Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter

    Eric bestaetigt mein Gefuehl. :]..jetzt schlafe ich gut.


    GOLD HUI – Major break-out within a month?


    by Eric Hommelberg


    September 09, 2006


    On September 03 we send out an alert to our members suggesting the HUI could be on the verge of a major break-out since its 353 resistance level was being challenged for the 4th time. On September 06 the HUI slashed the 353 with ease indeed and rocketed all the way up to 369. Unfortunately the HUI break-out couldn’t be confirmed by gold and down we went thereby classifying the HUI break-out as a false one. So were to go from here? What can we expect and what should be watched closely coming days/weeks?


    Well, lets have a peek first at the HUI chart itself. It’s obvious that the spike above 353 was a false break-out so a new triangle formation has been formed which should be taken out first before a major ‘BUY’ could be generated.


    Clearly visible is the formation of the new A-B triangle. This formation however won’t exist for a long period of time since the A-B lines will be crossing within a month..The HUI finds support at current levels at 337 (50 dma and B-line). If these support levels fail then the HUI will find support at its 200 dma (320).. So the 320-340 area could be considered as a strong support area.


    Whether or not the HUI will manage to break this formation to the upside anytime soon depends on the gold price. The sudden drop in the gold price scared many investors out of the gold arena past days but things aren’t that bad as they seem to be. Gold just didn’t manage to break out of its triangle formation and is heading down now to its previous summer lows in the low $600 area.


    Despite the fact the $22 drop in just two trading sessions isn’t exactly what the average gold investor is dreaming of it isn’t most likely the start of a major correction either. Why not? Simple, all major corrections of the past 4 years started off in the face of severe overbought conditions. In other words, gold never started a major correction while witnessing neutral technicals. Therefore the odds are this sudden drop has almost run its course. Gold finds support right now at previous summer lows in the low $600’s. When these support levels fail gold will find support at its 200 dma ($590).
    Yes, the downside risk is only a mere $20 from here on while the gold’s price objective after breaking the triangle formation to the upside exceeds $800!


    So again gold failed to break out to the upside of its triangle formation and we have to wait patiently for the next attempt.. When that will be is any-ones guess but the chart suggests it will be within a month from now.



    Summary:


    HUI break-out above 353 was a false one since it couldn’t be confirmed by gold


    HUI finds strong support in the 320-340 area


    HUI must break its newly formed triangle formation to the upside before a new major “BUY’ could be generated (currently a close above 369 is required)


    Gold failed to break-out of its triangle formation and fell back to the lower side ..


    Gold finds strong support in the $590 - $600 area


    Current formation will be taken out within a month.


    If gold succeeds in breaking out to the upside then it will mark the end of the down-trend which started in May.


    The price objective for gold once broken out to the upside exceeds $800+ :]... End



    ....I buy it !!!....that's the picture for me, after the new moon from 22.September the wheel starts turning. IMO.


    Just go and get it if you haven't got it :D


    We'll see !!


    Gruss


    Eldo ;)

    Es geht genau in die Richtung wie manche geschrieben haben.


    Hommelberg, Mahendra, etc... etc...


    Die Shorts wollen nochmal das Juni Low testen, bzw. 200 dma.


    Diese Tage/Woche der Haertetest, die 581 USD schaffen sie aber nicht IMO.


    Mahendra sagte, buy at 581 USD :rolleyes:


    Aber:... IMO


    Gold finds strong support in the $590 - $600 area


    HUI finds strong support in the 320-340 area


    Ich schlagte gerade vorhin bei PoG 594 $ mit der letzten Kohle bei einem Gold Call 700 $ der bis 06/2009 geht zu.


    Silber Calls sind sicherlich auch interessant.


    Wenn die soviel Put schreien, sage ich Call.


    Bin gespannt was die bei der Comex spaeter machen, sorry Crimex !


    Es wird nun in den naechsten Tagen alles abgefeuert was nur geht, ich gehe jetzt in Deckung. :D


    Frueher oder spaeter geht den Cabals die Munition wieder aus.


    XEX

    Moin Bugs und die es werden wollen,


    was habt Ihr denn mit meinem geliebten PoG gemacht? Das ist aber nicht fair, den so zu verhaun. ;(


    Doch nochmal unter die 600. Und Silber unter die 11 oder was ist mit den Charts los? :D

    Zeit ist der Freund von wunderbaren Unternehmen und der Feind von mittelmäßigen Unternehmen. Warren Buffett

    Seit wann hätte denn Mahendra jemals was sinnvolles geschrieben?


    Naja, beim Goldpreis ist sowieso noch alles unklar. Neues Tief unter 600 aber über 540 sollte wohl eher bullish sein?


    HUI ist immer noch nicht aus dem Diamanten raus. Und SKI könnte ein triple sell liefern wenn es ab jetzt 1 Woche seitwärts bei den Minen geht.


    Wenn es passieren sollte, geht's auf HUI 220. Auch kein Beinbruch. Agincourt heute z.B. schwach aber nicht gefallen. Was ich jetzt habe halte ich.


    Ansonsten werde ich nochmals einen Wert aus meinem Laborportfolio schmeißen, hab mich etwas verspekuliert mit ATV-maker Polaris (Kunststück stark zu wachsen bei 14% Marktwachstum seit 1990. Das ist aber nun so langsam vorbei).
    Immer dran denken. Eine Gesellschaft muß zuerst einmal gut sein. Und dann muß sie Glück haben. Die einen haben Glück (Minen, Alcoa, Polaris), die anderen machen sich ihr Glück (3M, Graco).


    Gruß
    S.

    Hallo Saccard


    Ueber Mahendra kan man geteilter Meinung sein,wie bei fast jeden Analysten. Der hat manchmal Momente da liegt er gut mit seinen Einschaetzungen,manchmal spinnt er komplett und ist auf einmal Dollar Fan und quatscht von Bond kaufen wie du.
    Du aenderst auch oft deine Meinung. btw
    Fuer mich macht es keinen Sinn das mit SKI der HUI auf 220 fallen kann.
    Das kannst jemand anders verzapfen, es ist laecherlich so etwas zu behaupten.
    Wenn ein Analyst oder Guru mein Gefuehl bestaetigt dann liege ich meistens richtig und fuehle mich dann auch besser.


    Wir werden ja sehen wie viel Munition das Gold Kartel auf Lager hat in den naechsten Stunden oder Tage. Sicher kann es nach Stabilisierung seitwaerts gehen, Gold und Silber holt dann Luft und schockt dann die Gegenseite spaetestens nach dem 22.September.


    Auf das kann ich auch noch warten....


    Wie auch immer, Fasten your Seatbelts, its D-Day now.
    Innerhalb 40 Stunden ist der PoG wieder ueber 600 USD..IMO
    Its the last big washout in 2006... nothing else !
    Bei den Preisen kommen sehr viele physische Kaeufer daher, in Indien freut man sich, die Wedding Season faengt jetzt an. :D
    So eine Chance so guenstig einzukaufen kommt dieses Jahr nicht mehr wieder.


    Good luck ;)


    Eldo

    @Baron


    Eldo spielt auf die Mondphase an. Hier speziell den Neumond am 22.09.


    Grüße

    Grüße
    Silberfuchs


    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    "Stirbt ein Bediensteter während einer Dienstreise, so ist damit die Dienstreise beendet."
    (Kommentar zum Bundesreisekostengesetz)

    Frederic Lasserre, director of commodities research at Societe Generale SA in Paris, said a 50 percent plunge in metals prices is ``likely.'' Investor Marc Faber, managing director of Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd. and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, agreed that a slowdown in the world economy means lower prices are ahead.


    ``Some industrial commodities may have peaked out for good,'' said Faber, who told investors to bail out of U.S. stocks a week before the 1987 so-called Black Monday crash. ``Grains and precious metals may continue to rise as they aren't tied to the economic cycle,'' he said in an e-mail.

    Zitat

    Frederic Lasserre, director of commodities research at Societe Generale SA in Paris, said a 50 percent plunge in metals prices is ``likely.''


    Bei gewissen Metallen (Nickel, Kupfer) halte ich das durchaus für möglich. Bei Gold eher unwahrscheinlich.


    Zitat

    also rein in die Calls ....?!?!?!


    Eine alte Börsenregel lautet: Nie in ein fallendes Messer greifen. Daher würde ich aktuell nicht in ein Gold-Call gehen. Was spricht dagegen, dass Gold nochmals auf 540 USD/Unze geht? Vor einem Jahr noch hätte ein Prognose von 540 USD/Unze auf Jahresfrist durchaus als optimistisch gegolten.


    Klar, die Permabullen an Board hören es nicht gerne - aber auch bei Gold gilt: Die Börse ist keine Einbahnstrasse!

    bob


    Kurzfristig ist alles drin, wir reden von max.2-3i Wochen, Bob. ;)


    Langfristig wird Gold/Silber steigen, bei den anderen Metallen ist alles moeglich.


    Oil ist weiter gefallen weil die in Iran nun sagen sie machen doch nichts nuklear. Eine Media Propaganda, sonst nichts.


    Schoen die Welt ist wieder in Ordnung. :D


    Sinclair sagte:


    The Formula is correct. Gold is going to $1650. Spin is fixated on making everything just dandy for the mid term elections. The dollar upside is limited by the Chinese Wall.


    If you are long gold anything on margin shame on you. The Green Doctrine if practiced would result in higher highs in all the shares now being raided by the bears.


    Traders can do whatever they please because in truth 95% of the non-professionals will get creamed.


    The world is dead center in the slippery slope and no one cares until it hits the fan. Iran is going nuclear and that is that. Hezbollah is re-arming, re-grouping and getting ready to show their faces again. Afghanistan is getting hot, having increased suicide bombing incidents to forty as compared to one in the same period last year. Iraq is simply a rolling disaster.


    But all is well at the COMEX and NYSE for now. :D


    --------------------------------



    Komisch das manche immer noch davon reden das Kupfer in einer Hausse ist.
    http://www.goldseiten.de/conte…berichte.php?storyid=3131


    Egal, nur Papierverluste z.Zt. wer aber physisch Gold und Silber will es geht auch konservativ mit CEF..... jeder hat eben ein anderes Risikoprofil.
    Die Calls sind mit langem Expiredate, was soll mir da gross passieren mit target 675 /700 USD und Silber mit 13 Dollar. ?(


    Vielleicht dreht sich die Sache noch vor Ladenschluss, who knows.


    Lets face it and watch the show, its not my first scary movie.


    Gruss


    XEX

    Data updated to Friday 8 September 2006.


    There are a couple of interesting points on this graph. The Island Reversal formation in June is a fairly reliable indicator of a change of trend and it worked, at least for the moment. Gold gapped up above $600 and quickly moved to $660 plus at which point those people who had missed out selling the first time around came in saying that this time they were not waiting for $700 and dumped their positions.


    The second interesting observation is the strong support line just above $600 which has contained the 3 declines over the past couple of months, a level reached again last Friday, 8 September. The question is whether this level will hold again. If it does hold then there is the potential for gold to move rapidly above $700 in the near future. If this is the case we could label the peak at $674 on 14 July 2006 (Comex) as the peak of wave (i), the first upwave in the new bull leg and the correction to the recent $608 level as wave (ii).


    If this support level just above $600 gives way, then we should expect another visit to the lower $500 regions. That would then confirm that the 14 July $674 peak was the end of the B-Wave and that the decline to test the lows above $500+ would complete the C-Wave. That would also complete Major Wave TWO, the biggest correction in the gold market to date.


    In some ways another test of the $500+ 25 year base break out level should be expected. This is typical technical action after such a massive upward break. It is what is sometimes referred to as the “Good-bye kiss”. The price touches the breakout level and then takes off. If this happens, any price in the $500-$550 range would provide a great opportunity to add to gold and gold share holdings.


    LATE NOTE: The piece above was written during Sunday night New York time. I have just observed that gold has declined in Asian markets early Monday morning to the $596 level. I am not sure how genuine this price is. We need to see what the London and New York markets do, particularly the London Fixes, before jumping to the conclusion that the support level above $600 has given way.


    Alf Field


    11 September 2006

    Kein Wunder...... Bla- Bla- Bla.... und schon sinkt der Bedarf an Rohstoffen in 48 Stunden.


    Ich glaube das befreundete Zentralbanken dem Goldcartel wieder mal aushelfen, der Beilandskranz fuer den 5.Jahrestag vielleicht.....


    Diese Saecke ! X(



    Trichet: Global Growth Could Slow
    Monday September 11, 12:00 pm ET
    Trichet: Global Growth Could Slow Slightly, but Will Remain Robust :D



    BASEL, Switzerland (AP) --


    European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Monday that global economic growth could slow a little next year, but will likely remain robust.


    Growth is "likely to continue to be quite dynamic," said Trichet, chairman of the Group of 10 leading industrial nations' central bank governors, who often meet on the sidelines of the Bank for International Settlements' X( meetings in Basel.



    Even if 2007 represents a slowdown from this year's strong growth, he told reporters, "We had the sentiment that the global economy will continue to grow at a robust pace."


    Trichet said the risks to global growth are unchanged, but that uncertainties had increased, citing the price of oil and commodities, protectionism and the possibility of increased risk in global financial markets.


    He said central bank chiefs found the short life of financial market turbulence earlier this year noteworthy.


    "We noted the turbulences we had during the month of May had been surmounted quite rapidly," he said. "We probably have improved the resilience of the system, but there are risks ... There is a risk that at any moment there is a sharp reappreciation of risks."


    Trichet said the resilience of economies can be improved with structural reforms and greater flexibility. The credibility of central banks, he said, can help systems weather higher oil prices and some degree of financial turbulence.


    Trichet declined to comment on whether global monetary tightening must continue next year, but said, "the solid anchoring of inflation expectations is considered by all of us to be essential." ;( ;( ;(

    Lottery Nation :D



    By Rich Smith (TMFDitty)




    According to a pair of surveys commissioned by the Consumer Federation of America and the Financial Planning Association last year, a sizable portion of the American public is convinced that the best chance of acquiring real wealth is through winning the lottery. An even larger portion of the populace believes they will never amass even $200,000 over their lifetimes.


    Balderdash. On both counts.


    Myth No. 1: You can win the lottery.


    According to the survey of 1,000 adult Americans, 21% agree with the statement that "winning the lottery represents the most practical way [for them personally] to accumulate several hundred thousand dollars." That's great news for lottery operators, but pretty depressing news for our nation, our educational system, and most of all, for the folks who hold this sad notion.


    We all know that the chance of winning a lottery is just 1 in 80 million or so -- or we know that in theory. But too many people take the "80 million" as a given, and therefore not worth thinking about. They dream of the "1" and just hope against hope. Problem is, there is no hope.


    I mean that quite literally. No hope. None at all.


    Consider: On average and over time, for every $1 spent on a lottery ticket, a buyer can expect to receive approximately $0.44 back in "winnings." Now say you're a happy-go-lucky rich guy with $10,000 to blow on the lottery. Say you want to "invest" that money in lottery tickets and keep on "investing" the proceeds of your bets in even more lottery tickets. How long do you think you could keep this game rolling?


    Answer: If you buy $10,000 worth of $1 lottery tickets on Day 1, then statistically speaking, you'll have $4,400 left to spend on Day 2. Do that, and by Day 3, you're down to $1,936. Keep going, and by the end of the week, you've got $31.93 left to your name. Five more days and you're all washed up -- just $0.53 in your pocket and too poor to buy another ticket.


    Myth No. 2: Dang! Myth No. 1 was my only hope!


    The survey's other frightening factoid was that only 26% of individuals surveyed believed they could ever amass $200,000 in savings over the course of their lifetime.


    Ready for some irony? In 1996, state-run lotteries consumed $34 billion. That works out to a little more than $130 for every man, woman, and child living in the U.S. at the time, in 1996 dollars. Throw in the effects of inflation, and in 2005 dollars, it's worth $158. Want to guess how much you would have to put away every month in order to end up with $200,000 in your brokerage account at the end of 30 years?


    Smart cookie. If you can put as little as $158 per month into a simple S&P 500 index fund, compounding at its historical rate of 10.5% per annum, then 30 years of diligent saving and investing will find you sitting on a little more than $200,000 in savings at the end. (And mind you, this is all in 2005 dollars -- not those inflation-eroded greenbacks they'll be printing in 2035.)


    Myth No. 3: Huh? There is a third myth?


    Indeed there is. What surprised me almost as much as the misconceptions revealed in the survey results, was the inherent misconception on which the survey was based: that if someone wants to become "rich," $200,000 will do the trick.


    Company
    Dividend Yield
    Annual Return on $200,000

    General Motors (NYSE: GM)
    3.4%
    $6,800

    General Electric (NYSE: GE)
    2.9%
    $5,800

    Ford (NYSE: F)
    2.4%
    $4,800

    Kodak (NYSE: EK)
    2.4%
    $4,800

    ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)
    1.8%
    $3,600



    Worse, the average yield of a portfolio such as the one described above is 2.6% (which would, incidentally, net you only $5,200 per annum). If you go the simple route of investing in an S&P 500 index fund, however, your dividend yield would drop to 1.7%, and a $3,400 annual return.


    You can do better


    Fortunately, we have a solution that can help you achieve the survey-posers goal of $200,000 much faster than an index fund can. One that can help you surpass it and move toward the $1 million in net wealth that you would actually need to live comfortably in retirement. 8o


    Eine wirklich tolle Formulierung.
    Wir sehen nocheinmal die 500$+x als eine Art Abschiedskuss, klingt verführerisch. Bevor dann der Preis für immer in höhere Sphären abhebt.


    Also die 500+x sehen und danach skyrocketten

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