Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

HUI Index Set to Advance to 700 - 900...

By: Clive Maund

http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1171209660.php

@GB....auch beim HUI erscheint irgendwann die tripple 6.

Now we come to the main point of this article which is to bring to readers’ attention the magnitude of the potential upside in Precious Metals stocks. To do this we will use a 7-year log chart for the HUI index, which encompasses the entire bull market to date. The initial uptrend, shown by the pale blue line, was too steep to be sustainable, and the index thus broke this line in 2004 and went into a rectangular consolidation pattern, before a more sustainable uptrend resumed. The long-term uptrend drawn on this chart immediately makes 2 things clear. Firstly, if this trend channel is operative, and the higher low last month, coupled with the gold fanline breakout and the bearish looking dollar chart strongly suggest that it is, then we are close to an optimum buying area with the index still being relatively close to the lower boundary of the uptrend channel. The other point is that the upside is enormous - if the index embarks on a major uptrend that results in it making contact with the upper boundary of the channel again, then we are looking at it rising to the 700 - 900 area, perhaps higher, depending on when it meets it.

Sound outrageous? - if you had told people at the end of 2000 that this index would rise by over 600% in the following 3 years, they would have sent for the men in white coats. In the light of this the potential gains mentioned here sound rather conservative. On the downside, a general sell signal for Precious Metals stocks would be generated not by a break below the channel line, but by a break below the support level at and above 270.

In recent weeks on http://www.clivemaund.com we have reviewed the large gold and silver stocks traded on US markets, and shortly we will be looking at a range of the best trampled down junior stocks. Most junior stocks have suffered terrible damage during the corrective phase in force from May last year, that is now over, and many of their charts look like Berlin in 1945.

There are amazing bargains to be had, with the cream of the juniors showing strong accumulation patterns as Smart Money has been mopping them up like there’s no tomorrow. Shouldn’t be long now…

Dear Members,

I would like to start this week’s newsletter by saying that nature plays a vital role in the commodities market. If you have read my books, then you would have noticed that I always start with nature and climate predictions because things in the world can easily turn chaotic if nature is unsupportive. There is no human being who has power to control nature; neither politicians, scientists, nor the military. In the first newsletter for this year, I mentioned that there are indications of some natural disasters in 2007, and I would like to reveal them in detail. But before I do that, I would like to mention some predictions I highlighted in my last four books.

· The first one was in regard to a heat wave in Europe.

· In the section on Thailand in the 2004 book Page 66, I said that "bad news is indicated in the weather, where a natural disaster involving water will disrupt people’s life". The Tsunami came, and though I didn’t specifically name it, I said that water would bring a severe disaster in Thailand and Indonesia.

· On page 19, I said that "a hurricane will hit the USA in the east coast area around August. The hurricane will result in heavy damage and the people in the affected area should therefore brace themselves". Katrina came and resulted in heavy destruction.

Many other predictions about natural disasters have been fulfilled in the last twenty years but the current time is the worst. We might be approaching a very turbulent period and as I mentioned in the previous book, I had a horrifying glance of the black side of nature. Nature was turning onto the negative side due to the movement of Saturn, and I am afraid that these predictions could befall the world in the next twenty-four months.

Short-Term:

Cold in North America could be so bad that everything will freeze, and my prayer is that the supply of electricity and gas are not disrupted during this period. Indeed, the next 96 hours could be the worst for the northern parts of USA, CANADA and EUROPE. The most affected areas will be the North-Western and North-Eastern parts of the world. The currencies situation in China, Russia and other places where the cold season is high could become very serious, so one should take necessary steps if living in those regions. Traveling and communications could be affected and we must therefore pray that the period concludes without too much damage.

Once more, water will have a disruptive role for millions of people as well as animals. I see severe freezing where many seas and lakes in the northern hemisphere will become frozen. My appeal is to concerned governments and authorities to be vigilant and heed warnings by weather specialists and if necessary evacuate populations residing in the worst areas.

Medium Term:

There will be an unexpected and untimely storm season, with hurricanes pounding the eastern coast of the USA. Strangely, some Asian countries will also experience severe storms and many lives lost as a result.

Most of the natural disasters will occur as a combination of water and air. My intention is not to scare anybody, as it is my job to write about what I foresee, which is what I have been doing for more than 20 years. This has been a difficult journey for me in today’s modern world since the subject has faced a lot of skepticism, but courage, belief and accuracy have given me a stand.

I shall give more updates after the 96 hours are over, but will continue closely monitoring the next four months, as it is a very unhealthy period as far as natural calamities are concerned.

Here is a portion on nature from my last book, the ‘2004 World & Financial Prophecies’:

"When nature is happy, then we are safe; but when nature becomes unhappy, then the hostilities are unleashed. Not even the vast government resources, weapons, technology and money or tireless efforts of the authorities can save lives or protect us from the wrath of nature. This is why I always advice people to pray everyday to nature because nature is so generous and provides everything freely. For instance, we partake of vital necessities of survival like water and air without paying anything. Even the very land that we live on is free of charge: we are the one who divide and sell it. The sun is source of light and also shines upon us with no compensation required from us. I hope you understand what I am trying to say. Nothing is bigger then nature; we should give something back to nature in gratitude and appreciation of it abundant generosity. For instance we can plant more trees and unsure better management of our environment without causing any pollution to air and water. We should strive to prevent the destruction of forests, land degradation and the thinning of the ozone layer with CFC’s, consequently causing weather changes that bring about disastrous weather and inconsistent seasonal patterns.

I remember years back when I was in a small Indian town where no rain had fallen the rainy season had already started. I saw a group of people get together and start praying to lord Indra, the god of rain. These people danced and chanted and believe it or not, there was rain after a few hours. You may say that it was a coincidence but whatever your position, the fact is that there was the answer to the prayer and it rained. That day, I realized that everything is a god in itself. We can not live without water, air and light. Our bodies are formed from and dependent on nature for survival. Nature is within us and we are part of nature and alive because of nature. (Pg 17 "2004 World & Financial Prophecies)

Let’s talk about the world financial market because commodities are very closely related to nature. They are a part of nature since they come from nature. Changing weather patterns this year including heavy rain, freeze and heat wave could destroy crops and affect oil supplies and sea transport, and this could put pressure on the supply of some necessary commodities.

I also see a severe heat wave this year, therefore be prepared. I am giving these indications using a system I have followed for the last 30 years of planetary movement, and which gave me over 90 percent accuracy. Indications are that there surely will be natural disasters in the coming days and we must therefore pray and hope for the best.

Now here is this week’s newsletter:

Predictions for 12 to 16 February

Before I start the predictions for major commodities, I would like to alert you that this week will be very volatile. My indications might not be very accurate because this is not a great period as far as planetary combinations are concerned, therefore trade carefully. As a matter of fact I would be very happy if you only traded with a very small amount.

GOLD

This week the trend of gold will remain positive for the first four days. Short-term traders can therefore buy the position and hold until Thursday, while medium term and long-term traders should hold their positions.

Last week when the dollar was moving up, gold fearlessly walked with the dollar, which is one of the best indications that gold has given in the last seven months. This is what I was waiting for, but I also don’t like the new friendship of gold and oil, and would like to see gold moving up when oil moves down. That day will be the happiest day for gold investors because then, no power can stop gold from reaching $1000.

On Monday gold may trade weakly and it will be a great buying opportunity on weakness during the last hour of New York trading……

SILVER

Compared to gold, silver is going to remain quiet but it will still follow gold. On Monday during weakness, one must buy silver and hold…

COPPER

This week copper will be supported by gold and silver prices and could reach $263 on the higher side. I do not recommend any selling at this level. Furthermore, one can take a small position in buying, though as you all know my medium and long-term outlook is quite negative. Please therefore trade with a stop loss.

PLATINUM/PALLADIUM

Both commodities will trade sideways and I neither recommend buying nor selling in these metals as my long-term views are not optimistic.

STOCK MARKET

A great era of bull market for the USA market is on the way after a few months. Before that however, a sharp correction in the global equity market could shake up the investor community. It should however not surprise us, as for the last four weeks I have been talking of a severe drop in all major indexes coming either on or around 12 and 14 of February. Unfortunately both dates fall in this week and I therefore don’t recommend holding a big position in hot rising stocks especially financial, retailers and consumer companies stocks. On the other hand, related mining commodities and pharmaceutical stocks will perform well.

As I mentioned for the longer term, the DOW will reach 17,000 in the next one year and hence the sharp correction will be good news for people waiting to buy. Once this week’s correction starts as I see, do not hurry to buy anything because the corrections could be around 18 percent.

Wait and watch the situation on Monday and Tuesday, and start selling from Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. If you see the markets getting weak, then add the short position continuously.

Those who don’t want to take much risk can build a hedge by shorting hot rising Asian markets as well as the European markets and buy the USA market because compared to the USA market the others will decline much more percentage-wise.

TREASURY BONDS

Last week bond prices went down and I expect the weak trend to continue. Therefore hold your short positions.

COFFEE

We recommended selling coffee at 130 and since then it has been trading down because Mercury is not in support. However, buying time is soon coming and I will advise you accordingly.

If coffee prices reach $112.80, then one can take a small buying position

COTTON

Cotton prices will trade sideways and I am therefore not recommending any new trade in cotton. There is no need to trade when something is sideways as there are many hot areas in which one can trade.

LUMBER/SUGAR/ORANGE JUICE

These commodities will trade sideways. Last week we recommended taking a small position in sugar, but you should get out from this buying position by Friday. Do not hold any position in the above mentioned commodities. Orange juice will trade with much volatility, therefore avoid any new position this week.

GRAINS

I see a correction in grain prices from Wednesday, so do not hold any long position. This correction could persist for two weeks, after which there will be a buying opportunity. Grains will trade with a lot of volatility on Monday and Tuesday, and any sharp rise or fall should therefore be taken as a buying or selling opportunity. As mentioned above, grain prices will finally come down on Wednesday.

One can look to buy wheat during the weakness.

OIL

Weather related news will dominate the oil market, but even the worst cold or bad weather related news will not help oil prices much. I see a correction in oil prices, therefore don’t hold or take any new position after Tuesday.

Natural gas will rise during this week. One can take a short-term trade in natural gas, but get out if prices move up more than seven percent.

RB Gas and heating oil will follow crude oil, and so we may see natural gas trading differently from oil during this week.

My daily update will guide you on oil predictions because I will be following the weather conditions very closely.

CURRENCY

Last week the dollar showed a very strong sign and gained sharply against the British pound as well as other currencies. This week I see a continuation of the rising trend except Monday when it could trade with huge volatility. If all currencies rise sharply on Monday, then book profit because during the day they may regain. Build a new position again on Tuesday.

I have been stating that the dollar won’t trade below $84 and so far it has been proven right. I am certain that in it won’t trade below $84 in 2007, and it is definitely great news for the dollar index.

During this week, the British pound and Australian dollar will continually remain weak. There will be a sharp rise in the Japanese Yen and the Canadian dollar on Tuesday as well as Wednesday. During these two days, the Euro and Swiss Frank will decline.

This week - Hold the buying position in the dollar index and hold the selling position in the British pound and Australian dollar.

I will try to send you a daily update if I feel it is necessary.

Next week I shall focus more on weather related predictions and write a new chapter on inflation. I promised to write about the Euro because I see some disagreement or dispute coming up among European nations, and this could give rise to uncertainty for the Euro. This week I am unable to write more concerning it, as at this stage I am focusing more on nature related predictions.

You could once again read the first week’s newsletter in regard to the 2007 trend:

http://www.mahendraprophecy.co…h.asp?Pyear=0&page=6#year

While I try to predict the trend as accurately as possible, it is not guaranteed that I will be 100% accurate: I am an ordinary human being like you but trying to gradually open the door to the future with the help of nature and the planets. I may never be able to reach the final stage of study, but I am sure that I will be able to reveal some hidden parts of nature.

Thanks & God Bless

Sharma Mahendra

I think the recent underperformance of the Gold shares versus the Gold price is signaling one last pull back in the Gold sector, which I am expecting to be the last call before we embark on the next significant rally.

OUTLOOK

There are three potential short term scenarios as I see it over the coming weeks and months:

Scenario 1:

The Gold price continues to rally and we get an unusual situation where the Gold price leads the Gold shares and the XAU breaks the intermediate term resistance trend line at about the 140 -145 mark to embark on a new significant rally. Given the past I see this scenario as unlikely.

Scenario 2:

The Gold price continues to run into resistance at around the US$650 - US$660 mark and embarks on another pullback which will initially see the precious metals shares sell off sharply, but then steady very quickly to a point where they will outperform the Gold price (Value for money will start to prevail). This will signal the beginning of a new significant rally. I have two downside targets for the XAU including the 125-127 mark and in a worse case scenario 115. If this consolidation pattern follows in a similar vein to the previous ones (2002/03 and 2004/05), I would be leaning towards this scenario 2 outlook.

Scenario 3:

The precious metals market gets caught up in a broad commodity sell off and/or a correction in the stock market, resulting in the XAU falling all the way down to the long term support line at around 95. I see this scenario as unlikely at the present time.

Intermediate Term Outlook

Over the intermediate term my next target for the XAU is around 230 towards the latter half of 2007 and early 2008 depending on how long it takes this consolidation to run its course.

more...

http://www.321gold.com/editori…nsen/schwensen021307.html

ELLIOTT WAVE GOLD UPDATE XI

Alf Field

Data Updated to 9 February 2007.

The near term target price for gold from the Teacup and Saucer base is approximately $760, a level that would accord well with a possible peak for the Elliott wave 3 of wave I, the wave that is presently underway. In Update X it was explained that the likely peak of wave I would be $870, from which point a 16% correction should occur. The expectation was that there would be 2 corrections of approximately 8% on the way from the $560 low to the anticipated $870 peak. The size of these corrections is estimated from the rhythms found in major wave ONE, which lasted from the $253 low in 2001 to the $725 peak in May 2006.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/field021107.html

The Dollar-Gold Relationship

We suspect that gold's best gains during the current secular bull market will ultimately come in response to the same sorts of fears that led to the dramatic 1978-1980 price surge. In any case, the point we really wanted to make is that gold never actually de-couples from the currency market because the investment demand for gold -- the only thing that really matters as far as gold's intermediate- and long-term price trends are concerned -- is inexorably linked to what's happening to the official currencies. Most of the time gold responds to trends in the dollar's foreign exchange value, but there are also times when it responds to changes in the general level of confidence in paper money regardless of whether the US$ happens to be a relatively weak or a relatively strong currency

http://news.goldseek.com/SpeculativeInvestor/1171382460.php

Komisch, war noch nie da, CNBC zeigt einen Goldpreis von 671USD und bei Kitco steht er 665.70 USD

Irgendwas ist da faul..... dreht da einer am Rad, so einen grassen Unterschied sah ich in 15 Jahren nicht.

Natuerlich sagt man kein Wort ueber Gold auf dem Sender.

Aber wehe es faellt.....

Bloomberg TV zeigt 666.50 USD