Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    ""Das sind die Zinsen, die fortlaufend hinabträufeln
    in die Kapitalien, welche beständig anschwellen;
    man hört ordentlich, wie sie wachsen, ""



    Die Amerikaner geben fuer jeden Dollar den sie verdienen ca. $ 1.25 aber aus. So wie die aus 100 Thaler wieder 100 Thaler machen sind es nur 100 Thaler Schulden mehr wenn es so weiter geht.


    Das Drucken haben schon viele probiert, alle sind sie auf die Schnauze gefallen, egal wer.


    Darauf kann ich auch noch warten.


    Mfg


    XAX

    Apropos Zins


    Heute lese ich in der FAZ, daß der Anleihe-Guru Bill Gross, ein Ende der Zinserhöhungen in den USA nahen sieht. Er geht davon aus, daß es nur noch einen Zinsschritt (von 3,75% auf 4%) geben wird, dann sei Schluß.


    Das Wirtschaftswachstum in den USA sieht er 2006 bei 2% oder darunter.


    Wenn das zutrifft, sollte der Dollar in der Tat, in den Sturzflug übergehen.


    Viele Grüße


    liberty

    Es kommt nicht darauf an, die Zukunft vorauszusagen, sondern darauf auf die Zukunft vorbereitet zu sein. - Perikles

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Beim Wirtschaftswachstum in den USA sollte man sowieso überskeptisch sein.


    Es ist durch gigantische Aufblähung der Kredite zu 2/3 konsumorientiert.


    Und hochwahrscheinlich sind die Statistiken verfälscht oder inkorrekt,
    so wie es die Preissteigerungsraten klar sind.


    Grüsse

    Klar,


    aber wenn schon die offiziellen Daten, wie Bill Gross vermutet, 2006 so stark nach unten zeigen werden, dann müssen erst recht die Alarmblinker angehen.


    Wird echt spannend.


    Viele Grüße

    Es kommt nicht darauf an, die Zukunft vorauszusagen, sondern darauf auf die Zukunft vorbereitet zu sein. - Perikles

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    The dollar must take out the 90.05 resistance level very soon or the resulting imbalance of specs and commercials will tip over in favor of the commercials as the momentum playing funds get bored with the action and head for greener pastures.


    The loss of upside momentum bears watching at this point since the imbalance is even larger this time around. So far, the dollar has not broken down technically but it has given warning signs that it is getting tired.


    Once the huge spec dollar long position holders ditch their longs, the dollar will have nothing but air beneath ;) it as no one will be left to support it on the downside except for shorts who decide to take some money off the table.


    This action should give gold the needed impetus to break out above the band of resistance between $475-$480 and give it a shot at $500 before moving on to $529.
    Dan Norcini
    (Heute bei Sinclair)

    • Offizieller Beitrag
    Zitat

    Original von afm


    Ich bin gespannt wie Sie das prognostizierte Riesen-Finanzdebakel diesmal zu schaukeln versuchen.


    Das sind wir alle!! ;)
    Vermutlich kämen hier alle Mittel zu spät,so sie eingesetzt würden.


    Grüsse

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Gold Watch: In a bull market "you go up, you go down, you go around"
    By Jon Nones
    28 Oct 2005 at 04:36 PM


    Gold for December delivery closed at $474.80, down 80 cents for the session, but up $5.70, or 1.2%, for the week.


    The dollar gained ground against the yen and the euro Friday after the Commerce Department said growth in U.S. gross domestic product picked up in the third quarter to a 3.8% annualized rate. Gold futures fell today as result, according to MarketWatch.


    "The precious metals are suffering from a lack of interest more than anything else" Friday, said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.


    So "bulls will need to exercise considerable patience as we head into November," he said. "With two months left in the year I'm expecting a strong rally once this period of sideways trading runs its course."


    Gold futures were hit by speculative selling after a rise in the dollar and strong U.S. GDP data X(capped the recent investment interest in the metals complex, Reuters reiterated.


    "We're hitting stops since the euro is down 40 ticks and third quarter GDP was much better than expected," said a COMEX floor trader who added that a mix of independent brokers and investment funds had been active so far in the morning.


    "This is mainly Friday profit taking," said the floor trader. "The market was up for the week and in a bull market you go up, you go down, you go around."


    Gold is relatively firm on concerns that inflation might prompt an earlier than expected European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike and that has lifted the euro against the U.S. dollar, UBS analyst John Reade wrote.


    ýThe greenback might also be weakening due to US political factors,ý :] Reade added.


    ýThe U.S. special prosecutor investigating whether White House officials deliberately leaked the name of a CIA agent was expected to report his findings on Friday,ý Reade said.


    ýThe decision by Harriet Miers to withdraw her nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court yesterday was another sign of political difficulties in Washington,ý Reade added.


    "We continue to expect long liquidation at some point although the exact timing of this is proving very tough to predict.ý

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Goethe war gut,mirador!


    WENN EINER SICH AUCH ÜBERSCHÄTZT,
    DIE STERNE KANN ER NICHT ERREICHEN;
    ZU TIEF WIRD ER HRABGESETZT,
    DA IST DENN ALLES BALD IM GLEICHEN.


    Grüsse

    Le Metropole Members,


    8p ET Sunday, October 30, 2005

    Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

    Last week The New York Times published several
    long reports examining what it considers the high
    social and environmental costs of gold mining.
    If you haven't already seen them, you can find
    them here:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/24/international/24GOLD.html


    Peru:


    The Cost of Gold | Treasure of Yanacocha
    Tangled Strands in Fight Over Peru Gold Mine


    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10…onal/americas/25GOLD.html

    Gold and Silver Market Updates


    Clive Maund
    Oct 31. 2005


    Gold


    Gold has done little price-wise since the last update - it has continued to track sideways unwinding the overbought condition that developed as a result of the breakout in September. At first sight this trading range looks like a period of consolidation that should be followed by renewed advance, but with regard to the short-term outlook, there are several reasons for some caution at this time.


    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund103105.html

    Indian Demand this week


    No the Indian market is not yet happy with the present gold price and has stayed out of the international market, according to Daman from India. He gave us this report: -


    Indian Diwali sales are now officially declared to be their dullest best in last 9 years of Diwali months. The festival of Diwali, itself, is on the 1st of November, next week.


    The State Trading Corporation, an authorized Gold Importer, has just filed NIL returns for Gold turnover for September and will repeat the same NIL for October, if nothing happens in next 3 days. To give you perspective on this, this organization imported 20 to 30 tonnes a month in the last 6/7 years during these Diwali months.


    Certainly, the second half of 2005, like 2004, is a poor period for gold importing in India! It was this time last year that the gold price rose internationally and the discount at which the Indian market could buy [due to interest arbitrage] disappeared. This year the lull can be attributed to high international gold prices not being accepted yet by the Indian market. On top of this the Rupee itself is down 2% over the recent months, adding to the Rupee cost of gold.


    Stable prices holding their ground until they are thought of as cheap attract the biggest volume of buyers in India. It's all a matter of timing!

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