Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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Susi

Gold und Dollar haben sich gerade geküsst

Lange, lange ist es her seit .......

Jetzt lässt sich der Dollar fallen, damit Gold aufsteigen kann

herr wirf hirn vom himmel...das küchengeschwader greift an

kann ich ja gleich die umlaufbahn vom merkur und das wachsen von tomatensträuchern auf ein blatt malen und bei einer berührung fang ich an zu jubeln das es ein handelssignal ist

Susi

You can't teach an old dog new tricks !

Danke aber ich habe meine eigenen tools und 10 jahre intuition gesammelt sowie genug charts und programme zum anschauen.
Bis jetzt hat mich meine intuition noch nicht im stich gelassen.
Ich segle seit 10 Jahren auf hoher see !
Da kann mir ein rookie peter silly sagen was er will als schlauchboot skipper am strand.

Gruss

Eldorado

Gold comments:

*As long discussed in this column, gold will make its real move independent of the dollar. The Gold Cartel has used its understandable relationship with, or link, vis-à-vis the dollar as a manipulatory vehicle to con the investment world as to what its price could do. No need to go through that drill again.

Both gold and silver stormed out of the gate this morning and held their gains. Is this $6 Rule something else or what! As soon as gold went up $6 on the day, bells and whistles went off everywhere. It made up $6.60 on the session briefly and that was all she wrote. Gold went sideways for hours until the close.

When gold closed the euro was only .28 higher and the dollar was .13 lower. Later in the day the dollar weakened further to 83.71, down .26 and the euro finished at 130.91, up .56. At one point in the day the euro gold price was up almost as much as gold in dollars – a rare event on a relatively big move.

*Gold is beginning its march to well over $1,000 per ounce because The Gold Cartel is running out of physical gold to keep the price down.

*It should surprise no one that gold was allowed to rise on a day in which interest rates were lower and the stock market was on the rise. This would not have been allowed last week with the US financial system under visible market pressure.

*It also should surprise no one that gold makes a stellar move higher today after the IMF gold sale plan is shot down. The bums are in trouble. At least I think so, which is why I have been pounding the table on this very subject. They are running out of enough physical gold to meet the supply/demand deficit. The Swiss sales have ended which were running around 50 tonnes per month I believe. It should then come as no surprise the ECB sold 47 tonnes last month. Who will it be this month? Maybe NOBODY left to take the place of the Swiss!!!

*It is very constructive to see both gold AND silver bolt up like this at the same time with gold shooting into new high recovery ground.

*It is also constructive technically that gold has no downside gaps to fill. The breakaway gap could come any day now from a technical perspective. It ought to be a significant one which won’t be filled for a long time.

*Gold went sideways for a month and has broken out to the upside. This is a bullish set-up as it now has near-term massive support down to the $430 level to cushion setbacks. Out of the market bulls will buy on any breaks. So will cash buyers. This is WHY we are likely to get a breakaway gap any day now.

*It is very significant for the big picture that gold went up the limit today ($6 Rule) while the dollar was steady until later in the day. This tells me gold is finally making its move for the reasons oft expressed here, those other than what the dollar is up (or down) to. Matter of fact, this has been my rant for a week. All of us like gratification of some sort. This certainly is one of those occasions for moi.

*The way I see today’s upside breakout is that it, without corresponding strength in the foreign currencies, signals the beginning of the end of The Gold Cartel.

As mentioned above a couple of times, it will come as no surprise to MIDAS subscribers that The Gold Cartel is running out of physical gold to continue their scheme at these prices. The only way for them to satisfy existing demand is to have some sticker shock hit the market. This will only occur if the price rallies significantly from these levels. Then maybe the surging buyers in India, etc., might pull back once gold rallies $50 per ounce.

*There is a notion among many savvy gold watchers that the gold shares will lead the way for bullion. MIDAS has never bought into that notion BECAUSE this is a rigged market. The only thing which matters is whether the white collar thugs run out of the means to hold the price down, OR are blown up and no longer able to maintain their massive short positions – – i.e., as the result of a derivatives crisis for example.

*The Café Sentiment indicator works again. As mentioned yesterday, it briefly went to a new low of 1.5.

*Did gold move higher because of inflationary concerns? Doubt it. The bonds soared a ½ point, making new highs for its recovery move. They rose because inflation concerns have supposedly lessened. While methinks this is misplaced thinking, it is the reality of the day. Therefore, you can’t get away with explaining the gold rally for the opposite reason.

*No surprise about gold moving up here. You could barely find a short-term bull anywhere last week. The Gold Cartel did good work lulling the herd to sleep.

*Both the gold and silver charts are very constructive from a technical perspective. Both precious metals are breaking out to the upside after forming solid bases below.

What does all of this mean for gold and silver? First of all, the US is on this track of a weaker currency, which is good for gold and silver. The demand for oil is increasing across the world, and the US $ prices received for that oil is increasing. The dollar, being the supposed 'reserve currency', is perceived to be in a vulnerable position. The exporter is worried, maybe the price of oil in dollars will drop, and the lost purchasing power will become a reality. In a risk assessment, it is decided that fiat currencies are inherently worthless, so the decision is made to store some of the exporting receipts in gold and silver. Taking this a step further, the same can be said for any country exporting to the US and receiving devaluing dollars in return for their items sold.

That the US is devaluing the dollar is a given. Your net income received, after taxes are taken out, is able to purchase less and less of the items needed on a day by day basis. Your savings are depreciating, as each dollar held in your possession is decreasing in value the longer you hold onto it. Inflation in prices paid for items of need, is nothing less than yet another tax on your income. $1000 in savings now, is losing value continuously. The bank statement may say $1000, or even $1020 for the meager interest earned, but your purchasing power is decreasing steadily. You need to protect your hard earned resources to the best of your ability. Gold and Silver can and will do well in times of instability, or in times of inflationary pressures.

Buying gold and silver is not just for speculation of higher prices. It is the wise move!

Everyday is the right day to accumulate gold and silver !!
What does all of this mean for gold and silver? First of all, the US is on this track of a weaker currency, which is good for gold and silver. The demand for oil is increasing across the world, and the US $ prices received for that oil is increasing. The dollar, being the supposed 'reserve currency', is perceived to be in a vulnerable position. The exporter is worried, maybe the price of oil in dollars will drop, and the lost purchasing power will become a reality. In a risk assessment, it is decided that fiat currencies are inherently worthless, so the decision is made to store some of the exporting receipts in gold and silver. Taking this a step further, the same can be said for any country exporting to the US and receiving devaluing dollars in return for their items sold.

That the US is devaluing the dollar is a given. Your net income received, after taxes are taken out, is able to purchase less and less of the items needed on a day by day basis. Your savings are depreciating, as each dollar held in your possession is decreasing in value the longer you hold onto it. Inflation in prices paid for items of need, is nothing less than yet another tax on your income. $1000 in savings now, is losing value continuously. The bank statement may say $1000, or even $1020 for the meager interest earned, but your purchasing power is decreasing steadily. You need to protect your hard earned resources to the best of your ability. Gold and Silver can and will do well in times of instability, or in times of inflationary pressures.

Buying gold and silver is not just for speculation of higher prices. It is the wise move!

Everyday is the right day to accumulate gold and silver !!

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/lechner041805.html

Eldo, also, der ist echt gut, schlauchboot skipper.

Zitat

Da kann mir ein rookie peter silly sagen was er will als schlauchboot skipper am strand.

Zitat

Original von Eldorado

Da kann mir ein rookie peter silly sagen was er will als schlauchboot skipper am strand.

ja der vergleich ist sehr gut.
am ende hatte rookie seine gegner immer mit schmerzenden gliedern am boden...

aber eldo reitet seinen gaul erstnoch zum abdecker dann muss der ihn nich extra holen das spart ja dann auch paar groschen wen mans nichmehr so dicke hat

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/swanson041905.html

It is clear that gold and the gold stocks are undergoing a short-term correction. Some think that both will hold their February lows and form a double bottom that will lead to a huge rally later this year. Others fear that the February lows won't hold and gold will get totally smashed. Some think the gold bull market is over.(Peter Silly) :D, CNBC no longer even talks about gold.

Metal Stocks Gearing up for Triple Play Summer Rally?

By Tim Wood
19 Apr 2005 at 04:20 PM EDT

ZURICH (ResourceInvestor.com) --The informal warm-up for the European Gold Forum ongoing in Switzerland’s money capital was tainted by some gloom. Many of the participants we spoke to bemoaned the weak state of the market.

Not that it was much better a year ago as stock multiples in the gold sector went into freefall after hitting record highs in November and December 2003. In fact April-May 2004 marked the end one of the worst wipe-outs in the present bull run.

It’s not possible to know whether we’re going to see a triple play of summer gold price rallies, but what is certain is that the gold sector is valued at levels seen last August when the gold price averaged just over $407/oz. So once again investors must ask, as they did this time last year, if stocks are pointing to lower metal prices, or are truly oversold.

Yet here we are at an impressive $432/oz – only some 4% off the November 2004 levels – but the top 80 or so gold stocks in the world have lost almost a fifth of their market value in less than half a year. At least we know that it’s not uncharted territory. Much worse losses occurred early last year on only a marginally sharper decline in the price of gold.

So far in the last two years such dramatic declines have presaged strong and quite enduring recoveries though it has been increasingly harder for stocks to best their previous valuations. However, note that the context is different this year in that the whole metals complex is behaving differently and there are revived concerns about the US falling into recession or a stagflationary quagmire.

There has been a shocking rout among the juniors where the selling has been indiscriminate. But gold equities have had it relatively easy when you look at the thrashing meted out to some of the platinum plays last week.

At this point the best performing stock from the 2004 gold peer group is no longer even a gold stock – Aflease’s [AFLUY.PK] uranium after-burner has done all the hard work along with a buy-side assist. The only other standouts at this point in 2005 are Gammon Lake [GRS] which has gained a fifth and is sometimes linked by rumour with the new Goldcorp.

It is followed by Peter Hambro [POG] with a similar performance, and buoyed by the indefatigable enthusiasm of chairman Peter Hambro. Notably on Monday Peter Hambro Mining reported a hefty improvement in its full year financial results, and the stock continues to be propelled by expectations for accelerating growth and possible windfall gains from the Russian gold rationalization that continues to play out.

It is noteworthy that all the AIM listed FSU gold producers are doing rather well so far this year Celtic, Oxus and Highland also holding on to their prices from the end of 2004.

Other stocks making a respectable showing so far this year are Bolivar Gold, Crystallex, Nevsun and Randgold.

It looks like Gold is going under 430 again,the jump yesterday was very high and I would not be surprised to see it below today.
The PPT will react and tries their upmost to keep it low.
Watch 30 min. before NYSE opening and minutes before the closing bell.

IMHO

Gruss

Eldorado

The Dollar Danger

Tuesday, April 19, 2005; Page A18

TREASURY Secretary John W. Snow did his best to sound serious over the weekend about the fault lines in the world economy. He called on China to stop pegging its currency to the dollar, a reform intended to allow the Chinese currency to rise, easing the flood of cheap exports that contributes to the record U.S. trade deficit. At the same time, Mr. Snow promised cuts in the U.S. budget deficit, which would reduce the nation's consumption, including the consumption of imports; Japan and the European Union were urged to promote growth, which would suck in U.S. exports. All of these reforms are intended to bring the nation's trade deficit back toward balance. If they fail, markets may cut the trade deficit in their own blunt way -- via a precipitous collapse of the dollar.

The problem is that nobody believes Mr. Snow's rhetoric. He reiterated the administration's plan to cut the deficit to less than 2 percent of gross domestic product, down from 3.6 percent last year. But this plan leaves out the cost of operations in Iraq and the general war on terrorism, and it assumes no reform of the alternative minimum tax and no rise in federal spending. Using more plausible assumptions, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities expects the budget deficit to hit a low of 2.5 percent in 2010 and then start rising again.

Perhaps because Mr. Snow's budget promises are not credible, the United States has done little to force its international partners to play their parts. European leaders are dragging their feet on pro-growth structural reform, and the chief of the European Central Bank refuses to contemplate lower interest rates, baffling most independent observers. Japan's recovery continues to be weak, and the Japanese conspicuously refused to join the Europeans and the United States in calling on China to change its currency policy. In short, the Bush economic team is failing diplomatically as well as failing to present a plausible budget policy.

As with budget deficits, the risks posed by the U.S. trade deficit may not materialize for a long time. High oil prices have created windfall revenue for oil exporters, and the windfalls have to be invested somewhere -- so for the moment the United States can continue borrowing to pay for imports. At the same time, strong economic growth has distracted investors from bad deficit news; last year the world economy grew by more than 5 percent, the fastest in a generation. But the trade deficit, which is already the biggest on record, continues to grow. Americans cannot consume more than they produce forever.

Will a new gold coin make a mint?

Government sets plan to mint a 24-karat gold coin. The stated intention: to make a bunch of money.

April 19, 2005: 3:33 PM EDT
By Gordon T. Anderson, CNN/Money staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Will a new gold coin make a mint for the U.S. Mint?

On Tuesday, officials in Washington announced the planned introduction of the first 24-karat gold coin in the nation's history. The piece, set to be rolled out sometime in 2006, will boast a 99.99 percent "fineness" rating. In other words, it's almost perfectly pure gold.

Tuesday, April 19, 2005, 10:29:00 PM EST

Gold and Dollar Market Summary

Author: Jim Sinclair

The US dollar rally and gold’s decline are for all intents and purposes behind us. The words of former Fed Chairman Volcker have been heard so any reconstruction of either of those earlier events is an uphill grind and will not succeed. New highs in gold are in the offing.

Now let’s look at the fundamental dollar facts and use logic - not TA, not top calling or sooth saying - because the US dollar market is the most fundamental on the planet.

The Bernanke Electric Mayhem Money Printing Machine and all its ramifications is the unseen hand behind the PPI. This is not anything that can be called transitory or irrelevant because of violent price movements such as oil. In a nutshell, it is the hidden hand of monetary liquidity that was introduced unconventionally into the marketplace and can not be recovered.

This brand of monetary liquidity was created out of thin air and seemingly fell like manna from the heavens. It poured into the world monetary system with the speed of bank wires from Japan to the New York Federal Reserve as the former intervened in the international currency markets. This is the electronic character of Bernanke’s money printing press.

The mechanics of this type of international monetary liquidity was produced by the purchase of US Treasury instruments all across the maturity spectrum by the New York Fed as soon as each bank wire was received from the Bank of Japan. This liquidity blast was mechanically produced by the management of the Japanese Float account, namely the New York Federal Reserve.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank then bought US Treasury instruments in a 24 hour operation as fast as dollars were produced by the Japanese intervention in the marketplace to maintain an artificial level of the Yen in international markets.

This non-traditional method of expanding international monetary liquidity CANNOT BE DRAINED from the system because you can buy huge amounts of US Treasuries which you can not sell without cremating the bond market. This is true because bonds are always being produced so the supply is theoretically unlimited but demand is not.

This colossal injection of the largest amount of international monetary liquidity that has ever occurred in the shortest period of time is the UNSEEN HAND that will drive inflation up as the US economy rolls over and moves sideways at a high level.

The reason the US economy will not crater is the fiscal stimulation caused by two wars and the monetary stimulation that was created by the above mentioned non-traditional methods.

Corporate profits will, however, crater because costs are going up, money costs more and productivity is headed lower, with consumers less optimistic due to the increased cost of everything including gas.

The decline in corporate and personal tax revenues, with no meaningful decline in expenses, will drive the US Federal budget much higher. The increased size of the US Federal Budget Deficit will cause the US Current Account to rise, making it larger as a percent of GDP. This is how it is factored into dollar valuation.

Let’s face it, the US Current Account Deficit is the speedometer of money exiting the US into international currency markets.

The increased amount of US dollars entering the international currency market as measured by a higher US Current Account Deficit means more US dollar supply in that market. In the end, that means a lower price for the dollar.

The key price now for the US dollar is not at .8000 but at .8250 as it indicates that the USDX is headed into the .70s. That drop will occur when the market expects a consecutive three month minimum period when the inflow of non-US funds into US monetary instruments falls below the US Trade Deficit numbers.

This point is best explained in terms of a family’s inability to borrow to meet their expenses. When that happens, local merchants will no longer extend credit and banks will call in loans.

A nation’s financial health is no different than a family’s. It is the line of demarcation between the assumption of being a “going concern” and a “growing” concern.

At this point gold will, IMO, trade at $529 and has the capacity to move out of a normal bull market into a run away market.

These are the facts that will run over TA and create a shocking rise in gold and a fall in the US dollar. Please re-read the words of Chairman Volcker as you think over all of the above.

Now let look at the key element for timing:

a. The US dollar will drop below .8000 when the market assumes that there is a high probability that the TIC figures, reported as the flow of funds into the US by investors, will be below the three months of US trade deficit. This means in the collective mind of the marketplace that the US can not pay its bills in the normal course of order but must finance internally with all the ramifications implied.

b. When the dollar drops below .8000, the price of gold will reach for $529.

c. $529 is the price that should be considered the maximum in a normal bull market. However, gold may not stop there.

d. What will determine the possibility of gold moving into a runaway condition, which is defined as anything over $529, will be the action of the US dollar after it breaches .8000 - which it will.

Are Gold & Silver Finally Airborne?

Rick Ackerman
Wednesday, Apr 20

"I'm confused!" writes Bill R., a paid-up Rick's Picks subscriber. "Is this gold and silver rally going to last, or should we wait for your call for the bottom?" First of all, Bill, let me say that as investors we need never be confused about where to enter or exit a position. Both of these things are entirely knowable from the get-go, and it is well worth our diligence to fix these details in our minds before initiating a trade, since being wrong is often easier to live with than being confused. Wrong means buying a stock, having it go against us, and then bailing out. When we are confused, though, we allow psychological pain's unpredictable nuances to make such decisions for us, usually with poor results. Thus, if bullion prices continue to rise, we might jump in belatedly, angry at ourselves for having missed the bottom. We've all done this, or something like it, succeeding in the process at something we can only rarely achieve deliberately - i.e., picking the exact top.

Nobody rings the bell when its time to buy or sell !

mfg

XEX

Ich sahe gerade meinen favourite guy Hugh Hendry von Ode Management auf CNBC.
Es gibt nur ganz wenige die noch objectiv und weitsichtig sind.
Die anderen sind von der muppet show und reden dementsprechend.
Hendry kenne ich seit Jahren und er war eine gute guideline bis jetzt. Er ist gerade aus und haut einen fakten um die ohren wo der Moderator fast keine chance hat es daran zu meckern.

Er sagte folgendes, es gibt fast nichts was heute die haelfte kostet wie bei gold bei 800 USD. Normal ist das fast alles zum vierfachen preis verkauft wird als die herstellungskosten. Er sagt es ist easy dass gold auf 500 $ steigt. Es wird dann in stufen und zick zack ppt attacks ueber die 800 $ klettern in "wenigen jahren",dabei er.

Alles wird steigen, Oil 80 Dollar normal, weil sogar zucker, soya, etc. steigen wird durch inflation und dem backfire vom gedruckten fiat dollars. Die blase platzt und es gibt keine nation in der geschichte die es geschafft hat mit drucken von konfetti waehrungen auf ewig zu ueberleben.

Der Gold/Oil ratio zeigt auch die Unterbewertung von Gold dubios an.

Er steigt jetzt in den minen aktien ein, er hat vorher alle verkauft bei 453, da er wusste es kommen wieder einige PPT anschlaege.

Leider hat er mir wegen den verkauf nicht bescheid gegeben.

Er meinte auch der Rand wird manipuliert und kann auf dauer diese staerke wirschaftlich und politisch nicht beibehalten.

Er hat schon immer von GFI HMY DRD geschwaermt hat jedoch vorher mit profit verkauft weil er die ratte in der kueche gerochen hat.

Anyway,he makes sense to me, he never lied since I know him.

We all have to work to get the timing right !
Next time we do it right !

Cheers

XEX

Gold und Silber sind heute im plus, xau und Hui im Minus, woran liegt das?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty042005.html

Gold was down last week, and down a lot, and I feel bad for those of you who have followed the advice of The Mogambo and bought gold and silver, and are standing outside of my house, clamoring for your money back, as per my Famous Mogambo Guarantee (FMG), which promises TWICE your money back if my advice is bad. Unfortunately, you neglected to read the disclaimer in footnote 123, in the back, in small print, where you would have read, in Latin, "This whole Mogambo thing is a big scam, and you ain't gonna get your money back. The Famous Mogambo Guarantee (FMG) that you are buying is worthless, and this Prospectus is less than worthless, in that several trees died to provide the paper to print this bogus crap on it."

But, although you are angry and disappointed, and we are both getting really irritated by my wife laughing at you and screeching, "I told you so! I told you not to trust him, but would you listen to me? No! Now get off my lawn! Take your flaming torches and wait down the street until he goes to the store later, probably for a donut, or a pizza, or a pizza made with donuts, I dunno. But you can mob his car and beat the hell out of him then!" But, and I cannot stress this enough, 1) do NOT wait down the street, 2) do NOT mob my car, 3) do NOT beat the hell out of me, and 4) keep buying gold, because if gold does NOT soon start moving up and turning profits like a glorious gushing well that is spewing dollars all over the place, then it will be the first time in all of 5,000 years of history when it did NOT so respond when a misshapen, mal-invested, over-leveraged and highly-indebted Big Government economy got to this egregious point in its headlong drive towards national bankruptcy. And trust me when I say that they ALL got to this point, to one degree or another, because governments are always eventually filled with corrupt buttheads, and especially so after long, credit-fueled booms. And when they all saw that they couldn't, or shouldn't, raise taxes, they all typically decided to invade a neighboring country and steal THEIR money, or confiscate the money of the Jews, or just print the damn money they needed, which was the worst option, as it increased the money supply, which had to eventually find its way into the prices of things, because there is nowhere else for money to go, except into things, which makes the original problem worse. Just like we are doing now, and although we are creating money and credit with both hands, we only invade other countries to steal their oil.

So, and this is the Mogambo Investment Tip Of The Day (MITOTD), these pullbacks in the price of gold and silver are golden (pun intended) or silveren (if you get my drift) buying opportunities, because half of a very famous investment strategy is to "buy low." One day, the other half of that phrase, "sell high," will make you want to name your children and grandchildren "Mogambo" out of sheer dumb-ass gratitude for giving you such good advice, and you will fly me up to the kid's christening or the bar-mitzvah or bris something, thinking that I will give the kid a present of some cash, but I won't.

And gold is low-priced by a long shot, and silver is so grossly under-priced that I would call silver "the buy of the century."

- Richard S. sent me a nice forward entitled "Taylor On US Markets & Gold, Roach, Hoye and Russell All Point Toward Deflationary Pressures" which the rest of the article expanded upon by providing some of these guys' thinking, which I distill, because I know how important and busy you are, into this pithy Mogambo Executive Summary (MES) which is "Doom for assets."

Unfortunately, this does not mean that consumer prices are doomed, as I am finding just the opposite, having done the grocery shopping this morning, and then coming back to the office and reading that the New York Times has figured that food prices have risen by 20-30% in the last year or so. Naturally, I insult the Leftist NYT with things like "No kidding? And where in the hell have you been for the last couple of years that this is only NOW coming to your stupid attention, you Leftist-trash buttheads?" In fact, consumer prices are zooming, to which I will readily attest, having, as I said, done the grocery shopping this morning, and my eyes are still having trouble focusing from where my brain blew a fuse at the cost. It haunts me.

And why does this haunt me? Well, if you will stop throwing pretzels at me for one damn minute, I will tell you. It is for two distinct and separate reasons. Firstly, when my check bounces, the store manager is going to be very grumpy with me again, and the next time I go into his store we are going to get into a real tussle where I am valiantly struggling to break free from the clutches of the security personnel (Bob and Wheezer) while simultaneously trying to explain to him that I am willing to settle for 70% of the amount owed, which I figure is fair, because I am paying him with dollars that were earned two years ago, and thus they are more valuable than ordinary dollars earned today, because in that two-year period the dollar has lost 30% of its value, all thanks to the damnable Federal Reserve creating so damn much money and credit, which turns into new, lower-value dollars when somebody borrows them, and the Fed has been doing this day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year, decade after decade, until my heads hurts from thinking about the effect this is going to have on rising prices as all this money winds its way around and around the world, buying things, and then, because he is stupid or because he is smart enough to see through my transparent ruse, he will say "no."

And the second reason I will reveal by asking a question. Do you think that the French Revolution happened because prices for consumer staples deflated after their government printed up all that money? Hahaha! You think that the misery of Weimar Germany was caused by food being cheaper after the government printed up all that money? Again, I say, or chortle mirthlessly, as you knew I would, "Hahaha!"

And food prices are going to get worse, as Michael W. Hodges of the Grandfather Economic Report has a little bad news about that when he notes "Not only is the technology product sector in deficit, but the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service estimates 2005 will be the first year in nearly 50 that America will not turn an agricultural trade surplus."

So we have to now import food, and with a falling dollar? Yow! Stock up on food now, because this means that grocery prices will just keep getting higher and higher as the dollar falls lower and lower, which it will, because the boneheads in Washington are actually trying to devalue the dollar!

- An Asia Times article entitled "China's fury doesn't wash, but why the froth?" by Marc Erikson is about how the Chinese are supposedly expressing their fury and anger by demonstrating in the streets, all because Japan has new school textbooks that downplay the fact that Japan acted in a murderous, despicably barbaric way during WWII, especially when they were in China killing Chinese people, young, old, children, and babies, by the score.

Fortunately, the Chinese are not as upset about how America does not emphasize in our school textbooks our horrific record of invading countries, bombing countries, shooting rockets at countries, arming the enemies of countries, assassinating leaders of countries, killing hundreds of thousands of people, and all the other arrogant bully stuff we have done and, apparently, are getting away with. Whew! Dodged that bullet! Or, if they ARE demonstrating in the street about the USA, this Erikson guy doesn't mention it.

But Mr. Erikson is not sure that the Chinese people are actually angry at anything, but that this may be something much more sinister. "The obvious question is," he asks, "why was all this cooked up, for what purpose, and why now? One thing, though, is quite certain: the Chinese claim that Japan is to blame for the unrest is absurd.

"But after seeing what I saw in Shenzhen, I know that the Chinese government and/or Communist Party got this thing going and kept it going. Students might do this sort of thing on their own. But in Shenzhen there are no students. It's a special economic zone chock full of contract workers from all over China."

As to what this may mean, you do not have to wait for The Mogambo to sober up and tell you. In fact, Mr. Erikson does that for us, giving us time to order another round of drinks with those cute little umbrellas in them. As we sip and fence ("Thrust! Parry! Riposte!") with those little plastic swords, he stays on the job and writes, "To be systematic about it, there seem to be three possibilities: 1) the government wants to divert attention from pressing domestic problems; 2) Communist Party factional issues are fought out in a strange arena; 3) Beijing wants leverage to stoke up nationalist fervor for international gain. Neither 1) nor 2) can be entirely ruled out."

A government trying to divert attention from domestic problems by rabble-rousing? I thought that was an American invention!

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Unfortunately, you made, on average, zero percent a year for the entire seven-year stretch. Furthermore, it is impossible for everyone to make money in the stock market, because if it WAS possible, then all a country would have to do is print money, give it to the people, who would then buy shares with the money, and then they could all sit back and watch with glee as they all got wealthy, and everybody in the country could retire in luxury! And if you think THAT is going to happen, then, and at the risk of repeating myself, "Hahahaha!"

Of course all the boneheads on CNBC and their "usual suspect" guest list all DO believe that this is possible, and that is why they are all sure, absolutely sure, that this is the perfect time to pick up more shares of stock. Any shares. Just buy. Now. And lots of them.

- Richard L. Solyom, Chairman of the Sound Dollar Committee, has written a nice summary of the essay "THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM: A FATAL PARASITE ON THE AMERICAN BODY POLITIC" by Dr. Edwin Vieira, Jr. Mr. Solyom writes, "Dr. Vieira's central theme is that today's scheme of Federal-Reserve-System fiat currency and fractional- reserve banking is plainly unconstitutional, inherently fraudulent, economically unworkable in the long run, and subversive of America's political traditions of individual liberty and private property."

He adds, showing himself to be the sunny optimist, "Hopefully, Dr. Vieira's message will prove to be a warning that comes, if none too soon, at least not too late."

"Hahahahaha!" says The Mogambo. "Of course it is too late! It is far, far too late! Head for the hills, dragging your precious metals and machineguns behind you!

- Rob Peebles, in his Prudent Rear Random Walk column, notes that Ed Easterling has written a new book entitled "Unexpected Returns-Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles." The salient point is that when the price earnings (P/E) is high, then the subsequent rewards for buying stocks at these high P/E ratios are low, and when the P/E is low, then the, as you would expect, subsequent rewards for buying stocks are higher.

And where are we now? The P/E on the SP500 is around 20, which is on the very high side, historically, although not in the extremely high side (like it has been in the last few years) and not in the insanely high side, which is where a lot of Nasdaq stocks dwell, mostly because they have little earnings, but have, people think, good prospects for one day actually having some. Which they won't.

- Bob Wood, of Kaizen Managed Assets, has been reading a book called "The Decline and Approaching Fall of the U.S." and it has shook him up pretty bad. For instance, for 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 the deficits were (less trust fund assets) $725.5b, $738.0b, $667.6b and $816.6b respectively, which, when added together, comes to $2.947 trillion. Those are just the budget DEFICITS!

Ugh.

**** The Mogambo Sez: The surprising resilience of the stock market to go up in the face of all of this is not surprising, as the Fed is on record as saying that they stand ready, willing and able to use "unconventional" methods to keep the markets from imploding (what they refer to as their dreaded "deflation"), including, but not limited to, buying futures, shares, bonds, mortgages or even land and houses. And I am sure that a lot of pressure is being brought to bear from foreign governments, whose citizens have invested a lot of money in American assets, and they sure as hell want to make sure that prices do not fall.

Richard Daughty

spammaster

pascal105

Short selling of the cabals with little money in the sharemarket !! 8o.
Normally gold indicates vice versa with HUI and increase off HUI indicates a higher goldprice later. When gold goes up and shares go down, its a sign of manipulation.

Gruss

XEX