Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Zitat

Original von auratico

Das bleibt eben die Frage. Mit einem abgesenkten Diskontsatz sollen fürs erste die verzweifelten Banken entlastet werden. Wieder ein Trick mehr, die wesentlicheren Leitzinsen dagegen einfach bei 5,25% zu belassen.

Natürlich geschieht das Erwartete: die Aktienkurse ziehen an und das Gold läuft brav mit. Wenn sie jetzt - was ich nicht glaube - auch noch das Tagesgeld verbilligen (vermutlich erst im Herbst) würden, geben sie den Dollar wieder zum Abschuß frei und das Spielchen inklusive Carry Trade könnte von neuem beginnen. Das Ganze ist schon eine wilde Finanz-Seifenoper, so viel Phantasie hat ein einfaches Gemüt wie ich gar nicht.

Jetzt kann man mal gespannt sein, wie weit sich die Minen - im Gleichzug mit den Standardaktien - erholen können, denn die Minen sind nun seit langem schon nur noch JoJo-ähnliche Manöviermasse, bis es hoffentlich wieder einmal deutlich heißen kann: „Bäumchen rüttel dich und schüttel dich, wirf Gold und Silber über mich!“

grüsse

auratico

Alles anzeigen

Genauso ist es, ein Tropfen auf den heissen Stein war das heute fuer eine ""Bullshit Rally"" auf ihren Markt den sie mit Cash Injections nicht halten konnten die letzten Tage. Jim Cramer ist der Hero, Ben hoerte nun auf ihn.
Auf lange Zeit gesehen gehen die Probleme vom PPT nicht weg.
Die wachsen weiter waerend man Hurrah beim DJ schreit und kommen spaeter viel heftiger zurueck.
Die wollen in erster Linie Zeit gewinnen bis zur Wahl und lassen die Sau spaeter raus. Bis es jeden klar ist das sie fertig sind machen die ihre show weiter wie gehabt und alle sind happy auf Planet Wallstreet.

Kauft Bank Aktien wie Warren Buffet und geht mit guten Beispiel vorraus.

How about Goldman Sachs ?

Gruss

XEX

Politik, ich halte mich soweit es geht raus.

Sicher ist nicht ob sie es bis zur Wahl schaffen, der Suendenbock ist dann Bush und die Republikaner sowie Ben und Alan.

It was not me !!

Promises and lies and the next Party in Holiwood.

Und die Demo's fahren die Karre dann noch tiefer in den Dreck, das kennt ihr ja.

Bis der naechste kommt und sagt it was not me but I make it better.

Wenn es nach mir geht sollte in USA aufgeraeumt werden so einen Saustall hat der Congress fabriziert.

Ob Ron Paul den sie nicht ranlassen aufraeumt weiss ich nicht.

Symphatisch ist er mir...... der lebt und handelt im Rahmen vom Grundgesetz was die andern nie gemacht haben.

Die haben die in den Schredder gehaut und darum ist so ein Chaos das noch groesser wird als wir jetzt sehen.

Das Emperium bricht zusammen mit ihrer eigenen Dekadenz und Arroganz mit dem Glauben man kann ewig drucken und Krieg fuehren kann mit einer Druckmaschine ???

Well, well...... and so on.

Mindgames, aber wie heisst es so schoen, the show must go on !

Jetzt verdrehen sie wieder ihren ""Goldilock's"" Stock.

Der Herbst wird sicher interessant mit einigen Farben im Depot.

Wie die auf einmal den Markt drehen wie sie es brauchen erstaunt mich immer wieder.

Die sind nach wie vor voll dabei den POG unten zu halten und deren Aktien und pushen gleichzeitig den Dow....Bow Wow !

Diese Nachrichten sind Peanuts und jucken wenige.
Was fehlt sind schlechte Nachrichten von Freddie and Fanni.
Dann Bilanzen von Goldman, Citi, JPM, und Morgan, die sehen wir auch noch.

Aber die kommen erst spaeter.....

Die Venus hat uns Goldbugs eine Woche eingeheizt mit ihrer Retro.

Am 8. August zieht sie aus....... ;)...wenn die da ist gibt es immer diese drastischen Schwankungen besonders bei den Finanzen.

Die bringt einige zum tanzen.....

Siehst so durcheinander bin ich schon, klar es ist September, also lege dich wieder hin.
Grrrrr...das PPT hat mich um einen Monat zurueckgeschmissen.

Ich glaube auch es kommt wieder so.....

It's time for Fed Chairman Bernanke to come to the rescue

Assuming a déjà vu, where Bernanke cuts the Fed Funds rate by only 50 basis points (soon), it seems logical the greenback might immediately decline by 7.5% (falling to about 76), and consequently the XAU theoretically could rise by 43% (rising to about 180), while gold might increase 8.3% (to about $700). Estimates are calculated on a 50 bp cut, proportional to the 60 bp cut in 1987.

Accordingly, HUI projects to about 420 if the above scenario plays out….

IF BERNANKE STEPS UP TO THE PLATE. AND CUTS FED FUNDS BY 50 BASIS POINTS SOON.

Die Charts zeigen ein Zeitfester von zwei Monat, der Herbst wird interessant werden.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/vronsky081607.html

.....In spite of the perception created by many of the headlines, the U. S. economy continues to expand, albeit slower than most investors would like. Most importantly, the rest of the world continues to grow at a fast pace, making the U. S. economy less important over time in the context of world economic growth.

One of the important implications is that the U. S. dollar remains under downward pressure. The steady shift of wealth away from the U. S. will continue to erode the value of the dollar. Hard assets such as gold and other metals will remain an important hedge.

Resource backed currencies such as the Canadian dollar will hold value better than the U. S. dollar.

Global demand for metals has not been impacted in any way by the fears surrounding the American subprime mortgage market. Exploration and development companies will continue to be rewarded for success. The most important implication is that panic selling of resource companies has created many outstanding buying opportunities. I expect prices to rebound fairly quickly as investors gain a better understanding of the realities of the current situation....hoffentlich !!

August 2007
Lawrence Roulston

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/roulston081607.html

Ich glaube die haben blind Kredite verteilt wenn einer nur eine Kreditkarte hatte. :D.....wie schauts da aus ???
Die meisten voll ueberzogen, die dachten das Konto fuellt sich von selber auf.....der Fed wird es schon richten...
......und jetzt schauns alle deppert aus der Waesch in ihren Heisl und haben zuviel bezahlt.
A buyers market hat begonnen und Mc Donalds,Pizza, Gas sind nun teurer geworden..
Maybe Daddy lost his job, das Ende !.....

Inflation kills.......

Long Valuation Waves 3

Just one month after the US stock markets achieved new all-time highs, today’s fear-stricken equity landscape looks radically different. Investors and speculators alike are frantically dumping everything with reckless abandon, regardless of fundamental merit. The resulting carnage is impressive to behold.

Such episodes of wanton fear, though painful, are very healthy for the markets. They are necessary from time to time. In fundamentally-weak sectors, they force leveraged speculators to rein in their leverage and reduce their risk. In fundamentally-strong sectors, they shake out the weak hands who lack the courage to ignore their emotions and lack the faith to ride secular bulls through turbulent spells.

Market chaos also opens up rare opportunities for traders to rethink their paradigms, the strategic ideas underlying their deployment of capital. When people get scared, they are much more receptive to different ideas than when they are complacent near interim highs. Thus today is a great time to revisit a little-understood yet immensely-important secular driver of the stock markets, the Long Valuation Waves.

Like the slowly undulating waves of the open oceans, the LVWs are great stock-market cycles that run about a third of a century each. They are measured by valuations, or the prices at which the stock markets are trading relative to their underlying earnings. For long-term stock investors, nothing is more important than understanding where the markets are in their current LVW. Today’s position within the LVW really governs probable returns over the coming decade.

Before we delve into the wave mechanics though, it is useful to consider why such important forces aren’t widely known. If LVWs truly have such a deep impact on the markets, then why aren’t they common knowledge? The answer is their multi-decade wavelength. When financial cycles meander at such glacial paces, they escape detection by all but dedicated students of the markets.

It is really just human nature to ignore cyclical behavior below the threshold of easy detection. While short cycles are easy to understand since we have lived through many of them, long cycles can only be perceived with a solid foundation of market history. An astronomy example illustrates this phenomenon.

The very definition of a “year” is the period of time it takes the Earth to complete a full circuit through the heavens and revolve around the sun. And since our planet’s vertical axis is tilted, varying amounts of sunlight reach us throughout the year as the relative angle of the sun hitting the ground changes.

This phenomenon leads to the seasons. Since a full seasonal cycle only takes one year and we’ve all lived through dozens of these cycles, we know exactly what to expect. We look forward to, and predict in advance, spring, summer, autumn, and winter year after year without fail. If June is hot, July is hotter, and August is steaming, none of us will extrapolate this trend into the future and predict a broiling December. We know better because we have experienced so many seasonal cycles in our lifetimes.

But imagine if we lived on an outer planet where the seasons were longer, such as Saturn if it didn’t have such a wickedly hostile environment and actually had solid ground. If we had grown up under the stunningly beautiful rings of that planet, our seasonal perceptions would be radically different. This is because Saturn, since it is so far away from the sun, takes a whopping 29 Earth years to complete one revolution around the star!

Interestingly Saturn’s axial tilt is very similar to Earth’s, so an inhabitable Saturn would also have four seasons. But with a 29-year orbit, each season would run over 7 Earth years in duration. If you were born in the beginning of spring, then you would be 21 years old by the time your first winter arrived. Imagine how difficult it would be for your parents to explain the concept of winter to you if you had never experienced it after two decades of life. You might even suspect they were senile for predicting such a strange and hostile season.

Yet they’d be proven right. Like on Earth, the Saturnian seasons would be as inevitable as clockwork. But since even the most robust human would only witness three at best over an entire lifetime, they would be much harder for an average person to perceive. Young people, or folks new to Saturn, would have no reason to expect such seasons unless they had truly studied the past and used this knowledge to frame the present.

This is why the Long Valuation Waves are not widely perceived. With a wavelength running about 34 years, an LVW takes even longer than a full revolution of Saturn. And we do not even watch for LVWs over our entire lifespans, compounding the difficulties of understanding them. If an average person starts investing at 25 and retires at 65, then he only has 40 years over which to perceive a 34-year cycle. Obviously this will not happen casually and requires intense study.

The best place to start is with a conceptual rendering of a Long Valuation Wave. They look like great sine waves echoing through stock-market history. The red line below is a stylized LVW, showing the general path over which stock-market valuations tread. The blue line shows a more realistic LVW, with valuations oscillating around their primary sine-wave trend. The horizontal axis measures years while the vertical one defines valuation multiples.

One LVW is rendered here, but stock-market history bears witness to an endless series of these waves connected end-to-end. While each wave runs about a third of a century in duration, for investors it is far more meaningful to split these waves in half. The 17 years from trough to peak coincide with the great secular bulls of history. And the second 17 years from peak to trough represent the great secular bears.

It is crucial to understand that the medium through which these waves travel is not stock prices, but stock valuations. These valuations expand during booms, peak during bubbles, start contracting when bubbles burst, and continue contracting down to troughs during busts. Investors can use LVWs to buy low in busts, hold for massive gains in booms, sell in bubbles, and preserve their gains to the next bust buying opportunity.

But in order for investors to utilize our position within the LVW cycle as a powerful strategic planning tool, understanding the “valuation” component of these waves is even more important than internalizing their “long” nature. Though valuation is probably the single-most-important concept for long-term investors to understand deeply, sadly the vast majority of investors today seldom consider it for the markets as a whole.

Ultimately stock investing, when you strip away all the glamour and emotion, is about owning a fractional share in the future earnings of publicly-traded companies. Naturally investors want to earn the highest possible returns on their capital. Over the long run, the highest returns arise from the companies with the highest consistent profits. So investors naturally gravitate to these companies over time.

Now the truly wise veteran investors are sector-agnostic. They invest in the sectors likely to see the greatest increases in profits over the longest period of time without concern about what particular businesses these high-potential sectors are involved in. The core mission of investing is to find those companies that will earn the most profits per dollar invested over the lifetime of the investment.

But buying future earnings streams through fractional ownership of companies has a price. Due to the emotional nature of the markets, companies’ stock prices are far more volatile than their underlying profits. When the markets are fearful, stock prices fall making future earnings streams cheaper to buy. When the markets get euphoric, stock prices rise making future earnings streams more expensive. Obviously investors want to buy earnings when they are too cheap and sell them when they get too expensive. Buy low sell high.

This is accomplished by monitoring valuations, which are simply the relationship between companies’ stock prices and earnings streams. The most venerable measure of valuation is the price-to-earnings ratio. P/E ratios are calculated by dividing a company’s stock price “P” by its latest annual earnings “E”. Wall Street commonly calls this number a company’s “multiple”. Valuations are expressed as P/E ratios that tell investors how many times higher stock prices are than their underlying earnings streams.

Stocks are cheap, and great long-term bargains, when their P/E ratios are low. If a stock is trading at a P/E of 7, or a multiple of “seven times earnings”, then it only costs $7 to buy each $1 of annual profits. But if a stock is trading at 28x earnings, it costs $28 in stock-price terms to buy $1 of annual profits. Obviously the first stock is a far better deal for investors. Why pay $28 for an identical $1 of earnings that you could buy for just $7? Investors want to buy cheap, so they look for sound and strong low-P/E companies to buy.

But what is cheap? And what is expensive? Thankfully market history is very clear on this. Over centuries all over the world, stock markets have had average P/E ratios running near 14x earnings. This is considered fair value, kind of like sea level, in Long Valuation Wave studies. When prevailing market valuations are under 14x for years at a time the LVW is in a trough. And when they trade over 14x for years the LVW is in a peak. This 14x fair-value line is the center around which the LVWs oscillate.

Besides being the long-term average, what makes 14x so special? It happens to be a very logical fair-value point too. The financial markets exist so savers and debtors can make deals. Savers, or investors, consume less than they earn so they build up surplus capital. Naturally the savers want to invest this capital for a return. Debtors consume more than they earn so they run capital deficits. So they come to savers to borrow capital to use to build the debtors’ businesses. While stock investing is technically not debt investing, the stock markets are still primarily a mechanism to direct capital surpluses to fill capital deficits.

Now all of these capital transactions are two-sided. Obviously the saver wants to earn as high of return as possible on his painstakingly-saved capital. But meanwhile the debtor wants to pay the lowest rate possible to use the saver’s capital. This fundamental conflict of interests is resolved by the free markets. 14x earnings happens to be the long-term happy medium between the investors with capital to invest and the companies that need this capital. Interestingly the reciprocal yield of 14x earnings is 7.1%.

If you are an investor with a capital surplus, you would probably consider offering it to a company that needs it for an expected 7% return. Similarly if you have a company that needs capital, you have to admit that 7% is not an exorbitant rate. Thus across centuries, cultures, markets, and countries 14x earnings just seems to be the most natural fair-market clearing price for balancing capital surpluses and deficits.

Since 14x earnings is the base long-term fair-market valuation, it provides a stable reference point off of which we can define cheap and expensive. Just as market history has shown 14x to be the center reference point around which the LVWs oscillate, it has defined earnings extremes too. When stocks are trading at half fair value, or 7x earnings, they are very cheap. When they are trading at twice fair value, or 28x earnings, they are very expensive. Obviously investors want to buy the former and sell the latter.

With this historical knowledge we can really define a Long Valuation Wave. It is a third-of-a-century cycle where the general stock markets start out cheap at 7x earnings. Stock prices rise faster than earnings in the 17-year secular bull that follows this LVW trough, increasing valuations. Eventually stock prices approach or exceed 28x near the LVW peak, usually a bubble, and then a 17-year secular bear sets in. In this valuation reversion, earnings rise faster than stock prices driving down valuations. Then this whole cycle begins anew like a phoenix from its ashes.

Once you understand what an LVW is conceptually, it is easy to see them meandering through the markets in long-term valuation charts. Out of the big three US stock indexes, only the Dow 30 has been around long enough to chart sequential valuation waves through history. While the Dow was born in 1896, the S&P 500 didn’t arrive until 1957 and the NASDAQ Composite until 1971. So the Dow remains the king of ultra-long-term charts.

It is rendered below in red, on a logarithmic scale. This scale helps the index’s percentage gains and losses look much more visually comparable over time. The general stock-market P/E ratio, the LVW measurement of choice, is shown in blue. A secondary valuation measure, the dividend yield, is drawn in yellow. As a valuation indicator it works opposite to P/E ratios, with high dividend yields representing cheap stocks and low ones representing expensive stocks.

./.......

Fazit

Investors really need to seek alternative investments to ride out this secular bear. Although the prospects for general stocks are dim, commodities stocks should ultimately thrive just as they have during past LVW ebbings. While it is a lot more challenging to multiply capital during a secular bear, it can certainly be done by prudent investors willing to avoid the valuation-contracting mainstream US stocks.
Adam Hamilton, CPA

August 17, 2007