Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Bush 'brainwashed' Blair

2006-12-20 08:12

New York - British Prime Minister Tony Blair was in favour of announcing a timetable to pull troops out of Iraq, but was "brainwashed" out of it by President George W Bush, Iraq's vice president said on Tuesday.

Vice president Tareq al-Hashemi told New York's Council on Foreign Relations that when he spoke with Blair about three months ago, the British leader was supportive of his appeal for the United States and Britain to say when they would withdraw.

"I had just convinced him," Hashemi said. "He promised he was going to discuss the subject with President Bush, but at the end of the day, it's quite unfortunate, that your president (made) some sort of brainwashing of Mr Blair."

But Hashemi also said any withdrawal of troops should be conditional on US training of Iraq's security forces.

Blair, who visited Baghdad on Sunday, defended on Tuesday his nation's close US alliance in response to an influential British think tank's report that found the relationship has damaged Britain's credibility in the Middle East.

Hashemi, in comments to Reuters after his Council on Foreign Relations address, said that Blair had been "open-minded" about announcing a troop pull-out.

"He promised me to take this message to Mr Bush, in fact, and he said 'I'm going to support that'," he said.

Hashemi said announcing a timetable for the withdrawal of American, British and other troops would help bring together warring Sunni and Shi'ite factions.

"The problem is the timetable withdrawal. If you announce that tomorrow, the problem is going to be mitigated," he said.

"The American troops, the American administration should be committed with a timetable conditional withdrawal from Iraq. This is very important."

But Hashemi added that the United States had made a commitment to Iraq, any therefore withdrawal of troops should be conditional on the training of Iraq's own security forces.

He blamed the sectarian tensions in his country on "foreign interference".

The Iraq Study Group, a bipartisan panel of former senior US officials, recommended this month that Bush withdraw most US forces from combat in Iraq by early 2008 and focus instead on training Iraqi forces.

The report has increased pressure on Bush to find a way out of a war that started with the US-led invasion in March, 2003, and has killed more than 2 900 US troops and tens of thousands of Iraqis..... End

(350.000) habe ich gelesen. 1=120

Reuters

. :D...Merry Christmas !

The Rise of Russia and the Coming Resource Wars

Nur ein Teil.......von
http://news.goldseek.com/TacticalInvestor/1166644103.php

Putin made the following comments on May 10, 2006

Our goods are traded on global markets. Why are not they traded in Russia?" Putin said. "The ruble must become a more widespread means of international transactions. To this end, we need to open a stock exchange in Russia to trade in oil, gas, and other goods to be paid for with rubles," Putin said Wednesday.

In his Wednesday's address, Putin urged work on achieving ruble convertibility sped up and completed by July, six months ahead of the original January 1, 2007 deadline.

If this exchange comes into existence it could have the equivalent effect of several Iraqi/Afghanistan style wars occurring simultaneously. The dollar will pull back dramatically as all this excess paper that was used to buy oil will now find its way back to the United States. This means the rate of inflation will rise significantly and commodities such as oil, natural gas, Gold, Silver, Platinum etc will experience huge price surges.

Many resource rich nations are tired of being paid for good in worthless dollars and many of them want to do something about it. The only nation in a position to seriously challenge the US in this area is Russia. Even though there are other nuclear nations out there none of them have an arsenal that is significant enough to threaten the US. When we mean none we are referring to nations that are not allies of the US, hence the entire western European hemisphere can be ruled out and Israel which is rumored to have over 200 war heads can also be ruled. So that really leaves China, India, Russia, Pakistan etc. Even though China is in the midst of a massive military build up it cannot single handedly challenge the US? The only nation that has enough firepower to take on the US is Russia. Note they are the largest producers of oil (they do not hold the biggest reserves) and they have the worlds largest supply of Natural gas. They also control over 70% of the worlds Palladium and the list goes on. Hence Russia is in a position to challenge the Dominance of the Dollar and actually go out there and start asking for payments in other currencies. When this is done a lot of worthless dollar based paper will be left out there which means that prices of natural resources will accelerate even more when priced in dollars.

What Russia is effectively doing right now is attacking the US where it hurts?

The cold war between Russia and the United States never ended it just took a different course. Putin is determined to teach the West a lesson and bring Russia to the forefront of world matters. They are busy exerting their influence over all the countries that made up the former soviet union, forming military relationships with the Chinese, supplying the Iranians with weapons and know how, supplying the Venezuelans with weapons and the list goes on. Note how both Russia and China are both embracing rogue nations but nations that are loaded to the gills with natural resources.

One can see how Russia and China have both changed their stance and attitude towards the US in the last few years; as two permanent members on the security council they openly oppose any strong action that comes from the US regardless of whether the threat is credible or not. Two examples; they have opposed the US policy on North Korea and Iran every single step of the way and when they do agree its only because the original decrees are so watered down that they are insignificant at best.

Conclusion

It appears that Russia is looking for means to deal a severe blow to the United States. One way of doing this is to place all the majority of the assets under state control and then use these assets as a weapon. The other means is to go out and strategically and purchase controlling interests in commodity based companies all over the Globe. Russia has slowly been doing this; one example is they very cunningly purchased controlling interest in Still Water mining at an incredibly low price. They paid a measly 7.50 per share and thus assumed full control of North America’s largest Palladium producer. If the new commodities exchange goes into effect Russia will effectively deal the dollar a death blow and we could very well enter into the first leg of a hyper inflationary move. Emboldened by Russia’s move nations such as Venezuela and Iran will soon follow suite and further erode the value of the dollar. In the precious metals sector the biggest benefactors are going to be Gold and Silver.

Even though in our most recent article we stated that if Gold is unable to stay above its main trend line it could test its recent lows again; the geopolitical situation is such that everyone should at least have a portion of their assets in Gold and Silver bullion.

By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor

GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

http://news.goldseek.com/Inter…Forecaster/1166636202.php

It looks like the Chinese took Henry Paulson’s advice and are thrashing silver. Mining shares held up reasonably well last week, and gold and silver ETF’s did well. Barclay’s IAU reported adding 0.73 tons of new gold and GLD adding 7.4 tons and SLV adding 46 tons of silver. There is no question the gold suppression cartel was at work selling off what is left of the leased gold they arranged to be sold a few weeks ago. The central bankers have to try to keep gold and silver in place as the dollar and other fiat currencies continue to fall against the only real money, which is gold. The bad part is gold is down – the good part is physical buyers will buy more cheaply.
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Gold Derivatives: Elephant in the Boardroom
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary33.html

Commodities and Islam, the start of something big

...Not all metals can support Islamic finance: gold is out because Islam treats it as a form of money, just as it was 15 centuries ago in the time of the Prophet Mohammad.
Under sharia law, money per se is not an asset that can be traded.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/new…ml&WTmodLoc=HP-C8-Funds-3

December 20 - Gold $620.50 down 70 cents - Silver $12.52 down 7 cents

The Gold Big Picture Is Clear As Can Be

"Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever." --- Mahatma Gandhi

GO GATA!

Analyzing a rigged market in the short term is brutal.

In free markets there are normal ebbs and flows in which technical analysis and understanding the fundamentals can be very useful for predictive/trading value. When it comes to gold, the only thing which really counts in the end is how much gold The Gold Cartel is going to throw at the market and how well physical demand holds up to counter their price suppression activities.

That does not mean that The Gold Cartel are the ones always doing the selling. Often it is just their price capping maneuvers and influence which gets the job done. For example, the AM Fix this morning was $623.40. Once again, that was basically it for the day. Gold held that level early once Comex commenced trading, but then it was all downhill. Once The Gold Cartel established gold was not going much higher than the AM Fix, traders and funds began to sell. However, the selling was not heavy. When gold failed to break down further, locals were forced to cover and the net loss on the day was minimal

There is always a motive for The Gold Cartel doing what they do. That motive can change from time to time. At times it is clear why they are in there, and at others it requires a guess. Two potential reasons they are sitting on gold, IMO:

*The gang on Planet Wall Street are salivating over the bonuses this year and don’t intend to have anything stand in their way. Gold is viewed as a barometer of the financial well being in the US. Thus, gold must be held in check until next year.

*President Bush finally admitted, under the most pressure imaginable, that the Iraq War is not going well ... stating we are not winning. Talk about extended denial! Anyway, now that he is fumbling around in public, and trying to figure out how to counter the US generals who are publicly saying not to put more troops in Baghdad, the gold barometer must be held at bay.

The PM Fix was a long one, coming in at $619.25.

The tedium in the gold market can be seen in its chart action. In essence most of the trading the past many months has been between $618 and $640, so we are at the lower end of the trading range (in which most of the gold trading has occurred).

Feb gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/27

While figuring gold out short term has not been easy, the bigger picture is clear as can be. Demand is going up, in good part due to the wealth effect in India and China, and mine supply will continue to trend down …Peru follows South Africa, and I believe Australia, in this mine supply regard.

COMMODITIES:

"I have decided to give an important message before I write the weekly prediction for each commodity: This week will be very negative for almost all commodities and I therefore recommend that you get all position from commodities like metals, grains, energy and soft.
Don’t add or buy any contract in commodities during the next.... Book profit".

Here is small part from this week letter:

We are approaching the holiday season from this Friday, and volumes will substantially reduce till the first week of January. My advice is that please don’t trade aggressively or with a big number of contracts, as history shows that weak traders always lose money in false trends during the month of December.

My advice is that one should take a holiday and spend time with family. I intend to do the same from Friday till the fourth of January 2007.

Last week metals remain weak, oil traded in an uncertain direction, while currencies remained volatile and the market took a rest. Cotton, coffee and lumber traded very quietly and in addition, sugar went down and orange juice remained up.

Indeed, planetary movements guided us quite well and we must give thanks for their guidance.

The story of the dollar’s weakness has remained in the minds of every trader, as well as advisors and newsletter writers. They are all trying to analyze how low the dollar can hit and why it is going down. There is an attempt to discern whether it will go up or if indeed it will stay down, with everyone giving various reasons. Well, I am a predictor of the market as well and I give my views like all other people, including chartists, economists, analysts, etc. Like everyone else, I have great faith in my study and looking back, my opinion is that the longer term views and indications of planetary movements have been amazingly accurate.

Commodities Bull Market and the CRB index went towards highs while the dollar went towards lows. The dollar going down and the CRB index going up was a clear sign that trillions of dollars moved in and out based on the old fundamentals. Many are asking how low the dollar can go from here, and my answer is “Not Much More!” However, it is necessary to say that anything is possible until the first week of January. Even if the dollar rises, the commodities bull market will remain hot for a few more years since planetary movements are in support.

I shall write in some more detail concerning each market in early January 2007.

GOLD

The trend will be unconvincing even if gold attempts to go up on Monday and Tuesday, for Venus will be opposed to it. This may result in a sharp weakness in gold prices from Wednesday. Overall, the long-term cycle of gold is that it is trading in a very positive time frame and so we will buy it. However, we may have to wait for a some more time.

This week’s trading range for gold will be $628.80 to $615.80. Gold shouldn’t break the $615.80 level, otherwise it can fall more than two percent.

SILVER

During this week silver prices will remain weaker than gold, therefore avoid taking any new position in silver. We are in a long-term bull market of silver but the short-term trend occurred last week on Monday and Tuesday occurred exactly as predicted. That confirms that for the next few weeks silver should remain weak, as major planetary movements are not very supportive.

This week’s trading range for silver will be 12.82 to 12.38. If the prices break down side then prices could move further in that direction for around 3%.

PLATINUM/COPPER/PALLADIUM

All these metals are in the negative phase and during this week they could fall around 3%, which is a lot in the commodity market. No buying is therefore recommended.

STOCK MARKET

This week I recommend buying the DOW Jones and the S&P on Monday before closing, as from Tuesday the American market could go higher for the entire week. Do not short the American markets and if you want to hedge your positions, buy the American Market and sell the European Market. Expect the DOW Jones to move up around 200 points and around 15 points for the S&P.

COFFEE

Side way trend predicted with trading range of $130 to $119.

COTTON

BUYING RECOMMENDED.

GRAINS

I recommended selling grains except Wheat.

CURRENCIES

My advise was buying dollar and selling all major currencies.

Relative Performance

Paul Van Eeden
Dec 19, 2006

During the past two weeks the US dollar rebounded on foreign exchange markets and as a consequence the US dollar gold price fell. The dollar appreciated 2% against the average of the euro, pound, yen and Swiss franc while gold fell 4.7%. This is nothing but the natural volatility that we should expect from public markets as investors try to be forward-looking and react to new data. While traders try to anticipate volatility and profit from it, I try to ignore it and keep my eye on the bigger picture.

I believe that the US dollar gold price will exceed $1,000 an ounce in the next few years, and so my only interest in the short term gold price is the possibility of a sharp decline in sympathy with base metals -- a superb buying opportunity if it occurred, and fortunately easy to identify. In the meantime, declines in the gold price, like the past week?s, are easy to ignore.

Gold?s rise to $1,000 will be on the back of a falling US dollar and I expect the dollar to fall as the US economy falters. But that is, apparently, not what Wall Street or Federal Reserve Bank expect to happen.

According to an article in the Wall Street Journal last week, the US central bank and much of Wall Street are now betting that declines in real estate and the auto industry will prove to be isolated events that will not impact the economy beyond those respective industries. Apparently they believe (hope?) that home builders and auto makers are curbing production to trim excess inventories as a temporary response to a decline in the unsustainable demand of the past few years. They do not believe that there are broader forces tipping the entire economy into recession. I do not share that optimism, and you can find my reasoning in previous commentaries on my website at

http://www.paulvaneeden.com/pebble.asp?relid=34.

Perhaps Wall Street is just being optimistic, but there is another explanation for the soaring stock prices that we have seen lately, and it has to do with the fact that the majority of money being invested today is invested through mutual funds and professional fund managers.

The measure of a mutual fund manager?s success is how well he fares relative to the competition (other money managers) and the market as a whole. He is therefore most concerned with relative performance. It does not matter if he loses 20% in one year as long as other money managers lost more and the market segment that he invests in declined on average by at least that much. It also does not matter if he only makes 3% gains, as long as he is outperforming his peers and does at least as well as the market on average.

The one thing he cannot afford to do, is to under-perform either the market or his peers, for then he could lose his lucrative job.

Because performance is usually measured on a quarterly or annual basis, or both, the professional money manager has to concern himself with short-term performance. He cannot make longer term, contrarian investments that could pay off extremely well because he might get fired before his investments mature. Fund managers therefore often try to gauge the impact of current events on markets with a short-term (one month to one year) time horizon.

With the US economy slowing it is becoming more and more difficult to see how the Fed is going to justify raising interest rates in the near future. If economic activity slows sufficiently, the Fed may even cut rates, and lower interest rates are usually good for stocks. That is why professional money managers are pouring money into the stock market and why the stock market is in record high territory.

Of course, if you look at the bigger picture, it would make sense to do exactly the opposite. If the US economy is slowing down then it will ultimately start impacting corporate profits and stock prices. And if my thesis about the dollar falling while US interest rates rise is correct, we could have a really negative environment for stocks (see: ?The Big Picture? http://www.paulvaneeden.com/pebble.asp?relid=543). But mutual fund managers cannot easily make that bet, because it requires them to act contrary to their peers and therefore represents great personal risk to them.

On the other hand, when you invest your own money, like I do, then relative performance becomes entirely irrelevant and the only thing that matters is absolute returns. My own investment strategy is therefore often at odds with the majority of other investors and investment trends. It bothers me about as much as short term volatility in the gold price. I am only interested in positioning my investments where I perceive the best upside potential for the least amount of risk.

Happy Holidays,

Paul Van Eeden
Dec 19, 2006

Feng shui investors brace for year of fire on water

Thursday December 21, 1:34 am ET

By James Pomfret and Ian Chua

HONG KONG (Reuters)

Forget fund flows and profit predictions,
2007 is about "fire sitting on water."
Buy oil, avoid metals, and don't get your fingers burned.

"Asia is comparatively stable, the bad energy is in the North next year, so therefore America and those (Western) countries will more easily have natural disasters and other problems."

He also believes a "sick" energy might arise.

"Something we have to be careful of is sickness and health problems. Epidemics could come. We have to worry about avian flu, that kind of thing."

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/061221/markets_fengshui.html?.v=1

Latest rumored USD mini crisis (Man drohte den Chinesen)

Last week, there were meetings between Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chair Bernanke, and other 'A' team US trade and banking representatives with China. This meeting resulted in a number of internet rumors and some verifiable comments that China is not giving in to US demands for a revalued Yuan/RMB. That is causing the US congress to get very mad, there are trade sanctions coming in 07.
The Chinese evidently threatened to dump the USD - they have about a $trillion. Then a very interesting development - the Mid East oil nations stated they will be severely harmed by a collapsing USD if China dumps it.

From what I have heard, when the Chinese floated their idea (threatened) to go ahead and actually dump the USD this last week, first the EU told them they would not sell them enough Euros.
Then, the Mid East Oil nations said they will not sell China oil if they dump the USD. China, however is not the type of nation to like being dictated to. They won't let the US dictate to them with trade sanction threats, and they won't take any EU interference in this situation well either, nor will they take Arab oil hostility well either. Also, the moderate ($$) Arabs are concerned that a paralyzed US would leave them wide open to a hostile domineering Iran.

They threatened to embargo oil to China should they dump the USD.
All of this shows how high the stakes are going into 07 for the USD - and how serious this USD situation is now.
I think we can say, the USD situation is now at a crisis stage....more

However, if the USD were to eventually completely collapse, many USD accounts will be frozen and there will be foreign exchange controls. Meaning you will be forced to ride whatever the outcome of the USD becomes. If the situation got really bad, I believe many mines will be nationalized world wide - that is already happening anyway. A gold stock is not as safe as a gold coin. Of course, these can be confiscated too, and they have been in the US once already in the Great Depression when US gold coin was recalled by the US government so they could run big deficits....more

USD - 07 a final year?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/laird/laird122106.html