Getreidemarkt & Wetter

U.S. wheat futures are higher, led by fresh contract highs at the MGE, on concerns that the hard red spring crop continues to suffer because of drought conditions in South Dakota. Hot, dry conditions, with temperatures in the low- to mid-90s Fahrenheit, were seen over the weekend, stressing the crop in its critical heading stage. Forecasts for next week are even hotter, with readings of 95-100 degrees expected, according to DTN Meteorlogix. "Production prospects have already been diminished by recent drought conditions," DTN says. Continuing drought in the northern Plains has likely reduced the impact of higher spring wheat acres and additional old-crop supplies found in the latest USDA acreage and stocks reports, says Jerry Gidel, analyst at North America Risk Management Services in Chicago. Australia's southwestern winter wheat belt saw its driest June on record, adding to the bullish atmosphere in the global wheat market.

Quelle: http://www.futuresource.com/ne…sp?i=i4678241050866942016

Hier der Endloskontrakt Weizen an der im obigen Text erwähnten Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE):

http://www.futuresource.com/ch…0x550&d=HIGH&b=CANDLE&st=

"Hot, dry conditions forecast for western Canada through next week gave solid support to canola. The driest area in western Canada is in Manitoba and is focused on the Winnipeg region, analysts said. "The Weather Channel is forecasting 43 degrees Celsius as a mid-week high next week and that would definitely hurt the crop", said one trader."
Quelle: http://www.futuresource.com/ne…sp?i=i4679104807445725248

Hier der Chart von Canola-Raps in Winnipeg (noch ist er günstig im historischen Vergleich):
http://www.futuresource.com/ch…=CANDLE&st=RSI%2814%29%3B

Grüße,
Zucchero

p.s.: Am heutigen 6. Juli ist der Drought-Monitor aktualisiert worden:
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

Es scheint, dass sich nach Jahren weltweit guter Ernten das Blatt endgültig gewendet hat. Jüngster Leidtragender von Trockenheit: Der westaustralische Weizengürtel rund um Perth. Dort wurde - Australien liegt auf der Südhalbkugel! - in den vergangenen Wochen die Wintersaat ausgebracht. Von der ist noch nicht viel aufgegangen. Und das, was aufgegangen ist, kümmert nach dem trockensten Juni seit Beginn der Wetteraufzeichnungen vor sich hin.

Grüße,
Zucchero

Grim truth in grain heartland
From: By Leticia Makin
July 10, 2006

(...)

The WA wheat belt, responsible for about a third of Australia’s wheat produce, has endured the driest June on record and the Grains Council of Australia has predicted this will cause the national wheat crop to fall about 5 million tonnes short of the expected produce for the season.

Western Australia Pastoralists and Graziers Association grain growers Chief Leon Bradley, himself a farmer from Bolgart, predicted that could be a conservative estimate.

“Crops are at least a month late and this means the rainfall cuts out before farmers can harvest their crop. Unless something freakish happens it will be too late for the north end to get the potential out of their crop,” Mr Bradley said.

"A significant percentage of the crop hasn't been seeded. We also know that of the crop that has been seeded a significant amount has not yet emerged from the ground. I would predict almost 40 per cent may still come," he said.

The wheat shortage is also likely to cause city-dwellers hip-pocket pain. An international grain shortage is threatening to blow out prices worldwide and at least one further rise in Australian grain prices appears imminent.

The projected annual outcome of about 8.6 million tonnes would be down eight per cent on last year and has surprised farmers after a promising summer rainfall season and an excellent harvest last year.

The infertile winter could result in a national crop of about 18 million tonnes or less, well below the five-year average of 21 million tonnes and massive shortfall on last year's big 25 million tonne yield.

Quelle: http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,19741106-2,00.html

Zitat aus dem am heutigen Mittwoch um 1430 Uhr unserer Zeit veröffentlichten amerikanischen Crop Production Report:

"If realized this will be the lowest harvested area since 1961 and the
lowest production since 1988."

(betrifft Hart-Weizen: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Durum_wheat)

Zum kompletten Report:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.ed…/pcp-bb/2006/crop0706.txt

Zucchero

Hi alfy,

wo bekommst du denn deine Körner her? Baust du die selbst an?

Wenn Nein, hast du spezielle Lagerräume für das zu verheizende Getreide (feuchter Keller/ trockenes Silo) ?

Gruß, Zucchero

@all

Hier der soeben veröffentlichte Ausblick für den heutigen Handel in Chicago:

CBOT Corn Outlook: Seen 2-4c Higher On USDA Data, Weather

mehr:
http://www.futuresource.com/ne…sp?i=i4680754255265136704