Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

# All

Entschuldigt, dass ich wieder gemeckert habe!

gruß hpoth

Zitat

Original von Pauli

Ich verstehe nicht, wie jemand, der hier seit einem Jahr recht aktiv posted und es zum "König" gebracht hat, einen solchen Hass auf die GATA entwickeln kann, dass er die Verbreitung der LeMetropole Infos hier unterdrücken will. Es KANN nicht sein, dass Dich als Experten nicht viele der Infos inhaltlich überzeugen; weil die dort veröffentlichten Fakten schlichtweg häufig nicht widerlegbar sind. [Dass Du selbst zur vielzitierten Gold-"Kabale" gehörst, will ich mal nicht unterstellen.]

Also - ein wenig mehr Toleranz für andere Meinungen und sachliche Vorschläge wäre hier schon angebracht.

Hallo Pauli,

da hast Du Ulfur wohl gründlich mißverstanden. Er plädiert schon länger dafür, die GATA Texte in diesem Thread zu veröffentlichen. Er hat Deinen "Vorschlag" vielleicht etwas zu hart kritisiert. Moderatoren verlieren sich ja bei Diskussionen nie hier in den Thread ?(, bin aber auch fast 100 % sicher, dass Deine Idee nicht realisierbar ist.

Ich kann nur immer wiederholen, dass ich der letzte bin, der einer besseren Lösung im Wege stehen will. Aber offensichtlich kennt keiner eine realsierbare ...

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Zitat

Original von hpopth

Entschuldigt, dass ich wieder gemeckert habe!

Gerne. Aber Deine Motive bleiben mir ein Rätsel ...

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Pauli,

scheint, mein letztes Posting war etwas mißverständlich. Ich hatte mich bereits für Gata-Berichte im Thread ausgesprochen.

ETF-Diskussion: Ich habe lediglich die schlampige Vorgehensweise von Turk bemängelt und dessen mangelnde Fehlereinsicht. Leider steht hier Murphy voll hinter Turk, was für mich zugegebenermaßen einen negativen Aspekt auf Murphy wirft. Aber es gibt keinen Haß, auch keine Ablehnung der GATA.

HAR-GFI: Ich halte Gold Fields für eine hervorragende Goldgesellschaft und würde es sehr bedauern, wenn sie vom Kurszettel verschwände.
Auf der Suche nach dem neuesten Stand dieser Auseinandersetzung stelle ich Berichte ins Forum, dir mir interessant erscheinen, und mache Anmerkungen aus meinem Blickwinkel. Einen Kreuzzug führe ich nicht.

@Hpoth,
Hast Du im Silberforum dafür gesorgt, daß die LMC-Berichte dort auf Deutsch erscheinen?

Ulfur  Schwabenpfeil

Oops - dann war das wohl in der Tat ein Missverständnis meinerseits!

So sorry, Ulfur. Auch bei den anderen Themen: Du bist zwar manchmal sehr engagiert - aber den Kreuzzug nehme ich gerne zurück. Schon klar, dass man auch bei sachlichen Darstellungen oftmals Meinung reinbringt (alleine schon durch die Auswahl). Das kommt aber selbst bei den besten Zeitungen vor. Und davon lebt das Board ja auch. Und "schlampige Arbeiten" mag ich auch selbst nicht, auch ein JAmes Turk ist sicher nicht unfehlbar.

Insofern: mea culpa - beim nächsten Mal kann ich Eure Motive und Ironie vielleicht besser einschätzen.

Pauli,
prima, daß sich ein unnötiges Mißverständnis so schnell erledigt hat.

Mein Posting war bewußt etwas knapp gefaßt und wurde dadurch unklar.

Interview with Hugo Salinas Price, Quelle: David Morgan Newsletter

Background: I am delighted to reply to your questions about my work and myself for silver money in Mexico.

I am 72 years old; I have large family, which includes 16 grandchildren. I spent my life in the retailing of home furnishings, with some activity in manufacturing. With my father as partner and mentor, I built up a chain of 59 stores in the most important cities of Mexico, selling durable goods on credit to the consumer.

I was never very good as a businessman, since I am more a contemplative person than an active wheeler-dealer. I was extremely lucky to have fallen into a good business activity and to have had the assistance of dedicated persons who were competent managers. I gave them my full support and listened carefully to their advice. We formed a team that lasted some thirty years.

In 1987, I stepped aside and left the general management of my company, to my eldest son. I cancelled all my powers of attorney, signatures on bank accounts, the works. It was a good idea; my eldest son has done a great job and my company, Grupo Elektra, is quite large today, by Mexican standards. I get a juicy dividend every year.

My training, after high school in the U.S., was patchy. I never found something I really liked – I tried finance; I tried accounting; I tried the Law; at last, desperate for something to do, I went to work as general manager in a tiny company my father had founded two years earlier. There were so many problems to solve, I never had time to think if I liked the job or not: the problem was survival. That was Elektra, a radio manufacturer at the time, then a TV. manufacturer, then an operator of stores.

As for education as distinguished from training, that was something I got for myself over the years. Father and I had always been critics of the economic policies of our country, Mexico. Father was a devotee of Austrian economics and we had an unending conversation on current affairs, up to the time of his death in 1997. I am a voracious reader and currently, I am reading about the Byzantine Empire.

SI: Mr. Price, I know you are a member of the CRME, would you tell us something about this organization?

About CMRE, the Committee for Monetary Research and Education; I greatly admire Elizabeth Currier who heads that organization, and I have been a contributing member for many years, because I have found their pamphlets on economic and monetary themes, of extraordinary value. At one of the CMRE meetings many years ago, at Arden House, the Harriman mansion overlooking the Hudson, I happened to meet Antal E. Fekete. His essay, “Borrowing Short and Lending Long: Illiquidity and Credit Collapse” published by CMRE, was for me, a revelation that has had a great deal to do with my work for re-monetizing silver.

SI: What got you interested in silver, and in particular silver as money?

When Mexico passed through its latest ordeal back in the winter of ’94-’95, I had been reading Fekete’s essay which I just mentioned; also, I had been reading comments on the cause of the Mexican collapse by Michael Belkin, and all pointed – to my mind – to the fundamental defect of our financial system: a permanently illiquid banking system, because always borrowing short and lending long. And it seemed to me that at least one cause of that, was that no depositor wished to be a holder of long-term deposits, because the money was not trustworthy. The root problem, it seemed to me, was the lack of Quality in money.

I phoned Antal Fekete and invited him to come to Mexico so we could review this latest catastrophe. We were having dinner at my home one evening and we were discussing the possibility of returning to sound money and by that road, to financial stability. We talked about gold, but I mentioned that the IMF was against the monetization of gold. I said, “Could we not use silver?” Antal asked if Mexico was a producer. I answered that Mexico was the world’s largest producer of silver. So then, we began to discuss the possibilities for silver money, and that’s how I got on this road.

I must point out that my thinking has evolved a great deal, in the intervening 10 years. Actually, I do not think that any monetary reform is possible in any country, or in the whole world. We are too far-gone down the road of malinvestment. Our financial world is doomed to collapse.

I do not any longer propose to reform the Mexican monetary system. Such a reform would kill the country! I think that all that can and should be done, is to re-introduce a silver coin into circulation as money. The amount of silver to circulate in that way (actually, it would all be saved or hoarded, call it what you wish) is not important. What is vitally important for individuals, for Mexico, and for the world, is that we humans be able to point to Mexico’s silver money coins and say: “See, that is what is good; that is what is lasting; that is what we should like to have.”

The financial serpent which has the world in its crushing coils, does not wish to allow humanity to have even one single example of good, simple silver money to which it can point. That is what we are up against.

Real money is being abolished. Money is part of civilization, and fiat money is adequate for a slave civilization. The fight for real, silver money – and gold as well – is a fight for civilization itself. But as long as silver is circulating as money in one corner of the world, it is there as an example to the whole world, of what is possible and of what is good and lasting.

SI: How popular are the Libertad with the Mexican people? What are the sales figures on an annual basis. The Silver Eagle program has sold about 10 million ounces per year on average.

The “Libertad” pure silver ounce is quite popular. Some 600,000 are minted every year, 80% of which is sold by my company, Grupo Elektra. We have the lowest buy/sell spread. We do not really strive to make money on this activity. We have about 1,000 outlets where we sell coins to anyone who walks in; they put down their paper pesos and walk out with silver coins.

SI: How many banks actually carry Libertad in inventory where someone could walk in and purchase?

The banks in the Mexican banking system do not make it easy for the silver purchaser. First of all, he has to be a client of the bank. Then, the spread is much larger. The customer must wait some days for his coin to show up. A complete hassle! I must say that 95% of the Mexican banking system is foreign owned; the largest is Banamex, now a subsidiary of Citibank. Of course, they loathe the idea of silver as money!

I have been speaking to Mexican audiences about the facts of our paper peso, and why we should insist on silver, for ten years now. I have had the assistance of T.V. Azteca, run by my eldest son, in getting the message to the people – and they have gotten the message. (T.V. Azteca is Mexico’s No. 2 national TV. chain.) A recent poll revealed that 96% of the viewers were in favor of monetizing the “Libertad” silver ounce.

Whether there is any connection between the attempts by the S.E.C. to decapitate T.V. Azteca by having my son removed from the Presidency of that broadcasting company, and the support he has given to my efforts favoring the cause of silver money, is a subject of conjecture.

I have been surprised by the general support that favors silver as money. We have practically no opposition! The only opponent is the Mexican Central Bank, which can be considered as a vassal of the Fed. They have no fundamental arguments, only some bugaboos with which they intend to frighten the legislators who can derail this project. However, of 500 congressmen, 343 have expressed support. We also have heard rumors that the Central Bank has greased the palms of some legislators. If there is substance to these rumors, and if and when this gets out to the papers and media, it won’t be good for the Banco de México.

SI: The Silver Investor is very concerned about the current economic conditions worldwide and we have tried to sound the alarm that silver is an excellent way to preserve wealth and free oneself somewhat from the fractional reserve banking system. What are your views on the monetary system and how receptive are the people of Mexico?

One of the arguments used by the Banco de México, is that savings are better off in banking deposits. Tell that to the Argentinians! Our peso has devalued some 89,567% in the last 28 years. So, the idea of our Central Bank is to make us all depositors of the banking system. Lovely! We say, “The rich can diversify their portfolios, they can hold foreign currencies, they are sophisticated and can make fortunes in speculation. Why should they get all the breaks? What about the little guy? What’s wrong with his diversifying his modest little portfolio by placing a part of his savings in silver coins? If it’s OK for a stock to go up, or for a house to go up in value, just what is wrong if the little guy’s coins go up in value?” No answer to that question.

SI: Many of the mining companies we follow are located in Mexico, do you think that the Mexican government would ever consider nationalizing the silver mines under certain economic conditions, for example if the governments finally woke up to the fact that silver was a scarce and valuable resource that is absolutely required for modern life?

About possible nationalization of silver mines: I don’t think this is at all likely. I do not worry about this, at all. What does worry me is the possibility of violence in the U.S. in the coming debacle, which is going to be of enormous magnitude, and how it is going to affect us down here. We cannot escape the repercussions; there will be severe adjustments to be made in Mexico.

SI: The mainstream financial media in the USA simply ignores the work of the Silver Investor and many others that support similar ideas to ours. How well received or not received are the ideas you feature on your website and other media outlets?

Our ideas are remarkably well accepted. We recently had full-page declarations by the Journalists’ Club of Mexico City, with 176 signatures of newspaper writers supporting the idea of monetizing the silver ounce. Absolutely incredible unanimity! I predicted the unifying power of silver in my little book, “La Plata – el Camino para México” (“Silver – the Road for Mexico”) published in 1996 which was a best seller in a country that does not read much. But, even I am surprised to see my prediction validated so completely.

SI: The Silver Investor stated last month that the news that 31 governors in Mexico all supported a sound money, a return to silver as money being the biggest news in the silver world in a very long time. In your Silver's Three Flags article, it seemed that even if the proposal was not adopted that you thought the idea would take hold and perhaps the idea alone would motivate the people to grasp it and a move into silver might begin. Would you comment on that further please?

When you have 176 writers giving support to an idea, when you have multi-party support amongst congressmen, greatly divided on other matters, you are talking about the stuff of which great changes are made. These writers are not going to go away. The idea is there. At the first sign of weakness in our monetary and financial system, they will be saying: “We told you so, and you would not listen!” How do you kill an idea? The idea is firmly rooted. Silver was our money for centuries. It’s part of our history, it is not going away. The silver issue will haunt our Central Bank until it is accepted.

I have been reading Hendrik Willem van Loon’s book, “The Arts”. He was a Dutch historian and fine writer, back in the 30’s. I came across a statement, which affected me deeply: “The fascinating part of life is its absolute unpredictability, its sublime lack of logic.”

How could I ever have imagined, as a lad, that the day would come when I could propose a fundamental change in Mexico, that would cause such grief to the Central Bank, that would elicit support of 96% of the TV. audience, that would gather support of all governors of Mexican states, massive support in our Congress and that would win support from 176 newspaper writers?

How can it be that Mexico, seen as a backward and corrupt nation by outsiders, would come down so clearly and manifestly on the side of what is good and lasting for humanity? Whoever thought that Mexico would have something to say about what money is and must be? Mexico, land of the peons? But – there it is!

Life is unpredictable and sublimely lacking in logic!

SI: What can we in America and Canada do to help you and your country to help advocate the principals of sound money?

I thank you for your kind offer of assistance on the part of individuals in the US and in Canada, David, and if I could think of some way in which you could help, I’d mention it. But I can’t think of anything that might help us. Maybe what would help us most would be attack from the US! That’s what LaRouche did just a few days ago. Anything attacking the idea of silver as money, coming from the US, will only strengthen our resolve.

This Spring we shall see the result of ten years’ of efforts, and whether the silver ounce is monetized, or not.

I hope we are successful, but if not, I am quite sure that the defeat will only be one stage in an ongoing struggle, and that further on, we shall see ever more clearly, the beauty of simple, silver money, and that eventually, silver will necessarily come back into its historic role as money.

Thanks for your support David! We should realize that what we are talking about is not just business and silver mining. We are talking about a central factor of civilization itself and of the fate of humanity.

Hugo Salinas Price

Zitat

Original von Schwabenpfeil

Gerne. Aber Deine Motive bleiben mir ein Rätsel ...

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Alles anzeigen

Hallo Schabenpfeil, mir nicht,ich fange auch keine Diskusion mit Dir an,habe eben die schlechtern Karten,bedingt durch meine marginalen englisch Kenntnissen..

Mach weiter so, mir ist es egal, ich investiere so oder so in Gold, Silber ect. was sols?

gruß hpoth

@hpoth,

schon merkwürdig, daß Du im Goldseitenforum die englischen LMC-Texte kritisiert. Sorge doch erst einmal im Silberforum - dort bist Du meines Wissens sogar Moderator - dafür, daß es zumindest deutsche Zusammenfassungen gibt.
Warum ist im Goldseitenforum schlecht, was im Silberforum anscheinend okay ist?

Die Diskussion über die englischen LMC-Berichte ist bereits ausführlich geführt worden. Sie hat ergeben, daß es durchaus einige Leute gibt, die auf diese englischen Informationen nicht verzichten möchten. Wem das nicht gefällt, kann die Postings überspringen oder den Thread übergehen. Wem ist damit geholfen, wenn hier etwas kaputtgemacht wird?

#Ulfur,

ich will ja hier garnichts kaputt machen,ich laß euch ja in Ruhe, habe mich doch dafür schon entschuldigt, langt das immer noch nicht.

gruß hpoth

February 7 – Gold $413.40 down 60 cents – Silver $6.53 down 3 cents

What Is The Real Story Behind The Brown/G-7/IMF Gold Sale Flap?

1. In every work of genius, we recognize our rejected thoughts. 2. Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted. 3. Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm. 4. The reward of a thing well done is to have done it. 5. Though we travel the world over to find the beautiful, we must carry it with us or we find it not. 6. We are always getting ready to live, but never living. 7. What you do speaks so loudly that I cannot hear what you say...Ralph Waldo Emerson

GO GATA!!!!

If there ever was a time for the gold industry to get off their butts and speak out for themselves, it is now. One thing for sure, recent developments regarding IMF gold have further shorn up the need for the work of the GATA camp re the gold loan/swaps to see further scrutiny and the light of day.

Very subtly Britain’s finance minister Gordon Brown has postured the IMF from revaluing its gold to selling it outright. This is the same Gordon Brown who sold Britain’s gold at $280. The last thing he wants is to see gold at $500, which would further embarrass him for his ill-conceived move of dumping his country’s gold so cheaply from 1999 to 2001.

We have seen the tenor of his gold sales pitch quietly increasing over the past month, culminating with this weekend’s G-7 meeting…as portrayed in this article in the FT:

G7 Mulls IMF Gold Sales to Help Poor

By Katie Allen
Reuters
Saturday, February 5, 2005

http://www.reuters.com/newsArt…inessNews&storyID=7547548

LONDON -- The International Monetary Fund will look into using its huge gold reserves to help finance debt relief for the world's poorest countries on the urging of the Group of Seven rich nations, ministers said on Saturday.

Finance chiefs from the G7 in their communique issued at the end of the two-day meeting said IMF managing director Rodrigo Rato will look at proposals to revalue or sell gold reserves to offer debt relief to alleviate global poverty.

"I believe this is the first time there has been a mention of the use of gold in a G7 communique for achieving debt relief," said British finance minister Gordon Brown, who hosted the two-day meeting in London.

He said gold sales as well as revaluations would be investigated and Rato would report back in April, when the IMF meets in Washington.

"To finance the relief of debts owed to the IMF and to enable the Fund to continue to play a role in the poorest countries, the Managing Director has stated that he will bring forward proposals ... covering the Fund's gold and other resources and in an orderly way," the communique said.

Rato said on Friday there are clear ways to sell gold effectively if IMF shareholders decide to proceed. But he stressed he was not providing an opinion.

"Certainly we have done it before and we think there are clear ways to do it that will be the most effective from a financial point of view," he said at the London meeting.

The world's poorest nations owe $12 billion to the IMF, Brown said. Overall, sub-Saharan Africa owes some $70 billion to multilateral lenders, and developing countries say repayments are crippling them by diverting funds from education and health care.

Brown has made debt relief the centerpiece of Britain's 2005 presidency of the Group of Eight, which includes the G7 nations France, Italy, Canada, Germany, Japan, and the United States as well as Russia.

He first proposed revaluing IMF gold stocks with off-market sales last year. Under a 1971 agreement, most IMF gold is valued at $40 to $50 an ounce, or about one-tenth of current market prices. The fund holds 103.4 million ounces of gold.

Brown has said revaluing the gold could free up billions of dollars to ease debt burdens on the world's poor.

But U.S. Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor said the United States had other plans for alleviating poverty.

Asked about using IMF gold stocks he said: "The United States is not convinced that's the necessary way to do it."

The United States has a de-facto veto power on IMF gold sales because of its voting weight at the fund.

Leading gold producer Canada was cautious in its support.

"If a technical answer can be found that does not compromise the IMF's integrity, we are prepared to go with it," said Canadian Finance Minister Ralph Goodale after the London talks.

But the plan received key backing from the world's largest gold producer, South Africa, although Finance Minister Trevor Manuel cautioned there must be a rational approach to sales.

"Unless we manage this process, you might have disruptive sales, which will have disastrous consequences for gold-producing countries," he told Reuters on the sidelines of the G7 talks.

He suggested staggered sales to ensure market stability.

"I would rather have an arrangement where we agree to sell, agree to order, agree to a queuing system. I would be happy to have the IMF have some preference in that queue so that we don't impede the debt relief," he said.

-END-

What to make of it all:

*Brown and his Gold Cartel allies have succeeded in casting a pall over the gold market which may last for months. Veteran gold market observers all know what happened to the price of gold when Britain announced their sales in 1999 and when Australia bombed the market in 1997.

*What is coming out from the G-7 meeting is for public consumption. The real story is a very different one. The only aspect which is transparent is Brown pushing for sales to keep the price of gold capped for the foreseeable future.

*It is inconceivable how the South African finance minister said what he did, except to understand the man is bought and paid for and yes, a traitor to his people and the poor of his country. South African gold companies are laying off workers and delaying plans to hire more miners because they cannot make enough profit at these gold price levels with their costs having risen so sharply. Lower gold prices for years to come will be devastating.

Perhaps Manuel really is stupid, yet a nincompoop would know that even talk of outright gold sales would put a damper on the price and scare away potential investors – at least western investors – which would adversely affect the price. Since a lowered gold price hurts so many people in South Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, he should have lowered the boom on Brown, not facilitate his proposal.

This will give you some idea of how powerful The Gold Cartel and the powers behind them really are. Manuel’s moronic comments were blunt. Where were Canada’s and Australia’s finance ministers when they were talked into selling their gold? Think of how the lowered gold price has affected so many companies in Canada and Australia over the past half decade – the lowered economic activity, etc. There is no doubt in my mind the price of gold will soar above $1,000+ per ounce in the years to come, IMF sales or no. The governments of Canada and Australia will not participate as both countries have dumped ALL their gold.

*No country is more anti-gold than the US. GATA has 6 years of documentation of this. Therefore, you can be sure U.S. Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor’s objection to gold sales is a red herring of sorts. While speculation on my part, there is good reason to believe the US is scared to death of the gold issue being raised, as it may lead to questions about US gold, a portion of which has most likely been clandestinely mobilized (lend or swapped out). The last thing the US wants is for this issue to become a highly discussed one in our country. This would be just the opportunity for GATA to bring up the hard questions re US gold, a nightmare for the US Treasury, Fed, certain members of Congress etc.

How interesting that Treasury Secretary Snow developed a cold right after the State of the Union Address on Wednesday and the G-7 meeting on Friday. Did he fear pointed questions regarding gold and perhaps the role of the Exchange Stabilization Fund these days in capping the gold price?

*Now for the potential good news. It is the general notion in the GATA camp that The Gold Cartel is running low on enough physical gold to keep the price from moving MUCH higher. This has been my take for months. Now, we have Gold Cartel apologist Brown demoralizing the gold market with his calls for outright IMF sales. Let us go retro:

There was a clamor to sell IMF Gold in 1999, which was roundly defeated, with support for the measure coming mostly from the US Treasury. Britain announced their sale program only after this measure was defeated, just as gold was finally about to take out $300 per ounce on the upside. The point is The Gold Cartel was scrambling for gold back then to cap the price and England came to their rescue. Here we are six years later and they appear to be in a similar situation, with one immense difference. The Gold Cartel has gone though 6,000 to 10,000 tonnes of central bank gold since then. One fifth to one third of central bank gold has been used up, bought by the Chinese, Arabs, Turks, Indians, etc. Wherever The Gold Cartel found their gold over these past years, it is gone.

The only question is who is out the gold? The British? Could they be short? The US? Is our "Deep Storage" Treasury gold really gold which is yet to be mined because we have lent out, or swapped out, most of our gold? Does the US have some kind of tacit agreement with the likes of Barrick, etc., to replace this gold down the road if they feel they are going to be found out? Hard to know...all of these notions are very plausible.

What GATA does know is some of the above is the way it is. The only question is exactly who are the culprits and when will they be found out. Since there is a 1500+ tonne yearly supply/demand deficit, discovery is only a matter of time. Therefore, while The Gold Cartel and allies have sullied the very short-term, the big picture grows even brighter.

Yes, it is very plausible The Gold Cartel is truly hitting the fan and knows the jig is up, gradually coming to the end of the decade-long scheme as they know they don’t have the gold to keep up their scam. It is conceivable they are using this opportunity to do what they can to rout the market and turn the specs short. Why? Because they need to buy all the gold they can down here to cover some undisclosed predicaments (England covering shorts, for example). Not only talking about countries here. This is the chance for JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs to continue to cover too. They might not get a better one for decades to come.

Meanwhile, it is amazing how gullible certain in the mainstream are when it comes to what Wall Street and officialdom puts out there. None is more visibly gullible than Denis Gartman, of the widely-followed Gartman Letter. His latest today on the G-7/IMF flap:

The gold bulls got a reprieve over the weekend when it was decided at the G-7 meeting to defer any action on the plan put forth by UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Brown to tackle the problems of Third World debt and aid by selling gold from the IMF's reserves... or from the reserves of the various industrialised nations. In the communiqué released at the meeting's end, the leaders said only that they would take up the discussion at a later date... perhaps in April in Washington and/or perhaps in the UK in June Mr. Rodrigo Rato, the IMF's Managing Director, has been given the portfolio to look into the matter of such gold sales and/or reserve re-valuation and to make his case at the April meeting. The IMF has 3,217 tonnes of gold in store, valued at approximately 20% of its current spot price and the most likely proposal that he will put forth shall be to revalue that gold, strengthen the IMF's balance sheet, and use that stronger balance sheet either to borrow against, with the proceeds going to the Third World, or actually selling the told in question and using those very real proceeds to pay down that same debt.

For the moment, however, the proposition has been tabled and put into Mr. Rato's hands for later consideration. The US led the opposition to Mr. Brown's proposals, and was rather openly critical of his proposal to use national and/or IMF gold reserves in some fashion for the aid he hoped to put forth. We are left to wonder how our friends at GATA, who are so convinced that the US has lead a conspiracy to keep gold prices down, shall view the US opposition to gold sales this time now. It leaves GATA in a bit of a quandary, for suddenly the governments are not their enemy but are instead their aid and comfort..

-END-

Now compare what Dennis G has to say versus two veteran Café members:

Bill,
The last few months have been very frustrating for us all and the last couple of weeks even more so. I admire your tenacity and ability to continue to swim not only up the stream less traveled but often against tremendous current. It must feel like you are knocking your head on a very hard wall at times. I just hope that one day we are all rewarded for hanging on to our gold and gold stocks.

Things must really be bad as even I could not handle the latest call from the financial wizard in the UK. I have sent the following letter to the Australian Financial Review and also to the British Financial Times. I purposely wrote it in an Australian folksy way to give me the best chance of getting it printed in Australia at least. The trouble is the press here and the UK remains fairly gutless and probably won’t touch this. If you have any addresses for German, French, Italian financial news papers or any other outlet I could try I will be happy to give them a try.

As I have at least gone to the trouble of putting this letter together please feel free to use my letter in any way you wish at least a few of your readers may get a laugh. After the last few weeks I’m sure like me they could use one.

Please keep on the good work.
Best regards: Andy Igo

Crocodile tears for the third world!

An Australian view:

I'm all for generous philanthropic gestures; however, I find it difficult to swallow the UK chancellor Gordon Brown's latest call to the IMF. It's possible he has a genuine feeling for his fellow man and he would have us believe it's for the world's poor. He calls for the IMF to revalue its store of gold, (his real call is for the IMF to sell its gold) and forgive third world debt. This noble gesture of debt relief for the poor countries around the world requires a closer look especially for us as Australians. As a major gold producing country any action to push down the price of gold (and this is what his real call is for) would hurt one of our major industries. The last time Chancellor Brown agitated for IMF gold sales to relieve third world debt in the spring of 1999 he failed to become the champion of the third world poor.

However; in the summer of the same year he achieved a degree of empathy for the British people with the third world's poor. He started a string of UK gold sales from her majesty's treasury and by signaling to the market in three monthly intervals ensured that he got the lowest price possible for the gold. Out it went at bargain prices between US $250 & $300. He then went on to invest the funds raised in US dollars and treasury notes and other foreign currency instruments and promptly managed to lose a further 30% of the British reserves. Whilst this did little for the third world debt relief it did take the British people a lot closer to them. Strangely this action appears to have been well received by the British people as rather than run him out of London at the point of a pitch-fork they gave him a pay rise and he has a fat pension to look forward to.

To be fair to Gordon I believe he is genuinely trying to help a group of people and my best guess is it's his mates down at the club. You see his mates at the club run a few English bullion banks and they have got themselves in to a spot of bother with the gold carry trade and if they don't find a lot of cheap gold shortly it's curtains for the lot of them. An early hint of this bit of bother by the way was Rothschild's giving up their seat on the London gold desk after many years.

Thankfully the Germans, French and other members of the G7 and IMF can see through Gordon's shenanigans and hopefully our own gold industry can be spared. This will then allow us as Australians to continue to make real contributions to the third world. Such as John Howard's magnanimous gesture of one billion dollars of aid to our northern neighbour in her hour of need.

A (Andy) J. Igo
Brisbane

Bill,
Here's a couple of thoughts about the IMF gold sale proposal. First, since this is a public sale, not one of the Cabal's midnight raids, there is going to be a lot of attention focused on the pros and cons of the issue. With any luck it will lead to a wider airing of GATA's charges. There will also likely be some real discussion of what gold sales do to African economies. This is all to the good and a real gamble for the Cartel.

Second, the 100 million ounce figure used for the IMFs reserves equals 3428 tons of gold (about equal to France or Germany's reserves, I think). Since the Washington Agreement II publicly determined that the market could only bear 500 tons per year of official sales and the Europeans are already selling that, it will be very difficult for the pro-sales forces to round up 85% of the votes to agree to sell much, if any, extra gold above that. This is especially true with Canada skeptical about the outright sale of any IMF gold.

Moreover, for mysterious reasons, the pro-sales forces got their signals crossed with the U.S. Treasury. For whatever reason, the Bush administration's first reaction was to toss cold water on the whole idea. This is the most puzzling element of the story and I hope some information on what's behind it leaks out.

It seems to me that the cartel must be feeling a whole lot of heat to risk a major public debate on gold when their odds of winning are so uncertain. If they lose the debate, then the psychological threat of IMF sales will be forever lost to them - a major blow as they run out of physical resources to keep gold's price down.

And last — congrats on the Pats!
best wishes,
Peter R.

As usual, gold was assaulted on the Comex. Both the AM Fix ($414.50) and PM Fix ($414.40) were higher than Friday’s US close.

Word from our STALKER is their London gold bullion dealer source is ballistic over the "concerted" effort to drive the little guy from the bullion market. The feeling in London is once they are taken out, as is occurring, they won’t come back for some time. Most of the sources of our STALKER have expected gold to be pummeled as a result of the coordinated bullion bank selling. One was surprised gold held up as well as it did today.

A rumor floating around London has been that Greenspan would step down once new Attorney General Gonzalez was sworn in. We shall see.

While the technical make-up for silver is deteriorating, the most influential trader on the floor (Morgan Stanley) is a raving bull and is calling for much higher prices.

The John Brimelow Report

CFTC curiosity

Monday, February 07, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.25, PM $7.33, with world gold at $414.10 and $414.75 Ample for legal imports.

Very attentive observers of this data might feel these premiums (which are basis Bombay), while supportive of heavy Indian importing, are a little low considering the $30 decline in gold this year. The answer may lie in an interesting report carried on TheBullionDesk on Friday from the Indian Precious metals consultant Bhargava Vaidya & Associates:

January had seen very good demand for bullion all across the country…There was a shortage of supply of kg bars in Indian Market. This gave a flip to premium much to delight of

International dealers….Delhi region reduced Tax to 0.25 % from 1%. Thus most Imports were routed through Jaipur Delhi & Ahemedabad. (JB emphasis)

This warrants some research; it is true the Ahmedabad premiums (which I also monitor) are at levels usually associated with Bombay premiums closer to $9. n any case, India clearly continues to be a stalwart support to gold.

Shanghai is closed for the Chinese New Year until the 15th, but TOCOM was apparently slightly interested. Volume jumped 40% to the equivalent of 25,435 Comex lots, and although open interest fell by 188 Comex, Mitsubishi’s data suggests the public added 4.467 tonnes to their long (1,436 Comex lots). World gold slipped 90c from the NY close; the active contract was down 6 yen, getting close to the January and July 2004 lows. If the yen develops any downward momentum, support from this quarter might become significant. (NY on Friday traded 59,831 lots; open interest fell 1,746 contracts.)

Friday’s shock employment numbers might, in a different era, have triggered a significant gold rally. As it was, in ScotiaMocatta’s words:

"The metal ran as high as 417.80/418.30 where dealer offering capped the price rise… Gold then reversed direction and soon came under heavy selling pressure.."

Whoever is selling has no interest, apparently, in scaling up.

The IMF gold sales story continues to sustain the odd situation that a number of professional commentators, several with a history of gold skepticism, do not credit it on rational and analytical arguments. Yet the market is pressured.

As noted last week, when Governments are involved, it is prudent to guard against motives other than those declared. It does appear that part at least of the Official Sector wants, for some reason, to pressure gold at present – lead by the UK Chancellor.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The US stock market continues to carry on. The DOW was unchanged at 10,716, while the DOG lost 5 to 2082.

US economic news:

15:00 Dec. Consumer Credit $3.1B vs. consensus $8B
Prior reading revised to +$2B from ($8.7B).
* * * * *

The dollar took off against all of the major currencies and closed at 85.10, up .65. The euro was trounced, dropping 1.05 to 127.76. Yet, US interest rates continued to fall sharply. The 30-year long bond jumped another 17/32 to 116 14/32. Something is all wrong here.

La-la land rules the day everywhere. It is almost inconceivable how the spinister Orwellians can so easily hoodwink the financial press and public with their propaganda. When you look at the real numbers and what is actually transpiring, there is little resemblance to the spin Wall Street is putting on the US economic picture.

Take the budget for example:

Bush Sends Congress $2.57 Trillion Budget
2/7 (AP) - President Bush sent Congress a $2.57 trillion budget plan Monday that seeks deep spending cuts across a wide swath of government from reducing subsidies paid to the nation's farmers, cutting health care payments for poor people and veterans and trimming spending on the environment and education. The budget -- the most austere of Bush's presidency -- would eliminate or vastly scale back 150 government programs. It will spark months of contentious debate in Congress, where lawmakers will fight to protect their favored programs… -END-

The problem is:

"Most of the cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars will not be included in the budget. Instead, it will be sent to Congress as a supplemental budget request for 2006, just as the administration recently announced an $80-billion supplemental request for the current fiscal year." AP

How can this be? In other words the money spent on the wars is different than the money spent on building highways? This money is for wars that are two and three years old with no end in sight. How does that qualify for "supplemental?"

Then there is a little item like why the stock and bond markets are doing what they are – it’s called liquidity via helicopter money injections. From Richard Russell on Friday:

February 4, 2005--

With the bonds UP, mortgage rates are coming down even further. On top of that, the Fed is flooding the system with reserves. And it's all going into REAL ESTATE and HOUSING. All the building stocks that I follow were up 2 to 3 points today and all are at their highs. The country is going "out of its mind" buying and speculating in housing. Real estate today is where tech stocks were in 1998-99. It's the arrival of super-bubble.

In the meantime, the Fed sees some of the hints of deflation that I've been talking about. So -- forget those itty-bitty mini-boosts in the Fed Funds, the fact is that Fed funds are still well below the inflation rate.And are you ready for this? Two weeks ago M-3, the broad money supply, was up a huge $38.4 billion. The latest figure for the week ended January 24 shows M-3 up another $16 .3 billion. That's an increase of $54.7 billion in two weeks!! What's the annualized rate? You do the math. What's going on? What's the Fed doing? Is the Fed fighting deflation? Or is the Fed keeping the housing boom going? Or both?…

-END-

Normally, such an increase would be dollar bearish, gold bullish. In time it will be. However, it is lost these days with Wall Street/Bush Administration/Fed spin ruling the airwaves, media and the day.

Then there is a little matter about the real US jobs picture. Jesse came up with some fine work on Friday.