Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Zitat

Original von Eldorado
As a result, "a severe correction over the next days is unlikely, with an upward bias remaining," he said, pegging gold within reach of the $580-to-600 level and silver at $10 an ounce over the short run.

Moin Goldbug(s),

also ich finde ja, wir haben eine sehr ausgeprägte Korrektur. In Richtung 650 USD in diesem Jahr. Was übrigens lediglich moderaten 30% p. a. entspräche. Nichts besonderes, das gabs schon im letzten Jahr. Manche Aktien machen da größere Hüpfer.

Ich mach jetzt Brechfest. Ähm, Breakfast.

Goldige Grüße

von einem Goldfreak

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
Besonders belustigend: der M.Guru liegt wieder vollkommen daneben,soeben wurde das JH bei Gold übertroffen,statt einzubrechen.
Allmählich kann der einem leid tun.

Grüsse
Edel Man

Ja, die Gurus. Sie beherzigen meist eine alte aber wahre Weisheit nicht: "Ich weiß, dass ich nichts weiß!". Wenn man meint, man steht über den Dingen, wumm, stehen die Dinge über einem. Wenn man jetzt "Ding" in POG übersetzt ...

Eine sehr treffende Lagebeschreibung:

http://www.goldseiten.de/modul…visit.php?cid=1&lid=23661

Espressionistische Grüße

KR

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
Trifft aber auch für Silber zu .Da redet der verirrte Guru von 9,90 als Jahreshoch.
Und dann der Dollar! !Der müsste schon seit Monaten auf 96 stehen.

Silber, na klar! Wobei ich mich aufs Gold spezialisiert habe.

Zitat

Warum trete ich das eigentlich so oft breit?
Weil es sich bewährt,seine eigene,komplexe Entscheidungsfindung zu betreiben,und sonst gaaarnichs.
Nunja,Meinungsaustausch zwischen uns Forenmitgliedern natürlich ebenso.

Das kannst Du gar nicht oft genug schreiben! Ich wette, von 10000 Anlegern treffen vielleicht 10 ihre Entscheidung nicht auf Grund der Aussage von Gurus oder "Experten". Was dann auch regelmäßig im Desaster für die anderen 9990 endet. Ich hab' noch so einige Postings hier in Erinnerung, wo die Urheber seit Monaten auf einen POG von 350 Euro warten. Na denn, wartet man schön. Wir verdienen zwischenzeitlich an steigenden Kursen. In ein paar Jahren könnt Ihr dann meine KRs für 35000 Euro haben. Stückpreis. Zur Not nehm ich auch die Villa.

Zitat

Aber derartige Gurus haben mE.nicht mehr als einigen Unterhaltungswert.

In einer derartig lang angelegten Hausse sind zu viele Unkenrufe mE.unsinnig.

Nachdenkliche Grüsse
Edel Man

Ja, es amüsiert wahrhaft köstlich! Man sieht doch ganz deutlich, dass die Leute wie wild nachkaufen, wenn der Preis mal 1 Euro nach unten geht. Und dann habe ich kürzlich einen Bericht gelesen, dass jetzt die Zeit gekommen ist, dass institutionelle Anleger dieses Jahr einsteigen werden.

Aber, freuen wir uns über die Pessimisten!

Schöne Grüße

KR

Mit dem Fiat-Money.

Palladium >300
Gold >574
HUI bricht auch wieder nach oben aus.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/palladium/t24_pd_en_usoz_2.gif]

Man sieht, die Korrektur von Fiat-Money ist in vollem Gange!

Wie schön, daß ich vor zwei Wochen meine non-performing Jim Roger Indexzertifikate ver- und calls auf Palladium gekauft habe. Das hat Bewegung ins Depot gebracht.

Im Moment amüsieren mich auch die Jungs von proaurum (obwohl ich die sehr symphatisch und ihren Marktbericht sehr informativ finde), die seit Tagen schreiben, daß sie auf die Gelegenheit zum Wiedereinstieg in den Goldmarkt warten ...

Wärt ihr doch nur nie ausgestiegen.

Eine Korrektur wird es sicher geben. Nur wann und auf welchem Niveau?
Eins ist auch sicher, bei der nächsten Korrektur, kaufe ich wieder schön nach ...

Viele Grüße

liberty

Soll ich mir nun den 12 Zylinder Audi A8 oder den V8 kaufen.
Nichts geht ueber Laufruhe und Performance...

Zitat

Original von Eldorado
Soll ich mir nun den 12 Zylinder Audi A8 oder den V8 kaufen.
Nichts geht ueber Laufruhe und Performance...

Also, ich denke da mehr in Reichweite, maximales Steigen und Cruise Speed. Und natürlich Zuladung. Für die Barren.

Aber Audi soll ganz pfundig sein, was Autobau angeht.

Der Chart da unten erinnert mich wieder an Mauselöcher. Vor Christmas war es das 503er Mauseloch und jetzt ist es das 570er Mauseloch. Ob den Zusammenhang auch ein künstliches neuronales Netz rausbekommen hätte?
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif]

Viele Grüße

vom KR

Auch wenn es vielleicht nicht ganz hier rein gehört.

Palladium ist auf z.Zt. 317 hochgeschossen.
Hat da jemand eine Nachricht dazu gelesen?

Vielen Dank und Grüße

liberty

Schwer zu sagen woher der Wind so stark bläßt.
Eine Nachricht ist mir nicht bekannt. Ich beobachte den Markt permanent.

Vor 3 Tagen habe ich aber alle meine Futures auf Palladium verkauft.
Seit dem steigt der Preis unaufhörlich.

Ich habe rational mit Gewinn verkauft in einem irrationalen Markt. Da passieren halt die dollsten Sachen! Mit Ratio oder Nachrichten kommt man in so einem Markt nicht weit.

Gruß Osterhase

Zitat

Original von libertyEine Korrektur wird es sicher geben. Nur wann und auf welchem Niveau?
Eins ist auch sicher, bei der nächsten Korrektur, kaufe ich wieder schön nach ...liberty

Was meint ihr, was für eine Korrektur ist realistisch? Möchte auch noch mal nachlegen, aber natürlich nicht in der rasantesten Nordbewegung

Kennt jemand von Euch eine Seite, wo ich die Tagescharts der Vergangenheit ansehen kann?

Insbesondere interessieren mich die Charts von Freitags im vergangenen Jahr...

Leute ,

ich glaube das wars fürs erste.
Ich kann mich irren aber diesmal hat der Mahendra doch recht !

Warte erstmal auf bessere Kurse März, April.

The number of attendees at the San Francisco investment conference in November last year was about the same as it had been six years ago when gold was half the price, and was consistent with my conclusion that we were not in a gold bull market but in a dollar bear market. That meant that the increase in the dollar gold price merely reflected a lower US dollar exchange rate. But by then the gold price had already increased substantially in many currencies, unrelated to the US dollar exchange rate. My conclusion at the time was that if, indeed, we had entered a real gold bull market, then the bull was still a calf (see: "Which phase are we in?" at http://www.paulvaneeden.com in the Commentary Section).

After the Vancouver investment conference two weekends ago I can confidently report that there is no doubt we are in a gold bull market and my natural instinct, after seeing the crowds in Vancouver, is to sell and run for the hills. Yet my prognosis for the US economy seems to be coming to pass. When hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds and central banks all stare each other in the eye, waiting for the first one to blink so that they can unload their dollars, the beneficiary will be gold.

Economic growth in the US during the last quarter of 2005 was the weakest it had been in three years. That does not say much, given how robust the economy has been: we have to keep in mind that the US was recovering from two horrendous hurricanes, rising energy prices and rising interest rates. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve just raised interest rates again this week and energy prices are not coming down.

Ford and General Motors are cutting about 60,000 jobs between them. Ford announced last week that it will cut its work force by 28% and plans to close fourteen North American factories. One could argue that the auto industry in the US is getting hit particularly hard by rising gasoline prices and that it is folly to put too much emphasis on it. That is certainly true, but in conjunction with everything else I doubt the effect will be constrained to autos and airlines.

The boom in real estate values that kept the economy moving after the stock market peaked is now also over. December saw housing starts decrease by 8.9%, with a 12.3% decline in single-family home starts. Housing prices also declined in December and the inventory of homes for sale increased. If interest rates were to start falling again now then the real estate market could get a shot in the arm, although I doubt that it will be sufficient to overcome the speculation that has built up in the sector.

Still, the reason I do not see the US economy or the US dollar recover is simply the twin deficits. My understanding of economics is very rudimentary: I know that price reflects the equilibrium between supply and demand. If you increase the supply of something, without offsetting demand, then prices will drop. The US fiscal deficit requires it to issue bonds to meet its spending programs. Eventually bond prices will drop as a result of the increase in the number of bonds outstanding and since interest rates rise when bond prices fall, it means US medium to long-term interest rates are going to go up, regardless of what the Fed does.

At the same time, the US trade deficit is increasing the amount of dollars held by foreigners and this will eventually cause the US dollar exchange rate to fall as well, much more than it already has. Even though it may be counter-intuitive, I believe there is a high probability that we will enter a period during which US (medium and long-term) interest rates will rise along with a decline in the US dollar exchange rate. When that happens I also expect the gold price to increase dramatically as a result of all those fund managers and central bankers staring at each other.

But the world doesn't always work the way I think it should. The gold price could rise for a myriad of reasons and there is no guarantee that it will rise at all. We are all bullish on gold, but that does not mean we are right. The only thing I am absolutely sure of is that volatility in the gold price is going to increase. It will whipsaw a lot of people out of profits and into losses and it will create opportunities for others. I hope you are one of the latter.

Paul van Eeden

When Gold is Google

By Eric J. Fry

Commodities are rallying...and because they are rallying,
investors are buying them...and because investors are
buying them, commodities are rallying. You get the idea.

Commodities are red-hot...and everyone knows it. Even so,
almost no one knows exactly what to do about it. Should we
be buying $65 crude oil or selling it? Should we be buying
$570 gold, or selling it? Should we by buying 19-cent sugar
or selling it? Or if we are stock investors, should we be
buying ExxonMobil and Archer Daniels Midland and Phelps
Dodge, or selling them? The answers are not self-evident,
especially because many large institutional investors have
decided to throw money at the commodity markets.

"Billions of dollars of long-only index-fund money is
pouring into these markets," explains Richard Morrow,
founder of Bullfrog Capital Management. "And that's
throwing the traditional fundamental influences all out of
whack. These markets are just too small to handle an influx
of money this large."

"How small is small?" I ask.

"If you added up the entire value of the 2005/06 corn,
wheat, soybean, cotton and rice crops they would total
roughly 60 billion dollars. In other words, the entire
U.S. Agricultural row crop sector is 1/200 the size of the
S&P500. So this new liquidity that's pouring into 'our
markets' cannot be efficiently absorbed."

"Sounds like you've got two sets of 'fundamentals'
influencing the commodity markets,' I suggest. "You've got
real-world demand for the commodities themselves; and
you've got index-fund demand."

"Right," Richard agrees, "and the interaction between these
two different sets of fundamentals have created extreme
price inefficiencies."

"Give me some examples," I ask.

"We're going to have the biggest US and world soybean crop
ever, with the largest carryout ever. And beans are $6.00.
They just shouldn't be up here. With record U.S. and world
soy carryout [Editor's note: "carryout" refers to the end-
of-season stockpile] and big U.S. soy acreage coming, I'm
looking for an opportunity on the short side of the soy
market. Cotton is another interesting one. The funds are
record-long into one of the largest US carryouts ever! The
U.S. crop is materially larger than a month ago and the
U.S. domestic consumption is falling like a stone from
already low levels. Furthermore, cotton exports are running
below pace to meet the USDA estimate. So it is very
possible that the U.S. will end up with a cotton carryout
over 8.0 mil bales. This would be the largest carryout in
history and is more indicative of sub 45-cent July cotton
rather than 58-cent cotton."

"He who has the money makes the rules, I guess."

"Yep," Richard agrees, "We're no longer in a world market
for commodities, or even a U.S. market; we're in an index-
fund market. The markets that I trade are being swamped by
long only index money. Cotton, corn, wheat and cattle all
have record open interest due to the tidal wave of index
fund flows. These markets are simply too small to handle
these huge inflows on a weekly basis.

"If it is any comfort to you," I reply, "index-fund money
seems to be sloshing around in all the commodity markets."

"Oh yeah, I know," says Richard. "I think you've got about
$20 of index-fund premium in the crude oil market right
now. Crude should be trading about 5.8x natural gas on a
BTU basis. But the current ratio is 7.3 to 1, or 26% over
valued. And I think natural gas is way overvalued. Natural
gas inventories are going to all-time highs. How anyone can
be bullish $9 natural gas is beyond me."

"What about gold?"

"Same story," Richard relates. "The inflows into gold and
silver are simply huge. We have no idea how high these
markets are going. Our feeling is that gold is the 'new
Google.' Investors want to own it at any price...I can tell
you this; if the money-flow into these markets stops,
there's going to be some great opportunities on the short
side."

"Yeah, that's true," I agree, "but you might need to wait a
while for that to happen. The fundamental short-sellers are
almost always too early."

"Maybe so," says Richard, "but I don't want to get carried
away with all that. I'm still finding opportunities to
trade...It's just that the game has changed."

"Thanks Richard...and good luck."

Le Metropole Members,

Hugo Salinas Price has served commentary at The Dos
Passos Table entitled, "WHAT'S UP WITH GOLD?."

"Today, there is not enough gold offered for sale to
satisfy demand for gold at $550 dollars an ounce. Gigantic quantities of paper money and magnetic money all over the
world are seeking a safe haven in all sorts of tangible and valuable goods, a place where the purchasing power of this
money will be protected against the depreciation of fiat.
The WBCs today either cannot or do not wish to let go of
gold in quantities sufficient to keep the price of gold
in check."

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jim O'Connell, host of "Business Morning" on Report
on Business Television in Canada, today interviewed
John Ing, president of Maison Placements in Toronto
and the firm's gold market analyst, about gold's
prospects, and the questions included one about the
Credit Agricole / Cheuvreux report endorsing GATA's
findings that central banks have been suppressing
the gold price.

Ing said he found it hard to believe that many central
banks, bullion banks, and mining companies have been
conspiring -- which isn't quite GATA's assertion -- but
he added that gold derivatives have gotten so big and
there is so much "paper gold out there" that certain
issuers of gold derivatives are "very vulnerable" and
"there will be an accident."
So let's hear it for covering the intersection of Broad
and Wall Streets with banana peels.

GATA is ever grateful to ROB-TV and O'Connell for
pursuing gold issues closely and allowing GATA to be
mentioned.

For one week you can watch the ROB-TV interview with
Ing at the ROB-TV archive here:

http://www.robtv.com/shows/past_archive.tv

It is the ninth item from the top, appearing at 11:13
a.m.