Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Edel Man

Ach wie gut das niemand weiss das Bernanke drucken kann so viel er will und niemand es mehr weiss.
.....Dollar staerker.... ???

You bet Edel Man, they can fool the market but not forever !

Die Cabals kriegen schon ihr Fett weg, was sagst du dazu ?, HW

November 14 – Gold $468.20 down 20 cents - Silver $7.74 unchanged

Increasing Talk Of Central Bank Gold BUYING, Very Bullish As Market Cannot Handle It
"The power of accurate observation is frequently called cynicism by those who don't have it."
- George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)

The London AM Fix: $469.75
In euros: 399.96
Silver Fix: $7.8275

Gold was up a buck from the prior Comex close and silver 9 cents higher. That is the second day in a row the early morning silver call was sharply higher. MOST unusual.

Naturally, The Gold Cartel played their pathetically tiring broken record and immediately knocked gold down nearly $3 off its early Fix high as the Comex opened. While silver sold off, the bad guys were unable to take silver down on the Comex trading session as buyers were waiting for the gold selling to attract silver selling, which it did.

The most important news of the day concerned central bank gold buying and the growing concern of central banks to let go of what they have left. These stories made the rounds among the bullion dealers (I know because I was sent a copy of one of their comments):

Top Economist Foresees Central Bank Gold Buying

By Tim Wood
14 Nov 2005 at 05:14 AM EST

JOHANNESBURG (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Kenneth Rogoff told delegates attending the 2005 LBMA Precious Metals Conference that he expects central bank gold sales to be reversed in time. The Professor of Economics at Harvard was also bearish on the American economy and the US dollar especially.

"There are less compelling reasons to sell gold in future," Rogoff told the bustling conference ongoing in Johannesburg.

He noted that central banks would continue to diversify reserve portfolios which are presently heavily dollar weighted. He believes the uptake of euros will be limited for many of the same reasons the dollar is viewed less favourably, and that could provide room to buy gold.

Rogoff also said that low global inflation, which he expects to persist, provides an additional reason for central banks to own gold.

"It would make sense to reduce gold sales," he added…

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=14588

-END-

From Reuters
Monday, November 14, 2005

S.Africa c.bank says might up gold reserves

Mon Nov 14, 2005 2:33 PM GMT

JOHANNESBURG -- The central bank in South Africa -- the world's largest producer of gold -- might increase its gold reserves, its head said on Monday, but he gave few details.

"As part of our reviews on composition of our gold holdings, we may even consider increasing our gold holdings," Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni said in a prepared text of a speech at a precious metals conference in Johannesburg…

http://za.today.reuters.com/ne…nessNews&storyID=2005-11-
14T123326Z_01_BAN445211_RTRIDST_0_OZABS-MINERALS-SAFRICA-GOLD-20051114.XML

-END-

This is terrible news for The Gold Cartel and their worst nightmare. There is NO ROOM for this sort of new buying in the gold market as the cabal already has to deal with a 120+ tonne per month supply/demand deficit, one which can only be handled with central bank gold selling and leasing. Central bank buying at this point in time will send the price of gold much higher, which of course is ALREADY happening. Contrary to what the pundits unanimously thought a year ago, gold has rallied $48 in 2005, despite the dollar going from 81 to 92. The reason is increased gold demand in general (India, etc.) and increasing central bank gold demand from likes of the Chinese, Koreans, etc.

A few points to make:

*Central bankers are sheeples. The notion that central bank selling is now relatively "out" will gradually have a meaningful impact.

*The latest mutterings about central bank gold buying are following what MIDAS has presented to Café members for some time – first the Chinese, then the Koreans. Of course, everyone knows the Argentines have bought.

*When we read mutterings and generalities like we have above, the odds are above 90% the same people have heard (know) what you have. The difference is specifics like those sent your way are not discussed by polite company in public.

*The Gold Cartel knows they are in BIG TROUBLE and are stalling the inevitable. One of their ways of damage control is to have Barrick Gold take over Placer Doom to prevent their toxic hedge book from blowing up, as it will be under Barrick’s US Government/ JP Morgan safe haven program.

*Rogoff isn’t particularly gold bullish in the short-term. Perhaps this stems from his bureaucratic nature. If the central banks slow down their selling and the Asian banks keep buying (start buying in the case of a few other central banks), the price of gold will not just go up, it HAS TO explode in the months ahead.

*I went to Pretoria, South Africa in early 2001 and two of the most senior officials of the South African Reserve Bank attended my gold presentation re the price rigging. The price of gold was around $260 at the time. They just laughed in private. However, they did send a representative to our GATA African Gold Summit in May of that year.

The GATA camp has long decried the gold supply/demand numbers coming out of the mainstream gold world. As Frank Veneroso said, they defy credibility they are so off base. The Gold Cartel aligned Virtual Metals came out with more of their nonsense today.

14 Nov 2005 13:21
Gold demand to outpace supply in 2005 -report

LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Gold demand is expected to be six percent more than supply in 2005 and the estimated deficit is supporting prices, an independent research group said on Monday.

Total gold demand in the current year was likely to be 4,019 tonnes, with supply seen at 3,791 tonnes, Virtual Metals said in a news release.

The report said gold prices in 2006 would average $430 an ounce.

$469.10/469.90 a troy ounce by 1250 GMT on Monday. Last month it surged to a near-18-year peak of $480.25.

Gold supply included mine production, central bank sales and recycled gold…

-END-

Their demand numbers are understated by something by more than 1100 tonnes. Frank Veneroso proclaimed earlier this year why the demand numbers of GFMS (and Virtual) have no credibility. It is easy to explain why, even for me. Note that there are no gold/loan or swap numbers in their gold supply equation. ZERO.

By the way, an FYI for you and a fun one. Jessica Cross is Virtual Metals. She has denigrated GATA (along with the World Gold Council, whom she is closely tied to) for many years. She is married to the former number two of the South African Reserve Bank. She also stated "categorically" in 2003 in front of a GATA colleague at a private sales meeting that gold would not get through $400!

Virtual Metals: $430 average gold next year!!!! We know that demand is increasing all over the world, and when it comes to supply:

Gold output to drop to 80yr low

14/11/2005 19:15

Johannesburg - South African gold output was likely to fall to an 80-year low of 300 tons in 2005 down from 346 tons in 2004, which was the lowest level since 1931, Andisa Securities gold analyst Dr Dave Davis said on Monday.

From 2006, South African gold output was likely to stablise at about 300 tons as a number of gold mining projects came on line like the South Deep mine, AngloGold Ashanti's (ANG) Moab Khotsong mine and new gold mining projects that Harmony Gold (HAR) was developing, Davis said at the London Bullion Market Association Precious Metals conference.

In 2002, South African produced 400 tons of gold….

-END-

Our STALKER source called and said his London bullion dealer source says demand for physical is brisk. This dealer is looking for the dollar to drop to the 87 to 88 area and for gold to clear $484 before year-end.

The gold open interest only rose 1884 contracts to 323,640, while the silver OI rose 414 contracts to 146,450. Both numbers are constructive. The gold open interest is very low, which means there is room for tens of thousands of specs to send the price up. The silver open interest continues to go into new high ground, suggesting silver is in play and the future physical market buyers are loading up with futures first.

Copper, platinum and palladium all closed higher today.

Habt ihr den schon gelesen ?

Posted 11/14/2005 11:11 PM

A 'fiscal hurricane' on the horizon

By Richard Wolf, USA TODAY

Sadly, it's no laughing matter. To hear Walker, the nation's top auditor, tell it, the United States can be likened to Rome before the fall of the empire. Its financial condition is "worse than advertised," he says. It has a "broken business model." It faces deficits in its budget, its balance of payments, its savings — and its leadership....more

http://www.usatoday.com/news/w…cal-hurricane-cover_x.htm

Let it snow $$$$ ..... Mr. Snow

Bis der Ast bricht !

Goldkonzerne investieren wieder kräftig in die Exploration

Experten prognostizieren weiteren Preisanstieg

New York - Das 17-Jahres-Hoch beim Goldpreis läßt führende Goldproduzenten nach neuen Vorkommen suchen. Nachdem die Bergbaukonzerne fünf Jahre lang kaum Geld investiert haben, stecken sie in diesem Jahr geschätzt 2,29 Mrd. Dollar (1,95 Mrd. Euro) in die Exploration. Das sind 29 Prozent mehr als 2004, berichtet das kanadische Marktforschungsunternehmen Metals Economics Group.

Durch den jahrzehntelangen Abbau sind die Vorkommen in den Goldminen Südafrikas, Australiens und der USA fast erschöpft. "Wir haben deshalb begonnen, in neuen Regionen nach Gold Ausschau zu halten - etwa in Südostasien, in Teilen Afrikas sowie in Rußland und China", sagt Richard Duffy, Leiter Business Development bei AngloGold in Johannesburg. "Es geht darum, sich alle Möglichkeiten offen zu halten." AngloGold ist nach Fördervolumen der zweitgrößte Goldproduzent weltweit.

Seit Jahresbeginn ist der Goldpreis fünf Prozent gestiegen. Zuletzt kostete die Unze Gold in London gut 480 Dollar. Das ist der höchste Preis seit Januar 1988. Der Rekord-Ölpreis hat Anleger dazu veranlaßt, das Edelmetall als Inflationsabsicherung zu kaufen. Auch durch den Wertverlust des US-Dollar gegenüber den 16 weltweit wichtigsten Währungen, hat Gold als Anlagemedium wieder an Bedeutung gewonnen.

Im vergangenen Jahr haben die Bergbaukonzerne so wenig Gold gefördert wie seit den 40er Jahren nicht mehr. Auch in der ersten Jahreshälfte 2005 war das Produktionsvolumen mit 1172 Tonnen wenig verändert, wie das Londoner Marktforschungsunternehmen GFMS mitteilt.

Goldproduzenten "halten nun in Regionen Ausschau, in denen bislang noch nicht gefördert wurde", so Jason Goulden, Direktor für Explorationsforschung bei der Metals Economics Group. Newport Mining, der weltgrößte Goldproduzent mit Sitz in Denver, dürfte seine Explorationsausgaben von 132 Mio. Dollar im Jahr 2004 auf bis zu 220 Mio. Dollar in diesem Jahr ausweiten. AngloGold wird 80 Mio. Dollar ausgeben, dies ist die höchste Summe seit 2001. Randgold, ansässig in Jersey, wird in diesem Jahr 23 Mio. Dollar für die Exploration aufwenden gegenüber 15,5 Mio. im Vorjahr. Der Konzern fördert in Burkina Faso, im Senegal, in Ghana und in Tansania und eröffnete am Samstag eine zweite Mine in Mali.

Der hohe Goldpreis läßt die Konzerne auch verstärkt nach Übernahmezielen Ausschau halten. Barrick Gold gab Ende Oktober ein Angebot im Volumen von 9,2 Mrd. für den kanadischen Goldproduzenten Placer Dome ab. Insgesamt wurden 2005 in der Branche Fusionen und Übernahmen im Volumen von 11,5 Mrd. Dollar getätigt. Das ist mehr als doppelt so viel wie 2004.

Selbst exotische Lagerstätten werden auf einmal lukrativ. So haben Geologen von Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold bereits im Jahr 1988 ein großes Goldvorkommen entdeckt. Die Grasberg-Mine in Indonesien liegt unter einem Gletscher in 4268 Meter Höhe und birgt das weltgrößte Vorkommen mit 46 Mio. Unzen Gold. "Bei einem Goldpreis um 300 Dollar je Feinunze, ist es finanzieller Wahnsinn, Gold zu fördern", sagte Graham Birch, Fondsmanager und Rohstoffspezialist bei Merrill Lynch Investment. "Bei dem derzeitigen Goldpreis machen die Exploration und der Aufbau einer Mine mehr Sinn." Bis 2010 prognostiziert Birch sogar einen Goldpreis von 725 Dollar je Feinunze. Bloomberg

Quelle: Die Welt, 15. November 2005

Why strong central banks fall over themselves to sell gold

Norris gleefully reports that the Swiss National Bank has also joined the "let's junk gold" contest. He mockingly adds that the Swiss defection is not unlike Rome embracing Protestantism. Of course, he fails to mention that the Swiss were put under duress: Paul A. Volcker was dispatched to Zürich to twist their arm. Even so, I concede that an explanation is in order. When a weak central bank is selling gold to meet its maturing liabilities, it is acting logically. It is using gold to maintain its credit standing. That is what gold is for. But when strong central banks, such as the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are falling over themselves to sell monetary gold from reserves under the full glare of publicity, knowing that the inevitable result of the fanfare will be the worst sales price for the asset on the block, then logic is turned upside down. The lame explanation that gold sales are designed to raise funds to perform good deeds is for simpletons only. If the motif were really charity, then there would be all the more reason to cut out glare and fanfare, lest the trustees open themselves to charges of unfaithful stewardship. We are fully justified in looking for a hidden agenda. I do not pretend to know the real reason for this "negative gold rush". I can only speculate: central banks are desperately trying to prevent a melt-down threatening the financial system. This crisis is largely unknown to the public, even though it is potentially more damaging than any previous one in the 20th century. It has to do with "naked" selling of call options on gold bullion and other forms of forward sales by banks. This activity has been officially encouraged by government as a way to finance the stock market and real estate bubble, the bursting of which would cause great damage to the world economy. Central bank gold sales are designed to bail out short interest in a futile effort to stave off a corner in gold.

more....

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/fekete/fekete111605.html

Russian Central Bank May Double Proportion of Gold Reserves

By Tim Wood
15 Nov 2005 at 08:43 AM EST

JOHANNESBURG (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Addressing delegates to the LBMA Precious Metals Conference on its last day, Russia's Head of External Reserves Management, Maria Guegina, said gold reserves as a proportion of all reserves may be doubled.

Noting that Russia presently has 5% of its national reserve portfolio invested in gold, Guegina said, “10% of gold in reserves would be appropriate”.

Sorry, Guten Morgen habe ich vergessen.

Gold deficit

Posted: Tue, 15 Nov 2005

[miningmx.com] -- GOLD production would decline over the next four years, according to a report by news service I-Net Bridge quoting DRDGOLD CEO, Mark Wellesley-Wood.

In the report, Wellesley-Wood said that even if the world's current crop of gold projects were developed, more were needed.

I-Net Bridge was quoting from DRDGOLD's latest investor newsletter which had been penned by Wellesley-Wood.

Under investment in gold projects during the gold price slump is largely regarded as the reason for the current dearth in new gold ounces.

"There are 29 new gold mines in the pipeline right now and even if all these are developed, it would require a further seven projects every year to make up the deficit," Wellesley-Wood said in the I-Net report.

"The reality is that not all these 29 mines will get the go-ahead as cost inflation, especially capital cost inflation for resources projects, has increased by a great deal more than the gold price. So where are the ounces going to come from," Wellesley-Wood said.

"Well, not from the traditional source - exploration. Expenditure on exploration peaked in gold mining in 1997, and has been pretty flat since then.

"Not only are the geologists not there (as most have gone off to look for oil, nickel, copper, etc) but the geological terrain is getting tougher with most of the known prospective ground having been searched by now," he said.

"Shares in junior mining and exploration companies are soaring. Next, the dehedging trend is set to continue. Who would want to be short gold in four years in this climate? Finally, merger and acquisition activity and industry consolidation will continue apace - if you can't find it, buy it."

Barrick, Glamis Lead Acquisition Search as Gold Output Falls

Likely Targets

The most attractive takeover targets are Bema Gold Corp., Eldorado Gold Corp. and Iamgold Corp., a Toronto-based producer involved in three failed mergers last year, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Mike Jalonen said in a Nov. 7 report.

Jalonen ``might be right,'' Iamgold Chief Executive Joseph Conway said in an interview. ``We have exploration projects that look quite good and continue to be growing. The question is, Who? Other intermediate producers, potentially. We continue all the time to try to engage companies that we've identified and look interesting that would either be a merger or takeover candidate.''

Shares of Vancouver-based Bema surged 9.7 percent last week, after Barrick announced its bid for Placer. Eldorado Gold, also based in Vancouver, jumped 11 percent. Eldorado spokeswoman Dawn Moss declined to comment.

Scarcity of Gold

Barrick's hostile bid for Placer ``highlights to the market the scarcity of gold in the ground,'' said Evy Hambro, who helps manage $12 billion of natural-resource funds at Merrill Lynch in London, including the $3.4 billion World Mining Fund. ``The gold industry today remains one of the most fragmented of commodity industries.''

World gold production fell 5 percent last year, as fabrication demand rose 5.7 percent, GFMS said.

more...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…aIvnVJdvmsqk&refer=canada

Das kennen wir, Edel Man

Der Tag faengt immer gut an in der letzten Zeit bis die Cabal kommen und es wieder regnet.

Gruss, bei uns ist noch blauer Himmel.

XAX