Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Bald stellt Bush uns den neuen Weltbank IMF Chef vor, der letzte, der mit dem Loch in der Socke, :D...ist draussen, der versprach seiner Freundin zu viel.

Out with the old and in with the new - gold production shifts to China
Chengdu.

May 28. INTERFAX-CHINA

China will become the world's largest gold producer by 2010, an industry insider said at the Western China Mining Summit 2007, held in Chengdu on Friday.

Chinese production of gold increased by 162.8 tons to 247.2 tons between 1997 and 2006, a trend that has also been mirrored in other developing countries like Peru, Russia and Indonesia, Morino G. Pieterse, editor of Goldletter International, a gold investment report, said. Emerging gold producing countries have increased output from 17.7 percent of global production in 1997, to a current 29.8 percent.

Conversely, gold production from traditional gold producing countries such as the United States and South Africa has steadily declined in recent years from 362 tons and 527 tons in 1997, to 251.8 tons and 291.8 tons in 2006 respectively. Across the board, gold output from traditional gold producing countries has fallen from 54.3 percent of global production in 1997, to 36.1 percent in 2006.

"China's gold output surpassed Australia's last year, is due to surpass U.S. production this year, and will surpass South African production within two years," Pieterse said.

In recent times, consumer demand has fallen steadily in line with gold production. However, this has not been reflected in gold prices, which averaged at $276.50 per ounce at the end of 2001 but have since spiked to $677.0 per ounce on April 30 this year.

Pieterse explained that skyrocketing global gold prices over the last 10 years has been led mainly by excessive market speculation, particularly by de-hedging in the last five years. Because the price surge is not a result of any significant supply and demand problems, gold prices will not rise above $700 per ounce in the future, Pieterse predicted.

Meanwhile, gold as a percentage of global currency has fallen from 84 percent in 1950, to 10 percent at present, Pieterse said. "While the United States still holds 76 percent of its currency reserves as gold, China holds only 1.4 percent, and has no real intention of significantly increasing that figure in the future."

He commented that the widespread belief that emerging Asian economies, mainly China, will mass-purchase gold to make up central bank reserves is fundamentally mistaken and based on outdated western opinions.

"Everything I've learnt in the last 25 years about the gold market is now useless and outdated," Pieterse stated.

"Asian central banks are not mass-purchasing gold, and are far more interested in the base metals market to feed growing development," he added.

Nevertheless, investment in gold mining in China has rapidly increased over the last few years, rising from $5.1 billion in 2005 to $7.1 billion in 2006.

Growing investment also indicates that the recent rise in production costs has not curtailed investment. Although the cost of production has risen to around $400 per ounce, leaping gold prices have actually increased profit margins from 12.5 percent in 2003 to a current 43 percent, which is further encouraging investment.

While production costs in traditional gold mining countries are rapidly increasing, Chinese production costs still remain relatively low.

Steve Ryan, general manager of Oxiana, a precious metals company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, commented that although local governments are sometimes unwilling to grant foreign companies access to very profitable mines, they are also unwilling to invest significant sums in prospecting and development. "There is plenty of room for exploration expansion by foreign companies in western China," Ryan said.

At present, China only attracts approximately 3 percent of global exploration investment, and given the relative lack of investment in western China, this figure can be expected to greatly increase in the next 20 years, Ryan said. One of the main reasons behind low foreign investment is a lack of confidence in China's legal structure, with western companies uncertain that their investment will be secure, particularly as mine investment can run into hundreds of millions of dollars.

James Moore, president and CEO of InterCitic Minerals, noted that the main problem was in the wording of Chinese mining law. "At the moment, the law states that a foreign company has 'priority rights' to a mine, if that was changed to 'full rights', foreign investment would flood into China almost immediately. However, it is more likely that there will be no change in the law, and it will take several foreign company success stories to increase foreign investor confidence in Chinese mine exploration," he said.

Furthermore, Pietrese added he considers the political risks in China to be minimal, and stressed that it is more a matter of finding suitable business partners and adjusting to the Chinese ways of carrying out business.

"China is now dictating global markets, not the West.
At the same time though, it's in China's interest that the U.S. dollar does not fall by too much," Piterse said.

Pieterse also noted that recent media reports of U.S. dollar devaluation are "wildly over-exaggerated". The 20-year low reported in 2004 was only a temporary one-tenth of a cent drop, which quickly bounced back on market corrections. Conversely, the 14 percent temporary rise in 2005 received relatively little media attention.

Moreover, when the renminbi was de-pegged against the dollar in 2005, the dollar only fell by approximately 5 percent, Pieterse said.

But with monetary reserves of just over $1 trillion, a heavily devaluated dollar will still have a negative effect on China for the near future.

-DD

JPM Copper rigging settlement:

J.P. Morgan Settles a Lawsuit Related to 1990s Copper Scandal

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070529/copper_market.html?.v=1

Le Metropole Members,

(I know it is late, but I could not resist)

Italians claim country run by Goldman Sachs

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 1:10am BST 30/05/2007

Goldman Sachs men: Massimo Tononi, Mario
Draghi and Romano Prodi

Italians grumble that Goldman Sachs runs their country, much as the Jesuits ran countries during the Counter-Reformation.

Premier Romano Prodi is an ex-Goldman Sachs man, as is central bank president Mario Draghi and the deputy treasury chief Massimo Tononi.

The price paid for having so many friends at court is that the elite bank inevitably becomes entangled in the financial scandals that so often swirl around the Italian political class.

For the past month, Goldman Sachs has been dragged into a widening corruption probe into the Siemens-Italtel merger dating back to the mid-1990s.

The inquiry has moved uncomfortably close to Mr Prodi, who was on the Goldman Sachs payroll from 1990 to 1993 and again in 1997 after his first stint as prime minister.

Politicians from the Forza Italia party have jumped on suggestions that Goldman Sachs may be involved, making damning allegations in the Chamber of Deputies under parliamentary immunity.

The inquiry is just one of several probes across Europe into a ?400m (£273m) network of black accounts used by Siemens to grease deals.

Prosecutors in Bolzano, Northern Italy, claim to have unearthed a Siemens payment of DM10m (£3.2m) to a Goldman Sachs account in Frankfurt in July 1997. From there it ricocheted around the world, going to London and Tokyo before returning to Germany in yen - according to Italy's financial newspaper Il Sole.

A Goldman Sachs employee summoned for questioning earlier this month said the DM10m payment had been made for an unknown third party.

Italian Treasury Police raided the Milan office of Goldman Sachs in February, where they removed a file called "MTononi/memo-Prodi 02.doc", among other papers.

They have also obtained a letter to Siemens from the Frankfurt office of Goldman Sachs in 1993 pitching for business on the Italtel deal.

At the time, Italtel was being privatised by the Italian state holding company IRI, which Mr Prodi had run in the 1980s and would soon run again before becoming prime minister in 1994.

The letter said Goldman Sachs's "knowledge of IRI and its management could be extremely important in a negotiation. Since March 1990 our senior adviser in Italy has been Professor Romano Prodi".

It is reported that Goldman Sachs later secured the work as an adviser on the Siemens-Italtel merger. The bank refused to comment, deeming the matter confidential.

"We refute any suggestion that our actions are improper and we are co-operating fully with the authorities in the investigation," said the bank.

Bolzano prosecutors said Mr Prodi is not a target of their probe although they are examining his fees from Goldman Sachs. Mr Prodi received £1.4m between 1990 and 1993 through a Bologna consulting company named Analisi e Studi Economici, jointly owned with his wife. The company secretary later told The Daily Telegraph that much of the money came from Goldman Sachs.

Mr Prodi has been dogged by allegations that he sold off state properties cheaply to friends and political allies.

The most controversial was the sale of the Cirio-Bertolli-De Rica food group in October 1993 to Fi.Svi, a shell-company, that sold it on immediately for 310bn lira (£100m) to Unilever, where Mr Prodi had been a paid consultant until weeks earlier. Credito Italiano had valued the stake at 600bn-900bn lira.

Goldman Sachs was deeply involved in this transaction. A memo from the bank's London office sent to Unilever in Milan, dated August 24, 1993 and marked "strictly confidential", discusses the deal in depth and suggests that Mr Prodi might have been involved - a claim that he has always denied. "Fi.Svi is going to call Prodi in order to have full support in this discussion with Unilever," it said.

A Rome prosecutor, Giuseppa Geremia, concluded in November 1996 that there was enough evidence to press charges against Mr Prodi for conflict of interest, but by then he was prime minister. She set off a firestorm.

Ms Geremia later told The Daily Telegraph that intruders broke into her offices. The case was shut down within weeks by superiors. She was exiled to Sardinia.

Allegations of wrongdoing by public figures come with a big health warning in Italy, where political scores are often settled through criminal probes. "Goldman Sachs is being dragged into this by the Right-wing politicians to get at Prodi. It is trial by newspapers," said one observer.

-END-

Und nun warten alle, darum ruehrt sich nichts

""Rein fundamental sehe ich noch eine Ausspülung Ende Juni""

Vielleicht war oder ist das Mai ?

Dem faehrt dann der Zug weg wenn er wartet.

IMO erstmal eine kleine Rally vom 4 - 8 Juni, dann gehts seitlich weiter fuer ein Monat.

Timing.....den genauen Punkt zu erwischen ist und belibt eben eine Glueckssache.

Wie schon Gogh erwaehnt hat koennten die anderen Aktien die PM mit runterziehen....kurzfristig !

Mal schaun..

XEX

@GB

Trotz der Korrektur beim HUI hat sich RSM.V gut erholt, Schneewittchen wachte auf.

Kauf bloss nicht mehr davon !

Ich mische gern mein Bauchgefuehl, Astrologie, Charts der PM's sowie die Prognosen von bekannten Analysten zusammen, erst dann lese ich den Kaffeesatz.

Sicher die Meinung von bestimmten Usern hier zaehlt auch mit.

Der Astrologe Merriman schreibt in seinen Buch Voraussagen 2007 das kritische Umschwungdaten fuer Gold und Silber an diesen Tagen beginnen koennten.

2007:

24. bis 25.Mai..hatten wir
21.Juni (4.Juni bis 1.Juli ist insgesamt hervorgehoben !)
9.-10. Juli
31. Juli
9. August
7. bis 10. September
10. Oktober
2. bis 5. November
12. November ( 7. bis 19. November)
10. Dezember
21. bis 24. Dezember (18. bis 30. Dezember)

Gold needs to clear $658 on a closing basis to have a chance of a turnaround but more especially, it will need a convincing close above $666 to put an end to the bears’ hopes of pushing it down through $650.

About the best that can be said for it right now is that the longer it continues this go nowhere period, the more the technical oscillators move lower and get a chance to press into oversold territory.

http://jsmineset.com/cwsimages…3_Chart_for_5-29-2007.pdf

Schon interessant wie man heute in den Medien fuern Narren gehalten wird.

Man nutzte das Shanghai Syndom und den Kursverlust von 6% und behauptet gleich das der Bedarf an Metallen zurueckgeht.

Wenn die eine finanzkrise haben dann fleuchten die genauso in Gold wie die anderen auch.

Auch Oil ist darauf gefallen, was es nicht alles gibt, die fahren jetzt schon weniger mit dem Auto nach der Nachricht.

Wer es glaubt wird seelig.

Abwarten..... until the shit hits the fan,

PM Amigos

XEX

Edel.... ;)....gut gemacht !

Ein grosser Luftballon war das wieder mit Shanghai, welche Blase platzt am ersten.... der DOW oder die asiatischen Maerkte ?

Die reden nur ueber die super Blase Shanghai aber nicht vom DOW.

Wenn ich mich nicht verhoert habe hat man heute einige USD T - Bonds abgestossen. (Trust GS Bonds)

Den Fetzen gleich gegen Gold eintauschen, irgendwann kannst die Dinger einrahmen und schaun wie sie wertlos wurden sagt M. Faber.

Schau mal wie der DOW auf die Shanghai Drama Show reagiert.

And the show goes on.....

Tango 654 und HUI 320

XEX

Der Krimi geht nun seit 4 Tagen...... oder Walzer
Immer im Takt bleiben..