Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Spielen diese ganzen großen Hiobsbotschaften eigentlich an den Börsen noch eine Rolle? Es kann ja kommen was will, die Börsen gehen immer weiter nach oben.
    Bei den vielen großen negativen Meldungen hätten die Märkte doch eigentlich schon längst den Bach runter gehen müssen.
    Also entweder sind wir hier alle ein wenig paranoid oder die Märkte werden künstlich gesteuert.
    Also wirklich, jeden Tag weitere Dominosteine am Fallen und nichts passiert an den Börsen.

    Zitat

    Original von Fundistephan82
    Spielen diese ganzen großen Hiobsbotschaften eigentlich an den Börsen noch eine Rolle? Es kann ja kommen was will, die Börsen gehen immer weiter nach oben.
    Bei den vielen großen negativen Meldungen hätten die Märkte doch eigentlich schon längst den Bach runter gehen müssen.
    Also entweder sind wir hier alle ein wenig paranoid oder die Märkte werden künstlich gesteuert.
    Also wirklich, jeden Tag weitere Dominosteine am Fallen und nichts passiert an den Börsen.


    Hallo,


    wenn man sowas liest und man keine Reaktion an den Börsen sieht, dann muss selbst jeder rational denkende Mensch langsam einsehen, dass hier etwas nicht stimmt. Man sollte sich dann die Frage stellen, ob man an manipulierten Märkten investieren soll, oder sein Geld lieber in Sicherheit bringt. Solche "manipulierten" Märkte sind nicht wirklich effizient, aber das wissen einige Leute hier im Forum schon sehr lange, nehme ich an.
    Mal sehen, wann der Mainstream endlich das PPT und die Goldmanipulationen realisiert, umsonst hat sich die Familie Rothschild ja nicht vom Goldfixing in London zurückgezogen, was man so im Netz liest, die wissen, dass diese Manipulation irgendwann auffliegen muss.


    best regards
    BAAL

    Und wenn Du meinst es geht nichts mehr, kommt von irgendwo ein Weltkrieg her.

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von BAAL ()

    Hat sich so scheint es bei unseren Investmentbankern noch nicht herumgesprochen - die europäischen Indizes liegen alle noch dick im grünen Bereich :D Bin mal gespannt wie es in 4 - 5 Stunden aussieht :rolleyes: :D Ich kann mir nicht so recht vorstellen, daß Forbes eine Ente veröffentlicht. Allerdings wundert es mich etwas, daß die Meldung nicht auf der Hauptseite auftaucht - ist doch recht versteckt. ?(

    Zitat

    Original von linar
    WALL STREET OUTLOOK down on talk large US bank filed for Chapter 11 protection
    08.21.07, 10:43 AM ET


    linar :)


    Hallo,


    ok stimmt, ist schon Schnee von gestern, allerdings würde das Meeting von Bernanke und Co am Dienstag dann einen Sinn ergeben, speziell die Aussage von Paulsen, dass er eine längere Finanzkrise erwarte.


    best regards
    BAAL

    Und wenn Du meinst es geht nichts mehr, kommt von irgendwo ein Weltkrieg her.

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von BAAL ()

    Vorsicht!. Vielleicht war es auch nur ein Gerücht, um Aktienkurse in eine gewisse Richtung zu bewegen. Kommt öfters vor.


    Schön wäre es ja, wenn einer dieser mutmaßlichen Marktmanipulateure hops gehen würde, leider aber sehr wahrscheinlich viel zu schön, um bereits jetzt wahr zu werden.


    Abwarten, was der Tag bringt.

    Ich habe vorhin einen Report gelesen das laut Fintch Ratings ca. 460 trillionen USD Deriviate sind. Ein drittel nun in low rating sektoren die von 21 % angewachsen sind. Irgendwann kommt nach den billion $ Pleiten, ein trillion USD Skandal bei einer grossen Bank , wie Deutsche Bank z.B.
    Die Lease rates bei Gold und Silber sind deshalb so hoch weil die meisten Banken es nun ungern verleihen wollen. Nur EZB/SNB verkauft.
    Die Gold in privater Hand halten die halten es auch. :]


    Schaut doch nur uns an... :D


    Wer weiss vielleicht ist August schon der Herbst...


    ....Now that cash is once again king — and the dollar has seized the throne with its twisted sidekick the yen playing court jester — we think you might do well to keep an eye on the gold price. Even with spot prices ticking sideways amid the sell-off in paper, that's still a sharp break from the strong correlation between stocks and gold bullion seen between 2003 and early '07. Plainly put, the smart money looks keen to keep hold of its bullion.


    Versus the resurgent dollar, the price of gold remains little changed right now from a week or even a month ago. Indeed, it's risen against sterling and euros — a little-reported fact that U.S. investors wanting to take advantage of this spike in the greenback may like to note.


    Regards,


    Adrian Ash


    http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=4599

    Zitat

    Original von Eldorado Die Lease rates bei Gold und Silber sind deshalb so hoch weil die meisten Banken es nun ungern verleihen wollen. [/URL]


    ...was natürlich daran liegt, dass "Goldleihe" ein Euphemismus für Goldverkauf ist! Jede Bank, die genötigt wird, Gold zu verleihen weiß, dass sie dieses Gold niemals wieder physisch sehen wird.


    Zudem weiß sie, dass sich in den beiden nicht veröffentlichten Unterzeilen ihrer Bilanzposition "Gold und Goldforderungen" wieder einmal eine Verschiebung ergeben hat, die im Krisenfall den Unterschied zwischen Leben und Sterben ausmachen kann.

    Erst wenn die letzte Bank pleite, der letzte Staat ruiniert, die letzte Währung wertlos geworden ist, werdet Ihr merken, dass man Gold nicht drucken kann.

    The sub prime debt market is huge and the pile or associated derivatives is larger (some 450 trillion), mostly in USD.
    If cash injection is required to stabilize things, it is likely that the USD (as per the charts) remains buoyant until mid to late 2009 before finally collapsing below 80 in one fowl swoop (pun intended, the USD is a dead duck, just a matter of time). The USD still is the reserve currency of the world and once the USD prints an equivalent amount of paper to reduce the global holdings of banks to 30-40% of the total paper, then it will be dumped.



    I have not sold any gold stocks in the down turn and in the future, I will be focusing on the addition of gold and silver bullion. :P


    The HUI was in a bullish pattern, but as one analyst so eloquently put (not sure of the source) "technical analysis is a wind sock, not a crystal ball" and the wind literally changed direction. This did change things in the near term but by no means did it alter the bullish outcome to follow. Bernanke at present has no choice but to print money like there is no tomorrow, otherwise face an apocalypse of the US economy. Governments always pass the buck and look to pin the tail on some other donkey. As such, future elected government officials are only setting themselves to receive the donkey's tail pinned to their heinie when it should have been pinned to someone else from a prior term.


    The sharp decline of the market created a significant chink in the armour of confidence gold bugs have been wearing as of late, but with time they can slowly be hammered out and polished to make things as before.


    For this reason expect another 4-8 months :( :rolleyes: of sideways action in the HUI. ;(



    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/petch/petch082307.html

    Agency MBS succumbs to global credit squeeze


    By Julie Haviv - Analysis


    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Tightening global credit markets have taken a toll on U.S. mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and it will take more than recent Federal Reserve measures to boost liquidity.


    While the central bank's recent move to cut the primary discount rate boosted liquidity in financial markets overall, it may be too late to help the roughly $4.25 trillion "agency" MBS market.


    http://www.reuters.com/article…239620070822?pageNumber=1

    Aufgrund einer Aussage von Norbert Walter, Gold wird noch eine längere Zeit als Währungspuffer zwischen Euro und Dollar fungieren, beobachte ich die Korrelation zwischen Gold und Euro. Auffällig ist dabei, daß sich Mitte 2005 Gold und Euro im Chart lösten. Sehr gut zu sehen bei http://www.Commdirect.de im 5 Jahres Chart. Doch seit 3 Mon. erkennt man den Versuch Gold und Euro wieder parallel laufen zu lassen. Seit 10 Tagen bis auf einen Ausrutscher fast perfekt. Die Einstellung der Charts bekomme ich leider nicht hin.
    Welche Zusammenhänge könnte es für diese Entwicklung geben?
    Welche Rolle spielt das Dreieck Dollar - Gold - Euro?


    Grüße
    Eulenspiegel

    Junior Mining Stock Report Update
    A technical review and forecast of the junior mining sector


    Aug. 22, 2007


    Junior Mining Update


    Big improvements in market psychology (plus, a look at some Aussie juniors)


    The Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) closed Tuesday's trading session at 314.10 to gain 0.46%. The XAU gold/silver index closed at just under the 133 level for a gain of 0.70% for the day.


    The XAU index closed well off its low from last week of 120 but is coming off a much deeper correction low than the broad market S&P 500. This lagging behavior isn't really surprising since gold stocks nearly always bear the brunt of a broad market sell-off. Investors are always quick to dump the gold stocks when they're desperate for cash and this is why PM stocks usually take the hardest hits at a correction low.


    But what started out as a rough-and-tumble week for equities in general and for the precious metals and PM shares in particular ended up being promising in terms of a market bottom now in formation. The selling of the past week was clearly overdone and now there is evidence that the "smart money" is returning to buy heavily the beaten down PM bargains, including some in the junior mining stock arena. We'll have a look at the most oversold silvers later in this report.


    Last week's panic selling took a lot of steam out of the gold/silver stocks but the indicators show the selling was mostly panic-related in nature. As such, we can expect the market to eventually give back what it has taken from so many fundamentally sound gold and silver equities, although this could take several weeks to accomplish. We're not far from when the seasonal trend turns bullish for the PM sector and this should provide an added push upward to the beaten down mining stocks. In view of this, and because fundamentals remain sound for the sector, any further market weakness in the form of pullbacks to test the recent correction lows would be viewed as buying opportunities.


    The white metal was particularly hit hard hit last week as hedge funds were selling heavily on Thursday to meet redemptions. Yet I view this from a contrarian angle and see the decline was overdone. Hedge fund managers can be just as inept as the average, inexperienced small investor and this appears to be one of those times. The Ishares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) which essentially tracks the silver price closed at $115 on Tuesday, a low for the year-to-date. Yes this is painful to consider but the SLV, as well as physical silver, is coming off a major oversold reading in the price oscillators. Take a look at the 5-day and 20-day price oscillators for the SLV shown below. Both lines have fallen below the green line which has always indicated a speculative buying opportunity in the past. Both the 5-day and 20-day oscillators are also at their greatest oversold readings of the year. The last time we saw readings like these was in late June/early July and it was followed eventually by a rally that took SLV from approximately $122 to almost $135, i.e., back up to the 200-day moving average.


    Once again we see that SLV has become drastically under-extended from its 200-day moving average which currently intersects the $131 level overhead. The under-extension from the key 200-day MA as well as the oversold readings in the oscillators should result in a relief rally beginning soon and taking SLV back above the $125 level and closer to the 200-day MA.


    The best news the market is offering us right now comes from the 20-day price oscillators. The XAU 20-day price oscillator has hit its lowest reading in several years and I can't remember when I've seen it lower than it is now. This shows that the market was stretched like the proverbial rubber band at the breaking point and we now have a nice oversold rally underway. After this latest rally fizzles we might get a re-test, or a partial re-test, of the recent lows but these lows are expected to hold and an interim bottoming process should be underway.


    For now the area around 125 becomes the pivotal support for the XAU index, a benchmark that stretches back to 2006 and has held up after several testing periods in the 20 months since then. Another key feature of the area around the 125 level is that this is where the 600-day moving average intersects in the daily chart. As you can see, the 600-day MA has acted as a kind of "support of last resort" ever since the precious metals bull market got underway back in 2002. The 600-day MA was temporarily violated on an intraday basis Thursday but this quickly reversed. It's not important that the price stays above the 600-day MA at all times as there can be temporary violations (as occurred briefly in 2005). A break of the 600-day MA will often scare the technical traders into selling out which may have happened during Thursday's trading session. This would be a bullish consideration assuming it happened (and there is some evidence to support it).


    The CBOE Gold Index put/call open interest ratio has hit the lowest level I've seen in recent memory. On Tuesday the ratio was 0.04 which basically means the smart money options traders have been buying calls with both hands. Open interest on put options was almost nil on Tuesday. Take a look at the chart below which shows the huge drop in the put/call ratio. A decline below the green zone of the chart is considered to be extremely bullish from an intermediate-term outlook.


    As we observed in Tuesday's report, it sometimes take the gold stock market to respond favorably to a drop in the put/call ratio but the market has always reversed higher, usually within a few weeks of such a strong reading. And the rally off the reversal is always worthwhile from a swing trading standpoint. Accumulation campaigns sometimes take time but patience always pays off in these cases.


    Another thing worth considering is that the important 15-day moving average of the put/call open interest ratio was still at a fairly high level and needed to come down before the market was ripe for a sustained rally. The 15-day MA for the put/call ratio is coming down sharply and may need to come down some more before the next take-off time in the XAU and HUI. This wouldn't be surprising since a re-test or partial re-test of the correction lows is common following such a major decline as we saw recently. The important thing to remember is that in spite of how much volatility and choppiness the market may put us through in the next couple of weeks, the put/call reading is sending a very bullish signal and tells us to take heart: better times are coming for the gold stocks!


    Turning our attention to the major PM stocks, we've looked at some promising parabolic patterns in the daily charts the past few days as more and more of them seem to keep cropping up. Well here's one in the daily chart for Hecla Mining (HL, $7.72) which looks promising. Hecla bounced off its rising 400-day moving average at its correction low two weeks ago and looks to establish support above the $6.50-$6.75 area where the 400-day MA intersects with the lower rim of the parabolic bowl pattern you see here. The short interest in HL at 8% is pretty high and should help the stock maintain support above $6.50 as it tries to round out the bowl pattern and approach the outer rim of the bowl. This is where the up-curve begins and the next rally in HL should begin, albeit it could be still a couple of weeks away so patience is still required. Hecla's earnings outlook is still positive and the forward earnings-per-share line is bullish longer-term, i.e., Hecla is still an investment quality issue...

    --Clif Droke
    clif@clifdroke.com


    einige der besten silvercompanies haben bei den heftigen Korrekturen die diesmal stattfanden in vergangenheit ca.3-4 Wochen gebraucht um die Basis zu bilden bis die Konsolidierung zu ende war, jetzt zuzukaufen halte ich daher für verfrüht, ärgere mich natürlich dass ich am Sommerschlussverkauf Teil 1 nur 2 Silberminen ergatterte :(


    Teil 2 kommt dann vielleicht am 11.9.07 :D


    cash-cash-cash, sell your house now, ich fang mal mitm Klavier an, House muss dann bei Silver <USD 10 dran glauben 8o


    shocked Man of truth:


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRngAdsJTu4

    understanding how fed deprives Americans:


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIjFe36_HQM


    burning down the house :]


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…AcVg&mode=related&search=

    Goldman Sachs expects dollar decline, interest rate cut


    Submitted by cpowell on 06:22PM ET Thursday, August 23, 2007. Section: Daily Dispatches
    By Ye Xie
    Bloomberg News Service
    Friday, August 24, 2007


    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…20601080&sid=aGU1K0tcAeQI


    NEW YORK -- The dollar may decline to a record low against the euro in the next six months because U.S. economic growth will slow, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.


    From the current level of $1.3568 per euro, the U.S. currency will weaken to $1.43 per euro in the next three to six months, Goldman Sachs said in a research note yesterday. New York-based Goldman, the world's biggest securities firm by market value, lowered its dollar forecast from a prior estimate of $1.35. The dollar set a record low of $1.3852 per euro on July 24.


    Concern about losses in investments related to mortgage securities has bolstered expectations that the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate from 5.25 percent at its Sept. 18 policy meeting. Traders are certain that the Fed will cut its key rate to at least 5 percent by Sept. 18, futures show.


    "Financial conditions are tightening at a time when clearly there's some downside risk to growth," said Jens Nordvig, a senior currency strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York. Fed rate cuts "will drag the dollar lower."


    The Fed will lower its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point to 4.5 percent by year-end, according to Goldman Sachs.


    The dollar will fall also because foreign investors will reduce purchases of higher-yielding corporate bonds, said Nordvig.


    Goldman also said the dollar will decline to 110 yen in the next three to six months, from 116 yen at present, compared with a previous forecast of 118 yen.



    Le Metropole Members,


    Bill,


    I almost fell off my chair when I checked the TOCOM
    data today. Goldman Sachs covered an absolutely
    astonishing 3,184 short contracts bringing their net
    short position to 11,358 contracts. This is another
    record low net short since I have been keeping records
    (January 2006). We have seen massive contractions in
    their net short positions before but ONLY when the gold
    price was plummeting. The ONLY time we have seen a large contraction when the POG was trading sideways was
    just before the BIG gold price move in 2006.


    A reader today asked me if this is just GS re-loading
    their ammo for another blitz on gold. I think that is
    highly unlikely because the signature is so different
    (see the chart in MIDAS commentary tomorrow). They have
    also broken below their declining trend in short position
    and the end of the chart looks like a heart rate monitor
    when the patient just died.


    This is NOT business as usual. The monetary system is
    falling apart. Once the jig is up self-preservation
    becomes more important than going down with the ship
    for a war that can't be won.


    Stay tuned !


    Cheers


    Adrian

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A