Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Chuck checked in early:

Just got in. Also, very pleased with the Red Sox win. How neat would it be to see Clemens in the Series?

But to gold and the markets. Today sets up the real possibility of the stock market tanking. If it resumes the down draft and breaks 9800, we could see some heavy selling coming in. I think that it is very instructive that gold and the stocks did not react negatively as the market came back.

The charts on gold and the leading stocks (NEM and GG) look like they are having a major leg here. It is very similar to the look of 2002 as the stocks had a series of panic selling and then made giant move up. My sense is that since the smaller ones still have not attracted any speculative money we are going to have a much larger leg than the current fashionable thinking. I have felt that the dollar would hold here, but the look is more and more ominous. Throw in the continuing move upward in the short-term interest rates with its squeeze on lending margins and we have a tasty recipe brewing for disaster.

I'd be surprised given the above and the ongoing financial follies and scandals that there is anything left to defend the status quo. If not, we are going to have some very nervous shorts in the precious metals and some potentially explosive derivative points. I think we are very close to all this happening. Chuck

Then again later on:

Bill:
Today continues the eerie feel to the market. The market weighs a thousand pounds as the financial stocks are starting to turn down and what I consider the bellwether golds, NEM and GG, exhibiting good strength. It is obvious that the powers of the market place are trying to keep gold from breaking out here until after the election, but I'm not certain that they have the ability anymore. But I have been fooled before. Would expect a quick slam on the close again, but let's keep our eyes on the shares. …

Two more thoughts. One is the absolute lack of interest in the exploration companies even though the HUI has been acting well. I view this as very bullish since it shows that there is no public belief in the move in gold here. Tow is the release today of the Investors Intelligence which even at this potential breakdown point is the highest bullish sentiment in months, almost 60% bulls vs 23% bears. Pretty unbelievable!
Chuck

This Business Week story is gold positive, yet doesn't cut it in my book. If gold rises $200 tomorrow, you know what it really means economically, or tells us? Nothing, except the crooks lost control of a multi-year rigging process to prevent commentary like this:

OCTOBER 21, 2004

NEWS ANALYSIS
By Amey Stone

Gold Is Flashing Warnings

Having hit a six-month high, the precious metal seems to be saying America's recovery "isn't that great." Not everyone agrees, though.

Gold is on the move again. On Oct. 20 it reached a six-month high of $425 an ounce in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up from a 52-week low of $375 in May. Although the yellow metal is still below this year's April peak of $430, its recent climb is pointing to some troubling economic trends.

"Gold is a store of value when uncertainty is out there," says Michael Cuggino, manager of the Permanent Portfolio Fund, which keeps about 20% of assets in gold. "It could be the pace of the economic recovery isn't that great," he says.

Stock investors seem to be coming to the same conclusion. The Dow Jones industrial average fell back below 10,000 yet again (it closed at 9,887 on Oct. 20) as Wall Street worries about less-than-stellar third-quarter corporate profits, rising energy costs, and declining consumer strength.

A DOWNER DOLLER. Gold typically rises when stocks fall, which means it can help lower volatility. That's making it increasingly appealing, not only to speculators but also to long-term investors looking for a way to diversify their portfolio, says Frank Holmes, chief executive of U.S. Global Funds, which has several top-performing precious-metals funds.

The weak dollar, which fell to an eight-month low against the euro on Oct. 20 is also contributing to demand for gold by foreign investors and central banks. "Our positive view on gold is based on our bearish outlook for the U.S. dollar," said a Goldman Sachs research report in August that predicted gold would trade as high as $450 in the next six months. Increasing prosperity of Asian consumers, especially in China, is another factor behind the strong demand abroad.

"Whenever you see gold going higher and the stock market treading water or going lower, it indicates to me that people are looking for alternatives," says Ed Giobbe, president of ESG Capital Management in New York. He invests about 10% to 25% of client assets in gold. "Those trends tend to last a long time."

"OUT TO LUNCH." Here's an important caveat to all this doom and gloom: The shiny stuff's higher price doesn't necessarily indicate that inflation is a problem and higher interest rates are on the way, say many experts. Indeed, rising rates present the biggest risk to gold prices, says Holmes.

Talk to Wayne Angell, a former member of the Federal Reserve Board who now has his own economic consulting firm, Angell Economics, and he'll tell you gold prices are actually declining -- relative to an index of other commodity prices, that is.

He doesn't think the Fed will need to raise rates to keep wages and prices in check. "Inflation isn't possible unless we get an increase in wages that enables workers to buy the products at higher prices," he says. "Clearly that hasn't happened." Pay is up just 2.3% year-over-year in the U.S. "Anyone that thinks inflation is a problem is simply out to lunch," he says.

ROCKY ROAD. Holmes, too, believes interest rates won't go much higher, even if the price of gold continues to soar. "We believe rate increases will occur in a slow and measured way," he says, "so gold should continue to benefit."

That's not necessarily a reason to rush out and buy some bullion now. Giobbe believes gold could trade down short-term as some investors take profits on recent gains. He notes that commercial gold buyers are shorting the market, while financial speculators are buying gold. "That's a very bad combination over the next couple of weeks," he says.

Long-term, however, Giobbe believes gold will moving much higher -- to as much as $500 an ounce next year and potentially even $1,000 an ounce in two to three years. The best time to buy, he says, is on weakness. And with the price reaching a new six-month high while economic conditions in the U.S. wobble, weak isn't the word for gold right now.

-END-

Chinese on the move:
GLOBE AND MAIL

China set to buy up Canada's resources

EXCLUSIVE: Noranda takeover is just a start, Foreign Minister tells GEOFFREY YORK in Beijing

By GEOFFREY YORK
UPDATED AT 5:10 PM EDT Thursday, Oct 21, 2004

China's Communist rulers have a blunt message for anyone who frets about the planned Chinese takeover of Canada's biggest mining company: Get ready for more to come.

In an exclusive interview with The Globe and Mail in Beijing this week, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing made it plain that the controversial $7-billion takeover of Noranda Inc. is just a small element in a much more ambitious strategy of investment in Canada's resources sector to feed China's voracious appetite for raw materials.

"Given our rapid economic growth, we're facing an acute shortage of natural resources," the Foreign Minister told The Globe.

"No matter how plentiful our natural resources, when you divide them by our population of 1.3 billion, the figure will be very small," he said.

"The Chinese government is encouraging Chinese enterprises to make investments in Canada, particularly in the field of resources exploitation."....

-END-

Gold demand news:

Central Fund Files Prospectus
15:46 EDT Thursday, October 21, 2004

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - Oct. 21, 2004) - Central Fund of Canada Limited ("CFOC") of Calgary, Alberta, Canada today announced that it has filed a preliminary short form prospectus with the securities commissions in each of the provinces and territories of Canada, except Quebec, and a registration statement with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed underwritten offering by CIBC World Markets Inc. of Class A Shares to the public in Canada and the United States. CFOC will only proceed with the offering if it is non-dilutive to the net asset value of the Class A shares owned by the existing shareholders of CFOC.

Substantially all of the net proceeds of the offering will be used to purchase gold and silver bullion, in keeping with the investment policies established by the board of directors of CFOC. The additional capital is expected to reduce the operating expense ratio in favour of the Shareholders of CFOC.
-END-

The gold shares rose again on what seemed like light volume. The XAU finished at 102.20, up .40 and the HUI climbed to 231.85, up 2.39. Both indexes closed off their highs. However, as Chuck noted there is little interest in some of the smaller golds. The difference between a year ago and today (with gold at the same price) is dramatic. That will change.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Open Letter from the Mining Community to Senator John Kerry Regarding His Position on Mining

October 21, 2004

Dear Senator Kerry,

You stand before the American people day after day and promise more jobs under a Kerry Administration. Yet your policies and record in the U.S. Senate prove these promises empty. The time has come for you to explain your positions and stop misleading the people of Nevada and this country about what a Kerry presidency would really lead to: higher taxes, rapid job loss and more government regulation.

Mining is vital to the Nevada economy, and behind South Africa and Australia, this state is the third-largest producer of gold in the world. Yet you propose increasing fees on mineral mining by $600 million, a position you have failed to defend to the people of this state.

The reality is the results of your proposal would devastate the hard rock mining industry, costing as many as 44,000 jobs nationwide. For someone who is promising Nevadans jobs, here alone are 44,000 broken promises.

Studies show that your policies would result in a net loss to the Federal Treasury of up to $500 million, an earnings loss of $1.2 billion and an output loss of more than $6 billion. How can you promise a "stronger" economy when the word that best describes your fiscal policies is "loss"? Not only is your liberal ideology out of the mainstream, you are personally out of touch with the Nevada economy.

You have continually sided against the people, economy and interests of this state, so much so that you have repeatedly broken with your own party. How can you lead as President when even fellow Democrats abandon you?

When it was time to overturn a Clinton-era, environmentalist-backed legal interpretation of 1872 mining law that your colleague, Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), referred to as "disastrous," you said no. Reid later declared the successful reversal, which brought mining out of a virtual standstill, "good for our economy, good for our nation and good for Nevada." Time after time, Sen. Kerry, you have been on the wrong side of issues important to us.

The working people of Nevada have for too long been asking themselves where you are and what you really stand for, and the time has come for you to clearly explain what convictions you hold. Frankly, Sen. Kerry, we find what we have seen thus far unimpressive and unacceptable.

Your record in the Senate is appalling. You missed a vote to cut the capital gains tax on investments in precious metals which Nevada Senators Reid and Ensign supported. You voted for repealing tax breaks available to hard rock mining companies, legislation which Nevada Senators Reid and Bryan voted against. You have voted to limit the tax deductions of mining companies while also supporting harmful royalty requirements on the mining industry. Where does it all end?

We can only assume that your failures as a Senator will translate into failures as a President, only on a much greater scale. Before you claim to have a plan for creating jobs, you must explain to the people of Nevada why you choose to deny them theirs.

Sincerely,

The Northwest Mining Association

CONTACT: Tracey Schmitt (703) 647-2790

Napoleon III
Don Stott
I know, let me put the words in your mouth: "Stott, you've really gone off the deep end now." Oh yeah? Well, my friend, the problems of France, and Emperor Napoleon III…and the silver market, are so obviously pertinent, and probably unknown by most, that I think you'd better keep on reading!

Several things had a serious effect on France, beginning about 1850. First of all, the gold discovery in California in 1849, plus discoveries in Australia and Siberia, made gold far more plentiful than silver in a lot of places, and especially in France. World gold production between the years 1850 and 1875 exceeded production of the previous 350 years. By a law passed in 1803, France had an official gold-silver ratio of 15.5 to 1, so silver was necessary. French coinage was silver.

In 1832, Belgium acquired independence from Holland. In 1854, Belgium ceased producing silver coins, and depended on the French mint for silver. It was cheaper than minting its own coins. In 1854, the French minted fewer silver coins than at any time since the Revolution in 1795. Silver was hoarded and speculated upon by the masses. It was indeed scarce. Belgium's silver imports from France jumped from 6 million francs in 1850, to 78 million in 1859. Switzerland was having the same problems in obtaining silver for its coinage.

Gold was literally everywhere, it seemed, and those nations who had a silver based monetary system, as did France and others, suffered from a severe shortage of silver. Realizing that, the citizens hoarded silver, so little was available for coinage. It seemed as though everyone was dealing with, and paying with gold. There was so much gold, that its price went down, and so little silver, that its price went up. Simple economics. France desperately needed silver.

Then, along comes the War of Northern Aggression, improperly called the "Civil War." France's most important industry was textiles, and the North's blockade in 1861, stopped cotton shipments from America, which France depended upon. It was a disaster, to put it mildly. By 1863, France had 223,336 unemployed, affecting the lives of approximately 670,000 persons. Napoleon was enraged over the French dependence on the US for its cotton, and went to India for cotton. Indian cotton had a shorter staple, many impurities, and resulted in a yarn that caused threads to break more easily. Reluctantly, France went to India, but India demanded payment in…guess what… silver! America had accepted gold. India absolutely refused to export its cotton unless it was paid for in silver. Mean time, many small mills had gone bankrupt, and the larger ones were in deep financial difficulty.

Get the picture? France, as well as others, were in a desperate need of silver, and huge amounts of gold were on the market because of recent discoveries. No one had any silver…except Mexico…and everyone wanted it. Most of it was in Sonora, on the northwest corner of Mexico. Sonora was, and still is, a sort of desolate, parched, uninhabited place, with its main city being Hermosillo. Actually, Mexico's borders receded drastically when the US acquired about half of Mexico by the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, signed on Feb 2, 1848. Less than two weeks earlier, gold had been discovered in California, and the adventurers quickly descended on Sonora, thinking it would be rich in gold also. California was then part of the US, whereas Sonora was still a Mexican possession. Officials in Sonora were worried about the sudden influx. Sonora was enormously rich in silver. So much so, that it was supplying three fourths of the world's supply. Solid ingots weighing thousands of pounds were found in Sonora. Mexico's wealth of silver, and France's and other's dearth, could easily restore the world's balance between gold and silver.

In the 1850's, Sonora had several difficulties. The Apaches raided regularly, and the defeat in the recent war with the US, left them broke and battered. Many Sonorans, ironically, ignored the huge silver wealth in their own land, and were lured by California gold. Their two greatest threats, the Indians and Americans, were ignored by Mexico City, and little help was sent. Charles de Pindray and 88 Frenchmen left California for Sonora on November 21, 1851, aboard the Cumberland, and soon landed at Guaymas, Mexico. They attempted to make a deal with the Mexicans to obtain much needed silver, but were rebuffed by the officials. The Indians were also harassing them, and hope was lost. Pindray was mysteriously shot on June 5th, 1852, possibly self-inflicted by his failure to obtain the silver.

A second expedition was launched in 1852 by Pierre Charles de Saint-Amant. He, and 80 men left San Francisco, but that also failed. A third group in 1852 was led by Raousset-Boulbon, but he did it diplomatically, rather than attempting force. He went to Mexico City, not Sonora, and obtained political, financial, and diplomatic backing, plus a concession from the President Mariano Aristra for the silver mines of Arizona, located on the northern border of Sonora. It got really complex from then on, with Switzerland getting in on the action, but basically nothing resulted, and Aristra resigned the presidency in January of 1853. Santa Anna took over.

Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna took office in March 1853. In December 1853, the Gadsden Treaty allotted even more Mexican Territory to the United States. Now about Santa Anna. He was illegitimate, a womanizer, mean, and in general not a very nice guy…a euphemism. Mexico had allowed Americans to settle into the Texas territory to populate it. They figured it was just a dry plain with no mineral wealth, and no hope of ever going anywhere. So, thousands of Americans from Arkansas, Tennessee, and other places decided to move to the Mexican Territory of Texas, where they obtained land for two cents an acre. Among them was Sam Houston, a former Congressman, Governor, and depressed man. His wife had left him, and he had sunk into alcoholism and depression. Santa Anna decided that he wanted the immigrants to pay taxes to Mexico, and be subservient to Mexico. He was afraid that he was losing Texas, since it had been largely populated with US immigrants. He was! The Texians, (what they called themselves), said "Hell no," and the Alamo was fought over it. The Texians lost that one, but at the battle of San Jacinto, they won, even though they were outnumbered four to one. Santa Anna had his men ready for the fight, and the Texians didn't show up. He told his men to take a nap and relax. Santa Anna went into his tent with a gal, who was a secret friend of the Texians, who later became known as "The Yellow Rose of Texas." She seduced Santa Anna, and when the Texians came, he had his pants down, and there was no one to lead his forces. They lost, and the Republic of Texas was born. Santa Anna cancelled the silver deal with France.

Napoleon III did everything in his power to obtain Mexican Silver, and he succeeded, but not in the way he wanted. He never got to own the mines or colonize Sonora, despite numerous efforts, sending representatives, threatening force, being diplomatic, or a dozen other attempts. While he was trying though, silver was indeed flowing from Mexico to France. The catastrophic shortage of silver in Europe, and especially France had been abated somewhat. In 1863, wising up, Mexico prohibited the export of all silver.

This succinctly points out how important gold and silver are, because they are real, honest MONEY. A hundred and fifty years ago, Just about all currencies were backed by gold and silver, and silver was the accepted coinage around the world. Daily purchases and transactions were done with silver coins, and gold was in various treasuries to back the currencies. Everyone had real gold and silver coins, which were, and still are, MONEY in the truest sense of the word. It was an accepted fact of life, and no one questioned the sense of it. Inflationary times weren't part of anyone's vocabulary, other than in war times, when un-backed paper currencies were attempted, and always failed. France was desperate for silver, just to carry on normal transactions between citizens. The Indians were smart enough to demand silver for their cotton, and any nation without gold and silver, was in a terrible fix. How times have changed! Today, true money is shunned by the majority, and worthless pieces of paper with engravings on them, are accepted as valuable and as money. They are neither, and as time progresses and the presses continue rolling out trillions of notes, more and more will realize the fallacy of it all, and wish they had taken their surplus and placed it in gold and silver.

Today, as was true under Napoleon III, there is a shortage of silver. We are using twice what is being produced. The world is also consuming twice the gold that is being produced. How long before it becomes a general realization that the true monies are the way to save, making them cost ever more in paper currencies? I say not long, and when prices of gold and silver skyrocket in FRN's, that will be an indication. Protect yourself.

October 22, 2004

Don Stott has been a precious metals broker since 1977, has written five books, hundreds of columns, and his web site is http://www.coloradogold.com

Germony

GOLD AND GOLD STOCKS APPEAR READY TO SOAR

Dr. Richard S. Appel
http://www.financialinsights.org

Much has occurred during the past few months that drew me to the conclusion that gold and gold equities are approaching a period when they will shortly resume their secular Bull Market advances. I have recognized and discussed during this time my belief that the gold price would be under pressure until after the upcoming presidential election. Further, it has been my contention that no effort would be spared to maintain orderly stock, bond and gold markets, in order to help the incumbent remain in office.

During the past few years I noted some of the strange gold price actions that occurred, the comparisons to which I had not witnessed across my nearly forty years of studying the gold and gold equities markets. Importantly, some of these unusual occurrences became quite commonplace in the last two months. After considering their consequences I am compelled to believe that sharply higher gold and gold share prices are likely awaiting us just around the corner.

It is my conviction that our leaders desire to control an orderly gold price rise as its secular Bull Market unfolds. They are not so much concerned if gold moves higher, but how its advances play out. They realize that gold will advance as a result of their actions, but they desire to prevent the public from recognizing that fact for as long as possible.

For new readers, the reason that politicians shun gold is because it acts as a barometer, whose price action announces how a government is handling their country's fiscal and monetary affairs. When a nation is acting prudently, their monetary unit is stable on world markets, as are their domestic prices. Under such conditions, the gold price tends to find a level from which it does not greatly deviate.

When most countries maintained a gold standard, the last vestige of which ended in 1971, the noble metal acted to limit a government's propensity towards excessive monetary creation. Our leaders could only issue dollars if they had sufficient gold with which to redeem them. This forced those in power to live within their means. They could not spend more than they acquired through taxation. However, when a nation state acts irresponsibly and overspends their tax receipts creating fiscal deficits, it drives its balance of payments into negative territory, and both their currency's worth on world markets and its local purchasing power falls. During such times gold senses that the currency is destined to decline, and will rise in anticipation of that event. This is the real reason that gold, despite all of the negative rhetoric that abounds, has been plodding higher in price. Do not forget it has already risen 65% since it posted its 2001 bottom, with neither the awareness nor participation of the general public.

Since the birth of civilization gold has been coveted by man. It was one of the first forms of money and once recognized for its eternal value, has been used by virtually all civilizations as their primary form of money. If we were able to go back in time for sixty or more years, you would find that it was the prime, universal item used as money. The reason that it achieved this lofty state, and maintained it for several millennia, was due to the fact that its use forced politicians to be honest regarding their issuance of paper money substitutes. Each time a country deviated from exclusively using gold and issued paper currency in its stead, their leaders began to debase their money at an escalating pace. In all cases, this did not end until the banknotes finally became worthless or nearly so. The only question was how long it took. This is the reason behind the old French adage that, "even the poorest French peasant hides gold under his mattress". It was the result of the repeated currency changes that France's citizens were forced to endure. These were due to their government's destruction of each new currency that they issued, to replace the earlier ones that they had inflated to near worthlessness.

I digressed, again. A number of unusual events have repeatedly occurred in the gold market for at least the past few years. These go against all of my experience following the gold market, as well as the laws of probability. First, gold has rarely traded higher than $6 on any given day. Each time that it begins a session sharply higher or trades to this level above its previous closing price, a substantial amount of selling has appeared. Bill Murphy (Gold Antitrust Action Committee, GATA.org) was the first person to note these incredible recurring incidents. I sensed that something was wrong for quite some time prior to his observation, but it was his bringing my attention to it that first stopped me in my tracks.

He rightly pointed out that this action has helped prevent drawing undue attention to gold after it began its tortuous, rising, bullish path in 2001. Second, often when the great metal was either leaving a base or when it suddenly shot higher, it would meet a wall of selling. The last several days are a good example. Gold, after trading just over $6 above the prior day's close last Friday, was not only stopped dead in its tracks, but it moved sideways on Monday, only to be whacked on the following day when it gapped down $6, before posting a $7 loss. In the old days, when gold exhibited an explosive breakout or a sharp run-up, the momentum typically followed through for at least several days before a setback occurred. Now, almost like clockwork whenever gold trades strongly higher selling mounts, and the wind is immediately taken out of its sails.

Still another repetitive telltale trading pattern has been in force. This time it involves the action of the HUI, the Amex Gold Bugs Index. In the past the HUI and its precursor the XAU, the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index, often reversed direction prior to the yellow metal at major turning points, during extended gold advances or declines. Gold and the major producers normally move in tandem. However, the past two or more years have seen the HUI reverse course on any given day while gold was moving strongly higher. With few exceptions, the following day gold was hit for a substantial and often a prolonged string of losing sessions. Some observers have commented that this action might be the result of information leaking of a forthcoming attack on gold. Whatever the reason, it has often signaled an impending downdraft in gold's price.

I am bringing these extraordinary events to your attention because the regularity of these strange and recurring anomalies have greatly increased during the past few months. I believe that the reason for this condition is the fact that buyers of the yellow metal have become more aggressive, and thus the need to overwhelm these gold positive forces has similarly risen. This, in order to prevent a near-term, sharply higher price.

I realize that many readers are quite skeptical of my above claims and statements. I am not asking you to believe me! However, I suggest for your own sake, that you keep an open mind and try to more closely follow the daily price movements of gold and the HUI. It will be easy enough to draw your own conclusions. But again, you must be open-minded and try to believe what you see and ignore all of the negative gold rhetoric that fills the airways. If I am correct, you will have sufficient time as gold's great secular Bull Market unfolds, to confirm or refute my observations. This will allow you to determine for yourself if either the cited abnormal events are a coincidence, or if official actions or statements occur at times when gold is soaring, and are used to control its further advance.

In any event, I believe that anyone interested in the gold complex should closely focus on the trading relationship between gold and the HUI. Further, you should use caution whenever a deviation from the norm such as I have described presents itself.

If you invest in gold I believe that it is imperative for you to attempt to get a "feel" for the gold market. You should at least follow the daily closing prices of gold and the HUI and compare them with earlier ones. I believe that this is best done in real terms, not in percentages. For example, if gold posts consecutive closes of $420, $416, $418, $416.50, $417 and $415.50 you can sense that it is trending downward, albeit it slightly. However, if you work in percentage terms you have no reference point from which to judge its underlying direction. All that you know is that it was down 1%, up 0.5%, down 0.4%, up 0.2% etc. You will lose all sense of its trend. If you use this method in following all of your markets I believe that you will develop a better grasp of their primary trends.

An advance in gold is the determining factor that will influence the price movements of both the major producers and the junior exploration companies. I believe that we are on the cusp of a substantial increase in gold's price which will drive it to test the $500 level. I do not know if the precious metal can muster sufficient buying power to propel it to a new high prior to the election. However, once the need to strenuously restrain its advance no longer exists, I feel that it will break free of its shackles and surprise most onlookers with a burst of strength.

I suspect that November will be attended with a new Bull Market high. However, precise timing was never my forte, and we may have longer to wait. Yet, given what appears to be a far greater magnitude of effort necessary to constrain its price, it is likely that it will literally evaporate when the last presidential vote is cast.

My only potential caveat is that a number of gold enthusiasts are predicting a similar scenario. This gives me some pause because I prefer gold breakouts that are anticipated by as few investors as possible. However, I doubt if all of we pundits combined have as much influence as the worldwide audience that gold appears to be finally attracting.

The gold producing companies, as viewed through the action of the HUI, struck their lows in May. I believe that they will join and make new highs along with gold. They have completed their bases and await a breakout to new high levels before they will really roar. The HUI is trading at 227.47 and its Bull Market peak is $258.60. Additionally, it's 50 day moving average just rose above its 200-day average. They are 208.38 and 207.23 respectively. Thus the HUI's moving average study has turned bullish, which is a major plus.

The junior sector is becoming quite interesting to me at present. After sustaining substantial losses during the springtime they bottomed around July. From their lows, most companies moved higher and many of them developed defined upward trends. It appears to me that most of the better companies have cleaned up their markets; they have absorbed all of the cheap stock sold by the weak holders. This being said, I believe that they too are poised to move sharply higher along with gold. I will discuss my ideas on this topic more fully in the Resource Market section.

October 21, 2004

CHART FISSURES SUGGEST SOMETHING BIG IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/goldberg/2004/1021.html
(mit Charts)

# All,

tut mir wirklich leid, sind wir hier im "Englischen " Forum ? Ist es nicht möglich auch einige Infos in unserer Sprache zu erhalten, wäre ein schöner Zug.

gruß hpoth

hpopth,

ganz deiner Meinung. Auch wenn man sehr gut Englisch kann, ist es doch einfacher, einen Text in deutscher Sprache zu lesen.

Diejenigen, die immer nur Texte reinkopieren, sollten doch bitte eine kurze Zusammenfassung des Textes auf Deutsch anhängen. Ansonsten reicht es ehrlich gesagt, wenn der Link reinkopiert wird - dann muss man auch nicht so lange bis zur nächsten Nachricht blättern.

have a nice weekend

extrel

@hpothth, extrel,

Okay, ich habe die Anregung zur Kenntnis genommen.
Ich werde ab sofort entweder nur die Links oder selbige mit
einer kurzen stichwortartigen Zusammenfassung einstellen.

Germoney

p.s. Ich würde mich natürlich auch sehr über mehr deutsche
Beiträge freuen, aber ich habe es gelernt - schon aus beruflichen Belangen
- nicht nur Englisch zu lesen, sondern auch zu denken und träumen.
Es fiel mir nicht leicht, aber es ist erlernbar.

Hallo germoney !

Was ist an den Englischen Träumen so schön.??????????

Gruß Jürgen

#All,

DIe Porfilierungsucht ist eben da , nur wer exelent " English " liest und spricht ist in, alle anderen sind eben die doofen.

Übrigens wen es interessiert ThaiGuru postet bei http://www.silberinfo.de

gruß hpoth

Am 08.10.04 hört Thai hier auf. Am 09.10.04 scheint das dortige Forum in Betrieb zu gehen, Thai postet am gleichen Tag.

Vielleicht war der Abgang hier doch inszeniert.

Impressum Silberinfo.de
silberinfoteam:
Stephan Bogner
Frank Ewers
Achim Schwarze
Andreas Späth
Tobias Weber

Vor 75 Jahren, am 25.10.1929, war der Schwarze Freitag (Börsenkrach an der Wall Street )

Heute war ebenfalls ein schwarzer Tag in New York:

ftd.de, Fr, 22.10.2004, 16:21, aktualisiert: Fr, 22.10.2004, 22:22
US-Börsenschluss: Dow Jones fällt auf 12-Monats-Tief
Von Meike Schreiber, Frankfurt

Rekordpreise für Öl und gemischte Unternehmensdaten haben den Anlegern die Stimmung verdorben. Bis zum Handelsende rutschten die Indizes immer weiter an; der Blue-Chip-Index Dow Jones fiel auf den tiefsten Stand seit November letzten Jahres.
Der Index fiel um 1,1 Prozent auf 9757 Punkte und durchbrach damit einen wichtigen Widerstand bei 9800 Punkten. Weitere Verluste sind damit - zumindest unter charttechnischen Gesichtspunkten - gut möglich. Auch der Nasdaq Composite sackte nach den kräftigen Gewinnen vom Vortag deutlich ab und verlor zwei Prozent; der S&P-500 gab ein Prozent nach.

Druck kam wie schon seit Wochen vom Rohstoffmarkt: Die Ölpreise notierten am Freitag wegen der Sorge über niedrige Heizölvorräte in den USA wieder auf Rekordständen. Langsam aber sicher wächst die Sorge, dass der Preisanstieg für den wichtigen Rohstoff die globale Wirtschaft nicht nur bremst, sondern in die Stagnation reißt. ....

Ich lese grundsätzlich keine englischen Texte.
Die sind verlogen, langatmig und meistens frage ich mich wie es möglich ist das sie überhaupt ihre eigene Sprache verstehen können.

Wahrscheinlich denken die Englisch Sprechenden / schreibenden über unsere Deutschen Texte genauso.

Langatmig ist es nur deshalb, weil man länger benötigt um den Text zu lesen und zu verstehen als bei einem in der Muttersprache, aber ich habe die Erfahrung gemacht, daß man gerade dadurch viel besser behält, worum es in dem Text geht, da man sich viel intensiver mit dem Text beschäftigen muß.

Seit ca. 21.30 Uhr bricht der Dollar ganz gewaltig nach oben aus v. 1,261 auf 1,268. Das letzte Mal, wo dies am 19./20.10. erfolgte, gab es parallel dazu auch einen deutlichen (!!!) Kursanstieg bei Gold und Silber.

Die Gold-/Silbermärkte waren jedoch zu diesem Zeitpunkt schon geschlossen, so dass am Montag eine deutliche Kurssteigerung zu erwarten ist !

Ulfur

Das bei silberinfo schaut schon ordentlich nach Abo-Abzocke aus....Die Aufmachung ist genau die gleiche wie bei goldseiten und der Abgang hier,sieht schon sehr inszeniert aus,nix für Ungut,Thai....

Naja,was soll's...wir werden uns schon selber helfen hier!

(die Debatte über englischsprachige Texte versteh ich nicht so ganz!Das Problem ist halt:
die meisten Infos sind eben mal auf englisch...und wer hat schon die Zeit und auch die
Fähigkeiten das dann immer schnell und korrekt zu übersetzen?...und die ergebnisse aus den Übersetzungsprogrammen sind ja sowas von übel,da "quäl" ich mich dann doch lieber durch einen englischen Artikel durch...)

@ Ulfur
@ Wasserzeichen

zum silberinfo

Warum seid Ihr so negativ eingestellt? Ist doch ne Spitzenseite, klar Sie ist noch im Aufbau, aber da wird sich so mancher warm anziehen müssen. Seid einfach ehrlich zu Euch selbst!

Ich zahle lieber 3,95 € im Monat, was ich leicht verschmerzen kann. Dafür bin ich unabhängig vom Goldcabal. Infos zum Nulltarif, das sollte Euch klar sein, die Zeit ist vorbei. Aber hier bei GS ist der Sponsor ja bekannt !

Nun, ich will nicht viele Worte verlieren... es war eine schöne Zeit hier im Forum mit Euch, ich danke allen, mit welchen ich im Laufe der Zeit frucht- bare Diskussionen geführt habe!
Ich werde auch ab sofort vor allem bei Silberinfo posten - den einen oder anderen bekannten Namen werde ich wohl dort auch antreffen - ich wünsche jedenfalls allen weiterhin interessante Diskussionen und viel Spass am Thema Edelmetalle!

Schöne Grüsse,
Thom

P.S. @ Wasserzeichen

Zitat

Die Aufmachung ist genau die gleiche wie bei goldseiten

Meinst Du das Forum oder die Homepage? Die Homepage hat eine völllig andere Aufmachung, finde ich - da sehe ich überhaupt keine Parallele.
Ich nehme aber an, Du meinst das Forum: Das sieht (wie übrigens sehr viele Foren im Internet) logischerweise fast gleich aus - das Forum ist nämlich nicht eine Kreation von "Goldseiten", sondern von WoltLab. Das sogenannte "WoltLab Burning Board" ist mittlerweile fast ein Standard - derart hat es sich schon verbreitet - zu Recht, wie ich finde, spricht doch die Bedienungsfreundlichkeit und die grosse Menge der Möglichkeiten (Forentechnik, Formatierungs- und Graphikmöglichkeiten, etc.) eindeutig für diese Art Forum. Verständlich daher, dass auch Silberinfo und viele andere Seiten auf dieses Forum setzen - wieso das Rad neu erfinden...
Mit "Aufmachung wie bei Goldseiten" hat das aber nichts zu tun - sondern nur damit, dass beide Seiten für das Forum dasselbe (weitverbreitete) Produkt benutzen. Denn wie gesagt, abgesehen vom Forum sehe ich wirklich keine Ähnlichkeit in der Aufmachung.

P.P.S. Zur Diskussion wegen Englischen Texten: Nun, es ist eine Tatsache, dass die meisten Meldungen zu den Edelmetallen nun mal auf Englisch herausgegeben werden...
Eine Zusammenfassung auf Deutsch ist da für das Forum sicher eine Bereicherung, da viele User Mühe oder wenig Übung mit englischen Texten haben. Allerdings kann ich schon verstehen, dass nicht jeder die Zeit hat, die Texte auch zu übersetzten und solange die englischen Texte im Forum nicht überborden, finde ich es nicht weiter schlimm, auch mal einen englischen Text vorzufinden...
Für die einen kann es einen willkommenen Informationsgewinn sein - die anderen können ja einfach zum nächsten Beitrag scrollen...

Noch kurz was zu den von Maple und Wasserzeichen angesprochenen Abo-Gebühren: So eine Seite aufzubauen und die Artikel und das Informationsangebot zu erstellen braucht viel Zeit, Arbeit und persönlichen Einsatz, den finanziellen Aufwand mal beiseite gelassen.
Da finde ich es legitim, dafür auch etwas zu verlangen - die Zeitung am Kiosk ist auch nicht gratis. Die einen machen halt ihre Einnahmen mit Werbung und Sponsoren, die anderen verlangen Abo-Gebühren...
Jeder kann ja schlussendlich selbst entscheiden, welche Art des Angebotes er bevorzugt und nutzt. Jedenfalls gibt's bei Silberinfo keine nevigen Popups, wie ich sie z.B. bei WO schon in grösserer Zahl wegklicken musste, und auch sonst gibt's nicht viel Werbung auf Silberinfo...

Nette Grüsse,
Thom

Thom

Ja,mit WO hast Du schon recht....die Popupnerverei ist schon übel.Von daher stimmt das schon mit den Gebühren.....solange es dann bei den 3,90 im monat bleibt....
Trotzdem: ein Themenboard lebt letztendlich von den Beiträgen vieler Teilnehmer,da kann man schon drüber streiten,ob es legitim ist,einzelne ,die eben mehr beitragen als andere,
sozusagen zu "entlohnen."
Das führt doch alles nur dazu,das du irgendwann mal im ganzen I-Net keinen Pups mehr machen kannst ohne zu blechen,weil es blos noch vor lauter Bezahldiensten wimmelt ...
Das der Betrieb einer board-homepage natürlich Geld und Zeit braucht,ist mir schon klar!
Nur,dann sollte wenigstens auf der Startseite gleich drauf hingewiesen werden,zu was die Gebühren verwendet werden...

Hallo Thom,

>> es war eine schöne Zeit hier im Forum mit Euch <<

Ich freue mich für dich dass du das Forum hier gemocht hast.
Meine Erfahrung war eine andere:

Ich bin angegriffen worden, meine Bitte Spam-Beiträge zu entfernen ist ignoriert worden, und Moderatoren haben da sogar mitgemacht.

Die Beiträge hier sind SEHR einseitig. Genau so wie bei WO die Aktien hoch gelobt werden, genau so wird es hier mit Gold und Silber getan. Alles anderes wird niedergemacht. Ich vermisse die Balance.

Ich schreibe hier nie mehr meiner Meinung über Rohstoffe. Das einzige was hier interessant ist, sind die Fachbeiträge. Die lese ich gern, das ist aber auch alles.

Es ist schade dass man ein Forum so nieder machen kann.

Grüße

humm