Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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This was the week of the huge Jupiter-Uranus waning trine, and it proved to be a most interesting week. Gold soared to its highest level since February 1983, slightly exceeding its December 1987 high in the nearby futures contract by about one dollar. At the same time, the Dollar/Yen rose to its highest level in 2 years, while the Euro and Swiss Franc are again testing their yearly lows.

Why is Gold up so strongly, with the Dollar up strongly as well? Don’t they usually go in opposite directions? There is no shortage of Gold, or imminent threat to disrupt the supply and distribution of Gold. In other words, the supply factors that typically are part of the equation leading to price, appears stable. But the price is far from stable. It keeps rising. The answer appears to be the perception of future inflation, if you are in the Gold pit. This is supported by the belief that the U.S. Central Bank (Federal Reserve Board) is about to end its string of consecutive interest rate rises, thereby stoking the U.S. economy to perform even greater than its 4+% rate of growth reported last week for the prior quarter. This is a perception that I do not agree with. But if you are in the currency pit, the perception is just the opposite: the Fed will continue to increase interest rates and therefore keep inflation contained. This supports the strong Dollar (and weak non-dollar currencies). Two entirely different perceptions, by people in the same business. Astrologically, this is consistent with the principles of retrograde planets. Mercury and Mars are both retrograde now, although Mercury ends this weekend, and Mars ends its retrograde motion on December 10.

Short-Term Geocosmics:

Last week we went into great detail about the importance of the Jupiter-Uranus waning trine of November 27 to U.S. stock prices. I stated, “… this signature has a 78% correlation to primary or greater cycles within 8 trading days. Since we are not in a time band for a primary cycle trough, we can assume this could be a primary cycle crest. However, in the past two instances of Jupiter-Uranus aspects, we have noted only major cycles, not primary types (major cycles are the 1/3 point of a primary cycle, and not quite as significant).” We are in the 8-day range right now. But let’s add a couple of other factors relevant to this discussion. On Sunday, December 4, Mars will be in opposition to this same Jupiter, thereby keeping the Jupiter part of this major aspect in force. This past Thursday-Friday, December 1-2, the New Moon was in Sagittarius, which is ruled by Jupiter, thus activating this Jupiter-effect even further. Jupiter’s nature is to expand, exaggerate, and grow. The nature of Mars is to quicken, and add “fire” to the heat. The combination of these signatures leads to a possible “blow-off” in markets, and this is exactly what is happening in Gold and the Japanese Nikkei stock index.

The Mars part of this cluster ends December 10. One would think that the psychology of the “blow-off” will end any day now.

Long-Term Thoughts:

In the next 8 days, we will exit the current short-term geocosmic cluster that has been in effect since November 14. On Christmas Eve, December 24, we will start a new round of mixed messages in the financials when Venus turns retrograde. And all during this time (November-December), Mars continues to square Saturn due to the stationary position of each. No matter how good the economic news is, people are still depressed and under stress. As stated before, this is the “Season of discontent” – for masses of humanity, and for its leaders. On the editorial page of Friday’s Wall Street Journal, Daniel Henninger writes, “In November, opinion poll approval of Mr. Bush’s economic management was below 40%. This is astounding, (as) this week’s revised third quarter growth rate of 4.3% was the 10th straight quarter of growth averaging nearly 4% on an annual basis… (this is) shout-from-then-rooftop news, but for this administration it’s just another tree falling in they forest.

This is the Alfred E. Neuman ‘what, me worry?’ school of public relations. It doesn’t seem appropriate for a major war.” He goes on to make the point that even with great economic news, the Bush Administration is exhibiting symptoms of “clinical depression.” The “Bushies are (not) numb to seeing their public standing dissed and downgraded. I think they have concluded this is a game that’s rigged against them (and) the mainstream media’s spin is like bad weather – uncontrollable… In this new environment… the language, the very vocabulary of all these conversations, has been ramped way up. Shrillness has monetary value now, and it has political value… By not seeing that the spin is now the vortex, the White House let it suck down the president’s support to a level that threatens his ability to govern.”

And there you have it. Mars square Saturn this last quarter, and Saturn sitting right on W’s natal Ascendant, Mercury and Pluto. Even when the news is so good you should be “shouting from the rooftops,” instead you see signs of stress, discontent, and depression.

Bernanke wird drucken ohne zu fragen und darueber nichts berichten.
Es wird das Geheimniss von Amerika wieviel man druckt und ab naechstes Jahr laeuft die Druckerpresse auf Hochtouren.... Zeit zu fluechten, wer es noch nicht gemacht hat. Die besten Anlagen sind Gold, Silber, Uranium, und sogar Health Food sagte ein Analyst bei einen Interview.
Die Saudi's und Kuwaiti's haben nun Peakproduktion erreicht und es wurde nur in zwei Quellen veroeffentlicht, wenn ein Peak da ist geht es dem Ende zu und Oil wird bald wieder nach der Korrektur die im Moment ist enorm steigen. Uranium wird dann gebraucht, da fuehrt kein Weg vorbei.

See soon signs of stress, discontent, and depression.

Gruss, Eldo

Flucht in den sicheren Hafen

Gold - Kolumne
von Marc Faber

Seit dem Monat März 2001 ist der Goldpreis von 255 auf über 500 Dollar gestiegen. Zwischen 2001 und 2004 habe der Kurs für das Edelmetall lediglich aufgrund des schwachen Dollarkurses zugelegt, meinen Experten. Aber dieses Jahr hat sich der Greenback gegenüber den meisten ausländischen Währungen gefestigt und trotzdem ist der Goldpreis gestiegen. Also müssen auch andere Gründe für die Gold-Hausse verantwortlich sein. Historische Fakten belegen, daß zu Inflationszeiten Gold an Wert gewinnt. Vertrauen in die Werthaltigkeit der Banknoten schwindet, wenn die Kaufkraft des Papiergeldes abnimmt. Eine verringerte Kaufkraft des Geldes resultiert aus stark ansteigenden Konsumentenpreisen oder explodierenden Vermögensgüterpreisen. In beiden Fällen, wird das Vertrauen in die Währung erschüttert, weil jedes Jahr wesentlich mehr Bargeld benützt werden muß, um den gleichen Warenkorb oder die gleiche Immobilie zu erwerben. Also versuchen sich die Menschen vor dieser Geldentwertung mit dem Erwerb harter Wertanlagen - deren Menge nicht unbeliebig durch unverantwortliche Notenbanken verwässert werden kann - zu schützen. Interessant in dieser Beziehung ist, daß insbesondere nachdem Ben Bernanke als Chef der US-Notenbank (Fed) ernannt wurde, der Goldpreis nach oben schoß. Der neue Mann hat den Ruf, daß er - sollte eine Deflation drohen - alle Gegenmittel der Geldpolitik einsetzten und die Notenpressen anwerfen wird. Dabei muß man berücksichtigen, daß die Fed nicht unglücklich ist über fallende Importpreise, die aufgrund massiver Produktivitätszunahmen in China zustande kommen. Vielmehr herrscht die Sorge vor, daß fallende Immobilien und Aktienpreise den Konsum der Amerikaner, von dem letztlich die Konjunktur abhängt, beeinträchtigen könnten. Deshalb dürfte langfristig die Geldpolitik der Amerikaner einen inflationären Charakter behalten und damit alle harten Vermögenswerte weiter im Wert steigen. Dagegen sollten angesichts der Liquiditätsspritzen die meisten anderen Vermögenswerte gegenüber Gold als Hartwährung an Wert verlieren. Dabei ist es wichtig, einmal das Verhältnis von Dow Jones zum Gold zu betrachten. Im Jahre 2000 brauchte ein Anleger noch 45 Unzen Gold, um eine Einheit Dow Jones zu erwerben. Heute braucht er aber nur noch 22 Unzen, um den gleichen Dow-Jones-Anteil zu kaufen. Mit anderen Worten, Gold hat gegenüber dem Dow Jones seit 2000 über 100 Prozent an Wert gewonnen. Nun ist es schon möglich, wie einige Börsengurus im Jahre 1999 prophezeiten, daß der Dow Jones in den nächsten Jahren auf 36 000, 40 000 oder sogar 100 000 Zähler steigen wird. Vorausgesetzt die Fed erhöht signifikant den Geldumlauf. Allerdings würde eine derartig inflationäre Geldpolitik von einem schwachen Dollar begleitet. Falls dabei der Dow Jones wirklich auf 36 000 Zähler steigen sollte, könnte der Goldpreis leicht auf 3600 Dollar klettern.
Damit würde ein Anleger nur noch zehn Unzen Gold benötigen, um einen Dow-Jones-Anteil zu erwerben und könnte eine Unze Gold in 3600 Dollar wechseln anstatt wie heute in nur rund 500 Dollar.

Artikel erschienen am Sa, 3. Dezember 2005

Gmorning Edel

Bei den Traumratios von Faber und den andern bei Gold/Dow sind wir dann nur mehr im Urlaub.

Dann diese Rakete noch oben drauf dann fehlt uns nur mehr die Zeit im Urlaub.

Die Rente ist gesichert, die beste Anlage fuer viele Jahre, wir sind mit dabei.

The Daily Reckoning - Weekend Edition
December 3-4, 2005
Baltimore, Maryland
by James Boric

MARKET REVIEW: THE INDIAN STORY YOU HAVEN'T HEARD - YET
How do you invest in India?

This has been a popular question for years now - especially here at The
Daily Reckoning headquarters. And how could it not?

India has the 12th largest economy in the world. Real GDP growth weighed
in at 8.17% for FY 2004 - double that of the United States. It adds the
equivalent of a Canada to its middle class each year. Real wages are on
the rise. And just about every major sector in India is growing. You know
the stats...

- India's mobile phone sector is up 53% in the last 18 months
- Between now and 2007, India has earmarked over $117 billion to improve
its infrastructure (power plants, ports, roads and airports)
- And the banking sector in India is on the rise as more and more Indians
are taking out loans to buy their first house and car.

Chances are, you could invest in any of these sectors and do very well for
yourself over the next 10 years. But there is a far bigger story to be
told about India - one which 99.9% of Americans know nothing about.

While every economist in the United States is busy crunching the same old
boring India stats to make their bullish case, I've spent a lot of time
following a developing opportunity that is playing out right now in
Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and every city in India. This opportunity is far
bigger than anything you have heard about before. Every high-ranking
Indian business leader and political figure is involved. Every mom-and-pop
shop-owner has a strong opinion. And every Fortune 500 company (including
Microsoft, GE and Wal-Mart) is trying to get in on the deal.

The opportunity is still in the developing stages. But when it finally
comes to fruition - and it certainly will - the profits will be measured
in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

The opportunity I am referring to is India's impending decision to
permanently open up its $200 billion retail sector to foreign investment
for the first time ever.

As it stands now, India's retail sector is closed to the world. No
American outfit (or European or Asian for that matter) can set up shop in
India unless it agrees to a diluted partnership with an existing Indian
business. Those partnerships involve splitting revenues, paying
ridiculously high taxes and forgoing the right to own the land they
operate on.

Basically, India makes it as hard as possible for any foreign company to
compete with its mom and pop storeowners. And it's no wonder why. Those
small shop owners account for 98% of all retail sales made in India each
year - totaling more than $200 billion. And it's been this way ever since
the British pulled out of India in 1947.

But it's about to change.

India's current prime minister, M. Singh, is a major believer in free
markets and open competition. He understands that foreign investment and
competition lead to more jobs, more taxes and more revenues in the long
run - even though it forces those who can't compete (your small business
owners) out of business in the short term. And he's proven what
competition does for an economy's overall health.

Since taking office in 2004, Singh has increased foreign investment from
26% to 49% in the insurance sector. He raised foreign investment levels in
the telecom sector from 25% to 74%. And he allowed foreigners to own up to
49% in Indian airline companies, as opposed to 40% a year ago.

The result: India's insurance sector rose 62.3% in the past year. The
telecom sector rose 102.67%. And the airline traffic shot up 25%.
Even before his reign as Prime Minister, Singh developed a strong track
record of opening India up to the world. In 1991, India was on the brink
of bankruptcy. Its debt equaled 8.5% of its GDP. Its current account
deficit was nearly 3.5% of GDP. And India had only about $1 billion in
reserves sitting in the bank.

Singh, then serving as India's finance minister, immediately rolled up his
sleeves, took out a $5 billion IMF loan and opened the country up to
foreign direct investment and foreign competition. He simplified the tax
structure. He lowered many of the ridiculously high tariffs. And he
slashed subsidies for domestically produced goods.

The result: India's economy grew between 6-7% each year after. It now has
over $145 billion in foreign reserves in the bank. And the Indian stock
market is up 505.6%.

And now he has vowed to open India's largest remaining private sector to
foreign investment and competition - its $200 billion retail sector. In
fact, in an interview with India's Financial Times, Singh said he would
like this to happen by the end of this year.

Of course, I don't expect that to happen so quickly - although it could.
Chances are it will take another year (or several) to get the job done.
But when it does happen, look out.

The last time anything like this happened in Asia was in 1992. That's when
China opened its then $75 billion retail sector up to foreign competition.
Here's what's happened afterwards...

- The Shanghai Stock Exchange's market value soared 44 times over
- The Hang Seng Stock Exchange rose as much as 314%
- Total wholesale and retail trade increased 393.3% in the next 10 years
- The number of supermarkets increased 1,068.24%
- Retail employment nearly doubled.

Now the same thing is likely going to happen in India. The only question
is, how soon? Based on Singh's track record over the last 15 years as a
prominent Indian political leader, it will be sooner versus later. But to
find out for myself, I am headed back to India in February. Of course,
I'll keep you posted on what I find.

James Boric
for The Daily Reckoning

Goldy,

du meinst sicherlich GoldyThread und nicht golfytread.

re:
Our WAIT tag says all that is to say. Keep on staying short or at cash until the next signal. Do not bother yourself with any further buying or selling, as long as the WAIT tag stays.

Grundsätzlich ist die Kunst zu warten bis sich die Dinge klären,
eine gute Eigenschaft.

Nur, wie jeder Fischer weiss, es ist besser und einträglicher,
mit einem vollen Boot vorm Hafen auf die einlaufende Flut zu warten.
Mit einem leeeren bleibt man besser gleich draussen.

Oder wie es ein Bauer ausdrücken würde: Winterheu ist erst Winterheu,
wenn es trocken in der Scheune liegt.

Goldy, ich weiss wirklich nicht, was ich von dir halten soll.
Bisweilen habe ich dass Gefühl, du hast dich in Wirklichkeit bereits
vollgesogen mit Gold und Silber und versuchst nur deine Unsicherheiten,
was die Zukunft dieses Investments betrifft, an den Mann/die Frau zu bringen.

Gruss

Germoney

Indian Demand this week

There is no doubt that the Indian buyer is still looking with absolute disbelief and distrust at the market in gold. Buyers are grumbling and sellers are delighted because gold has risen from Rs 6,100 to Rs 7,500 a 23% increase in the last three months. Retail sales have come down 40 to 50%, with scrap taking the place of imports to top up stock levels, which have barely moved in the last few months, across all Indian States.

India was importing 50 tonnes a month previously, which gives us an indication of the level of scrap sales. Imports are zero in the last three months. Indians are now selling! So knock 150 tonnes off last year’s levels of imports for the second half of the year, to date.

It could be that India continues to rely on scrap sales for the next 2 – 3 months, but after that going forward to April / May, would Farmers and Fathers with daughters wanting a gold dowry, enter the market as buyers at the high levels? That remains a possibility. Impatient daughters and wives [with raised eyebrows] won’t wait and don’t care about prices. Indeed the higher the price the better the dowry?

The question is at what price will Indians begin to dishoard? Forget the $ price, they don’t look at $500, they look at Rs 7,500 and rising up Rs 1,500 in three months. Bear in mind that they get used to a price and then they come to believe it will hold, but this takes time, but how long? The answer lies in the gold price action.

· ‘Spiking’ will precipitate large volumes of dishoarding, but will that be at Rs 8,000 or more?

· A steady consolidation followed by mild, but consolidating, appreciation will discourage dishoarding.

· Short “Spikes” with pullbacks to a previously established ‘floor’ will possibly attract Indian physical buyers.

If the rest of the gold market keeps the gold price high and rising dishoarding will come out and Indians have 20,000 tonnes of gold hoarded. But they love gold. They will only dishoard if they believe the gold price is too high and going to come down. If they believe it is high but going to stay there, or go higher, they may well accept the fact and buy. They just don’t want to be caught by dropping prices, when they can profit or buy back lower down. They are in a mental whirl at the moment and perhaps struggling with the price more than any other sector of the market!

So the next question, after they have dishoarded, at what price [after it has made a ‘floor’] will they return to the market. After all, the only reason they will dishoard is to buy back at a lower price.

We are certain of one fact and that is Indians don’t stop buying gold, they simply postpone their purchases until the price is right!

Chinese Gold Prices

Chinese consumers keep buying, despite the rising, exorbitant, retail price of the gold in a market where the premium is way above the international price.

In Nanning, the capital city of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, gold price has jumped to 176 Yuan or 22 US$ per gram [U.S.$709 per ounce], this is 40% higher than the $ price in London. In Shanghai, the gold price is 157 Yuan per gram [U.S.$632.52 per ounce], 25.25% higher than the U.S.$ gold price.

Nothing could better illustrate why the Chinese gold market is still in its infancy and will remain so until the gold distribution network in China is considerably better developed, so dealers cannot get away with such mark-ups. Should this distribution network develop, not only will the premium on the retail price of gold drop, but the potential volumes that the Chinese market could take, would absorb any amount of dishoarding from India where there is a superbly developed distribution network.

What an opportunity, if the authorities permit such a development? Imagine the arbitrage opportunity there now? Forget any potential revaluation of the Yuan having a negative impact on the Yuan gold price. The development of the Chinese distribution network, will, of itself lower the premium but raise the international gold price as the potential increase in sales, draws in the gold from global markets!

This is where the bullion banks should be focussing their efforts.

On January 22, 2001, two days after George W. Bush was inaugurated as President of the United States, the price of gold was $265.90 an ounce. Last week the gold price broke through the $500 dollars an ounce level; that means the dollar has been devalued in terms of gold by almost 50 per cent in the four years and ten months of this presidency.

That does not reflect well on Gordon Brown, who as Chancellor sold a large part of Britain’s gold reserve at a price that was way below the present level. It reflects even worse on President Bush. He is ultimately responsible for the management of the dollar. It has halved its gold value on his watch.

The rise in the gold price does not come as a surprise. Many commentators, including myself, had forecast that gold would rise to these levels. My forecast was that gold would reach $500, and when it broke through $500 would move on towards $1,000 an ounce. It would now require a radical change in US financial policy to stabilise the dollar; I do not think such a change is at all likely. So far, President Bush has been very reliable as an agent of dollar devaluation.

There are technical reasons, both on the supply and demand side, that make it probable that the gold price will continue to rise. Yet it was not these technical market reasons that led some of us to forecast the higher price, but the underlying weakness of the financial policy of the United States.

Alan Greenspan, the retiring Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, deserves his own considerable share of responsibility, all the more so because he saw the risks of combining large budget deficits with growing trade deficits and loose monetary conditions. That is a classic recipe for depreciating a currency. From time to time Alan Greenspan has sounded a warning; he has been willing to blow the whistle, but he has never been willing to pull on the brakes.

Last week, he made his farewell speech to the G7 finance ministers in London, and gave another belated warning. “If the pernicious drift towards fiscal instability in the United States and elsewhere is not arrested, and is compounded by a protectionist reversal of globalisation, the adjustment process could be quite painful for the world economy.”

The phrase “pernicious drift towards fiscal instability” is an amazing statement of any chairman of the Fed about any president, all the more extraordinary when it comes from as cautious a man as Alan Greenspan about a President whom he still serves. Incidentally, it applies just as much to Gordon Brown as to George Bush. “And elsewhere” refers to the “pernicious drift” in UK policy.

No doubt the fall of the dollar could have been matched by a rise in the euro; it is possible for people to switch between currencies, rather than into gold. But the euro itself is now a suspect currency. Many people doubt whether it will be possible for Italy to remain inside the euro straitjacket. Gold is better than the dollar, and better than the euro as well.

The rise in the gold price is a natural consequence of the inflationary fiscal and monetary policies of the United States. That has produced a very widespread inflation in the value of real assets, an inflation that is apparent in the global housing market, most of all in the British and American housing markets.

Gold is a natural alternative investment for the Asian countries, particularly China, India and Japan. These countries have a stronger tradition of investing in gold; their economies are growing much faster than those of the West. They already have more dollars than they really want. It has been probable for a long time that they would increasingly invest their surplus dollars in buying gold. That must make sense for them. Now there is far more private wealth in China and some of that is being invested in gold. Central banks may have a reason for supporting the dollar. Asian billionaires want profits.

One can go back to the basic logic of exchange markets, to Irving Fisher’s equation of exchange, or to Mademoiselle Zélie’s experience in Polynesia with coconuts. The US has created too many dollars; the twin US deficits are pumping out more of them all the time.

The wise virgins still have gold, but the foolish virgins, like our own Chancellor, sold most of it years ago. The age-old discipline of supply and demand leaves the dollar with only one way to go. Gold will continue to rise in value so long as the United States is at war, the US budget is in deficit, the US trade account is in deficit and George Bush is in the White House. You can bet 5,000 coconuts on that.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,1052-1904459,00.html

"The wise virgins still have gold, but the foolish virgins, like our own Chancellor, sold most of it years ago"

[Blockierte Grafik: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f7/ThreeFoolishVirginsMagdeburg.jpg/473px-ThreeFoolishVirginsMagdeburg.jpg]

Er sieht Gold auf 12 Monats Sicht bei 600$

Heute Morgen auf Bloomberg, T.Denin Rohstoffexperte der DB.
Begründungen: Steigende Nachfrage (Indien +47%,China, Schmuckindustrie), nachlassende Produktion (vorallem Südaf, Problematik des starken Rand, viele Minen mußten schließen).

Silber bei 10$ auf 12 Monats Sicht, solange keine signifikanten Verkäufe bekanntgegeben werden (Zentralbank Russland + China).

"...„Gold gilt als Absicherung gegen Inflation, und Öl ist der wichtigste Treiber der Teuerung“..."

Quelle:
http://www.handelsblatt.de/psh…hbi/sfn/buildhbi/cn/GoArt!200007,203855,1000368/SH/0/depot/0/index.html

Nicht gerade erfreulich ist die Entwicklung der PM Aktien im Vergleich zu den PM-Preisen in den letzten Tagen.
Bei den folgenden Gedanken, die zum Potential von PM Stocks gemacht wurden, musste ich Schmunzeln:

Some of the Jrs may have gold but it costs them 450 to get an ounce out of the ground. Well we will say the price of gold is 500 so they are making 50 an ounce. You take another miner that is able to produce at say 250 an ounce so they are making 250 on every ounce. This will be reflected in the current stock price.

Now lets say the price of gold increases to 550 an ounce. The miner with the cost of 450 sees profits double while the miner with the 250 costs will only see profits gain by 20%

Sometimes you will get your biggest gains in the stocks that have high costs.

Hat doch was, oder nicht?

Bei Minen, Juniors und Explorer bin ich (noch lange) ein blindes Huhn, aber zu dem Ergebniss von dem engl. Beitrag reicht es trotz Blindheit nicht