Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

# Hallo Schwabenpfeil,

habe eine Buch Empfehlung für Dich. Roland Baader brinngt ein neues Buch auf den Markt mit dem Titel:

Geld, Gold und Gottspieler

auf den Markt.

Hier geht es um folgendes " Die Sozialsysteme der Wohlfahrts-und Sozialstaaten der westlichen Welt steuern dem Zusammenbruch entgegen.Viele sind bereits am Ende und werden nur noch mit bugetpolitischen Tricks ( sihe Eichel) und betrügerischen Manipulationen mühsam aufrechterehalten.Der Wohlstand der Industrienationen besteht seit rund drei Jahrzenten zu einem Gutteil nur noch aus Schein und Illusionen- konkret: aus Kapitalverzehr- und steht mit seinen Fundamenten auf dem schlammigen Untergrund eines rieseigen Schuldenmeers"

Was dann folgt, ist eine packende Abhandlung über die Enstehung des Geldes, über seine moderne Entartung zu Scheingeld ( im doppelten Sinne), pber Realitätsverlust und Machtkalkül der Herrschenden,über falsche Wirtschaftstheorien und ihren verheerenden Einfluß,über die sich zuspitzende Krise des Systems und über Wege zur Rettung.

Die Stärke Baaders liegt darin, nicht nur das große Gemälde der Finanzkrise mit kräftigen Pinselstrichen zu malen, sondern nebenbei auch wirtschaftliche Kenntnisse zu vermittel, ohne langweilig zu werden.

Das Buch kann ab sofort beim Bandulet Verlag in Bad Kisigen versandkosten frei bestgllt werden , 342 Seiten Preis 29,90€

Am Vorabend der nächsten Weltwirtschaftskrise.

good luck

hpoth

J.P.Morgan positiv über Gold [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseiten-forum.de/images/icons/icon8.gif]

Investment bank J.P. Morgan Securities is even more bullish, advising clients: "We expect the market to stage sustainable rallies over the coming weeks/months with the initial medium term objective at $461-$464 and potentially $500."

http://www.manufacturing.net/p…2F8%2F2004+8%3A36%3A00+AM

Peter Brimelow über den Goldpessimisten Prechter mit seinen Elliotwellen, der einen kurzfristigen Gold-Bärenmarkt voraussieht, dieses Szenario bei einem Übersteigen von 422$ allerdings überdenken wollte, nun aber nichts mehr zu den erreichten 422$ sagt:

And then there's the Elliott Wave forecasters grouped around Robert G. Prechter. Paradoxically, Prechter is a long-term gold bull. (See my Aug 25 2003 column).

But he has been calling for a savage short-term bear market in gold -- unless it sends a clear signal that would cause him to review his technical work. That signal used to be "a close beyond $422."

Several readers have been interested to know whether Prechter and his lieutenants at the Elliot Wave Financial Forecast accept that this signal has now been given.

Prechter seems to have quietly forgotten about $422. This is not necessarily a gotcha! offense -- the ultimate test is whether an adviser is right, not how consistent his arguments are.

Still, the latest Elliott Wave Financial Forecaster says:

"The rally from the May 10 low of $375.70 has carried higher than anticipated, but the overlapping waves of the rise are clearly corrective...Gold should be at a top. A downward reversal would be the start of wave (3), a multi-month decline. As previously noted, a close above the April 1 high [$436.50 basis December] would loud the picture and require a re-examination of the wave count."

I read this to mean that futures have to close above the April intraday high.

It hasn't happened yet. But it's getting very close.
Aus:
Gold quietly reaches critical level
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/earthlink-net/mw-news.asp?guid={AD34845E-ED6D-4BD2-9C58-DEB60E3B555E}

ich denke "die" (wer die immer sein mögen) verscheissern die Goldbugs über die Währung. Die meisten Minen und auch die Fonds sind immer noch im Minus obwohl der Goldpreis den letzten Hoch wieder erreicht hat. Was hilft es wenn Gold bei 1000$ steht und die Minen nichts davon haben ? Was auch noch kommt ist dass die EZB auch was dagegen hat dass der € zu stark ist.

So ist es yoyo!

Zum Trost:

The Next Bush Recession?
An Open Letter to Karl Rove
There's a Storm Cloud On the Horizon

This week we enter the realm controversial. The election is over, and now reality will impinge its often unpleasant odor over the political landscape of the hopes and dreams of all sides of the debates. I explore the world of Republican political reality and how it will be affected by the economy over the next four years. We look at Bush's national agenda and muse upon whether it can come to pass. This will, of course, be guaranteed to annoy most of my readers, as those who oppose Bush will not like my suggestions and those who align themselves with him will not enjoy my raining upon their parade before they have had a reasonable time to bask in the glow of victory, or reminding them of real potential problems in 2008.
A quick caveat. I will style this as an open letter to Karl Rove. Although not active in the last few years due to time constraints, I was quite active in Texas politics in the 80's and 90's, working on numerous committees and campaigns, finally serving on the Texas State Republican Committee where I served on a small committee that represented the party to the governor's office when Bush was governor of Texas. You cannot run in such circles in Texas without bumping into Karl Rove from time to time, and we bumped often. I like the man, as do most people who have met him. He is currently the finest political mind in the country - a verifiable second coming of Lee Atwater, the architect of Reagan's victories and the Republican Renaissance of the 80's. I have not always liked how he runs a race (especially if I had a "horse" he was not backing), but I always admired his skills. His horses tended to win.
Now, however, there will be no re-election campaign to run. Now it is about legacy and the future of our country. Next week we return to our usual non-partisan commentary, but this week, I think it will serve our purpose to think about how politics will affect our economy and our future. With that, let's begin.
There's a Storm Cloud On the Horizon
Dear Karl,
A simple "congratulations" seems so small considering what you accomplished. In the face of one of the most powerful campaigns ever waged against an incumbent, with so much money spent, with everything going wrong in Iraq, prison scandals, growing body counts, with the constant barrage of media suggesting a poor economy and employment picture, Florida hurricanes hurting employment surveys, with a mainstream media overtly aiding the opposition, you managed to marshal the resources necessary to win. You controlled the debate and ended with the fight in your home base, right where you wanted it. And you did it without getting seriously negative. There was no scorched earth. Kerry had some real personal issues, and you simply did not go there. In the face of Michael Moore and that obscene crowd, that shows some remarkable restraint.
Friends have been calling me all year from around the country worrying about the election. My answer was always the same. "Those of us in Texas know to trust Karl. He knows better than anyone how to put together the right campaign to get enough votes. If there is anyone who can pull this off, it is Rove." And you did.
I remember sitting in your office, many years ago, arguing about something. I can't remember what exactly, but I am sure it was vital to the future of human progress. It was also a losing issue at the polls. "If you don't win," you told me, "you can't get any of your agenda accomplished."
Well, now we've "won." There are no more re-elections. Yes, we need to try to insure that we can win again in 2008, but that may be harder than it looks now, as I will outline below. We have a window of time to work on that agenda. It is time to get down to business on some major problems. It is time to stand and deliver.
I was really happy to hear the President come out with a short list of major agenda items with re-forming the tax system and fixing Social Security at the top of the list. He told us, "We will continue our economic progress. We will reform our outdated tax code. We will strengthen the Social Security for the next generation. We will make public schools all they can be, and we will uphold our deepest values of family and faith [as] we help the emerging democracies of Iraq and Afghanistan."
The President says he has political capital and he plans to spend it. It may be wise to do so sooner rather than later. There's an urgent reason why, besides the fact that he will be a lame duck in two years and besides the "history and legacy" thing. Time is not on our side.
President Bush is likely to have the misfortune of entering his presidential career with a recession (compounded by 9-11) and also having a recession in his second term. Not his fault, of course, but unfortunate timing nonetheless. Let me present a brief case for a recession, what it might look like and then we can examine the political consequences.
The Mid-Term Recession
Bush did the right thing for the economy during the last recession. He lowered taxes again and again. Luckily, the Fed had plenty of ammunition to fight the recession, aggressively lowering interest rates and avoiding deflation. The consumers helped by refinancing against their home values, resulting in the very positive twin combination of lower mortgage payments and cash-out borrowing, allowing them to spend more than they made. Even in the face of 9-11 and massive debt and trade imbalances, the combination of such massive stimulus helped engineer a very shallow recession.
The problem is that we will not have these recession fighting tools when we enter the next recession. Interest rates will likely be no more than 3%. Even cutting rates to zero will not be much stimulus, as the last 1% is mostly psychological. If a deal can't get done with interest rates at 1%, it is unlikely to get done at 0%. As much as I would like, there are no more tax cuts available which would provide any significant stimulus. Mortgage rates would have to drop to 4.5% or lower to allow home owners to re-finance and lower their costs. However, such low rates would indicate that we would already be in a much worse recession than last time.
Yes, I know that the economy is growing at a 3% plus rate. Let's look into those last GDP reports. Third quarter GDP at 3.7% was less than the consensus 4.3%. But there is a problem with that number. Those handy economists which figure such things first look at nominal growth and then subtract inflation to get the "real GDP." This number, the one they subtract, is called the GDP deflator. Interestingly, we find that number falling from 3.2% in the second quarter to 1.3% in the third quarter - the quarter in which energy and industrial commodity prices soared, as well as health care and other labor costs.
1.3% looks suspiciously small. Of course, if it was higher, then the economy grew less. If it was the same as in the second quarter, that means the economy would only have grown a coincidental 1.3%. Not exactly robust for an election period. Oh, well, there are two more revisions to get it right.
But let's suppose that deflator thingie (a technical term) is right. That might be a worse problem. That would indicate that not only is inflation very benign, but deflation is "coming back." Being close to zero would not be good going into a recession. In order to keep us out of deflation, the Fed would have to use what they call "unconventional methods." Basically, that means "moving out the yield curve" and fixing longer term rates. No one really knows whether or not that would work, but you can bet the Fed will use that and other unconventional methods to avoid allowing the US economy to slip into Japanese disease. The likely result is a serious drop in the dollar and stagflation.
You might read a paper by Dr. Ben Bernanke of the Fed and then call him up for lunch and get his private take. Oh, and ask about how they would deal with the potentially massive losses of money by the Fed when they fix ten year rates and rates eventually go back up. Who pays? The US Treasury as one Fed paper suggested? The conspiracy crowd will go nuts over that one.
Today's job number was the first really good one in some time. A lot of economists think it was due to those who lost jobs from the Florida hurricanes coming back on board.
But there are signs of a weakening economy. Of course, high oil and energy prices are not good for the economy. Unemployment as an average over the last six months is not outstanding for a 3% plus economy. We are not producing enough jobs to simply keep up with population growth. Eventually this halts growth in consumer spending. Real incomes are rising slower than spending. Corporate earnings are decelerating, which suggests a slowing stock market after we get past the usual post-election boomlet. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is looking soft. If you adjust the yield curve for a "normal" (not Fed controlled) rate, it is flatter than is comfortable, which is a prelude to an inverted yield curve.
(You probably know Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Management from your Austin days. He's one of the best and brightest economists around. Call him up and ask him for a few thoughts on what the yield curve is saying about the economy.)
Interest rates are not rising. Some think this is the bond market telling us that things are softer then they look. Oh, and pullease do not trot out the rosy predictions of some group like the Blue Chip Economists. They have never predicted a recession in advance. You could bring a recession up to them and introduce it personally and they still wouldn't have a clue.
While we are dealing in such dark thoughts, let's look at one side effect of a recession. It always results in a significant drop in the stock market. On average, the market drops about 43%. An aging boomer population would see its retirement accounts once again hit hard, and have to face postponing retirement. Not a good environment for a mid-term election, let alone getting Congress (and especially the Senate) to cooperate on anything substantial. Everything, especially risk-taking by politicians on legislation, tends to freeze in the face of problems with getting re-elected.
(Well, not everything. Rhetoric, blaming and posturing tend to increase dramatically.)
The Bush Recession?
The coming recession is no one's fault, and especially the President's, just like the boom of the 90's was not caused by Clinton. It is part of the normal business cycle, but the Dem's will call it the Bush Recession no matter what. Now you and I know that there is very little government can do about the business cycle. Congress cannot repeal it. All they can do is try and reduce regulations and laws which hurt business and then get out of the way. (More on that later.)
The good news is that right now 2005 looks like it will be ok for the first three quarters at the very least. We may be able to dodge the bullet until mid-to-late 2006, but any longer is problematic. That's not being a Cassandra. That's being realistic. The market will probably anticipate a recession and turn into a real bear, cutting down the time to act.
That gives "us" one year in which to effect fundamental changes that will make the world better for our kids.
Social Security must be reformed. Now. Let's be realistic. If we do have a serious recession, it is quite possible we will see a Democrat in the White House in 2008. That means 2012 at the earliest for any real reform, and it will cost hundreds of billions (if not a few trillion) more. This is one we must do for the kids.
Now I will suggest a heresy. The think tanks you and I trust suggest true Social Security reform is going to cost about $1 trillion. Privatization is not cheap, but it lets our kids have a chance to retire in a world where the government will not be bankrupt and gives them actual cash for their retirement. Guarantee the current system for those who are older or want to stay in the system. (Hey, I'm 55 and would opt out in a heart beat if I could. Give me 20 years of my SS payments and see what I turn it into. A lot more than I would get from any future SS payment. But then again, I am not planning on retiring.)
If you could tie a small directed tax on upper income types like me which would specifically pay for reform (no funny accounting games) and would go away once the bill was paid in a few decades, you might be able to get that through with the voter base and Congress. As much as I think taxes are too high, I would be willing to pony up a few points if it keeps our kids from having to deal with a much worse problem down the road.
If you tie it in with fundamental tax reform it might help bring enough Dems on board to get some real changes. (They get a chance to tax the "rich" for this one purpose and we get reform.) Getting rid of the income tax and going to a national sales tax would be even better. Such a structural change would power the economy into the next big wave. Think of the hundreds of billions (literally) that would be saved on tax preparation and filing, not to mention the management and personal time lost. It would also help unemployment and soften the blow of the next recession. If there was ever a time it could be done, it will be in the next two years.
Now that would be a major legacy.
Frankly, spending a little now to avoid a real crisis later is a good investment. In a future crisis over social security, whatever my assets are will not do well, and we both know our taxes will rise even more.
Speaking of employment, it is time to pull out all the stops now. As an example, there is a real telecom reform bill winding through Congress. Put it on the front burner. It is a jobs bill, as long as you can keep the old dinosaur telecoms from watering it down. Tort reform and litigation control would bring down costs and allow business to hire more people. Everything that can be done to better the employment picture should be done now.
How many free trade zones can we get done in the next two years? I know there is one under way with Thailand, but we need to expand the concept. Free trade is good for US jobs. [Note- The US has added for more jobs because of our free trade agreements than we have lost. Yes, a few industries have been hurt, but many more have been helped.]
Why not do something radical and help the world at the same time? Why not propose a free trade zone with all of Africa and the next 20 poorest countries who will reciprocate?
It should go without saying that those embarrassing steel tariffs, bra tariffs, lumber tariffs and such should never again be broached in polite company. Those that still exist should quietly be done away with. The steel tariffs cost more jobs than the few they saved, are obviously (in hindsight) completely unnecessary, and didn't help us carry Pennsylvania anyway. It hurts our credibility when we talk free trade and then turn around and impose tariffs.
This is the time to deal with the national deficit. Putting an absolute hold on increased spending is a no-brainer. Run fixed, no increase budgets for a few years and the deficit drops quickly.
In a recession, tax receipts are going to go down. If we do not simply clamp down on spending now, then deficits will explode in during a recession. We do NOT want to be running a campaign of four more years of eye-popping deficits in 2008.
The outrageously high farm subsidies have got to go - phase them out or cut them out if possible. We simply can't afford them. If an expenditure is not nailed down, then cut it as well. Remember when we used to talk about how less government was better? Now is the time to actually enact some of that agenda.
And while we are reforming taxes, let's reform the corporate taxes as well. Simplify the structure and close the loopholes. It can be revenue neutral, but it should get simpler.
The only way we are going to get control of healthcare is by wider use of Medical Savings Accounts. Expand the program. It is probably asking too much to get a real handle on this problem (which is worse than all the others combined), with the rest of the things that need to be done, but we can put a down payment on it.
Boomers are going to need to be able to save more. Expand the IRA contributions, especially the Roth IRAs. That will also be a boost to the economy in the form of higher savings
The 2008 Election - It's the Economy, Stupid
Let talk about the future, the 2008 elections and the Bush legacy. Let's speculate about the political landscape. We are essentially out of Iraq and Afghanistan. (If we're not, we are in big trouble.) Osama Bin Laden is dead or captured, and we have made a lot of progress in the War on Terror. The dollar has dropped another 20-25% and the Chinese have floated their currency, and the trade deficit is coming down. The French still don't like us, but nobody really cares. Thus the focus of the electorate is not going to be foreign policy or war.
We will be coming out of a recession, one that was deeper than anything we have seen in 25 years. (By the way, that probably means a world-wide recession as well.) We probably have mild stagflation. Interest rates are up so housing prices are flat or down. That will not be good for consumer sentiment, which is strongly tied to housing values. By definition, unemployment is up in a recession, and probably higher than it has been since 1991. The market is down and trying to climb back up, but those estimates of 9% compound returns that every pension fund, both public and private, have made has not come true. Many are in deep trouble. The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation is in trouble if we did not fix it in 2005-2006.
People, especially boomers, are going to be worried about their retirement. They will be saving more than they ever have, plus paying down debt, but that will cut into consumer spending and slow the recovery. The good times that the next president will enjoy and take credit for (everything goes in cycles) is not yet evident. (Was Clinton lucky to win when he did or what? Or maybe better, was he ever lucky that Perot decided to run?)
Bill King, the bond god over at Pimco, says we will have to deal with Hillary in 2008. We should be so lucky. My bet is the Dems find another Clinton clone without the blue dress and negative history. Someone who can feel their pain and articulate their angst. Even though demographics and the conservative tide are on our side, from time to time that tide goes out.
While we have a better and deeper bench for potential presidential candidates than the Dems (Giuliani, McCain, Frist, Ridge, Condie Rice (!), among others), they only need one person. Couple him (or her) with Barack Obama as VP, and their ticket is formidable coming off a recession.
How do we beat it? By first stacking up major and fundamental changes in the next two years. We must make this the party that saved Social Security, that reformed and lowered your taxes, that gave you bigger retirement account deductions, that preserved your freedom in a world of terror, that opened up new markets, saved us from the trial lawyers and helped schools, kept a conservative Supreme Court, etc., etc.
And by talking at all times and in every place we can that government does not create jobs. It just taxes them. The best we can do is to get out of the way. Give ALL the credit, and repeatedly, for the current recovery to American business. No more "we" did anything. If we helped create the jobs, if government takes credit, we will get blamed when they go.
Can it work? I don't know. We could get lucky and the Dems self-destruct by nominating another Massachusetts (or New York) liberal. But I seriously doubt that will happen. My early bet is that 2008 is even harder and nastier than this election.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://goldseek.com/news/Strai…-8%20stomc/germancoin.PNG]

1923, in der großen Inflation, war die 20 Reichsmark Goldmünze mehr als 20 Mal so viel wert, wie der unten abgebildete 1000 Milliarden Mark Geldschein.

Who Wants to be a Billionaire?
http://news.goldseek.com/StraightTalkOnMining/1100016001.php

Preis des Edelmetalls steigt auf neues 16-Jahres-Hoch - Investmentchancen mit Minenaktien und Zertifikaten
von Daniel Eckert

Berlin - Es ist schon fast wie beim Rohöl, wo die Investment-Profis ihre Preisprognosen ständig nach oben anpassen müssen. Bedingt durch die jüngste rasante Rallye auf dem Goldmarkt sehen sich die Experten der großen Geldhäuser auch bei dem Edelmetall gezwungen, ihre Vorhersagen nahezu monatlich hochzuschrauben. So hält Goldman Sachs für 2005 nun 420 Dollar statt wie bisher 400 Dollar je Feinunze für wahrscheinlich. Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) mußte das Preisziel sogar ein Fünftel von 350 auf 420 Dollar heraufsetzen. Merrill Lynch rechnet für kommendes Jahr mit einem Durchschnittspreis von 440 Dollar. Und die Deutsche Bank sieht die Notierungen des gelben Metalls zur Jahreswende 2005/2006 gar bei 460 Dollar.

Die Dynamik auf dem Goldmarkt läßt den Experten keine andere Wahl. Gestern verzeichnete der Rohstoff mit mehr als 435 Dollar je Feinunze im asiatischen Handel ein neues 16-Jahres-Hoch. Im europäischen Handel ging der Preis am Nachmittag zwar leicht auf rund 432 Dollar zurück. Doch im letzten halben Jahr hat der Rohstoff insgesamt 15 Prozent an Wert gewonnen.

Nichts deutet im Moment darauf hin, daß der Höhenflug schon bald zu Ende sein könnte. Vor allem mit der Wiederwahl George W. Bushs sehen die Auguren sämtliche Faktoren bestätigt, die Gold zu seinem jetzigen Höhenflug verholfen haben. "Eine zweite Amtszeit für Bush bedeutet größere Haushalts- und Handelsbilanzdefizite", sagt Graham Birch, Asset Manager bei Merrill Lynch in London, der Vermögen im Wert von 6,5 Mrd. Dollar verwaltet, "das drückt den Wert des Greenbacks und stärkt im Gegenzug das Gold." Traditionell steigt das Edelmetall vor allem dann, wenn der Dollar sich abschwächt (und umgekehrt), da Investoren die eine Anlageklasse als Alternative zur anderen ansehen. "Diese negative Korrelation zwischen Gold und Dollar liegt bei über 80 Prozent und ist damit sehr stark ausgeprägt", erklärt Michael Lewis, Analyst bei der Deutschen Bank in London.

Doch die Defizit-Politik des US-Präsidenten (siehe Grafik) ist nicht der einzige Grund für den starken Goldpreis. "Auch die Außenpolitik Bushs könnte die Notierungen weiter nach oben treiben", sagt Birch und spielt damit auf mögliche Zuspitzungen am Persischen Golf oder auf der koreanischen Halbinsel an. Ohnehin ist die Welt mit der unsicheren Lage in Palästina, der Krise an der Elfenbeinküste und den Kämpfen im Irak nicht gerade arm an geopolitischen Brennpunkten. Bereits in der ersten Amtzeit Bushs gehörte das Gold mit einem Wertzuwachs von rund 60 Prozent zu den besten Assetklassen.

Andere Marktkenner nennen als Grund für die Goldhausse weniger die steigende Nachfrage, sondern des zurückgehende Angebot. "Anders als von vielen Akteuren erwartet, werfen die Zentralbanken doch nicht in großem Maßstab Gold auf den Markt", meint Martin Siegel, Manager des Fonds PEH-Q-Goldmines. Das im September erneuerte Washingtoner Abkommen erlaube den Geldhütern zwar, bis zu 600 Tonnen Gold zu verkaufen. Kaum eine große Notenbank mache jedoch davon Gebrauch, so daß 20 Prozent des potentiellen jährlichen Angebots flachfielen.

Angesichts des nun wieder rasant anziehenden Goldpreises (der sich überproportional in den Gewinnen der Fördergesellschaften niederschlägt) sehen viele Experten auch wieder Kurspotential bei den Minenaktien. Unmittelbar nach der Wiederwahl Bushs schossen vor allem nordamerikanische Digger-Papiere nach oben. Kinross legten 13 Prozent, Wheaton River und Placer Dome 7,5 Prozent und Meridian 5,4 Prozent zu. Trotz dieser jüngsten Mini-Hausse raten die Experten von CSFB bei Barrick, Placer Dome und Agnico-Eagle weiter zum Kauf. Gold-Experte Siegel setzt in seinem Fonds auf Croesus Mining, Oceana und Wheaton River.

Für Edelmetall-optimistische Anleger, denen Investments in einzelnen Minenaktien zu risikobehaftet sind, bieten sich verschiedene Fonds und Zertifikate als Alternative an. Gut abgeschnitten haben in den letzten 24 Monaten die Produkte MLIIF World Gold A (LU0055631609) und Swissica Equity Gold (CH0001223822). Mit Quanto-Zertifikaten, zum Beispiel aus dem Hause ABN Amro, können Anleger auf einen steigenden Goldpreis spekulieren, ohne sich den Kopf zerbrechen zu müssen, daß die Währungsentwicklung ihre Kursgewinne wieder aufzehrt.

Artikel erschienen in die Welt am Di, 9. November 2004

Zitat

Original von hpopth

habe eine Buch Empfehlung für Dich. Roland Baader brinngt ein neues Buch auf den Markt mit dem Titel:

Geld, Gold und Gottspieler

auf den Markt.

Alles anzeigen

Hallo hpoth,

danke für Deinen Büchertip. Klingt wirklich sehr interessant. Ich gehe davon aus, Du hast es bereits gelesen und für gut befunden ...

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

November 8 – Gold $432.50 down 40 cents – Silver $7.47 unchanged

Strong Cash Gold Market Giving Gold Cartel Fits

I know the price of success: dedication, hard work, and an unremitting devotion to the things you want to see happen...Frank Lloyd Wright

GO GATA!!!

When I went to bed last night, gold was up $2 and starting to do what it ought to after such a dramatic day on Friday and after making 16-year highs. However, as we know, gold has traded like no other market in history over the over the past half-decade+. It rarely trades as it should from a technical standpoint. Of course, we understand why. It is a managed market.

Today was no different than so many other times over the past many years. Gold was stuffed by The Gold Cartel at the $430+ level AGAIN. It makes little difference to them whether gold is $435 or $427. They will just sell more to do what they can to keep the price from getting away from them. We know this is so because of the growing open interest, up another 7,365 contracts to a new record of 331,018. The specs keep piling in and the price managers keep selling.

In addition, the cabal continues to make sure gold goes nowhere in many other currencies. Here is part of the general enthusiasm/investment interest problem – from a Café member very involved in the financial markets in Europe:

Hi Bill,
While you guys enjoy the break through the 430 USD/oz barrier, there is nothing to celebrate in Europe.
The gold price in EUR is one beautiful distribution formation.
And very easy for the Powers-that-be to hedge their short gold positions with a currency-contract...
Regards
Bart

Then this additional comment followed:

Hey Bill,
Great day on Friday!

Anyway, isn't is amazing how "they" won't let POG rise above Euro 344? I mean, Trichet today said he WANTS a weaker Euro, but still POG doesn't rise so much as a cent against it.

The chinks in the armor are expanding.
Andrew

It is remarkable how limited the thinking is about gold vis-à-vis foreign currencies in the establishment world. The analysts are blind as bats and extremely ignorant. Gold has been held in check against the euro, etc. It is the manner in which Gold Cartel has rigged the price. No need to go into the cap, cap drill for the 1000th time. However, it is important to mention this gold world blind spot to demonstrate a significant reason most gold analysts don’t comprehend why the price is going to explode at some point in the near future. They are clueless even with so much GATA evidence staring them in the face.

Meanwhile, The Gold Cartel’s efforts to send gold back down below $430 were rebuffed today. The reason: the same one brought to your attention all the way up to these price levels: the physical market is on fire. There is tremendous competition for supply on every dip. The cabal induced gold to trade down to $430.60 during the Comex trading session and that was that. Back up she went.

Here is a BIG POTENTIAL POSITIVE. The gold spreads are blowing out. Not long ago the December/June spread was running at $5 June premium. Friday it blew out to $5.90 and today it closed at $6.10. OK, so why the big deal?

Before gold went nuts in 1979, the spreads did the same thing about two weeks before gold went ballistic. Perhaps we are looking at the same pre-market, take-off occurrence? There is a good chance many traders are looking at inflation REALLY accelerating in the US. If so, interest rates will shoot up – bond yields will head north. This will increase the contango (spread between the futures markets trading months). Gold exploded in 1979/1980 on inflation fears. Those fears may be creeping their way back into the thinking of the more sophisticated traders out there.

Early today our floor sources were pleased to see the amount of scale down buy orders on their books, figuring it was this way on many other books on the floor. Early morning they felt price setbacks would be well cushioned. This became evident by the close.

Silver fell 8 cents, took off to the plus side for 8 cents, and then settled down to a nothing day. The open interest rose 1742 contracts to 120,756.

The Comex silver stocks DROPPED once more, falling 591,940 ounces to 103,067,278 and another new low for the move. This is bad news for the silver bears.

The dollar rose a whopping .10 to 84.17 and the euro fell .23 to 129.23.

Crude oil slipped 52 cents to 49.09.

The John Brimelow Report

A Fallujah gold market?

Monday, November 08, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.16, PM $7.91, with world gold at $434.45 and $432.65. Ample for legal imports. The India Central Bank had to intervene heavily to check the rupee’s surge today, notwithstanding which it closed at an import-facilitating 5 month high. The Bombay Stock Exchange closed at an 8 month high having risen 4% last week. The rupee is being bolstered by foreign portfolio investment inflows, reported today to have reached $5.8 billion this year compared to $6.7 billion for the whole of last year, having accelerated since the summer lull. The recent decline in oil prices is adding momentum too.

India looks set to be a major buyer of world gold in the immediate future.

Japan also seems to have been a buyer. Open interest rose the equivalent of 1,753 Comex lots and, according to Mitsubishi, the "General Public" long jumped 6.4 tonnes, or 2,058 Comex lots. The active contract closed up 12 yen and world gold stood at $434.80 at the end of Tokyo trading, $1.55 above the NY close. Reuters once again refers to bullion buying by the retail public in Japan. Volume was equal to 18,464 Comex lots (+3%). (In NY on Friday 83,754 contracts traded, 10% more than estimated; open interest jumped 7,365 lots to a new record of 331,018.)

If Standard London’s prices are to be believed, premiums in the Gulf remain, hardly surprisingly, firm.

However, although world gold made and held new 16 year highs for several hours during the early Asian day, there was considerable opposition. Mitsubishi remarks gold was:

"…offered above 434.00 by US profit taking selling…and spot gold was gradually weighed by dealers offer… capped by weak Loco LDn gold …While EUR/USD was traded around 1.2970/1.2985, spot Gold was capped by dealers long liquidation… Saw good Public buying on Tocom."

Mitsui-HK simply remarks

"Resting offers provide

Prices on the Shanghai Exchange have one again fallen to deep ($2 ½ - $3 ½) - discounts to world gold: from the vantage point of physical prices, China continues to act as a dampener on world gold.

For once, the usually accurate UBS commentary seems wrong: they say:

"In Asia this morning gold made new 16 years highs this morning as more speculative buying was seen that outweighed light physical and Tocom general public selling."

Tokyo in fact seems, according to the statistics to have been a buyer, while ACCESS volume was not particularly heavy. UBS is concerned to argue that the gold price rise is simply a facet of the dollar:

"The failure of the metal to move higher in non-US dollar terms demonstrates that there is no reason to own gold at the moment, a point we have made on a number of occasions recently."

Perhaps this suits the overall House view: it does not accord with the physical market.

Friday’s refusal to collapse in the aftermath of the payroll data was, it now materializes, an event involving heavy volume and substantial buying (and consequently, selling) rather than being a simple echo of dollar movements. Barclays suggests the alleged advent of the NYSE gold ETF is beginning to effect trading. But given the timing and geographical origin of the gold buoyancy, this looks more properly like a Fallujah rather than an ETF market. The Canadian broker Doug Pollitt is quoted on Bloomberg saying:

"Four more years of Bush is a gift to the gold markets – more war, more deficits, more divisions"

Putting aside the fairness of this assessment, it looks as if it is a view widely shared to the East, as well as the North.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW held its ground at 10,391, up 4, while the DOG was steady at 2039.

07:31 ECB's Trichet says recent appreciation by euro/dollar is "brutal"
Says the moves are not welcome.
* * * * *

A number of Café members were waiting to learn what Bill King would have to say about Friday’s surprising US job numbers:

The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Monday Nov. 8, 2004 – Issue 3033 "Independent View of the News"

The market has absorbed the shock of a much larger than expected non-farm payroll number. And because of the preeminence of wise guy trading, the analysis of the Employment Report will commence after the knee-jerk market reaction.

The details, as usual, are not as jiggy as the Employment Report on first blush implies. Job growth appears to be the result of the hurricanes and the election. Construction jobs surged by 71k, temp jobs jumped by 48k and government jobs increased by 41k. How many of the tens of thousands lawyers hired to litigate the election and support staff are in the Employment Report?

5k manufacturing jobs were lost, a gain of 9k was expected. There was no change in average hourly earnings or the number of hours worked per week. Income growth is still abysmal.

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported that wages and salaries grew only 2.4 percent over the past year. That's the lowest one-year pace on record - and it lags behind inflation, which clocked in at 2.7 percent. It's nice to see consumption up. But these numbers show it's being fueled by borrowing, not fatter paychecks, and that is worrisome." http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/06/opinion/06sat3.html?th

Grant Noble: "The U.S. economy has 2.7 million fewer manufacturing jobs and 1.26 million fewer private sector jobs now than when George W. Bush was inaugurated…The only areas of job growth are in government, restaurants and bars, education and health services, construction, and credit intermediation. During October U.S. manufacturing lost another 5,000 jobs. Charles W. McMillion, president of MBG Information Services, reports that hours worked for non-managerial manufacturing workers have declined 7.6% since the current recovery began - an unprecedented development."

-END-

The latest heads-up on the yuan chatter:

No timetable for yuan adjustment-China bankers

SHANGHAI, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Comments from two Chinese central bankers suggested on Monday that Beijing will resist pressure from the United States and other trade partners for a quick revaluation of its yuan currency.

Wang Yu, secretary-general of the country's monetary policy committee, was quoted in the state-owned Securities Times as saying that China would maintain a stable monetary and yuan policy as it keeps a racing economy in check.

And the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, Guo Shuqing, told reporters in Basel, Switzerland: "FX policy (is towards) a markets-based floating system ... (we have) no timetable."

China, the world's seventh-largest economy, raised interest rates for the first time in nine years last month, triggering speculation that Beijing could move at any time to revalue the currency.

Washington is pressing for such a move, arguing that current rates put Chinese exporters at an artificial advantage….

-END-

The beat goes on over the corruption on Wall Street:

Drudge reports: "Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating dozen brokerage firms -- including Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Ameritrade, Charles Schwab and E Trade Financial -- on suspicion they failed to secure best available price for stocks for customers." http://www.drudgereport.com/ ***

Good input from Aussie Land on what seems to be a "building" pattern around the globe:

Dear Bill,
Catching up on my periodicals (I am an architect) I found some ominous items in the weekly magazine, "Building" , 8 October 2004, published in England by The Builder Group. I quote directly as follows:

Page 21.

"Bank predicts 2% deflation in house prices next year.

INVESTMENT BANK Numis Securities has downgraded its housebuilding forecasts, modifying its previously bullish predictions.

Numis said that because the housing market had slowed more quickly than expected, it now expected that there would be a 2% deflation in prices next year. This compares with its previous forecast of no fall for the same period.

Director Mark Hughes said: For 2005 we do not subscribe to the view held by many that house price inflation will soften to a level where it is in line with wage inflation and general cost inflation of 4-5%. .....

Numis is expecting the housing sector to perform less buoyantly than originally predicted in the next six months, and has modified its sector stance to reflect this.

It has downgraded forecasts for companies including....(lists ten top large housebuilding companies in UK ). It said that it expected other analysts to follow suit in the next four months.

Page 22

Leading cement supplier warns of 15% price hike.

CASTLE Cement, UK's third largest cement producer, this week warned the industry to expect a cement price increase of up to 15% in the first quarter of next year.

Mike Eberling, Castle's commercial director, said: "We want to warn the builders and contractors about the sheer size of these costs."

Eberling said that as the price of coal and electricity was set to rise by 20% and 50% respectively, the company faced no option but to increase its own prices.

" These increases have a disproportianate effect on cement manufacture because it is such an energy intensive process."

The hike in energy costs is mainly driven by a booming demand in China, which in turn has driven up coal and shipping prices."

In Sydney we recently had a 15% price rise in structural and reinforcing steel; in one step. Add this to a hike in cement, thence reinforced concrete; you can imagine what happens to the cost of a building. These are not real estate bubbles based on hype, but ordinary arithmatic driving the price. It starts with energy. We, that is the world, have to find cheaper forms of it.

Bill, these two items from UK are as typical for Australia as for UK and I suppose it will be the same in USA. They form a vyce, squeezing the builders from both sides. Costs beyond the control of the builder cause his sales price to rise, so there are these outcomes.

1. Builder cuts his profit to keep the sales price affordable and heads for self -inflicted bankruptcy, or/and
2. Builder raises the price, does't sell in a reasonable time and goes out backwards with holding costs or/and
3. Builder stops building, so do all the others, and the housing industry crashes.
4. No houses being built, people cannot find homes to buy at any price.
5. Crunch.

In Sydney where I live, it recently became obvious to the market that prices had been increasing faster than incomes. The buyers got left behind, and they have stopped buying. The market has not crashed but has slowed down seriously. This is what Cafe members have been discussing for sometime for the USA market. You are not alone.
Regards,
Chris McGuirk

The excess dollar problem is making its mark around the world, slowly but surely (for the moment):

Bill,
Thought you might be interested in this. Colombia is one of the few countries in the world that manufactures almost its total domestic product. There is a large amount of wealth created there by these legitimate businesses, other than what our government would like most to believe. Recently I ordered several thousand board feet of this beautiful purple hardwood for our new home from a Colombian who is selling his wares here in Panama.

Yesterday he came to me to ask what in the world was happening as he was taking a bath on this load of lumber as the Colombian Peso was rising in value so fast that the country is AWASH in US Dollars. Seems everyone is trying to get out of the dollar and into the peso. Of course I was trading dollars for something of real value, hardwoods. This is so bad, he is going to be forced to cover the spread on the initial container of wood which will cost him about $.10 a board foot!

Yet this is a statement of what is going on in most of South America right now. The fall in the dollars value is beginning to effect street level functions in countries who have shed their own currency for years, in an effort to flee to the dollar as it was rising. Now, these dollar holders are forced to shed the dollar at an almost alarming pace to try and stave off another loss in business due to the fluctuation of currencies with no value.

Auckland Ed has a heads-up for us:

Hi Bill:
Check the attached report. It speaks for itself.
ONLY 6.6 tonnes of GOLD sold as of Oct 27th under the 2nd Washington
agreement.

CBGA_table.pdf

Cheers from Auckland

There is some hoopla about the SEC approving the long-awaited World Gold Council’s ETF, whose launch is ONLY a year behind schedule. What is sickening is the timing of the probable approval – right AFTER the US elections. Just more evidence how the establishment works to achieve their own agendas when it comes to gold.

zu obigem Artikel, weiss aber nicht ob man verlinken kann

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/CBGA_table.pdf

SEC close to backing new gold ETF
By Kevin Morrison in London
Published: November 7 2004 21:43 | Last updated: November 7 2004 21:43

The long wait for a new listed gold investment product backed by the World Gold Council and State Street Securities may soon be over, with the US Securities and Exchange Commission expected to approve the product, a first of its kind to be listed on a US stock exchange.

The WGC, an industry body financed by some of the world's largest gold miners, and State Street, the US group, are expected to meet next week to finalise details of a marketing programme for the new product, which will allow investors to buy gold without worrying about storage, insurance or transportation costs, or the risk of margin calls associated with gold futures.

Precious metals traders and fund managers said talk of an imminent approval from the SEC was a factor behind the run up in the bullion price to a 16-year high of $433.90 a troy ounce on Friday as hedge funds were taking positions in the futures market last week in anticipation of the launch of a new product.

The gold investment instrument will be an exchange traded fund (ETF), which are very popular for US investors as they track stock indices for a lower cost than index-based managed funds.

The product, which may be listed by the end of the year on the New York Stock Exchange, will be an open-ended fund and track the gold price, with each unit equal to one-tenth of an ounce of gold.

If approved it would end an 18-month wait for the London-based WGC, which first filed for the product originally called Equity Gold Trust in May 2003. One of the factors why it has taken so long is because it represents a landmark decision for the SEC.

There is no investment product listed on a US stock exchange that is backed by a commodity because pension funds are largely prohibited from taking a direct investment in a commodity. It could also potentially pave the way for more ETF-style funds backed by commodities.

Barclays Global Investors has also filed a gold ETF investment proposal with the SEC.

Another factor that the SEC had to overcome was the fact that the new gold investment product was to be controlled by the WGC, an industry advocate. However, it is understood that WGC plans to eventually sell the company that will administer the ETF to State Street.

-END-

On the action of the big hedgers:

Bill,
The letter about Sons of Gwalia by Martin Hastings reminded me that when SOG went under, and Franklin Gold was first mentioned as a shareholder, I had checked out Franklin's portfolio. I wondered how a fund could invest so much money in a notorious hedger like SOG. Well, I guess Franklin's managers likes hedgers. As of today their top 4 holdings are Placer Dome Mining (8.30%), Anglogold Ashanti (7.90%), Barrick Gold (7.20%) and Newcrest Mining Ltd. (6.60%) . This fund looks like a great way to support the Cabal and miss out on a lot of profit, too. When gold breaks out, Franklin's top holdings will likely join SOG in bankruptcy court. You GATA own gold, not owe gold!
best wishes,
Peter R.

On the GATA story showing up in various ways:

Dear Bill
I refer you to the following publication.
http://www.citigold.com/whyinvestingoldnow.html
This is proof that not all gold companies sit back and say nothing about the gold price suppression. Please give this company some press on your site....they are one of the "good guys".
Regards
Mark Treloar

The commentary on this site of most interest from GATA’s standpoint:

"Governments and central banks have been suppressing the price of gold since 1995 by lending and selling their gold. They won’t be able to keep it up forever. Then the price of gold and silver will soar."

The gold shares continue to act as if gold is going to back to $400. The XAU fell .33 to 106.53. The HUI can’t get out of its own way and dropped 3.29 to 235.07. The HUI needs to blow through 240 to get back on track.

My largest position precious metals stocks continue to be clobbered. In addition to Golden Star Resources, Samex and ECU Silver have been hit, most likely due to related margin calls from Golden Star’s plunge (it is the only marginable stock I own). I have another call into GSS management to answer some questions and will let you know what I find out. The Golden Star CEO and Treasurer are in Ghana at the moment.

I waited 6 years for gold to do what it is doing now. Instead of enjoying the moment, I spent half my day fielding GSS rumors like:

*I have dumped all my shares
*The Gold Cartel is going after Golden Star because they know it is my largest position
*Golden Star is going to acquire another company
*Something is terribly amiss
*It is another Enron
*Tribal unrest in Ghana (not the Ivory Coast) has natives in an uprising in Ghana and lopping off heads (Brother Tim says they are having a 50% hats off sale in the country)

C’est La Vie, or La Guerre in this case. Anyways, what a short-term nightmare! Only money remember. My current opinion is all this panic selling is nuts.

The most powerful people in the world do not want gold to go up from here. We know that. The ponderation is whether they can stop the price from doing so. My bet is they cannot because the physical market is just too strong. Never before have the Indian premiums acted like this on such market strength. Never before have the Indians had to compete against such other powerful buying interests.

In addition, it is remarkable how little excitement there is out there with gold doing what it has this past month AND with the war raging in Fallujah in Iraq. Extraordinary! It seems the biggest, smartest money around the world wants in on gold and silver and the general investing public could care less. I find this to be very bullish for the weeks ahead.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

By Peter Brimelow
CBS.MarketWatch.com
Monday, November 8, 2004

NEW YORK -- Gold's spot price closed at $434.30 on Friday -- its highest level since December 1988. It's been trending relentlessly upward since May.

But the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Indicator, which reflects the average recommended exposure to the gold market among a subset of gold-timing letters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, is only at 57.41 percent. It has not moved for some time.

This stolidity is in dramatic contrast to the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average equity market exposure among a subset of short-term market-timing newsletters.

As of Friday night, the HSNSI stood at 55.07 percent -- up from 48.9 percent the day before and 27.9 percent in September.

Mark Hulbert has concluded that on a contrarian analysis, this stampede of bullishness suggests that the post-election stock rally is overdone.

But he doesn't feel that way about the gold rally. It just hasn't attracted the same enthusiasm from the letters monitored by the HFD. So -- Hulbert tells me -- it may go on.

Similarly, the gold stock indexes -- the Amex Gold Bugs index (HUI) and the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) -- are well below their recent highs.

Over the weekend, the Australian gold service The Privateer.com came up with this quote:

"'Interest is very limited,' sighs Caesar Bryan, manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund (GOLDX), who ruefully concedes to being the longest continuously-serving manager of gold funds in North America. Cash flow is light. 'Anecdotally I hear this is true across the group.'"

The Privateer believes gold is in a major bull market. A close above $440 would signal a breakout.

And then there's the Elliott Wave forecasters grouped around Robert G. Prechter. Paradoxically, Prechter is a long-term gold bull. But he has been calling for a savage short-term bear market in gold -- unless it sends a clear signal that would cause him to review his technical work. That signal used to be "a close beyond $422."

Several readers have been interested to know whether Prechter and his lieutenants at the Elliot Wave Financial Forecast accept that this signal has now been given.

Prechter seems to have quietly forgotten about $422. This is not necessarily a gotcha! offense -- the ultimate test is whether an adviser is right, not how consistent
his arguments are.

Still, the latest Elliott Wave Financial Forecaster says:

"The rally from the May 10 low of $375.70 has carried higher than anticipated, but the overlapping waves of the rise are clearly corrective. ... Gold should be at a top. A downward reversal would be the start of Wave 3, a multi-month decline. As previously noted, a close above the April 1 high [$436.50 basis December] would cloud the picture and require a re-examination of the wave count."

I read this to mean that futures have to close above the April intraday high.

It hasn't happened yet. But it's getting very close.

-END-