Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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    Lustiges Foto.
    Nach dem Motto: Es ist nicht immer einfach,den Stier bei den Hörnern zu fassen! :]


    Jaja die Crimex,da kommen ganz andere Gedanken in den Sinn........ X( X(

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    China's growth projection to boost commodities
    G. Chandrashekhar


    Mumbai Oct 12


    CHINA'S commodities bull story which has held everyone's attention in recent years, is far from over. In the near future, the Asian giant's growth could be even stronger than the scorching rate so far.


    Support for this extremely optimistic view is drawn from China's Communist party endorsement of doubling the country's GDP per capita by 2010 as compared with the year 2000.


    China has been one of the key drivers of the commodity market in the recent years. With economic buoyancy, rapid industrialisation and urbanisation came a strong demand for a wide range of commodities including energy (crude), base metals (copper, zinc) and agricultural goods (vegetable oil, soyabean, sugar, cotton).


    The latest report of China's Communist Party plenum endorsing the country's goal of doubling its GDP per capita has sent a fresh wave of excitement and apprehension in commodity markets. The endorsement would imply a per capita real GDP figure of $7,687 (purchasing power parity adjusted).


    Strong manufacturing and construction activity has driven Chinese metals' demand and continues to do so as reflected in robust fixed asset investment and industrial production.


    Although demand for copper has risen substantially over the years, yet the per capita demand is still considerably low vis-à-vis Asian neighbours such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
    Despite being a large producer, importer and consumer, China's per capita consumption of many commodities is modest primarily because of a large population (1.3 billion), modest income levels and large rural population.
    With the country set to pursue the objective of doubling GDP per capita, demand for a whole range of commodities — agricultural and industrial — is sure to soar.


    For instance, copper consumption of a mere 1.9 kg per capita would more than double to 4.6 kg per capita by 2010 which would mean 6.3 million tonnes per annum.


    In case of energy too, of which China is the world's second largest consumer, demand will more than double in the next 20 years, with extension of the energy infrastructure boosting aluminium and copper demand, experts assert.


    For the world market that is already reeling under a bull run in many commodities, the latest China story is sure to provide a further shot in the arm. The report is highly supportive to prices.


    What is unclear at this point in time is to what extent it would impact the widely expected global economic slowdown due to high crude prices and what would be exchange rate policy China would follow.

    jaa, aber irgendwie, wenn ich überlege - und zurückschaue,
    kommt mir China heute wie die USA am Beginn der 20er Jahre vor.


    - produktives Power-House
    - spekulative Blasen am Markt


    parallel dazu kommt mir Ami-Land wie Europa in den 20ern vor,


    - shop till you drop
    - die Party feiern, der Kater kommt später sowieso
    - Deflation is watching you (hidden behind inflation)


    offen ist für mich in diesem Szenario: Europas Rolle in dieser Tragikkomödie


    Germoney

    As a general rule, it is foolish to do just what other people are doing,
    because there are almost sure to be too many people doing the same thing.
    William Stanley Jevons (1835-1882)

    In this regard The Gold Cartel is going all out to stop gold from moving higher on this gold friendly news, for if gold were to move up on the day it would make it nearly impossible to hold the 4.5% 10-year T note level. The cabal knows the technical condition of gold is weak per yesterday and they have the dollar soaring. It is their time to make their move to try and turn some more funds into sellers (so they can cover some of their shorts).


    Gold just closed. A fabulous day for our camp. Yesterday I mentioned that gold could drop $6 to $10 and that ought to be it. There are just too many waiting and willing buyers out there. At today’s low, gold was down $6.10. For it to rally $3.50 off this level is a stunning defeat for The Gold Cartel. Yep, that ought to be it on the downside. The move up from here could be both stunning and dramatic. The bad guys are reeling behind the scenes.


    There is no telling how high gold could go in a very short-term time frame. The bullion banking bums in the cabal have their hands full with the markets. Between rising rates and the Refco mess, there is a real shot we could see a couple of derivatives neutron bombs go off in the weeks to come. Once again, the bad guys are short thousands and thousands of tonnes of gold. They are trapped and cannot get out without sending the price up hundreds of dollars per ounce. HUNDREDS?


    Should the US financial markets go into convulsions, some of these shorts will be FORCED OUT, by credit committees. This could get very wild, VERY fast.


    When Katrina hit, The Gold Cartel orchestrated a gold take down of $6. 50,000 specs dumped their longs. Gold then rallied $40 per ounce. We fell $6 today, the difference being with so much new macro fund buying, the crooks couldn’t hold the price down. The price fixers are in the DEEPEST of trouble.


    The gold open interest fell 3907 contracts to 366,937, as some funds and an ETF pitched.


    Silver held up well all day today and did not plunge like it has so many times over the years.


    The silver open interest rose 1583 contracts to 136,018.


    Before silver made its recent 50 cent advance, MIDAS mentioned to The Café my smeller told me something was going on which was very positive for silver. So far so good.


    Late last week our STALKER source talked of Saudi buying, saying they wanted physical not paper and were going to store the silver in Saudi Arabia, NOT London. Today, this source said they had not bought the physical yet. This is very valuable news and I believe it to be very explosive. Why:


    The Saudis are smart and playing the market. They have told the London players they do not want paper. However, I believe that is just what they have been doing. BUYING FUTURES, which is why the silver open interest keeps going up. It is also why silver is trading differently than it used to.


    The smartest traders in the world will go into the futures market first to price their coming physical market purchases. This way the pros and the market have yet to see the soaring demand about to goose the market. Once the Saudis have worked out their storage for silver, they will load up on cash silver. The tiny silver market will soar. As they are nearing the end of what they want to secure, they will unload the futures in lieu of their physical supply.
    This should be exciting to watch, if the silver situation is as I see it.


    LATE MARKET DEVELOPMENT:


    My rant earlier was how ridiculous the dollar move up was. Made no sense except citing coordinated central bank intervention. Seems that intervention has run its course. The dollar has sunk like a stone in water very late in the trading day.


    The December dollar closed at 89.61, up .16, after making a 90.28 high. The spot euro, still trading after the dollar trading closed, rose to 120.31, after making a 119.14 low. Both the yen and pound closed modestly higher after taking early drubbings.



    Should the central bank intervention fail, and the dollar collapse like it ought, good grief! The Gold Cartel, PPT, Fed, Bush Administration, and the general investing public will be in even worse trouble than mentioned above.


    My guess is we have seen the lows in gold and silver. The risk/reward ratio from here on in is fabulous. Literally dollars on the downside and, in the case of gold, hundreds of dollars on the upside. Investment in gold will soon begin to go off the charts.

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

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    Wenn wir die GATA nicht hätten! ;)
    Die müsste schlichtweg neu erfunden werden.


    Leider wird die von den vielen Hasenfüssen und Lemmingen nicht gelesen,
    die immer wieder nach den widerlichen Aktionen der Manipulateure umfallen.


    Man kann nicht genug betonen, daß die FED nichts anderes ist als ein Kartell einiger US-Großbanken.


    In dem ganzen Umfeld hält sich Silber gut.
    Hoffentlich ist der Spuk bald vorüber.
    Dann wird 500 $ bei Gold fällig! :]


    Grüsse

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    Go For Mining Stocks, Says UBS
    October 14 2005 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)


    In the past two months UBS has made significant changes to its global economic forecasts, with higher oil price forecasts leading to lower growth estimates apart from China, where growth forecasts -on the contrary- have been increased.


    As a result, and following recent weakness in share prices in the sector, the broker suggests the mining sector is offering good value.


    Diversified mining remains the broker’s number one pick :] in the resources sector on 3, 12 and more than 12-month timeframes, the positive view a combination of long-term constrained supply and an expected increase in intensity of use.


    While rating near the bottom of its sectoral picks on a three-month view, Energy is the broker’s second best sectoral pick ;) on a more than 12-month view, followed by base metals.


    While commodity Chemicals rates highly in a 3-month outlook, longer-term the broker suggests it is likely to produce the poorest performance of the resources categories.


    In the broker’s top 15 global resource stock list there are six mining companies, namely Anglo American, BHP Billiton (BHP), Lonmin, Rio Tinto (RIO), Teck Cominco and Zinifex (ZFX).

    Diese rumhupferei um die 470 nervt mich schoen langsam.
    Da sollte mal eine klare Richtung kommen, um 15 Uhr kommt das PPT, mal schaun wo die heute wieder hindruecken.


    Habe den obrigen Report gelesen Edel Man, besonders gefreut hat mich diese Absaetze: :))
    Theoretisch liege ich richtig, genau das was ich mache und investiert habe.


    As the dollar continues to decline in value, an obvious investment strategy is to “short” the dollar. One way to short the dollar is to borrow dollars and buy hard assets.



    More than ever, gold and gold equities will continue to prosper in the face of the declining dollar and uncertainties with regard to the U.S. economy.
    It also means that metal prices will remain at a level at which the producing mining companies will develop new mines. That being the case, the junior exploration companies will play an important role in the process of finding and developing the mines of tomorrow, and thereby provide the potential for exceptional returns for investors.


    We have seen many important mineral discoveries. Recent grassroots discoveries include the Eleanor gold discovery of Virginia Gold, the Corani silver discovery by Bear Creek Mining, Silvercorp’s Ying silver deposit and Brazauro’s TZ gold deposit. Other companies have expanded and upgraded early stage discoveries to create valuable deposits. For example, NovaGold's Donlin Creek and Galore Creek deposits, Regalito’s copper deposit, Western Prospector’s uranium deposit. All of those discoveries and advances have resulted in big gains in shareholder value.


    Many investors are fixated on metal prices as the driving force for mining shares. Certainly, moves in the metal prices impact share prices across the board. However, the biggest moves in share prices come from companies creating value through exploration and development results. As long as metal prices remain above long term trends, mining companies will develop new mines and many of those mines will come from the juniors. Regardless of the metal prices, discoveries and advances in deposits will generate shareholder value.


    There is every reason to believe that the strong metal prices will be with us for at least a few years. However, investors may find it frustrating to simply own a company exposed to a metal and then wait for a rising metal price to add value.

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    Moin Aladin


    Der Artikel ist rundrum gut,hab meine Begeisterung im Zaum gehalten.


    Zu heute :wenn die rd.470 hält,wärs doch nicht schlecht,
    gegenüber dem, was so manche Eggheads verzapften.


    Meinetwegen noch ein paar Tage,umso kräftiger wäre ein Aufschwung.


    Grüsse

    You would figure with all this bad news, the public would have discovered the one asset that has held up in the face of the storm - gold. But alas, we are still in the early stages of the gold bull market, as 99% of the general public has no idea what has been happening with the yellow metal. Perhaps a push through $500/oz will attract some small amount of attention, :D but we expect this stealth bull market to continue for quite a while. Oil & natural gas have been attracting the attention of the masses, which makes sense as these two commodities impact our day-to-day lives more than any other natural resource. But once the economy breaks, attention will shift to the viability of the financial system - and gold bullion is the ultimate safe haven for any systemic shocks the economy may suffer.



    http://www.321gold.com/editori…dge/texashedge101405.html

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

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    Aladin @


    Paßt genau in unsere Philosophie: C$, aber auch in Aktien!!
    _______________________________________________


    Thursday, October 13, 2005, 7:52:00 PM EST


    By Gold or go Loonie?


    Author: Jim Sinclair


    Dear Jim:

    I have had reasonable "luck" with the Euro in the last 4 years. Now I am trying to decide long term which might be the better item, gold coins or a Canadian dollar position. Can you help me?

    CIGA Son of John

    Dear Son of John:

    We have to be both fundamentally and technically correct in order to have comfort in a long term investment position. We also need to define the character of the investment we are considering.

    Gold coins as long term positions are bedrock investments made with free liquidity. Since I believe gold will go to $1,650, there is a multiple that makes gold coins attractive as I see it.

    All currencies are paper relative to each other. That means they are valued according to their relationship with all other paper currencies and thence to gold itself.

    I have often expressed my problem with the euro as its "success" is primarily based on a great public relations program that named a currency after nothing at all. It held well until the dummies in Brussels - not realizing what they did to make the euro a success - tried to make the euro into a currency representing a real country through political means.

    Can you imagine that the leaders of the European economic community never realized why the euro was doing so well? These enlightened leaders assumed it was their effort that was being reflected in the success of the euro.


    The euro represents no country as there is no country called Euro. When they tried to make a country EURO by the adoption of a political constitution, the basket of euro currency was revealed to be what it actually was - garbage. That made the dollar look good in comparison.


    Now the dollar egotists are about to blow up in an inflation they do not understand nor have they anticipated. As a result, gold will outpace both the euro and the dollar. In time, due to levels of debt, the dollar will take the position as the low man on the totem pole again, making the euro a higher class piece of garbage. Let's hope that the citizens of virtual Euroland contain the geniuses in Brussels, making them stick with an economic union rather than feathering their political nests by inventing a new country named Euroland they will run into the ground.

    The Cando (Canadian dollar or "Loonie") has long term positive technicals and with its huge oil reserves (second only to Saudi Arabia) is trading as a petro-currency. So it will outperform the US dollar. In years to come, the fact that Canada has the most potable water on earth will compete with petroleum as reasons for owning the Loonie. In my opinion, where you must carry a currency position, make it primarily the Cando.

    Regards,
    Jim

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    Zitat

    Original von Aladin
    - gold. But alas, we are still in the early stages of the gold bull market, as 99% of the general public has no idea what has been happening with the yellow metal.


    Das ewige Lied: Das größte Trägheitsmoment ist das menschliche!! :]


    Grüsse

    Zitat

    Die US-Verbraucherpreise stiegen im September gegenüber dem Vormonat um saisonbereinigt angepasst 1,2 Prozent. Dies meldete heute das US-Arbeitsministerium. Dies stellt den größten Anstieg seit mehr als 25 Jahren dar.


    Quelle : Boerse Go


    Das langfristige Bild stimmt. Gold ist in allererster Linie eine Anlage gegen den Kaufkraftverlusst des Papiergeldes.

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