Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Wie Rick Ackerman schon sagt, das trifft vielleicht auf Saccard zu, IMO:

“But as I have mentioned, gold-share corrections might have different personalities, but they all share some things in common. To wit, they are scary, and they will tend to cause irrational decisions. They plant fear and doubt in the heretofore unshakeable bulls who now must reconsider: ‘Is it all over? Should I pull out and look elsewhere, or perhaps, just go into cash?’ It is a sad fact that many who had bravado and firm convictions about a historic bull market are now out of the precious-metals move due to one or the other of the corrections. Some are out for good; others are waiting to get up the courage to put their toes back in. That is why I hear the word ‘perspective’ so loudly at this time.

Ich erinnere mich an den Spruch sei mutig und kaufe wenn andere rennen/verkaufen und renne wenn andere wie verrueckt kaufen.

Haver a nice day

XEX

Edel, Jeff Kern sagt das die naechsten zwei Wochen kritisch bleiben.
Ich denke mal nach dieser Zeit sollte die Ungewissheit wo es nun hingeht vorbei sein.
Momentan ist alles eine reine Spekulation.
Ich erwarte den grossen Aktien Crash nicht vor der Wahl in den USA.
Vorher waere das Ende von Bush und seinen PPT Team im Hintergrund.
Jeden Tag 5 B USD fuer den Krieg im nahen Osten, wie soll das noch weitergehen frage ich mich ?

So eine Gelegenheit kommt nur einmal im Jahr, Edel.

To buy or to sell !

Herzlichen Glückwunsch zum Geburtstag nachträglich, Eldorado!

"Die Börsenlogik ist nicht mit der Alltagslogik identisch."
Weshalb Frauen auch die besseren Anleger sind..

Nichts genaues weiß man nicht, keine Ahnung wie's weitergeht.

Ich halte es da eher mit Richard Russell:
"I take the gold move from 250 to 735 as the first major phase of the gold bull market. This is the phase where gold once again enters the thinking and early buying of informed investors. The second phase will be the one in which the public enters wholesale into the gold market.

In a major bull market in stocks there will usually be a major correction which separates the first phase from the second phase. It's that correction that I believe we're now experiencing in gold."

So eine Korrektur würde mit Sicherheit Monate dauern (nach 5 Jahren Bullenmarkt!!). Deswegen bin ich so vorsichtig.

Langfristig ist alles klar, auf 1 Jahres Sicht noch nicht ganz so, auf 2 Jahressicht aber deutlich höher.

Kurzfristig ebenfalls, die meisten Minen haben so korrigiert, daß nun alles sehr überverkauft ist.

Andere wiederum sind auch schon wieder so stark gestiegen, daß die technischen Indikatoren gerade mal neutral sind. Auch teile ich das Argument nicht, daß angeblich soviele abgesprungen wären. Ich bin mit Sicherheit eher die Ausnahme, die meisten dürften kräftig nachgekauft haben. Aber auch in Punkto Sentiment muß man vorsichtig sein, an den Wendepunkten liegt die Masse falsch. Sonst nicht. Siehe z.B. die Hausse im Dax seit 2003. Jeff Kern hat ja auch nicht verkauft.

Was bleibt? Entweder man riskiert etwas und geht erstmal ganz aus dem Markt raus oder man investiert nur in die gesunden Werte.

Sowas wie Avocet gefällt mir inzwischen gar nicht mehr. Fundamentale Probleme mit der Produktion (200000 ozs annualisiert und davon 120000 gehegt), wenig Aufwärtspotential, die Absicherung bei fallenden Goldpreisen erst bei 450. Warum soll man da investieren? Bei scheinbarem Schwindelmanagement (trotz "26x Überzeichnung" kein Halten des Ausgabekurses von 200p möglich??).

Ich denke sowas wie Minefinders hat viel bessere Aussichten (Silberpreis und niedriger Gammon Kurs sind da negativ). Dafür Übernahmephantasie.

Noch besser vielleicht eine Konzentration auf Exploration, wenn was gefunden wird steigen die Minen immer, egal wo der Goldpreis ist. Sowas wie Atna (30% Pinson in Nevada) schwebt mir vor.

Jedenfalls sind die Minen verglichen mit Gold sehr billig und wenn es zu einer Rezession kommt sollte der Ölpreis fallen, so daß dann auch die Produktionskosten fallen werden.

Gruß
S.

http://www.sharelynx.net/chart…SKI-Global-Sentiment1.php

2002 ist USERX bis auf die blaue Linie gefallen, das hieße für uns heute, daß je nach Timing auch ein USERX low von 13 bis 12 möglich wäre. Also noch weitere 20% bis Mitte Juni.
http://www.sharelynx.net/chartstemp/SKI-Global-Sentiment.php

Das heißt aber auch bis Mitte August wieder auf jetzigem Stand und bis Ende September auf neuen Hochs.

Auch unter diesen Gesichtspunkten: Steuerfreie Positionen gar nicht, andere Positionen nicht kurzfristig verkaufen sondern noch etwas warten.

Gruß
S.

Die ETFs in meinem Depot haben den Crash verhindert. Es ist schon wieder im Plus. Und Gold ist ja nur was für den long run. Da kann es doch nur steigen. Beim Ausstiegszeitpunkt wird entscheidend sein, was dann besser als die EMs läuft. Dahin sollte man dann umschichten.

Gold und Silber habe jedenfalls, was die vergangene Inflation angeht noch VIEL nachzuholen. Und wenn man dann noch die kommende Inflation hinzunimmt ...

ganz vergessen, heute ist feiertag in den usa...memorial day

Zitat

Original von Eldorado
ganz vergessen, heute ist feiertag in den usa...memorial day

Auch England hat urlaub heute
Spring Bank Holiday

What would the gold price be if we could replace all the existing notes and coins in the world with gold?

Not such a long time ago paper receipts for gold in storage were used as currency, and people would trade these receipts because it was more convenient than carrying around a lot of gold. Over time, those who held the gold and issued the receipts noticed that physical gold was seldom claimed even thought the receipts changed hands several times. The temptation to issue more receipts than the gold in storage became too large to resist, and fractional banking was invented. This allowed the issuers to charge interest and increase the amount of currency in circulation.

The scheme would work as long as everyone did not claim his or her gold at the same time. Those issuers (or later, banks) who egregiously abused the system suffered from bank-runs, in which receipt holders claimed their gold. Since there was not enough gold to cover all the outstanding receipts, only the first folks through the door would get any gold.

The system was based on the faith the public had in the gold receipts, with all issuers not being equal. The Federal Reserve Bank was therefore created to regulate the system and stand ready to bail out any bank that could not meet its obligations. Fractional banking was allowed to continue subject to additional regulation and scrutiny, but the system is still based purely on the faith and confidence that people have in pieces of paper.

Many hardcore believers in the gold standard feel that fractional banking has to be demolished. I personally never liked the idea of fractional banking, but I also don't think the population at large is ready to do without it. And, even if fractional banking were eliminated and a pure gold standard recreated, the temptation to issue receipts in excess of gold on deposit would just exert itself again.

So instead of the most conservative extreme of a gold standard without the ability of debt creation, let's consider what would happen if we accepted fractional banking, but just took away governments' right to seigniorage.

If we add together all the currency in circulation (notes and coins) in the US, Japan, China, Britain, Canada, Russia, Australia and the European Union, converted to US dollars for simplicity, we arrive at $2.6 trillion. These countries represent roughly 80% of the world's GDP so by extrapolation we can estimate that all the currency in circulation in the world today is approximately $3.25 trillion.

Total historical gold production is about 5 billion ounces and most of it is still around. If all the gold in the world were converted to money to replace existing notes and coins, it would imply a gold price of $650 an ounce.

Back in the 1940s the United States alone held about one third of all the gold in the world and two thirds of the official reserves (gold held by governments). At the time, governments held approximately 50% of all the gold. If we assume that only half the gold in the world could be converted into money then it would imply a gold price of $1,300 an ounce.

Another model I have used to estimate the fair value of gold is based on relative inflation rates. According to that model (see http://www.paulvaneeden.com/Library/200304%20Gold.php), the gold price should be around $900 an ounce. I found it interesting that both these calculations came up with gold price values in the range of $1,000 an ounce, which is intuitively more acceptable than some of the deflationist models that predict gold at $300 an ounce or alarmist predictions of $8,000 to $10,000 an ounce. While either extreme is a possibility, I do not consider either one to have a very high probability. On the other hand, I believe there is a high probability of seeing gold at around $1,000 an ounce in the not-too-distant future.

Gold is currently less than that because the US dollar is over-valued on foreign exchange markets. A rise in the gold price from $600 to $900 an ounce purely due to weakness in the dollar would imply that the dollar lost 30% to 35%. Such a decline in the US dollar does not have to be uniform against all currencies, and I doubt that it would be; the dollar will probably fall most against the Chinese Renminbi, the Japanese Yen and other Southeast Asian currencies.

A newcomer to the ranks of The Dollar Bears is the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The OECD was quoted in Forbes last week as saying the dollar had to fall by 35% to 50% in order to balance the US current account gap. I don't know how they came up with those figures, but they correspond incredibly well to my own expectation of how much the dollar should decline.

I still maintain that we are not currently in a gold bull market but that the gold price is merely adjusting to monetary inflation and foreign exchange rates. We might well enter into a gold bull market if the decline in the US dollar precipitates a crisis, but we are not there yet.

Paul van Eeden

Hallo zusammen,

ausgerechnet den CEO vom Goldman Sachs zum Finanzminister zu ernennen, erscheint mir doch etwas dreist...auf Deutsch nennt man es den Bock zum Gärtner machen...oder sind sie tatsächlich so verzweifelt?

Mal sehen,welche Auswirkungen es auf den POG hat. Der Dollar ist zumindest etwas nervös heute

Grüße
Simpel

.... hat mir fast die Socken ausgezogen, ich kann es immer noch nicht glauben.
Das wird sehr spannend.

Wenn jemand dazu weiterführende Informationen hat bitte mal was reinstellen.

Gruß Hase

Hallo Osterhase,

habe heute nur dieses im GE-Forum gelesen:

Zitat

New Treasury Secretary Chair of Goldman Sachs
(goldenboy) May 30, 12:07
Well they are bringing in the big guns.
Guess until he is sworn in and therefore eleigible to sit at the head of the committee that has the authority to buy and sell gold all he can do is sell gold stocks short at his alma mater. Must be great to know before everyone else what is going to happen to exchange,gold,interest rates etc. and I am sure he is a perfect gentleman who will not let the firm know what is going to happen next.
Just unload me from the turnip truck!

[...]

goldenboy 12:07 Neah! You've got it all wrong, Goldenboy!
(tlaga) May 30, 12:58
The new Treasury Secretary from Goldman Sachs will be doing what the old Treasury Secretary froom Goldman Sachs was doing.

Here is an excerpt from editorial posted in February 2002:

---
E.g., Goldman Sachs borrows gold from former employee, Robert Rubin, in his capacity of the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, and wires him a collateral of US Treasury securities. Rubin puts these securities in "deep storage" to be released to Goldman Sachs when Goldman Sachs returns the borrowed gold. But instead of returning the borrowed gold, Goldman Sachs wires another load of US Treasury securities as collateral for another gold loan. In the end, during Mr Rubin's tenure as Secretary of the Treasury, Goldman Sachs and other gold bullion dealers borrowed much more gold than could be produced or reacquired on gold market within reasonable time. As a result, when Mr Rubin resigned as Secretary of the Treasury, he left behind what con men call... "a situation". Treasury may not call in the gold loans, because this would expose the fact that they are not repayable, which would force canceling collaterals and official disclosure of the loss of gold to Congress. (Unofficially the whole Congress knows about it, which is yet another reason to begin replacing it in the incoming elections.) In order to maintain a false pretense that national gold bullion reserves are intact, Secretary of the Treasury and the President himself not only deny the loss, but continue to give away the remaining gold reserves which could still be saved. When ultimately confronted about it, they will inevitably claim they had no choice, because their only alternative would be the worldwide economic collapse. (And this, of course, is the same kind of fallacy, as that the abolishing of fiat money would result in destruction of money supply and return to barter economy.)
---

Alles anzeigen

Tlaga bezieht sich auf dieses Editorial

Ich bin auch noch nicht schlau draus geworden...

Gruß
Simpel

Welcome the next crook on the scene....this time no railway men, but from:

...Goldman Sachs... the new Hanibal Lechter !

Wie ich schon vermutet habe denn irgendwoher muessen die Aktien ja kommen die man verkauft.

GO GATA!!!

With the US off for our Memorial Day Holiday, the gold market was dead, but slightly lower. Silver, while quiet, showed independent strength, up 8 to 10 cents in overseas trading.

This morning gold had most all of the outside market factors going its way: much weaker dollar, higher oil prices, a surging silver price, and weak stock markets around the world.

The dollar began to fall off a cliff this morning when this news hit the tape:

Dollar falls on report of Snow's likely successor

TOKYO, May 30 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against the yen and euro on Tuesday after a British newspaper reported that Don Evans, a possible successor to U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, was likely to favour a weaker dollar.

The Times of London said in an article in its online edition that Evans, a former U.S. commerce secretary, may fit the mould of past Treasury secretaries who have favoured a weaker dollar, given his political background…

-END-

It then firmed up somewhat when this news hit the tape, before tanking once again:

8:18 GS CNBC confirms that GS's Henry Paulson will be announced as Treasury Secretary to replace Snow (152.94)
Administration will announce Paulson as Treasury Secretary at 9:15 ET.
* * * * *

The gold action this morning was one of the worst in recent memory relative to silver and against a positive backdrop re outside financial markets. There was either a huge physical market seller, or there were many June specs who wanted to liquidate rather than rollover their long positions ahead of first notice day tomorrow.

Our sources on the Comex floor have felt for days that once the June rollover was out of the way, gold would fly.

Gold, as mentioned above, stumbled badly early, then took off like The Roadrunner, rocketing up to $665 per ounce as it broke its downtrend line when the early selling subdued, or was overwhelmed:

June gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/66

Gold and silver were flying when, as we have seen so many times in the past, the gold shares began to swoon mysteriously. The Gold Cartel was going into action once again and alerting other traders, via its gold share SMOKE SIGNAL program, that it was time to short gold at that point during the Comex trading session. We have seen this far, far too often for this to be a coincidence. Before you could blink, the XAU was DOWN on the day. This is beyond farce with gold up $8 and silver up 45 cents.

The Gold Cartel fleeced Café members and the rest of the gold/silver share world again. Meanwhile, none of the dopes in this moronic industry will say a word about it. Only GATA is out there doing what we can to get the truth told regarding what affects the gold market the most.

This is not bombast. A couple of developments surfaced over the past few days that are bombshells for GATA and added fodder for GATA’s credibility. Not that it would matter to the dingbats in the gold industry. God could declare GATA correct and these lightweights (outside the GATA camp) would call him a liar.

Regarding the shares and what is going on behind the scenes:

To Bill,

I have been a long time reader of Gold Eagle and familiar with your GATA organization.

I have just received an amended prospectus from my Gold fund stating that they have entered into an agreement with JP Morgan Chase to make "Loans of Portfolio Securities" of up to 25% of the funds net assets.

Call me stupid, or call me ignorant, but this practice does not seem like a very smart idea from my perspective, as a holder of Gold Equities.

This seems like a direct manipulation of the Supply / Demand equation. 25% of the net assets translates into a large supply of Gold Stocks flooding the market and driving down the price of gold stocks.

Here is a link to the prospectus. See page 2.

https://www.oppenh
eimerfunds.com/pdf/prospectuses/goldspecialmineralsfund.pdf?_requestid=11068

I have done some additional research, and this practice has been implemented by several other Gold Funds in the last few months.

Review this link to a Google Search:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22Loan
s+of+Portfolio+Securities%22+%2B+Gold&btnG=Google+Search

I am not an expert on the Gold Market, but I do have a basic understanding of economics. If you can create an increase in the supply of any good or service so that there is substantially more available, then you will cause the price of that good or service to fall. What I am seeing looks like a very clear case and practice of price manipulation of the Gold Equities.

I think that this is something GATA should be looking into. Let me know what you think about this practice.

-END-