Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

We told you the professionals would get interested at about $500 per ounce gold, and they have. Here are the first mainline analysts to pop up once gold hit $479.00 in electronic trading a week ago.

Prudential technical analyst Ralph Acampora said, “Gold’s spike to 17-year highs should not deter investors from buying gold. He believes gold is headed toward $507 an ounce. Most of the technical indicators suggest that despite an accelerated trend in price, gold is not overbought. Hence, any hesitation is deemed a buying opportunity.” Acampora envisions the price rising even further in the long term as gold continues on an upward path it has followed upward for the last four years.

JP Morgan Chase‘s global strategist Jon Bergtheil sees some interruptions, but over the long term he thinks the price will move steadily higher because gold’s drivers are now a lot more secular and a lot less cyclical. “We now expect gold to breach $500 during 2006 and to hold these new higher levels through the balance of the decade.”

Citigroup analyst John Hill is also bullish for fundamental reasons. “We expect gold to work its way higher and fully expect a test of $500 an ounce in coming months. We believe supply and demand builds a base for the next round of macro/monetary and investment catalysts to enter the market at high price levels.”

Ladies and gentlemen, gold has arrived. Last week it was Citigroup that recommended gold for a move to $500. This week it’s Prudential and JP Morgan Chase. That tells us the central banks are close to being out of gold. The jig is up. That doesn’t mean the gold suppression cartel won’t attack again with derivatives, but it does mean we are on our way.
The pros are catching on. Gold is a protection against the erosion of fiat money and the rise of inflation. It also guards against a decline in stocks, bonds and real estate. 2006 will begin a new fall in the dollar, not only against other currencies, but also versus gold. That trend has already begun in gold and in the other currencies.

We, who saw what pros are beginning to see today, in 2000, have already ridden gold from $275 to almost $480 an ounce and we have made lots of money doing so.

Morgan’s Bergtheil’s comments are telling: the gold drivers are now more about the science of demand and supply than the psychology of fear and uncertainly. That means the cartel is close to being out of gold and we are still some ways away from the fear and uncertainty components.

Now that the mainstream brokerage firms have an interest in gold shares, we could see $850 an ounce for gold in 2006. We charted 62 gold shares in 1992. There are only 14 of those companies till trading. The number of gold shares of all types has shrunk appreciably, which gives the sector lots of leverage. We have a giant three years ahead of us.

It may interest you to know that gold recently hit a 17-year high versus the dollar, a 17-year high versus the euro-D-Mark; and a 9-year high versus the British pound.

Gold has not broken out versus the New Zealand dollar due to a very strong economy and in the case of Canada a strong economy and soaring commodity prices.

The breakout of gold versus most all-important currencies confirms gold’s stature as a bull market.

Under the Washington Agreement for next year only 250 tons of the 500 tons allowed for sale have been spoken for, unless France or Germany decide to sell the yearly sales will be 50% of the allotment.

The World Gold Fantasy Council is considering launching a gold-backed bond.

The WGC Chairman, Pierre Lassonde, President of Newmont Mining says, “there will probably be less central bank selling going forward, especially from Europe.” He noted that every 100 tons of additional demand for gold equates to a rise of about $10.00 an ounce in the gold price during a bull market. He believes gold will hit $525.00 an ounce by early next year.

http://news.goldseek.com/Inter…Forecaster/1128520871.php

Here we go again, expect the unexpected ! :))

GO GATA!!!

The dollar finally hit the skids late yesterday afternoon, a skid which continued into today’s trading sessions around the world. The dollar fell against all major currencies, closing at $88.47, down 1.49. The euro roared up 2.28 to 122.28.

Once again it was easy to spot The Gold Cartel trying to halt gold’s advance along with the dollar drop. The euro would make a high last night, gold would pop, the euro would set back a few ticks and then gold would go right back down. This noticeable cabal effort was accelerated when the US markets opened for business. The dollar was hit hard, yet gold kept retreating after following the dollar weakness. The source of that weakness was "over the counter selling," a.k.a. known as the bullion banks blasting gold for the cabal honchos.

However, as suggested in recent MIDAS commentary, the bums were "overpowered" by massive physical market and spec futures buying. It was furious as gold went up the limit after an hour of trading (the $6 Rule was invoked when bullion gained $7 in fast market conditions). The call went out to all cabal forces to calm the market down at all costs. Soc Gen was the noticeable cabal ally halting the gold advance.

We know the physical market buying was for real as the PM Fix came in at $471.80, up $6.20 over last night’s Comex close. The efforts by the cabal crooks to take the price of bullion back down failed. By the close gold was back at PM Fix levels. However, the cabal’s Bigfoot hand was obvious. Gold was not allowed to take out the highs it made during the first hours, as is nearly always the case when gold surges. Also, the volume was very heavy as The Gold Cartel called on their heavy artillery.

Time to revisit my favorite GATA comment. GATA’s Andrew "Harry Potter" Hepburn stood up at the New Orleans Investment Conference last year and said the intellectual capital in the gold world was in the room (in the GATA camp) and most of the rest of the market commentary was drivel.

Andrew made that soft-spoken comment because unless you understand and deal with the manipulation of the gold market and what The Gold Cartel has done, you really won’t understand the gold market. That has been, and is, the key to why the gold price continues to rally. Other factors are very important to gold, but they are secondary.

Reasons why Andrew was right:

*GATA has called the market better than anyone else for four years now.

*We said gold would make its move as The Gold Cartel ran out of enough available central bank gold to meet the growing demand.

*We said gold could rally $100 and the dollar do nothing. Wasn’t anyone else out there touting such a notion as far as I know.

*Gold has risen around $50 and the dollar has been flat to firm.

*Planet Wall Street and most gold pundits could not explain gold going up like it did. Finally some said gold was rallying because of lack of confidence in the euro. Now the euro takes off and gold goes with it, leaving the MOB even more clueless.

*Then, they said gold was going up because of the oil move up. So oil drops $8 per barrel and gold goes right back up to its recent 18-year highs.

Oh, well.

Here is someone who gets it, who understands what the gold market has been all about the past many years. From Bernie Schaeffer today:

Some potential investor "shoulda coulda wouldas" for 12-18 months from now:

I should have bought gold for under $500/ounce and ignored the "experts" who attributed the early stages of the rally to "speculation" that would soon run its course. I should have focused instead on the fact that gold was still at record low levels relative to the price of crude oil, that U.S. government spending gave all indications of spiraling out of control, and that new trading vehicles such as gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) would allow demand from the general public and the hedge funds to overwhelm the tidy little club that had managed the gold price for several decades

http://www.schaeffersresearch.…bservations.aspx?ID=14270

-END-

Gmorning, sieht fast so aus Edel Man jedoch erwarte das unerwartene.
Heute kommt der employment report,der Markt hat gestern schon negativ reagiert und der Dollar ist gefallen. Lassen wir uns ueberraschen wie der Tag ausgeht.

Anyway,have a nice day

XAX

Hallo,

Silber hat soeben die 7,60 geknackt! Aktuell 7,62!

Damit scheint es eine Bestätigung des Durchdringens der Widerstände (zum gestrigen Schlusskurs) vom Februar + März + Juni bei 7,50 - 7,55 zu geben.

Der Weg sollte frei sein zum Dezember-Hoch von 8.03. Gerade technisch orientierte Fonds und Anleger werden darauf achten bzw. geachtet haben.

Bis dann.

Ja, der Ausbruch bei Silber ist (mindestens Jetzt) da.
Interessant ist dass Gold die Bewegung nicht mitmacht…

Die Preisprognosen für Rohstoffe wie Gold und Erdöl erreichen immer höhere und immer unvorstellbarere Regionen. Beim Gold sprechen die ersten Analysten in Langfristprognosen von Kursen über 1000 Dollar je Feinunze. Und beim Barrel Rohöl hat sich die erstmals von keinem geringeren als Goldman Sachs ins Spiel gebrachte 100-Dollar-Marke als kurz- und langfristiges Ziel längst etabliert.

Das wichtigste fundamentale Argument der Waren-Bullen ist die steigende Nachfrage der Asiaten, die auf ein ausgedünntes Angebot trifft. Längst kommen aber auch andere, eher marktpsychologische Erklärungsansätze hinzu. So etwa das typisch zyklische Investorenverhalten, das nun inmitten der Rallye immer weiteres Kapital an die Rohstoff-Märkte locken könnte. Das ist insbesondere dann der Fall, wenn die großen Vermögensverwalter die bislang noch immer sehr geringe Rohstoff-Quote in ihren Muster-Portefeuilles aufstocken. Allein beim weltweit führenden Geldhaus - der Schweizer UBS - könnte mit jedem Prozentpunkt, um den die Rohstoffe in der Asset-Allokation erhöht werden, ein Mittelzufluß von rund 15 Mrd. Euro auf die Warenmärkte zukommen.

ganzer Artikel - welt.de

.

In den USA gingen im September 35.000 Stellen verloren. Volkswirte rechneten mit einem deutlich höheren Stellenverlust von 150.000. Die Arbeitslosenrate stieg von 4,9 auf 5,1 Prozent, was den Erwartungen entspricht.

Quelle

...aber das könnte möglicherweise die Befürchtung auf steigende Inflation erhöhen. (mehr Beschäftigte = mehr Geld = höhere Preise sind durchsetzbar = Inflationserhöhung)

In einem Bullenmarkt werden die News öfters der Situation "angepasst".
.

Zu „Verschönerung“ von Zahlen:

Almunia wirft EU-Staaten Buchhaltertricks vor

von Wolfgang Proissl, Brüssel
Privatbanken helfen europäischen Regierungen nach Angaben von EU-Währungskommissar Joaquín Almunia dabei, die wahre Höhe ihrer Budgetdefizite durch Buchhaltertricks zu verschleiern. Die Tricks werden Almunia zufolge oft im Rahmen so genannter Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) angewandt.

" Es gibt einige private Institutionen, die Regierungen technische Tricks angeboten haben" , sagte Almunia im Interview mit der Financial Times Deutschland. " Sie sagen: Ihr könnt diese Techniken benutzen, um das öffentliche Defizit zu senken, ohne die Staatsausgaben senken zu müssen." Der Spanier betonte, er kenne mehr als einen solchen Fall. Die Praxis halte zudem bis heute an.

Almunias Äußerungen verstärken die Zweifel an der Zuverlässigkeit von Haushaltsdaten, die europäische Regierungen an die EU-Kommission übermitteln. Die Regierungen sind nach den Maastricht-Kriterien zu einem Budgetdefizit von höchstens drei Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts verpflichtet. Derzeit reißen 10 der 25 Mitgliedsstaaten diese Obergrenze, darunter Deutschland. Besonders im Fall von Griechenland, Italien und Portugal war es in den vergangenen Jahren für Brüssel mitunter schwer, zuverlässige Daten zu erhalten. Vergangenes Jahr war bekannt geworden, dass Griechenland seit 1998 falsche Angaben zum Defizit gemacht hatte und auf Grund dieser Daten in die Währungsunion aufgenommen wurde.

" Glaubwürdigkeit muss verbessert werden"

" Es ist von überragender Bedeutung, dass Staaten bei ihrer Buchführung nicht die kreative Buchführung einiger Privatunternehmen imitieren" , sagte Almunia. " Die Glaubwürdigkeit des statistischen Systems in der Währungsunion ist ein wertvolles Gut. Es muss weiter verbessert werden." Das EU-Statistikamt Eurostat habe deshalb die Zahl der Mitarbeiter erhöht, die nationale Defizitdaten überprüfen, sagte der Kommissar.

Die Buchhaltertricks werden Almunia zufolge oft im Rahmen so genannter Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) angewandt. PPP werden häufig benutzt, um mit staatlichen und privaten Mitteln große Infrastrukturprojekte zu finanzieren. Der Währungskommissar betonte, es handle sich dabei nicht um illegale Aktivitäten. " Aber wir können solche Operationen nicht als defizitmindernd akzeptieren" . Almunia lehnte es ab, Namen verwickelter Ländern oder Banken zu nennen.

Aus der FTD vom 06.10.2005
© 2005 Financial Times Deutschland, © Illustration: AP

Everything is just fine in the US

Only 35.000 Jobs lost instead the expected 175.000.

That moves the market.

What a ""figure"" can do, its Yahoo !

Enjoy your weekend.

XAX