SILBER : Märkte und Informationen

Zitat von Soulstorm

grundsätzlich halte auch ich ein Investment in physisches Silber für angebracht
wenn man denn finanziell und emotional in der Lage ist, eine Korrektur von 30 bis 50 %, auszusitzen.
Wie man das mit Optionsscheinen machen soll erscheint mir mehr als optimistisch.
Ich halte es da eher mit zwischenzeitlichen Gewinnmitnahmen und zyklischen Investments.
ocjm

hi folks,

anbei ein artikel von ted butler zum historischen CFTC meeting am 16.12.

http://www.investmentrarities.…r_comentary12-21-10.shtml

gruss

dr.a

Zitat von dr.a

hi folks,

anbei ein artikel von ted butler zum historischen CFTC meeting am 16.12.

http://www.investmentrarities.…r_comentary12-21-10.shtml

gruss

dr.a

Alles anzeigen

interessanter artikel !!!

sollte die mutmaßung in diesem artikel stimmen (chinesen wären an silber manipulation mitbeteiligt),
(sofern ich das mit meinem englisch jetzt richtig verstanden habe... )
macht es dann nicht aus chinesischer sicht doppelt sinn, gold zu horten als gäb es keinen morgen mehr !???

hier zum post & geposteten artikel von edel man, betreffs des goldkaufrauschs der chinesen in 2010

glitzererde

I did not pick interests in China out of the thin air. As the largest producer of silver in the world (mining plus refining), it would sound plausible for them to be short (but never to the extent it has reached on their surrogate COMEX position held by JPM). More importantly, rogue traders from China have had a regular habit of betting on the short side of world commodities that their country consumes with a ravenous appetite, although that would not appear to make sense. Two examples that come to mind are disastrous bets on the short side of oil and copper five or six years ago.
It made no sense for Chinese traders to have bet the short side big in oil or copper. Yet it happened. Just because it makes no sense for someone from China to have bet big on the short side of silver doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen. Let’s face it – someone is and has been short on silver, all the way up from the single digits. It will go down as the single dumbest trade in history when all is said and done, taking the title away from Barrick Gold and Anglo Ashanti for their dumb short gold trades.

Es geht darum, dass hinter den riesigen JPM-Shortpositionen Chinesische Adressen stehen u. Butler, der zweifelsfrei ein Marktkenner allererster Kajüte ist , behauptet, dass dies für chines. Trader keinen Sinn macht (Hervorhebung durch mich).
Er weiß es besser, natürlich macht es Sinn, schließlich wird dadurch die billige Rohstoffversorgung über Jahre gesichert.
Aber das muss der Leser schließlich selber rausfinden, etwas Transferleistung muss sein

Zitat von buddhalf

Es geht darum, dass hinter den riesigen JPM-Shortpositionen Chinesische Adressen stehen

wenn dem so ist, hätten dann nicht gar zwei gewichtige seiten gleichzeitig (jpm & "chinesische adressen"),
kein größeres interesse an einer schnellen aufklärung der jpm-shortpositionen-frage !???

glitzererde

Clever diese Chienesen, erst den Volk ph.Silber empfehlen und dann die Short-Positionen mit Silberenteignung füllen.. .

Zitat von Soulstorm

Clever diese Chienesen, erst den Volk ph.Silber empfehlen und dann die Short-Positionen mit Silberenteignung füllen.. .

Ich würde eher drauf tippen, dass wenn man viele Zettel hat (US Dollar) und davon ausgeht, das die bei späteren Zahlungsverpflichtungen locker alle weggegeben werden können, weil sie eh nichts mehr Wert sind (Inflation), dann .... Ja dann kann ich die Zettel doch locker vorsätzlich in den Sand setzten, um mir derweil noch zu niedrigen Kurzen was reales zu kaufen!

P.S.: Liebe Kinder, bitte macht das nicht zuhausen nach, weil dafür braucht ihr ganz ganz gaaanz viele amerikanische Zettel - vielleicht so zwei Billionen Stück, damit sowas auch wirklich klappt und ihr dabei kein Geld verliert. Aber ihr dürft natürlich zuhause auch ein bisschen mitspielen, dazu das nächste mal mehr, wenn es um das Thema geht: "Wie werde ich Trittbrettfaher beim gelben Mann"

good luck
wolf

Zitat von LuckyFriday

...welche auf Klitschko den Silber-Tageschart aufzeichnet. Auf und ab in ungewöhnlich schneller Kadenz. Man kann davon ausgehen, das dies bis heute abends redaktionell 'geglättet' wird...

LF

wie bei einem Seismographen (wo bebst den hier ? ) .........

VG

Zitat von LuckyFriday

...welche auf Klitschko den Silber-Tageschart aufzeichnet. Auf und ab in ungewöhnlich schneller Kadenz. Man kann davon ausgehen, das dies bis heute abends redaktionell 'geglättet' wird...

LF

aber richtig "nadeln" tut et tun bei palladium - crazy...

computergesteuertes taschenvollmachen

glitzererde

video-time: 04:01 ---> Chart mit Leerverkäufe gegenüber dem Silberpreis
time-range: year-2006 until year-2010

[url]http://www.daf.fm/video/boersenplatz-5-silber-fortsetzung-der-rallye-in-2011-50140730-DE000A0N62F2.html[/url]

Chart: ( Zeitangaben ungenau wegen Ablesefehler bei bildlicher Darstellung )

Okt.2007 bis Feb.2008 und Dez.2008 bis Okt.2009
Der Silberpreis steigt an und gleichzeitigsteigen die Leerverkäufe

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Okt.2010 bis Dec.2010
der Silberpreis steigt aber gleichzeitig sinken die Leerverkäufe

habe leider nicht das Wissen um dies zu erklären.

In letzter Zeit ist immer öfter zu beobachten, dass selbst die Händlerankaufpreise höher liegen als der Spot. Dies gilt für Barren wie Münzen. Vom Verkaufspreis natürlich nicht zu sprechen.

Dies bringt für mich die Frage auf ob physisches Silber bereits so knapp ist, dass der Markt sich vom künstlich niedrig gehaltenen Papiersilberfixing entfernt - dass dies früher oder später passieren würde war klar. Ist es jetzt soweit? Eure Meinung?

Interessanter Kommentar von Haase...entspricht auch meinen Erwartungen, dass wir spätestens in Februar/März 2011 eine kräftige Korrektur erleben.

http://www.goldseitenblog.com/…turgefahr-silber-im-kaufp

Die Analyse ist v. 14.12.10 glaube ich, steht irgendwo , aber die Relevanz ist immer noch genauso hoch: JPM verrringert ihr Engagement im Silberfuture-Markt.
Damit steht ein Drücker weniger zur Verfügung in Zukunft u. die Luft in den obigen Preisregionen wird leichter zu atmen sein

http://www.resourceinvestor.co…in-Silver-.aspx?channel=2

(Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. reduced a large position in the US silver futures market, the Financial Times said, citing an unidentified person familiar with the mater. The decision was made to try to deflect public criticism of its dealings in silver, the FT said. The bank's silver positions would from now on be "materially smaller" than in the past, according to the paper. Two calls and an e-mail to Jennifer Zuccarelli, a New York-based spokeswoman at JPMorgan, were not immediately answered outside of office hours. – Retrieved from GoldCore.com

Aye, but are they finished reducing that size? And, does that reduction of exposure to silver extend to other markets outside the glaring view of US regulators?

As of Monday, the open interest for silver on the CME was reported as 129,712 contracts. That is down 3,427 contracts from last Tuesday’s (December 7) COT report open interest of 133,139 contracts. From Sept. 28 to Dec. 7, as silver rose from $21.71 to $28.06 (a historic $6.32 move higher) we saw the open interest for silver futures fall from 154,219 to 133,139 open, a plunge of 21,080 contracts.

As Vultures (Got Gold Report subscribers) and long-time readers know, it is extraordinary to see the price of silver rise materially as the open interest is falling. It is even more so for that to occur over a period of more than one or two weeks. Just below is a chart showing the relationship of the open interest on the COMEX and the silver price.

Notice, please that up until just recently there has been a direct correlation in the price of silver and the open interest. That makes perfect sense because as prices rise, hedgers become more confident in lower prices and they are willing to put on more hedges and vice versa. Normally, the higher the price goes, the more willing hedgers are to fade them.

That “normal relationship” has broken down just recently.

Hedgers are the price police in the futures markets. Speculators are the speeders and red light runners. (For lack of a better metaphor.)

Consider how strange it is, then, to see the price of silver on a historic rise, the likes of which we have not seen for three decades (since September) and to see that fantastic price increase in the context of a 13.7% plunge in the futures open interest. The chart above does not lie. The historic drop in open interest is as real as the day is long.

Perhaps the quote above about JP Morgan “getting materially smaller” in the silver market is the equivalent of the largest price policeman in “Silvertown” going on holiday, or perhaps retiring.

Since there is no other policeman in town with the kind of muscle as JPM wielded, and with lawsuits and regulators under JP Morgan’s Christmas tree this holiday season, we suppose there are two interesting questions to ponder. First, with the news now surfacing in the mainstream press, is JPM about done “getting smaller?” And, since we doubt that JPM is exiting a formerly “money making” business for altruistic reasons, what are the real motivators behind their decision to lessen their “footprint” in the futures markets? (We would argue that being able to manhandle the market from time to time is the money making part, but that is arguable at this point and at this time.)

Our sense is that if, repeat, if there was an upward bias to the market because of JPM’s reducing their net short exposure (we think there was), then unless they are all the way done with that, we will almost certainly see more of it before they are done. The other trading “gentlemen and ladies” on the Comex bourse are very highly unlikely to be sympathetic and accommodative so that JPM might have an easier go of it. To the contrary, the other traders can be likened to large, hungry sharks with the scent of blood in the water.

That underscores our question, then, if JPM is done or near done, because if they are about done reducing their “hedges,” then we should be speaking in the past tense for the upward pressure they brought to the silver market in this event. If they are not done, perhaps not in the past tense – yet.

As we reported for our subscribers in Sunday’s COT Flash report, probably two US banks still held 53.2% of all the commercial net short positioning for Comex silver futures although the two banks did reduce their net short positioning by a small 3,905 contracts from the Nov. 2 to the Dec. 7 reports. (We are estimating the number of US banks because the CFTC no longer reports the number when it is under four.)

That suggests the bullion banks and JPM were still in reduction mode as of last Tuesday. On the other hand, the fact that this has surfaced in the press now, just ahead of an important CFTC meeting on Thursday hints that the JPM brain trust wants it known they “get it.” For some that would be a fun way to look at it, but we suspect that what is occurring is a combination of multiple factors coming together at once. Not merely one "price policeman" moving off the beat.

Let’s nutshell the factors for today: Exploding demand into dwindling available inventory of silver and heightened scrutiny and interference in the old silver game by more energetic and motivated regulators; coupled with a large fraction of the world’s available bar silver being removed from availability has rendered the “old way” of trading in silver futures just not nearly as much “fun” for the Big Dogs at the Comex. How does that sound?

And maybe, just maybe, the price policemen see something that scares them just ahead. Something that scares hedgers more than anything – the possibility of a true supply squeeze.

Maybe getting smaller or getting out of the silver hedging business (except for clients) is simply the prudent thing to do.

We Vultures cannot know if the current silver market is poised to explode higher from here. It certainly might, and it might not. We cannot know in advance if this is “IT” this time, or if this is merely the rehearsal for the Big One to come. We are nicely positioned long, but we are not arrogantly long. We have our stops in place for our short term trading, allowing for wide and extreme volatility just ahead, in case this is not yet the big move higher we have been writing about and talking about for nearly a decade. We have our core metal positions which are not yet for sale at any price behind those.

If this is merely the warning, and silver prices are set to correct harshly, we want out to the sidelines with a majority of our profits in our short-term trading, then having plenty of ammo to fire when silver shows us where overwhelming support will form thereafter, but if this is the Big One, the blast off, the rocket launch of a lifetime we have been preparing for, there is one overriding concern on our part. We want to be on board, just as we are today, Tuesday, Dec. 14, 2010.

The next few COT reports could be the most important COT reports we have ever had in the tiny silver market. To subscribe to the full Got Gold Report, please click on the GGR Subscribe button above and to the right. And thank you for doing so! Subscribers help make GGR possible.

That is all for today. Thanks for honoring us with your time and your business.

A land developer, professional numismatist, self-taught bullion trader and investor since 1980, Gene Arensberg analyzes technical and fundamental developments in the precious metals markets. In 2000 Gene started sharing his own market research with fellow traders and fund managers. Those email reports evolved into his popular Got Gold Report, a biweekly look at important indicators for gold and silver published on the web. Gene’s more in-depth market reports, insights and trading ideas are available at http://www.GotGoldReport.com.

Is China Behind the Big Silver Short?

http://goldsilver.com/news/is-…ind-the-big-silver-short/

Gerade hat wieder die grosse Drückerei an der NYMEX begonnen. Wie in letzter Zeit üblich aber in die falsche Richtung.