Western Areas WKN 854 633 ISIN ZAE000016549 WAR Oder Kebble´s Trojanisches Pferd

    @PL


    Na endlich spucktst du was aus und wenn es nur eine Ratte ist. :D
    Die PEM holte ich mir vor kurzen laut der Empfehlung, na hoffentlich schickst du mich nicht in den Boayrischen Wald damit. :D
    So was macht man nur mit einen Preissn, mit an Ex-Minga moacht ma des net, hoast mi ?


    Pfirty Lupo, scheens Woachenend, I schau ma den Ratzn glei an.


    Eldo

    @Dottore


    Ab und zu Gewinne mitnehmen gehört zum Spiel.
    .
    Bei EMP bin ich zwar satt im Plus, die Guten halte ich aber noch lange ...
    Mal sehen, wie es da weitergeht, wenn EMP erst mal den monatlichen 10 MIo. Scheck aus der PORGERA-Beteiligung bekommt. :]


    Heute mußten meine uralten 4239 WAR zu 4,25 € dran glauben.
    Aber ich beziehe ja aus der KE wieder neue zu ca. 2,25 € ....


    alex ...

    @GO,


    dran gedacht, die WAR jetzt zu verkaufen hatte ich auch.

    Schien mir dann aber doch zu früh.

    Außerdem gefällt mir die Tiefmine und wie man dort

    mit einem viel Größeren, Placer Dome, Schlitten fährt.


    Jedem seine Liebhaberei


    SIEGEL bespricht heute EMP auf SIEGEL-INVESTMENT = Goldhotline.

    Sein Ergebnis mit meinen Worten: nicht heiß, nicht kalt, schön lauwarm



    Gruss


    Tambok

    Tambok


    Siegel: Kursziel 0,80 AUD ... Ohne erkennbares Risiko.


    Wobei er einige Infos offenbar nicht hat !!


    Und ca. 50 % = 0,60 AUD m.E. schon sehr kurzfristig. :]
    Wo bekommt man auf ein Sparbuch ohne Risiko 50% in 1-4 Monaten ??


    WAR finde ich trotz meines Verkaufes nicht so schlecht .
    Aber ich liebe immer Aktien mit Preisen < 2-3 EURO. Da kommt man auf
    schönere Stückzahlen. :))
    Bin eben nebenbei auch noch Sammler.


    alex ...

    langer Text, aber für WAR alles interessant



    Aus Mineweb.com vom 25.11.05




    Big call on Western Areas from Joburg’s top gold analyst
    =============================================



    JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- A re-rating of gold company, Western Areas could see its price almost double from current levels, according to David Davis of Andisa Securities. He is Johannesburg’s top rated gold analyst according to a Financial Mail survey.


    “The market currently applies a significant discount to Western Areas reserves,” said Davis in a note to clients, “We believe the market will likely re-rate Western Areas’s reserves over the next 12 to 24 months, as the negative factors that have contributed to this discount are eliminated.”


    Western Areas is half-owner of one of the world’s largest remaining gold deposits, called South Deep. The other half is owned by Canadian listed, Placer Dome.


    In his calculations, Davis used an unorthodox valuation method, which values a gold miner per reserve ounce in the ground, to show just how far apart Western Areas and Randgold Resources, an African gold miner, are from the rest of the pack when using this method. Usually the discounted cash flow (DCF) method would be used.


    According to this method of valuation, and including the new shares from an imminent rights issue, the gold reserves at Western Areas are given a value of $29.7/oz, according to Davis.


    In comparison South Africa’s other gold producers including, AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields and Harmony, have a combined average market capitalisation per reserve ounce value of $106.2/oz. While the largest North American stocks attract a value of $172/oz.


    “The market is clearly significantly discounting the Western Areas South Deep JV’s reserve base,” says the note.


    Davis adds that this discount is probably due to a number of negative factors, like continued delays in the commissioning of the main shaft at South Deep, management and board structures, repeated rights offers, a nasty hedge book, relatively high costs and low yields.


    And while these factors may make for a company that should be avoided, Davis says much has changed over the past year.


    Operationally the mine should start to reach its targeted cost levels of R65,000/kg to R70,000/kg, after coming off highs of around R110,000/kg. With grades expected to improve as well.


    Board structures have changed at South Deep itself as well as at the holding company level, with Gill Marcus recently being appointed as executive chairperson, after the previous chairman, Mafika Mkwanazi left and the previous chief executive, Brett Kebble, was mysteriously murdered in September.


    The current rights offer on the table intends to raise R640 million by issuing 35.5 million new shares at R18 a share.


    “The capital raising will likely be used for an uprate of the project from 700,000oz per annum to over 900,000oz per annum by 2010,” says the note.


    Also a R369 million loan will be repaid to 39% shareholder JCI, following the rights offer, leaving R271 million in capital, according to Davis.


    Davis calculates that Western Areas’s total share of capital expenditure over the next five to six years will be about R825 million.


    And although R271 million only makes up a quarter of that, the company is also looking at restructuring its hedge book to match the new mine plan.


    “Should the restructuring of the hedge book not be fully successful, Western Areas will likely go for a further rights offer,” says the note.


    If the market does re-rate Western Areas, Davis says the market would likely set a premium equivalent to Harmony, also a predominant producer of South African gold, at around $78 per reserve ounce. but adjusted for the hedge and JCI debt. Davis says these factors account for about $20 per reserve ounce.


    “Under these circumstances, we calculate a likely market re-rating of Western Areas reserves to be in the order of $57/reserve ounce,” says the note, “Based on an exchange rate of R6.65/$, the Western Areas share price is likely to have an order of magnitude of around R56/share, which corresponds to a 100% re-rating.”


    Simon Marais, from Allan Gray, a 25% shareholder in Western Areas, told Mineweb Radio on Wednesday evening, that he also thought there was more value in Western Areas.


    “The problem with Western Areas always is you had fantastic assets, but probably management that didn’t bring the assets to their full potential, to put it mildly,” said Marais, “Hopefully this will change now – the assets are still there, you know, it’s gold under the ground, so there’s not much harm you can do to that – and the value will now be unlocked.”


    He added that the market will probably take a wait and see attitude for now. “
    But I think if they can do that (show results) in the next three to five years I think from here the stock could be good,” added Marais.


    He also said that the 50/50 JV could fall away at some point, maybe being bought out by Barrick if it is successful in its Placer Dome bid.


    “I would expect that at some point they would probably buy it out. Now, whether they’d be willing to pay an appropriate price that they’ll get it, I don’t know. But I would think it will happen in due course. It's probably cheaper to buy that than to try and find a similar deposit elsewhere in the world,” said Marais.


    George Lequime, of RBC in London, shared a similar sentiment towards the stock. “Small changes in longer-term production projections, or on the gold price or the rand, tend to move that NPV (net present value) all over the place,” said Lequime, “And if you actually sit down and you look at it on a enterprise value or a market capitalisation per-ounce basis, it's cheap ounces and we’ve got a gold price moving in the right direction.”


    Lequime says that if mining goes according to plan, Western Areas should be on track for full capacity by the middle of next year. “When you’ve got 60% of your costs in fixed costs and infrastructure, if you can get the volumes up, then it changes the cash cost quite dramatically and negates a lot of the hedges that they have in place and they’re giving away on certain amount of the ounces over the next nine years. So that’s going to be the key for the company.”


    Western Areas shares closed at R32 each on Thursday in Johannesburg

    Da kann man ins Grübel kommen.

    Heute morgen an der JSE mit 3.650 gestartet, das sind plus 8%.

    Die Jungen werden für 1.800 ausgegeben.

    Bleibt´s wie ´s ist sind das 100% Zeichnungsgewinn.


    Die Story heißt: 2 x 25 Mio Unzen in produzierender Mine.

    Da ist alles drin, und das genaue Gegenteil auch.

    Sobald der Handelstop bei JCI und Range aufgehoben ist in JHB sollten die beiden ebenfalls stark eroeffnen.
    Hoffentlich ist es bald so weit, ich verstehe immer noch nicht warum die den Handelstop noch haben.
    Auf was wird da gewartet, auf den Verbleib der RR Aktien ???

    Quelle REUTERS vom 28.11.05




    Western Areas surges on better outlook, sale talk
    =======================================


    JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Shares in South African gold miner Western Areas Ltd soared nearly 10 percent on Monday, extending a rally on optimism that new management was solving financial problems and speculation it might be sold.


    The shares jumped 9.6 percent to a peak of 37.25 rand, the highest since February 2004, adding 385 million rand to its market capitalisation.


    The shares, which have surged 63 percent since November 16, were trading 8.2 percent higher at 36.79 rand by 0920 GMT, outperforming a flat local gold mining index.


    "I think it's just people waking up to the fact that this company will be saved. Until a month or two ago, there was no potential for that to materialise," said analyst Leon Esterhuizen at Investec Securities.


    "Part of what you're seeing is very definite indication that a lot of people believe that it will be sold."


    The firm's main asset is its 50-50 joint venture with Canada's Placer Dome in South Africa's South Deep gold mine. South Deep is one of the world's deepest and richest ore bodies, but it has been troubled by long delays and high costs.


    Western Areas had financial difficulties under the leadership of controversial mining magnate Brett Kebble, who resigned shortly before he was gunned down in his car in a gangland-style shooting in late September.


    New management are going ahead with a 640 million rand rights issue to recapitalise the firm, which swung back to a profit in the quarter to September.


    CONFIDENCE IN NEW CHAIR


    Investors also got a jolt of confidence earlier this month when Gill Marcus, former deputy finance minister and former deputy central bank governor, agreed to become chairperson of the company.


    A lot of talk has swirled in the market about potential takeover activity for Western Areas following a $9.2 billion hostile bid by Barrick Gold Corp. for Placer Dome.


    Placer's stake in South Deep might be combined with that of Western Areas to make it an attractive target, analysts say.


    South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd said last month it had held sporadic talks on working together with South Deep, located next to Gold Fields' Kloof mine, but said nothing concrete had emerged.


    Still hanging over Western Areas, however, is a series of hedging deals done several years ago. It sold large amounts of gold in advance at fixed prices when the gold price was much lower.


    Analyst David Davis at Andisa Securities said in a research note last week that the market has sharply discounted the value of Western Areas huge reserves in South Deep due to the financial and management difficulties. But the company could be re-rated over the next 12-24 months as the problems are solved.


    "We believe Western Areas reserves should re-rate to around $57 per reserve ounce from $29 per reserve ounce. If it does, the Western Areas share could rise to 56 rand per share," he said in the note.


    But in another research note last week by RBC Capital Markets, analyst Georges Lequime pegged a target price of 28 rand, up from 23.50, based on the net asset value of the firm.

    Quelle MIMINGMX.com vom 30.11.05


    JCI to redeem R405m debenture
    =========================
    ===




    The listed JCI debentures, currently suspended, JSE code JCDD will


    receive the December interest payment of 6.6c per debenture and the


    debenture will be redeemed at the option of the holder on January 15


    2006 at 125c each.



    Apparently JCI has sufficient cash or access to resources to meet this


    total commitment of R405m.



    At the end of July this year the debenture were still trading at 88c each on


    the JSE. The flat return for the six months to January 2006 - for the brave


    at heart who were prepared to venture some money on this controversial


    debenture - will be 50%, or 100% on an annual basis.



    This was one of the nicest investment opportunities, simply because


    one could calculate the potential return well in advance. The annual


    interest rate at prime, payable every six months, and the redemption at


    125c on January 15 2006 was always known and part of the conditions


    of the debenture.



    The risk, of course, was always whether the oft cash strapped JCI would


    ever be able to meet the repayment condition in January.



    Over the four year lifespan of the debentures the company - largely seen


    as an executive toy of the father/son combination of Roger (chairperson)


    and the late Brett Kebble (CEO) - never missed a payment.



    Frankly JCI was the Kebble's entity. The risk attached to an investment in


    JSE was not the massive gold reserves of South Deep. It was the


    Kebbles, who in the past always met their commitments.





    But a strange twist of events changed the outcome.


    It started with the suspension of the listing of the shares and debentures


    of JCI on the JSE on July 29 2005 for not submitting financial statement


    on time. At that time, the ordinary shares were trading an all time low of


    15c but the debentures were still at a respectable price of 89c.


    Late submission of financial statement is not a serious crime but the


    very low price of 15c for the ordinary shares were screaming "cash flow problems".



    On August 30 an announcement by Investec bank confirmed the cash


    flow problems and announced a R460m cash injection into the company


    on condition that Brett relinquished the job as CEO (although he stayed


    on as a non-executive director).


    Shareholders were starting to breath a little more comfortably - but there


    was still no clarity on the option of cash redemption of the debentures in


    January. It is well know that bankers seldom save a company to the


    benefit of existing minority debenture and shareholders.


    One month later on September 30 Brett Kebble was murdered, and no


    arrest has yet been made. Investec put out a statement indicating that


    the negotiations around the re-capitalisation of JCI are continuing.



    During all these dramatic events the shares and debenture remained


    suspended. A very small and erratic over-the-counter market (OTC) was


    apparently conducted over the past few months but I was unable to trace this market.




    So it it appears if the improbable - if not impossible - is to become reality.


    Debenture holders will be offered the opportunity to request cash


    redemption or conversion into ordinary shares if they so chose.



    I have on a number of occasions recommended these debentures to


    investors with a high-risk profile. The potential return always varied


    between 30% and 50% and often translated in an annualised return of


    100%. This was first truly junk bond listed on the JSE and it was fun to


    follow its near failures - but eventual success.



    To me it was always a better instrument than having to lend money to


    your in-laws, and the possible return on the debentures gives a good


    indication of the applicable interest rate for family loans.




    Trader Vic unfortunately sold his JCI debentures long ago

    Posted to the web on: 24 January 2006


    Randgold sheds light on Kebble share riddle


    Charlotte Mathews


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Resources Editor


    PART of the year-long mystery stemming from contradictory statements issued by the late Randgold & Exploration (R&E) CEO Brett Kebble on the company’s ownership of shares in Randgold Resources was cleared up yesterday.


    Randgold Resources CE Mark Bristow said that Société Générale SA had notified it last week it had acquired, and sold into the market at $16,50 each, 4-million Randgold Resources shares. The transaction was worth $66m.


    Bristow believed these shares were the last remaining holding in Randgold Resources by R&E.


    Their sale underlined Randgold Resources’ status as a fully independent business with a broad shareholder base.


    Randgold Resources said last February its share register showed R&E owned only 5,7% or 4-million of its shares. But Brett Kebble insisted at the time R&E remained the beneficial owner of 31% or 18,4-million Randgold Resources shares, which it was entitled to get back as they formed part of financing arrangements.


    After Kebble stepped down as head of JCI & R&E in August as a condition of the JCI group’s refinancing arrangements, new management said there was a scrip-lending arrangement in place on the Randgold Resources shares, and the method of accounting would be changed, which would have a major effect on its financial results.


    Bristow said Randgold Resources’ share register showed a string of trades in the R&E shareholding, most of which occurred in 2004.


    R&E spokesman Brian Gibson said last night the company would issue a statement today on the issue.


    The shares in Randgold Resources were R&E’s main asset. Concerned R&E shareholders had called for a special meeting soon after Kebble died to discuss the whereabouts of the Randgold Resources stake, or the cash it must have received for selling them.


    But the meeting was postponed indefinitely as new R&E management said a forensic audit would first be carried out into its affairs and those of parent JCI.


    R&E and JCI’s shares are currently suspended from trade.


    R&E was also ejected from Nasdaq in September for failing to report within the exchange’s regulatory timeframe.

    South Deep
    =========


    Posted: Sun, 22 Jan 2006


    Quelle : [miningmx.com] --
    ====================



    THE possibility that Placer Dome’s 50% stake in South Deep, a large


    gold mine on the West Rand near Johannesburg, would be sold


    receded on Friday when Barrick said the mine was doing “quite well” and would be integrated.





    This was after Barrick Gold confirmed it had bought about 81% of the


    common shares of Placer dome, or 78% on a fully diluted basis.


    Barrick Gold chief operating officer, Peter Kniver, who used to work at


    Anglo Platinum, a South African firm, was looking forward to integrating


    South Deep, said Vince Borg, spokesman for Barrick.



    Barrick's view on South Deep was that it was doing "quite well" and that it


    was on a path of improvement, Borg said in a report published by I-Net Bridge, a newswire service.




    With Barrick having taken a controlling stake in Placer Dome and set to


    buy out the group, Barrick would now take a detailed look at the 50%


    stake held in the South Deep mine, Vince said in the I-Net Bridge report.



    The South Deep gold mine would be the deepest mine within the Barrick group, Borg confirmed.

    Quelle: BUSINESS DAY vom 08.02.06
    =============================


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    Improvement at South Deep mine pleases Barrick
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CAPE TOWN — Barrick Gold was pleased with the improved performance of the South Deep mine, in which it is a 50% shareholder, and it planned to familiarise itself with the mine’s people and potential, Alex Davidson, Barrick’s vice- president for exploration and corporate development, said yesterday.


    He was addressing delegates to the Investing in African Mining conference shortly after Barrick Gold managed to secure control of US miner Placer Dome.


    By this week Barrick had acquired 94% of Placer Dome’s shares.


    In SA Placer Dome has a joint venture with Western Areas on the South Deep gold mine, which is one of the biggest and deepest gold ore bodies in the world, and in the Sedibelo platinum project in the Eastern Bushveld.


    Davidson said Barrick Gold had never operated in SA before, although it had other projects in Africa and a number of its key staff had experience in SA.


    It was committed to its two South African projects, although it would take time to become fully informed.


    Earlier this week Western Areas downgraded its estimate of mineral reserves at South Deep to 29,3-million ounces from a previous estimate of 55-million ounces.


    It emphasised that the downgrade would affect only the second phase of development, where production would not begin for another 20 years.


    The mine, which formed part of the assets of Brett Kebble’s JCI, has been plagued by lengthy delays and escalating capital costs in the past few years.


    Davidson said that he was not concerned about the downgrade in South Deep’s proven resource estimates as it would have no effect on plans to boost output at the mine in coming years.



    “It really confirms the reserve that is accessible above infrastructure and increases that, so we look at it as a positive development,” he said.


    Davidson said it was natural that Barrick would take up an offer by Gold Fields to help on South Deep.


    Barrick expected to hold talks with Gold Fields on possible co-operation on adjacent mines, he said.


    Gold Fields’ Kloof mine was adjacent to South Deep. Gold Fields said late last year, before Barrick acquired its stake, that it had held sporadic talks on working with South Deep, but nothing concrete had emerged.



    He told the conference Barrick was also aggressively pursuing the Sedibelo platinum project and planned to begin a pre-feasibility study this year.


    He said Africa had become a significant business unit for Barrick, which was operating in Tanzania on properties acquired in 1999.


    Pro forma gold production from Tanzania last year was 640000oz and the country was a great success story in Africa.


    The country had attracted some of the world’s top gold companies, which were able to operate in an environment of political stability.


    Barrick’s total combined exploration budget, including Placer Dome’s pipeline, was $120m last year.


    The group is also exploring in Mali and Burkina Faso as well as in a number of areas around Lake Victoria.

    Der Rand hat seinen Hoehenpunkt erreicht, von nun an gehts Bergab.IMO


    Bald gibt es die ersten Zinssenkungen und der Schaden im Tourismus und Export ist denen jetzt erst bewusst.


    Das ganze sollte sich positiv fuer alle GM Aktien auswirken.


    Das Rad wird sich bald drehen.


    Gruss


    Eldo

    Western Areas posts a quarterly loss
    =============================
    February 20, 2006


    Western Areas, which owns half of Africa's largest gold deposit, posted a


    fourth-quarter loss as it wrote down the value of undeveloped exploration


    assets and sold gold at below market prices because of a contract it had signed.




    The company posted a loss for the
    three months to December
    of R127 million after a profit of R28 million in the preceding quarter, it said.


    Western Areas wrote down the value of some exploration assets by


    R82.8 million because it could not guarantee the company would extract metal from them.






    It sold gold at an average of $366 (R2 202) an ounce because of


    agreements to sell metal at a preset price. That compared with an


    average market price of $476 an ounce and costs of $451 an ounce.

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