Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Ist das die erste Reaktion ???

Die Jungs von der Crimex kommen gleich....um 15 Uhr !

Auch eine Meinung : Es haelt nicht lange ueber 500 USD

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=2948

Eric Fry, reporting from the city that adores Ben
Bernanke...

Late last week, one adoring Rude Awakening fan wrote:

"Tell Eric to get to the point of what the good doctor
[Richebacher] said and stop yakking about his 'good old
days.' Do not stretch this series of articles out. Just get
to the important points. I ain't got time to wait, for
days, for him to get to the point or to read through a
buncha crap. thanx."

Dear adoring reader, we want you to know that we have heard
your complaint. So without (much) further ado, we will "get
to the point of what the good doctor said."

But we should warn all readers that Dr. Kurt's insights and
opinions are suitable for mature audiences only. The
following material may contain scenes, depictions and
descriptions of graphic macro-economic content that may be
very disturbing to real estate agents, Wall Street
employees and all other congenital optimists. Reader
discretion is advised.

That said, the bearer of bad tidings is often the very best
friend or ally that one may ever have. I value, for
example, the guy who yells "Fire!" when he smells smoke
more than the guy who says, "It's a nice night. I think
I'll step outside for some fresh air."

Sometimes, you need to know there's a fire.

Maybe that's why Dr. Richebacher's readership includes many
of the world's most successful investors and financial
market observers.

Even though your editor does not number among the world's
most successful investors, he considers the Richebacher
Letter to be the single most important item he reads every
month.

Dr. Kurt is not a preacher, but he speaks like one. He
presents his ideas with more passion, more fire, and even
more brimstone, than any self-respecting 17th century
Puritan minister. It is too late for America to repent of
its economic sins, Dr. Kurt laments. But individual
Americans may yet save themselves.

Even if one does not agree with Dr. Kurt's dire
conclusions, one may still benefit from his insights. No
one tells it like Dr. Kurt, as you will now observe....

America's Leading the World to Financial Ruin!

So says Dr. Richebacher, the world's greatest living
economist...

And after seeing the REAL numbers - the ones mainstream
"analysts" never even look at - I have to say he's
absolutely right.

The brutal truth is that the U.S. economy is a brittle
house of cards.

But you don't have to blindsided when it all comes crashing
down - not if you've got the facts - and the expertise to
parlay them into major profits...

http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/RCH/WRCHFA02

-------------------------

NO WAY OUT
By Eric J. Fry

"I'm a faithful reader of your monthly newsletter," your
editor began his recent half-day discussion with Dr.
Richebacher in Cannes, France. "And I accept your grim
diagnosis for the U.S. economy. But I don't want to accept
your equally grim prognosis. I understand, for example,
that our economic imbalances are considerable. But I don't
want to believe that they are insurmountable. Isn't there
some way for us Americans to tip-toe away from the
precipice of disaster?"

"No," Dr. Kurt answered bluntly. "That's not possible. The
imbalances are simply too great."

During the next six hours, your editor learned all the
gritty details of America's economic predicament...

Richebacher: One has to realize that all the increase in
American consumer spending is borrowed. And it is borrowed
against rising house prices. In 2001, Greenspan replaced
the bursting stock market bubble with the housing bubble.
But soon he'll be faced with a bursting housing bubble. The
only question is when. But it comes suddenly, yah.

Asset prices are the key to the US economy. As long as
asset prices are high, there seems to be ample liquidity in
the economy. But as asset prices fall, the liquidity
disappears. Americans think they are liquid. They aren't
liquid. Liquid is a person who has savings. We must realize
that the appearance of great liquidity is merely the result
of highly leveraged asset prices. And those can collapse.

Fry: Well, let's hope that asset prices merely deflate
gracefully, rather than collapse.

Richebacher: I don't think that's possible. Excess credit
is the only thing supporting asset prices...Greenspan
recently observed that American consumers have weathered
the energy price hikes very well. But that's only because
they borrowed crazier and crazier. That's not the kind of
resilience you should applaud. It's as if he said, "We
succeeded in helping the consumer to borrow more and more."

It would be desirable, of course, if the consumer would
retrench a bit. Not that he would continue to increase his
borrowing.

Fry: Well the consumer is retrenching a little, but only
because its costs $80 to fill up a Ford Expedition.

Richebacher: Yah, that's right...The thing to realize, of
course, is that the housing bubble is many times more
dangerous than the stock market bubble, because it involves
the whole banking system. Greenspan has replaced one bubble
with an even bigger and more dangerous bubble. It's insane.

American monetary policy is out of control. Greenspan has
created a debt Colossus. This debt Colossus needs permanent
new credit. In an economy that needs four dollars in credit
to produce one dollar of GDP, simply reducing credit could
be disastrous. Even a slight reduction of credit could
create enormous negative repercussions in the asset markets
and financial markets.

The level of credit excess in America has reached such a
level of absurdity that no return to normalcy is possible
without a disastrous effect on the economy.

Fry: Wonderful.

Richebacher: America has become what Hyman Minsky calls a
"Ponzi unit." In other words, there sometimes comes a point
where an economic unit has to rely upon asset sales to
satisfy its interest payments and debt repayment. That's
America!

[Editor's note: As Dr. Kurt explains in the October issue
of his newsletter, "[The writings of Hyman P. Minksy,
particularly his 1986 book, 'Stabilizing and Unstable
Economy,'...identify three distinct income-debt relations
for economic units: hedge, speculative and Ponzi finance:

1) Hedge-financing units can fulfill all of their
contractual payment obligations by their cash flow.
2) Speculative units can meet the interest bill on their
liabilities from their income, but are unable to repay the
principal out of cash flow from operations. They need to
roll over their liabilities.

3) Ponzi units are unable to fulfill repayment of
principal and to pay the interest due on outstanding debts
by their cash flow from operations. They depend on
borrowing or selling assets even to meet their interest
bill.

It is a reasonable conclusion that the U.S. economy and its
financial system on the whole have become one huge Ponzi
financing unit."]

Richebacher: What the Americans have done is that they have
simply abolished savings. And that means that more and more
of GDP goes into consumption at the expense of investment
and at the expense of the trade balance...

What I often hear is that there's so much liquidity in the
US economy and US financial markets. But this liquidity is
not from cash. It is credit. There is huge liquidity in the
asset markets that could turn into a savage deflation
tomorrow. This is an illusion, this liquidity argument. It
works as long as the system of inflating asset prices
functions. But when it stops, liquidity is gone. If there
is a lot of leverage in the market, it can collapse.

But people say to me, "It has not yet happened." Yes,
that's right it has not yet happened...But it will, as soon
as credit becomes more expensive or difficult to obtain...

The crucial support for the American financial
infrastructure is the massive purchases of U.S. Treasury
bonds by foreign central banks. The Americans think that
this is to their advantage. But this only means that they
have a longer rope with which to hang themselves. To have
too much credit is never good, not for a country and not
for an individual and not for a company.

Fry: And not for a wife, certainly.

Richebacher: This is the problem. America has too much
international credit. Not from private investors, but from
central banks. Central banks are the marginal key
influence. And therefore, when you consider the American
fundamentals, America is certainly the most backward
country in the world, among industrialized nations.

From a fundamental point of view, the American economy is
in incomparably worst condition today than in 2000. Income
growth for the individual is stagnating. It is negative.
And there is no savings. America has no reserves to
protect itself against the next recession.

The fact is, you Americans are trapped. And worse, there
comes a point where you're unable to sell any assets to
raise capital, a point where the markets become completely
illiquid...because there's no buyer left. The buyers of
today are all leveraged buyers. They need new credit. But
when you get declining prices, there is no buyer
left...America's super-liquidity all comes from borrowing.
Credit has played a major role in all U.S. financial
markets...

There are many who say that deficit spending by the
government is bad. But they don't say that deficit
spending by the consumer is equally bad, or worse. The
American idea that everything good comes from consumer
spending is preposterous. And that is the key fallacy in
America today.

But the key question is whether America has finally reached
the inflection point where its disastrous economic policies
will begin to undermine its prosperity. I think she has.

Fry: It's hard to see an easy way out.

Richebacher: There is no way out. The excesses are much too
big to be treated with conventional methods.

Out of the Woods ??

Edel Man,....

@ Edel Man

Unterschaetze Mahendra nicht, der hat Weisheiten die haben wir nicht.
In vielen Dingen hatte er Recht, in allen doch unmoeglich da er auch nur ein Mensch ist. Mich wuerde sein letzter Update interessieren aber ich bin kein Member mehr. Auf seiner Webseite gab es keinen Update seit 10.Oktober. Der neue Trend bei Gold muss sich erst bestaetigen, langsam kommen die Auswirkungen von Wilma, die BB Rally ist vorbei, back to Reality !

Meine Strategie ist HOLD.

Und immer kommt die Frage auf is it truth or illusion was im moment passiert.

Tatsachen ?

Auf CNBC wird posound das Inflation unter Kontrolle ist, die Leute in Aktien investieren sollten und einige T-Bonds verkaufen. Es sollen noch 3-4 Zinserhoehungen geben aber das ist auch kein Problem, denn der Dollar sollte dadurch noch staerker sein nach den Hurricans.

Wir bieten die besten Zinsen und spielen Euch eins vor.

Crying in the wind and silver rocks..

Seeing is believing but you can listen to it after a short download.

http://boogiewoogie.com/TEST/ARTIST/DORE/Silver%20Rocks.mp3

News fron Crystalball:

MIX TREND FOR THIS WEEK...
Dear Members,
I am very delighted to see the accuracy with which astrological or planetary movements match with market trends :D. As I have stated on several occasions in the past, nature creates the wave that determines movements of the market, as well as other events. This means that a favourable wave will result to a buoyant market while a negative one leads to a downward trend. What I do is try to discern the timing and intensity of the various waves and advise accordingly. I shall be very happy if my track record of predicting the markets remains this way or indeed becomes more accurate.

Several times this year, I have stated that many of my followers shall have great returns on their investments in the last quarter of 2005. I would like to affirm that I still believe this will be the case.

Trading commodities, markets and currencies is becoming increasingly difficult and is a major challenge for traders and investors. In addition to taking into account economic data as well as the geo-political situation, most bankers, hedge funds and members of the financial community go along with what analysts and economists advise. However, they still find it difficult to trade in the market. Many will actually fail in coming times since a very uncertain period lurks ahead. The ability to see the wave as it shall unfold in the future therefore renders it quite safe to trade markets. Astrology can unravel the likely geo-political situations, natural calamities and future hidden moves of market well in advance. This is why I am of the opinion that it does no harm to follow any indicator which can reveal the market since we trade to make money and not to lose.

Small part from this week letter:

Metals may rise from Tuesday for a short period, Copper will fall from Wednesday, Dollar index will rise from Thursday and grains will move up in full force also from Thursday.

Bond should trade positive, oil should for a short period from Tuesday and stock market should move down from Wedensday. Lumber should rise sharply and ornage juice fall is on the way. For details of daily trend you have to subscribe weekly letter.

THE WAVE OF NATURE WILL BRING A TSUNAMI WAVE IN THE DOLLAR. THINK TWICE BEFORE YOU TRADE AGINST IT. NO MATTER HOW WEALTHY YOUR INSTITUTION OR FUND IS, IT COULD BE WIPED OUT IN THE NEXT TWO MONTH’S WAVE IF YOU DECIDE TO GO AGAINST IT.

# All,

Am 26.9.05 sprach Allan Greenspan mit dem französichen Finanzminster und teilte ihn mit, das die USA die Kontrolle über ihr Haushaltsdefizit verloren haben!!

gruss hpoth

Danke, Edel Man.
Auf den neuen Mogambo habe ich schon die ganze Zeit gewartet.

Wednesday, October 26, 2005, 12:11:00 PM EST

Will Your Gold Share Investment be Diluted by Higher Prices?

Author: Jim Sinclair

How will the shareholders of gold producers be significantly diluted as the price of gold rises? It won’t be because of the age old tradition of stock options which can be re-priced and results in infinitely more profit than insider salaries. That is not stockholder friendly but is certainly not the real demon lurking within the gold producing industry.

The gold industry is small and I know whereof I speak for a simple reason: I am in the middle f it. There is no one else blogging who can say that. I personally financed Sutton Resources between 1989 and 1994 and am presently doing the same with another company. I have dealt properties and interfaced with the top majors in the business.

I am shocked to see that without exception these companies are firing employees for no apparent reason at all; doubling the work loads of others; making geologists and engineers handle business matters for which they have no training or experience; downgrading housing for employees meaning the once good life associated with working for a major is now history.

This might appear to you as simply good business. But the bottom lines are not reflecting the degree of these austerities. Where earnings have moved higher with the gold price, the leverage gain of old is missing. In many cases an inexplicable failure to improve the bottom line is the rule.

The problem is new accounting rules. Now every short of gold derivative has to be assigned before hand to the project for which it is entered. The mark to market has to charge to that project.

Clearly, as gold rises the project so charged has to bomb out financially. The demon is that the industry is still riddled with short of gold derivatives - even among those that speak out loudly against them and swear not to use them anymore..

New production in the main is still being financed by these mad devices. The stink that they emote is that no buyer of these short of gold over-the-counter derivatives would ever agree to a contract that if you are to believe what we are told about them favors the short seller of the gold by orders of magnitude. The buyers of these sales would have to be billionaires that have been re-located to insane asylums.

First let me assure you that I do not believe that any of these companies are going belly up. We have the Ashanti example to prove this thesis. What is going to happen (as occurred in the first derivative failure of the industry) is ownership of the company will transfer from the shareholders to the banks that made the short of gold derivative in the first place. Shares will be issued to meet the debits. As these shares increase the total capitalization of the producers, those holding shares are diluted in their ownership of the underlying assets.

Next the banks as major stockholders of the producers will cause the industry to consolidate as one company after another will merge into Universal Planet Earth Gold Inc. By the time it is finished the original shareholder will have been watered down more than New Orleans.

What is happening at almost every producer - major or minor - is that they are cutting back in order to protect their balance sheet liquidity position as the margin call of these short of gold weapons of mass financial destruction do in fact have margin call criteria even if it is not called that. What will trigger a call is not the loss on the short of gold over the counter derivative, but the condition of the producers balance sheet liquidity and the rating of its debt.

The bottom line is that many stockholders are going to go into shock when gold goes to $529 and above $1,000, causing absolute dilutionary havoc in their investments. Sorry but these are the facts!

Non-recourse loans are short of gold over-the-counter derivative based. You can take that one to the bank that will eventually own your company.