Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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The John Brimelow Report

Why is open interest rising?

Friday, May 07, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.79, PM $8.77, with world gold at $386.50 and $386.20. Lavish for legal imports. Reuters from London quotes a trader saying:

Zitat

"… the physical market has been quite good for the last couple of months…It is actually quite hard to get bars in places like India and Dubai, the refineries are working flat out."

Japan found little of interest in gold today. TOCOM volume slipped by 14% to equal only 21,401 Comex, with the active contract down 8 yen. World gold was down $1.40 from NY’s close at the end. Some commentators claim there has been selling from Tokyo on the two days they have been open, but today’s open interest increase equal to 662 Comex lots offset yesterdays decline, and the member’s open interest position does not suggest liquidation by the public either. Weakness in the yen, of which there has been a good deal since Tokyo closed, usually triggers TOCOM buying. Shanghai continues closed.

With open interest in NY yesterday rising 6,207 contracts to 254,512 on volume of 50,204 lots some serious short selling seems to be underway. Estimated Comex volume at 11 am today was a steep 60,000. With noisy bears all over the tape, apparently the only party seeing utility in gold is O. Bin Laden.

JB

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Perhaps all the market shenanigans and doctored inflation reports (CPI and delayed PPI) are finally catching up to the Working Group on Financial Markets.

The DOW fell 124 to 10,117 and the DOG sank 20 to 1918. The stock market action is terrible and likely to get much worse. The bond market action suggests inflation is far worse than what is acknowledged and likely to have a severe impact on the US economy in the months to come.

The good news:

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. companies added 288,000 workers in April and the unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent. April's gains brought the increase in the last two months to the most since March and April of 2000, providing President George W. Bush with evidence that his economic policies are working.
The increase exceeded the highest forecast and follows a revised gain of 337,000 jobs in March that was larger than estimated last month, the Labor Department reported in Washington. Services added 246,000 jobs and manufacturers added the most jobs since July 2000. –END-

Another view on the real jobs picture, perhaps what the stock market players sense is the real deal:

From George Ure at http://www.urbansurvival.com:

Decoupling from Reality

The report on jobs came out on schedule this morning, but while it showed healthy job growth on paper, the administration has a couple of problems with the report. First, even with the gains, Bushco is still down 1.5 million jobs during their term by their own numbers, and by our reckoning, at least twice that in real life. The spin sounds good (and example at http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040507/economy_3.html ) but the harsh reality shows up when you really tear into the numbers. For one thing, the number of severely under-utilized people has dropped to 9.3% in table U-6 (Alternative measures of unemployment) but again, it depends who's doing the measuring. The number of people falling off the rolls has continued unabated. so as benefits run out, people are not counted.

Now let me point out a few glitches in today's data:

The labor participation rate actually got worse. Down to 65.7% of the workforce from 65.8 last month. Don't ask me to explain how the participation rate can go down when jobs is up - and the workforce is essentially flat - because I can't justify the penciling at BLS anymore than I can explain Biblical miracles.
About half a million more people (~475,000) disappeared as not in the labor force.
It's still a "shop-keeper economy" with few goods producing jobs. The services sector was up 409,000 jobs compared with a year ago.
The good news for me is that I am employed again - but on a personal services contract for now - and while I'm working this way, I'm not paying into the state unemployment comp funds, which means I'm not able to recharge my unemployment benefits. Still, it's good to be working - and I have to assume there are perhaps a hundred thousand or more folks like me out there.

The problem for the Fed, of course, is that this means the economy really is heating up in some fashion - and that will drive oil upward, I expect beyond the $40/barrel level and then rates will go up and we will have experienced a complete non-recovery "recovery" before the next downturn sets in. Meanwhile, the price of gold took another hit today, which is damn curious because gold is a hard asset and ought to be going up in value as general prices paid rise, and even more so because if the increase in employment becomes robust, rate hike or not, people might be able to buy jewelry now and then.

-END-

Inflation, inflation, inflation:

The Weekend Journal says expect to pay more for summer fun

After several years of holding prices steady, retailers and others across the country are rising prices in the face of an improving economy. Some of the increases reflect the increase in the cost of underlying commodities, such as oil approaching $40 a barrel. But some of the increases come after several years of lower or steady prices. DIS' Disney World will cost 5% more than last year and Universal Studios is increasing its price to match DIS. Some national parks are increasing fees to make up for lost public funding. Refreshments at sporting events are going up as well. But the news is not all bad, many items cost the same or less than last year, such as chlorine for the pool. (fwiw last statement not true, 50lbs chlorine up $8.00 at BJ's)

-END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Federal Reserve added $3.5 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today May 7th, 2004, an action that moved the repo pool up to $31.67 Billion. Yesterday the Fed to action later in the day (which it sometimes does) and added $3.5 Billion. The new total $31.67 represents the current pool total, with corrections (including those brought to my attention by a thoughtful reader. I welcome participation by readers as the calculations aren't straightforward and the Fed acts at different times. The trends remain in place.

Exits?

As mentioned yesterday the Fed seems to have no exit strategy from their sell gold and now mute, "Strong dollar" policy. Although many readers are hurting as the precious metals shares slump and are gaining new appreciation for the Fed's guns, the gold cartel is actually still retreating. Their gold supplies will run out, even larval gold bugs quickly come to that conclusion. Professor Fekete warns us that our opponents aren't stupid nor are they suicidal. We accept that the Fed isn't stupid, where I disagree with professor Fekete, is in the Fed's particular type of suicide.

There are many forms of suicide. "Base jumping" (leaping off low cliffs with parachutes), cave SCUBA diving, bungee jumping and many other potentially lethal "sports" and they all infect their adherents with a special delusion. A flawed belief mechanism that they think renders them immune from harm.

The Lusitania

Such warped belief mechanisms infect everyone to some degree but it takes a great tragedy to disclose the really big failures in thinking. In Diana Preston's Lusitania, the awful reality of a new chapter in submarine warfare, an Admiralty in denial about it coupled with naval architects who couldn't conceive of a ship sinking in 18 minutes that left 1201 of 1959 on board dead including 94 of 129 children and 34 of 36 babies.

Only one of 26 large (high side) port-side life boats were launched successfully with chaos sweeping all through the boat. The safety procedures were poorly organized through inept training and lack-luster lifeboat drills. The large immediate list following the single torpedo hit caused the remaining starboard side efforts to save women and children first, ended up killing them instead. The frigid 52 degree water did the damage, only 10 miles from the Irish coast which was in full afternoon view. Boats couldn't be lowered because the tackle fouled as well as the complicating factor that the forward motion of the ship caused the boats to land on one another, crushing those in them.

The storied naval architects of Great Britain never envisioned a scenario in which such a fine ship would sink so rapidly nor did they conceive that life boats would need to be lowered in conditions of 15 degree list and considerable forward motion. They had assumed, by their planning, that all ships sunk vertically and with no motion.

The ultimate blame, of course, is placed on the German high command for targeting civilian passengers (despite their warnings to Cunard) but the disaster could have been mediated by proper design and reasonable thinking.

The Federal Reserve has constructed a towering edifice of market manipulations designed, they think, to withstand everything. As so many before them, they can't know, let alone plan for the un-intended consequences of their interventions. They can't know about all the hidden dangers. They are working against the powers of price discovery and the powers of many individuals seeking protection in the aftermath of the Fed's looming man-made disaster.

The Federal Reserve is committing slow-motion suicide.

Mike

Something to keep in mind and probably a reason The Gold Cartel and Working Group on Financial Markets has savaged gold. This is one of the derivatives neutron bombs they don’t want to go off:

Fed Official Warns That Housing Finance Giants Pose Systemic Risk
Fed's Poole urges end GSE Treasury credit lines

Thu May 6, 2004 (Reuters)

St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole on Thursday called for the elimination of government lines of credit to mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to reduce risks to the U.S. financial system in the event of a crisis at either company. "There is no question but that a crisis affecting either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac would have widespread effects because these firms are so large," Poole said in remarks prepared for delivery to a banking conference organized by the Chicago Federal Reserve. Poole said elimination of the ability of both companies to tap the U.S. Treasury Department for emergency loans of $2.25 billion each would make clear to markets that the government does not stand behind the companies' debt.

"Investors have priced these obligations under the assumption there are no possible risks that might strain (government sponsored enterprise) capital positions," he said. Poole said that while there is no crisis evident for the obligations of the housing government sponsored enterprises, their capital positions were "undesirably thin" and leave the firms "unnecessarily vulnerable to surprise shocks."
Poole's comments come amid an ongoing debate about toughening supervision of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after an accounting scandal at Freddie Mac last year rattled investors. He said an assumption that the government stands behind the GSEs was typical of the type of behavior that has preceded past financial crises.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose risks because they pursue a strategy of borrowing for the short term while lending for the long term and maintain a thin capital margin, Poole suggested. He said clear procedures for closing either company in a crisis should be established. "Should a crisis occur, it will take hold so quickly that GSE obligations will in a matter of hours, or days, become illiquid. While any one holder of GSE debt can exit, not all holders can exit at once," Poole said.

-END-

One more country has no gold left:

Armenia raises $5.6 mln from gold reserves sale

Yerevan. (Interfax) - Armenia raised 3 billion dram (about $5.6 million) in net profit for the country's budget from the sale of gold reserves, Central Bank of Armenia Chairman Tigran Sarkisyan told the press.

Armenia sold its entire gold reserve of 1,396.5 kilograms, estimated at $17.1 million on October 1 2003 and forming part of the country's international reserves, at the end of 2003.

The sale was made in accordance with the international reserve management strategy and had the approval of the Central Bank of Armenia board, Sarkisyan said. The Armenian government made transaction through international dealers when the price of gold topped $400 per troy ounce.

When foreign debt is double the volume of international reserves, there is no need for a gold reserve because debt payments are made in dollars, euros or SDR, Sarkisyan said.

-END-

The perennial Barclay’s bear growls as usual:

LONDON, May 7 (Reuters) - Gold's 4-1/2-year bull trend may be over as investors begin to turn their back on commodities, leaving the precious metal vulnerable to otherwise weak fundamentals, analysts at Barclays Capital said on Friday

In a special report, precious metals analyst Kamal Naqvi said the end of the "reflation trade", where investors put cash into commodities as they believed these markets would benefit from low interest rates, money supply growth and a weak U.S. dollar, was over. –END-

The gold shares were slaughtered again as the XAU dropped 4.30 to 78.03 and the HUI sank 9.60 to 168.80. Its Fibonacci 62% retracement number is 168.38. The HUI low today was 168.37.

This is painful for all of us. However, knowing why this has occurred has me saying, "This too shall pass." You could not ask for a more bullish gold scenario. I’m hanging on and letting this play out. The Big Picture gold/silver play has not diminished one bit.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

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Greenspan to Raise Interest Rates by 25%

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Written by dalepetrie

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board Alan Greenspan today announced that the Fed is raising the prime lending rate (the rate charged by the Federal government to financial institutions) from 1% to a whopping 26%, bringing the interest rate from a 46 year low to an all time high. The move was reportedly prompted by Greenspan’s desire to “make all you whining bastards see what a really bad economy is like so you’ll quit yer bitching.”

The announcement prompted investors to pull every penny out of the stock market in favor of moving it to interest bearing savings and checking accounts, causing the Dow to close at 0.00, down 10,241.86 points from this morning’s opening of 10,241.86. The Nasdaq was also off 100%, down 1,947.24 to 0.00 from this morning’s opening of 1,947.24. Only the S&P 500 retained any of its value, closing at .02, down 1,104.28 from this morning’s opening of 1,104.30, prompted by the inaction of one guy named Earl who forgot he owned any stock.

The business world was thrown into chaos when all the officers and directors of every one of the Fortune 1000 corporations simultaneously hurled themselves out of tall buildings, however only a small handful were killed as the pile of bodies of the first victims broke the fall of the rest. The massive influx of cash into the economy weakened the dollar in the global economy to 1 ten thousandth of what its value was this morning and that number is dropping by the second, sparking hyperinflation the likes of which have not been seen outside of Argentina. Almost all personal property in the United States has now been destroyed by the ensuing riots, and when asked why police were not doing more to stem the tide of violence, a high-ranking police official commented under the condition of anonymity, “what are you, fucking nuts?” All existing personal fortunes were wiped out, and as of this writing, the wealthiest man in America is John Simmons, of Des Moines, Iowa, an avid coin collector who spent all of his disposable income on gold coins, and managed to save most of them from the looting and rioting by having the foresight on hearing Greenspan’s speech to shove three giant tubes of gold coins up his ass. Fortunately Simmons was a smooth gay bottom boy and had no problem inserting the disproportionately large tubes.

President George W. Bush could not be reached for comment as he was reportedly crying like a little bitch over the news which surely spelled his defeat in November, given that no one other than Simmons has any money to give to a political campaign, and Simmons is a Kerry supporter because of Bush’s stand on the gay marriage issue. Presumed Democratic Presidential Nominee Kerry immediately offered the Vice President spot on the ticket to Simmons, who gratefully accepted, given that he is now unemployed as his boss is financially ruined.

When reached for a comment later in the day, Greenspan commented, “Jesus Christ people I was just kidding!”

The story as represented above is written as a satire or parody. It is fictitious.

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Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld "miffed" at omission from bin Laden's hit list

Written by Robert Carey

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Joe's bar and grill

Washington 7th May 2004

Osama bin Laden's offer of a bounty to whomever takes the lives of Paul Bremer or Kofi Annan has George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld a bit miffed at being left off his hit list.

Bush said, "I think I've done enough to be up there with the best of them. I mean, it was me who put that jumped up desk jockey Bremer in charge of Iraq in the first place and after all, who invaded Afghanistan? and who licks Ariel Sharon's boots every time he wants something? and don't forget, I shouldn't be president of the USA at all".

Dick Cheney was also flummoxed at not being included, he said, "What have you got to do these days, aren't my shady deals with Halliburton enough to qualify me? and wasn't I the one who wanted to go all the way to Baghdad in the first Gulf war? and let it be said, I'm the real brains behind this outfit?

Donald Rumsfeld was similarly shocked. He believes that he should be on top of the list as he asked, "Who gives the go-ahead to drop bunker busters all over the place?, haven't I contributed to the greatest chaos in the middle east since Alexander the Great? and don't forget my cover-up in the prisoner abuse scandal".

They all agreed to try harder in future.

The story as represented above is written as a satire or parody. It is fictitious.

silvo

Schön von Dir zu lesen Silvo. Von Optimismus ist momentan wirklich nicht viel zu spüren bei den Gold, und Silber Bugs. Ist eigentlich auch nicht verwunderlich, nach den Aktionen der letzten Wochen am Gold, und Silber Markt, und wenn man zusehends mitansehen konnte, wie die Anleger ihre Gold, und Silber Aktien rausschmissen, wie wenn ab morgen Gold, oder Silber wertlos würden. Die Leute suchen nach Erklärungen für das Vorgefallene.

Viele können es sich (noch) nicht erklären, warum Gold und Silber, alle extrem positiven fundamentaldaten ignorierend, so stark preislich nachgegeben haben. Vor allem aber werden sich momentan nicht wenige Investoren fragen, ob sie sich so stark geirrt haben könnten, mit ihrer Entscheidung pro Gold, oder Silber.

Ich sehe wie Du Tatsachen rund um mich herum, die ein solches "Preisgehabe" nicht erklären können. Meiner Ansicht nach wird jetzt auch in Thailand langsam, aber sicher eine negativere Zeit anbrechen. Gestern Nacht hat es einen Grossbrand in einer der top Diskotheken Pattayas, einem bekannten Bade-, und Vergrügungsort gegeben. Die Ursachen sind noch nicht ganz geklärt, doch wenn es sich herrausstellen würde, dass es sich um einen Brandanschlag der muslemischen Separatisten aus dem Süden Thailands gehandelt hat, wäre das für die Wirtschaft Thailands mehr als nur schädlich. Die Diskothek heisst übrigens "Hollywood".

Die Subventionierung der Benzinpreise wurde bereits etwas gelockert hier, und weitere Benzinpreiserhöhungen werden wohl bald schon folgen. Reines Gift übrigens für die thailändische Agrarwirtschaft.

Im Süden Thailands brodelt es immer mehr, und die Anschläge auf Armee, und Polizei, und andere Einrichtungen werden immer häufiger, ja sie finden jetzt mehr oder weniger bereits täglich statt.

Es sieht zur Zeit auch nicht danach aus, dass sich die Lage bald entspannen könnte. Die Börse Thailands korrigiert weiter nach unten.
Werde wohl etwas gezwungenermasen mein Engagement weiter reduzieren, und hauptsächlich in physisches Gold, und Silber umschichten, weil ich nach wie vor, von Gold, und Silber als eine der besten, und gewinnverspechensten Anlageformen der Zukunft überzeugt bin. Zudem gewisse Gold, und Silber Minen Aktien wie z. Bsp. SAMEX MINING, KINGSGATE, BEMA Gold, Newmont, etc., schreien geradezu danach ge-, oder zugekauft zu werden, nach den kopflosen Verkäufen der letzten Tage.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

COT Gold Report - May 7, 2004

Gold Cot Report - Futures

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COT Gold Report - May 7, 2004

Gold Cot Report - Futures & Options Combined

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COT Silver Report - May 7, 2004

Silver Cot Report - Futures

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COT Silver Report - May 7, 2004

Silver Cot Report - Futures & Options Combined

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Aids will cost $5/oz in 2009: Gold Fields

http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/z…ss/business1084026482.asp

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Silver Stocks -- Comparative Valuations, Weekly Report # 33

By: Jason Hommel, GoldIsMoney.com

http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1084036471.php