Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Komme gerade von meiner Gold Tour zurück.

Es scheint Gold lässt sich nicht kleinkriegen!

Silber trotz einer wie vielerorts vermeldeten charttechnisch überkauften Situation weiterhin konfortabel über der 8.- Dollar Marke.

Habe die vergangenen 2 Tage Gold gekauft, physisches Gold versteht sich, und das nicht zu knapp.

Thailändische Goldmünzen um genauer zu sein.

Habe ganz Bangkok auf den Kopf gestellt um die zuletzt ausgegebenen, offiziell kursgültigen 9000.- Thaibath Goldmünzen, und auch einige weitere vorgängige Ausgaben, gegen lokales "Fiat Money" zu Tauschen, solange das noch zu Preisen die momentan verlangt werden, noch möglich ist.

Werde nächstens noch genaueres darüber verlauten lassen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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April 6 - Gold $418.40 up $3.40 - Silver $8.20 up 10 cents

Are The Comex Authorities Beginning Their Silver Panic?

History has demonstrated that the most notable winners usually encountered heartbreaking obstacles before they triumphed. They won because they refused to become discouraged by their defeats... B.C. Forbes (Scottish Journalist)

GO GATA!!!!!

Gold came in almost $3 higher and held those gains most of the session after a brief sell-off in an attempt to fill its opening gap. Gap left unfilled. After the early flurry, the gold trading went comatose, trading either side of $418 much of the time.

The stunning news was the open interest number. It ROSE yesterday to 306,041, up 1497 contracts. This follows Friday’s puny fall of 2737 contracts. From last evening’s MIDAS:

"With the open interest so high one would have expected a much larger drop. Today’s follow through should give us a huge fall. If not, The Gold Cartel might be in deeper trouble sooner than expected as it would tell us more and more of world investors want "in" and have been waiting to buy the dip."

The gold open interest is at its highest levels ever. For gold to fall almost $13 on Friday/Monday and for the open interest to only drop 1240 contracts is astounding. One might have expected a 20,000 contract drop. This does suggest there are more and more investors around the world who want in on the gold play. Certainly there was some fund liquidation the past two days, but most of it was replaced by new longs.

For many weeks I have been talking about a "structural market change" in both gold and silver – discussed it at the resource conference in Chicago too. The unusual growing open interest on such a substantial price drop is more anecdotal evidence gold is indeed changing from a structural standpoint, following silver’s lead. This latest open interest development follows gold’s run from $395 to $433 with little, if any, help from the dollar. That run without dollar weakness support was a divergence from the pattern of the last couple of years and also a sign of a market structural change.

What is important as far as I am concerned is to relate this unusual open interest pattern with John Brimelow’s physical market input. Factually, he confirms how strong the physical market is. More than likely, much of this futures buying is related to this strong physical market. This makes The Gold Cartel’s efforts to break gold down much more difficult. It means CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH needs to go on a more heightened alert.

As oft-stated in this column, gold will only explode when The Gold Cartel loses control of their price-rigging operations. They are desperately doing all they can to keep gold from closing north of $430. If the buying is large enough in the weeks ahead, it might make it near impossible to keep gold from doing just that.

Which leads us to silver. We know by now the bums have LOST control of this market, which is why the silver price keeps going up. It made another 17-year high today to little fanfare. Incredibly, very few pundits/precious metals analysts are even bullish. Silver has run from below $5 to $8.20, gone almost straight up with only minor corrections, and yet, all Wall Street gives this market is silence.

We know why! The crooks rigged silver like they have rigged gold all these years. Silver is running because these jerks don’t have the physical silver to stop it. This is their worst nightmare. They rigged silver so as not to bring attention to their gold price rigging. Now, you can see why. As silver continues its climb, it attracts more and more attention to gold, which could be one of the major reasons the gold open interest is not backing off.

As is often the case, Morgan Stanley was the major early silver seller. They had their way for a while. The silver technicals were a bit shaky in the morning. As a result of the past two day gold related sell-offs from its early day highs, silver had formed two candlestick formations on the upside. With an early surge today ($8.26 bid) and subsequent failure (it was down 3 cents on the day after Morgan’s selling), silver was vulnerable to putting in an outside day key reversal to the downside. It would also been its third candlestick top in a row.

However, silver quietly drifted back up to close very firmly. The potential candlestick negative has now turned into a positive because of silver's close. The floor thought a close above $8.25, basis May, would have been very constructive. If so many think so, perhaps we will get our breakaway gap tomorrow - one that will remain. Remarkably, silver has no near-term gaps to fill on the downside. This is a big positive in my book. No real excitement yet. That is still to come.

May silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/54

The silver open interest rose 2555 contracts to 121,794, a new HIGH. More and more buyers want in. The smart money knows what is going on out there regarding the physical market. This is in spite of most of the bearish mainstream precious metals crowd, some of whom are commenting that silver is going up despite "deteriorating fundamentals." What planet do these clowns live on? There isn’t any silver of any size left in the world except on the Comex. One day it will begin to disappear there too and you will hear the "UH-OH" all over the trading world.

Silver tidbits:

*The May open interest (80,647 contracts) is roughly equivalent to one year’s silver production. If a large number of longs stand for delivery at the end of this month, the shorts and the Comex are in BIG trouble.

*The Comex authorities, who continue to say the are not concerned about the huge short position, must be beginning to twitch more than just a little bit. Tomorrow, after the close, they are raising the Comex silver margin by another $675 to $3375 a contract, good for a 68 cent daily move in silver. This shouldn’t hurt the longs too much as we have the hedging shorts and crooked shorts on the run. It will only have an impact on the longs if the silver price managers are able to really flush silver down about 50 cents from here. Since the price managers are already sucking seaweed without enough physical silver to stay short too much longer, I don’t see a drop like that until silver rises sharply first.

Raising margins like this again, so soon after a recent margin increase to $2750, is like putting out a RED FLAG. On the one hand the Comex/CFTC authorities tell inquirers like Kelly O’Meara of Insight Magazine there is absolutely no problem with the humongous silver short position and then they go and raise the margins.

Note: the copper price went a bit berserk to the upside over the past month. The Comex DID NOT raise the copper margins!

One thing we know is a fact. Silver has gone almost straight up since the GATA ARMY commenced its email/letter writing campaign to the Comex, Spitzer and CFTC. Wonder if Spitzer is poking is head around the Comex yet? We certainly gave him the right heads up. Silver has rallied over $2 per ounce since we bombed the authorities with letters and emails. Coincidence????

Palladium is roaring along as Mahendra predicted. It closed at $324, up $6.

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The John Brimelow Report

CLUNK! Bears bruise paws on something solid

Tuesday, April 6, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.38, PM $5.85, with world gold at $415.40 and $417.40. Ample for legal imports. The Reserve Bank held down the rupee today. Moody’s issued its annual comment on India, remarking on the country’s "strong external liquidity and growth outlook": which implies a positive outlook for gold imports.

Reuters from Singapore this morning quoted dealers noting an upturn in Far Eastern demand, with Malaysia and Hong Kong mentioned. The recently-returned premium over world gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange widened a little more.

While TOCOM opened to a world gold price abruptly weakened by NY, a steepening slide in the yen during the day offset much of this. Volume, at the equivalent of 28,029 Comex lots, was 7% down on yesterday, open interest was virtually unchanged (up 58 Comex), the active contract went out up 9 yen, and world gold edged up 65c from the NY close. From time to time Japan does do something to influence world gold: that time is not now. (NY yesterday traded 57,266 contracts, notably higher than the 46,000 estimated: open interest rose 1,497.)

The astonishing fact is that gold has fallen through a range of some $17 from a multi year high in the past two trading days, with open interest and the spec long positions well known to be at record highs, and yet Comex open interest has fallen, net, only 1,236 contracts (e.g. 123,600 ozs). There were plenty of eager predators looking to start a rout. ScotiaMocatta says:

"Both dealers and funds were noted sellers, forcing the price lower…The record high of the Comex open interest is…helping to encourage profit taking and long liquidation. The metal fell in an orderly fashion as scale down physical buying interest helped cushion the fall..."

UBS adds:

"Stop-loss selling was triggered from commission houses on the Comex floor once gold traded below $417.50 / 418 and further stops were triggered beneath the $416 level and gold traded down to the lows beneath $414 before a weak bounce into the close."

In reality the virtual absence of liquidation suggests that either the longs of the March build-up are extremely determined, or that any fleeing are immediately replaced. Given the behavior of the physical premiums, it is time for any shorts to get nervous. Over-reliance on charting, or on tracking the Euro (not the domestic currency of the main physical buyers) could be dangerous.

JB

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW continues to levitate, closing at 10,570, up 12. The DOG slipped a bit to 2060, down 19.

The dollar fell to 89.08, down .50, while the euro jumped .80 to 120.72.

The euro jumped even though the German economic news was not good:

April 6 (Bloomberg) -- German unemployment increased by the most in a year in March, clouding the outlook for growth in Europe's largest economy after three years of stagnation.
The number of jobless rose a seasonally adjusted 44,000 from February, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said. It was the third straight monthly increase. The adjusted unemployment rate climbed to 10.4 percent from 10.3 percent.
The rise in unemployment may add to calls from politicians for the European Central Bank to lower interest rates to spur growth, which is lagging that of the U.S. and Japan. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's failure to reduce joblessness since taking office 5 1/2 years ago has contributed to a plunge in support for his Social Democratic Party. –END-

Trouble in euro land:

Euro policy crumbling as Italy joins the rebels
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Brussels (Filed: 06/04/2004)

Italy is to press ahead with huge tax cuts in defiance of legal action for breach of the Stability and Growth Pact.

The European Commission is expected to issue Rome with its first "yellow card" tomorrow for violating the spending rules designed to underpin the euro, alleging "one-off" accounting tricks to bring its budget deficit below the limit of 3pc of GDP. The real deficit for 2003 was 4.4pc.

Silvio Berlusconi: says he is 'not interested' in the European Commission's
opinion. The pact is already crumbling after France and Germany escaped punishment last autumn for breaking it three years in a row.

Silvio Berlusconi, Italian prime minister, now appears to be finishing the demolition job. He said a breach of the rules laid down in the Maastricht Treaty would "not be a capital offence", adding that he was "not interested" in the European Commission's opinion.

The newspaper Libero caught the mood in the Berlusconi camp yesterday with the headline: "To Hell with Europe".

Italy can count on Paris and Berlin to crush the European Commission when EU ministers vote on the issue. French documents leaked to Le Monde show that France intends to run deficits of 4pc or more into the middle of the decade, whatever Brussels says.

With the three biggest euro-zone countries openly flouting the pact, the system of fiscal discipline appears to be collapsing. The financial markets remain the only serious instrument for policing excess by spendthrift governments……...

-END-

But, there is no inflation:

Dear HP Business Development Partner,
Effective, May 1, 2004 HP will increase U.S. list prices for software licenses and bundled first year support by 8% for most OpenView Products. Exceptions are noted below. Standard support renewal prices are not being increased. –END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Federal Reserve added $6 Billion in repos to day April 6th 2004, an action that caused the repo pool to slip ever-so-slightly to $28.58 Billion. As mentioned yesterday this turn around from a falling pool level to a rising one has been different as the bottoming pattern is ragged. That pattern continues today and I continue to interpret it as a fear that the DOW might runaway to the upside "too soon". At this hour (11AM) the DOW tracks down a bit at 10,520.

I see no alteration (at this point) in the repo pattern levitating the DOW through the Spring and Summer, although the other indexes (NASDAQ, S&P 500) should get a little more volatile as they aren't under the control of the Fed's primary dealer's index futures buying. Their actions are in essence sympathetic to the DOW but suffer from normal market forces.

More on government delusion

The Fed has embarked since 1987 and especially since 1994 on a massive gamble to rig a whole series of indexes and indicators, imagining that they can conquer free markets and deliver a perpetual economic golden goose for the US. In doing so, they have lost the ability to see reality and have become delusional to the point that they are today openly falsifying economic reports such as the PPI and employment reports, whose recent big "gains" turn out to originate from part-time immigrant workers.

***

Delusional people waving guns in public are treated with deference by authorities for a time, as an apprehension slowly progresses. So also the economically powerful Fed is being treated with polite deference as smarter investors get their money out of its disintegrating paper-based system. The high-level government disconnect from reality extends even to geopolitics...in Iraq.

Standard military theory developed over millennia stipulates that an occupying combat force needs a 10% ratio to the indigent population. In Iraq that number would be 2.5 million "coalition" troupes since that country has 25 Million people. At last count the "coalition" has around 100,000 actual combat troupes (perhaps an additional 50,000 reservists in various support functions) scattered around Iraq and Kuwait for a ratio of troupe to occupied population of .4%. This is woefully inadequate and it exposes US personnel to needless risks. The current uprising there thus has the real potential to accelerate because the "insurgents" have full freedom of movement. Indeed, it is reasonable to predict within a month or two, the fall of an outpost or two similar to the fall of Ke San in Viet Nam. The archived pictures of burning C-130 re supply planes bull-dozed off the field still resonate. History is repeating itself.

Perhaps collective delusion is a virus that has infected everyone in today's administration?
Mike

From The King Report:

Bob Herbert in the NY Slimes: "What is happening is nothing short of historic. The American workers' share of the increase in national income since November 2001, the end of the last recession, is the lowest on record." Normally workers get 65% of national income and corporations get 15 to 18%. But now labor is getting only 38% while corporations garner 41%. Wow, a productivity miracle! The relentless mega trend is the diminution of the US middle class and living standards. The major reasons include the ascent of Asia (labor arbitrage), bubble policies (always concentrates wealth), and the desperate attempt to perpetuate US socialism even though it has burdened the US with unserviceable debt & obligations (creates dukes & serfs). http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/05/opinion/05HERB.html?th

Many pundits aver the US economy is strong, because corporate earnings are increasing. However, national income is stagnant, below par for a recovery and workers’ incomes are horrid. And it’s the paycheck that counts; as many, including Bush, will learn. A few weeks ago we highlighted IRS data, which shows for 2002 there was no self-employment or small business boom and income is subpar. Soon, 2003 IRS data will be available and the 2003 disposition of national income will be revealed. –END-

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

Hey Bill:
Just caught the exchange release of the open interest figures for yesterday's action in the gold.

Talk about a stunner! I had fully expected to see a further decline in there as some of the weaker hands and the funds spit out some of the those new longs put on near the top. Didn't happen. The break was bought as the open interest figures showed an increase instead and a fairly sizeable one at that. It turns out we had fresh sellers instead.

This is going to get very interesting. From my perspective, something seems to have changed in the gold market. I am sure all of us all too well remember last October and then January of this year as the funds were flushed on these setbacks yanking gold down significantly and doing serious technical damage on the charts. It is still young in the game but if I were a new short seller, I would be worried. Gold has a different "feel" to it this time. I know that is pretty subjective but that is my gut instinct. The open interest is just a confirmation. This new gang that has moved into gold means business and thus far has refused to be stampeded. To see them step up yesterday and buy into the sell off is incredibly encouraging for our side. Yes, again, it is young in the game but this is the first time I can recall that this has happened considering that as of yesterday gold had been clocked nearly $19.00 off the recent peak high in just two short days. People want into this market and are stepping up. If we can hold near these levels and consolidate for a bit, we should see some serious short covering in the not-too-distant future. A close over the $430 level will see it begin.
Dan
dnorcini@earthlink.net

Richard Russell last evening:

I note that the price/earning ratio (trailing earnings) for the S&P is now slightly above 23 while the yield stands at low 1.60%. Those valuations also tell me that investors remains highly bullish on stocks. The "excuse" for these statistics is that interest rates remains historically very low, and the low rates allow for higher P/E ratios. Of course, again, this is a reason why the trend of the bond market (rates) is now so critical. –END-

Much less letting the bullion banks in The Gold Cartel get off Scott Free on their gold fraud:

Playing Favorites

Why Alan Greenspan's Fed lets banks off easy on corporate fraud.

Ronald Fink, CFO Magazine
April 01, 2004

When the Financial Accounting Standards Board released its exposure draft of new accounting rules for special-purpose entities (SPEs), in late 2002, the nation's financial regulators sent FASB chairman Robert H. Herz decidedly mixed signals.

On the one hand, the Securities and Exchange Commission wanted Herz to make the rules effective as soon as possible. SPEs were the prime vehicle for the fraud that brought Enron down, and were widely used by other companies to take liabilities off their balance sheets, obscure their financial condition, and obtain lower-cost financing than they deserved. Not surprisingly, the SEC was anxious to head off other financial fiascos resulting from such abuse.

At the same time, however, the Federal Reserve Board pressed Herz to slow down. That's because the new rules threatened to complicate the lives of the Fed's most important charges: large, multibusiness bank holding companies that happen to earn sizable fees by arranging deals involving SPEs. Stuck between this regulatory rock and hard place, Herz told the Fed and the SEC to get together and work out a timetable that satisfied both constituencies.

http://www.cfo.com/printarticle/0,5317,12866|M,00.html?f=options

-END-

Shenanigans:

Hey Bill,
Great column, I couldn't live without it. By the way, have you noticed that EVERY day, and I mean EVERY day, the closing trade on the current gold futures contract is screwed with. EVERY day, just after the 1:30 close the final print is shown as being $0.30-$0.60 below the final print, even though this trade NEVER shows up in time and sales (in fact, usually the last 20-40 trades are above the level printed). Then, after the 1:35-1:38 trading period after hours, they usually try to throw in another bad print. In really strong up or down days, I've seen this bad print as much as $0.90 below the last trade.
I've never seen anything like this in any market, anywhere, yet it happens in the gold market EVERY day. Absolutely criminal manipulation, no other way of putting it.
Go GATA!
Andrew

As I watch the markets every day and follow the increasing Iraq debacle, I am flabbergasted how the US market just yawns at this complete disaster, while the gold share owners can’t wait to sell out their positions, just when they should be loading the boat. The XAU was up only .65 to 102.42. The HUI fared worse, only managing a pitiful .36 gain to 230.96.

You would think more and more investors would be coming to the conclusion the United States has blundered its way into Iraq, is trapped there, and has no graceful exit. Twenty one brave soldiers dead in four days, rioting all over the place and on the brink of civil war – this is what we have a year after the war is over. AND, we are supposed to turn over control of Iraq to the Iraqis in less than 90 days.

It is hard for me to imagine this fiasco not being very dollar bearish and gold bullish in the weeks and months to come. With so many problems developing in Euroland, more and more investors are will be headed towards the "go to" currency and prudent investment of choice, GOLD!

The Gold Cartel has been huffing and puffing to keep the price of gold subdued. The good news for us is it is their door which is going to blown down.

Gold, silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

Magor

War ja schwer was los im Thread in den vergangenen 40 Stunden.
Muss zuerst selbst die (neuen) GATA Meldungen lesen, und die wichtigsten Meldungen zum Goldgeschehn analysieren. Einige davon werde ich danach noch posten.

Bis nachher

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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Finance & Business

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Apr 7 2004 12:19PM

Russian gold, forex reserves shrink $2.9 bln in March

MOSCOW. April 7 (Interfax) - Russia's gold and foreign-exchange reserves fell $2.92 billion in March in their heaviest drop since August 1998.

The reserves fell 3.38% to $83.398 billion from $86.318 billion during March, and returned to the level seen at the end of January this year, the Central Bank said on its web-site. <>

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Bema stock bows under higher Chile gold mine costs

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/n…&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw

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Newmont, Solitario sign agreement for Peru gold interest

Newmont Peru Ltd., a subsidiary of Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM), signed a $7 million letter of agreement for a 51 percent interest in Wheat Ridge-based Solitario Resources Corp.'s La Tola gold property in southern Peru.

http://denver.bizjournals.com/…/daily26.html?jst=b_ln_hl

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Breaking news

2004-04-07 17:07 GMT:

UK small caps close flat as Cluff Mining drops on cash call

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?t…id=4946167&action=article

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http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/sc…pl?/current/0407046n.html

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APRIL 7, 2004 - 10:19 ET

Richmont Mines Inc. and Mountain Lake Resources Inc.:

Excellent Drilling Results on the Valentine Lake
Property

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News

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Newmont dewatering headed back to court

http://www.elkodaily.com/artic…4/07/news/local/news4.txt

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DRD ups stake in Goldmoney.com

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South African gold mining company Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD DUR) has increased its stake in leading internet-based gold marketing company GoldMoney.com to 14% with a further investment of $1.8 million.

weiter.....

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/con…23,1588493-6078-0,00.html

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http://www.businessreport.co.z…nId=561&fArticleId=395497

Minerals sales slide 6.4% on drop-off in gold and platinum

April 7, 2004

By Sherilee Bridge

Johannesburg - Minerals sales dropped 6.4 percent to R10.1 billion in the three months to January, Statistics SA reported yesterday.

Major contributors to the decrease were the drop-off in platinum group metal (PGM) sales, which were R1.25 billion down on those recorded in the same period last year, gold sales, which were R1.16 billion lower, and other metallic minerals, which showed a R333.5 million drop in sales period on period.

According to Stats SA, gold made a 28.9 percent contribution to total minerals sales during the three-month period. Platinum came a close second, making a 27.8 percent contribution to the total.

Gold, platinum and coal remain South Africa's top three exports.

The country's mineral exports totalled R110 billion in 2003 and made up 34 percent of the value of total South African merchandise exports.

Gold exports totalled R40.9 billion in 2003, PGM exports were R30.5 billion and coal R19.4 billion.

Releasing the January 2004 mining production and sales figures, Stats SA said mining production was a mere 0.1 percent higher in February than it was in the same month a year ago.

But on a three-month view, from December to February, production was a significant 8 percent when compared with the same period last year.

This was thanks to the 12.3 percent rise in non-gold minerals production.

Gold production slid 6.4 percent over the three-month period.

This is in line with industry forecasts of a declining gold production from local mines.

South Africa, the world's biggest gold producer, recorded only a modest 1.5 ton increase in output last year.

This was the first time the country's gold production grew since 1993.

Gold Fields Mineral Services said the annual production losses recorded over the previous eight years were close on 30 tons of gold a year.

Surging demand for metals, particularly in China, was cited as a major factor in Deutsche Bank's decision to boost its 2004 commodities price forecasts.

"Strong Chinese consumption growth, improved demand prospects in Japan and the US, restricted secondary supply and limitations on mine capacity growth are all expected to underpin large deficits in 2004 and 2005," the brokerage arm of the German bank said yesterday.

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King's Bay Gold Closes Non-Brokered Offering

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/sc…pl?/current/0406049n.html

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Fronteer and Placer Dome Commence 2,500 Metre Drilling Program on Portage Gold Property, Red Lake, Ontario

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/sc…pl?/current/0406064n.html

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Capstone Begins a 5,000 Meter Drill Program on its Cozamin Copper-Gold-Silver Project in Mexico

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/sc…pl?/current/0406094n.html

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Randgold's Syama Sale Welcomed by Analysts

http://allafrica.com/stories/200404060160.html