jedoch zu Gold und Silber, besteht der überwiegende
    Anteil aus dem spekulativen Bereich, welcher selbstverständlich
    die rein finanzielle Abwicklung bevorzugt.


    -*-*-*-


    Einmal davon abgesehen, dass ein hoher spekulativer Anteil der
    ursprünglichen Idee und Absicht für solchen Handel entgegenlaufen:
    - Absicherung der Erzeuger, passable Verkaufspreise vorab zu
    sichern.
    - Absicherung der Verbraucher /Weiterverarbeiter der Rohstoffe,
    günstige/annehmbare Einkaufspreise zu sichern.


    Zumeist wird bei den Erzeugern und Verbrauchern auch
    nur eine teilweise Absicherung/Versicherung vorgenommen.


    Steigt der spekulative Anteil im Markt, führt das naturgemäss
    auch zu erhöhter Preis-Volatilität, denn Spekulation liebt
    das schnelle Auf und Ab der Preise. Die Absicht der
    Erzeuger und Verbraucher, durch die Absicherung möglichst
    stabile Preise zu bekommen , wird dadurch unterlaufen.


    -*-*-*-


    Ab einer gewissen Grösse kann der spekulative Anteil dann
    zur Instabilität des Marktes und zur Krise führen.
    Dass im Bereich von Gold und Silber das Verhältnis bereits weit
    jenseits von Gut und Böse ist, und jederzeit - bedingt durch ein
    unerwartetes Ereignis - nicht nur zur Preisexplosion, sondern
    sogar zum finanziellen Systemrisiko beitragen kann, muss
    ich Butler, GATA etc. uneingeschränkt zustimmen.


    Germoney

    As a general rule, it is foolish to do just what other people are doing,
    because there are almost sure to be too many people doing the same thing.
    William Stanley Jevons (1835-1882)

    Hallo,


    hätt´ich echt nicht gedacht, daß der Thread mal auf ein so hohes Niveau steigt. Alle Achtung, weiter so !


    Der Weltuntergang; der Kollaps des Finanzsystems; der Tag, an dem wir alle wieder auf die Bäume steigen usw. usw. kann ja ruhig noch etwas warten .... Oder ?


    Grüße
    cabrito

    Quelle: The Times of India, MONDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2004 10:41:20 PM

    NEW DELHI: On the back of a 15 per cent increase in gold imports in the first half, MMTC Ltd said it was hopeful of ending the fiscal with about 20 per cent rise to 130 metric tonnes.


    "We have seen a reasonable growth of about 15 per cent in the first six months of the current fiscal. With this pace and major buying season, we hope to register about 20 per cent growth to 120-130 metric tonnes," S D Kapoor, chairman and managing director, MMTC Ltd, told reporters.


    He said the country’s total import of gold should go up to 880 metric tonnes, a 10 per cent rise from last year. The chairman and managing director said the company’s iron ore exports had witnessed a growth of 6 to 7 per cent to six million tonnes and would close the year with 12 million tonnes.


    Noting that some iron exports were needed from the country, he said some of deposits were found in areas like Goa where there was no domestic consumption and transporting it was also a costly affair.

    die wichtigsten Aussagen:

    • 15% Steigerung der Goldimporte in den ersten 6 Monaten, MMTC hofft bis zum Ende vom Fiskaljahr dies auf 20 % auf 130 to zu steigern.
    • Der Gold-Gesamtimport könnte auf 880 to steigen, einem 10%igen Anstieg zum letzten Jahr.

    October 18 - Gold $415.80 down $2.60 - Silver $6.95 down 13 cents


    "Even The Groundhog Is Bored With This BS"


    Champions aren't made in gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them: A desire, a dream, a vision. They have to have last-minute stamina, they have to be a little faster, they have to have the skill and the will. But the will must be stronger than the skill...Muhammad Ali


    Hi Bill:
    Even the groundhog is bored with this BS.


    One word: AAARGH!!!! The PMs markets and others are so obviously fixed, only the intentionally compromised refuse to recognize it. But we just belabor the point while the authorities do NOTHING. When they finally go off, gold/silver will be like nothing ever experienced imo, and we surely deserve it after being serially abused for years, just for the politically incorrect desire to protect ourselves from the thieving, lying bankster cabal. Keep giving 'em hell in your column. These scum are beyond corrupt and deserve as much scorn and derision as can be publicly heaped on their sorry, corrupted carcasses.
    Tom K


    (One of many emails sent my way today with a similar tone)


    Not much else to talk about when it comes to gold Tom. The farce continues. The dollar . . . oil . . . nothing matters when it comes to this crooked market. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase were seen loading up on February 400 puts this morning on the early firmness. That will give you some idea what The Gold Cartel has in mind. For years I have noted how the cabal USES the dollar action for their gold trading scheme. Cap, cap, cap on dollar weakness; let the specs pile in. Then, when the dollar strengthens, they attack with full fury, bringing the locals in with them on the short side and go all out to puke the spec longs out. This type of obnoxious repetitive trading pattern is how Gold Groundhog Day came into being.


    Goldman and JP also bought November 675 silver puts early on, which expire shortly. For the second day in a row it was time to turn off the computer before the first hour of gold trading was over with as it was clear, and par for the course, The Gold Cartel was not going to allow gold to take off above $420. The dollar had taken out 87 and the euro was up 50+ and still, the bums wouldn’t let gold above $420. They are THAT petrified of the ramifications of such an occurrence. Of course $420 is not really the big deal for them. It is $430. However, they have decided to make a stand at $420 and that message is out to all their allies. Their fear is if this key resistance is violated decisively, it could spook other shorts into some panic covering and leave the market vulnerable to an unexpected event.


    The cabal’s defense of $430 is obvious to all veteran gold watchers. There is no telling what the price could do if that key level is taken out convincingly. The battle for $420 to $430 is the key to understanding the gold market itself. The establishment says the central banks have 28,000 to 29,000 tonnes of central bank gold in their vaults. The GATA camp, using three independent methodologies, says there are only 16,000 tonnes left, maybe less. The difference between the two assessments is central bank gold surreptitiously fed into the market to suppress the price. It is the essence of GATA’s findings and argument that the gold world establishment not only has it all wrong, they are complicit in keeping this information from the investing public.


    Supporting GATA’s contentions are the gold derivative numbers at the BIS which have increased over the past couple of years instead of contracting as gold producers reduced their forward sale positions. These gold derivatives therefore have to be tied to this clandestine central/bullion bank gold lending, or to the short side of the market. As such, a fair amount of them are exposed should the price of gold take off with most everyone citing $430 as a trigger point. You would think the gold industry would want to know everything GATA has come up with because the ramifications of our findings are extraordinarily bullish. Instead, they refuse to engage us or comment on the blatant contradictions we have found.


    This lack of professionalism on their part is an outrage, especially for gold shareholders, because the fair price of gold today is around $750 based on inflation measures, the price of oil, etc. The difference in the prices of the gold shares you own is like night and day. All GATA can do is press on and gradually gain allies as we have done over the years – allies such as the Russian Central Bank and Sprott Asset Management.


    The dollar fell though key support this morning at 87. Gold popped to $419.90 (AGAIN) when The Gold Cartel said "NO MAS." That was it for the day and, like always, gold made its highs for the day before the first hour of trading was up. By the end of the day the dollar closed at 87.15, down .07, while the euro finished at 124.94, up .22, after making a high of 125.33.


    The gold open interest rose 3680 contracts on Friday to 299,881, as the specs continue to pour in and The Gold Cartel sells to them. The silver open interest rose 525 contracts to 108,659. Silver was weak all session long as the trade is eyeing the COT numbers and drooling over a monstrous spec washout, the kind which has occurred so many times over the past decade.


    Crude oil, after reaching $55.33 per barrel overnight, fell to $53.24 by the end of the day's trading.

    The John Brimelow Report


    A message from Shanghai?


    Monday, October 18, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.42, PM $6.83, with world gold at $418.15 and $419.15. Ample, and adequate, for legal imports. This somewhat understates India’s access to world gold this morning, as the rupee was significantly stronger in the middle of the day: it is being bolstered by favorable capital flows.


    MMTC, the Indian para-statal minerals importing arm, said today it hoped to import 130 tonnes of gold this year, up 20%, and thought the country as a whole might import 880 tonnes, up 10%. Since MMTC imports were only up 15% at the interim, this implies an acceleration. The world’s biggest gold importer is creating a major problem for the Bears.


    Premiums from the Gulf, derived from Standard-London’s website, appear to be indicative of on-going physical demand.


    Shanghai, on the other hand, is showing sharply increased discounts, in the $2-$3 range. Why China should show these discounts, in contrast to everywhere else in the world including eastern Asia, is an interesting question. The Chinese Central Bank is reported to be the largest single factor on the Shanghai Exchange. Increasingly the impression is forming that this discount is a comment on where the Washington/Peking axis wants gold to be, as much as anything else. How domestic demand is managed remains obscure.


    TOCOM ducked. Volume fell 16% to equal only 13,792 Comex lots; open interest was static (+231 Comex); the active contract closed up 2 yen and world gold went out 25c above NY. (NY on Friday traded 48,110 contracts; open interest rose 3,690 lots.)


    That someone has a deep objection to gold over $420 is common cause amongst commentators. ScotiaMocatta said of Friday in NY


    "The metal seemed to run into a brick wall in front of 421.50, as even a


    EURO of 1.25 could not help gold’s cause. The metal then backed off on end of week position squaring, finally finishing 418.60/419.10."


    Standard London observed:


    "Despite an increasingly strong oil price, firming Euro, notable Japanese buying interest in Asia followed by a wave of investment bank bids in Europe, the market remained capped at $420.00."


    The UBS version was


    "Gold hit highs above $421.00 but ran into good selling from a selection of customer types"


    Refco Research, prudently smelling the coffee, sold its long Dec gold – bought at $414.20 with a $428 objective – on the opening on Monday.


    This perception being valid was, of course, borne out by the open interest data. An 11.5 tonne (3,690 contract) open interest increase could only supply a 60c gain to gold.


    Consequently it appears that gold is sandwiched between broad-based buying interest, and selling interest which although strong, is probably fairly narrow.


    JB


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The DOW rallied late, as is its custom, after being down over 60 points. It finished at 9956, up 23, while the DOG gained 25 to 1937.


    Just as gold is not allowed to go above $420 for now, the DOW is never allowed to be hit hard, which might panic the public about staying invested. It has been this way all year long. Whenever the DOW is about to tank, it miraculously turns right around, either in a given day or after a few days of sustained losses. It constantly does so without any news which could be considered significantly constructive.


    Can anyone give an explanation other than one expected from the GATA camp why the US stock market rallies late in the day so often and gold makes its highs in the first 20 minutes to one hour – over and over and over?


    Can anyone offer and explanation other than one expected from the GATA camp why gold has failed to follow the dollar weakness the past two days and not been allowed to close above $420?


    Unfriendly dollar news:


    WASHINGTON, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The pace of foreign investment in U.S. assets slowed only marginally in August, according to a Treasury Department report released on Monday.


    Net inflows of capital totaled $59.0 billion in August, down from the revised $63.1 billion in July. Previously, July net inflows had been reported at $64.0 billion.


    Purchases of net domestic securities, a narrower measure that excludes transactions between U.S. residents and foreigners in foreign stocks and bonds, dipped to $60.2 billion in August from a revised $79.2 billion in July.


    Foreigners were net sellers of U.S. stocks in August, according to the report, selling a net $2.1 billion in stocks in August, a reversal of the net purchases of $9.8 billion in July. Foreign investors have been net sellers U.S. stocks in four of first eight months of 2004.


    Interest in U.S. government bonds and notes also waned. Foreigners bought a net $14.6 billion in August, down from $22.4 billion in July and the lowest monthly total since October 2003, when net buys amounted to only $11.8 billion.


    Market participants watch the Treasury International Capital Data for signs of foreigners' appetite for U.S. assets.


    -END-


    More bad news:


    NEW YORK, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. technology sector suffered another round of widespread layoffs during the third quarter, with computer firms slashing jobs most aggressively, a report said on Monday.


    "High-tech job cuts are on the way up as the end of the year approaches," said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "Behind this trend is the fact that technology companies have virtually no pricing power,"


    Job cuts in technology jumped 60 percent between July and September to 54,701, compared with 34,213 layoffs in the second quarter. Computer companies alone saw job cuts jump 127 percent, to 30,624.


    Manufacturers in the sector are having trouble making money since they have been forced to lower prices in order to attract consumers, Challenger said. So they end up firing workers in order to maintain healthy profit margins.


    Worse yet, the growing number of layoffs is not being countered by any move to hire, Challenger added.


    -END-

    Late last night:


    The King Report
    M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
    Monday Oct. 18, 2004 – Issue 3018 "Independent View of the News"


    August PPI rose only 0.1% because BLS has energy prices down 0.9% for the month due to a sharp drop in the last week of August. This violates the BLS pattern of sampling for energy prices between the 10th and 14th of the month. Prior to August, there have been several months were energy prices slumped early in the month and soared later. But the price increases never showed up due to the 10th – 14th sampling pattern. Now all of a sudden the BLS samples during the last week of August when there has been a sharp decline. We’d love to hear the ‘official’ explanation.


    Over the past 3.5 months (since Q2 ended on 6/30), oil is +50%; heating oil is +54%; gasoline is +24% and natural gas is +6.5%. But the increases have not shown up in PPI or CPI.


    Ford’s debt of $108B is almost at junk status, and its sales are shrinking. Both GM and Ford will suffer further because higher steel prices have worked their way through the system. Suppliers will no longer eat the increases…Both GM and Ford have been making money via their finance operations. GM’s recent earnings of $440m were derived entirely from GMAC’s $656m in earnings. On Tuesday, Ford will report. Bloomberg’s David Pauly notes, "In the first half of 2004, Ford Motor Credit Co.'s business was subsidized by Ford auto to the tune of $1.67 billion in what Ford Credit calls ``interest supplements and other support costs.'' The finance unit's profit for the period was $1.59 billion." With the finance bubble threatening to burst, where will GM and Ford turn for profits? Who will first seek the bailout?


    Al (What, me worry?) Greenspan says soaring oil prices don’t concern him because the global economy will adjust to higher prices by boosting exploration and increasing fuel efficiency. "Road hog!"


    -END-


    GATA’s Mike Bolser with an important finding:


    Hi Reg:
    Much has been made by Richard Russell and others regarding the odd rise of the DOW transport index (DTX) at a time of skyrocketing fuel prices and a flat DOW.


    I normalized the DTX historical data (Placed on the right axis now with the DOW), inserted a 30-day moving average (Blue) and compared the Repo Pool's red 30-day moving average with the DTX.






    You be the judge if there are similar patterns in the moving average of the Repo Pool and the DTX. Indeed, examine the slight lag in the pool's 30-day ma and the DTX ma in December, however today with a far larger and more robust pool size the reaction time between the pool and the DTX is now without delay.


    I think this may explain why the DTX is rising at a time when by all logic it should be falling.
    Best,
    Mike


    PS: Mike has not been missing in action. He has his own website: http://www.interventionalanalysis.com.


    Chuck checked in on Saturday:


    I thought I would send this to both of my friends. I have attached the chart of Marsh McLennan and its reaction this week. I have always considered MMC to be a stodgy insurance stock above board, etc. Look at the tremendously low volatility over the past few years and there is no warning of the crash. Not only that, this news although bad shouldn't have the effect that it had. Now, if you have time, look at the other financial charts-C, JPM, MER, GS, and the like. They have similar patterns the past few months-just a small rally with a turning down pattern.




    Now look at the dollar chart that I am going to send you. It is possible that if the financials collapse, the dollar might rise but the greenback also has a very ugly look to it and these scandals might finally break the back of the rigged corruption that has given our markets the look of supreme serenity.


    The proverbial cat is coming out of the bag, and soon, it will be "every man to his own house." Judges They are going to have to build new and larger jails for the white crimers.


    The other thing is that financials today comprise about 25% or more of the averages. That's even higher than the high techs before their collapse.


    Isn't it interesting that the two financial companies so far FNM and AIG that have been caught have fine reputations in the mainstream press. Who would have thunk it. SOON!
    Chuck


    I brought ENRON to Chuck’s attention and he came back with:


    True:


    But I think the most blaring point is how a stock with such low volatility could plunge on such news. Enron was know as a gambler and had much higher volatility. What this probably means is that there is a large fissure in the financial stocks and since the other charts have the same look as MMC, we might conclude that this the trumpet blare. I always assume that everyone is in bed with each other since it has been such an obvious collusion. If so, we should see some other cracks soon.


    ***


    The significance of what the ever-so-important JOHN BRIMELOW has been pointing out to Café members for the entire major gold up move kicks in even more - as SOARING gold demand is The Gold Cartel’s worst nightmare:


    THE DAILY STAR (India)


    October 17


    Gold glides to all time high
    Reaches Tk 10,000 a bhori
    Sarwar A Chowdhury


    Gold price yesterday hit all time high at Tk 10,000 a bhori (11.66 grams) in the local market, showing an increase trend of Tk 1,000 each year.


    Industry people attribute the price hike mainly to international price rise coupled with the rising domestic demand.


    -END-


    Input keeps pouring into The Café from all over the world why the gold price eventually IS going to soar – from an Aussie Café member:


    Inflation masking?


    Dear Bill
    It often escapes the attention of busy mere males (and females) but there are lots of ways of masking inflation, particularly when official published statistics lack important background data.


    The corporate sector is often fully complicit in this masking but can claim an ‘out‘ through the vagaries of ‘innovative marketing‘. For instance: in competitive markets manufacturers often reduce the weight or measure of a product to alleviate the necessity of a price rise. It is commonplace here in Australia to find a 250 gram product reduced to 230 or even 200 grams but still sold at the same price in the shops (after a few weeks 'on special'). The practice cuts across most products and has been on the increase of late, particularly when related to products derived from raw commodities.


    Other ‘innovative’ techniques used by the conglomerates to ‘sell’ more product include increasing the diameter of the nozzle on a tube of toothpaste or deodorant to induce faster usage. Examples are numerous but most people are just too busy to notice.


    I would be interested in comments from other café readers in other markets/countries.


    Keep up the good fight – your day is drawing closer.
    Martin Hastings
    M18105@westnet.com.au


    There are four people in the mainstream investment world who have EARNED the esteem of that world even though they are, for the most part, of a contrarian nature and are known to take on the prevailing views of the establishment/Wall Street. I am speaking of Richard Russell, Robert Prechter, Bill Fleckenstein and James Grant. They have earned their kudos and have basked in them many times over. They are for the most part well deserved. Each has earned distinction in the public investing domain for valid reasons. Many Café members subscribe to one or more of their services.


    However, I take exception with ALL of them regarding what the gold market is really all about, and their public pontifications on such. All of them refuse to acknowledge the obvious; that the gold market is manipulated and the price has been artificially suppressed by a Gold Cartel, not unlike the rigging of prices in the insurance, oil, diamond, copper, vitamin, graphite electrode, citric acid and lysine businesses.


    They will tell you they don’t believe bullion banking institutions in the establishment conspired to rig the gold price this past decade. Although, I don’t think even they will go so far as Dennis Gartman’s inane quote of September 14, 2004: "Conspiracies rarely exist." What is annoying is none of them will deal with the specific evidence and facts GATA has assembled which reveal exactly what The Gold Cartel has done and how they have done it. In this regard, they ALL go silent, just like the gold market establishment does. Not even the tribute the Russian Central Bank sent GATA’s way by mentioning us in their stunning presentation at the LBMA Conference in London on June 4, 2004 dents the way these folks think. You would think the fact the Russians went out of their way to send us an English translation of Deputy Chairman Oleg V. Mozhaiskov’s keynote address, and that Mozhaiskov covered some of GATA’s key points (regarding the derivatives situation, etc.), would make some sort of impact. Nope. Nada.

    The only way I can explain this conundrum:


    *The Not Invented Here Syndrome is alive and well as far as these gentlemen are concerned.


    *While they speak their own minds and often purvey contrarian views, they are very establishment oriented and don’t want to risk alienation from the establishment by validating GATA, whose name is mostly not allowed to even be mentioned by the US financial market press (not once in 6 years by the WSJ, Washington Post, Bloomberg and Barron’s).


    *Too much work. In addition, the validation of the proof of the price-fixing requires a great deal of space, time and effort and is not easy to do with sound bite commentary.


    Taking all of this into account, the reporting on what the gold market is all about these days is laughable. Gold may be the worst reported-on market in history. For example, the esteemed Richard Russell’s comments on the gold action Friday defy the common sense of Café members who know the real score. He wrote:


    I want to write something about gold now. Here's the Dollar Index today breaking to its lowest level since last March. And what does gold do? Nothing. Why? What's going on?


    People aren't looking at gold correctly. Gold is eternal money. Gold is the only money not a product of debt. Gold is pure intrinsic wealth. But when it comes to trading, as long as traders and speculators can make money buying and selling dollars or euros which pay interest, why should they speculate in pure direction by buying or selling gold. The answer is they shouldn't -- and they won't.


    Wealthy investors don't buy gold because they believe gold will move higher. Even if gold moves higher these people aren't going to sell their gold. Wealthy people hold their gold until they're near death, and then they'll pass it on to their kids and their loved ones. Gold is wealth, paper money is a unit of exchange. Paper money does not hold its value.


    Investors who have held gold for decades have learned this about gold. Gold can sit still for months, even years, and then it may make a huge move in a matter of months. And then it sits for more months or even years -- before making its next move.


    In the 1970s gold sat on its fanny for years. Then in 1976 gold started up, and during 1978 and 1979 gold exploded higher. Following the early-1980 peak of 850, gold went into a bear market that lasted to July 1999, at which time gold hit a final low of 256. Gold hit a second n bottom in March of 2001 at a price of 257. From March of 2001 to March of 2004 gold rose from 257 to 436, a rise of 70%. Which is roughly where we are now.


    So if you're buying gold here for a quick profit, forget it. You're buying for the wrong reasons. But if you're buying gold as a store of value, as pure wealth, that makes sense. You may sit with your gold for six months, a year, five years. Get used to it. At the end of five years your gold will still be wealth. The stock market may have collapsed, the dollar may be in smithereens, your house may have been destroyed by termites, your spouse may have left you -- but your gold will still be wealth.


    Gold stocks are another story. Gold stocks are stocks. Many are leveraged vehicles. If the price of gold goes up, the mines' costs will stay roughly the same, but the profits of the mines will surge. So when you buy a gold stock, you're buying a different animal. Gold is eternal wealth. A gold stock is a speculation on that stock rising exponentially IF gold goes higher.


    -END-


    "What's going on?" Are you kidding me? Good grief!


    On a different note, this Robert Prechter gold commentary doesn’t cut it either. Years ago he said something like if gold closed above $376, it would invalidate his analysis and he would turn very bullish. Then, I think his stop out point rose a bit to $409 or so? Ah, here is a bit on this – from John Brimelow’s twin brother:


    Another bear digs in -- deep
    By Peter Brimelow, CBS.MarketWatch.com
    Last Update: 12:42 AM ET Oct. 22, 2003


    ………But Prechter does say that there's something odd about this market breakdown: the "incredibly long time" it's taken for the bears to come home to roost:


    "Three hundred years of stock market data show nothing else like it. Extreme technical conditions that used to be reconciled in weeks have taken months, and those that used to take months have taken years."


    Accordingly, he still allows as how the Dow might well get above 10,000.


    "So the specific resolution of this environment remains open," he writes, "but the environment itself remains certain."


    Something of the same is presumably going on with Prechter's gold thinking. He's long argued, breaking with his former gold bug allies, that gold is still in a primary bear market. Although, after it's over, he does expect an ultimate gold Gotterdammerung, with paper money becoming worthless. (See my Aug. 25 column).


    However, Prechter has also long said that he would concede gold was in a primary bull market if gold rose above a certain point.


    When I last checked, this certain point was around $380. But recently he's been saying he "will be comfortable" with his bearish interpretation of gold if the current rally "ends somewhere between here and the low 400s."


    Hmmm.


    -END-


    "Odd" Mr. Prechter? Not at all. Not when you know what The Working Group on Financial Markets (PPT) has been up to. Not at all odd. It’s now A YEAR since your commentary and still nothing has changed.


    With all due respect to the legendary Robert Prechter, he and I have spoken at conferences in New Orleans and Georgia for five years and he told attendees to be out of gold at every one of those conferences. The attendees all missed the gold bull market of the last three years if they went along with his analysis. Some of his latest below. Now, I am not trying to disparage either of these legendaries on their acumen, JUST on their pigheadedness about the real gold market story.


    From Mr. Prechter’s latest:


    An Interview by Chris Oliver, Money Editor, The South China Post


    Q: Can the Federal Reserve prevent deflation?


    A: No. We have a huge bond market of $30 trillion, which is debt already created. If bond investors came to believe that the Fed would begin printing money and throwing it around, what would they do? They would sell every bond they have got, which would lead to a decrease in the supply of credit because bond prices would fall and interest rates would rise. So there aren’t any alternatives to deflation.


    Q: What will be the outcome of deflation?


    A: The ultimate result is going to be a worldwide depression. There were deep depressions in the 1790s, the 1840s and the 1930s, and I think the next one is already underway. It started in 2001. We’ve had one or two every century, and we are headed into one now.


    Q: Gold bugs say we are in an inflationary era and that this is backed by the rapid rise in the price of the yellow metal from $250 an ounce in 2001 to above $400 recently.


    A: They didn’t say it at the low in February 2001, when gold was a buy at $250. The fundamentals were all bearish then, and even gold mines were hedging for further decline, which never came. Fundamentalist arguments don’t get you in at a bottom or out at a top. They often set traps so you’ll do the wrong thing.


    Q: But doesn’t the gold rally predict inflation?


    A: Think about this: Gold is trading exactly where it was in 1996 despite massive credit inflation over the past eight years. Why is that? I think the gold market understands the difference between credit inflation and currency inflation. A reversal in credit expansion . which is inevitable, will crush prices for everything, and the gold market knows it. The gold bugs. theory is that an increasing money, actually credit , supply should be bullish for gold and silver. But it hasn’t been bullish for 24 years, so why is it bullish now? Look, I might be wrong on my current outlook for gold. In 1995, in At the Crest, I called for the bear market to end about New Year’s Day of 2001, and it ended that February. So I’m somewhat conflicted. But that doesn’t mean that the bull’s arguments are any good. We have heard them at every gold top since 1980 and opposite arguments at the lows. People have a psychological imperative to come up with reasons to be bullish at tops and bearish at bottoms. Market analysis is a subtle and difficult craft. You can’t just look out your window and assume the obvious. That’s not to say the obvious never happens, but when it does, it’s luck.


    Q: Many contrarian writers are at odds with your views on gold and deflation. How do you account for the discrepancy?


    A: They believe that the 1970s will repeat. People in the early 1930s initially thought the .teens would repeat, but they didn’t. Many commodities have collapsed 30%-50% this year. Does that sound like runaway inflation to you?


    Q; Despite your bearish outlook on metals, you still believe investors should own them?


    A: In 1993 when silver got down to $3.50 an ounce, I said to go out and buy bags of silver as a long term insurance policy against the collapse of the banking system. In February 2001 at the bottom for gold, I put out a bullish analysis on it. Sure, you should buy the metals, when the time is right. Right now I think there’s a lot more money to be made being short the stock market.


    -END-


    From ABN AMRO (Australia) today:


    Gold a beacon in the darkness!


    Gold has firmed through the year in US$ terms, but we believe that more of the moving parts for gold support are turning positive and we remain firm bulls on the outlook for gold into 2005.


    BOE US$ Index Gold bullion - inverted (US$/oz - RHS)


    Source: ABN AMRO, Datastream


    So if, like us, you think that the USD is going to struggle in 2005 and further weakness is to be seen, then gold is the place to be. Our bullish gold argument is not just dollar-related; indeed a number of issues lend weight to the argument:


    Price elasticity. Demand is returning following the rise in the gold price. consumers are now more comfortable with US$400+/oz price.


    Gold is being viewed as a platinum substitute. Platinum jewellery had a surge in popularity, but with the price at more than US$800/oz gold is taking back some of the market, with white gold becoming a popular substitute for platinum.


    Gold remains popular as a store of wealth during times of geopolitical instability. Rather than diminishing, global terrorism appears to be moving from localised to more diffuse.


    Central bank sales remain limited, with the reinstatement of the Washington accord to cap sales at 2500t and potential for the Asian central banks to increase gold reserves.


    Production constraints (reduction). South African production has been under severe pressure because of the strong rand and mine development has been limited. Newmont forecasts a decline in its production from 7.4Moz in 2003 to 6.75-7.0Moz in 2004, and potentially lower in 2005/06.


    Producer hedging remains unpopular with US investors and many boards, particularly in light of the issues faced by Sons of Gwalia earlier this year.


    The season of demand is fast approaching. Chinese new year typically represents a period of solid demand, which could be augmented by the growing popularity (and accessibility) of gold purchases in mainland China


    Potential for another oil price shock (or at least high oil-price-induced inflation). Weather-induced production curtailments are not predictable, but are generally recoverable. Specific acts of sabotage on the global supply of oil are arguably less predictable, with an indefinite period of outage, and the resulting market nervousness continues to exaggerate news flow.


    -END-


    A heads-up for interested Café members:


    I did a video interview at the TORONTO Resource Investment Conference, which can be viewed at:


    http://www.smartstox.com/interviews/gata4.html


    -END-


    London’s Peter Hambro received some nice press. Good to see:


    Peter Hambro: He's never been to Harrow, he can carve a ham and he's struck gold in Russia


    After 40 years in the City, the mining entrepreneur and scion of the Hambro banking dynasty has a tale or two to tell Jason Nissé
    http://news.independent.co.uk/…es/story.jsp?story=572856


    -END-


    GATA’s Chris Powell’s doing:


    Hi Bill Murphy
    Good Morning Bill Re: Harmony/Goldfields Nice move, you got the news before it showed anywhere else. It showed as a breaking news item on comedy channel (aka CNBC) at 7:45am UK time this morning, but they put the offer at 1.25 new Harmony shares for 1 Goldfields share. This is incorrect. I attach a copy of the official Harmony announcement. As I am sure you know there is a lot of boilerplate stuff goes in these announcements, but the offer is based on respective share prices as at last Thursday\'s (14 Oct) close. Harmony closed at 84.41 SAR that day, which makes the offer for Goldfields shares worth 107.62 SAR, or $16.76 per share. However, Harmony shares fell 3% in US trading on Friday.
    Best wishes Ian


    The significance to me here is the Russian connection. They want as much gold exposure as they can get. Word came to me late today from my STALKER source (from his London bullion dealer connection) that Russia is expected to enter the gold arena in a very serious way and do some SIZE buying between now and year-end. That is a big plus, knowing what we know about the Chinese too. Let them take cheap bullion from the dummy Western central bankers and the crooks who are digging themselves into a big hole.


    My most substantial holding, Golden Star Resources ($4.84, down 36 cents), was clocked today and continues to trade poorly. Seems panic set in that GSS will attempt to take over IamGold once more as a result of the Harmony/Goldfields development. The GSS takeover attempt was the main reason its share price began to act so poorly these past many months. "Not again," investors were thinking this morning. The facts:


    *Golden Star’s "standstill agreement" prohibits them from doing so for next couple of years since they walked away from their bid.


    *The reverse is more likely. IamGold, whose share price is very elevated vis-à-vis GSS as a result of the Goldfields bid, could go after Golden Star, especially if new funds come their way.


    This is becoming more than aggravating. However, Golden Star should regroup and take off from here and become a leader again on the next gold share tear to the upside.


    The gold shares were tagged as the XAU fell 1.80 to 98.39 and the HUI sank 6.11 to 221.36, but well off its lows of 218.98.


    Short-term the outlook is extremely bleak for the price of gold and silver over the next couple of weeks. The specs are EXTREMELY vulnerable to the crooks because of the enormous spec long positions. Gold is a dead duck for now unless we have some sort of extraordinary event which blind-sides the creeps and they are blown out of the water when they least expect it.


    Which is the main reason I won’t step aside - a point I cannot stress enough as it relates to recent MIDAS commentary. The downside in gold is probably $20 to $30 from here. The upside is $300/$400+. This is why I don’t mess around with getting in and out of gold and the shares at these levels. Rarely will investors see the opportunity which lies ahead, an opportunity with SO MUCH GATA evidence to support this line of reasoning.


    Sure we know The Gold Cartel is going all out to prevent gold from moving higher, wants to kill it again, and the odds are in their favor. However, we also know this is just how gold will look before the price goes berserk as the crooks loose their decade-long grip on this way undervalued market. A Commercial Signal Failure is coming, whether it is on this open interest build-up, or on the next one.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS

    Appendix


    A change of pace:


    Forget Unemployment, Think! By R.W. Steele© of PRE PAK PRECIOUS METALS


    Am I the only one that gets tired of hearing all the whimpering about jobs, labor, unemployment and out-sourcing? It is a real pain.


    It all starts in our modified slave system called school. Most teachers teach us how to work for someone else because they themselves don’t seem to understand that this country has actually thousands and thousands of opportunities that have nothing to do with working for someone else. It is almost a joke if it weren’t so serious. If you want to be an engineer, school is great. The key word is "want". The information in school is excellent but do not let it program you to work for someone else if you don’t want to.


    Think! You really never have to have a wage or a salary. It is actually better not to get one, but that is another story.


    In 20 minutes I could come up with 20 ways to do something that would pay me enough income to support a family. Do you really understand what this Constitution does for us?


    Think! Stop hiding. We have the absolute right to fail as many times as it takes.


    I could sell oranges or newspapers on a corner, I could sell fire wood on consignment, I could get a commission selling door to door, I could get an option to sell a business, I could teach English to the Spanish, I could teach Spanish to the English, I can learn any subject free at a library, any subject in the world and it is free, I could go (hitch hike if necessary) to any place in the country to do what I want to do, I could buy a piece of real estate for nothing down and resell it, I could start an airline or produce and act in a movie, I could find any kind of a problem and solve it and there are at least 10 problems on every block. There are thousands of boats bobbing at anchor deteriorating right now. See these things as opportunities. Solve one.


    Think! You can live any place and do anything you want. You are free. Do you really know what it means? Use it.


    A young boy was selling books on a corner and was doing extremely well. A man watching him was fascinated by the number of books he sold. He approached the boy and engaged him in conversation and commented that maybe if he went back to school and with his ability he could probably earn $100,000 a year. The boy looked at him and said," I’m making $250,000 now. Would you like to buy a book?"


    Think! What does "Land of Opportunity" mean? Are they just words for other people?


    How can you be lazy if you’re excited? How can you be in a gang or make a habit of drugs or drink when doing something positive makes you feel positive. If you’re black, white, orange, crippled, male or female it makes no difference unless you think it does in your own mind. It makes no difference. "Would you like to buy a book?"


    Think! Let’s have some pride. We have a country that we could make great again. Think!.

    Im SSRI Board von Yahoo fand ich gerade aktuell den nachfolgenden
    Bericht von David Morgan, der zwar schon zwei Jahre alt ist,
    jedoch sich umfassend mit der Situation beim Silber befaßt, was m.E. ganz gut zu den oben diskutierten Fragen paßt.



    Special By David Morgan


    It has been a long time since we've seen a bull market in silver, over two decades. Most investors that follow the precious metals markets are aware of the work gold has done but silver has been disappointing at best. Gold has bottomed around $250. U.S. and is consolidating around the $350 level. Silver on the other hand has poked its head above five dollars only to fall back to around $4.50


    As most analysts know, the demand for silver has exceeded the mine supply for over 13 years now, over a decade. On an average basis the short fall has amounted to about 120 million ounces of silver per year Over the past decade the demand for silver has been about 1 and 1/2 billion ounces above and beyond what we're capable of mining out of the earth.


    This knowledge alone has many investors excited about silver's potential but often they end up disappointed due to silver rally never rally moving much beyond the five dollar U.S. level. There are several reasons for this.


    So let us think about this together , we've had a situation where we've had a supply deficit for well over a decade. Yet price continues to decline or remain the same in spite of this deficit. If we were to take that same situation and apply if to energy or platinum, or palladium or goodness, electricity, you would have exploding prices as we've seen in natural gas and oil. Now, why haven't we seen that in silver


    This is a fundamental question that I've racked my brains over for quite a while, and finally have come to this conclusion. The basic economic principals, always are adhered to, although there can be anomalies for some period of time. You cannot have an asset of any class, be it corn, rice, or automobiles, I don't care what the commodity is, and have a decreasing supply and have the price go down. You cannot have a constant supply, and the demand increasing and the price go down. In the silver market you have a decreasing supply and an increasing demand at the same time, and yet the price adjusted for inflation is probably at the lowest it has ever been.


    Let me stop here for a moment, and explain that many who study monetary history know that silver hit a record low in the great depression of 25 cents per ounce. Right now, today wise investors like Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, George Soros and Lawrence Tish are buying at these levels, but the general investing public ignores silver as an investment ! My point is; silver is probably the buy of a lifetime right here but only the savviest of investors are willing to take a major position at today's low prices. If we adjust silver's price for inflation we too are able to buy silver at an ALL TIME LOW.


    Coming back to basic economic law, knowing that we have a decreasing supply and increasing demand suggests that the price of silver would be going up not down. This implies that some thing is not right in the silver market. What I've learned is , the leasing activity that's been taking place in the bullion banks, has been able to supply silver from above ground stock pile which stood at roughly 2 billion ounces a decade ago, and that silver has been loaned or leased out to the users. The users have taken the silver and used it for all kinds of applications. And that silver is gone. When these banks demand the silver back, there's not going to be silver to be given back to these bullion banks And that's going to cause a huge explosion in the price.


    The situation has lasted for so long, because the way that the future's market works… I'll try to make it simple, it's rather easy to understand. You'll hear all these heads on CNBC, and other market analysts will give you big explanations on why the market went up or down on a given day, or what the interest rate is going to do to the market overall.


    A stock or commodity goes up because there are more buyers than sellers. A stock or commodity goes down because there are more sellers than buyers. So having said that, it implies that there are more sellers than buyers in the silver market.


    Now that seems rather odd, because I just told you a while back, that we've got this huge demand that keeps increasing, and we've got a short fall that has to be made up by above ground supplies. But, if you study the facts, what you will find is that there are huge short positions in the commodities market. The commodities market doesn't care, if it's real silver or paper silver. Most commodities contracts are never, ever taken delivery upon. In other words, 98% of all paper trades that tae place in any commodity, corn, wheat, gold , Silver, platinum, it doesn't matter. It could be anything in th financial market, T-Bonds, T-Bills, any of those markets, about 98%, they are just paper trades. These are speculators going against commercials, or just people in general going against larger entities, and either side is allowed to trade long or short.


    And all of that stuff gets resolved at the end of the month, by a statement,, or when they sell or buy with a statements that's a credit or a debit to their account, in whatever they're trading, and if you are trading in Japan it's going to be in yen, and if you're trading in the US it's going to be in dollars. But what has happened if you look at the silver market on the commodities exchange, is you see a few years back. You had 260 million ounces of silver, and today you see there's 110 million ounces of silver. So what that tells you is that there has been an off-take right off of the Comes silver. That's again goes to the basic core fundamentals that I keep preaching, and that is the overall silver market is getting very skinny as far as what actual physical silver remains.


    To take this to the most extreme conclusion possible possible, I have determined that there will not be a sustained or substantial increase in the price of silver until the physical supply is so small that the industrial users sense the shortage. This is where I wish to build my case further.


    There is less silver available for investment than gold. I am often chastised about this bold statement. So, let us use the most recendt CPM study and see for ourselves. According to CPM Group's Silver Survey 2002. There are approximately 400 million ounces of silver and 2 billion ounces of gold. In fact, this is where I really want to get down and dirty and wake up all those reading this article. If we know, that there is 400 million ounces of silver at the end of 2001 and subtract what silver we know about, we can draw some interesting conclusions.



    This year the estimated deficit for 2002 is 80 million ounces, so this would bring our total to 320 million ounces currently. Now, if we subtract what the greatest investor of our time, Mr. Warren Buffett purchased (130 Million ounces) we are left with 190 million ounces of silver. I also believe that the amount of physical silver on the Comex will remain around 100 million and most of it will not be moving out of the banks that store this metal. If you agree with this premise, then obviously we are left with only 90 million ounces. This is about one year's worth of deficit. This amount is less that what Buffett purchased in 1997. It would take only 450 million dollars to buy this amount of silver. This amount is a mere pittance relative to today's financial system. However, the point of this article is when will silver break out? Obviously , it looks like at the very extreme point, prices could be held back perhaps another year.


    I am on record as stating that I see the breakout occurring this summer, that is summer 2003. I believe that the supply will be small enough for the market to recognize is and prices will begin the upward movement. This could happen earlier if investment demand for silver increased.


    There are other bullish factors as well. The silver mining industry is almost at a standstill. But, of course there are some primary silver miners, but very few of them remain viable. For eample, Sunshine Mines, which mined over 350 million ounces of silver is now out of business. The primary silver producers are unable to make a profit at a $5.00 silver price. Now there are a few silver mines here and there and they are not in North America, where you can mine silver and probably squeak by at $5.00 US. The reason that the price is only hurting the silver primary mines is because most of the silver comes as a by-product. The by-product is from copper mining, zinc mining, lead mining and gold mining. In those the 70% of the silver that is produced out of those other mining activities, those miners look at it in a completely different way, than the way that a primary silver miner would look at it


    If a company is mining copper and they produce silver as a by-product, they look at it as a slight bonus, and they take a credit. If they get X amount of silver out of the ground, and the primary resource is copper, and that is what that are in business to mine, they will sell the silver right on the spot market for whatever it brings regardless of the price. Then they will take that money and apply it to the mining cost of the primary element that they are after, which is copper. That is one of the fundamentals I believe, that has helped to keep the price lower than it's fundamental or its equilibrium price.


    We feel that silver is the most overlooked and undervalued investment available. We have dedicated ourselves to providing out subscribers with leading edge information about the precious metals and practical ways to maximize their investment.


    NOTE: David Morgan subscribes to nearly 100 sources of information, business newspapers, private newsletters, the Silver Institute's work, CPM's studies, GFMS, and a host of others. Any precious metals investor would have to spend many times a subscription price to obtain this much information. We digest the information for our readership. We produce with a balanced approach, that does include our own insights. I truly think we are the only one outside of Ted Butler that is doing this amount of research privately on silver.


    David Morgan has been a private economist for over two decades. His background in engineering with an advanced degree in Economics -Finance gives a unique perspective to the financial markets that pure business majors often miss. He applies the discipline of logic to verif the basis of economic law.

    "So wie die Freiheit bleibt Gold nie lange dort, wo es nicht geschätzt wird."
    J.S.Morill in einer Rede vor dem U.S.-Senat am 28.01.1878.

    Hallo Spieler,


    Ich moechte Mr. Morgan kurz zitieren:


    Zitat

    But, if you study the facts, what you will find is that there are huge short positions in the commodities market. The commodities market doesn't care, if it's real silver or paper silver. Most commodities contracts are never, ever taken delivery upon. In other words, 98% of all paper trades that tae place in any commodity, corn, wheat, gold , Silver, platinum, it doesn't matter. It could be anything in th financial market, T-Bonds, T-Bills, any of those markets, about 98%, they are just paper trades.


    Vieles von dem, was all diese "Extrem-Bullen" ueber Silber sagen, ist sicherlich richtig. Doch interessanterweise vergessen sie regelmaessig, auch die Nachteile eines Silberinvestments anzusprechen. Rosarote Brille beim Leser unterstellt, laesst sich soein Gerede selbstverstaendlich prima verkaufen, doch wo ist die Objektivitaet fuer den aufgeklaerten Investor? Diese vermisse ich leider nur all zu oft.


    Mr. Morgan schreibt im obigen Zitat:

    Zitat

    It could be anything in th financial market, T-Bonds, T-Bills, any of those markets, about 98%, they are just paper trades


    Tja, da frage ich mich aber, wie er die anderen 2% beim Handel von Treasury Bonds bezeichnen wuerde... Festverzinsliche Wertpapiere sind nunmal Finanzkontrakte, die in elektronichem "Papiergeld" gehandelt werden... Er haette sein Beispiel auf die Rohstoffe (Commodities) begrenzt lassen sollen, dann waere es richtig gewesen - doch warum nicht einfach die Aussage auf den gesamten Finanzmarkt erweitern, wenn's doch der Grossteil der Leser ohnehin nicht merkt und man damit die Lage ums Silber vielleicht noch etwas dramatischer beschreiben kann? ;)



    Und noch ein Zitat aus seiner Feder:


    Zitat

    If a company is mining copper and they produce silver as a by-product, they look at it as a slight bonus, and they take a credit. If they get X amount of silver out of the ground, and the primary resource is copper, and that is what that are in business to mine, they will sell the silver right on the spot market for whatever it brings regardless of the price. Then they will take that money and apply it to the mining cost of the primary element that they are after, which is copper. That is one of the fundamentals I believe, that has helped to keep the price lower than it's fundamental or its equilibrium price.


    Also um es in wenige Worte zu fassen: Mr. Morgan sagt, die Tatsache, dass auch solche Minengesellschaften gefoerdertes Silber verkaufen, deren Hauptgeschaeft es eigentlich ist, andere Rohstoffe zu foerdern, haette dazu gefuehrt, dass der Silberpreis tiefer stuende, als er eigentlich stehen muesste...


    Er nimmt sogar das Wort "Equilibrium price" in den Mund, was auf deutsch Gleichgewichtspreis heisst. Der Gleichgewichtspreis, so sagt er, stuende in Wahrheit hoeher und der Hauptgrund, weswegen der Marktpreis unter diesem Gleichgewichtspreis (der sich aus Angebot und Nachfrage ergibt) laege, seien die Minengesellschaften, die die Frechheit besaessen, gefoerdertes Silber am Markt zu verkaufen, obwohl sie es doch gar nicht als Hauptprodukt foerderten. Das ist wirklich eine der peinlichsten Aussagen, die ich lange gelesen habe! Der Gleichgewichtspreis liegt noch immer dort, wo das gesamte Angebot und die gesamte Nachfrage bedient werden.


    Das ist ja so, als ob ich behauptete, dass die Telekom Aktie eigentlich viel hoeher stehen muesste, nur weil es Leute gibt, die sie kaufen koennten, es aber aus irgendwelchen Gruenden nicht tun. Wenn sie es aber taeten, stuende sie auch hoeher, deshalb liegt der Gleichgewichtspreis der Telekom Aktie natuerlich viel hoeher, als der Marktpreis - man koennte fast von Manipulation sprechen... ;) ;) ;)






    Ich kann mir nicht helfen, doch die meisten dieser selbsternannten Gurus, die ihr Geld mit dem Verkauf von Newslettern oder Aehnlichem verdienen, sind weder objektiv, noch faktisch korrekt in Ihren Aeusserungen. Ich komme mir fast vor, wie zu Zeiten des Neuer-Markt Boomes, als jeder Busfahrer "Der Aktionaer" las und die "Kaufen, Kaufen"-Parolen immer munter als die einzige und unumstoessliche Wahrheit genommen wurden. Objektivitaet und kritische Worte waren damals wie heute oft unerwuenscht.




    Gute Nacht Forum (und das meine ich in zweierlei Hinsicht!),


    ghost_god

    Bevor ich es vergesse...


    @ User Schuldenblase:


    Du schuldest dem Forum nach wie vor eine Erklaerung zu den Statements Deines Gurus, die ich widerlegte... Ausser Beleidigungen habe ich von Dir nichts gelesen.


    Wie waer's mit Fakten zu dem, was ich widerlegte?


    Wo wird an der Comex gegen Boersengesetze verstossen?


    Wieso sollten Regulierer eingreifen?




    Bin gespannt, ob Du Dich aus Deiner Schweigsamkeit zum Thema befreist... ;)



    ghost_god

    October 19 - Gold $419.90 up $4.10 - Silver $7.14 up 19 cents


    Gold And Silver In Surprise Surge/Cabal In Serious Trouble?


    "The press is the hired agent of a monied system, and set up for no other purpose than to tell lies where their interests are involved. One can trust nobody and nothing." --Henry Adams


    Gold came in slightly higher this morning as the dollar extended its losses against most major currencies, especially the yen (108.40 on the close). After a slew of US economic reports were released, it traded in a volatile, yet very tight, range above the unchanged mark. Each time the cabal forces tried to knock it down to influence the mega-long specs to pitch their positions, gold popped up 30 to 60 cents. THEN, it TOOK OFF, leaping higher and taking out $420 with a move to $420.40 (without any fluctuation in the dollar).


    After selling off, gold gradually crept its way up, closing near its highs, but not making new ones. What is striking and most important is the change in pattern. Gold Groundhog crawled back in his hole and was not seen all day long. Of significance was gold rallied sharply without any outside influences, charging ahead on its own, while leaving many traders a bit stunned.


    Our floor sources LOVED the buying which showed up in both gold and silver on the rally. Most of the time when gold and silver are bullied by funds, etc., those same sources hate it. Not today. Right off the bat, they liked what was going on and the strong close confirmed their early analysis. Some other notes from our top quality floor sources:


    *Last week some of the cabal types bought the Feb 400 puts and sold silver. They were stuffed. Our guys on the floor went with them last week, but not yesterday, smelling a trap.


    *There has been a good amount of call buying the past week to ten days that is gradually building.


    An eerie message my friend Mahendra sent to his subscribers well before Comex opened:


    "Gold prices will then move in an upward direction from mid Tuesday till wednesday. DURING THESE TWO DAYS a big player will enter the market or big money will shift in metals from either the stock market or oil."


    Why did gold jump today? According to the floor, “Some mysterious buyer showed up


    Something else eerie here, which I will explain tomorrow.


    The battle for $420 gold:


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C4


    The gold open interest rose 2365 contracts to 302,246. It’s the specs and the physical market versus the crooks.


    As well as gold performed, silver was the star of the trading session. It exploded coming out of the box, set back, and then made new highs late in the day. Morgan Stanley’s man is still mega-short and there is a strong possibility he is going to get his head handed to him. The bad news for Morgan Stanley is the entire floor knows how vulnerable their trader is. Should silver take out $7.25, we could see a stampede to the upside as he attempts to cover and the floor tries to bury him.


    The silver open interest moved up another 1169 contracts to 109,828.


    Silver didn’t give the shorts any real chance to cover this morning as it left a 5 cent gap from last night’s close. More often than not, especially today, a gap such as that would have been filled. As such, silver remains explosive:


    A very healthy December silver
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C4


    Not ONE of my colleagues and friends (save Samex CEO Jeff Dahl) expected gold and silver to rally today. Put me in the same camp. Year after year The Gold Cartel has attacked on days like this with gold and silver so vulnerable to spec liquidation. At the same time, I would like to put some consistent and recent MIDAS thoughts back on your front burner:


    10/14 "As these crooks, colleagues of AIG, capped gold during this session, the odds are for a trouncing tomorrow. However, I am still betting against those odds in the near term. The reason is we already know The Gold Cartel will always be up to their old tricks until they are carried out. My guess is that will occur when they least expect it. Surely, they are all systems go at the moment as their market manipulations have worked for so long. However, with collective pressure building and building on them because of the surging oil price, dollar weakness, stock market softness and a stout physical bullion market, they are likely to get caught with their pants down."


    10/15 "What to think here? Sure hard to say. We know what The Gold Cartel wants to do. Can they pull it off? I think not this time (probably the kiss of death for our camp). The reason is the physical market. JB points out the Indians are willing to buy at these levels and they need a lot of gold. Then, we know the Chinese are out there buying in size. Throw in some substantial Arab oil money on top of that and it will make the bad guys' task of burying the specs somewhat difficult."


    10/18 "Sure we know The Gold Cartel is going all out to prevent gold from moving higher, wants to kill it again, and the odds are in their favor. However, we also know this is just how gold will look before the price goes berserk as the crooks loose their decade-long grip on this way undervalued market. A Commercial Signal Failure is coming, whether it is on this open interest build-up, or on the next one."


    The jury is still out on how the battle for $420 will resolve itself. Yet, today’s in your face move up with so many in the gold world expecting gold and silver to be trashed, was a HUGE plus. I still believe we need a substantially higher Comex opening and then a run to break out from here. NO REASON we can’t get one right now.


    Supportive factors which should have blown gold through $430 already:


    *The dollar has taken out key 87 support and completed a massive top. It closed at 89.93, down .22.


    *Crude oil remains above $50 per barrel. It finished the session at $53.29, around last nite’s late finish.


    *A weakening US stock market having to deal with a soft US economy and increasing scandals in and around the Wall Street sewer.


    *A very firm physical market with buyers willing and needing to pay up. These buyers include the Chinese, Russians and Arabs.


    One other positive is how little investor interest there is in the gold and silver markets with prices where they are. The Gold Cartel’s droning down of the precious metals has taken its toll and, of course, set up this extraordinarily bullish situation.


    The Café Sentiment Indicator is only around a 4 or 5. Membership is going fine. However, new trials and hits on the site are around the same as when gold was $120 LOWER. Unreal the lack of excitement over gold and silver emanating from the public domain. Of course, this is very constructive, as massive herd buying is till to come. Gold has been creeping up, only $13 from 19-year highs, and the public could care less.


    The insightful Richard Appel explains to his subscribers some of the reasons behind The Gold Cartel’s success of keeping interest in gold so minimal:


    F I N A N C I A L
    I N S I G H T S

    November 2004 Issue

    Volume X Number XI

    © October 17, 2004



    A commentary on finance, gold
    and international resource companies
    by Dr. Richard S. Appel

    GOLD AND GOLD STOCKS
    APPEAR READY TO SOAR



    ….I digressed, again. A number of unusual events have repeatedly occurred in the gold market for at least the past few years. These go against all of my experience following the gold market, as well as the laws of probability. First, gold has rarely traded higher than $6 on any given day. Each time that it begins a session sharply higher or trades to this level above its previous closing price, a substantial amount of selling has appeared. Bill Murphy (Gold Anti-trust Action Committee, GATA.org) was the first person to note these incredible recurring incidents. I sensed that something was wrong for quite some time prior to his observation, but it was his bringing my attention to it that first stopped me in my tracks.


    He rightly pointed out that this action has helped prevent drawing undue attention to gold after it began its tortuous, rising, bullish path in 2001. Second, often when the great metal was either leaving a base or when it suddenly shot higher, it would meet a wall of selling. The last several days are a good example. Gold, after trading just over $6 above the prior day’s close last Friday, was not only stopped dead in its tracks, but it moved sideways on Monday, only to be whacked on the following day when it gapped down $6, before posting a $7 loss. In the old days, when gold exhibited an explosive break-out or a sharp run-up, the momentum typically followed through for at least several days before a set-back occurred. Now, almost like clock-work whenever gold trades strongly higher selling mounts, and the wind is immediately taken out of its sails.

    The John Brimelow Report


    India: Connolly


    Tuesday, October 19, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.42, PM $7.50, with world gold at $418.15 and $416.90. Very ample for legal imports – this is true for all the cities Reuters reports. The rupee firmed to a 3-month high today because of foreign portfolio inflows: this facilitates gold imports.


    Reuters carries the usual story from India today, citing India bullion dealers moaning about prices. Higher rupee prices certainly will constrain off take and increase scrap supply, especially in the short run. But it is significant that one of the most vociferous complainers noted that


    "…jewellers had bought heavily last week when gold hovered around $414 an ounce"


    which sheds much light of world gold’s refusal to fall below $414.90 in today’s very early morning sell-off attempt.


    India of course generally acts as a stabilizer in the global bullion market, but this role has been accentuated recently. India is an oil-poor country; oil is the largest import item (gold is the second). This creates the situation, as today, that soft oil prices intra-day strengthen the rupee, and improve Indian bids: a paradox western dealers seem yet to grasp.


    TOCOM opened today to find world gold some $4 below Japan’s previous close, $1 of which was due to selling after the Comex close. Although Mitsui-London asserts the public was a buyer, Mitsubishi reports virtually static Member shorts; open interest fell the equivalent of 1,551 Comex lots. The active contract closed down 13 yen and world gold went out $1.40 below the NY close. (NY yesterday traded 38,328 contracts; open interest rose 2,375 lots.)


    In the words of UBS:


    "Yesterday in New York gold ran into decent selling interest around the $420 level from a mixture of profit taking and speculators initiating short positions…triggering speculative selling all the way down to $417.00. Although the metal managed to stagger up to $417.75, this was only a temporary respite and further selling saw the metal base at $416.50 offered where the market closed."


    A view seconded by ScotiaMocatta:


    "Dealers were noted offers pushing the price back to the 418.50 level where it spent some time until locals decided to give up on their existing long positions. The metal gave back further ground, falling to the session low of 416.00/416.50 where it was met by light physical buying."


    Exactly for whom the Dealers are acting for remains mysterious: for the third week running, the ECB announced a sale by one of its captive Central Banks, but the amount (less than 2.5 tonnes) is simply not enough to account for the powerful selling seen around $420.


    On a pleasanter note for gold’s friends, it does appear that UBS was right in sensing short selling yesterday. The explosive $4 surge on the Comex open supports this view: as does the blatant effort to force gold down on ACCESS trade pre TOCOM last night – what kind of seller activates in the thinnest time of gold’s 24-hr day? Reuters quotes "a floor broker" this morning:


    " "I think we saw a big short position in the market cover after we broke back above $419.00/50."."


    Mitsui has been talking for a couple of days about a large buyer of Feb 400 puts.


    Commercially-motivated short selling usually suggests a low in the short-term gold cycle.


    AIG’s Bernard Connolly has produced a mind-numbingly complex discussion of gold with the congenial observation:


    "the sudden change in the Fed’s stance at the end of 2000 began a period in


    which market belief in the omniscience and omnipotence of the authorities has weakened again. PT 10 19In consequence, gold began rising in terms of the major fiat reserve currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF). The current position, signaled by gold price movements, appears to be one in which "something has to give" soon: either central banks around the world succeed in "normalizing" interest rates or their inability to do so becomes more apparent, increasing the attractiveness of gold vis-à-vis fiat currencies."


    JB


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The PPT really took a beating today. With decent quarterly reports last night from IBM and Texas Instruments, the US stock market took off early. Then, with Eliot Spitzer lurking everywhere and having the nerve to want Wall Street be honest in its dealings with the American public, the market took a dive, fearing Spitzer would uncover just how corrupt and anti-mainstream public this crowd really is.


    I am sick of hearing how it is only a few bad apples from executives who show up on CBNC. For crying out loud, countless numbers of industries have been lambasted for the corrupt practices the past three or four years. It seems to never end.


    Course the one which no one can see any corruption in is the bullion dealers in the gold industry, the same dealers who continue to be implicated in scandals in so many other industries. Mark my words on this one. We have a ticking time bomb when it comes to the gold world crooks.


    The DOW, after roaring above 10,000, reversed course and closed near its lows at 9897, down 58. The DOG did finish on its lows, 1921, down 14.


    A lot of pertinent news today:


    18:08 Semi book/bill ratio 0.96 in September vs First Call 0.98
    August was 1.01, revised higher from 1.00. The three month average of bookings fell (10.0%) to $1.36B; billings (5.2%) to $1.42B.


    07:45 UBS chain store sales index (0.2%) in 10/16 week vs +0.5% in prior week
    * * * * *


    08:30 September CPI reported 0.2% vs. consensus 0.2%; ex-Food & Energy reported 0.2% vs. consensus 0.2%
    Prior CPI unrevised at 0.1%; ex-Food & Energy unrevised at 0.1%.
    * * * * *


    (It’s good know energy prices are so tame)


    08:30 Sept. Housing Starts reported 1.898M vs. consensus 1.95M; Building Permits 2.005M vs. consensus 1.95M
    Prior Starts revised to 2.02M from 2M; prior Permits revised to 1.969M from 1.952M.
    * * * *


    08:56 Redbook chain store sales index (0.8%) in October through 10/16 week vs September
    This is unchanged from last week's (0.8%) reading.
    * * * *


    09:00 Bank of Canada raises overnight benchmark rate by 25bp to 2.5%
    * * * * *


    11:06 Brokerage firms leveraged to derivatives trading lower
    We note JPM, particularly, BSC, GS and C are trading lower on unconfirmed speculation that NY AG Spitzer may be focusing on the derivatives market in some sort of regulatory capacity. Unclear as to what type of regulation or scrutiny is being proposed, but that is not stopping the rumor mill, especially in light of the NY Post's report that health insurance may be next.
    * * * * *


    11:27 Financials move lower in sympathy with derivatives speculation
    We note the unconfirmed speculation involving Spitzer and derivatives (see 11:06 comment) has had a negative impact on the financials, as noted by the decline in the BKX index, which has moved to 97.37 from an intraday high of 98.83 as of 10:06 ET. FNM and FRE, also heavily leveraged, have also moved lower.
    * * * * *


    U.S. Insurance Stocks Plunge on Concern About Spitzer Probe


    Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The plunge in U.S. insurance stocks widened to include companies such as UnitedHealth Group Inc. and Humana Inc. on concern New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's investigation of the industry will drag down profits.


    Shares of Marsh & McLennan Cos., the insurance broker sued by Spitzer last week, extended its decline, slumping as much as 10 percent. The New York-based company lost about half its market value in the past four trading sessions. Spitzer accused Marsh of rigging bids and steering clients' business to property and casualty insurers that paid it the most fees.


    MetLife Inc., the second-largest U.S. life insurer, and UnumProvident, the biggest U.S. disability insurer, said they received new subpoenas from Spitzer, raising the possibility that the probe is extending to sales of employee benefits such as life, disability and health insurance.


    ``It's hazardous to touch these stocks right now,'' said Thomas Wille, who oversees the equivalent of $200 million in U.S. stocks at Verwaltungs-und Privat-Bank AG in Zurich. ``Basically the motto is: `If Spitzer is around, sell.' Who needs the aggravation?'' …


    -END-


    Chuck checks in:


    Bill:
    I think that the market is ready to go. We might have an interesting close. I don't think it's going to hold up until the elections.


    It seems as thought the cancer is spreading. Today Cigna dropped sharply, and looking at the charts, I can see the possible beginning of a rolling over of the other financial shares (banks and brokerage houses.) Since the financial stocks now comprise nearly 25% of the S and P averages it is certainly something to monitor closely. Even though there might be a correlation to commodities and some other factors, the primary driver behind gold, in my opinion, is the eventual fracture of the paper system, with its unserviceable debt and derivatives.


    The apparent corruption in the latest scandals is not just an insurance phenomenon. You can be certain of that. If it can occur in a stodgy sector like insurers, then it certainly must be happening in other financial areas where there are more variables. Given the declining employment and the inability to service individual and corporate debt, one can assume that there are currently many desperate attempts secretly going on to keep the game going. And, on deck and batting cleanup is the bubble of bubbles, the insane world-wide real estate market. Because of the ramifications that will touch more people than even the dot-com mania, the real estate demise will be catastrophic.


    Jesus said, "For those who have ears, let them hear." It is apparent that the complex with all of its lies and deceit is now cracking. Out of this will come a distrust in the current financial system that will continue to grow, and a flight into something immutable and out of the reach of the corrupt financial architects (gold) will eventually increase exponentially. Stay the course! Don't be shaken by the near-term manipulating of the gold and financial markets. There is a historic storm just on the horizon, and this event will unfold in plain view not just behind closed doors of the captains of industry. Chuck


    On China and inflation:


    Bill;
    Guy I've known for years [based in London] in the shipping business for 30+ years contacted me yesterday. He was telling me about the state of the nation in his business. Here's [verbatim] a rundown of what's going on 'real time' from his perch in London England - a few highlights:


    -Greek interests just last week paid 125 million on a 'resale' VLCC (tanker), 25 million more than record 100 million set two weeks ago for a brand new ship [newbuild]
    -one year ago the same ship would have sold for approx. 60 million [increases largely attributed to increases in costs of steel - China]
    -3,400 ships on order world wide, yards that build them are booked solid till 2007-2008 [all China related again]
    Sectors [different classes of ships] trading within the Shipping industry:
    Chemicals [transport] starting to Boom
    Reefers [frozen goods] spotty but tightening
    Car Carriers up & building
    Forestry, spotty
    Ferries, spotty
    Handymax - steady under Panamax
    Tankers - Volatile to the point of being dangerous
    Cruise - big orders coming out of Europe
    Engines for ships are in tight supply, prices rising on everything - Volatile as all get out
    (Profiteering), some yards make nothing.....
    When this crashes it will be a lot of high priced floating steel, but ports are congested in UK & LA


    Thought you would find this interesting. Based on this assessment, anyone suggesting China might be slowing down at this point is likely as reliable as the 'clowns' that claim we have no inflation.
    best,
    Rob


    On Chinese gold demand – no clue on this one, yet food for thought:


    Hi Bill.
    In yesterday’s John Brimelow report, he said:


    "Shanghai ... is showing sharply increased [gold] discounts, in the $2-$3 range. Why China should show these discounts, in contrast to everywhere else in the world including eastern Asia, is an interesting question."


    In other words, gold in Shanghai is being sold to the public for roughly $3/oz below the world market price. That seems reasonable to me, because the Chinese authorities, in recent years, have been creating vast quantities of yuan out of thin air, using them to buy
    dollars in the open market, and then using the dollars so acquired to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. Two problems have resulted:


    (1) By creating lots of yuan, they have boosted their domestic money supply, and now domestic prices in China are rising rapidly.


    (2) By accumulating huge dollar balances, stored in the form of T-bonds, they have rendered themselves vulnerable to huge losses when the dollar begins to fall against the yuan, as it eventually must.


    My guess is that the Chinese authorities are attempting to prevent further growth in unwanted dollar balances by using many of the incoming dollars to purchase gold, and that they are reducing the supply of yuan in circulation by turning around and selling the gold to private Chinese citizens. (A Chinese gold dealer pays the Central Bank in yuan when he buys gold from them, thereby removing those yuan from circulation.)


    The reason for the discount, by this hypothesis, is that the Chinese authorities want to take yuan out of circulation at a faster rate than Chinese gold demand will support without the discount. In other words, the discount is a tool which the Chinese central bank is using to
    control the rate at which yuan are taken out of circulation. Just as, when the Federal Reserve wants to take dollars out of circulation in the U.S., they sell T-bonds at a discount (known as interest), so when the Chinese Central Bank wants to take yuan out of circulation, they sell gold at a discount that serves the same purpose. Thus the purpose of the gold discount is to get the Chinese public to take the quantity of gold the Chinese authorities wish to sell.


    If the above hypothesis is correct, then the Shanghai gold discount reflects unadmitted gold purchases by the Chinese Central Bank--purchases that will not show up on their books because the gold in question is being immediately offloaded into private hands.
    Mitchell Jones


    GATA’s message is gradually filtering out there:


    I thought you would enjoy seeing this write up using GATA's findings. It is today's market commentary from a San Rafael commodity trading firm that has been soliciting me for business. Interesting how the GATA story is permeating into various out of the way places.
    Best regards,
    Jim


    10/18 Currently the only short term force holding Gold down is the official central bank selling. The question is "how much do they have that they are willing to sell?" We believe that the widely accepted claim in the amount of 33,000 tonnes is, in fact, not true. We believe that as much as 15,000 tonnes was sold in forward contracts through 2001. This information will soon be updated with the BIS Triennial Survey data in November of this year. It will be interesting to see what turns up – or what doesn’t.


    -END-


    Freeport McMoran:


    10:25 FCX comments on production for Q4 and for 2004
    FCX, the owner of the world's largest gold mine, said Q3 profit fell 40% as copper and gold production declined. They operate the Grasberg mine in Indonesia which is the biggest gold mine and second biggest copper mine in the world. Output this year will be 1B pounds of copper and 1.45M ounces of gold (down from last year's levels of 1.3B pounds of copper and 2.5M ounces of gold). Q4 sales will be 410M pounds of copper and 625K ounces of gold (up from 163.5M and 273K respectively a year ago). Management indicates on the conference call that copper inventories are low and are dropping creating a tight environment. Demand is strong and any supply interruption would create very interesting situations given prices of copper at $1.30 and gold at $400. –END-
    * * * * *


    A staunch GATA supporter is on the right track:
    Klondike Star Reports 47g/t Gold From Parallel Trenches At The Nugget Zone


    SEATTLE, October 19, 2004 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Hans Boge, President of Klondike Star Mineral Corporation (OTCBB:KDSM) is pleased to announce that grab sampling of previously untested trench intervals at the Nugget Shear zone has assayed 47.57 g/t gold, and 11.38g/t gold (see conversion table below) from a trench 50m west of and parallel to the trench identified in the press release from October 13, 2004 ("Klondike Star Reports 42.5 g/t Gold Over 4m From The Nugget Zone"). – END-


    The gold shares continue to muddle around. They can’t seem to stand prosperity. The XAU gained .56 to 98.95, while the HUI could only manage a .10 plus session to 221.46.


    The perfect storm continues to foment on the horizon. It could easily turn into a Category 5 Hurricane, one which blows the heinous Gold Cartel out of the water. The combination of a sinking dollar, high oil price, breaking down stock market and surging physical gold market just might do them in. If any of this combo kicks in tomorrow morning, gold and silver SHOULD BE off to the races.


    Something else could do the bums in too. The Gold Cartel has been King of the Hill for nearly a decade. What Lola wanted, Lola almost always got. There is a good chance there are huge new buyers out there who smell blood in the water as far as the cabal is concerned. All they would have had to do to know how vulnerable The Gold Cartel is would be to have:


    *Learned what GATA knows, all of which is in the public domain. If so they know how little available central bank gold the cabal has left to keep the price from soaring.


    *Read the Sprott Asset Management Special Report titled, Not Free, Not Fair: The Long-Term Manipulation of the Gold Price


    *Read the speech by Oleg V. Mozhaiskov, Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia at the LBMA Conference on June 4, 2004.


    Maybe this is why we have received reports of massive Chinese and Russian gold buying entering the market?


    Gold, silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

    MIDAS


    Appendix


    http://www.washingtonpost.com/…004Oct18?language=printer


    Bearish on Uncle Sam?
    As Foreign Investment Shows Decline, Economists Keep Watch


    By Jonathan Weisman and Ben White
    Washington Post Staff Writers
    Tuesday, October 19, 2004; Page E01


    NEW YORK -- On Sept. 9, as it must frequently do, the U.S. government turned to Wall Street to raise a little cash, and Paul Calvetti bet that demand for $9 billion worth of long-term Treasury bonds would be "huge."


    But at 1 p.m., as the auction opened and the numbers began streaming across his flat-panel screens, the head of Treasury trading at Barclays Capital Inc. slumped in his chair. Foreign investors, who had been voraciously buying Treasury bonds, failed to show up. Bond prices cascaded downward, interest rates rose, and in five minutes, Calvetti, 38, who makes money by bidding on bonds at one price and hoping market demand lets him quickly resell them at a profit, had lost $1.5 million.


    "It's amazing," he gasped, after the Treasury Department announced that Wall Street traders, not foreigners, had been left to buy virtually the entire auction. "I don't think I've ever seen this before."


    The most recent auction of 10-year Treasury notes may have been a fluke, a momentary downturn in one aspect of the massive world market for U.S. government and private-sector bonds, stocks and other securities -- a market so large and diverse that it has long been the world's safe haven. But a rash of new data, including Treasury Department figures released yesterday showing a net sell-off by foreigners of U.S. bonds in August, has stoked debate over whether overseas investors -- private individuals, institutions and government central banks -- are growing dangerously bearish on the U.S. economy.


    It is a portentous issue. Foreign governments and individuals hold about half of the $3.7 trillion in outstanding U.S. Treasury bonds, for example, and the government has been heavily dependent on continued overseas bond purchases to finance the roughly $1 billion a day it has to borrow to pay its bills. Foreign lending and investment are also needed to finance the country's roughly $50 billion monthly trade deficit, while foreign capital has been a key prop to U.S. stock prices.


    A turn in overseas attitudes toward the United States could ripple deeply through the economy, depressing the market, raising interest rates and pushing down the value of the dollar.


    In August, foreign private investors actually sold $4.4 billion more in Treasury bonds and notes than they bought that month, the Treasury Department said yesterday -- the first time in a year that net foreign purchases were negative. That followed a 20 percent decline in July that shrunk net foreign purchases to $18.3 billion.


    Bond purchases by foreign central banks also dropped sharply in July, falling 76 percent, to $4.1 billion. A rebound in August brought them back to $19.1 billion. The recovery was timely: Without it, the dollar may have taken a serious hit, said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial Group in New York, who headlined yesterday's client newsletter, "Foreign Central Banks Save Dollar From Disaster."


    Foreign purchases of stocks are off as well, going from net purchases of $9.7 billion in July to a net sell-off of $2.1 billion in August. Over the past 12 months, private foreign investors have purchased a net of $17 billion in U.S. stocks, compared with $30 billion in the 12 months before that.


    Measuring the combined purchase of stocks, corporate bonds and government debt, overall capital flows into the United States fell in August for the sixth straight month.


    Treasury officials said such data should not be overanalyzed. Net purchases of U.S. government securities may have been low in August, at $14 billion, for example. But foreigners still bought more than $807 billion in Treasury bonds, while selling $793 billion, in a month that is usually a slow one in financial markets, said Treasury spokesman Tony Fratto.


    "These movements are taking place in a huge market," he said.


    But the downward trend in capital coming to the United States is nevertheless worrying, some economists argue, with particular implications for U.S. government debt.


    Foreign central banks and individuals rushed to finance U.S. government budget deficits over the past three years, buying $19.2 billion in Treasury bonds in 2001, $118 billion in 2002, and $279 billion in 2003. Lending from foreign governments in particular exploded last year -- to $109 billion, up from $7.1 billion in 2002.


    The fear among economists is that those foreign lenders may grow concerned that their portfolios are too swollen with dollar-denominated assets.


    The Chinese -- whose Treasury holdings have tripled since 2000, to $172 billion -- have already begun buying more euro-denominated assets, said Rebecca Patterson, a senior currency strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.


    Earlier this year, both China and India diverted tens of billions of their dollar holdings to domestic projects, with China pumping $45 billion into its banks and India devoting $15 billion to infrastructure projects.


    "China and India are no longer committed to open-ended dollar buying," Stephen S. Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, warned clients yesterday. "At the margin this shift is negative for the dollar and for U.S. real interest rates."


    As the big players begin to invest dollars domestically, the U.S. government is becoming more dependent on smaller nations, like Singapore and Korea, which may be quicker to sell off Treasurys and could demand higher interest rates, said Sung Won Sohn, chief economic officer at Wells Fargo Bank.


    "The U.S. government will always be able to raise money -- well, at least in the foreseeable future," he said. "The question is, what will you have to pay and who will you get it from?"


    The U.S. dependence on foreign capital concerns economists on both ends of the political spectrum. In a speech this March, Lawrence H. Summers, a Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration and now the president of Harvard University, warned of "a kind of global balance of financial terror," in which the economic well-being of the United States depends on the actions of foreign governments.


    "There is surely something off about the world's greatest power being the world's greatest debtor," he said. "In order to finance prevailing levels of consumption and investment, must the United States be as dependent as it is on the discretionary acts of what are inevitably political entities in other countries?"


    Desmond Lachman, an international economist at the American Enterprise Institute, writing for the conservative Web site Tech Central Station, cautioned that foreign central banks "now have considerable ability to disrupt U.S. financial markets by simply deciding to refrain from buying further U.S. government paper."


    Patterson said that is not likely, comparing the situation to "a Texas standoff with two cowboys. . . . If Asia stops buying, the market will get wind of it very quickly, and they will rush out the door. And Asia will be hurt very badly."


    To John Williamson, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics, that is cold comfort. The Chinese and Japanese central banks may maintain their huge reserves for defensive reasons, he said, but a smaller player, like Brazil or Singapore, could try to unload its dollar reserves, triggering a global sell-off. Like a mouse in a circus, even a bit player could cause the elephants to stampede.


    "It's absolutely true that it wouldn't be in the interest of the world to do it, but any one country might think, 'I'll beat the crowd and diversify first,' " he warned. "I think that's the more likely scenario."

    ghost_god
    Ich freue mich, daß Du Dich so intensiv mit dem von mir eingestellten Bericht befaßt und ihn kritisch hinterfragt hast.
    Dein Englisch ist zweifelsohne weitaus besser als meine englischen Sprachkenntnisse, weshalb allein Dein Posting es ermöglicht, die wesentlichen Dinge aus dem Bericht herauszuziehen.
    Wenn Du meine alten Beiträge durchsiehst, wirst Du feststellen, daß ich genau das, was Du getan hast, immer wieder in Erinnerung gerufen habe: Nicht alles nur durch die rosarote Brille zu sehen PRO Silber, sondern auch alles zu hinterfragen.
    Teile Deine Bedenken zu dem Bericht vollkommen.
    Viele Grüße
    Spieler

    "So wie die Freiheit bleibt Gold nie lange dort, wo es nicht geschätzt wird."
    J.S.Morill in einer Rede vor dem U.S.-Senat am 28.01.1878.

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Spieler0815 ()

    Hallo Spieler,


    hoert sich gut an, war schon etwas verwundert, dass gerade Du scheinbar diesen Beitrag von Mr. Morgan befuerwortetest.


    Kenne Dich sehr gut als kritischen User, dessen Meinung ich immer sehr geschaetzt habe.



    P.S.: Wer ist dieser Mr. Morgan? Vielleicht von der GATA?



    Schoene Gruesse,


    ghost_god

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