Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Ich bin mom. zu ca. 60 % in pysischem gold und silber sowie 40 % in Goldminenfonds investiert DWS goldminen, PEHQ, Merryl Linch II goldmines etc..


    Da ich gerade Meine Lebensversicherungen gekündigt habe, wird bald noch mal ein schönes Sümmchen frei. Hierfür suche ich noch das ein oder andere Papier (Aktie) . Nur weiß ich noch nicht so recht, was tun.
    Evtl. gibts ja hier mal ein paar Tipps. Wäre echt nett.


    Carlos

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    valueman et All


    FR + 9,5% :D :D
    SSO, WTZ,SLW,MFL + usw :]


    Grüsse


    "Die Märkte haben nie unrecht, die Menschen oft." Jesse Livermore, 20.Jh.

    "Die Demokratie ist das Paradies der Schreier und Schwätzer, Phraseure, Schmeichler und Schmarotzer, die jedem sachlichen Talent weit mehr den Weg verlegen, als dies in einer anderen Verfassungsform vorkommt." E.von Hartmann

    Dieser Beitrag ist eine persönliche Meinung gem. Art.5 Abs.1 GG und Urteil des BVG 1 BvR 1384/16

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    CARLOS
    Willkommen im Forum!


    Nix für ungut!
    wenn Du etwas im Forum rumstöberst,findest Du jede Menge Anregungen.
    Wenn Du Dein Risikoprofil zB.festgelegt hast,engt sich der Kreis der Kandidaten ein.


    Gezielt gefragt,was Du wo willst,kommen auch sicher gern direkte Tips.


    Guck mal zB. in denThread "Juniors aus Kanada" rein.
    Da sind heute zB.anderweitig ein paar Tips gegeben worden.


    Grüsse


    "Die Märkte haben nie unrecht, die Menschen oft." Jesse Livermore, 20.Jh.

    "Die Demokratie ist das Paradies der Schreier und Schwätzer, Phraseure, Schmeichler und Schmarotzer, die jedem sachlichen Talent weit mehr den Weg verlegen, als dies in einer anderen Verfassungsform vorkommt." E.von Hartmann

    Dieser Beitrag ist eine persönliche Meinung gem. Art.5 Abs.1 GG und Urteil des BVG 1 BvR 1384/16

    Hallo Edelmann,


    danke zunächst mal -- für die freundliche Aufnahme. Anhand meiner Investitionen erkennst Du sicherlich daß ich nicht ganz unbescholten bin, was Edel-Metalle angeht.


    Aber das war schon der erste gute Tip mit den Juniors. :)


    Übrigens: Bin erstaunt über die Stärke von Silber. Schießt das jetzt bald durch?!



    CARLOS

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    Zitat

    Original von CARLOS

    Übrigens: Bin erstaunt über die Stärke von Silber. Schießt das jetzt bald durch?!


    Wenn wir das wüßten, würden wir entsprechend disponieren. ;)


    Es spricht vieles dafür IMO, daß sich Silber besser entwickelt als Gold.
    Aber,persönliche Meinung.


    Habe deshalb in meinem Depot Silberaktien höher gewichtetals Gold,nur als Info.


    Grüsse


    "Die Märkte haben nie unrecht, die Menschen oft." Jesse Livermore, 20.Jh.

    "Die Demokratie ist das Paradies der Schreier und Schwätzer, Phraseure, Schmeichler und Schmarotzer, die jedem sachlichen Talent weit mehr den Weg verlegen, als dies in einer anderen Verfassungsform vorkommt." E.von Hartmann

    Dieser Beitrag ist eine persönliche Meinung gem. Art.5 Abs.1 GG und Urteil des BVG 1 BvR 1384/16

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    Aladin


    Interessante Überlegungen von Hoye.
    Etwas sehr optimistisch IMO.


    Aber wie klingt es so schön:


    "Nichts ist unmöglich!".... :]


    Grüsse


    "Die Märkte haben nie unrecht, die Menschen oft." Jesse Livermore, 20.Jh.

    "Die Demokratie ist das Paradies der Schreier und Schwätzer, Phraseure, Schmeichler und Schmarotzer, die jedem sachlichen Talent weit mehr den Weg verlegen, als dies in einer anderen Verfassungsform vorkommt." E.von Hartmann

    Dieser Beitrag ist eine persönliche Meinung gem. Art.5 Abs.1 GG und Urteil des BVG 1 BvR 1384/16

    Friday, October 14, 2005, 12:14:00 PM EST


    Jim’s Mail Box: Dan Makes a Good Point


    The players in the currency markets of today have become the new mushrooms in the trading world. They live in the dark and feed on BS. :D


    In times past, forex traders were among the most sophisticated on the planet when it came to a firm grasp of fundamentals. That is NO LONGER the case.



    In almost every trading or investing journal nowadays, one finds ads for trading the forex markets. There has been a literal boom in that sector as novice after novice comes aboard seeking easy riches and fast gains. (Just read the ads – if you had known this you could already have retired and bought that private island in the South Pacific!).
    What you now have is the same madness called momentum trading that has moved from stocks into the forex markets. People simply chase motion – they do not ask why nor do they care.


    Remember, they have been brainwashed by the technical analyst gurus into believing that the study of fundamentals is unnecessary because all of that information is already in the price. This is the new breed of forex traders and they are as clueless as the stock players of 1999-2000 were, mainly because many of them simply moved from stock to currency trading.


    Years ago, an experiment was performed that attempted to demonstrate the effect that suggestion or peer pressure has on the minds of people. If I recall correctly, the subjects were shown a series of lines of various lengths and were asked to match up the ones with the same lengths. Most of them were easily able to do this.


    What was interesting, however, became evident when the variable of peer pressure was added to the experiment. One of the conductors of the experiment applied pressure to the test subjects, questioning their judgment and actually telling them that the lines of the same length, which they had paired, were actually different lengths and that they had made a mistake.


    He was able to actually convince some subjects to pair the wrong length lines together and had them believe that they were the same length. In other words, they went against their own better judgment in favor of the peer pressure even though it was the wrong decision.


    I believe that is exactly what is taking place in today’s markets and also is the tactic used by those who wish to manipulate or control the markets. By repeating the same cockamamie day after day after day, they have duplicated the effect of this experiment and have succeeded in reducing otherwise intelligent people into nothing more than laboratory rats who will throw their own better judgment out of the window simply because they see prices moving up when their own judgment tells them that they should be heading down.


    Eventually, their own convictions are so shaken that they simply follow the rest of the mob and pair up the lines of disparate length calling them equal. They call “UP”, “DOWN”, and “BLACK”, “WHITE” and will vent our their spleen at you if you dare to tell them any different.


    This is how mob psychology affects the masses. Rest assured that this madness will not continue indefinitely. As was said many years ago when studying manias, “people lose their judgment collectively but only come to their senses slowly and individually.”


    Best wishes,


    Dan Norcini

    That was this morning. Written by 9:15 CDT.


    As has happened so often of late, the shenanigans of the US Orwellian market manipulators didn't get too far. The orchestrated instantaneous, ludicrous response to the numbers held the fort and that was about it. Too much of the smart money in the world is seeing through this bogus market manipulation scheme. As recently mentioned, this smart money is waiting for its move and then fading the Gold Cartel and PPT.


    How about that silver! After falling ten cents early in sympathy with the gold trouncing, silver crept back quietly. As mentioned here so many times recently, silver is trading completely differently than in years past. It does not want to go down and is trading as if the something big is up.


    While it rallied quietly off its lows during most of the Comex trading session, then going up on the day late, it rocketed on the close, going up 15 cents on the day before settling 13 cents higher.


    The move higher this afternoon came out of nowhere and is vintage silver. Silver is like a mule. It does what it wants to do and when it wants to, as you have heard me mention often. The biggest silver moves of all occur when silver moves on its own, regardless of what is occurring in other markets.


    December silver
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C5


    Could this be the Arab silver play MIDAS has brought to your attention? Today’s stunning late move up fits into that sort of a scenario. Makes all the sense in the world.


    There is something else which could be going on or happening concurrently. Many of the silver bulls, like me, have long touted the notion the market should take off because of the continuing supply/demand deficit. But, it never has. At some point it will and this might be IT! If so, there are substantial shorts who will not be able to cover at anywhere near these price levels. If the Arabs are causing this, the major shorts are toast.


    One of these coming days silver will rally around a $1 in a single Comex trading session.


    One additional point to make on silver. The market popped nearly 8 cents on the closing bell. Many shorts were stunned and many had no time to cover. The Comex floor said if DEC silver closed above $7.81, it would fly next week, and a close above $7.83 would clinch that. The floor then told my people, "That will never happen because it is too late in the day," as it was trading around $7.78 with 3 minutes left in trading when this comment was made. DEC closed at $4.86.


    What silver did late is VERY rare and further suggests something extraordinary is up. That assessment is supported technically by silver putting in an outside day key reversal to the upside, setting up the probability for some serious fireworks next week.



    The silver open interest went up again yesterday by 711 contracts to 136,729 a new multi-decade high, which gives further indications somebody of size is in there making a play for silver. To do so one must have designs on the physical market. This fits into our Arab story. The pieces of the puzzle all fit so far. Next week could be spectacular.


    While gold was $5 lower at one point, it would not fold and was gradually drawn back up because of the strength in silver. A precipitously falling dollar was having little impact on gold; while not crashing, it was still not far off its lows. Late in the day the short locals were forced to cover.


    Two days in a row The Gold Cartel had gold on the ropes and it came right back. Can never recall that happening over the last 7 years of watching this market so closely.


    The reasons to own gold are going off the charts and this should be reflected in a soaring price in the weeks ahead. The gold open interest only fell 557 contracts to 366,380, which confirms there were these new buyers waiting for the break to jump on board. This must be so because a fall like yesterday could have given us a drop of 10 to 20,000 contracts. We know there was huge fund selling, and Gold Cartel short-covering would further reduce the OI, not keep it relatively steady. The Gold Cartel is in BIG TROUBLE.


    Any technically overbought condition is being worked off easily.

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    The oracle of Denver speaks, and he's usually right


    Brendan Ryan
    Guru Martin Murenbeeld delivered his annual forecast at last month's Denver Gold Forum, adding his authoritative voice to those predicting gold will top US$500/oz in the coming year.


    What sets Murenbeeld apart from most commentators is his conservative and rigorous econometric approach, and the fact that he tends to get it right. For the past two years Murenbeeld's outlook, delivered at the gold mining industry's most important international conference, has been bang-on.


    For 2005 he not only got it right, he predicted the average price within $2. The modest and softly spoken Murenbeeld - who stresses he is not a "gold bug" - says: "We were darn lucky. Hopefully we will do as well for 2006."


    For the year ahead Murenbeeld is forecasting a probability-weighted average of $502/oz but adds that "gold could clearly go substantially higher in the event the dollar plunges and monetary reflation comes early. We are split between a mildly bullish and a more aggressively bullish projection. Our high price scenario has been given nearly as much weight as our baseline scenario."


    Murenbeeld's high price g scenario allocates a 43% probability to gold averagin$565/oz in the year ahead :))compared with a 47% probability for $470. He tags the outlooks for the US dollar and the US economy as the key reasons.


    "I am a dollar bear. The US current-account deficit by the second quarter of this year was in excess of 6% of GDP or nearly $800bn. If [the events of] 1985-1987 are a guide, then the dollar has at least another 15% -25% to fall.


    "The US trade balance deficit had mushroomed to more than US$700bn by the end of July. The implication is that the dollar's exchange value is uncompetitive at its level of recent years."


    Murenbeeld believes the Chinese renminbi is "grossly undervalued" and has to rise "lest protectionist forces in the US plunge the international economy into a dangerous trade war".


    The recent upvaluation of the renminbi was a start but nowhere near enough. He believes the renminbi must recover much of the 34% by which it was devalued against the dollar in 1993.


    Murenbeeld says that, up till now, the dollar has been supported by capital inflows from central banks - in particular in Asia. They buy dollars with their own currency to prevent the dollar from falling and their own currencies from rising. Private investors have also bought large amounts of dollars.


    According to Murenbeeld: "This support for the dollar cannot continue indefinitely. Be patient. Something is going to break this and the dollar will inevitably have to decline further."


    He says the crucial component of US debt is household debt, which is at record levels, as is the household debt service burden, despite low interest rates. The household savings rate is negative: he links this to soaring house prices, which are being turned by many into retirement savings vehicles.


    "This is high risk in my opinion because it is dangerous in the event that house prices flatten out or decline."


    His bottom-line assessment is that the debt situation is likely to result in monetary reflation, which means higher inflation, which is good for gold.


    Murenbeeld stresses that consumer demand for physical gold is rising, despite the higher prices. "I am bullish on India and China. Per capita gold consumption will go up and that's what counts."


    Murenbeeld also believes that Opec countries may use rising "petro dollar" income to buy more gold, which is a politically "neutral" currency.


    "The last time Opec had significant surplus petro dollars, gold spiked to a record high in 1980. In 1973-1981 Opec added 270 t gold to its reserves. To bring its gold reserves up to 15%, Opec would have to buy 50m oz, costing $22,5bn. This would not be a hardship now Opec's foreign exchange reserves exceed $200bn."


    Murenbeeld expects newly mined supply to fall while central bank sales - the biggest supply threat - are capped until September 2009 by the new Central Bank Agreement.


    Financial mail
    14 October 2005


    "Die Märkte haben nie unrecht, die Menschen oft." Jesse Livermore, 20.Jh.

    "Die Demokratie ist das Paradies der Schreier und Schwätzer, Phraseure, Schmeichler und Schmarotzer, die jedem sachlichen Talent weit mehr den Weg verlegen, als dies in einer anderen Verfassungsform vorkommt." E.von Hartmann

    Dieser Beitrag ist eine persönliche Meinung gem. Art.5 Abs.1 GG und Urteil des BVG 1 BvR 1384/16

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    Äusserst lesenswert!
    Druck ich aus;Hamilton ist eigentlich immer richtig zur Stelle.


    Stelle den Schlussabsatz rein,der alles sagt:
    ____________________________________


    There is nothing that begets new gold investment demand faster than rising gold prices, highlighted by today's global gold highs. No matter which part of the world you call home, you can invest in this young secular gold bull and profit tremendously as it continues galloping ahead in the coming years.
    ______________________________


    :]Grüsse


    "Die Märkte haben nie unrecht, die Menschen oft." Jesse Livermore, 20.Jh.

    "Die Demokratie ist das Paradies der Schreier und Schwätzer, Phraseure, Schmeichler und Schmarotzer, die jedem sachlichen Talent weit mehr den Weg verlegen, als dies in einer anderen Verfassungsform vorkommt." E.von Hartmann

    Dieser Beitrag ist eine persönliche Meinung gem. Art.5 Abs.1 GG und Urteil des BVG 1 BvR 1384/16

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    Friday, October 14, 2005, 6:25:00 PM EST


    The Day of the Rose Colored Glasses!
    Author: Jim Sinclair


    Today, we look at the world through rose-coloured glasses and this is what we see:

    1. Everything is fine on the inflation front because no one needs things like food and energy.


    2. Everything is fine regarding the US Trade Deficit because it did not grow as much as expected.


    3. Everything is fine at Refco because it cannot be allowed to fail but in all probability will end up a name only with other entities taking over their business.


    4. Consumer Confidence is at the lowest level in 13 years but that's OK because it is all weather related.


    5. The oil price is off and talking heads now see that as a permanent feature so everything is OK in the energy sector.


    6. Retail sales, although down, were just dandy - if you exclude autos. Sure, why not exclude autos, then clothes, then groceries and of course don't forget to exclude appliances.


    The Dow closed 70 points higher today and the financial TV commentators were simply giddy because all is fine in La-La land. :D


    "Die Märkte haben nie unrecht, die Menschen oft." Jesse Livermore, 20.Jh.

    "Die Demokratie ist das Paradies der Schreier und Schwätzer, Phraseure, Schmeichler und Schmarotzer, die jedem sachlichen Talent weit mehr den Weg verlegen, als dies in einer anderen Verfassungsform vorkommt." E.von Hartmann

    Dieser Beitrag ist eine persönliche Meinung gem. Art.5 Abs.1 GG und Urteil des BVG 1 BvR 1384/16

    Zitat

    Original von Screener
    Ihr seid regelrecht fanatisch in gold. :rolleyes:


    was macht ihr wenn es in einigen jahren bei mehreren tausend dollar steht ?


    einfach so verkaufen und dann tun als hat man nichts mehr mit am hut ?


    Its full moon , Oh not you again.


    You pass it on, to whom ever ! ;)


    You keep the Fiat . :D


    We stay with the physical, it magical. :P


    XAX

    Zitat

    Original von Screener
    Ihr seid regelrecht fanatisch in gold. :rolleyes:


    was macht ihr wenn es in einigen jahren bei mehreren tausend dollar steht ?


    einfach so verkaufen und dann tun als hat man nichts mehr mit am hut ?


    Lieber Screener,
    bleib doch beim Lesen und verzichte aufs Schreiben.
    Du kannst eine ganze Menge dazulernen.
    Deine Fragen beantworten sich von selbst.

    Ich habe nicht von irgendwelchen sicherheitsgurten gesprochen sondern gefragt was ihr macht wenn gold in einigen jahr bei 2000 dollar oder mehr steht ?


    eine grenzenlose euphorie herrscht dann vor und ihr wisst die letzten 10-15 jahre alles richtig gemacht zu haben.


    dann verlasst ihr tatsächlich den markt und sucht nach anderen investmentmöglichkeiten ?


    ich glaube eher das kommt so wie beim neuen markt. die meisten werden den ausstieg verpassen.


    denkt an meine worte !

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