Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Silberpreis überwindet die 8,20er Marke.
Mal sehen, ob's hält.

Wie Edel schon gesagt hat, erst am Montag sehen wir wie der Kampf um die 500 weiter geht.
Hoffentlich ist den Cabals so schlecht sowie der Truthahn steckt denen noch im Hals beim Gegenangriff

GO GOLD GO !

In dieser Woche hat er eine Punktlandung bei seiner Goldkursvorhersage hingelegt. Der Goldkurs ging in der Spitze tatsächlich - wie vorausgesagt - auf 496,8 $.

I told you so, my 2005 Book is also on sale now.

Its even more accurate, become a member now,before I increase again 100%.

Man sollte auf alle Faelle vorsichtig sein denn naechste Woche muessen die Cabals was machen sonst sind sie ueberollt.
Einen Puffer haben muss man sonst fliegt man aus dem Sattel vor lauter Kaufreude die im Moment herrscht.

Also bitte aufpassen und die Stellung halten heisst es.

Die 480 koennten wieder kommen anhand der chart die ich angeschaut habe.

Ich wuensche Euch allen ein schoenes Weekend, bei den Spotpreisen sowieso.

Mfg

Eldo

Eldorado,
bin mir ziemlich sicher, wenn wir die 500$ Marke knacken werden, gibts auch etliche Gewinnmitnahmen...Dazu das Kartell, welches jetzt langsam reagieren muß wie Du schon richtig schreibst...

Auch Gold weist überraschend ein saisonales Preismuster auf

24. November 2005 Es gibt bestimmte saisonal typische Kursverläufe, die hinlänglich bekannt sind. Dazu zählen die häufig beschworene Dax-Jahresendrally oder die unschwer nachvollziehbare Tatsache, daß Heizöl im Winter normalerweise teuer ist als im Sommer. Doch es gibt auch etliche jahreszeitlich bedingte Kursmuster, deren Existenz weitgehend unbekannt ist. Dazu gehören die saisonalen Schwankungen mancher Edelmetallpreise.

Es ist nicht unmittelbar einsichtig ist, warum derartige jahreszeitliche Schwankungen auftreten. Schließlich kann davon ausgegangen werden, daß sich das Wetter auf den Abbau der Metalle und besonders ihre Lagerung nicht in einem solchen Maß auswirkt, daß derartig ausgeprägte Kursmuster rechtfertigen würde..

Bedingt das Weihnachtsgeschäft das Kursmuster?

Der auf das Erkennen von Kursmustern und die Entwicklung daraus ableitbarer Handelssysteme spezialisierte Experte Dimitri Speck vermutet ein ganzes Bündel von Ursachen für die saisonalen Schwankungen - im Verbrauch und in der Verarbeitung des Metalls sowie im Handelsgebaren und in der Spekulation. Unter anderem geht Speck davon aus, daß das Weihnachtsgeschäft mit daran Schuld ist. Zu Weihnachten wird vermehrt Gold geschenkt. Auf die steigende Nachfrage müssen sich die Anbieter bereits vorab einstellen und vorproduzieren.

Zwar ist nicht eindeutig, ob das schon als Erklärung ausreicht. Unabhängig davon zeigt der Goldchart eindeutig, daß es bis zur ersten Oktoberhälfte einen saisonal typischen Anstieg gibt. Insgesamt ergab sich in den Jahren 1970 bis 2004 eine jährliche Performance des Goldes von 7,5 Prozent. Ein saisonal besonders auffälliges Muster ist dabei die deutliche Aufwärtsbewegung von fast fünf Prozent, die sich in den vergangenen 33 Jahren zwischen Mitte November und Mitte Januar eingestellt hat. Hinzu kommt ein erwähnenswerter kurzfristiger Anstieg Mitte Mai. Damit erweist sich, vom Jahresanfang abgesehen, die zweite Jahreshälfte insgesamt als die stärkere.

Gold neigt zu schubartigen Anstiegen

Speck kommt beim Deutungsversuch des Chartverlaufs zu folgenden Schlüssen: „Der Goldpreis weist ein nutzbares saisonales Verhalten auf. Dieses ist aber weniger stark ausgeprägt als entsprechende jahreszeitliche Verläufe in anderen Märkten. Der Markt steigt, saisonal gesehen, relativ kontinuierlich. Nennenswerte Einbrüche gibt es kaum. Ein Grund für diese Kontinuität dürfte sein, daß es große Goldlager gibt, die ein Vielfaches des Jahresverbrauchs ausmachen. Die Geldfunktion des Goldes verhindert so eine stärkere jahreszeitliche Ausprägung. Zu berücksichtigen ist ferner, daß der Goldpreis nicht frei ist, sondern beispielsweise durch Notenbankverkäufe beeinflußt wird.”

Außerdem weist der Experte darauf hin, daß wie bei jeder Saisonalität auch beim Gold Ausnahmejahre berücksichtigt werden müssen. Ferner ist die Jahreszeit nur einer von vielen Faktoren, die auf den Preis einwirken. So neigt Gold zu schubartigen Anstiegen. Ein solcher Anstieg kann sich durchaus auch zu saisonal uninteressanten Zeiten ereignen. Eine saisonal günstige Jahreszeit machte ihn allerdings wahrscheinlicher und vielleicht auch etwas ausgeprägter.

Trotz dieser Einschränkungen ist Speck aber davon überzeugt, daß sich neben Spekulanten, Händlern und Verarbeitern auch Edelmetall- oder Schmuckkäufer die bei Gold und anderen Metallen auftretenden Saisonalitäten bei ihren Kauf- und Verkaufsentscheidungen zunutze machen können.

Die in dem Beitrag geäußerte Einschätzung gibt die Meinung des Autors und nicht die der F.A.Z.-Redaktion wieder.

Text: @JüB

Quelle: FazNet, 24.11.

Eric Fry, reporting from deep within the fog of post-
holiday merrymaking...

As gold inches ever closer to $500 an ounce, many long-time
gold bugs can scarcely believe their eyes. The barbarous
relic has not kissed the $500-mark since 1987. Over the
ensuing 12 years, the gold price plummeted against the
dollar, bottoming out at $252.50 on the final day of 1999.

But since that fateful day, the yellow metal has been
trudging steadily higher – nearly doubling in price over a
time span that has seen the Nasdaq Composite Index LOSE
half its value and the S&P 500 Index fall 10%.

Even so, the ancient monetary metal seems to have gained
very little respectability among American investors. As
recently as January of this year, in a column for New
Yorker Magazine, financial writer James Surowiecki
disdained gold as a "collective hallucination."

"Gold is valuable only as long as we collectively agree
that it is," said he. "It may be soft, shiny, durable, and
rare, but it has no more intrinsic value than feldspar or
quartz...Buying gold is the purest form of
speculation...You're buying into a collective hallucination
- exactly what those dot-com investors did in the late
nineties. One could say that gold is the biggest, most
durable bubble in history."

Your editors begged to differ. In the January 18 edition of
the Rude Awakening, we replied, "What is a U.S. dollar? Or
a share of Google? Or a 30-year Treasury bond? Aren't these
paper assets merely derivatives of a hallucination?

"To rephrase the question: If we investors are all
hallucinating to some extent, might some hallucinations be
more benign than others? Might the current market value of
gold, for example, be a less dangerous 'hallucination' than
the current market value of a dollar bill? Even conceding
the fact that our eyes may be deceiving us, we think we
perceive more value in an ounce of gold costing $432.00
than a U.S. dollar costing 1/432 an ounce of gold. Indeed,
we suspect that the dollar's illusory value is the sort of
deceptive apparition that entices unsuspecting investors to
stroll off a financial cliff.

"In the sterile environment of pure financial theory,
Surowiecki makes a valid argument. But when exposed to the
virulent microbes of real-world economics, his thesis
degrades rapidly. To be sure, the value of EVERY asset in
the world relies upon a collective judgment - or
hallucination, if you prefer. But this is hardly a
groundbreaking insight. No financial asset - gold included
- possesses an absolute, eternal value. Rather, all values
are RELATIVE.

"However, any financial asset whose relative value remains
somewhat constant over time is deemed to be a 'store of
value.' In this respect, gold has proven itself to be an
extremely lifelike hallucination - having successfully
retained its value relative to competing assets over
several thousand years. The same cannot be said for paper
currencies or government bonds, both of which routinely
find themselves cluttering the waste dumps of financial
history."

Perhaps our eyes continue to deceive us, but the gold rally
appears more lifelike every day. And as gold moves steadily
higher against ALL the world's major currencies, it steps
out of the shadows of seeming irrelevance into the bold
light of real-world demand. In other words, gold is moving
higher because long-term investors genuinely want the
stuff. Gold is rising, Bloomberg News recently explained,
"on signs of increased demand for an alternative to
currencies." This story line is so ancient that it has
become brand new.

A $500 price tag, therefore, emphasizes the yellow metal's
long march back to respectability and relevance. Gold
currently sits an 18-year high. At $514 an ounce, it would
reach a fresh 24-year high!

Gold's flirtation with two-decade highs is not merely a
curiosity for the gold-bug cult to behold. It is also an
indictment of the global faith-based currency regime....and
we think the charges are warranted. The world's faith-based
currency regime deserves gold's indictment. Which is why we
suspect that the NEXT $500 rise in the gold price might
arrive much more swiftly than the last.

Paper currencies, it bear remembering, roll off of printing
presses controlled by politicians and ignite when held
close to open flames. By contrast, gold, as James Grant
points out, "is recoverable at five parts per billion from
the earth's crust and has no central banker."

Gold's scarcity does not accord it any automatic
value...but it doesn't hurt, especially amidst the
exploding population of paper currencies and financial
derivatives.

"Just because gold has a long history of being used as
money, Surowiecki scoffed, "doesn't mean that it has a
future...In the speculative imagination, gold remains the
best hedge against Armageddon. It also remains a testament
to the tenacity of popular delusion."

Gold also remains the best hedge against the popular
delusions that support currency values. Net-net, gold's
behavior in recent days - as well as its behavior
throughout the millennia - suggests that some investors are
finding gold useful to hold in their portfolios, even if
the monetary metal is not absolutely essential.

One year ago, a colleague approached me to ask whether he
should sell his gold coins. In short, I replied, "No."
"But one of the other editors here at Agora thinks the
dollar is due for a big rally."

"I agree," I replied, "But that doesn't mean gold will not
rally even more. I would suggest doing nothing."

And so it has come to pass...Since that conversation late
last year, the U.S. dollar has gained 13.7% against the
basket of foreign currencies in the dollar index, thereby
enabling the dollar bulls of late last year to congratulate
themselves for a timely contrarian call. But gold has
soared 27% against that same basket of currencies...thereby
enabling your editors to characterize their inertia as
genius.

Because we suspect the gold rally is still much closer to
its starting point than its ending point, we also suspect
that the column we presented on December 28, 2004, is even
more relevant today.

End

Gold and the mighty dollar

Jack Chan
http://www.traderscorporation.com
Nov 25, 2005

Many newer subscribers to our service are not familiar with the ongoing long term outlook we have on the gold sector in the past two years. It has always been my belief that the gold bull market as we have witnessed from the $255 low four years ago was essentially a US dollar gold bull market, and when gold finally rises against all major currencies, we will have a global gold bull market and that is when the "phase two" of the gold bull market begins.

Folks, from all current indications, such a time has arrived.

Summary

Phase two of the gold bull market has arrived, but don't expect $1000 gold overnight. A true bull market climbs a wall of worry and is a grinding process. How long will it last and when will it end is pure speculation at this point, but until there is a 24 hour gold channel on TV, we are far from reaching saturation point.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan112505.html

Gold: A Supply/Demand Story

By Michael J. DesLauriers
26 Nov 2005 at 09:34 PM EST

TORONTO (ResourceInvestor.com) -- With everyone getting carried away trying to find reasons for the rising gold price and potential for a break above $500/ounce, it makes sense to re-examine the real drivers behind the run.

Up until recently, the POG was driven mainly by its negative correlation to the U.S. dollar. When the USDX bottomed around the 80 level at the beginning of this year, gold hit a peak of $456. In the ensuing dollar rally to 85, the yellow metal sold off down to $410 and then the correlation between gold and the dollar began to weaken.

Sometime this past summer the market witnessed the long-awaited decoupling, not just from the USD but from all currencies. Today, almost four years since the great bull run began we’re on the verge of breaching the psychologically significant $500 level, or roughly double the metal’s bear market low just above $250.

With gold now behaving as a currency, most of those who have doubted this secular bull since its birth, and insisted that this ‘barbarous relic’ would soon fall off the monetary radar all together, have no choice but to acknowledge what is self-evident or seek out more excuses to legitimize their inherently flawed belief system.

One theory that appeals to hedge fund managers, particularly because it’s rooted in history, is that gold is finding favour with investors due to renewed global inflationary concerns. For most funds this rationale presents a very convenient excuse to create a self-fulfilling prophecy, and use their inexhaustible resources to force prices higher, while never really believing in the metal’s fundamentals, and ultimately dumping when it seems that the game is up.

Of course, for those who have been invested in gold and gold shares for the past four or five years, it’s quite clear that the game is only just beginning and long-term investment profits will outweigh short-term trading gains.

The real issue here is that global inflation, minus energy’s contribution, is actually quite tame and barring a severe systemic shift from the status quo in terms of how we organize ourselves economically, this is likely to be the reality going forward, and probably with a deflationary bias to boot.

So in the absence of the U.S. dollar argument and the inflation canard, investors should come back to basics in the form of the timeless tug-of-war between supply and demand. The global appetite for the metal is on an upward trajectory and as gold continues to gain acceptance as its own currency and as a valid form of investment this trend will only accelerate, driving prices higher.

The reason that the potential effect of a serious increase in demand is so significant, is because it is almost impossible to bring about any meaningful offsetting supply increase in a timely manner.

According to the World Gold Council, “The third quarter of 2005 witnessed a 56% year-on-year growth in net investment demand for gold….Compared to the same period last year, demand in Q3’05 absorbed an increase in supply of around one fifth despite a 10% rise in the gold price.”

Although jewelry demand has weakened somewhat with higher prices, as countries like China and India continue to increase their share of global wealth the effects will be very noticeable pushing demand much higher. In that sense, gold is like copper and the industrial metals benefiting from the rise of those Eastern giants.

While most mines are clearly economic at these price levels, more need to be found. Input costs continue to rise and construction will always take the time it takes. And while the clock ticks and money and energy are spent bringing on new supply, demand will still be rising, and taking the price of gold right along with it.

Bottom line: If you want to understand what’s really going on with gold, look no further than Economics 101.

Gold Bullion or Gold Mining Stocks?

Friday, November 25, 2005


NEW YORK — With the price of gold inching toward $500 an ounce for the first time in 18 years, investors might be in a quandary: whether to buy gold bullion or shares in gold mining companies.

"We have done better owning gold than shares," said Jay Taylor, publisher of an industry newsletter, J Taylor's Gold & Technology Stocks.

"In the '70s there were dramatic profit margins — a 10 percent move in the gold price would result in maybe 30 percent increase in share price," he said. "If anything, it's gone the other way and now there are shrinking margins."

However, Peter Spina, who operates goldseek.com, a gold industry Web site, said more investors appear to be getting into gold shares, attracted more by profits than the security that often comes with owning the precious metal.

"The Newmonts and Freeports will always attract institutional funds, the big money," he said. "Traditionally, stocks have led the gold price by three to six months. But recently we are seeing more investment capital entering the market."

Shares in the so-called seniors — the big companies that mine gold — are at or near year highs. But there were mixed results in the third quarter as spiraling costs, especially for energy, nibbled at profits.

Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), the world's biggest gold producer, reported a drop in profit, citing not only high energy costs but also a shortage of miners and environmental protests in Peru that delayed exploration.

And Placer Dome Inc. (PDG), Canada's No. 2 gold producer, said it was hurt by higher energy costs and a loss on hedging against metal price fluctuations.

But Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) saw third-quarter profit more than triple, and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. reported higher profit and forecast fourth-quarter gold sales would more than double.

Newmont stock is trading at roughly 55 times estimated 2006 earnings — above the sector average of 53. Barrick is at 51.5 and Placer Dome at 81, according to Reuters data. On Wednesday, Placer Dome rejected an unsolicited $9.2 billion takeover bid from Barrick.

Gold closed at $495.70/496.40 in London on Friday after hitting a fresh 18-year high of $496.75. U.S. gold markets were closed Thursday and Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Asked if a rise in the gold price automatically attracted more stock investment, Taylor was skeptical. "It's not been the case in the last six months as energy costs have gone up faster than the gold price. If there is a pullback in energy costs, then I would be more optimistic."

He said bullion and gold share investors were two distinct groups. "The bullion guys are very sophisticated ... and American investors are clueless with respect to gold."

Frank Holmes, chairman and chief executive of U.S. Global Investors, which holds mining and gold company stocks, is bullish on mining company equities.

"The gold market is in deficit, demand is greater than supply from the mines," he said. "It takes time to explore and develop mines, which would account for the takeovers in the industry. There is a scramble for assets now."

In the short term, he sees a correction, with gold maybe passing through $500, then dropping back. "The real test will be if it goes through $520-$525, in which case it probably runs up to $650," Holmes said. "We're in a bull market for commodities, about one quarter the way through a 20-year cycle."

Taylor agreed that gold is in a bull market. Asked whether he would choose to invest in physical gold or gold company stocks, he said, "I would want some bullion for its pure wealth as it retains its value and is a means of liquidity.

"On stocks, if costs are not rising faster than the gold price, then you should start to see wider profit margins."

Also ich hab mir zwei charts angeschaut und komme zu diesen Schluss.

Der HUI der noch auf 255 ist kann demnaechst auf bis 235 manipuliert werden. Bei 224 wirds aber Arschknapp wenn ich so sagen darf denn da waere der Bulle auf die Knie und Zeit zum Fallschirm ziehen.

Aber so weit kommt es nicht IMO.

Er kann bei weiteren emotionalen Handeln in kuerze durch die 500 Dollar schlagen und der HUI geht auf 265-270 bevor er korregiert wird.
Bei zu viel Emotionen ist die Intelligenz im Eimer.

Wie weit kann es korregiert werden, 475-480 wenn das PPT good news hat die eh nur gelogen sind wenn ihr mich fragt.

Bei 462 waere es Zeit sich zu verabschieden, dazu kommt es auch nicht IMO.

Helicopter Ben druckt auf vollen touren ab Maerz wird gemunkelt, er braucht nicht mal dafuer eine Zustimmung und braucht es keinen sagen.

Kursziel 2006 sehe ich 1.37-1.45 Euro/USD

Inflation fuer die US ist angesagt und durch kommende Zinserhoehungen der EZB kann der Fiat Dollar nicht mehr viel ansteigen als er schon ist.

Wenn man dann noch Drama im Panorama hat durch Umweltskatastrophen und Terror und Krieg draufkommt kann sich jeder vorstellen was dann mit dem Goldpreis passiert.

Get quickly rid of the USD heisst die Devise aber das machen die still und heimlich damit keine Panik kommt.

Wir sitzen was da noch auf uns zukommt, ""Goldrichtig"" !

Auf dauer sehe ich das so mit dem ganzen Fiatwaehrungen:

Nach einem Börsenbrief,den ich beziehe,geht der HUI bis ca.265,danach setzt eine Konsolidierung des Goldpreises bis ca.440$ ein,na mal sehen was kommt,eigentlich hat der Schreiber aber eine Trefferquote von über 75% gehabt,in den letzten zwei Jahren

gruss

kalle

Kalle

Ich bin kein Experte und sehe das selber anhand der Charts, aber die 440 sind ein Wunschtraum oder Horror den kann ich mir bei besten Willen nicht vorstellen. Nicht bei dem Weltgeschehen und Politik, sorry es geht Bergab, vielleicht noch ein paar Hurricans fuer die USA und der Goldpreis faellt dadurch und der Dollar steigt mit weiteren Kriegskosten und neuen Krieg in Nahost.

Commodities werden enorm ansteigen in allen Fiatwaehrungen.

Technisch gesehen ja aber praktisch unmoeglich die $ 440 POG.

Wenn ich mich nicht irre.

Cheers, everything gone be alright !

Go Gold go , nur Papiergeld brennt
Waere ja noch schoener wenn man ungestraft zum Himmel drucken kann.

THE DOLLAR WILL BACKFIRE AND THE HELICOPTER WILL CRASH.

Le Metropole Members,

Frank Veneroso has served commentary at The
Toulouse-Lautrec Table entitled:

Copper: Is There A Manipulation?

Yes there is. On an historic scale. It will end in a crash.

Introduction

Several months ago, I wrote a piece contending that the
copper market was manipulated. Since then, the copper market
has climbed and climbed. It has climbed relative to virtually every other commodity. It has been the champion commodity.

So was I wrong? About the price? Of course. About the manipulation?

No. As a long time metals analyst, I am very familiar
with the history of metals manipulations. That more than anything else has misled me. This manipulation has simply
gone further than I could have imagined. Copper has had a checkered past of many manipulations - from the late 19th century to the Hamanaka scandal of the mid-1990s. I now
realize I should have read earlier about the famous
ecretan's manipulation in copper in the 1880s, as it was
the most extreme of them all.

***

Just as copper will eventually crash as Frank suggests due
to a price manipulation scheme, the price of gold will soar.