Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

President Zokwana told me that he and other Union officials would study the matter very seriously.

From there my waiting driver sped off to Pretoria, the country's Capitol. There I met with Lambertus Van Zyl, General Manager (Hoofbestuurder) of the International Banking Department and Alan R.H. Colburn (Assistant Hoofbestuurder) of the South African Reserve Bank and 7 staff members/executives of the Department of Minerals and Energy in their Board Room.

The room was something else - large with a huge oval desk, comfortable chairs and a mike for each attendee. Then there were all these screens at the end of the oval to present visual material. The Reserve Bank officials said very little but took copious notes.

I reiterated the same theme as I did with the Mine Union executives except with an additional twist. I told them that they could find out themselves about our claims by asking the right questions to the right people. I suggested that after reading Howe's Complaint, the Gold Derivative Banking Crisis document and James Turk's 'Smoking Gun' that they attempt to quietly get the answers to the following questions:

1. To the IMF: Is it possible that IMF gold is reaching the physical gold market in any way, shape, form or fashion? Does the IMF have gold on deposit at the Bank for International Settlements? If so, how much? Is any IMF gold deposited at the BIS or IMF "earmarked gold" at the New York Fed entering the physical gold market at this point in time?

2. To the BIS: Are you lending gold on behalf of the IMF in any way?

3. To the bullion banks: According to the statistics of the BIS and the Office of The Controller of The Currency in the U. S., the notional value of gold derivatives exploded on the books of Chase Manhattan Corp., J.P Morgan & Co. Inc., Citigroup, Inc and Deutsche Bank from June 1999 through January 2000, while remaining steady at other bullion banks. How do these Defendants in the Howe/GATA Complaint account for this gold derivative build up, which is quite large in relation to their capital?

4. To Secretary O’Neil at the U.S. Treasury: Various Treasury officials have denied any involvement in the gold market by the Exchange Stabilization Fund. However, beginning in 1996 there is a pattern of discrepancies between the Fed’s gold certificate account and the quarterly U. S. Treasury statements (that include the ESF gold figures) which should be the same. At the end of 1999, the ESF showed a record $41 million, or approximately 30 tonnes, excess over the gold certificate account. Could you please reconcile the discrepancy since the Clinton Administration reported to Congress that it did not engage in any currency interventions from 1998 through March 2000? Can you explain during this period how it is that the ESF reported profits that generally coincided with periods of falling gold prices while its losses generally coincided with rising gold prices?

5. To Bank of England Governor Edward George: Did you make a statement to Nicholas J. Morrell, Chief Executive of Lonmin Pic, following the price rise after the Washington Accord that essentially said the following?:

We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake. Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, to manage it. It was very difficult to get the gold price under control but we have now succeeded. The U.S. Fed was very active in getting the gold price down. So was the U.K.

Alan Greenspan of the Fed and Paul O’Neil, new U.S. Treasury Secretary, should be asked whether the U.S. intervened in the gold market in any way following the sharp price rise after the Washington Accord.

6. To J.P. Morgan Chase and Citibank: Has any facet of the U.S Treasury or U.S. Fed guaranteed any gold derivative positions on your books against a loss?

7. To Randall Oliphant, Chief Executive Officer of Barrick Gold: Are you restricted in any way from covering certain derivative positions as a result of any agreements with any bullion banks such as J.P Morgan?

At the end of the 75 minute presentation, they convened and then came back to tell me that they would take the matter very seriously and wanted to know what they felt would be the latest they should be in touch with the U.S Treasury should they decide to do so?

It was a big plus to distribute copies of all the many letters from U.S. Congressmen and Senators that have raised the gold market manipulation issue with the Clinton Administration. Having them with me helped considerably in bolstering GATA's credibility with the people I met with. All GATA supporters should know that your efforts are paying off. GATA Treasurer/Secretary Chris Powell and I thank you all.

From Pretoria back to Johannesburg for an interview with the South African Broadcasting Company for a story they are doing on the GATA trip to their country. The camera was rolling, so we will have to set if the story shows up on their nightly news TV broadcast.

As far as I can tell, the journey to South Africa was a winner. GATA received 10 times as much press coverage in two weeks as we have received the last two years combined. mhthomas@gmail.com.

For me personally, it was the most satisfying experience of my life. Yes, all of us would like the gold price to go up so that we can prosper, but of greater significance, is that we all have an opportunity to constructively affect the economy of half a continent. The success of our efforts will determine the fate of millions of people. It is no less than a life and death situation for many poor Africans. They desperately need injections of money to combat disease and crime.

Over and over I was told that many young blacks commit crime and have indiscriminate sex (resulting in an AIDS epidemic) because there is no hope. A soaring gold price would mean many workers all over Southern Africa would have jobs again. Hope would return. Africa could become the natural resource "Boom Continent," not the "Hopeless Continent" as Britain's Economist called it.

When GATA was first formed, I chuckled when Chris Powell said "let's change the world." Amazingly, Chris was right; it is really possible that we can to a certain degree. All that need be done for that to happen is to have Reg Howe's Complaint reach the discovery stage. At that point in time, the Howe/GATA lawyers can ask the Defendants to answer our questions under oath. When that happens, the size of the huge short gold position will become known, the market will realize the GATA camp is right, savvy major investment players will start buying up physical gold, the price will soar, and it will be a brand new day.

BILL MURPHY
CHAIRMAN
GOLD ANTI-TRUST ACTION COMMITTEE

Support GOLDRUSH 21!

Schwabenpfeil
thanks for your report about SA. Yes, we only can hope, I hope since 20 years but crime is getting out of hand. The justice sytem is too soft and there is no respect of law and order. A murderer can get out of jail for 500 Rand and many disappear into the wilderness.It is getting very uncomfortable and we have Apartheid in reverse now. Many whites have lost hope and think in 3-5 years it will become another Zimbabwe where whites are discriminated and cased out of the country.Anyhow, lets hope on ! regards, Eldorado (Always nice to come only on holiday !)

Forecast 1:
Gold should find a top in April of 475. From mid-April through May, gold could sell off to 429 support. By December 2005, we are looking for 500 to 529. If 529 top is broken and closed three times, 650 is within reach. If we hit 650 by December 2005, gold will quickly pivot and sell off back to 496 support and base there for the next up rally.

Silver should hit a minimum of 8.50 by March/April. I expect it to move faster than gold when gold begins to rally again. If so, silver could achieve the next main top of 9.795 by April. This is doubtful, as gold is still not showing the strength for silver to follow it that far. In May 2005, we see a sell off to 7.50, followed by a choppy quiet period. The fall rally begins in late July or August, continuing on to a December 2005 top of 9.795-10.00. Should silver break 10.00 while running faster than gold and overshoot, 12.50-15.00 is the next topping area.

2005 Estimates from 20 analyst :
LOW HIGH AVERAGE (USD)

Gold
396 - 480 ( 433)

Silver
5.73 - 7.88 (6.56)


Platinum
729 - 941 (814)


Palladium

154 - 255 (200)

Wenn es ruhig bleibt und keine krisen da sind glaube ich kann die vorhersage stimmen.

Guter Bericht heute auf den Goldseiten:
http://www.goldseiten.de/conte…s/artikel.php?storyid=796

I wonder what your forecast is for 2005 ?

@alle

Weiss irgend jemand im Forum was mit Thai Guru los ist ?
Ich finde keine postings mehr von ihm.

Ich weiss er schreibt von Thailand, hoffentlich ist er ok.
Wenn nicht dann suche ich ihn ab Donnerstag naechster Woche selber dort. Vielleicht laueft er mir ueber den Weg innerhalb eines monat.

regards

Eldo

# Eldorado,

am besten suchst Du ihn dort, auf seine pirvaten-Mails gibt er auch keine Antwort schon seit Wochen-bevor der Katastrophe-,erschreibt auch nicht mehr in anderen Foren.

gruß hpoth

Don't forget to share FreeWeek with your friends, colleagues and chat room buddies. Send them to http://www.elliottwave.com/freeweek to sign up.

Zitat

Original von Eldorado

Weiss irgend jemand im Forum was mit Thai Guru los ist ?
Ich finde keine postings mehr von ihm.

Ich weiss er schreibt von Thailand, hoffentlich ist er ok.
Wenn nicht dann suche ich ihn ab Donnerstag naechster Woche selber dort. Vielleicht laueft er mir ueber den Weg innerhalb eines monat.

Alles anzeigen

Hallo Eldo, Hallo hpoth,

vor ca. 2 Monaten hatte ich mal einen kurzen Mailkontakt mit Thai Guru. Ich denke es geht Ihm gut, seine Postingpause hat wohl andere Gründe. Die Arbeit der GATA liegt ihm weiterhin sehr am Herzen.

Er hatte mich seinerzeiten auf einen Spendenaufruf der GATA aufmerksam gemacht, dem ich auch sehr gerne gefolgt bin. Es wäre Ihm sicherlich eine große Freude, wenn sich noch mehr Freunde des Goldes zu einer Unterstützung der GATA durchringen könnten.

Für diejenigen, die sich hierüber näher informieren wollen, der folgende Link:

http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1102434933.php

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Silber jetzt bei 6,93!!

Hier ein interessantes Interview,stolen by kitco:

“Not Free, Not Fair” An Update on the Gold Cartel

By John Embry
February 9, 2005

http://www.sprott.com
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When it comes to discussing gold price, John Embry doesn’t mince words. Last August, the Chief Investment Strategist for Sprott Asset Management put out a report on systematic manipulation of the gold market—something he believes has been going on for a long time—entitled simply, “Not Free, Not Fair”.

The document is a sort of X-Files of gold trading, delving into the seamy underworld of international finance, where banks report phantom gold and the world’s most powerful financiers cut secret deals with each other to advance their agendas. But this is no television show: Embry details over 60 pages of facts, stats, and expert commentary on the actions of the “gold cartel”, challenging conventional wisdom that gold trades under market forces.

The situation now, his report notes, is similar to the late sixties and early seventies, when a conglomerate of European banks known as the London Gold Pool joined forces with the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep the gold price fixed at $35/oz. Member banks contributed gold bullion into a pool that could be sold onto the market when the gold price started to rise. Thus any incipient gold run ups were stopped dead. Central banks today are similarly flooding the market periodically with gold, states Embry’s report, the only difference being that then “the management of gold price was out in the open,” whereas today “everything is occurring in a covert fashion.”

As evidence of this hidden intervention, Embry points to the fact that several promising gold rallies over the last few years have coincided with announcements of gold sales from central banks that immediately caused the gold price to plunge. He also delves into the bookkeeping of the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) – a body that has a stated mission of maintaining price stability in foreign exchange markets. Although the Fund claims not to trade any gold on behalf of the U.S. Treasury, analysts like James Turk have speculated that it may in fact be doling out gold to strategically depress prices. As Embry points out, a recent lawsuit against the ESF alleging its involvement in gold price-fixing revealed discrepancies between gold on its books and gold in its vaults. He quotes plaintiff Reg Howe (of Golden Sextant Advisors, a gold investment banking service) as saying that the suspicious numbers, “imply corresponding gold trading activities by the ESF.”

The real victims of this price management, says Embry, are small gold traders who believe they are buying and selling in a free market and have been kept from realizing their rightful gains. Mining companies have also suffered, he notes, because of the sluggish prices that manipulation creates.

With news of potential sales from the International Monetary Fund currently helping to put pressure on gold, we thought it was a particularly appropriate time to catch up with John Embry for an update on the themes presented in “Not Free, Not Fair”.

Interview by Dave Forest for KitcoCasey

K/C: It’s been almost six months since your report came out. Where would you say we are now in terms of gold-price manipulation?

Embry: The thing that’s amazing, if you can imagine, is that the suppression and manipulation of the gold price is worse now in my opinion than it’s ever been.

K/C: You said in your report that so-called “bullion banks” are one of the major factors motivating the suppression of the gold price. These banks borrowed gold when it was cheap, sold it, and then invested the money they earned. But now they owe so much gold that having to repay it, especially at higher gold prices, would cause bankruptcies and a major financial crisis, something the central banks won’t allow. Are these bullion banks at risk today?

Embry: That’s hard to document, although I believe that an enormous number of derivatives are probably at risk. My suspicion is that the central banks, who are in cahoots with the bullion banks, may have let these guys off the hook by assuming their debts. But it really doesn’t make any difference whether the bullion banks owe the gold or the central banks eat the loss and then just don’t have enough gold in their vaults. Either scenario would be very bullish for the gold market.

K/C: If the central banks have assumed the liabilities of bullion banks, does that change the situation at all?

Embry: No it doesn’t. Eventually they just won’t have the gold to put into the market. At that point, I don’t know how the central banks would cover it. Maybe just with paper. Banks can create as much paper as they want. They can’t create gold.

K/C: And how would it affect the market overall if the banks don’t have enough physical gold to cover their obligations?

Embry: Well, for one thing, it’s inflationary. And also any sort of revelation along those lines would drive physical gold buying berserk. People would realize that the whole scam was over.

K/C: In the past, you’ve also mentioned that the U.S. government has a vested interest in keeping gold undervalued because the gold price is viewed as a “canary in the coal mine” for the dollar—that is, if gold goes up, investors figure something is wrong with the greenback and the U.S. economy. Given the weakness we saw in the dollar at the end of last year, could we expect U.S. officials to step up anti-gold campaigning?

Embry: I think that explains very well what we’re seeing. There’s concern about inflation, we’ve got measured interest rate rises, we’ve got a housing boom that’s out of control. To me it portends inflation and a collapse of the U.S. dollar. But if they can keep the gold price looking boring then they can point at that and say, "If there was a problem, the gold market would have picked up on it.” They can suggest that the weak prices indicate there is no problem. And I think there’s a huge problem.

K/C: So there may be more U.S. interest now in keeping gold down?

Embry: You can bet on it. If they go deeper into this morass of debt, it’s absolutely essential that they keep up the appearances of low inflation, so they can keep interest rates at a very low level. That’s the only way that this whole thing can continue. They don’t want gold looking good against the U.S. dollar, so they’re pulling out all the stops. They’ve created the illusion that everything is fine.

K/C: So, you’d say that the drivers for gold price suppression are still in place?

Embry: If anything, they’re intensifying. There is probably a growing physical shortage of gold. From everything I can see—the physical demand for gold bullion going through Turkey, which is a conduit into the Middle East, premiums in India and Shanghai, the fact that gold refineries can’t meet demand—all this stuff to me bespeaks tremendous physical demand. At the same time, we had mine supply down four percent last year. So when I project these trends over the next few years, I think the best we could do is hold gold supply flat, and chances are it will actually continue to decline. If that’s the case, with the physical market on fire, in the absence of tremendous amounts of central bank gold entering the market the price has to go up. Up like a rocket. So the anti-gold interests have to keep trying to make gold look bad.

K/C: Do you think these forces were involved in the gold price drops we’ve seen this month?

Embry: There’s no question that there’s manipulation going on. Gold has fallen eight or nine percent in the last two months. People say gold is an inverse correlation to the U.S. dollar. Well, the dollar’s been firmer, but it’s only up about 5 percent. The fact that gold is down significantly more than that, while the physical picture for gold is so strong, would say to me that there’s something in the market that doesn’t meet the smell test.

K/C: To change tack a bit, what was the reaction to “Not Free, Not Fair” when it came out?

Embry: That’s a good question. It was received by anyone who shared our opinion as a worthwhile contribution to the cause. But otherwise it was met mostly with eerie silence from the gold community. A few people in the mining companies expressed to me their appreciation, but a lot just won’t go there.

K/C: Why is that?

Embry: If you’re a gold company, taking on the establishment may not be the smartest move. The governments control your taxes, your permits, and there’s a lot of ways they could make life more difficult for you. The World Gold Council does not support this report at all—they’re controlled by the hedgers who have a totally different agenda. All they want to do is sell more gold jewelry or something, which to me is absurd.

(Editor’s note: Although the gold community may have been silent about the report, they have in the past spoken out about gold price manipulation. Former Placer Dome CEO John Willson told the Financial Times in 1999, “I find it difficult to believe… that there is not some concerted action going on between central banks to hold inflation down through holding down the price of gold.” Around the same time, an AngloGold spokesman told The Independent, “For a long time we, as producers, saw people manipulating our market.” A London Dow Jones article on 1999 gold sales by the Bank of England put it much more bluntly, saying, “Central banks are selling gold in order to prevent a further sharp rise in prices from causing a major financial crisis.”)

K/C: What outcome are you hoping to see in terms of breaking price suppression?

Embry: It’s one of these things that’s going to be either black or white. Today it looks like the gold market is a true market, reflecting reality. At some point, it will be overtaken by financial events that will make people see that the emperor, in fact, doesn’t have any clothes. I’m comfortable with this point of view because I was involved in the gold market in the early seventies, and that was not dissimilar to now. The London Gold Pool put a lid on the market from 1968-71 and the central banks dumped well over a hundred million ounces into the market and they kept the gold price in the $35 range. But then they reached the tipping point where the demand was far greater than what they were willing to dump into the market, and the price exploded. I think the gold fundamentals are better this time. The longer they keep the lid on, the higher it will eventually go.

K/C: So this is something that will just fall apart on its own?

Embry: Absolutely. We hoped, by writing that report, that we could point out to people what was really going on in the market—and perhaps expedite the falling apart.

K/C: Has it had an effect?

Embry: I think so. When I first started to talk about this subject several years ago, most people looked at me like I had two heads. Now, I think the activity in the market has been sufficiently blatant and obvious that anyone who is prepared to look at it with an open mind will acknowledge that there is management of the gold price. I hate the word conspiracy—I think if you put this in its simplest terms, the central banks recognize that gold is a currency and they do not make any bones about that fact that they manage currencies. So in their way, on that premise, they can justify managing gold. But the problem is that it’s supposed to be a free market and the guys who are trading it on the premise of it being a free market are getting screwed.

K/C: What do you see for gold prices if they break out of this “management”?

Embry: I see multiples of the current price. When I see people projecting $460 or $500 two or three years out, I don’t buy that. I think it’s either going to be in the current range because they’ve been successful in defusing gold as an asset, or it’s going to be markedly higher. And I think the chances of it being markedly higher far exceed the chances of them keeping it in this range.

K/C: And the trigger for a big move upward would be…?

Embry: The trigger is two-fold. Firstly, further deterioration in the financial situation of the world—to keep this whole debt bubble going they’re going to have to create more paper. That’s the fundamental reason why people at the margin will move from paper to gold. Then you set that against the backdrop of falling mine supply creating a huge gap with natural demand. Once the central banks aren’t in a position to fill that gap, to me, it’s a lay-up. I also think there are other central banks who do not have the same point of view as the western central banks—China, Russia, etc.—and I think they’re buying gold every time the western banks sell. When the day comes and everybody opens their books up, there’s going to be very little gold left in the western central banks. It’s all going to be in the eastern central banks. That’s when the price will really get marked up.

K/C: So once demand outstrips the central banks’ ability to supply the gap, the lid comes off?

Embry: Exactly. Big time.

Schwabenpfeil,

eine sehr schöne Nachricht, daß Du noch vor 2 Monaten Kontakt mit Thai hattest.

Die abrupte und absolute Sendepause seit mehreren Monaten war doch bedrückend.

Zitat

Original von Ulfur

eine sehr schöne Nachricht, daß Du noch vor 2 Monaten Kontakt mit Thai hattest.

Die abrupte und absolute Sendepause seit mehreren Monaten war doch bedrückend.

Hallo Ulfur,

kann ich gut verstehen, war auch für mich bedrückend. War daher auch froh über den kurzen Kontakt ...

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

February 10 – Gold $416.90 up $4.40 – Silver $6.94 up 38 cents

Hold That Tiger….And They Did / Silver Soars

Modern man drives a mortgaged car over a bond-financed highway on credit-card gas...Earl Wilson

GO GATA!!!

Nice to have some fun for a change. People who know me (like bro Tim) have to put up with me whistling the Princeton fight song (Hold That Tiger), sort of one I guess, when I am in a fun mood because the markets have surprisingly gone my way. Two times out of three when I blurt out that tune it is a top. Oh well.

One day does not make a market, yet at least we have some sanity back for one trading session. Yet, it was the same drill when gold wanted to explode after going up $4 on the day. THE GOLD CARTEL, led by Deutsche Bank JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, sold and sold to dampen any serious excitement. And, of course, the $6 Rule reigned again as the high for the trading session was up $5.80. In light of what other commodities did and the dollar falling, the recovery move was modest at best.

Silver was another matter. For a couple of weeks MIDAS has touted how explosive silver was. Nothing happened except it drifted off. I reported that the biggest player on the floor, Morgan Stanley, was ravingly bullish. Then I got the goofy comment two days ago VIA my STALKER source how the big physical players in London told him they were going to teach the paper guys on the Comex a lesson. These were the same characters who were maligning the Comex shorts for suppressing the price while demand was so strong in London. As I previously stated, what was sent my way made no sense. So much so I asked my contact to double check the plan of these dealers with a second phone call.

Boy, did it create a commotion. A number of savvy traders asked me whether it was a setup because of the high Café circulation. At the time I said perhaps. Based on today’s action I say most certainly, OR this particular STALKER input (from his London silver source, not the gold sources about the Chinese buying, etc.) was just off the wall. Then again, the word to me was they were going to attack in the near future. To be fair maybe they were waiting for a rally such as this to pounce? We shall see.

Regardless, the score for the day is Morgan Stanley 1, Mahendra 1, Stalker silver bullion dealer source 0.

Word to me this morning from a savvy bullion dealer is the hedge funds are all over silver and plan to take it to $8. There are a number of people in our camp who believe silver is going to lead gold on the way up because its fundamentals are so much stronger. One thing for sure…if my information is correct that the Chinese have tied up 75% of this year’s silver production, the price must go bonkers. No way around it. Mahendra called today. He is as bullish on silver as ever.

The silver open interest fell 1936 contracts to 93,408.

The gold open interest fell 1862 contracts to 253,548.

Neither gold or silver left a gap to fill below - a nice technical plus.

How about that copper price! It won’t go down with March finishing the day at $142.50, up 3.7 cents. Oil took off to close more than $1 higher at $47.10. The CRT rocketed up 4.41 to 285.27. So much for the deflation trade. Bonds were clocked for a point and ¼.

The dollar fell .50 to 84.57 and the euro rose .80 to 128.70.

The John Brimelow Report

A valiant Australian goes Bullish!

Thursday, February 10, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.54, PM $$8.46, with world gold at $414.20 and $413.50. Very ample for legal imports. There are distinctly more references in the wire services to Indian demand influencing the gold market. Of course, with the Chinese New Year, Indian activity this week is possibly more distinct than usual in Far Eastern markets.

In any case, gold rallied gently in the early Asian day. TOCOM does not deserve any credit. Volume did jump 36% to a still small 14,255 Comex equivalent with world gold going out 75c above the NY close and the active contract 10 yen higher, But open interest slipped the equivalent of 648 Comex lots, to equal 108,829 Comex. Japan is closed tomorrow. (NY yesterday traded 41,438 lots. Open interest declined 1,828 contracts to 253,598.)

As UBS puts it "Gold posted a near-repeat performance in US trading on Wednesday, initially trading lower to get to a low of $410.50 offered, half a dollar below the previous day’s low, but then short-covering…sawgold move up three dollars to reach a new high and the metal settled near this level"

Standard London’s account of the recovery is "excellent support from the physical sector caught the dealer market short sparking a bounce back to $413.00 by the close"

The extent to which anyone - dealers, Comex locals, funds -actually is short is now of considerable interest. By holding the 200 day moving average gold has opened the way for a dramatic swing in technical sentiment. Indeed ANZ’s Currency Strategist Craig Ferguson valiantly jumped out of the trench this morning (in Australia!):

Buy Gold for rally to at least $430 – AUD to follow suit

"As the headline suggests, we believe the sharp 2 month long decline in Gold prices appears to be coming to an end… This is now the lowest level of net spec non commercial longs since April 04 when Gold was at $370, and a similar level to the April 03 low at $322. In addition, 1 mth risk reversals are now sitting in favour of puts, a condition that has often correlated with reversals higher in spot over the last 3 years. In addition, daily oscillators are diverging, oversold, and have turned higher, while weekly oscillators are also oversold. The odds of a recovery are therefore high. Gold stocks are giving powerful signals that a strong 30% rally in Gold stocks is not far away. (JB emphasis)

Ferguson’s comment on the option market is particularly notable because a number of observers have pointed to negative signals being detectable in this arena in December.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW went right back up, gaining 86 to 10,749, while the DOG rose 1 to 2053.

US economic news:

08:30 Jobless claims reported 303K
Prior week unrevised at 316K.
* * * * *

08:30 December Trade deficit narrows to $56.4B vs. expected $57B
Prior deficit revised to $59.3B from $60.3B.
* * * * *

14:01 Treasury budget surplus $8.7B in January vs $10.0B consensus
January 2004 budget was ($1.4B).
* * * * *
As we have read for so long now, report after report comes in weaker than expected.

Jesse on the trade deficit:

Yes, they did not just revise November, they went back and revised the entire year 2004.
Again, it is my understanding that they do this customarily in June.
At least this time their stats guy had the decency to put an "R" next to the figures they revised and did not just slip them in.
Ok, so they go back and revise entire years. What are they going to do in March?
Love the disappointed reaction from the dollar. Get the stretchers ready.

-END-

Rhody on leasing:

Good morning Bill:
As you can see from the provided link, silver lease rates are still subsiding. In fact, they are now a half the rate of just three days ago in the near terms. This means much of the leasing pressure on the silver price has been lifted. Gold lease rates are slightly lower in the long terms but continue flat in the near terms. In fact, one year gold lease rates are approaching one month silver lease rates, so soon I will no longer be able to say, "You can lease gold for a whole year for the cost of leasing silver for one month."

The traditional interpretation of falling lease rates is increased liquidity.

There is an abundance of silver available for leasing into the market. This is bearish on the spot price. I can't help but recall that gold lease rates fell starting in 2001 as the gold price finally took off. Could this now be happening in silver? I am sorry that I cannot be more definitive, but the best I can really say is there has been a change in the leasing pattern for silver, and it bears watching, if you will excuse the expression.
Regards, Rhody

And then some more:

'Morning Bill:
I thought something was funny this morning when I saw the dollar spike up and gold and silver both follow along. We now know the dollar spike did not last but gold and silver kept going.

Silver lease rates keep sliding and gold's have begun to spike back up.

Although it does not show in the chart below, if one month gold lease rates did rise by .03%, the new rate should be .12%, not .093%. All four near term rates have risen and that means some major leasing to cap gold today.

Gold will rise against a headwind but silver's rates are still falling! Gold is in lease rate backwardation, while silver's spot price rise may be unencumbered.
Rhody.

What’s this:

Fannie restatement may take a year By Jenny Wiggins in New York

Fannie Mae's estimated $9bn earnings restatement may take a year to complete, the Securities and Exchange Commission (news - web sites)'s chief accountant told policymakers on Wednesday at Congressional hearings held to discuss the recent accounting scandal at the mortgage finance provider.

The SEC last year directed Fannie to restate its earnings for the years 2001 to 2004 after finding that the group did not comply with accounting rules related to its use of derivatives.

Yesterday, Donald Nicolaisen, the SEC's chief accountant, told the House subcomittee on capital markets, insurance and government-sponsored enterprises that it would be "some time" before Fannie restated its results. "We're talking a number of months ... perhaps a year, I hope it's not years," he said, adding that he was unsure of the final amount of the restatement.

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About time:

Newmont opposes gold sale plan

By Leora Moldofsdky, Kevin Morrison, John Reed and Bernard Simon
Published: February 10 2005 02:00 | Last updated: February 10 2005 02:00

Newmont Mining, the world's biggest gold producer, is lobbying US congressmen to block any proposal to sell a portion of International Monetary Fund gold reserves to fund debt relief for some of the world's poorest countries.

Noting that a number of the developing countries' 41 most heavily-indebted nations are gold producers, a company spokesman argued that "the sale of IMF gold would impose a hardship on the very nations that they're trying to help".

Gold fell to a four-month low yesterday of $410.20 a troy ounce, and has dropped $10 since IMF sales were first mooted at the weekend.

Newmont, based in Denver, Colorado, also pointed to potential job losses in the western US, where most of the country's gold mines are located.

Jim Saxton, a Republican member of the House of Representatives, an outspoken critic of the IMF, suggested in a statement that the organisation should use other means to fund Third World debt relief: "IMF gold sales would amount to hidden contributions of gold profits legitimately belonging to IMF donor countries and their taxpayers."

Apart from political concerns, the US government, the world's biggest holder of gold, is sceptical about the idea because of the possible effect of sales on its holdings.

Unlike European countries, which have been selling down their reserves, the US remains attached to its gold reserves and torpedoed an earlier plan for IMF gold sales in 1999.

Mixed sentiment in Africa reflected the fact that the continent is both a producer of gold and potential beneficiary of the IMF debt relief the proposed gold sales would finance.

Trevor Manuel, South African finance minister, who was in London on the margins of Saturday's G7 meeting, said the world's largest gold producer would not necessarily block the sales, as long as they were well managed. But yesterday, Phum-zile Mlambo-Ngcuka, South Africa's minerals and energy minister, asked by Reuters for an opinion of Mr Manuel's cautious support, said: "I don't know about that, I am not in favour of that."

Earlier, she told a mining conference: "We are looking at the latest intentions of the IMF regarding gold sales, and we are looking at ways of avoiding it becoming a problem for gold producers."

The G7 asked the IMF to report in April to its shareholders on the possible sale, among other options, of part of its store of 3,217 tonnes of gold which it values at about $8.5bn - about a fifth of its market value.

Not all producers are against the idea. Owen Hegarty, managing director of Oxiana, an Australian gold and copper producer, said an IMF gold revaluation "wouldn't worry us at all. It isn't a market transaction and it would give the IMF a stronger balance sheet and enable it to lend more to developing countries".

He added: "While there has been a bit of a market reaction to the plan in recent days, we think it is a temporary aberration. The price of gold will continue to reflect the US dollar and other fundamentals and will soon correct to previous levels." Reporting by Bernard Simon in Vancouver, Leora Moldofsky in Sydney, John Reed in Cape Town