Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

The way I see it, market sentiment which is this bearish is not how a significant correction comes into play. One day of good market action (after five down sessions) does not get the bull back in gear. However, this is a good start. A close above $440 spot will do it.

For the moment the shares seem hopeless. It looks like it is going to take a move above $455, or arriving in January to bring in serious buying. Either way, the light bulb is likely to go off all at once. The long-term gold bulls who are sidelined are going to have to compete with first time buyers when gold begins to rocket. Those still owning gold shares after this desultory year won’t sell for anything. The competing bidders are going to have to pay up, way up, to be a part of the historic move up next year in the gold and silver shares. Most of the old gold crowd won’t do so. It will be the momentum crowd which will clean up and make the big bucks.

Gold sold off on the close with The Gold Cartel up to their usual antics. Chuck checked in with this observation:

"The sentiment towards the buck has stayed very bullish here even after today. Good sign. Still it's nauseating to see what happens to gold between 1 and 1:30 and at the end of the day. Nobody thinks twice about it. The gold people are comatose."

Good news: gold in euros settled around 329.40. Gold bounced back in terms of foreign currencies, yet has a long way to go before gold shows independence from the dollar action.

Morgan Stanley was a huge buyer of bullion all session long. Word to me also was the cash market was smoking.

My STALKER source gave a ring this afternoon. The latest:

*Their London Bullion dealer friend came out with his weekly commentary morning London time and well before Comex went into action. This conservative fellow is looking for gold to trade back up to $454 before year-end. Believes the dollar will drop further also.

*Re the STALKER group. The big STALKER (we believe to be the Chinese Government) is 80% done with $1.8 billion of bullion buying. The smaller STALKERS (2, 3, and 4) are 30 to 40% complete. In toto they are around 50% complete with their planned gold purchases.

This is one of the reasons the cash market remains so firm. You have the Indians competing with the Chinese, Russians, Arabs and gold producers trying to cover hedges. This kind of buying is causing fits for the corrupt Gold Cartel, who is trying to flush out the specs so they can get out of their short positions.

Silver recovered without any oomph. The silver open interest fell 2848 contracts to 103,181.

The dollar fell to 82.24, before recovering to 82.44, down .15. The yen rose from the 106 level to 104.88, while the euro gained .48 to 132.84.

The John Brimelow Report

India, open interest Bullish, Gartman, NY opinion bearish, ETF puzzling

Monday, December 13, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.55, PM $8.70, with world gold at $435.50 and $436.45. High; lavish for legal imports. The rupee jumped an import facilitating 1.2% today and the Indian Stock market closed at another record high. The world’s largest buyer of bullion is clearly in a mode to continue bidding the world market for metal.

"Indian rupee up over 1 pct as investment pours in" says one Reuters headline

"India "shines" again as new coalition settles down" is another.

" …economic indicators are robust. Stock prices are rallying and foreigners remain keen investors.

"The investment-led recovery that began 18-24 months ago is continuing to gain momentum, services are buoyant and the manufacturing sector will grow strongly for at least three to four years," said Prasenjit Basu, managing director, Robust Economic Analysis." "

India looks set for continued heavy gold importing – unless world gold rises considerably.

Although India has the courtesy to close for Christmas Day, despite only having a small Christian minority, Bears would be advised to consider that in fact the country - and indeed the other key physical buyer, the Middle East - will really be fully open for business for the rest of 2004. Loud proclamations that the gold market will wind down are likely to prove as fallacious as they did over the Thanksgiving holiday.

World gold crept up steadily for six hours from the Sunday evening open, but without any Japanese enthusiasm. TOCOM volume fell 22% to the equivalent of 18,684 Comex lots as the yen firmed; open interest shaded off the equivalent of 451 Comex. The active contract closed down 8 yen, but world gold went out $1.45 above the NY Friday close. Shanghai, interestingly, is showing $1.50 -$2.00 premiums over world gold. (In NY on Friday traded 57,274 contracts; open interest dropped 5,403 lots (16.8 tonnes). Open interest has now fallen 36,392 contracts – 113.2 tonnes – in three days. It was last at this level in late October.)

During the time the gold ETF (GLD) has reported precisely the same gold holding – 91.3 tonnes – despite having traded over 12 million shares (37.3 tonnes). Very odd.

The Wednesday timing of last week’s sell off neatly maximized the obscurity of its impact, rendering the latest CFTC data, cut off Tuesday, useless. UBS, which is plausible on these matters suggests

"Based on changes in Comex open interest for Wednesday and Thursday, the net long position fell by at least 3 million ounces. and we believe that another 1-2 million ounces of long liquidation took place on Friday to leave the net long position at a maximum of about 17moz, and possibly a million our two ounces …If we assume that the net long position has fallen to about 15 million ounces, then the scale of the sell-off is in line with some of the recent long liquidation events."

In other words, may have run its course. They do caution that usually the process takes more time. Of course, selling binges of this ferocity do not usually start with India an unflinching buyer, either.

The Gartman Letter’s Dennis Gartman today re iterates his advice of Friday to put on a long Silver/short Gold spread. He also insinuates that gold might break $400 soon. To the extent that he reflects a certain segment of professional trading opinion (about 100% in my view), this can be taken as evidence that a fair amount of shorting has already been done.

Gartman also takes the time to resume his jeering at the GATA suspicions about integrity of the gold market:

"The Conspiratorialists have it their way on both sides of the market all the while…

Gold plunged last week because the buyers had become too aggressively over.. although the Conspiratorialists will see this as evidence of manipulation and coercion, we see it as the very normal ebb and flow of speculative capital from one market to another."

Amusingly, on an earlier page he is found acknowledging

"The world, rather obviously, awaits tomorrow's FOMC meeting, but we can only wonder why this is so, for the Fed has made it absolutely certain what we are to expect… we shall agree with that overwhelming consensus conclusion. The Fed has

manipulated the consensus to an extraordinary degree… (JB emphasis)

The concept that opinion and gold price management might overlap is perfectly illustrated by a Bear Stearns essay today entitled

"Oil, Gold and the Growth Outook"

by David Malpass, a simplistic piece of US Financial Asset triumphalism, which advances, as its arguments that complacency is appropriate, the points that the dollar has rebounded, oil has fallen, and (with a chart but no other amplification) the simple observation

"Gold prices have declined from a $456 end-of-day peak on December 3 to $434 today."

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW keeps on rising, up 95 to 10,638. DOG too. It jumped 20 to 2149.

James Turk sent out an open letter to the bullion desk. Did anyone publish it besides GATA, myself on http://www.goldseek.com? Figures, his critics bash him, then do now allow his points to be heard. Pathetic!

So much for China pooping out:

Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- China's retail sales grew 13.9 percent to the second-highest level on record in November as rising incomes spurred consumers to spend more on digital cameras, eating out and decorating their homes.

Sales rose to 496.6 billion yuan ($60 billion) from a year earlier, the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement today. Sales in October rose 14.2 percent to a record 498.3 billion yuan. –END-

US economic news:

08:30 Nov. total retail sales 0.1% vs. consensus (0.1%); ex-auto reported 0.5% vs. consensus +0.3%
Prior total sales revised to +0.8% from +0.2%; ex-auto revised to +1.1% from +0.9
* * * * *

10:00 Oct. Business Inventories reported 0.2% vs. consensus +0.5%
Prior reading revised to 0.0% from 0.1%.
* * * * *

Cardinal Health Plans to Trim 4,200 Jobs
12.13.2004, 12:29 PM

Cardinal Health Inc., a medical products and services company, plans to cut 4,200 jobs, or about 7 percent of its work force, and close 25 offices as part of a three-year restructuring plan, the company said Monday.

Its shares slipped 1.5 percent by midday but are up more than 55 percent in less than two months.

The cuts are part of a previously announced restructuring plan designed to improve earnings by $500 million a year, the company said. Cardinal has about 58,000 employees.

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From Jesse on the bond market:

Most people do not yet realize that the Treasury, independent of the Fed, is doing its own repos to add liquidity to the primary dealers. The 'reasoning' is that the Treasury uses this to get a better return on its surplus funds. The irony of this is that they are out there selling debt, while at the same time buying debt.

It has set a horrendous policy precedent to allow Treasury to tinker with the money supply directly, even if only for brief periods.

Highlights of Treasury Offering

Offering Amount: ………………………………....$12 billion
Maximum Award (50% of Offering Amount): .... $ 6 billion
Description of Offering:
Term: ………………………………….………….. 15 days
Auction numbe r: ………………….………..…….. # 73
Auction date: …………………….…………...…... December 14, 2004
Placement date: …………………………..………. December 15, 2004
Maturity date: ……………………………….…… December 30, 2004
Minimum bid amount: ……………...………....… $10 million with increments of
$1 million

Acceptable collateral: ……………………………. Commercial loans, in a Borrower- in-Custody (BIC) arrangement, are acceptable collateral for this auction, in addition to other collateral acceptable for term investments.
Submission of Bids:

The auction will be conducted in the single-price auction format. All awards will be at the lowest accepted bid rate.

Receipt of Tenders:
Bids must be received by 11:00 AM Eastern Time on the auction day.

Receipt Terms:
By credit to a reserve account at the Federal Reserve Bank on placement date.
Additional Information: http://fms.treas.gov/tip/index.html-

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Could not agree more with Kelvin Williams on this one:

Gold not dependant on dollar weakness
David McKay
Posted: Mon, 13 Dec 2004

[miningmx.com] -- GOLD would not be derailed from its upward price trend even if the dollar stabilised against the Euro, said Kelvin Williams, marketing director for AngloGold Ashanti. In an interview with miningmx, Williams said political instability and economic uncertainty were enough to keep supporting the price of gold…

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Mr. Gartman is at it again in his Letter this morning:

Turning to gold and the conspiracy theories that surrounded the sale of 15 tonnes of gold from the GLD ETF mid-week last week, which GATA and others are calling evidence of the manipulation they see taking place everywhere in the gold market over the past several years, we note thecomments by one of our readers, a ranking officer in a gold mining company in Canada's far west. Our friend wrote,

The beauty of conspiracy theories of course is that those who believe in them are in a win win situation. The less evidence there is, the better the plotters are at covering their tracks. Gold goes up, the conspirators are failing to keep the lid on gold; gold goes down, GATA must be right about how powerful are the forces of evil lined up against the yellow metal. If only my life were that black and white…

We simply could not agree more. The Conspiratorialists have it their way on both sides of the market all the while, and then complain in both directions. Gold plunged last week because the buyers had become too aggressively over-extended in their positions, and the dollar began to strengthen. Further, crude oil weakened materially too. Gold had nowhere to go but down, and although the Conspiratorialists will see this as evidence of manipulation and coercion, we see it as the very normal ebb and flow of speculative capital from one market to another.

-END-

What is the matter with people like this? They cover our subject matter as if they have the education of a 4th grader. I would love to see the simplistic Gartman review what Reg Howe produced last week. I don’t think he has the brains to understand Reg much less converse on the subject. What a bore these people are who resort to banal categorizing of GATA and the GATA ARMY with terms like Conspiratorialists. We have the evidence and proof to back up our claims. The Gartmans have nothing but name-calling and silly innuendos.

Hi Bill,
I have attached a dowload link below for yourself & Midas readers;

The link should be saved to your hard drive 1st then viewed because it is quite a lengthy download, a good opportunity to make yourself a cup of coffee.

http://www.anglofareast.com/downloads/trailer.mpg

It's a 15min. cut of the 2hr. award-winning documentary called "Millennium – Money".

Our company had taken out the first place Gold Awards at the International

Film & Video Festival Awards in Chicago 1999. The documentary is even more relevent today than it was then. With this video documentary we won, and we won based upon Morality in Economics. The documentary exposes a truth very few people in our communities understand let alone know anything about and I believe could be quite timely before Christmas! For myself it has been one of personal conviction and has given me a

respectful fear for the things of God(Just weights & Measures). In saying so though I must admit only our own consciences can convict us to respond to a righteous standard of truth.

Myself and the Anglo team thank you for your efforts throughout the past year and wish you a Merry Christmas and prosperous New year.

Yours Sincerely,
Simon Heapes

Feedback and input from Derek Van Artsdalen in San Antonio:

Hi Bill,
As some suspected, the dollar was unable to hold above the critical .8250 level today. It traded as high as .8284 but last I checked it was .822, down half a point on the day. Gold and silver, much to the surprise of just about all the gold bugs, closed strongly higher. Looks like John Mackenzie's unpopular prediction of an imminent, big-time rise in the metals may not be so far-fetched after all. I had a long talk with him on the phone this morning, and I can tell you that the guy is no nutcase.

Aside from you and John, there aren't many—even among the gold bug crowd—who are very optimistic for the near-term.

Maybe that's a good sign. The evidence: gold climbed more than 1% this afternoon and silver gained 1.5%. While so many pundits continue talking about a coming deflation, nearly all the items on the CRB index were up today, including copper, crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gas, sugar, cotton, orange juice, lumber, wheat, corn and soybeans.

Other than the price of 50-yard line seats in Texas Stadium, I'm not sure exactly what these guys are thinking is deflating...
Derek

Once again the gold shares continue their sleepy ways. The XAU rose a modest 1.48 to 99.80, while the HUI limped to a 3.82 gain to 217.38. It must clear 220 to look sound technically.

I spent my Sunday doing a MIDAS because with so much negativity out there, I felt it important to present the big picture to the Café membership and what I believe will happen gold price-wise and why.

Today’s move up was very gratifying because of the kind of buying which showed up and tends to confirm my commentary yesterday. It was mainly cash folks, others in the trade and some of the cabal on the buy side. It is not normal to see them pay up like this during a spec liquidation, yet they did. If I’m right, it’s because The Gold Cartel knows they are closer and closer to hitting the wall. They are running out of physical to keep the gold price from rising and they are competing with ferocious cash buyers. They have a window here to buy from the specs, a window which will close if gold continues to move up.

The likely surprise in the weeks/months to come is how high the price of gold and silver will run to.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

A Café member appropriately queried me last week about Mahendra’s latest calls, wondering if I only put out his hits and not his misses. My response was that I had too much on my plate last week, however, would contact my seer friend to address a valid point. Didn’t have to. Mahendra called me last night and offered to address the issue himself by allowing me to put up his commentary which he sent out before calling me.

Dear Members,

The movement of silver prices in the last week have significantly shaken up silver investors. Indeed, EVEN I never thought that silver would plummet the way it did. I had however felt the onset of some kind of negativity in metals and that is why I recommended partly booking profits in metals. But frankly, I must admit that I never saw this kind of downward trend in silver.

Today I would like to share with you an important and personal issue concerning silver. On the 14th of October I sent an ‘alert news’ to all my members in which I mentioned a downward trend in silver for three days in the month of December. I also said that it would then bounce back on the fourth day and slowly inch towards attaining historic high prices in the couple of years.

"I would like to reiterate that this is what I saw and it is not just a simple prediction or alert. Since Thursday, I have dedicated all my effort and energy to analysing the 14th October alert news. Indeed, I hardly slept on Thursday and Friday because the silver prediction was so much in my mind and I was trying to recollect my memory of 14th October. I know that this prediction will come to pass and when that happens, many of my members are going to make a fortune. Meanwhile, I would like to receive your views and opinions concerning the 14th October alert because I am still not able to analyse it 100 percent, why I said that down and up move. If this week silver bounce back strongly than it's future move will be very clear, so may be we can wait and see this week movement of silver and I am sure which will unfold the future hidden move of SILVER."

Some of you will be surprised that I have started this week’s newsletter with silver as I normally begin with gold. However, I feel that the coming 24 months will be for silver and the world investor community will be astonished at the strong performance of silver prices. If today you were to ask me why it will go up or who will take it up, I wouldn’t know the answer. However, I am sure of one thing: silver is going to attain historic highs.

You should ensure that you trade cautiously, careful not to be too greedy to buy a large quantity as you may be hurt if prices suddenly drop. I want you to remain in the silver market for at least the next 24 months.

We shall soon talk more about this.

Here are this week’s predictions from 13 December to 17 December

GOLD

Prices of gold have come down to $437, and I can’t say that I am surprised since it was not unexpected. Everybody looks at this stage with grave concern and trepidation. Uncertainty is rife all over as to the best thing to do, whether to hold, to buy or to sell. This is because many experts are giving very bleak signals at this stage. When gold was nicely moving up, talk abounded of its going towards $500 or even more. But just see what a three day downtrend has done- people have suddenly changed their minds completely! It makes me very sad that metal investors don't have faith in what they are doing. In this case, they should not be investing gold at all! One should never expect something to be upbeat and on the rise everyday. One should just flow along with the wave of nature.

I personally have great faith in nature and have always ignored the crowd and the most experts. That is why I am predicting that in the next three weeks, gold will go towards $478 to $492. I am neither saying ‘if’, nor do I have any "buts’ in regard to this. I am very clear on what I am saying and my advice is - GO AHEAD AND BUY GOLD AT $433. Even as I sit here, am ready and more than willing to tackle any challenge to the contrary.

This week’s low for gold could be $431.40 while on the high side it could reach $452. Just flow along and trade with the wave of mahendraprophecy.com because now the currency fear is completely gone from my mind. The performance of the US dollar and the EURO will be immaterial to the performance of gold. Their gain or fall will have no bearing or impact onto gold BECAUSE GOLD WILL MOVE UP ON ITS OWN POWER.

Last week, nobody would have thought that the metal stocks would perform well. Against all odds, this is exactly what happened. Silver remained weak while silver stocks did well. Many of my followers have bought metal stocks in the last 5 days on my recommendation. I still recommend that one buys metal stocks before they start going up too much.

NOTE - It will be very interesting to watch my astrological newsletter verses all technical people and expert of this market because most of them are very uncertain on gold and silver move from here, hardly anybody is recommending to buy metal and metal stocks except me at this level.

SILVER

I have talked a lot about silver and it is now time to justify it. As I discern it, the rise of silver should commence from Monday and cross $7 before the close of New York trading on the same day. This week’s low could be $6.48 and on the high side, it could go up to $7.22 to $7.42. During this week, silver stocks will demonstrate the best performance. By end of the year it should trade above $8.00. According to calculations of the planetary combinations, CDE looks good.

PALLADIUM

My date is finally falling due during this week and I see Palladium prices rising more than 9% during the week. My favourite stocks are PAL and SWC.

COPPER

Please don't short copper. Buy and keep it for the next 10 days as it may yield a profit of more than 5%.

PLATINUM

You should not block money during this week in platinum. Instead, you can put that money in copper, silver, gold or Palladium. Platinum stocks will perform extremely well but long term investor's can hold.

CURRENCIES

Avoid trading in currencies, though I know that the dollar will fall quite fast towards a new low but as I indicated last week, a time is soon coming when the dollar will gain for a short period. You can buy metals against the US Dollar. The Euro, Pound, Yen and Swiss Franc could strongly gain on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday but don't take too much risk in currencies because they are now out from grip of the nature.

I do not recommend trading in currencies but those who want can still do it on condition that they don’t keep position for a long period; they could sell a day after buying.

STOCK MARKET

There is no new prediction concerning the market. All major world indices will going to remain down for next two to four years.

OIL

I feel proud about astrology because oil is 100% in the grip of nature. It was a great call to buy at $32 when I told everybody to hold up to $55 - $60. In the last week of OCT I recommended selling when it was $53 and soon again, I shall recommend that you buy. Wait for the price to reach $38 or it will rise strongly on Tuesday. GAS (natural) looks very interesting and one can therefore buy at $6.80 and sell at a big gain on Friday.

COFFEE

This favourite is doing quite well and 100 percent in the grip of nature and I can see it going up to $124 by the end of the year. During this week, it will finally cross and trade above the $100 mark.

COTTON

Cotton is very near its turn around and one can therefore start adding it to his portfolio.

GRAINS

All grains look quite promising as from 15 December. One must start adding CORN to his portfolio. Indeed, corn is fast becoming my favourite for long term investment. Prospects for soybean and wheat also look bright.

I am still trying to understand my alert of 14 October because its looks as though my vision, astrology or prophecy were trying to say some thing and I just put it down too quickly on that day. As I try to unravel this, let me just say that A LOT IS HIDDEN IN THERE FOR SILVER. Options and future trade are very risky but try to accumulate small quantity at level.

After last week down ward trend, many of my member's have sent me expert's view on the future trend of metals. I reviewed them and they all are taking about "rise of metal is over", "get out from metals", "strong dollar is starting" and few those who recommended gold to sell around $415 now they coming ahead and saying "see this what we said and warned you". I am young boy and don't have that great experience of market but I fee that 99% metal experts and market advisor's are immature because they never try to see long term trend. They just jump or change their view time to time according to current trend (so sad because people start following them and they miss best opportunity). I will let you know when to get out 100% from metals but I don't see this happening in near future.

Three important points are here:

1. In the worst case - metals can remain weak till 18 December but from current level I don't see much down side.

2. What I have been predicting on disconnection of gold and all major currencies will going to happen in the next two weeks.

3. Silver will remain most talkative issue for the next two years in wall-street, China, Chicago Board, Japan, India to Australia. May some time gold will feel jealous with popularity of silver.

I am not concern at all on rate hike quarter, half or nil. Gold will move ahead with its own power. Some says that Greenspan try to speak Nostradamus languages. Nostradamus was knowing every thing but unfortunately Greenspan don't know any thing.

Please trade carefully, don't put all your bet at same time and in big way.

Thanks & GOD Bless

Mahendra

http://www.mahendraprophecy.com

December 14 – Gold $435.40 down $3.10 – Silver $6.69 down 9 cents

Stunning Drop In Gold Bullish Sentiment Numbers

Responsibility does not only lie with the leaders of our countries or with those who have been appointed or elected to do a particular job. It lies with each of us individually. Peace, for example, starts within each one of us. When we have inner peace, we can be at peace with those around us....Dalai Lama

GO GATA!

Pretty typical trading day for gold. Yesterday, The Gold Cartel capped bullion at $440, knocking it down a buck late going into the close. The trade, seeing the obvious lid, was not about to pay up during this Comex session. Specs, wanting to liquidate longs or go short, jumped all over the high $430’s level to sell. The trade, after aggressively buying yesterday, was content to sit back and buy dips whenever gold set sights on the $435+ level. Rarely does gold (same with silver) ever shoot right back up after a significant spec liquidation and with many of the moving average trading systems having turned negative.

The trading was very quiet with Morgan Stanley on the buy side in both gold and silver. An early, brief raid on gold in the OTC market took gold down right off the bat. when the dollar strengthened further, renewed selling waves hit the trading pits.

Rumor has it Morgan Stanley is looking for $7.50 silver.

The gold open interest rose a surprising 177 contracts to 317,079. This could be very bullish, as we know the trade was huge buyers yesterday. This confirms the notion the specs were going short, as well as liquidating long positions. As previously mentioned, this should show up in the COT numbers on Friday afternoon.

The funds were early sellers in silver with Republic Bank a heavy buyer. The silver open interest fell 209 contracts to 102,912.

The 200-day gold moving average for the FEB contract is $408.75, for silver $6.74 – so we have silver falling right under it, while it is a mile away for gold. The 50-day gold moving average for FEB is $435.30.

Here is the shocker of the day:

The silver lining in gold's fall
By Mark Hulbert, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Dec. 14, 2004

ANNANDALE, Va. (CBS.MW) -- Painful as it otherwise was for the gold bugs, last week's sharp drop in gold and gold mining shares afforded contrarians a wonderful opportunity to gauge advisory sentiment in the gold market….

And that is good news for the gold market, according to the contrarians.

Consider the latest readings from the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which represents the average exposure to the gold market among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters. The HGNSI has fallen a total of 52 percentage points in recent sessions, and now stands at 19.6 percent.

That's a huge drop in sentiment for such a short period. It is not what would have happened if gold bullion's recent high above $450 per ounce represented the top of this bull market, and sentiment adhered to the normal pattern.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/new…4%7D&dist=rss&siteid=mktw

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