Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

McHugh analysiert ausführlich den Verlauf von Dow Jones und S+P 500 mit verschiedenen Phasen, wo kurz darauf ein Crash stattfand:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/mchugh012205.html

• Wenn man eine Analogie zu den vergangenen Investorverhalten zieht, kommt man zum Schluß, dass ein Crash vor uns liegt. Die amerikanischen Aktien haben das Top erreicht.
  

  
  

• Der Crash wird im späten Februar Fahrt aufnehmen und im März 2005 erfolgen.
  

  
  

• Eine bemerkenswerte Korrelation ist zwischen dem Kursverlauf S+P 500 mit DJIA1929 zu erkennen. Vom heutigen Niveau könnte dies zu einem Crash von 30-48 % führen !
  

  
  

• Silber ist dabei auszubrechen.

Wieder eine Analyse, die in Richtung Crash-Szenario geht. So langsam nehmen diese Analysen zu ! Dies zeigt wie dünn die Luft allmählich wird und gleichzeitig ein Anstieg der Gold-/Silberkurse ansteht !

January 21 - Gold $426.50 up $4.80 - Silver $6.79 up 27 cents

Gold And Silver Take Off

"The mountain remains unmoved at seeming defeat by the mist."
Rabindranath Tagore

Just checked into the Pan Pacific Hotel in Vancouver. Been traveling all day. When I left Dallas gold was up a piddly 60 cents and I was doing my Billy Martin routine (he was the former New York Yankees manager who kicked the bases like a maniac when the umpires made a bad call). For me it is my reaction to The Gold Cartel.

What a pleasant surprise to see my kicking did some good for a change. The Gold Cartel got a whooping, yet still made their presence felt with their $6 Rule again. At its high of the day, gold was up $6.80. Once again let me express how ludicrous it is for a market to be kept in check with such precision over the years now and to have no one outside of the GATA camp make note. How sickening! And how pathetic the mainstream gold pundits are to have to maintain their PC gold market commentary so as not to offend The Gold Cartel.

Oh well, a day to focus on the positives. Feeling better about my calling the market here after getting my butt wupped for the past month. One day does not make a market change, but what I was ranting about in December seems to be coming to pass. The stock market is finally giving up the ghost for the reasons I have expressed in this column for well over a month. The surging gold and silver physical markets have saved the day and made life miserable for The Gold Cartel who so desperately wants to keep the price from taking off.

The cabal forces are in trouble for the following reasons:

*The most important is the strength of the physical markets. It is eating into their available supply.

*Gold has begun to move up in other currencies besides the dollar. Gold in euros closed below 327. If not for The Gold Cartel today, it would have topped 328.

*The Gold Cartel obliterated the specs. Over 100,000 of them exited the gold market during the orchestrated drubbing. Many will come right back in again as the technicals turn back up. With the cash market this firm, the cabal will have their hands full and could be faced with several back to back limit-up days on the Comex. Limit, of course, being within the confines of the $6 Rule.

*The US stock market is breaking down and is giving up much of its gains of last year, in some cases plus some already. Should this continue and pick up steam, it will make their rig that much harder.

*In addition, as I have mentioned several times recently, should US financial markets get roiled (it's coming), more and more investors in the West are going to look to gold as a go-to investment in 2005, further complicating life for the bums.

*As an indication of how sentiment can shift very quickly, one only need read this comment from Joe Martin this morning about his Vancouver conference this weekend:

"At 8:18 a.m. internet registration numbers were 5479. Our traffic flow chart indicates we will top 6000. The game is on."
Joe Martin,
Cambridge House International Inc.

That is a big number. The joint will be jumping. If this is an indication of a sudden change in sentiment towards gold around the world, we have fireworks right around the corner.

*As our STALKER source keeps reporting, the silver market is on fire overseas. The price action today finally gave us some indication of that. At one point silver was up 37 cents, quite the move. Should the silver shorts be hitting the wall (it’s about time), the price of silver could go bonkers very quickly. This will create a big stir and send more and more investors into gold.

What a coincidence gold took off AFTER the Inaugural Festivities ended.

Anyway, got to get this to press. Having pounded the table gold was going back up and why, today’s move higher will bring on more smiles from MIDAS this weekend, especially up here in gold country. As we all know, gold must take out and close solidly above $430. Thought it might do it last Friday. Looks like my call will be two weeks too early. Should get there easily by next Friday. Better late than never.

Of significance is that two key commodities won’t go down. Oil rose $1.22 per barrel to $48.35, while copper closed at $1.4345, within striking distance of making multi-year and all-time highs.

The dollar fell .59 to 83.34 with the euro rising .96 to 130.60.

The John Brimelow Report
Silver- I told you so. Now gold...

Friday, January 21, 2005

India was closed today – as were Indonesia, Malaya, and Singapore. This does not completely mean that Indian arbitrage dealers were inactive, but relatively speaking the fundamentals favored the Bears.

TOCOM traded the equivalent of 16,375 Comex lots (+18%), with the active contract jumping 14 yen. World gold went out 10c above NY. Open interest dropped 183 Comex equivalent. Commentaries continue to imply that the physical market is a buyer: Reuters/Tokyo reports:

“End-users and jewellery makers were detected buying spot gold around $420, traders said. Yen-based investors were also detected buying physical gold actively below 1,400 yen over the past week…Japanese bank depositors have been diversifying their assets into gold ahead of the end of a government guarantee on bank deposits at the end of March.”

Right now this is not a massive thing, but it was extremely important in early 2002, and merits attention.

Yesterday, on the slipstream of the Euro weakness, a fairly serious effort was made to break gold down. Mitsui-London:

“The stronger USD saw gold test support in NY with players seeking out sell stops.”

ScotiaMocatta:

Gold started the session around 422.00 and soon came under pressure from overseas sources.

Funds were also in the market on the offer side, however, good scale down physical buying helped soften the blow.” It failed. UBS clearly expresses the reason:

“Physical comment: UBS notes that physical demand for gold remains very strong, particularly from India and other Asia although European demand is steady. Kilobar premiums have increased sharply and there is good demand for metal in Switzerland, indicating that the Swiss refineries are working hard. The strength of physical demand is underpinning the gold price…”

The silver market bounce today is a pleasant vindication of the policy of watching physical market premiums.

The noted bear appears to be faltering in his cheerleading for the US Administration. From such a sagacious observer, this is an important sign.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Oh boy is the US stock market looking putrid! Another early rally failed. The DOW even closed below psychologically key 10,400 support at 10,392, down 78. The DOG can’t sink fast enough. It barked its way down another 12 to 2034. What lies ahead is ominous:

Dow set for worst new-year losing streak since '82

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Dow Jones was looking set to close lower for the week Friday -- marking the first time in more than 20 years it has fallen for the first three weeks of the start of a year.

Dow Jones Indexes said the last time the Dow had fallen for the first three weeks of a year was 1982.

A weak January could set the tone for the months ahead, said Robert Drust, managing director of listed trading at regional investment bank Wedbush Morgan.

"It seems to me that it sets the tone for how people will position themselves for the coming months," he said. "I think traders have been disappointed with what's going on in January and will be more cautious going forward and less likely to buy on the dips."

Heading into the final hour of trading, the Dow on track to end the week 1.2 percent lower, its fourth consecutive week of losses.

-END-

18:01 Semi equipment book/bill ratio 0.95 in December vs consensus 0.97
* * * * *

18:05 Follow-up: Semi equipment book/bill ratio 0.95 in December
Bookings fell (7.1%) to $1.235B vs a consensus of (10.1%). Billings fell (2.6%)vs consensus (7.3%). November was revised to 0.99 from 1.00.
* * * * *

09:49 Univ. of Michigan Confidence 95.8 vs. consensus 97.5 Prior reading 97.1.
* * * * *

Talk about confusion at the Fed:

Greenspan against faster rate hikes - BusinessWeek

NEW YORK, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is comfortable with the current measured pace of U.S. interest rate hikes and does not favor a more aggressive policy, a report in the online version of BusinessWeek magazine said on Friday.

The report noted that with the Fed's Feb 1-2 policy meeting fast approaching, investors were fretting that Greenspan and his central bank colleagues might want to junk their go-slow strategy of bite-size interest rate hikes in favor of something more aggressive.

"But those concerns don't seem to have fazed the man atop the Fed," said the report, written by Fed watcher Rich Miller. "Associates say the chairman has shown no signs of panic and appears content with the strategy of small, slow rate hikes -- one-quarter of a percentage point at each meeting."

"Indeed, with another quarter-point hike expected at the Feb. 1-2 meeting, short-term rates will be inching closer to levels where some Fed officials might even consider taking a break from their rate-hiking campaign," the BusinesWeek report said.

Minutes of the last Fed policy meeting in December showed some board members were growing concerned about inflation and some fretted about excessive risk-taking in financial markets, leading analysts to wonder if the Fed as a whole might decide to speed up its rate hikes.

However, recent comments from members have been more balanced, with many playing down the reaction to the minutes while expressing confidence that inflation will stay contained.

-END-

Rhody on the lease rates:

Good morning Bill:
As you can see from the imbedded chart, gold lease rates are rising, particularly in the 1 to 6 month terms. This implies leasing to control spot prices. Your theory that this is designed to hold gold down during the inauguration of Shrub is a possibility. So is holding gold down prior to the G7 meeting next month as the US likely faces an ultimatum from its trading partners: fix the dollar or fix the deficits or the dollar will be allowed to free-float. There is a third possibility. The present price of gold at $422 is equal to $35 per ounce in 1960 dollars. Capping the price at this level means the value of gold has gone nowhere for 65 years. This is a message that I'm sure the Fed wants to broadcast. (Mind you if you adjust the DOW for inflation, it reduces to under 1000 too in 1960 terms) The point I am trying to make is that $422 gold is a price level that the Fed may be inclined to defend.

Silver is still more expensive to lease than gold, but lease rates are stable here to slightly weaker. You can still lease gold for one year for the cost of leasing silver for one month. Despite this implied tightness in the silver supply, silver is far cheaper proportionately than gold. If the present price of gold is $35 in 1960 dollars, the present price of silver is 55 cents in 1960 terms. Gold was actually $35 in 1960, but silver was going through a weak patch then, averaging 93 cents. That makes silver at least 40% under-valued right now relative to gold.
Regards, Rhody.

1. Nanik checks in from the Canary Islands:

1. XAU and the HUI gold mining indices have a bullish falling wedge on their charts. That bodes well for a strengthening market.

2. Both the XAU and HUI have an inverted head and shoulders pattern. The last time, I saw this inverted head and shoulders was when crude oil was around 36.- dlrs, and you saw where crude went: to 55 dlrs. But this inverted head and shoulders pattern is valid so long as the XAU and HUI remain above 93.- and 190 respectively. So far, this seems to be the case. In fact, the two indices are holding up pretty well.

3. You will see the same inverted head and shoulders pattern in NEM-Newmont Mining, which is the bellwether stock of the gold share market.

4. Silver is holding at its 200 day moving average. Every time, it holds this level, it rallies about 60 to 80 cents.

5. If this pattern continues for another two weeks, we could have a positive market in February.

Right now, there is a boxing contest going on between up pretty well. This reminds me of Sylvester Stallone in Rocky Three, when he faced a formidable opponent, took several blows and won in the last round.

I feel gold will win this boxing contest in February.

Best regards,
Nanik

The gold/silver shares woke up. About time. The XAU gained 1.94 to 95.06 and the HUI rose 5.45 to 209.90, right below 210 resistance.

As you have heard from me for a couple of weeks, the gold shares are set up to fly as there are so few investors still on board, except us ole-timers. Many of the disgruntled have run for the hills. At the same time most of the gold pundits are neutral to bearish and the Wall Street crowd still can’t spell gold and silver yet. All of those not in at the present, will want in soon. As this occurs, and if it happens simultaneously, the gold and silver shares could go ballistic.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

positive Goldanalyse von David Chapman:

http://www.321gold.com/editori…n_d/chapman_d_012405.html

Le Metropole Members,

DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 24, 2005--The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee will host an international conference Aug. 8 and 9 in Dawson City in Canada's Yukon, the center of the Klondike Gold Rush at the turn of the 19th century, to discuss the suppression of the prices of gold and silver and the need for new representation of precious metals investors and the mining industry.

The announcement was made by GATA Chairman Bill Murphy at the Vancouver Resources Investment Conference in Vancouver, British Columbia.

"Since Dawson City represents the golden excitement of the past, this historic location is just the place for our conference as we enter a new time of excitement for gold," Murphy said. "We will call our gathering Gold Rush 21."

Murphy listed these goals for the conference:

- Expand GATA's role as an advocate for the precious metals industry.

- Offer the mining industry and precious metals investors an alternative to the World Gold Council, which represents no more than 20 gold companies and has done little for those it purports to represent. GATA will seek to include more of the industry and will not align itself with the bullion banks and jewelry interests, which want precious metals prices suppressed. More than 40 mining and precious metals-related companies have supported GATA in recent years, and GATA believes that it can raise that total to 200.

- Spread GATA's message that the gold and silver markets are not free and not fair, and develop ways to change that. Renowned gold experts from five continents will come to the conference and explain and discuss the price manipulation committed by the gold and silver cartels. The conference will show who has done it, why they did it, and what can be done about it.

- Give conference participants a memorable trip to Klondike Gold Rush country so they can see what a gold rush was and what one might be again. GATA expects that conference participants will forge memorable relationships.

- Receive suggestions from conference participants about how GATA can best build long-term support from the precious metals industry.

The speakers at Gold Rush 21 will include:

- Ferdinand Lips of Zurich, Switzerland. He has been managing director of Rothschild Bank AG in Zurich, CEO of his own private bank (Bank Lips), and a director of Randgold Resources, Durban Roodeport Deep, and Afrikander Lease. Now he is chairman and manager of the Top-Gold Fund, based in Liechtenstein. He has written four books on the gold market, his latest being "Gold Wars."

- Peter George of Cape Town, South Africa. A graduate of Oxford University in England and the University of Cape Town, where he received his MBA, George was a member of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange from 1969-1981 and was senior partner of the Johannesburg stockbrokerage Saunders & Taylor. He became known as South Africa's "Mister Gold," during that period. Peter helped organize the GATA African Gold Summit in Durban, South Africa, in May 2001. Five sub-Saharan African nations attended that conference, along with representatives of major South African gold producers and the South African mine workers union. The summit was heavily reported by the South African Broadcasting Co.

- John Embry of Toronto. Just as George is known as "Mister Gold" in South Africa, Embry is becoming known as "Mister Gold" in Canada. After an illustrious career at the Royal Bank of Canada, where he oversaw $5 billion in mutual fund assets and recorded an astounding return of 153 percent in 2002, in 2003 Embry became chief investment strategist at Sprott Asset Management. He was co-author of Sprott's important research study, "Not Free, Not Fair: The Long-Term Manipulation of the Gold Price," which validated GATA's work. There is no more admired figure in the mining industry.

- Hugo Salinas Price, who may be regarded as Mexico's "Mister Silver." Salinas Price is leading the campaign to remonetize silver in his country, the world's foremost producer of silver. Last November governors of all 31 Mexican states sent a letter to the Ways and Means Committee of the Mexican House of Representatives to urge approval of legislation to remonetize silver. Nearly 200 Mexican journalists signed a declaration in support of the legislation. A poll by the Mexican television network TV Azteca found that 96 percent of viewers approved the remonetization of silver. It seems that the only major opponent of the silver legislation in Mexico is Mexico's central bank.

- Reginald H. Howe of Massachusetts. A successful trial lawyer in Boston and proprietor of the GoldenSextant.com Internet site, Howe took on the entire Gold Cartel in U.S. District Court in Boston in 2001 by suing the Bank for International Settlements, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Treasury Department, J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Group, and Deutsche Bank AG. Howe stood against more than a dozen of the highest-powered lawyers in the world. His lawsuit has been renewed by Blanchard Coin & Bullion's suit against J.P. Morgan Chase and Barrick Gold in U.S. District Court in New Orleans.

- James Turk of New Hampshire. Turk, a former banker and manager of the commodity department of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, is editor of the Freemarket Gold & Money Report and founder of GoldMoney.com. He is also the co-author of "The Coming Collapse of the Dollar," just published by Doubleday.

These men fight every day on behalf of gold and silver investors and mining companies.

Facilities in Dawson City are very limited, so GATA will have to restrict invitations to mining company executives and investment fund managers, the people who are in the best position to help us push the industry forward. Mining company executives and fund managers who would like to attend Gold Rush 21 should write to GATA by e-mail at Registrar@GoldRush21.com and confirmations will be sent soon after that. More information about the conference can be found at its Internet site: http://www.goldrush21.com.

GATA extends its profound gratitude to Samex Mining and Klondike Star for their exceptional efforts behind the scenes to make this international conference a huge success.

CONTACT: Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc., Manchester
Chris Powell, 860-646-7383/860-305-4013

GATA beginnt mehr Schlagkraft zu entwickeln und organisiert sich.

Analyse von Clive Roffey:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/roffey012405.html

Er ist bullisch für Gold und insb. für Durban Deep.

Roffey ist immer bullish

Durban Deep wochenchart sagt weiter hinunter RSI nog nicht am 25%

JP Morgan sieht den Silberkurs 2005 in einer Range zwischen 6,5 $ und 7,8 $:

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/whats_new/405932.htm

JP Morgan wird sich über die Kursentwicklung noch wundern, wenn der Silberkurs ausbricht !

January 24 - Gold $426.60 up 10 cents - Silver $6.83 up 4 cents

GATA And The North Country

The man who views the world at 50 the same as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life...Muhammed Ali

A clarification is not to make oneself clear. It is to put oneself in the clear...Sir Humphrey Appleby

GO GATA!!!

This will be my shortest MIDAS ever. Just no time. Been running around attending to matters related to our Klondike gold conference in Dawson City in early August. Off to a reception for the Premier of the Yukon in 15 minutes.

The gold conference has been a huge success. Over 1000 people showed up at 11 this morning to listen to John Embry speak. More later on this conference and about our own in the North Country. Who can forget the movie "The North Country" with Jimmy Stewart. Dawson City was featured.

Was out of the loop today, yet could help but note how the stock market fell apart again. The DOG (2009, down 9) barked all day, while the DOW sank late to 10,368, down 24. Technically, both of these markets are in deep trouble.

Gold ought to be flying and should be by the end of the week. Silver too.

The dollar fell .07 to 83.27.

The John Brimelow Report

Good & Bad news. Gartman wavering.

Monday, January 24 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.59, PM $8.30, with world gold at $427.05 and $427.60 (corrected from earlier today). Slightly below, and ample, for legal imports. This is basis Bombay: the other Indian reporting points were narrowly viable for legal imports this morning. India returned from a three day weekend to find world gold abruptly $7 higher; but by the afternoon had clearly returned to import mode. UBS directly refers to

“decent physical demand from India and other Asian countries”

being seen in London this morning.

On the face of matters, TOCOM stepped aside: on volume equal to 19,440 Comex (+18.7%) the active contract rose 8 yen – world gold went out 80c above the NY close. But open interest managed to rise the equivalent of 630 Comex lots (to the equivalent of 109,834 Comex) and according to Mitsubishi the public increased its long by 1.4 tonnes. This is slightly surprising considering the steady rise in yen gold over the past week: normally one would expect to see liquidation. Perhaps the rumored accumulation of physical by the public ahead of the elimination of deposit insurance is the cause. NY on Friday traded 75,769 contracts (c. 53,000 net of switches). Open interest ominously rose 821 lots to 273,533.

This open interest rise is ominous because the CFTC data turned out to be the most dramatically gold-friendly in many months. Contrary to the expectations of UBS (which has a good eye in this area), the spec net long fell some 600,000 ozs to 10.21 Mm, rather than rising by 1Mm or so. This puts it at a level not seen since June last year, when gold was completing its last excursion into the $380s.

An authority not well liked by most of gold’s friends refers to this measure being down to a “must buy” point.

Perhaps most important of all, the reason for the decline in the net spec long was some aggressive large spec short selling. This short rose 5,549 lots (17.25 tonnes) in the week to January 19, much of it presumably in the drop from $425 to $422 early on. What is left of this is now of course under water. HSBC notes the arresting fact that the aggregate short is almost an all-time record. The previous occasions, Q2 ’99 (BoE sales panic) and late ’97 (break down from ’93-6 range) were phases of the spec community actually being net short.

Several observers attribute Friday’s powerful rally to short covering, which seem subjectively reasonable. Unfortunately, the lack of open interest decline suggests that the shorts – the most aggressive in several months – are being let out by a seller. So does today’s sideways crawl, in moderate volume (39,000 net of switches).

Speculator misjudgment of the physical market has been the hallmark of 2005 so far. But interestingly, even the Gartman letter is wavering in its negativism:

“We've not traded gold since we exited our long position so fortuitously back in December…We shall admit, however, that our interest again is being piqued...”

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Financial Times

Central banks shift reserves away from US
By Chris Giles
Published: January 24 2005 00:03 | Last updated: January 24 2005 00:03
Central banks are shifting reserves away from the US and towards the eurozone in a move that looks set to deepen the Bush administration's difficulties in financing its ballooning current account deficit.

In actions likely to undermine the dollar's value on currency markets, 70 per cent of central bank reserve managers said they had increased their exposure to the euro over the past two years. The majority thought eurozone money and debt markets were as attractive a destination for investment as the US.

The findings emerge from a survey of central bank reserve managers published today and conducted between September and December of last year. About 65 central banks, controlling assets worth $1,700bn, took part and the results showed a marked change in attitude over the past two years.

Any rebalancing of central bank reserve portfolios has serious implications for the global financial system as the US has become increasingly dependent on official flows of funds to finance its current account deficit, estimated at $650bn in 2004.

At the end of 2003,central banks held 70 per cent of their official reserves in dollar-denominated assets and central bank purchases of US securities had financed more than 80 per cent of the US current account deficit in 2003.

Any reluctance to increase exposure to dollar assets further could cause the greenback to plunge on currency markets.

"The US cannot take support for the dollar for granted," said Nick Carver, one of the authors of the study conducted by Central Banking Publications, a company that specialises in reporting on

"Central banks' enthusiasm for the dollar seem to be cooling off."

In a further worrying sign for the greenback, 47 per cent of reserve managers surveyed said they expected the growth of official reserves to slow to less than 20 per cent over the next four years. Between the end of 2000 and mid-2004, official reserves had increased by 66 per cent.

Slower reserve accumulation growth implies the supply of official finance is likely to become more limited but few expect the demand from the US for finance to slow. The consensus among economists is that the US current account deficit will increase to $694bn in 2005.

More than 90p er cent of central bank reserve managers said that the income from reserve management was "important" or "very important".

In the two years since a similar survey was conducted, reserve managers had begun to seek higher returns for the money under management.

-END-

14:31 Treasury Secretary Snow says he is not losing confidence in 3% growth expectations for economy -- CNBC
Snow says that he believes the market will have "good" job creation, noting the domestic economy's basic fundamentals are "excellent." Faster overseas growth by U.S. trading partners is needed to reduce the current account deficit. As usual, Snow skirted the dollar issue when asked by CNBC's Ron Insana on an appropriate value for the currency.
* * * * *

Snow says US 'deeply committed' to cutting deficit

WASHINGTON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Monday the Bush administration was committed to cutting huge U.S. budget and trade deficits, and said there should be no delay in overhauling Social Security.

However Snow, appearing on CNBC television, declined to say whether Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is pressing the Bush administration for swifter action to ratchet down deficits.

"I won't get into our discussions with Chairman Greenspan, that wouldn't be appropriate," Snow said. "But I will say that this administration is deeply committed to fiscal responsibility, to controlling spending and to bringing the deficit down."

He said it was necessary to introduce changes to the Social Security reform system without delay, adding that failing to do so would mean "either huge tax increases or major benefit changes".

-END-