Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Schwabenpfeil , ich kann dich verstehen.

News von Paul van Eden :

Central to the thesis that the gold price will continue to rise on the back of a falling US dollar, is the premise that China will forego its policy of supporting the dollar in favor of letting its own currency, the renminbi, appreciate. Both China and Japan are accumulating massive amounts of dollars as a result of their trade surpluses with the United States. But instead of selling those trade dollars into the foreign exchange markets, they, and other countries, are hoarding the dollars and investing them in US Treasury securities. As a result the US dollar is currently trading at a much higher exchange rate than it should versus the renminbi, the yen, other Southeast Asian currencies and, in fact, most currencies.

Many people have argued that China will not allow the renminbi to appreciate against the dollar because it needs US consumption to drive its fledgling economy. But pressure is mounting from Europe, the United States, the World Bank and the IMF for China to let its currency appreciate.

The contention is that Chinese exports have an unfair advantage in the world because the renminbi is undervalued in foreign exchange markets. The undervaluation is a direct result of China's dollar-hoarding policy, since it keeps the trade dollars that China receives every day off the market.

Support is growing in the US Senate for taking tariff action against China. The US trade deficit with China totaled $29.12 billion for only January and February of this year. That is a fifty percent increase from last year. The US trade deficit with China is now the largest of any country and almost double the size of the trade deficit with Japan, which is second.

The appointment of a new US trade representative is being blocked until Senate leaders vote on anti-subsidy laws against non-market economies such as China. In addition, a wide coalition of senators is backing legislation to impose a 27.5% tariff on all Chinese products entering the US if Beijing does not agree to raise the value of its currency.

If China does not allow its currency to appreciate against the dollar, and if the US goes ahead and implements the tariffs, all Chinese goods will become 27.5% more expensive for US consumers. On the other hand, if China allows its currency to appreciate, let's say by the same amount, 27.5%, then its goods would be no more expensive to US consumers than if tariffs were imposed. However, the cost of all China's imports would fall by 21.6% if it allowed its currency to appreciate by 27.5%. So what do you think China is more likely to do? Give the US government a revenue stream equal to 27.5% of the value of all Chinese imports to the US, or reduce the cost of its own imports by 21.6%?

The Chinese have always struck me as intelligent and practical. I suspect that China is going to let its currency appreciate. This not only means that the US dollar is going to fall, it also implies that US interest rates are going to rise because if the Chinese (and Japanese) no longer have to keep their trade dollars off the market to prevent the US dollar from falling they will also not need to buy as many US Treasuries as they have in the past.

It's all starting to come together. The next big upward move in the gold price will occur when China and Japan allow their currencies to appreciate and the dollar to fall. I have no idea whether it will be this year, or next, but I do believe the current decline in gold and gold related equities represents an opportunity.

I'll be speaking at next month's investment conference in New York. Visit my website http://www.paulvaneeden.com for details.

Paul van Eeden

Thursday, April 14, 2005, 9:54:00 PM EST

Gold and Dollar Market Summary
Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGA:

The US dollar rallied sharply today but not for any of the reasons given by market commentators. What made it rise was yesterday’s sharp drop in the equity markets followed by the natural and proper action taken by “international investors.”

That action is the sale of US equities and the simultaneous buying of 91 day US Treasury bills. This has been going on since the Dow and NASDAQ topped. It has been a major demand-positive factor for the US dollar.

The firmness in the short term instruments has mistakenly been taken as an indicator of a positive flow of international purchases of US Treasury instruments therefore being positive for the TIC report.

Here is the Bottom Line about which there is no question:

After today’s equity markets closed, it was announced that IBM failed to meet its earning forecast. This is not an isolated event and is showing up in other major companies and industries. Microsoft didn’t help things either. Now everyone is waiting for the GE report.
The disappointment over earnings in the general equities markets will force the highly political US Federal Reserve to fall further behind the inflation curve as they adjust the timing of future increases in the Discount Rate.
You can see now that even a slight roll over in economic activity as measured by various indices is having a dynamic and negative effect on corporate earnings. Today’s post close negative earnings reports and warnings are the product of this roll over phenomenon.
Today, the equity market had its first triple digit back-to-back losing trading day in eight months. There is now a significant drop in tax receipts due to the modest fall-off in business activity. This will produce a dynamic negative impact on the spin prediction of much higher tax receipts contained in estimates of a reduced US Federal Budget Deficit. Lower tax receipts will produce a much higher Federal Budget Deficit.
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve has pointed out correctly that economic decisions have a great deal to do with perceptions. The greatest perception-producing machine is the US equity market. Assuming that the action of the past two weeks is a precursor of the next few months, the domino affect of falling equity markets produce business retrenchment which will see tax receipts plummet.
The demand for dollars created by a strong equity market is an important force acting with respect to the inflow of US dollars from international investors. As such, a weak equity market accelerates the exit out of the US dollar and therefore increases the supply of US dollars in the international market. The result of increased supply is lower prices for the US dollar. Therefore, the Fed will be quite sensitive with respect to the Discount Rate.
As the US Budget Deficit balloons on the upside, the US dollar will decline significantly because the hoped for fundamental improvements are dashed. It was the prediction of a lower US Federal Budget Deficit that caused the beginning of the short covering dollar rally. When this axiomatic truth percolates through the “madness of the crowd” look for the dollar to follow the securities market and fall out of bed. Going up in a bear market is a hard climb but down is like stepping into an elevator shaft.
The impact of a major economic prediction failing is akin to throwing a bucket of ice on your daughter’s suitor as he arrives to pick her up for a date. It is a killer of intentions - in this case, the catalyst that started the dollar short covering rally.
The dollar, IMO, will decline below USDX .8000 which inherently means a new high for gold. Federal debt securities will decline sharply as time goes by because they are the primary dollar-denominated item held by the central banks of the world.

The dollar gained this now dubious position because of the hard sell by the World Bank and IMF which presented it as the Universal Reserve currency. That definition has fallen off the dollar. This short covering rally will be used to exit major positions in US Federal Securities by short selling the dollar as a hedge against the bonds. This is the mechanism that will eventually end the short covering dollar rally.

Gold will rise sharply due to its relationship with a defunct dollar. So the future is deflation in terms of debt, inflation in terms of liquidity and rising prices for good and services. This is exactly the stuff that generational bull markets are made of.

Please read :

http://www.goldseiten.de/conte…/artikel.php?storyid=1018

Manipulierter Markt

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Die Schere zwischen Armut und Reichtum klafft immer weiter auseinander. Das führt zu einem wachsenden sozialen Konfliktherd. Die Menschheit, vor allem die besitzenden Klasse, ist inzwischen außer Rand und Band. 90% des Weltkapitals befindet sich in den Händen der Reichen, und das sind nur 5% der Weltbevölkerung. Ein weiterer Indikator, der auf den Zerfall des Kapitals hinweist, ist die rasch ansteigende Inflation. Sie ist weiter gediehen als man es uns von Staats wegen glauben macht. Noch wird sie versteckt. Der viel zitierte Warenkorb ist ein wahres Lügensammelsurium. Wichtige Güter des Lebens, die im Preis stark gestiegen sind, befinden sich außerhalb des fiktiven Korbs oder sie werden durch statistische Tricks günstiger ausgewiesen. Über die Trickserei hinaus hat sich ein amoralisches Verhalten wie eine Seuche ausgeweitet. Ähnlich könnten die letzten Tage des dekadenten Roms ausgesehen haben. Weltweit ist die Korruption bis in die obersten Firmenetagen, in Parteien und Ämtern wie eine harmlose Selbstverständlichkeit zu Gast. Unglaubliche Betrugsmanöver riesigen Ausmaßes waren und sind die Markenzeichen gewisser renommierter Firmen. Scharenweise werden nach wie vor die Aktionäre über den Tisch gezogen. So habe ich die Befürchtung, dass sich ein Skandal bei der ehemaligen südafrikanischen Goldmine Durban 2005 anbahnen könnte wie damals bei der Sunshine Mining.

Do Security Concerns Influence Asian Central Bank Holdings?

By Keith W. Rabin and Scott B. MacDonald

International currency markets remain on edge, worried about the future trajectory of the U.S. dollar and its impact on other major currencies and economies. This concern is compounded by apprehension over what is on the minds of Asian central bankers, who collectively held a combined $2.3 trillion in U.S. dollar reserves at the end of last year.

Announcements by the Bank of Korea and Japanese Prime Minister earlier this year conveying their intention to diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar rang alarm bells in world financial markets. In recent weeks, however, this anxiety has declined, as the US$ has begun to strengthen, and Treasury Department data reveals that foreign investors bought $91.5 billion in Treasury notes, corporate bonds, stocks and other financial assets in January – nearly a 50% increase over December.

The concern over dollar holdings in any case should be surprising given that a move toward greater central bank currency diversification is inevitable over the longer term. Brazil, Russia, India, China and other emerging economies are expected to grow far more rapidly than the United States in coming decades. Therefore, the U.S. share of global GDP, and the relative importance of its economy, should decline over time. Furthermore, Japan, another mature economy, is likely to show less dependence and correlation to the U.S. moving forward. This is due to increasing demand from Asia as well as ongoing restructuring and the gradual awakening of the Japanese consumer.

While the possibility of a systemic shock cannot be dismissed, it is unlikely this will be due to an abrupt decline in Asian U.S. dollar holdings. The shift toward diversification is not likely to be as fast or traumatic as many forecasters indicate. For one thing, at the present time, it is unclear whether any alternative currencies have sufficient depth and liquidity to absorb inflows of such magnitude. In addition, any rapid move by Asian central banks to diversify from the US$ would serve only to strengthen their respective currencies against the dollar. Their export competitiveness would decline as a result – as would the large amounts of U.S. Treasury Agency securities already in their portfolios – when translated back into the domestic currency in question. As of last December, Japan alone held almost $712, China $194 and Korea $69 billion.

Even if one were to believe that Asian economies could withstand the significant financial ramifications of an overt move away from the U.S. dollar, it is doubtful they would move to do so. The alliances that bind the U.S. to playing a vital security role in that part of the world are becoming increasingly important – at a time when we are seeing increasing signs that the delicate balance that has kept the region relatively tranquil for several decades is starting to become undone. Chinese submarines off the coast of, territorial disputes with, and violent demonstrations against, a Japan more prone to asserting its military power, nuclear tensions with North Korea, several border disputes and saber rattling over Taiwan, are just a few of many issues rising in prominence.

This is not to suggest the existance of a strong quid pro quo, in which U.S. and Asian leaders are closely coordinating and linking economic with security considerations. Rather, as CLSA analyst Christopher Wood highlighted in a recent report, a recognition is developing that “there is clearly a ‘rearmament dynamic’ at work in the East Asian region in the sense that the post-1945 status quo is over”.

As China moves to augment, upgrade and flaunt its military capabilities and to achieve more economic and political stature, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, which depend on the U.S. as guarantors of their security, are unlikely to take any steps that might endanger Washington’s ability to sustain its treaty and alliance commitments. Nations such as Thailand and others in Southeast Asia, who also hold significant amounts of U.S. Treasury securities, also benefit from the ability of the U.S. to serve as a counterweight as China continues to transition into an increasingly powerful world leader.

One might also imagine China reluctant to see an economically weakened U.S., pressured to cut back on its security commitments. Such a move would create a number of extremely complicated diplomatic issues and dramatically raise anxiety levels throughout the region. That would make it far more difficult for China to maintain its focus on domestic development, as well as efforts to position itself as the focal point of an integrated, and more financially independent, Asia. To cite one example, a reduced U.S. security presence would increase pressure on China to lead in resolving an already intractable situation in North Korea, a responsibility it has been reluctant to assume.

The economic reasons why Asian central banks will refrain from abandoning the U.S. dollar will diminish over time as regional growth and integration accelerates. That will enhance domestic consumption and demand, as well as a greater emphasis on the services sector. This will serve to alleviate Asia’s traditional dependence on exports and create an increasingly vibrant and attractive new driver of global growth and development.

Economic progress in Asia, however, bolstered by regional integration, remains dependent on the shared sense of national security and confidence necessary to allow sufficient cooperation. Given the diverse range of interests, as well as the numerous wars, skirmishes, and power struggles that have held back development in Asia to the present time, the importance of a U.S. security presence should not be minimized.

The reluctance of Asian economies to abandon the U.S. dollar might be seen as a key reason why the U.S. bond market has been maintaining its strength, and the U.S. dollar -- which has been showing renewed strength in recent weeks -- may not be ready to reverse itself in a precipitous slide – despite renewed signs of weakness and the existence of numerous troubling indicators.

It should be emphasized, however, that the willingness of Asian central banks to maintain their U.S. dollar holdings does not offer a solution to growing fiscal imbalances in the U.S. and related distortions in the global financial system. At best, it only delays -- the risk of systemic shocks, as well as implementation of the structural adjustments necessary to resolve this situation.

Consequently, U.S. and Asian interests remain in lockstep and the status quo is likely to sustain itself for the foreseeable future. This is something nervous currency traders need to remember. At the same time, questionings of this reasoning promise periodic upsets and no end to market volatility. In addition, the potential for an abrupt end to this game of musical chairs should not be discounted. This is true regardless of whether Asian Central Banks maintain their ongoing love affair with the U.S. dollar.

Keith W. Rabin is President of KWR International

Scott B. MacDonald is Senior Managing Director at Aladdin Capital and a Senior Consultant at KWR International

Es sieht so aus das der HUI im moment eine Bluttransfusion bekommt.
Hanibal hat gestern zu viel genommen.
Auch keine vorattacke vor opening ist ein gutes zeichen.
Der Dow hat probleme und CNBC zeigt mir gleich welche aktien der sogenannte Warren Buffet von Arabien, nicht verkaufen wird.
Danach Rick Sentelli, Sylvia Wadwa, und die anderen muppets.
Es ist schon komisch wie so viele leute sich von medien und deren zahlen beeinflussen bzw. gelenkt werden.

Cheers

XEX

Silver Shares Still Offer an Excellent Buying Opportunity

SILVER: FOLLOW-UP NO 14 /April 15, 2005

Silverinstitute

On August 9, 2004,

with the silver price at $ 6.52, we wrote: “We believe that the support around $ 6 has well proven its capacity to absorb any strong selling pressure and we believe therefore that the time to buy silver and silver shares is still propitious.” We added, “The prices of silver shares will advance very quickly, once confidence returns to the market.”

So let’s now examine what has happened since and where we stand at present and what the future may bring:

The long-term picture of the silver price
[Blockierte Grafik: http://goldseek.com/news/Zihlm…/images/2005/4-15zi/1.PNG]

What we notice is that the silver price, after having moved higher during the month of August, suddenly came down at the beginning of September. Nevertheless, selling dried up when the price fell below $ 6.25, fulfilling our prediction that the $ 6 level would be able to absorb any selling pressure. From September to the beginning of December, the silver price moved up sharply to again reach the $ 8 level, which had already been tested in April of the same year.

The silver price then fell back into its long-term up-trend channel where at present a new support-level between $ 6.50 and $ 7 should be able to absorb any further selling.

Considering the strong and intact up-trend, it appears that the price of silver is preparing itself for the next attack on the $ 8-resistance level which we believe could well give way this time.

The medium-term picture of the silver price

[Blockierte Grafik: http://goldseek.com/news/Zihlm…/images/2005/4-15zi/2.PNG]

The medium-term picture also shows that the price of silver remains in a solid up-trend in which excesses are nevertheless quickly corrected. While the astute trader may try to benefit from the high volatility of the silver price, those who believe that silver will go substantially higher over the long-term can simply buy whenever the silver price falls below the 200-days Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The short-term picture of the silver price

[Blockierte Grafik: http://goldseek.com/news/Zihlm…/images/2005/4-15zi/3.PNG]

We expect the silver price to hold above $ 6.75 and to push towards the $ 8-level and possibly higher, although it will be occurring at an unspecified time in the future.

Our favourite silver shares

[Blockierte Grafik: http://goldseek.com/news/Zihlm…/images/2005/4-15zi/4.PNG]

(%-value changes reflect the performance since our first recommendation.)

Fundamental Considerations: THE RISING SILVER DEMAND

Supply versus Demand

[Blockierte Grafik: http://goldseek.com/news/Zihlm…/images/2005/4-15zi/5.PNG]

In 2003, silver demand exceeded supply by approximately 34 million ounces. This is the fifteenth consecutive year of supply deficit. Over this period, nearly 1.8 billion ounces of silver have been drawn from reported and undisclosed inventories to make up the shortfall.

This consistent supply deficit is a characteristic unique to silver and one that reinforces our own belief in higher silver prices over time. Although silver consumption and this deficit vary from year to year reflecting global economic conditions, the important point is that the market was again in deficit in 2003 and is projected to be in deficit in 2004. The data incorporated in the following discussion on silver is based on research from the CPM Group of New York. (New estimates for 2005 are not available yet.)

Demand - Factors and Trends

Silver demand in the first part of 2003 saw a reduction in industrial use worldwide. This factor, along with renewed interest in physical silver, shifted in a positive way in the second half of 2003 that continues into 2004.

Total demand declined 3.0% in 2003 to 761 million ounces of silver, with the decline more heavily weighted in the first half of the year. Photographic demand declined marginally to 249 million ounces in 2003, and jewelry and silverware consumed 261 million ounces. This is a combined reduction of 17 million ounces from 2002.

In early 2003, SARS in China significantly reduced travel in the country and related consumer photography. Digital cameras have made some inroads but increasing photographic use in x-rays and disposable cameras, and further growth in China and Asia, will continue to mute the digital influence. Photographic demand is expected to remain constant in 2004.

Demand remained strong for jewelry and silverware in Italy, Japan and the United States. Electronic demand last year was 104 million ounces, down slightly from the previous year due to the downturn in the electronics industries, specifically computers and cellular phones. Demand is reported to be sharply higher in the first quarter of 2004.

Other uses consumed about 140 million ounces as solders, bearings, chemical catalysts used to make the basic feedstock for polyethylene, mirrors, medicines, dental alloys, and other applications. Another 10 million ounces of silver were used in the making of silver bullion coins, which investors buy. These are counted separately from fabricated products, since they are 'bullion-like' and purchased for their silver content.

In the past, growing physical demand was keyed to improving industrial demand. Among potentially significant newer industrial applications, silver is now being used in superconductors in which silver coats the core wire. This silver sheath increases the efficiency of the superconductive wire, reducing the loss of power during transmission. There is evidence that use of superconductive wire grew more rapidly than expected in 2003 and further growth is anticipated in 2004. Use of silver in medical and health niche applications, such as band-aids, products to promote healing from skin burns, water purifiers and surgical instruments, continues to grow.

Supply

Overall supply in 2003 totalled approximately 727 million ounces. The largest component of supply was mine production at some 480 million ounces -- down 3.2% from the 496 million ounces mined in 2002. Lower mine supply reflected reduced production from copper, lead, zinc and gold mines, which accounts for about 75% of mine supply of silver. With higher commodity prices in late 2003, mine production is expected to return to 2002 levels of 494 million ounces.

Secondary supply, which is largely scrap, comes from photographic recycling, silver coinage, and jewellery. These supplies totalled about 217 million ounces in 2003, up almost 10% from 2002. The 34 million-ounce deficit between supply and demand in 2003 was made up by silver sold from undisclosed inventories.

Overall Trends

Looking at 2004, CPM Group of New York, which undertakes research on silver and is supported in part by Silver Standard, is expecting that demand for silver will increase by 2.8% to 780 million ounces. The total supply of silver is expected to grow 1.2% to 736 million ounces, resulting in a deficit estimated at 46 million ounces. The assumptions behind these numbers are based on some tangible evidence: industrial expansion in the United States, Japan and China.

At the same time, according to CPM Group, holders of undisclosed silver inventories appear to be reducing sales that balanced supply and demand in recent years. This is partly due to a change in investor psychology. Investors are anticipating inflation and acquiring holdings of silver for investment purposes. Volumes for silver equities, and options and futures contracts are now noticeably higher than 2002.

CPM Group noted two interesting trends in the silver and paper markets since 2001. First, the volumes of silver futures and options being traded on organized exchanges have risen by 50%. Second, the volume of silver traded through the London-centred international bullion banking market has fallen by 70%. Futures and options volumes were as low as 15.9 billion ounces in 2001, but increased to 23.9 billion ounces in 2003. Meanwhile, the amount of silver cleared across London bullion clearing banks fell from 74.6 billion ounces in 1997 to 21.9 billion ounces in 2002, before recovering to 23.5 billion ounces in 2003.

CPM Group commented that "the drop in London bullion clearing volumes reflects the decline in proprietary trading in silver by banks and brokerage companies over the past six years, while the rise in futures and options activities reflects the increase in investor interest in silver, both on the part of large institutional investors and individual investors. Similarly contrasting trends have been seen in the volumes of gold cleared through London banks and gold futures and options trading, but the contrast in gold is not as stark as it is in silver." Volumes in both bullion and paper markets have increased in excess of 40% on an annualized basis so far in 2004 compared to 2003.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://goldseek.com/news/Zihlm…/images/2005/4-15zi/6.PNG]

The following recommendations were valid at the time of writing, viz. at

and may no longer be valid at the time of reading.

Our recommendations for SILVER: USD 6.97/ounce






Long-term (several months)


BUY






Medium-term (several weeks)


BUY

The assets of THE TIMELESS PRECIOUS METAL FUND, Malta (EU), are invested in silver shares up to 30%.

Peter Zihlmann

http://www.pzim.com

http://www.timeless-gold.com

Contact: investment@pzim.com

*****************************************************************************************************************************

Disclaimer: P. ZIHLMANN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AG does not accept any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever, that may directly or indirectly result from any advice, opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in the trading recommendations or in any accompanying chart analyses, whether communicated by word, or message, typed or spoken by any of its employees.

****************************************************************************************************************************

-- Posted 15 April, 2005

Seit 12am. NY time ist nun wieder das PPT beschaeftigt und haut nach der mittagspause wieder auf den HUI mit den selben tricks wie gestern.

Die haben heute laenger geschlafen weil sie gestern ueberstunden machten.

Darum fehlten sie am morgen, kann man ja verstehen.

Sie wollen den Goldbugs das wochenende vermiesen.

Gut, dann halt naechste Woche, nach dem IMF meeting wo eh nichts rauskommt.

Have a nice weekend

XEX

Ulfur,
also der Chart hat mir sehr geholfen in Bezug auf Astro etc, aber wurscht.
Danke!

4 Fragen:
Was bedeuten die gelb unterlegten Monatszahlen oben?
Die unteren sind die Richtigen?
Kann man sich die auch für Einzeljahre herstellen?
Gibt´s dazu einen Link?

Grüße
Tschonko

Friday, April 15, 2005, 12:05:00 PM EST

Master of the Universe

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGA:

The one Federal Reserve Chairman who truly has acted as Master of the Economic Universe has Spoken.

In 1980 when this Gold Bull (as the Wall Street Journal called me at the time) took off his horns, Mr. Bleiberg, then editor of Barrons, wrote a piece calling me a pinhead because I characterized Chairman Volcker as a “class act.”

At a dinner two years later when my former partner was Superintendent of Banks for the State of New York, Chairman Volcker said, “Yes, you and Sinclair. I guess I really got the gold guys.” Our answer was quite simple. “Sorry, Mr. Chairman, but you did not get these gold guys. In fact, you did us a good turn because when we saw you coming we exited gold.”

Now Mr. Volcker is back repeating to you what I told you Mr. V had said somewhat privately many months ago. However, this time he has added an EXTREMELY important caveat.

I listened hard to Chairman Volcker without emotion and paid strict attention to every word in late 1979. I did not like in the least what I heard. However, I did not argue with it because it had been said and he had the power.

Gold soon fulfilled its price objective in a practical sense and fundamentally at $887.50. Gold had balanced the International Balance Sheet of the USA. That day and through the entire night Vincent and I sold all the gold we and our firm owned. Next morning gold opened down $150.

Will you listen to Chairman Volcker now or to the top callers, the star gazers and the agents of COT? Is financial TV your only access to knowledge?

What Chairman Volcker added when speaking of the need to put in place those POLICIES that have a historical record of turning the triple deficits towards surplus was a CRITCALLY IMPORTANT caveat.

“I don't know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later. But as things stand, it is more likely than not that it will be financial crises rather than policy foresight that will force the change.”

The Chairman has spoken again saying to you EXACTLY the same words that form the foundation of my present position on the US dollar and Gold.

Sadly, I do not expect you, the gold advisors or many others to pay heed to the words of the best mind in finance.

Sadly, I expect you to continue throwing your gold insurance and good gold shares out.

Sadly, I expect the majority of you to be coned into being long the dollar and even short the Swiss and Canadian dollar.

I know those who know the future and they are not chartists or sooth sayers who might get it right once in a row.

Chairman Volcker is the intellectual powerhouse in finance.

Chairman Volcker has spoken but this time his invitation is to re-enter gold while shorting the dollar by owning other currencies of which my choice is the Swiss and Canadian.

This is the clear implication of this world if you have the ability to listen carefully, unemotionally and act accordingly regardless of whether the establishment considers you a pinhead.

Please, read the piece below, listen, drop your emotions and grasp your intellect.

washingtonpost.com
An Economy On Thin Ice
By Paul A. Volcker
Sunday, April 10, 2005; Page B07

The U.S. expansion appears on track. Europe and Japan may lack exuberance, but their economies are at least on the plus side. China and India - with close to 40 percent of the world's population -- have sustained growth at rates that not so long ago would have seemed, if not impossible, highly improbable.

Yet, under the placid surface, there are disturbing trends: huge imbalances, disequilibria, risks - call them what you will. Altogether the circumstances seem to me as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot. What really concerns me is that there seems to be so little willingness or capacity to do much about it.

We sit here absorbed in a debate about how to maintain Social Security - and, more important, Medicare - when the baby boomers retire. But right now, those same boomers are spending like there's no tomorrow. If we can believe the numbers, personal savings in the United States have practically disappeared.

To be sure, businesses have begun to rebuild their financial reserves. But in the space of a few years, the federal deficit has come to offset that source of national savings.

We are buying a lot of housing at rising prices, but home ownership has become a vehicle for borrowing as much as a source of financial security. As a nation we are consuming and investing about 6 percent more than we are producing.

What holds it all together is a massive and growing flow of capital from abroad, running to more than $2 billion every working day, and growing. There is no sense of strain. As a nation we don't consciously borrow or beg. We aren't even offering attractive interest rates, nor do we have to offer our creditors protection against the risk of a declining dollar.

Most of the time, it has been private capital that has freely flowed into our markets from abroad -- where better to invest in an uncertain world, the refrain has gone, than the United States?

More recently, we've become more dependent on foreign central banks, particularly in China and Japan and elsewhere in East Asia.

It's all quite comfortable for us. We fill our shops and our garages with goods from abroad, and the competition has been a powerful restraint on our internal prices. It's surely helped keep interest rates exceptionally low despite our vanishing savings and rapid growth.

And it's comfortable for our trading partners and for those supplying the capital. Some, such as China, depend heavily on our expanding domestic markets. And for the most part, the central banks of the emerging world have been willing to hold more and more dollars, which are, after all, the closest thing the world has to a truly international currency.

The difficulty is that this seemingly comfortable pattern can't go on indefinitely. I don't know of any country that has managed to consume and invest 6 percent more than it produces for long. The United States is absorbing about 80 percent of the net flow of international capital. And at some point, both central banks and private institutions will have their fill of dollars.

I don't know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later. But as things stand, it is more likely than not that it will be financial crises rather than policy foresight that will force the change.

It's not that it is so difficult intellectually to set out a scenario for a "soft landing" and sustained growth. There is a wide area of agreement among establishment economists about a textbook pretty picture: China and other continental Asian economies should permit and encourage a substantial exchange rate appreciation against the dollar. Japan and Europe should work promptly and aggressively toward domestic stimulus and deal more effectively and speedily with structural obstacles to growth. And the United States, by some combination of measures, should forcibly increase its rate of internal saving, thereby reducing its import demand.

But can we, with any degree of confidence today, look forward to any one of these policies being put in place any time soon, much less a combination of all?

The answer is no. So I think we are skating on increasingly thin ice. On the present trajectory, the deficits and imbalances will increase. At some point, the sense of confidence in capital markets that today so benignly supports the flow of funds to the United States and the growing world economy could fade. Then some event, or combination of events, could come along to disturb markets, with damaging volatility in both exchange markets and interest rates. We had a taste of that in the stagflation of the 1970s -- a volatile and depressed dollar, inflationary pressures, a sudden increase in interest rates and a couple of big recessions.

The clear lesson I draw is that there is a high premium on doing what we can to minimize the risks and to ensure that there is time for orderly adjustment. I'm not suggesting anything unorthodox or arcane. What is required is a willingness to act now -- and next year, and the following year, and to act even when, on the surface, everything seems so placid and favorable.

What I am talking about really boils down to the oldest lesson of economic policy: a strong sense of monetary and fiscal discipline. This is not a time for ideological intransigence and partisan posturing on the budget at the expense of the deficit rising still higher. Surely we would all be better off if other countries did their part. But their failures must not deflect us from what we can do, in our own self-interest.

A wise observer of the economic scene once commented that "what can be left to later, usually is -- and then, alas, it's too late." I don't want to let that stand as the epitaph of what has been an unparalleled period of success for the American economy and of enormous potential for the world at large.

The writer was chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. This article is adapted from a speech in February at an economic summit sponsored by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

@ eldo

was kostet benzin in SA?

Peter

5 Rand, ca 0.64 Euro, Durchschnittsverdienst ca. 4000 Rand netto bei gelernten fachkraeften. Putzfrau 3-4 liter Benzin pro stunde

kannste mir mal 500 liter schicken? per express

Gold Futures CoT

Adam Hamilton
Archives
April 16, 2005

With gold, silver, and gold stocks all in typical technical bottoming patterns, sentiment among precious-metals investors is understandably rotten. When prices feel low people feel bad. It is always this way near major interim bottoms.

While I receive countless e-mails laden with despair during times like these, one this week did a fantastic job of summing up how so many investors are feeling today. This gentleman, talking about gold stocks in particular, wrote to me

"I am so tired of losing money on these stocks, it seems like we've been in a bear market for the last 2 years with occasional rallies that seem to get weaker. How can guys like you figure that these stocks are going to someday do well? When do I just give up? I'm at the end of my rope with everything related to Wall Street. It makes me sick and seems impossible to make money. I'm so frustrated I don't know what else to say."

It is not difficult to detect emotional extremes in others, but it is hard to remain detached enough to see into our own hearts. One of the greatest struggles in any speculator's journey is the constant war to overcome one's own destructive emotions of greed and fear, euphoria and despair.

In my own evolution as a speculator, the most effective way I have found to keep myself on an even keel and strive for total emotional neutrality is to focus on the hard data. While our personal feelings about the markets are capricious and often misleading, the underlying data is absolute. It provides a solid intellectual reference point at which to anchor to weather out the storms of sentiment that periodically batter the markets.

http://www.321gold.com/editori…ilton/hamilton041605.html

April 15 – Gold $424.30 up $1.10 – Silver $7 down 4 cents

What Our Planet Knows That Theirs Does Not!

"There will be, in the next generation or so, a pharmacological method of making people love their servitude, and producing dictatorship without tears, so to speak, producing a kind of painless concentration camp for entire societies, so that people will in fact have their liberties taken away from them, but will rather enjoy it, because they will be distracted from any desire to rebel by propaganda or brainwashing, or brainwashing enhanced by pharmacological methods. And this seems to be the final revolution."

Aldous Huxley's lecture to The California Medical School in San Francisco in 1961

What you see happening in the markets, or reported on in MIDAS as far as what The Gold Cartel is doing, is extremely significant IMO, … EXTREMELY. From last evening’s commentary:

"What you see here is The Gold Cartel ripping off the specs and keeping gold in check to prevent the derivatives bomb from going off. The creeps sell as gold approaches $429 and buy back when gold approaches $420 because of the strength in the cash market. The crooks were in there buying today when gold took out $423, as the funds were dumping heavily."…

"The Orwellians are running out of ammo and deceitful tricks. Their huffing and puffing has little force behind it anymore. The Gold Cartel was covering shorts like mad on today's bashing they are running so scared."

The Gold Cartel stopped gold cold at $429 on Wednesday to keep the price in lockdown mode and to make sure gold volatility remained low. However, when they had a chance to bury the price yesterday, they were in there scooping up all the cheap gold they could, as the funds sold. This is the fastest cabal turnaround time from major capping to major buying ever. They used to move like this over a period of months, then many weeks, then a week, now within two days. This tells me they are running SCARED and don’t want to be overly short for too long, for one. Secondly, they have to increasingly compete with cash market buyers. If they don’t cover quickly on breaks, they might not get to take in profits from their orchestrated, anti-trust violating price capping maneuvers.

I suggest to you this telegraphs the game at these price levels is nearing an end. They don’t have the physical gold to keep their fraud going much longer at these prices. They must allow gold to rally to ration their dwindling supply and slow down the physical buying. The bum’s big hope for supply is IMF gold, which will be discussed this weekend at the G-7 meeting. Just the talk of those sales has kept a number of buyers on the sidelines. Should those hopes be dashed for all practical purposes, look for gold to take off and blow through $430. (It ought to anyway; however, we know what we are up against.)

Still, The Gold Cartel is not running for the hills yet. With the euro up .90 to 129.42, the dollar down nearly .50 to 80.49, and the stock market collapsing this afternoon, the cabal took gold from up over $2 to down slightly on the Comex session before it recovered. Talk about absurd? Gold should have rocketed up $5 on those market developments. This is why I cannot insult the mainstream gold world enough on their silence about this blatant market manipulation and hideous fraud.

By the close gold drifted back up when the DOW rallied 50 off its lows. How perverse! Who knows how low gold might have been taken when the stock market dropped like a stone late in the day. Volatility has picked up noticeably in every US financial market except gold. US interest rates, the dollar, the stock market have begun trading like pinball machines. Not gold. It just stays in a tight trading range, where it has been for a month.

The dollar hit the skids today and US interest rates plummeted – and of course the US stock market was battered. Now you know why they jacked up the dollar the past couple of weeks. The Orwellians needed some kind of cushion for what lied ahead and they got it by taking the dollar higher – which made no sense at the time unless you know what GATA knows.

What we have developing here is the perfect storm (as Jim Puplava of http://www.financialsense.com likes to call it) developing day after day. It should send gold to the moon and will as soon as The Gold Cartel blows up. It could happen at any time. I won’t jinx it by saying the volcanic price explosion is imminent.

Here is a real plus. The Comex gold stocks dropped 150,000 ounces (1500 contracts) or the most since June of 2004. This bears watching.

Almost no one out there is short-term bullish. The lack of understanding of what this gold market is really all about is astounding. The mainstream gold world is the biggest bunch of stupids ever assembled. Either that or they are the most disingenuous liars ever to be found in one industry. The gold farce/fraud could not be more blatant. YOU and I are paying the price for this gross negligence. More below.

Silver just goes up and down on this and that. Part of the same disgraceful price manipulation scheme.

I still say gold and silver are going to blow sky high. The sooner the better.

The John Brimelow Report

JB: A call to Warren Buffet?

Friday, April 15, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.36, PM $4.49, with world gold at $422.95 and $423.35. Considering all the Indian reporting cities together, premiums were ample for legal imports. A respectable performance, considering the rupee weakened sharply on foreign liquidation of Indian shares. The Bombay Index was down 3.39%.

Confronted with world gold $4 lower than the previous close, TOCOM managed a very faint sign of interest. Volume rose 35% to the equivalent of 15,198 Comex, and open interest edged up the equivalent of 445 NY lots to equal 91,938 Comex. Mitsubishi’s data implies the public added 193 Comex to their long. The active contract closed down 8 yen and world gold went out 95c below the end in NY. (NY yesterday is said to have traded 68,143 contracts. Open interest fell 2,842 lots to 277,397.)

The Shanghai Gold Exchange was unswayed by President Bush’s call yesterday for a revaluation of the Yuan. Premiums over world gold jumped over $1 to the $4.21 - $4.55 range, which is quite high. Clearly local traders do not expect any change in the exchange rate.

Yesterday, in the words of HSBC

"Gold prices lurched lower…as the rally in the dollar and the weight of long liquidation in other commodities finally took its toll."

The toll was forcibly exacted by quite a large scale fund raid: actual volume was 24% above the estimate, and half of it was apparently done in the first couple of hours.

ScotiaMocatta’s account is

"Selling during European trading hours carried over into the New York session, bringing about fresh buying from physical traders with the lower prices. Gold spent the early part of the day trading between 425.00 and 426.00 with funds on the offer and New York dealers and physical traders on the bid. However, the fund selling finally proved to be too much putting resting stop loss orders into play…."

The UBS version is

"In New York yesterday, gold opened on the highs at $425.70 / 426.10 and attracted heavy speculative selling as the euro and gold equities came under pressure. Support at $424 was broken and the metal traded to a low of $421.75 / 422.25 to test the 200-day moving average."

Significantly, Dealer and short covering as well as the usual physical buying appeared on the lows:

UBS:

"We saw good scale down buying from a combination of short-covering and physical demand and this, together with the bounce in the euro saw gold close around $424/oz,"

ScotiaMocatta:

"The metal fell to the session low of 421.70/422.20 where dealers stepped in on the buy side. Bargain hunting then helped lift the price back near 424.00…"

This suggests that at least some professional traders do not choose to contest the Middle Eastern/Indian demand in the low $420s.

Seeing the stories yesterday of Warren Buffet allegedly cutting his dollar short positions brought back memories of the Phibro/Salomon silver position, suddenly taken on Easter Monday 1994, shocking the market, and then mysteriously liquidated. There was a story (which I believe to be true) that Buffet, then influential at the firm, ordered it sold on the grounds it was attracting hostile attention from Washington. Possibly the AIG/General Re situation is more of a problem than most assume.

JB

Two notes on JB’s always superb input:

The open interest reduction was a result of The Gold Cartel covering and in line with my earlier comments.
Buffett’s firm was Salomon Bros. Jimmy DePiazza of Phibro, a Salomon subsidiary, had the silver market cornered. Salomon was going through a bond scandal because of a huge guru bond trader named Meriwether. The government suggested Phibro dump their silver position or Salomon would have US agents all over their operation and books for years to come. Buffett caved.
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

GOLD

During this week I see metals struggling to fight the
dollar's rise and one can therefore do some day
trading. Sell if gold rises dollar six and buy if it
falls dollar eight. I still do not recommend holding
buying positions in gold for a period of about two
months. It is clear that gold will trade in a range of
dollar twenty one for the next few weeks from Friday's
closing.

This week range will be $428.80 to $415.20.

Concern - The dollar's rise will still be an important
factor for gold and it may take a few more weeks to
break this relation.

SILVER

This week, silver will remain stable but it may be
very volatile on Tuesday and Wednesday with prices
likely to fluctuate on both sides around the range of
fifty cents so trade carefully.

I advise that you only do some day trading. If it
rises more than 18 cents, then one can sell and if it
falls by the same amount one can buy.

One very interesting point will be that - Silver will
disconnect from the gold relationship in the next ten
days. .

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/hamilton010702.html

@ Eldorado

Sieht recht bedrohlich aus

In nur 3 Jahren fast verdoppelt

Gehe nicht davon aus, dass die Aktionäre und Kleinsparer dieser BIG 5 Banken wissen was diese für gefährliche Risiken eingehen.
Wenn eine dieser 5 Banken ihren Verpflichtungen nicht mehr nachkommen kann, bedeutet dies eventuell das ENDE aller dieser BIG 5

The Big 5