Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

The Daily Reckoning

St. Michael's, Maryland

Friday, May 19, 2006

---------------------

*** Nothing is born under the sun that doesn't die in the shade...the
wildest profits are made from the weirdest investments during a bubble...

*** In gold we trust...continue executing the Trade of the Decade as we've instructed since 2001...

*** The three stages of a bull market...the poor Brits flounder in
absurdity along with their American cousins...and more!

"High prices beget low prices," said our old friend Rick Rule, speaking in
St. Michaels earlier this week. "High risk begets low risk. High
confidence begets low confidence. High stability begets low stability."

Nothing is born under the sun that doesn't die in the shade - including
bubbles, booms and bull markets. We read in today's news that the "Housing Boom has Gone Bust."

What begat this particular bust was, of course, the boom that preceded it.
Boom begets demand, which begets supply, which begets glut, which begets bust. Before you know it, the whole misbegotten property market is falling apart.

That seems to be what is happening in some parts of America now, according to Canada's National Post.

A few months ago, "pre-construction" was a powerful compound word. The prefix was pure magic - at least in South Florida. It tipped you off that
buyers didn't really want to own another condominium apartment. They
didn't even want to see it under construction, and they certainly didn't
want to pay for it. What they wanted was something without a roof or a
mortgage that they could unload to someone without a dollar or a clue.

That is what you get at bubble peaks. During the great tech stock bubble,
too, the wildest profits were made in the weirdest investments - the
dot.com equivalents of un-built condos - Internet companies with no
revenues, no business plans and not a prayer of success.

But that is just the great glory of our free-market system; it allows
people to make fools of themselves and lose their money on their very own with a flourish. (See the essay below for a current example.)

Thus, it is that in the south of the balmy state of Florida, the party is
coming to an end. Gone is the razzle when a new development is launched.

Gone are the acrobats, the clowns, and the bubbly. Gone are the lines of
people waiting to buy pre-construction or post-construction. Gone, too,
are the sales. According to the National Post, buyers are walking away
from $80,000 deposits rather than close on new apartments.

As many as 29% of the people who took out a mortgage last year have zero
equity in their houses, reports the Wall Street Journal. And there are 3.5
million units waiting to be sold - 30% more than a year ago. Delinquency
rates are "soaring," says the Journal.

Sic transit gloria bubbli.

Zitat

Posted On: Friday, May 19, 2006, 8:06:00 PM EST

Gold and Dollar Market Summary

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGAs

It is time for a review. For a generational bull market in gold to exist the following is required. What has amazed me is how well gold has acted with major pillars still not fully in place. The price of gold has hit the recovery high of 1980 at the $720 area. That is outstanding when you consider the axiom below.

I told you as gold is roaring up to:

1. Fasten your seat belts.
2. Gold may range $100 in short bursts.
3. Remove your entire margin on anything gold and silver.
4. This was the Big Kahuna.
5. Gold is heading for $1650 and I might well be conservative in my expectation.

There are five elements that must be in place in order to have a generational bull market in gold.

1. We certainly have a recognized top in the US dollar but gold had rallied into a contra-trend dollar move.
2. We have not had a recognized top in US Treasury instruments yet the rise in the gold price has been spectacular. A recognized top in long term treasuries means a break down in the very long term up trend line which has not yet occurred, but is threatening now to occur. Even without this pillar in place gold has been spectacular in its ability to reach the 1980 recovery high.
3. There is no question we had and will continue to have a bull market in general commodities. That alone cannot be given credit for the ability of gold to rise so far to the 1980 recovery high.
4. The Triple Deficits are firmly in place.
5. Distrust in US paper Assets has not been reflected in US equities, yet gold rallied from the $248 into the high of the 1980 gold recovery at the $720 level.

It is spectacular that gold has been so strong with only Pillars #3 and #4 firmly in place.

Can you imagine what level the gold price will accomplish when all of “The Five Golden Pillars” are in place simultaneously? Consider what the price of gold will be when the long term trend line on the 30 Year US Treasury bond breaks down, when US equities are not so popular and the US dollar is below USDX .8050. My answer is a gold price of at least $887.50.

Please do not let the nature of the gold price changes get you emotionally distraught. They are ferocious and will get even more manic. It is going to range $100 a day soon. You will be slaughtered if you panic on the down and turn into a true believer on the up. You will be slaughtered if you use ANY margin at all. That is only for the pros. Many of them will be ground beef before 2006 is over.

You will prosper if you get a grip and hold it tight. My grip is that we are in a generational bull market that has outperformed even until today. It has done what no one would believe even three months ago. It is acting like a major bull market now in its volatility and volume. The gold price which I expect is now looking too low for the reasons stated above.

I am more bullish on gold today than I have ever been in my 46 years of experience. The following was presented to you in 2003 when the goal of $480 then presented as a market target was consider totally LOCO.

“The Five Golden Pillars”

1. A recognized top in the U. S. Dollar.
2. A recognized top in the U. S. Treasury Long Bond.
3. A bullish phase within general commodity markets:
4. Triple Deficits of U. S. Budget, Current Account and Trade firmly in place.
5. Trust in Paper Assets must be declining.

Alles anzeigen

Mal sehen, ob es wirklich die "big Kahuna" war. Auf jeden Fall müssen noch viele, die von den Top-Callers aus dem Markt "beraten" wurden, wieder einsteigen. Von allen anderen ganz zu schweigen...

Grüsse vom Simpel

Edit: RS

http://news.goldseek.com/Grandich/1148071696.php

Metals and Mining Shares – What A Difference A Week Makes!

The Grandich Letter, Grandich Publications, LLC

4 P.M. EDT FRIDAY SPECIAL ALERT:

By Peter Grandich

On Thursday May 11, 2006, at 1:00 p.m., I issued a special Alert that said, “An overbought/oversold indicator of mine that I’ve used since before the 1987 stock market crash, has given the most overbought reading ever for both copper and gold… I’m going to suggest that risk in gold, silver and copper is now equal to, or much higher, than reward in these markets for the near term. The long awaited sharp correction is within hours or days away at the most.”

I appeared on Canada’s “Report on Business Television” (by far, North America’s best financial network) on Friday, May 12th http://www.grandich.com/robtv.05.12.06a.htm and stated that I believed the day before began a correction that could see us drop 10% to 15% in just days or weeks (go to about the 56 minute mark in the interview).

I gave my thoughts to several media outlets, but my comments to the Daily Telegraph –U.K.,

http://www.grandich.com/docs/telegraph_05-15-06.pdf created the most “fan” reaction. I guess that was due in part that the reporter used this headline “Unsustainable gold on the brink of crash, says US metals guru.” Never do I recall using the word crash to describe my outlook, but I assume he took it upon himself to assume that was my theme after I told him. He quotes me in the article:

“I think there will be a very short, sharp correction of 10 to 15pc, in the worst case reaching a floor of around $575 an ounce.” I hardly think that’s a crash.

It’s been an interesting week or so, to say the least!

Good News – Bad News

Lets get the bad news out of the way first. Many of the “Johnny-come-latelys” to the metals and mining share markets have been beaten up pretty badly. While we’re all accountable only to ourselves and have no one else to blame for our investments (unless we have given someone complete discretion over our portfolio), I do have some sympathy for these folks because they were led to the slaughter in part thanks to some “big name” so-called experts. These “experts” had missed most of the run but scrambled to get themselves in front of the pack by issuing big new upgraded bullish opinions at or near the top. What bothers me about many of these folks was the belief they “changed” their opinion not because they wanted to, but because they had to in fear of looking like complete fools. This is harsh of me and may come across as arrogance but I’m disgusted to see some in the media beat a path to the door of someone who was basically on the wrong side for years, but almost ignore someone who hit a near bulls-eye for 5+ years. I’m not referring to myself but to Bill Murphy of http://www.gata.org.

I won’t name them, but there are several folks who were basically bearish or indifferent to the metals for many years, then “suddenly” began to urge folks to jump in with both feet. The media would issue a headline that such and such raised their outlook for gold to now average around the current price or even higher for next 12 months. What you don’t know is this group’s last call was so far surpassed they had no choice but to raise their forecast (kind of hard to have a $450, 2006 forecast when gold is $650). Yet, a man like Bill Murphy, even if you don’t believe any of his reasons for believing gold would do what it did, who nevertheless had the correct forecast versus these others that didn’t, was basically ignored by most media outlets. I found it ironic and a little sad that the Wall Street Journal would finally give him some print, albeit not in the most favorable light, at the exact top for gold as of now. I’ve heard many within my own industry knock Bill and GATA and tell me how all their claims are hogwash. Here’s what I have to say to them – I would rather end up on the right side of a market for all the wrong reasons then on the wrong side of a market for all the right reasons.

Forgive me for my little tirade but it has bugged me. I may lose some media exposure for this but I needed to say it.

The good news is: there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. While we can still see another 10% or so down from here (especially in copper- if not more), I do think by stepping aside last Thursday, the majority of the correction I foresaw is now behind us – especially in the mining and exploration shares. We can still move sideways to down through June, but I now think real further weakness is strictly a buying opportunity (except in copper- where I see another 20% down).

Gold –

I believe it’s wise for you to separate gold from other commodities going forward because while supply versus demand factors remain bullish, geopolitical and economic events evolving and surrounding the United States should have the biggest positive impact on gold’s direction.

In case you didn’t read this alert, http://www.grandich.com/docs/alertGL_04-04-06.pdf , let me just say:

The only party that doesn’t know the U.S. Dollar is dead, is the U.S. Dollar!!!!!!!!!!!!!

In case you ever wondered what it must have been like when the Roman Empire fell apart, let it be known you’re at the beginning of the end for the United States as the world’s biggest economic power. America is on the cusp of economic and political upheaval, unlike anything it has experience in its entire history!!! The days of robbing Peter to pay Paul are coming home to roost. The Hatfield’s and McCoy’s will have nothing over the Democrats versus Republicans going forward. The aging crisis in America is going to make the energy and terrorism crisis “second-fiddle.” Most Americans still have no idea how many parts of the world no longer welcome their “Uncle Sam” with open arms. This is going to be a critical blunder of theirs as they continue to live way beyond their means. The ramifications of becoming debt junkies hasn’t even crossed their minds yet, but when they realize their “pushers” (foreigners who fund our deficits) will demand much higher interest rates and political clout in exchange for their capital, America will have a wake up call like nothing they’ve ever experienced- including the Great Depression.

Gold is the best alternative currency and the ultimate safe-haven investment. It’s going to take a major breakdown below 80 basis the U.S. Dollar Index to cause gold to hit four digits, but in my heart of hearts, that’s only a question of when, not if. I hope my friends in Vancouver won’t hold my bad Canucks joke against me when America falls and I need a place to stay.

Silver –

The “kissing cousin” of gold is likely to ride the coattail of gold but I do think gold must be the bigger of the two in most holdings.

Platinum and Palladium –

I’ve stated that they should hold up better due to the best supply versus demand scenario besides Uranium and they have for the most part. If there’s such a thing as blue-chip metal, Platinum is it.

Copper –

I believe it has been ignoring real fundamentals since above $2.50. I think it ends up there, if not lower, before too long. I was far too early in my bearish sentiment but I do believe it’s better to be a year too early than a day too late. We will learn to live and prosper in mining shares with a $2-$2.50 copper price.

Uranium –

Same old story – the no-brainer metal on its way to $75.

U.S. Dollar –

D.E.A.D. – R.I.P.

Oil –

This oil bear is once again popping up his head in believing $75 is the top for the cycle. But knowing hurricane season is around the corner and Iraq was just the opening act for Iran, I’ll just return to my hole and await further development. I do believe Natural Gas could be very interesting in the next month or two.

Mining and Exploration Shares –

I said in my May 11th issue, “…the second half of 2006, and especially 2007, is setting up to be the speculative frenzy most have been patiently waiting for.”

While shares in general can decline another 10%-15%, the bulk of the froth has been removed, especially in the junior resource market. In fact, I do believe the next 60-90 days could offer one of the best entry points into the junior market since the bottom in 2001-2002. I’m highly prejudiced since part of my livelihood is made within that industry, but it’s my most humble opinion.

Many got washed out......

http://perfectstorm.warnerbros.com/

Gmorning Edel Man

""Right now though we are extremely oversold and a rebound could occur at any moment. ""

....das sagen viele, trotzdem geht es erstmal weiter runter,es trifft alle Maerkte, besonders heute morgen.

Ist das der Anfang vom Ende oder das Ende vom Anfang ?

Das ist hier die Frage die sich jeder selber beantworten muss.

Good luck to you all

Gruss

Eldo

Edel, selbst wenn viele lachen ueber ihn, Mahendra sagte am 13. Mai den Crash bei commodities vorraus und redete vo 10 Tagen negativen Planetenstellung die am 23.Mai dann ""theoretisch"" beendet sein sollte.

A new planetary combination will occur in the next ten days, and that is not a good sign, as it could affect each and every area of the financial market.

There will be negative news for some financial firms and it looks like a few financial scandals will break out

Gold should trade twenty percent down from $710 and thirty percent down for platinum, palladium and silver. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY FROM SEP 2006 IF THEY FALL AS IN THE LONG TERM, GOLD IS GOING TO HIT $1600 AND SILVER $50.

http://mahendraprophecy.com/LatestFlash.asp?Id=237&Page=1

Somit nehme ich an, bzw. vermute/hoffe das am 24 Mai es wieder aufwaerts gehen wird.

Ob es nun Planeten sind die nicht untereinander harmonieren oder die Cabale die dahinter stecken ist eine andere Frage.

Mal schaun, ich halte meine Aktien und verkaufe nichts freiwillig.

Ich bin gespannt was heute Abend in New York passiert.

Es bleibt spannend wie ein ""Cliffhanger""... bei fast allen Aktien.

Gruss

Eldo

Edel Man, ich glaube auch nicht das Gold unter 600 faellt .
Moeglich ist jedoch kurzfristig alles im Moment......

The Inflation Boogey Monster

The Daily Reckoning - Weekend Edition
May 20-21, 2006
Baltimore, Maryland
by Dan Denning

MARKET REVIEW: THE INFLATION BOOGEY MONSTER

Stocks and bonds all over the world fell last week on the grim inflation
news coming out of the American economy. Let us cut to the proverbial
chase: Will inflation fears snuff out the rally in resource and energy
stocks even as underlying resource and energy prices soar? Let's pile this
question on, to Will commodity inflation smother returns in emerging
markets and again favor U.S. assets?

No stock - even a commodity stock - is immune from the inflation boogey
monster. But it's not time to sell everything. The Dow and the S&P have
been on a nice run. For its part, the Dow wasn't able to make a new high,
and its failure to do so, coupled with the fear that the Federal Reserve
will continue raising rates to fight inflation, put investors in selling
mood. Yet none of the underlying bullish conditions in the energy and
resource sector have suddenly evaporated.

What Wall Street is now wondering is if persistently (and record) high
resource prices will begin to slow down production and overall economic
growth. Are things heating up so fast that both producers and consumers
will have to cut back and retract? That's what the market is trying to
figure out and discount at the moment.

My biggest concern is that resource stocks are getting overheated,
especially precious metals and energy stocks. Sure, political risk has not
diminished, and may actually take energy prices higher. And yes, the
managed fall of the dollar could quickly turn into a debacle. But it's
also possible we're seeing a short-term blowoff in this commodity rally
that will take gold near $1,000 and oil near $100 before losing momentum.

What do I mean?

A lot of money is chasing after commodities and commodity stocks right
now. I wouldn't call it a bubble. But the constant mention of price
targets for gold and oil is starting to become a self-fulfilling
phenomenon. It might not seem like it, because the fundamental drivers of
the precious metals and energy bull markets are still there. The dollar is
backed by mountains of debt and oil demand is growing faster than oil
supply. Those trends haven't changed.

But when everyone is on the bullish side of the oil and gold trade, the
trade has run its course. Notice I said "the trade." The trend is still on
the side of oil and gold. But the smart speculative money right now is
looking at out-of-the-money put options on gold stocks.

Once gold busted out over $500, it's been nothing but new multidecade
highs. I know gold is making up for lost time with its latest run. But
even gold bulls shouldn't expect more of the same without correction or
interruption.

It wouldn't surprise me to see gold correct back down to around $550 by
the end of the summer. This would come in the context of a deep sell-off
in bonds and stocks as well. How could that be, you may be wondering?
Wouldn't gold go up on inflation fears? Wouldn't gold go up on DE-flation
fears?

If and when global liquidity begins to tighten in earnest, it will be bad
for all asset classes. Gold will do relatively better. But from its
current perch, it is not, relatively speaking, a screaming buy. Be
prepared for a dip. And if you haven't bought yet, that will be your
chance to make amends.

Regards,

Dan Denning
for The Daily Reckoning

Posted On: Sunday, May 21, 2006, 9:04:00 PM EST

In the News: Sunday, May 21st

Author: Jim Sinclair

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Do you get the feeling that the US is losing its grip on the other Americas?

Venezuela Says It Will Pull Out of G-3

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - President Hugo Chavez said Sunday Venezuela will pull out of a trade bloc with Colombia and Mexico, its latest move to abandon trade deals with countries that have free-trade pacts with the United States.

Chavez said he was withdrawing from the so-called G-3 bloc to "safeguard the national interest" as Venezuela joins another trade group, Mercosur, with other left-leaning governments including Argentina and Uruguay.

"We have already decided to leave the so-called G-3," Chavez said in his weekly TV and radio program, broadcast from the eastern state of Bolivar.

Chavez, along with his close friend Cuban President Fidel Castro, has proposed a decidedly anti-capitalist trade bloc for the region, which Bolivia also has joined under newly elected President Evo Morales

...more
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/12904752/

Saturday, May 20th

Show Highlights:

Congressman Tom Udall discusses the energy dilemma and outlines where domestic gas prices are headed.

Gary Stroik, the author of All About Dividend Investing, shares his market experiences and why he is so bullish on gold and silver.

Trading Wizards: Bob Chapman, Gary Kaltbaum and Jack Chan return to explain the current weakness in precious metals and the stock market as well as their market forecasts

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1148328911.php

Zitat

Original von Eldorado
Edel Man, ich glaube auch nicht das Gold unter 600 faellt .
Moeglich ist jedoch kurzfristig alles im Moment......
...

Ich glaube es auch nicht und bleibe Guten Mutes...

Bill Cara schreibt heute:

Overnight trading in the precious metals has resulted in a continuation of the sell-off.

Experienced traders will be looking to move back into this market after the selling has been exhausted.

Nur wann das ist, weiss er natürlich auch nicht

Gruss

@Edel

Bezueglich Mahendra nochmal, der sieht das in seinen Fernrohr oder mit super Intuition.

Oder er weiss es von den Cabals wie lange der Druck gemacht wird auf den Markt.

Da bin ich mir nicht so sicher bei ihm.

Mir kommts immer noch so vor so vor er hat zwei Damen im Arm.

Prognosen mache ich ab jetzt auch keine mehr ausser das diese Attacke bald aufhoert und die Investoren realistischer denken werden was sie gekauft oder verkauft haben.

;)Vanescent so ist es.....ich vermute jedoch es spielt sich in diese Woche ab.. oder es kommt wirklich zum grossen Crash X(, .. aber ueberall !

Experienced traders will be looking to move back into this market after the selling has been exhausted.

Ich glaube es kommt zum großen Crash. Schon wieder ALLES im Minus. Meine Anleihen steigen, Rendite bald unter 5%. Nur der Euro hält sich?? Seltsam. Entweder da kriegen die Devisenheinis mal so richtig ein auf die Mütze, oder ???

Überlegt mal wie schnell die Minen gefallen sind. Das geht nicht einfach so ohne Folgen am Markt vorbei.

Was für Auswirkungen hätte ein Börsencrash in Indien auf den Goldmarkt?

Gruß
S.

OH, Edel das hat mich auch in den Fingern gejuckt mit den Calls fuer Silber und Gold...... aber..

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
@Eldo/Vanescent

Habe heute Vormittag je einen hochhebeligen,langlaufenden Gold-und Silbercall um jeweils 1/3 aufgestockt.

Da ich mehr konservativer Anleger bin,verrät dies etwas über meine "Visionen"

Selbst wenn noch Unruhe da ist,auch das sitze ich glatt aus!!

=)Grüsse
Edel Man

Alles anzeigen

Edel Man

Danke für die Aufmunterung
Habe ich heute auch gemacht, sogar um 50%, auch hochhebelig..
Können bald einen Zockerverein gründen....

Gruss