Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

CARTEL CAPITULATION

The US stock market took off with the DOW gaining 123 to 10,716, while the DOG leaped 29 to 2087. Bad news is good news I guess.

US economic news:

09:47 Jan. final Univ. of Michigan Confidence reported 95.5 vs. consensus 96
Prior reading was 95.8. S&P futures currently at 1192.5.
* * * * *

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers added just 146,000 new jobs in January and hiring in the previous three months was revised lower, the government said on Friday in an unexpectedly weak report on the job market, but a drop in job-seekers pushed the unemployment rate to its lowest level in three years.

The gain in nonfarm payrolls in January came in below market expectations for 190,000 new jobs but was enough to return the nation's employment to where it was before the 2001 recession began. It also erased the jobs lost during President Bush's first term.

January's increase in hiring came after a downwardly revised 133,000 gain in December. The Labor Department also cut its estimate of jobs created in October and November, trimming a total of 59,000 jobs over the fourth quarter of 2004.

Still, the unemployment rate fell to 5.2 percent, the lowest level since a 5.0 percent reading in September 2001. The drop came amid a fall in the number of people in the labor force, which includes both those with jobs and those looking for work.

As expected, the Labor Department also said it had revised up its measure of jobs created in the year to March 2004. In its annual benchmark revision, the government statisticians said 203,000 more jobs were created in the March 2003-March 2004 period. The revision was expected and does not change the general outlook for employment.

-END-

Goodies from:

The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Friday Feb. 4, 2005 – Issue 3091 "Independent View of the News"

Q4 productivity rose 0.8%, a tad more than half of the expected 1.5%. Unit labor costs increases 2.3%, 2% exp. Y/y productivity growth fell to 2.5%, a sharp drop from the 5.7% peak of Q4 2003.

The sharp decline in productivity suggests that companies no longer can squeeze the workforce to produce profits and/or economic growth is slowing and/or inflation is increasing. Of course as we have been maintaining for the past several years, productivity is grossly overstated because inflation is grossly understated, which overstated GDP.

Higher CPI = lower real GDP = lower productivity = lower corporate profits

This implies that corporations, which have been jettisoning jobs, outsourcing etc, have reached the limits of that exercise. So in order to reload the supply of jobs available that can be cut, outsourced, ‘part-timed’ or ‘independent contracted’ corporations are engaging in merger activity. Soon, these mergers will yield another heaping dose of job cuts, outsourcing, etc.

Somewhat buried in Thursday’s FT (page 4): "BoJ’s bills flop fuels liquidity concerns." For the first time in about 2.5 years, the BoJ failed to attract enough offers to fulfill its Y1 trillion bill-buying operation, even though it was an "all offices" transaction that included regional branches. If the BoJ has to lower its liquidity target, it will be a major turning point in monetary policy. The BoJ is blaming technical issues for the shortfall…The article notes that bank loans continue to fall because Japanese companies are reluctant to borrow or hire workers; and wages are still declining.

If the BoJ becomes encumbered in its liquidity operations in Japan, what would be the consequences of its dollar rigging policies in the US? We can’t fathom anything benign. After all the analysis and financial jabberwocky, the bottom line is the US has been living off the kindness of the stranger AKA the BoJ.

The main factor that kept Thursday’s market from a bigger decline is the perception that today’s Employment Report will show wonderful job growth, which suggests a jiggy economy. Of course The Street has been spewing this hokum for months.

Several research pieces note the gap between core and headline inflation, or the crude and final sales levels, must narrow. The feeling, which is reflected in the Fed’s newfound concern about inflation, is that core inflation will be pushed higher on that front and final sales inflation will be pushed higher as companies pass on cost increases to consumers. That sounds reasonable, but who has been eating the increased costs from the crude and intermediate production levels? After all, corporate profits and cash flow last year were wonderful.

Some economists still assert that ‘slack in the labor force’ will mitigate inflation. How’s that working out in Latam? In the ‘80s and ‘90s US jobs boomed while inflation tanked. In the late ‘70s, inflation and unemployment soared. We thought the Phillips Curve inflation-employment tradeoff was thoroughly debunked during Carter’s reign’ and then again under Reagan. If these economists didn’t experience those periods, what did they study in economics? Apparently IS-LM graphs and Phillips Curve sophistry.

The IMF has cut its forecast for Euro Region GDP growth in 2005 to 1.9%; that’s down from the 2.2% forecast last September…The IMF slashed its G-7 growth forecast to 2.7% (from 2.9%) for 2005…..

-END-

Bill King’s work is outstanding – written well, unique and very informative.

Wonder what the real story is behind the scenes on this one. Good cop, bad cop pitch?

G7-Taylor says U.S. opposes UK debt relief plan

LONDON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor on Friday dealt a setback to debt relief, saying the United States could not accept the British proposals or a new financing facility.

"Not only does the IFF not work for the United States, we don't need the IFF, " Taylor said, referring to British finance minister Gordon Brown's idea for a new International Finance Facility and writing off debt to poor countries.

Taylor, speaking to a small group of reporters who travelled with him to the Group of Seven finance ministers' meeting, said the U.S. has its own "bold" proposal for debt relief for poor countries that would also include more aid through grants instead of loans in the future.

Taylor also said that the U.S. is "not convinced of the need" to sell International Monetary Fund gold to finance debt relief.

-END-

The COT report showed the gold commercials only reducing their net short position by 2,000 contracts. Houston’s Dan Norcini:

Hi Bill:
COT is a bit of a shocker to me personally.

I have no idea why the trading funds would be covering shorts. I had fully expected them to be adding shorts and abandoning longs. They ditched the longs but the shorts as well? the market headed straight down since Thursday , Jan 27 of last week and broke back under the 10 DMA and the 20 DMA. From a technical standpoint, that should have encouraged the short spec category. Instead they covered and ran to the hills right alongside of the spec longs. Very strange... the specs, both longs and shorts are fleeing the gold market as if it has the plague.... If the cartel was attempting to remove the excitement from the gold market and not draw any attention to it, they have succeeded brilliantly.

Problem with this COT data is that by the time we get it, three days of price action have passed and a whole lot of stuff can happen. We did break out of that sideways trading range we were in between $420 and $430 to the downside yesterday and open interest picked up a bit, so maybe that was enough to entice some more of the specs to the short side. We simply have no way of knowing until next week.

About the only good thing I can say is that at least the trading funds have not moved to a Net Short position. That is not something any of us want to see at this point.

It is quite remarkable reading Greenspan's babble these days. Just a few months ago he is making noises about the unsustainablility of the U.S. current account deficit and the real risk of increased difficulty in attracting sufficient foreign capital to fund it. That was enough to send the dollar crashing down the 80 level. Here he is a couple of months later pontificating about the relative insignificance of the CA deficit. as a result, it looks like the dollar is going to try to head up to test the 86 level barring any surprises out of the G7.

In effect we have the following:

Greenspan late last year: "Be AFRAID. BE VERY AFRAID"

Greenspan today: "DON'T WORRY; BE HAPPY".

Geesh, and to think this guy gets paid to do this!
Later,
Dan

Rhody with a leasing update:

Good morning Bill:
Backwardation eased again in gold lease rates this morning. Now we have a flattened rate curve. To put this in perspective, the difference between the one month lease rate and the one year rate is .075%. The similar figure for silver is .76%. That means silver's rate curve is ten times steeper than that of gold, and that means gold is being leased in the near term for capping purposes at many times the volume of silver. If you compare gold and platinum's rate curve, platinum has a .6% difference between the one month and the one year rate and it's rate curve is similarly flattened as gold, but at a far higher level of over 3%. Platinum has been like this for years. It is only gold and silver that show huge changes in the steepness of the rate curve.

I think this is because of leasing for capping rather than leasing for commercial purposes. It is the difference between leasing for politics and leasing for business purposes.
Regards, Rhody.

We are all peeved as hell Mihaly:

hi bill,
just a message...because with today’s action i am pissed as hell....just like the rest I suppose. With all the fundamental information, u would expect that gold will perform well...or at least neutral. The last couple of months the market reaction of gold was in complete disconnect with the fundamentals. As you said many times, market action makes market news. You might ask, why are you so pissed...well, because of this:

I have been reading for many years now central banking documents....all sorts. I even took the time too figure out how the hell these central banks account for there reserves/swaps/repos/reverse repos/deposits/loans. As you can imagine, central banking accounting is not easy and it took some time. A few months ago, I figured out how they report these swaps/repos and loans according to IMF regulations. The data can be found on the IMF site:

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/colist.htm

and is called Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity

So you would think that the central banks fill out this form....well:

They dont have to: Countries participating in this endeavor do so on a voluntary basis.

Snd even worse, in the book "How countries manage reserve assets''(central banking publications), on page 259 it is stated that there are several shortcomings with the SDDS and the data template. The 3 auteurs (from the Safeguards Assessments Division, IMF), see the biggest shortcoming as (quote):

"Finally, and most important, the data contained in the SDDS are NOT audited by an independent third party."

So no wonder that the United States has a lot of zeros in the data template....Another point, I asked the Central Bank of Belgium to comment on their data in the IMF sheet. As I said in the past, at an annual shareholders meeting, it was said by the central bank that there is no more gold in the Belgium vaults (not on print!). This can also be seen in the sheet. I emailed the Bank 14th of december 2004, and I am still waiting for an answer.

According to the sheet, the goldswap position would be 1,134.87 and goldloans would be 2,142.36 with a total gold value of 3,529.42...which would mean almost everything is gone(everything in Millions of US Dollars).

No answer...voluntary data....data not audited by independent party......yeah.....isn't central bank accounting great? There is not much to find, if they dont have to tell. And that's why i am pissed...

Although central banks are becoming more and more transparent....it seems like they can still lie about the interest rate.....and gold.
greetz (from the Netherlands)
mihaly

Mihaly sent me the above email right BEFORE I served up the following in last night’s MIDAS:

This USAGold posting will surprise no one in the GATA camp:

Copperfield (2/3/05; 05:28:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 128814) Wellink

Heard this from a reliable source: Nout Wellink, president Dutch CB, stated off the record: Central banks must lie about interest rates and gold. He also stated that this monetary system one day will implode..

***

As each month goes by, the GATA ARMY comes up with more evidence of what the real gold story is, AKA the gold truth.

Speaking of the gold truth with the MIDAS commentary ranting on Greenspan...here is a treat after some fine sleuthing work by the GATA ARMY:

Hi Bill:
In the 2/2/05 Midas, a GATA soldier referenced a 1981 WSJ article. Enclosed is a copy of the 9/1/81 WSJ article, " Can the U.S. Return to a Gold Standard?" by Alan Greenspan. Alan "goldbug" Greenspan indicates that the major roadblock to restoring the gold standard is the problem of re-entry. Alan proposes that convertibility be instituted gradually by issuing gold notes. Alan needs to exorcise his fiat currency demons, work with Antal Fekete and GATA, and get the parallel gold-coin standard rolling.
Regards,
Paul

Greenspan Article 09-01-1981.pdf
(Easy to read once enlarged)

Nice work Paul.

Chuck checks in:

At the end of such a week, one would think that it would be impossible to write an upbeat assessment of our market. But I believe I can and with conviction. Each day this week seem to bring polarized moves in stocks and gold. The stock market that is reeking with optimism and complacency moved higher and higher culminating on Friday which to me is a historically turn day. The VIX now has sunk to a little over 11. Each day the market either gapped up or was up after 20 minutes and then never looked back. A 10 point set back has been a rarity.

Contrast that with a gold market that gapped down almost every day irregardless of the condition of the dollar. That meant to me that there was a concerted selling by the central banks in front of a political event, the G7. These are the kind of conditions that precede a turn. It is as though if you ask why the players are buying stocks, they would say, "I don't know but everyone else is." And why everyone is selling gold stocks, they would respond just the opposite. Please read Adam Hamilton's excellent essay today on the true condition of the HUI for a healthy perspective of the gold market.

The bottom line is that the personality of the stock market, except for that period when stocks declined sharply off of their 2000 highs, has not changed. A blind faith and optimism relentlessly continues. The only difference is that this time it has been joined by an unreal real estate bubble that is enchanting our nation even more than the high tech mania ever did. The wolf is at the door. Chuck

The gold shares held their own with the XAU up .07 to 91.09 and the HUI only down 1.03 to 197.73.

My island reversal hope trade went out the window, which is how they got their name. Veteran traders know when you are counting on a hope trade, you are in trouble. Maybe Monday?

Well, the real estate on our planet got cheaper this week, even though the fundamentals went our way on almost all counts. With the Orwellians doing their thing out there, analysis doesn’t count for much, especially mine.

Still, gold and silver should take off in the months to come and the stock market ought to be clobbered. Patience has taken on a new meaning.

At least I can root for my old team, the Patriots, this weekend. Go Pats!

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Hi Bill,
No amount of propping of the bond market, nor frantic bombing of the gold paper futures, while the dollar repeatedly struggles to break resistance is going to convince the G7 countries or the world that the U.S. is serious about solving its financial problems. The powers controlling the U.S. financial system have chosen market rigging, rather than legitimate reform, to attack the symptoms of the grave fundamental and structural problems they've created by design.

Despite their cleverness, these people are fools and appear ready and willing to sacrifice this country to maintain their monopoly power through perception management. All this is borne of their ill-gotten privilege to control us by simply creating legal tender currency from nothing.

As you know and have stated for years, the consequences of their evil manipulations are going to be unprecedented and truly ugly. As I see it, it remains our responsibility to see that the tail is pinned upon the donkey it belongs to, thereby ensuring that responsibility for what is to come is placed squarely upon the shoulders of the real perpetraitors, the monopoly banking cartel.

best regards and keep up the good work,
Tom K

Shaka Jr.,
Leading up to the crash of 29, history recounts the near sanity pulverizing experience of those who "stood against the tide" of bullish behavior engulfing the masses and the statistical tripe disingenuously yet systematically spewed from the financial/political leadership of the day.

This morning I wander the halls aimlessly, fluttering my finger between my flabby lips humming some dusty Dylan lick, eyes glazed, wondering if pink would be a great color to spruce up the place.

Then slowly the fog thins and the sunlight of truth, warm and bright, seeps through the crust of the current malaise to remind me that perseverance paves the path from the prison to the palace. (read Genesis chapter 41, Joseph the Dreamer becomes #2 honcho in Egypt).
Unwilling to quit,
Buena Fe

geht das wieder los...

# Hallo Schabenpfeil,

ist ja alles schön und gut mit Deinem englischen Texten, mache doch ein eigenes Forum auf und müll doch nicht alles zu damit.
gruß hpoth

hpot,

Schwabenpfeil führt dankenswerterweise den von Thaiguru zu diesem Zweck begonnenen Thread fort. Wenn du kein englisch verstehst, kannst du dich auf den restlichen threads tummeln. Ich jedenfalls bin täglicher Leser.

Gruß, UL

# verstehe ich schon aber nicht so fliesend wie Du, tut mir leid man kann halt nicht alles.

gruß hpoth

Zitat

Original von hpopth
tut mir leid man kann halt nicht alles.

Hallo hpoth,

schon ok, wenn Du nicht soo gut in Englisch ist. Weshalb Du wegen Deiner Schwächen aber die englischen Texte aus dem Le Metropole wiederholt als Müll bezeichnest, ist mir ein Rätsel

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

@hpoth

Dieser Thread ist unschätzbar wertvoll, weil man fast die gesamten Metropol Café Texte hier einsehen kann, ohne dort Mitglied zu sein. Schwabenpfeil tut hier etwas sehr wichtiges und soziales! Ich bin ebenfalls täglicher Leser, obwohl natürlich bei der Fülle an Material auch mal weniger qualitative hochwertige Texte oder Wiederholungen drin sind.

Es gibt genügend andere Threads, in denen man diskutieren kann. DIES hier ist in erster Linie ein INFO-Thread. Du wirst meines Wissens keine andere Stelle im Internet finden, wo das gesammelte GATA-Wissen gratis abrufbar ist. Und dieses Wissen wird der Allgemeinheit zu 95% von der Mainstream-Presse vorenthalten!

Also: wieder mal merci an Schwabenpfeil!

@ Schwabenpfeil, @Hr. Hofmann @all
Zugegebenermaßen war allerdings anfangs auch ich etwas irritiert, dass ein "Thread" (der in Foren ja üblicherweise zum Diskutieren aufgemacht wird), hier eher ein Infoboard ist. Daher Frage / Anregung: Könnte man diese Infos nicht als Link irgendwo in der goldseiten.de Hauptseite unterbringen? DISKUTIEREN könnte man darüber ja noch immer HIER (dann auch auf deutsch). Oder ist das aus Copyright-Gründen nicht möglich?

Klar, Link auf der Hauptseite und am besten Bill Murphy um ein Grußwort bitten

Ansonsten: Grünzeug gehört in den Kochtopf!

Da Ihr Euch jetzt so gut versteht, braucht es keinenText mehr.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.primitiveways.com/foxtan/Image33.jpg]

Ulfur

Ich hatte ja schon selbst gesagt, dass es wohl Copyright-Probleme geben dürfte. Insofern dürfte das Vorwort von Bill Murphy wohl kaum zu bekommen sein.

Es irritiert mich jedoch beim Lesen Deiner Postings (selbst wenn sie öfters auch informativ sind), wie ideologisch und radikal Du manche Vorschläge und Meinungen abbügelst (denk an den Gold-ETF oder aktuell an Deinen Kreuzzug gegen Harmony im GFI-Thread). Selbst wenn sie sich -wie hier- lediglich um freie Verbreitung sonst nicht verfügbarer Informationen bemühen.

Ich verstehe nicht, wie jemand, der hier seit einem Jahr recht aktiv posted und es zum "König" gebracht hat, einen solchen Hass auf die GATA entwickeln kann, dass er die Verbreitung der LeMetropole Infos hier unterdrücken will. Es KANN nicht sein, dass Dich als Experten nicht viele der Infos inhaltlich überzeugen; weil die dort veröffentlichten Fakten schlichtweg häufig nicht widerlegbar sind. [Dass Du selbst zur vielzitierten Gold-"Kabale" gehörst, will ich mal nicht unterstellen.]

Also - ein wenig mehr Toleranz für andere Meinungen und sachliche Vorschläge wäre hier schon angebracht.