Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

The euro is busting out of a well defined pennant formation to the upside into new high ground, while gold is stuck in a narrow uptrend channel, following its orchestrated collapse. Each time gold reaches the upper band of the channel, the cabal stops the price rise cold, regardless of what the euro does.

While the euro made an all-time high today, gold fell to as low as 326 in euros before recovering to 327, WAY off its recent high of 344. The heinous Gold Cartel has gone into one of its most aggressive manipulation modes ever (in a relative sense to the action of the dollar) over the past couple of weeks. Of special note is gold’s failure to keep up with the euro which became pronounced right after the World Gold Council’s GLD sold 15 tonnes of gold the day before gold collapsed $20. Some coincidence, eh? Ever since then gold has struggled despite favorable world events along with the strong euro and weaker dollar in general.

Which brings me to one of my gold pet peeves. There were many gold bulls out there jumping up and down about GLD and how it would stimulate gold demand. This was expected to be a substantial boon for the price. MIDAS argued it was immaterial compared to exposing The Gold Cartel and their rigging operation. If the World Gold Council would get off its fat duff and do the right thing, gold would have blown through $600 per ounce by now. Instead, it comes up with some flawed gold product, which just happens to appear to be instrumental in BURYING the gold price, not enhancing it.

The proof is in the pudding. The price of gold is some $8 to $10 lower than when GLD kicked in, while the euro is a good deal higher. So what good did their new buying do? Squat, that’s what it did…or didn’t do!

At some point next year this tedium of having to put up with the cabal’s daily insults will all change. Gold will not only keep up with any sort of euro advance, it will explode above $455 and outpace the euro's upside activity by a wide margin. This will be the sign the crooks are losing, or have lost control of their rig. Watching gold trade then will be a joy and bring smiles instead of infuriating frowns.

Daily recap:

*The London AM Fix was $442.40, the high of the day, made before The Gold Cartel went into concerted action.

*$443 seems to be the latest capping level by the goon squad. Each time gold is about to take that level out, Hannibal and the cannibals show up.

*Goldman "Hannibal Lecter" Sachs and Deutsche Bank were the price cappers today. It is almost ALWAYS Goldman Sachs on the sell side on price capping days. Bringing that bit of news to your attention is like reporting on a broken record. No wonder their quarterly profits were so handsome. They have the US Government and Fed as a partner.

*Republic Bank was a substantial silver buyer today, as it was yesterday on the dip. They have not been seen on the buy side in some time.

*Our Comex gold floor source has felt for some time that if the euro took out 135, gold would fly. Not if the corrupt Gold Cartel says no way.

*Once the locals saw what the cabal was up to this holiday shortened session they began selling, realizing gold had no hope of making any serious advances to the upside on this day of massive intervention.

*The following on Swiss gold sales might be important or immaterial:

THE "NEUE ZUERCHER ZEITUNG" REPORTED DEC. 22ND IN A LEAD STORY THAT SWITZERLAND HAS DECIDED TO POSTPONE ANY DECISION REGARDING THEIR DISTRIBUTION AND OR SALE OF SWISS GOVERNMENTS ENTIRE GOLD RESERVES (SCHEDULED ORIGINALLY TO BE ACTED UPON BEFORE YEAR END) UNTIL FURTHER DETAILED DISCUSSION, RESEARCH AND DEBATE TO COMMENCE AGAIN MID JANUARY 2005.
REGARDS
ELMAR

*If they are referring to further Swiss gold sales beyond the almost completed 1300 tonne sale, the postponement would be meaningful in light of the recent Bundesbank decision. The Swiss are renowned for their financial market acumen. Their short-sighted dumping of cheap gold is already a blight on this acumen. Further sales could be fatal. How will it look in the years ahead with gold at $1,000+ with the Germans owning all their gold and the Swiss having sold their stash at bargain basement prices?

The euro closed at 135.08, up 1.21 and 30 points over its old all-time high. The pound gained .91 to 192.36, while the yen rose to 103.56. The dollar fell .46 to 81.55.

The John Brimelow Report

Looking more like C Bank capping.

Thursday, December 23 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM N/A, PM $9.23, with world gold at $439.60 and $441.55. (Reuters garbled the AM Bombay price; Madras, which usually trades somewhat below Bombay, showed $7.99.) Very high; lavish for legal imports. The rupee resumed its import-facilitating rise today. A weak oil price, of course immediately improves rupee sentiment (and hence India’s gold-importing ability) because the country is such a heavy oil importer.

Japan was closed. Shanghai Gold Exchange premiums rose again and now straddle $2. As mentioned before, probably the most meaningful inference which can be drawn from this is that the Chinese authorities have no intention of revaluing their currency.

Yesterday, as Refco Research politely says

"February gold opened 40 cents higher reflecting marginal overnight weakness in the dollar. From open on the COMEX, dealer selling and the absence of movement in the currencies quickly capped the February contract’s progress. Selling in gold then intensified with some fund long liquidation appearing…February gold settled down $1.5…"

Volume yesterday was 25,003 but open interest only fell 492 lots to 319, 463. Any fund liquidation was apparently off set, possibly by short selling.

Essentially the same thing is happening today, with the significant difference that the pronounced dollar weakness is destroying the reflexive analysis that gold mirrors the Euro, or tracks the dollar. Gold actually recovered yesterday’s losses very promptly around the Indian opening (about 11 PM NY time) and had a strong AM fix of $442.40, virtually the high of the day. (Rising into the fix is usually a sign that physical demand is comparatively influential) Downward pressure has been, once again, a New York phenomenon.

A prominent Bullion dealer circulated a note this morning reporting rumors of Central Bank activity. Clearly, a determined seller of some kind is capping the market.

The noted gold bear has published a 32 page precious metals 2005 forecast predicting a gold high of $465 and a low of $365, for an average of $390. Essentially it is dollar triumphalist and hopeful of steadily heavy Central Bank selling.

Gold’s friends will find the included comment by Mitsui’s technical analyst more congenial:

"The long-term profile of gold registers a significant change with the break, some twelve months in the making, of ten year resistance centred on $420-430. This has the potential to reverse to form the upper edge of a broad bed of support extending down to the 2004 low at $374. This broad support band will act like a sponge absorbing forthcoming corrections...Once any period of corrective churning is complete the prevailing uptrend…has good potential to support a further advance… The next upside target is to $480 while the best case scenario interprets a three year flag-type continuation formation which projects a target zone to $570-$600."

I will probably publish once or twice next week when data is available. Best wishes for Christmas to those who care to accept them.

JB

MIDAS note:

How interesting. The Mitsui technical analyst sees huge potential on the upside, while the noted bullion dealer bear sees dramatic downside potential. This noted bear is typical of the bullion dealer crowd. Their fundamental analysis as a group has been neutral to bearish all the way up the past few years. AND WRONG! That’s because it is based on obnoxious lies and disinformation. It is also based on their short side bullion books, as well as to placate the more significant departments (in terms of revenue) of these banking/investment firms, who abhor a rising price of gold.

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Like it does almost every day, the US stock market went higher. The DOW gained 11 to 10,827, while the DOG rose another 4 to 2160.

US Economic news:

08:30 November durable goods orders +1.6% vs consensus +0.6%
Ex-transportation orders (0.8%) vs consensus +0.8%. October orders revised to (0.9%) from (1.1%).
* * * * *

08:30 Nov. Personal Income reported 0.3% vs. consensus +0.2%; Spending 0.2% vs. consensus 0.3%
Prior Income unrevised at 0.6%; prior Spending revised to 0.8% from 0.7%.
* * * * *

08:30 Jobless claims for w/e 12/18 reported 333K vs. consensus 335K
Prior week revised to 316K from 317K.
* * * * *

Durable Goods Orders Up Strongly

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for long-lasting U.S.-made goods rose a sharper-than-expected 1.6 percent in November, pointing to a healthy pace of activity in the nation's factory sector as the year headed to a close, the Commerce Department said on Thursday.

Last month's orders increase was a bounce back from a revised 0.9 percent decline in October that was originally reported as a larger 1.1 percent drop. The November orders pickup was the strongest in four months, since a 1.9 percent increase in July and handily outstripped Wall Street economists' forecasts for a 0.6 percent gain.

The biggest gain in November orders was for transportation goods, up 8.2 percent following a slim 0.3 percent rise a month earlier. It was the strongest rise in transportation orders since an 11 percent surge last February.

Transportation accounts for more than a quarter of overall durable goods, so any pickup in these orders has a significant impact on the overall total.

Excluding transportation, durables orders in November were down 0.8 percent after a 1.3 percent October decrease.

-END-

09:47 Dec. Final Univ. of Michigan Sentiment reported 97.1 vs. consensus 95.7
* * * * *

10:00 Nov. New Home Sales reported 1.125M vs. consensus 1.2M
Prior revised to 1.278M from 1.226M
* * * * *

10:30 EIA reports natural gas inventories (123)bcf vs. consensus (113)bcf
For reference, year-ago data was (151)bcf. Prior week's data was (61)bcf. Jan. nat'l gas futures move higher in initial reaction.
* * * * *

10:28 Dollar/euro weakens to $1.35 for first time
Trades up to the $1.3505 level before retreating back to current quote of $1.3495.
* * * * *

Some things never change, even when we think they are:

"Remember all that outrage at Enron and other corporate executives suspected of fraudulent accounting? FNM’s board fired CEO Howell Raines, who made $20m last year in total compensation and was granted a guaranteed pension of $1m/year for life. And this is against the backdrop of an investigation into FNM’s accounting practices over the past few years. Where’s the outrage now?" King Report

Goodies from Jesse:

It is hard not to conclude that the current SP 500 rally is fueled by a reflationay effort from the Federal Reserve with sustained injections of repo 'hot money.' How long can they keep it up, and will the market revert to some 'mean' of value when they stop?

This sort of monetary tinkering does not produce anything useful, but does serve to placate the public with panem et circenses, bread and circuses, the tool generally used by empires when they wish to distract the mob from something they do not wish it to observe too closely. Iraq? Fannie Mae? Iran? Housing bubble? Unemployment?

So many disasters in the making, so many parties to attend.

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/RepoSP500.gif

-END-

Here is what is presented for public consumption:

Emily Church, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 7:42 AM ET Dec. 23, 2004

..The dollar, however, was seeing gains from Wednesday erode. Cautionary comments from European political figures on damage done by the dollar's recent declines continued to focus markets on the European predicament.

French Finance Minister Herve Gaymard told reporters that the U.S. "absolutely" had to understand at a G-7 meeting of finance ministers in February that "coordinated" international management was needed, AFX News reported.

"If we stay in the current situation, it's possible to imagine a catastrophic situation at world level, for the Europeans who have an over-valued currency, for the Asians who hold assets in dollars and for the Americans because long-term interest rates will rise," he said.

-END-

Here is what is going on behind the scenes:

What Paul Volker had to say regarding the rise in the gold price in 1980:

"…..Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake.

"Through March, the price of gold rose rapidly, and that knocked the psychological props out from under the dollar."

***

There are those who know the gold market and those who are clueless. John Ing, who attended the GATA reception in Toronto this past spring, is one who gets it:

Bullish Ing Calls $700/oz Gold for Late 2005

By Tim Wood
22 Dec 2004 at 01:18 PM EST

NEW YORK (ResourceInvestor.com) -- John Ing, president and chief executive officer of Maison Placements Canada, has never been a shy gold bull, and confirmed his reputation with his latest call for the metal to strike $700 per ounce late next year.

Before that, Ing is eyeing $510/oz as the next important step. He made the price calls in a note circulated to clients….

-END-

Then there are the clueless and corrupt. As mentioned often, the bullion dealers in New York and around the world have been neutral to bearish all the way up and have completely ignored the true fundamentals of the market. Their clients have been shortchanged to a stunning extent. We will begin to see various 2005 price predictions for gold and silver from the establishment in the days ahead. Here is one of them:

INDUSTRY: CIBC Ups '04 & '05 Gold and Silver Price Estimates.. 2004/12/22 09:03:58

Ridgeland, MS, DEC 22, 2004 (EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX) -- CIBC noted that spot gold recently set a new 16-year high with its move above $450 per ounce. Firm expects continued strength looking out to 2005 as fundamentals remain positive, although currency-driven. The firm upped their 2004 and 2005 per ounce ests to $410 and $475 from $400 and $425, respectively. They also maintained their outlook for continued strength in silver and raised their 2004 and 2005 per ounce ests to $6.65 and $7.00 from $6.50 and $6.50, respectively…

-END-

It’s hard to know from this report whether CIBC is talking about high prices, or an average price. However, you get the drift. Very uninspiring, as always, with calls for a modest rise in the price of gold and for silver to remain flat and modestly retreat. My guess is if we went back over the last four years of CIBC yearly price predictions, they would average neutral to bearish over the entire bull move so far.

My friend up north can’t be a happy camper today either. John Embry’s handle on the gold market is second to none in the world. This email from a fellow Café member last night:

Hi Bill,
If you missed this, sorry I didn't send this sooner. The "grapefruit' comment is classic.

John Embry had a one hour interview on the Market Call segment with Jim O'Connell on ROB TV during lunch today. It was a dandy, talked about mining and precious metals companies in the U.S. and Canada. But the opening was the stunner, here is the opening question to the interview and a portion of John's reply.

*****************
Jim O'Connell: You thought gold would be $500.

John Embry: Yep

Jim: By the end of the year, it's not, what happen?

John: Well, I think the fundamentals probably would justify at least $500. But The guys on the other side are pretty effective and anybody that doesn't think there is manipulation in the gold price, probably hasn't got an IQ higher than a grapefruit, in my opinion. I mean, it is so blatant now. That it's..., it's laughable.

*******************

John Embyr interviews at ROB Tv on Market Call, in two segments at this archive.

http://www.robtv.com/shows/past_archive.tv

select:
Wednesday, December 22, 2004

12:30 PM ET
Market Call with Jim O'Connell
Canadian and U.S. Mining companies and precious metals
John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist, Sprott Asset Management

1:25 PM ET
Market Call with Jim O'Connell
John Embry's top picks
John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist, Sprott Asset Management

Best wishes for a very Merry Christmas and Golden New Year,
Preston

This email from a savvy European money manager expressed the mood and sentiments for many of us today:

Dear Bill,
Day after day I am reading your Midas comment with great interest. I have accommodated to the daily market rigging by the cartel pretty well. However, what is happening in the silver market over the last couple of days is absolutely sickening. Just look at the Euro today – again new highs – yet silver is capped, capped and capped at the 696 level in the March contract. Silver actually just lost 6 cps from its resistance high in a matter of seconds…..what a joke! I do hope that on the last trading day of December someone is asking for physical….and sends the silver price up through the roof during the first couple of trading days in 2005. I have been in business now for over 20 years and I haven’t witnessed anything like that so far. You need balls like an elephant! For sure, the inevitable is coming, but thinking about the close on dec. 31st…….if you were chairman of abx or any other cartel member and had the choice for $ 450 gold or $ 400….silver $ 10 or $6….which price would you like to have in your balance sheet based upon?.....i am long up to my eyeballs and continue to pull the position through over year-end….no matter what happens…..

Bill I wish you and all other readers a merry Christmas and a peaceful New Year. The battle hasn’t begun in earnest yet….

***

Just as the US stock market seems to go up every day, the gold shares sell off late. Today was no exception. With the euro screaming, the XAU could only tack on a pitiful .18 to 99.30. The HUI managed to rise early to 217.90, then fell off going into the close to 216.09, up 1.45. The HUI must take out 220 convingingly to come back to life.

HUI
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

The recent gold price action is beyond frustrating. However, the good news is The Gold Cartel has a ticking time bomb on their hands. They just don’t have enough available physical gold to keep the price from exploding next year.
What seems somewhat extraordinary to me is gold continues to go up year after year, yet so few people among the investing public are willing to do their homework to both understand and appreciate what is going on here….what the upside is and why. Participating in big moves such as these are rarely simplistic, which is the reason so few ever make the big money in them. The old adage that the biggest bulls (markets) shake off the most riders is so apropos. Take the gold shares for example. Last year was fabulous; this year was stinko with a few exceptions. As a result, many investors have lost focus and dropped by the wayside. Those who stay with the program will make fortunes.

Gold, silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.

GATA stretcher-bearers please stand by; be prepared to go into action in 2005:

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/morganstretcher.jpg]

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS

Bill
This report below backs up your comments today on the very sad situation in Iraq, and comes from an authoritative US source.

But first it is interesting to try and analyse what effect the Iraq options still open to the US may have on the PM markets.

1) A pull out of Iraq on domestic public opinion pressure (as happened in Vietnam) would leave 3 or more competing fractions in Iraq in a power vaccuum. The resulting uncertainty and security problems in Iraq would probably lead to higher oil prices. The question mark as to the viability of the USA's role in the rest of the world, and the uncertain aftermath if they decided to pull out of other bases would put pressure on the $. Security of oil supply doubts would raise the oil price. All these factors would lead to rising gold prices.

2) If the USA decides to stay in Iraq the escalating costs will increase the deficits putting pressure on the $ and cause a rising gold price.

Conclusion : There is no Iraq scenario visible at the moment which can save the $ and hence it is a win win situation for Gold.
Very tragically it seems that it is much easier to go to war than to end the war with a just and peaceful conclusion and recreate geopolitical stability in the world.
It was easier to open Pandora's box than it is to close it.

All JMHO
Best
Alan

Thursday December 23, 05:01 AM

U.S. faces worsening Iraq attacks

By Carol Giacomo, Diplomatic Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is facing increasingly deadly attacks in Iraq because, as in the Vietnam war, it failed to honestly assess facts on the ground, according to a new think tank report.

The report, prepared by Anthony Cordesman, senior fellow of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said administration spokesmen had appeared to live "in a fantasyland" when giving accounts of events in Iraq.

Cordesman, a former Pentagon official who has made several trips to Iraq, said Iraqi spies were a serious threat to U.S. operations and that there was no evidence insurgent numbers were declining despite vigorous U.S. and Iraqi counterattacks.

The report was updated after Tuesday's attack on a U.S. base in Mosul which killed 22 people. Defence officials said the explosion was apparently caused by a suicide bomber, underscoring the problem of infiltrators in U.S. operations.

After the 2003 invasion to oust Saddam Hussein, the United States "assumed that it was dealing with a limited number of insurgents that coalition forces would defeat well before the election" of a new Iraqi government, Cordesman asserted.

"It did not see the threat level that would emerge if it did not provide jobs or pensions for Iraqi career officers or co-opt them into the nation-building effort. ... It acted as if it had years to rebuild Iraq using its own plans, rather than months to shape the climate in which Iraqis could do it," he said.

Cordesman said in the first year of the U.S. occupation, Washington "failed to come to grips with the Iraqi insurgency ... in virtually every important dimension."

NO HONEST ASSESSMENT

Under the heading "Denial as a method of counter-insurgency warfare," the report accused the United States of minimizing the insurgent and criminal threat in Iraq and of exaggerating popular support for U.S. and coalition efforts.

Washington "in short ... failed to honestly assess the facts on the ground in a manner reminiscent of Vietnam," Cordesman wrote.

He said that as late as July 2004, administration spokesmen still lived "in a fantasyland in terms of their public announcements," including putting the core insurgent force at 5,000 individuals when experts in Iraq knew the correct number to be 12,000 to 16,000.

As in most insurgencies, including Vietnam, sympathizers within the Iraqi government and Iraqi forces, as well as Iraqis working for the coalition, media and non-governmental organizations, "often provided excellent human intelligence (about U.S. and coalition operations) without violently taking part in the insurgency," the report said.

Cordesman said U.S. attempts to vet these Iraqis cannot solve the problem because "it seems likely that family, clan and ethnic loyalties have made many supposedly loyal Iraqis become at least part-time sources."

Since early 2004, insurgents have suffered tactical defeats in Baghdad, Falluja and elsewhere. Still, "there is no evidence that the number of insurgents is declining as a result of coalition and Iraqi attacks to date," Cordesman said.

U.S. troops left Vietnam in 1973 after the war lost support at home. Many Americans became disenchanted with their government's failure to tell the truth about U.S. operations in Vietnam and about casualty levels.

Aha, trotz reiner Propaganda in den Nachrichtensendungen seitens FOX-News, CNN und NBC scheinen die intelligenteren Amerikaner trotzdem langsam aufzuwachen. Der Vergleich mit Vietnam wird Hoffähig und immer öfter liest man auch in Anspielung auf Stalingrad von Falludjagrad.

Vielen Dank an Schwabenpfeil für deinen unermüdlichen Einsatz hier.

Gruß
mvd

@ Schwabenpfeil

Vielen Dank für deine Mühen und Dein Durchhaltevermögen!

Gesegnete Tage bis zum Neuen Jahr

und ein festes gutes Händchen für die Entscheidungen im nächstenJahr,

Dir und allen anderen Goldbugs die dem Board Lben geben

FROHE WEIHNACHTEN!

emoba

Hallo e,oba, Hallo mvd,

herzlichen dank für Eure netten aufmunternden Worte ... Ich wünsche Euch im voraus alles Gute für 2005 !

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil