Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Monday, April 18, 2005, 7:30:00 PM EST

Gold and Dollar Market Summary

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGA:

Signs appeared in the marketplace today that the short covering and carry trade reversal down under have reached the point of exhaustion. The US dollar shows signs of having made a top in this counter-trend rally and, as a result, gold appears to be bottoming -if not today then likely very soon.

The words of former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker will be borne out in the marketplace. There is simply no chance at all of launching a dollar bull market when the cure to its ills is not policy replacement but market forces. Sure market forces will affect the US dollar but the trend of the market force is down not up.

der handelsblattlink geht aber nich

„Anleger könnten sich den kalten Krieg zurückwünschen”
http://www.faz.net/s/Rub3B5979…Tpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html

Is this the rise of the death with 431$ ?

Or just a little breather ?

Anyhow, ...... the air is good right now.

Smile ! :))

XEX

Goldpreis bereits über der 332.- Dollar Marke

Wer redet denn da noch von Petersilien

Susi

Eldorado und alle anderen aktiven Poster

Eventuell kann ich Euch etwas behilflich sein bei Euren Nachforschungen im Internet.
Probiert mal diese drei Programme aus *Trialversionen*. Klein und handlich sind sie.
Praktisch sind sie auch. Sie helfen Grenzen zu überwinden auf die man heute leider
auf immer mehr Homepages stösst.

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Alles für die PDF Files

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PDF Extract 2.2 Extract text and image , convert pdf page to image , convert pdf to word

Susi

Gold und Dollar haben sich gerade geküsst

Lange, lange ist es her seit .......

Jetzt lässt sich der Dollar fallen, damit Gold aufsteigen kann

herr wirf hirn vom himmel...das küchengeschwader greift an

kann ich ja gleich die umlaufbahn vom merkur und das wachsen von tomatensträuchern auf ein blatt malen und bei einer berührung fang ich an zu jubeln das es ein handelssignal ist

Susi

You can't teach an old dog new tricks !

Danke aber ich habe meine eigenen tools und 10 jahre intuition gesammelt sowie genug charts und programme zum anschauen.
Bis jetzt hat mich meine intuition noch nicht im stich gelassen.
Ich segle seit 10 Jahren auf hoher see !
Da kann mir ein rookie peter silly sagen was er will als schlauchboot skipper am strand.

Gruss

Eldorado

Gold comments:

*As long discussed in this column, gold will make its real move independent of the dollar. The Gold Cartel has used its understandable relationship with, or link, vis-à-vis the dollar as a manipulatory vehicle to con the investment world as to what its price could do. No need to go through that drill again.

Both gold and silver stormed out of the gate this morning and held their gains. Is this $6 Rule something else or what! As soon as gold went up $6 on the day, bells and whistles went off everywhere. It made up $6.60 on the session briefly and that was all she wrote. Gold went sideways for hours until the close.

When gold closed the euro was only .28 higher and the dollar was .13 lower. Later in the day the dollar weakened further to 83.71, down .26 and the euro finished at 130.91, up .56. At one point in the day the euro gold price was up almost as much as gold in dollars – a rare event on a relatively big move.

*Gold is beginning its march to well over $1,000 per ounce because The Gold Cartel is running out of physical gold to keep the price down.

*It should surprise no one that gold was allowed to rise on a day in which interest rates were lower and the stock market was on the rise. This would not have been allowed last week with the US financial system under visible market pressure.

*It also should surprise no one that gold makes a stellar move higher today after the IMF gold sale plan is shot down. The bums are in trouble. At least I think so, which is why I have been pounding the table on this very subject. They are running out of enough physical gold to meet the supply/demand deficit. The Swiss sales have ended which were running around 50 tonnes per month I believe. It should then come as no surprise the ECB sold 47 tonnes last month. Who will it be this month? Maybe NOBODY left to take the place of the Swiss!!!

*It is very constructive to see both gold AND silver bolt up like this at the same time with gold shooting into new high recovery ground.

*It is also constructive technically that gold has no downside gaps to fill. The breakaway gap could come any day now from a technical perspective. It ought to be a significant one which won’t be filled for a long time.

*Gold went sideways for a month and has broken out to the upside. This is a bullish set-up as it now has near-term massive support down to the $430 level to cushion setbacks. Out of the market bulls will buy on any breaks. So will cash buyers. This is WHY we are likely to get a breakaway gap any day now.

*It is very significant for the big picture that gold went up the limit today ($6 Rule) while the dollar was steady until later in the day. This tells me gold is finally making its move for the reasons oft expressed here, those other than what the dollar is up (or down) to. Matter of fact, this has been my rant for a week. All of us like gratification of some sort. This certainly is one of those occasions for moi.

*The way I see today’s upside breakout is that it, without corresponding strength in the foreign currencies, signals the beginning of the end of The Gold Cartel.

As mentioned above a couple of times, it will come as no surprise to MIDAS subscribers that The Gold Cartel is running out of physical gold to continue their scheme at these prices. The only way for them to satisfy existing demand is to have some sticker shock hit the market. This will only occur if the price rallies significantly from these levels. Then maybe the surging buyers in India, etc., might pull back once gold rallies $50 per ounce.

*There is a notion among many savvy gold watchers that the gold shares will lead the way for bullion. MIDAS has never bought into that notion BECAUSE this is a rigged market. The only thing which matters is whether the white collar thugs run out of the means to hold the price down, OR are blown up and no longer able to maintain their massive short positions – – i.e., as the result of a derivatives crisis for example.

*The Café Sentiment indicator works again. As mentioned yesterday, it briefly went to a new low of 1.5.

*Did gold move higher because of inflationary concerns? Doubt it. The bonds soared a ½ point, making new highs for its recovery move. They rose because inflation concerns have supposedly lessened. While methinks this is misplaced thinking, it is the reality of the day. Therefore, you can’t get away with explaining the gold rally for the opposite reason.

*No surprise about gold moving up here. You could barely find a short-term bull anywhere last week. The Gold Cartel did good work lulling the herd to sleep.

*Both the gold and silver charts are very constructive from a technical perspective. Both precious metals are breaking out to the upside after forming solid bases below.

What does all of this mean for gold and silver? First of all, the US is on this track of a weaker currency, which is good for gold and silver. The demand for oil is increasing across the world, and the US $ prices received for that oil is increasing. The dollar, being the supposed 'reserve currency', is perceived to be in a vulnerable position. The exporter is worried, maybe the price of oil in dollars will drop, and the lost purchasing power will become a reality. In a risk assessment, it is decided that fiat currencies are inherently worthless, so the decision is made to store some of the exporting receipts in gold and silver. Taking this a step further, the same can be said for any country exporting to the US and receiving devaluing dollars in return for their items sold.

That the US is devaluing the dollar is a given. Your net income received, after taxes are taken out, is able to purchase less and less of the items needed on a day by day basis. Your savings are depreciating, as each dollar held in your possession is decreasing in value the longer you hold onto it. Inflation in prices paid for items of need, is nothing less than yet another tax on your income. $1000 in savings now, is losing value continuously. The bank statement may say $1000, or even $1020 for the meager interest earned, but your purchasing power is decreasing steadily. You need to protect your hard earned resources to the best of your ability. Gold and Silver can and will do well in times of instability, or in times of inflationary pressures.

Buying gold and silver is not just for speculation of higher prices. It is the wise move!

Everyday is the right day to accumulate gold and silver !!
What does all of this mean for gold and silver? First of all, the US is on this track of a weaker currency, which is good for gold and silver. The demand for oil is increasing across the world, and the US $ prices received for that oil is increasing. The dollar, being the supposed 'reserve currency', is perceived to be in a vulnerable position. The exporter is worried, maybe the price of oil in dollars will drop, and the lost purchasing power will become a reality. In a risk assessment, it is decided that fiat currencies are inherently worthless, so the decision is made to store some of the exporting receipts in gold and silver. Taking this a step further, the same can be said for any country exporting to the US and receiving devaluing dollars in return for their items sold.

That the US is devaluing the dollar is a given. Your net income received, after taxes are taken out, is able to purchase less and less of the items needed on a day by day basis. Your savings are depreciating, as each dollar held in your possession is decreasing in value the longer you hold onto it. Inflation in prices paid for items of need, is nothing less than yet another tax on your income. $1000 in savings now, is losing value continuously. The bank statement may say $1000, or even $1020 for the meager interest earned, but your purchasing power is decreasing steadily. You need to protect your hard earned resources to the best of your ability. Gold and Silver can and will do well in times of instability, or in times of inflationary pressures.

Buying gold and silver is not just for speculation of higher prices. It is the wise move!

Everyday is the right day to accumulate gold and silver !!

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/lechner041805.html

Eldo, also, der ist echt gut, schlauchboot skipper.

Zitat

Da kann mir ein rookie peter silly sagen was er will als schlauchboot skipper am strand.

Zitat

Original von Eldorado

Da kann mir ein rookie peter silly sagen was er will als schlauchboot skipper am strand.

ja der vergleich ist sehr gut.
am ende hatte rookie seine gegner immer mit schmerzenden gliedern am boden...

aber eldo reitet seinen gaul erstnoch zum abdecker dann muss der ihn nich extra holen das spart ja dann auch paar groschen wen mans nichmehr so dicke hat

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/swanson041905.html

It is clear that gold and the gold stocks are undergoing a short-term correction. Some think that both will hold their February lows and form a double bottom that will lead to a huge rally later this year. Others fear that the February lows won't hold and gold will get totally smashed. Some think the gold bull market is over.(Peter Silly) :D, CNBC no longer even talks about gold.

Metal Stocks Gearing up for Triple Play Summer Rally?

By Tim Wood
19 Apr 2005 at 04:20 PM EDT

ZURICH (ResourceInvestor.com) --The informal warm-up for the European Gold Forum ongoing in Switzerland’s money capital was tainted by some gloom. Many of the participants we spoke to bemoaned the weak state of the market.

Not that it was much better a year ago as stock multiples in the gold sector went into freefall after hitting record highs in November and December 2003. In fact April-May 2004 marked the end one of the worst wipe-outs in the present bull run.

It’s not possible to know whether we’re going to see a triple play of summer gold price rallies, but what is certain is that the gold sector is valued at levels seen last August when the gold price averaged just over $407/oz. So once again investors must ask, as they did this time last year, if stocks are pointing to lower metal prices, or are truly oversold.

Yet here we are at an impressive $432/oz – only some 4% off the November 2004 levels – but the top 80 or so gold stocks in the world have lost almost a fifth of their market value in less than half a year. At least we know that it’s not uncharted territory. Much worse losses occurred early last year on only a marginally sharper decline in the price of gold.

So far in the last two years such dramatic declines have presaged strong and quite enduring recoveries though it has been increasingly harder for stocks to best their previous valuations. However, note that the context is different this year in that the whole metals complex is behaving differently and there are revived concerns about the US falling into recession or a stagflationary quagmire.

There has been a shocking rout among the juniors where the selling has been indiscriminate. But gold equities have had it relatively easy when you look at the thrashing meted out to some of the platinum plays last week.

At this point the best performing stock from the 2004 gold peer group is no longer even a gold stock – Aflease’s [AFLUY.PK] uranium after-burner has done all the hard work along with a buy-side assist. The only other standouts at this point in 2005 are Gammon Lake [GRS] which has gained a fifth and is sometimes linked by rumour with the new Goldcorp.

It is followed by Peter Hambro [POG] with a similar performance, and buoyed by the indefatigable enthusiasm of chairman Peter Hambro. Notably on Monday Peter Hambro Mining reported a hefty improvement in its full year financial results, and the stock continues to be propelled by expectations for accelerating growth and possible windfall gains from the Russian gold rationalization that continues to play out.

It is noteworthy that all the AIM listed FSU gold producers are doing rather well so far this year Celtic, Oxus and Highland also holding on to their prices from the end of 2004.

Other stocks making a respectable showing so far this year are Bolivar Gold, Crystallex, Nevsun and Randgold.

It looks like Gold is going under 430 again,the jump yesterday was very high and I would not be surprised to see it below today.
The PPT will react and tries their upmost to keep it low.
Watch 30 min. before NYSE opening and minutes before the closing bell.

IMHO

Gruss

Eldorado

The Dollar Danger

Tuesday, April 19, 2005; Page A18

TREASURY Secretary John W. Snow did his best to sound serious over the weekend about the fault lines in the world economy. He called on China to stop pegging its currency to the dollar, a reform intended to allow the Chinese currency to rise, easing the flood of cheap exports that contributes to the record U.S. trade deficit. At the same time, Mr. Snow promised cuts in the U.S. budget deficit, which would reduce the nation's consumption, including the consumption of imports; Japan and the European Union were urged to promote growth, which would suck in U.S. exports. All of these reforms are intended to bring the nation's trade deficit back toward balance. If they fail, markets may cut the trade deficit in their own blunt way -- via a precipitous collapse of the dollar.

The problem is that nobody believes Mr. Snow's rhetoric. He reiterated the administration's plan to cut the deficit to less than 2 percent of gross domestic product, down from 3.6 percent last year. But this plan leaves out the cost of operations in Iraq and the general war on terrorism, and it assumes no reform of the alternative minimum tax and no rise in federal spending. Using more plausible assumptions, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities expects the budget deficit to hit a low of 2.5 percent in 2010 and then start rising again.

Perhaps because Mr. Snow's budget promises are not credible, the United States has done little to force its international partners to play their parts. European leaders are dragging their feet on pro-growth structural reform, and the chief of the European Central Bank refuses to contemplate lower interest rates, baffling most independent observers. Japan's recovery continues to be weak, and the Japanese conspicuously refused to join the Europeans and the United States in calling on China to change its currency policy. In short, the Bush economic team is failing diplomatically as well as failing to present a plausible budget policy.

As with budget deficits, the risks posed by the U.S. trade deficit may not materialize for a long time. High oil prices have created windfall revenue for oil exporters, and the windfalls have to be invested somewhere -- so for the moment the United States can continue borrowing to pay for imports. At the same time, strong economic growth has distracted investors from bad deficit news; last year the world economy grew by more than 5 percent, the fastest in a generation. But the trade deficit, which is already the biggest on record, continues to grow. Americans cannot consume more than they produce forever.

Will a new gold coin make a mint?

Government sets plan to mint a 24-karat gold coin. The stated intention: to make a bunch of money.

April 19, 2005: 3:33 PM EDT
By Gordon T. Anderson, CNN/Money staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Will a new gold coin make a mint for the U.S. Mint?

On Tuesday, officials in Washington announced the planned introduction of the first 24-karat gold coin in the nation's history. The piece, set to be rolled out sometime in 2006, will boast a 99.99 percent "fineness" rating. In other words, it's almost perfectly pure gold.

Tuesday, April 19, 2005, 10:29:00 PM EST

Gold and Dollar Market Summary

Author: Jim Sinclair

The US dollar rally and gold’s decline are for all intents and purposes behind us. The words of former Fed Chairman Volcker have been heard so any reconstruction of either of those earlier events is an uphill grind and will not succeed. New highs in gold are in the offing.

Now let’s look at the fundamental dollar facts and use logic - not TA, not top calling or sooth saying - because the US dollar market is the most fundamental on the planet.

The Bernanke Electric Mayhem Money Printing Machine and all its ramifications is the unseen hand behind the PPI. This is not anything that can be called transitory or irrelevant because of violent price movements such as oil. In a nutshell, it is the hidden hand of monetary liquidity that was introduced unconventionally into the marketplace and can not be recovered.

This brand of monetary liquidity was created out of thin air and seemingly fell like manna from the heavens. It poured into the world monetary system with the speed of bank wires from Japan to the New York Federal Reserve as the former intervened in the international currency markets. This is the electronic character of Bernanke’s money printing press.

The mechanics of this type of international monetary liquidity was produced by the purchase of US Treasury instruments all across the maturity spectrum by the New York Fed as soon as each bank wire was received from the Bank of Japan. This liquidity blast was mechanically produced by the management of the Japanese Float account, namely the New York Federal Reserve.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank then bought US Treasury instruments in a 24 hour operation as fast as dollars were produced by the Japanese intervention in the marketplace to maintain an artificial level of the Yen in international markets.

This non-traditional method of expanding international monetary liquidity CANNOT BE DRAINED from the system because you can buy huge amounts of US Treasuries which you can not sell without cremating the bond market. This is true because bonds are always being produced so the supply is theoretically unlimited but demand is not.

This colossal injection of the largest amount of international monetary liquidity that has ever occurred in the shortest period of time is the UNSEEN HAND that will drive inflation up as the US economy rolls over and moves sideways at a high level.

The reason the US economy will not crater is the fiscal stimulation caused by two wars and the monetary stimulation that was created by the above mentioned non-traditional methods.

Corporate profits will, however, crater because costs are going up, money costs more and productivity is headed lower, with consumers less optimistic due to the increased cost of everything including gas.

The decline in corporate and personal tax revenues, with no meaningful decline in expenses, will drive the US Federal budget much higher. The increased size of the US Federal Budget Deficit will cause the US Current Account to rise, making it larger as a percent of GDP. This is how it is factored into dollar valuation.

Let’s face it, the US Current Account Deficit is the speedometer of money exiting the US into international currency markets.

The increased amount of US dollars entering the international currency market as measured by a higher US Current Account Deficit means more US dollar supply in that market. In the end, that means a lower price for the dollar.

The key price now for the US dollar is not at .8000 but at .8250 as it indicates that the USDX is headed into the .70s. That drop will occur when the market expects a consecutive three month minimum period when the inflow of non-US funds into US monetary instruments falls below the US Trade Deficit numbers.

This point is best explained in terms of a family’s inability to borrow to meet their expenses. When that happens, local merchants will no longer extend credit and banks will call in loans.

A nation’s financial health is no different than a family’s. It is the line of demarcation between the assumption of being a “going concern” and a “growing” concern.

At this point gold will, IMO, trade at $529 and has the capacity to move out of a normal bull market into a run away market.

These are the facts that will run over TA and create a shocking rise in gold and a fall in the US dollar. Please re-read the words of Chairman Volcker as you think over all of the above.

Now let look at the key element for timing:

a. The US dollar will drop below .8000 when the market assumes that there is a high probability that the TIC figures, reported as the flow of funds into the US by investors, will be below the three months of US trade deficit. This means in the collective mind of the marketplace that the US can not pay its bills in the normal course of order but must finance internally with all the ramifications implied.

b. When the dollar drops below .8000, the price of gold will reach for $529.

c. $529 is the price that should be considered the maximum in a normal bull market. However, gold may not stop there.

d. What will determine the possibility of gold moving into a runaway condition, which is defined as anything over $529, will be the action of the US dollar after it breaches .8000 - which it will.

Are Gold & Silver Finally Airborne?

Rick Ackerman
Wednesday, Apr 20

"I'm confused!" writes Bill R., a paid-up Rick's Picks subscriber. "Is this gold and silver rally going to last, or should we wait for your call for the bottom?" First of all, Bill, let me say that as investors we need never be confused about where to enter or exit a position. Both of these things are entirely knowable from the get-go, and it is well worth our diligence to fix these details in our minds before initiating a trade, since being wrong is often easier to live with than being confused. Wrong means buying a stock, having it go against us, and then bailing out. When we are confused, though, we allow psychological pain's unpredictable nuances to make such decisions for us, usually with poor results. Thus, if bullion prices continue to rise, we might jump in belatedly, angry at ourselves for having missed the bottom. We've all done this, or something like it, succeeding in the process at something we can only rarely achieve deliberately - i.e., picking the exact top.

Nobody rings the bell when its time to buy or sell !

mfg

XEX