Harmony Gold Mining / HMY (NYSE), HAR (SA) und Gold Fields / GFI

    So gering ist der Unterschied zwischen HAR und GFI gar nicht.


    Bei gleichbleibenden Umständen, einem starken Rand, wird schnell klar, daß Harmony mit dem Rücken zur Wand steht.


    Die Serie von Verlustquartalen zeigt, daß HAR nicht in der gleichen Liga wie GFI spielt.

    DJ Harmony Extends Offer To Gold Fields Hldrs To Mar 18



    LONDON, Jan 21, 2005 (ODJ Select via COMTEX) -- Edited Press Release


    (Dow Jones)--Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited Friday announces that, whilst
    it is awaiting the outcome of the investigation of the proposed merger by the
    Competition Authorities of South Africa, the expected closing date of the
    subsequent offer is hereby extended to 12.00 pm South African time, on Friday,
    18 March 2005.


    Harmony said that it will notify shareholders by means of a public announcement
    of any amendment to the expected closing date of the subsequent offer set out
    above.


    Harmony announces that as at 12.00 p.m., South African time, on 20 January 2005
    valid acceptances of the subsequent offer had been received in respect of a
    total of 44 416 Gold Fields shares.


    Harmony considers this level of acceptances to be entirely consistent with
    customary market practice where an offer is still awaiting approval from the
    competition authorities.


    In addition, as previously announced, Harmony has received an irrevocable
    undertaking from Norilsk to accept the subsequent offer in respect of 98,467,758
    Gold Fields shares, representing approximately 20.03% of the entire issued share
    capital of Gold Fields.


    The company said that the extension of the closing date of the subsequent offer
    does not impact the Norilsk"s irrevocable undertaking. Accordingly, Harmony now
    either owns, has received valid acceptances of the subsequent offer or has an
    irrevocable undertaking to accept the subsequent offer in respect of a total of
    155,077,569 Gold Fields shares representing approximately 31.5% of the entire
    issued share capital of Gold Fields.





    (C) Copyright 2005 ODJ

    @ gogh und Steph -


    Norilsk ist zweifellos die grosse Unbekannte, die ihren 20% Anteil erst Monate vorher von Anglo erwarb. Ich dachte damals es war strategisch; Doch nun kommt man zur "Zwangs"-Überzeugung einer Abzokkung!


    Hab mit Ferdi Dippenaar (HMY) gleich nach der Bekanntgabe der Übernahme gesprochen. War damals ziemlich sauer, da ich mit Ferdi einige historische Hühnchen rupfte, jedoch auch sehr positive Erfahrungen machte.


    Beide Co's haben erstklassige Assets, Management und Aussichten. Sollte sich auch SA entschliessen etwas positives für ihre Minen-Industrie zu tun, und insbesonders die Zinsen für den Rand zu senken, um die Spielwiese wieder ebener zu machen würde ich es begrüssen.


    ... Auch würde ich wieder Geld in DUrban Roodeport Deeps stecken, um nicht nur konservativ zu erscheinen.

    Die 3 Südafrikaner notieren dicht an "runden" Beträgen.

    Halten wir mal fest

    Freitag, 21.01.05
    =============

    Durban 1 €

    Harmony 7 €

    Goldfields 9 €

    Mein Ziel 30.06.05 (oder früher)
    ========================


    Durban 3 €

    Harmony 15 €

    Goldfields 15 €


    gogh

    Gold Fields Aktionäre scheinen sich Harmony an den Hals zu schmeissen. Inzwischen ist das zweite Angebot für 44.421 Gold Fields Aktien angenommen worden. Das sind bei 491 Millionen Gold Fields Aktien doch immerhin 0,01% ! [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smiliemania.de/smilie132/00000285.gif]


    Harmony also says it has received further acceptances for the deal from 44,421 Gold Fields shares since the first phase of the offer closed on December 1 last year when 11.8 percent of Gold Fields shareholders had accepted Harmony scrip in exchange for Gold Fields.. This equates to 0.01 percent of Gold Fields’s equity according to Mineweb’s calculations.
    http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/405467.htm

    Egal was passieren sollte, auch wenn im unwahrsch. Fall die Übernahme nicht klappen soll, ist harmony empfehlenswerter, da Harmony seinen 10% Anteil, den sie bisher erworben haben am Markt verkaufen können und somit wieder erhebliche kursgefahr für Gold Fields besteht.


    gruss
    tobi

    Nach mineweb hat Harmony aus dem conditional Übernahmeangebot eines ohne die Bedingung der Mehrheit von 50% gemacht. Ansonsten hätte die erste 60 Tage Frist, die am 31.01.04 abläuft, nur noch um weitere 21 Tage verlängert werden können.


    Harmony bid at crucial juncture
    David McKay
    Posted: Wed, 26 Jan 2005
    ....


    To the outside observer, however, it appears as if Harmony CEO Bernard Swanepoel’s vision for a 8m oz/year South African gold producer is in distress. The company’s executives are downbeat in telephone conversations; bankers are cautious, and the press release campaign is considerably quieter. More instructively, Harmony’s share price has been under pressure, although it can be argued – as attempted by David Davis of Andisa Securities - that 80% of this value loss is actually related to the rand/dollar exchange rate.


    Nonetheless, Harmony’s share price will remain under pressure while speculation of an improved offer exists. Certainly, a higher bid is difficult to imagine, according to Georges Lequime, an analyst for RBC Capital. “Harmony can’t increase its offer because there’s no cash element. As soon as there’s mention of a higher offer, the share price is under pressure owing to the dilutory effects,” he said.


    There’s also talk that some of Harmony's shareholders want a withdrawal of the bid. According to Bloomberg, Noril’sk Nickel remains supportive, but the expectation is that making Harmony’s bid unconditional will enable the Russian firm to withdraw its support when the irrevocable undertaking to Harmony Gold expires on May 21.


    Douglas reflected that Harmony’s bid never made strategic sense. “Strategically, there’s no benefit to a merger creating an 8-9m oz/year company with 80% of production in South Africa. I believe the global investment community was not looking for that. It’s like creating the old AngloGold all over again before it slimmed down and diversified,” she said.


    In a recent note, Lequime bluntly states the case: “The best case short-to-medium term scenario for Harmony Gold shareholders seems to be the concurrent sale of its Gold Fields interest at market prices and the abandonment of the bid,” he wrote. Harmony would immediately rebound to R75/share if this was the decision, Lequime added.
    http://www.miningmx.com/gold_silver/408338.htm


    > Harmony unter Druck: Führungskräfte niedergeschlagen, Bankster vorsichtiger und die Kampagne beträchtlich leiser geworden.
    Harmony kann ohne Cashkomponente kein höheres Angebot machen, da die Aktie wg der Verwässserung sofort weiter abschmieren würde.
    Durch die Änderung des Angebots könnte NorNickel von seiner "unwiderruflichen" Unterstützung zurücktreten.
    Analyst Douglas von BMO Nesbitt Burns: Harmony´s Angebot hat noch nie einen strategischen Sinn ergeben.
    Analyst Lequime von RBC Captal: Das beste mittelfristige Szenario für HAR Aktionäre ist der Verkauf des GFI Anteils und die Aufgabe des Übernahmeangebots.



    Was ist eigentlich mit dem geprüften Reservenbericht von Harmony? Shell soll auch wieder in Schwierigkeiten beim Reservencheck sein.

    I'm just a "Gruenschnabel" here and make my own decisions in investing Still I like to read in this forum and compare notes.
    There are great guys in this forum who got their act together and know a lot.


    Back to your question:


    I did communicate with both CEO from HMY and GFI and believe that GFI has a better vision and more clever CEO than Bernhard Swanepoel.
    I don't trust HMY anymore,what they did was crazy and dentrimental so far. But who knows, maybe Swanepoel knows something we don't know and banks on it. Lately, all hostile takeover attempts backfired so far ! X(
    The one who gets hostile,his shares will drop most.
    Maybe the CEO of HMY is the new de Klerk who has been ordered to hand over the RSA mines to few blacks who sit in the background. (read my report about "nochmals zu SA und Rand") , maybe you understand why I think so.They could have made secret meetings and deals without the "talk to my lawyer "attitude which costs a lot. .. so much ! ......Anyway,


    HMY-GFI- DRD-RNG-AU (all very cheap) but "it's a cliffhanger"".
    I had to sell half of GFI and HMY because the gamble and stake was too high for me. They reached stop loss levels.
    Time is money , I ran out of it. I feel GFI is the better Company,HMY has 90% here in RSA and also Union Problems. 80% of SA mines are not profitable at the moment,and despite unemployment,the guys don't want to work extra shifts on Sunday. I also fear a slow, hidden and stealth nationalisation by few rich black guys who have shares already in both companies.In the long run the danger exists, that's why z.B. Anglo Gold and GFI started to invest outside RSA. HMY has only a bit in Australia and most of the eggs in one basket. (in sunny and beautiful SA)
    Strangely the SA Reserve Bank makes the interest rate decision today,the same day as the Fed. ?(
    I'm holding for years both shares, but so far it was more a patriotic thing with no real return and flat,sideway share price in USD and a disaster in Rands. ;(
    I guess I'm better off with SSRI,CDE, HL, IMA, SLW and Avino Silver with the half I sold. HMY and GFI did go nowhere but south. I'm more confident about investing in mining shares in China/Mongolia than here in SA where there is less geopolitical risk and cheaper labour.


    There is a huge speculation against the rand and I don't know anymore when its over.
    It's a Rand gamble to keep or buy HMY/GFI/DRD,..that what I wanted to say...its a surprise ! You can put in all or nothing if you like,its a risk.
    I would not put more than 15% into SA shares until we see what happens to the Rand. We know what will happen to the dollar long term,but the Rand is difficult to predict for the next six month, its a catch 22, every time the Goldprice rises,the Rand got stronger and vice versa.
    There is no economic reason why the Rand is so strong and its strenghts is unsustainable and dentrimental for the country in the long run. It "may" go to 8 Rand/USD if the speculation stops within one year.
    First it has to fall to R 6.30 and break the 200 Ma, the signal of going further down to 8 Rand.
    As soon as HMY/GFI makes profit again,the unions and government wants more and more from it. It's always the same here. :rolleyes:
    Anyhow,I expect that from next week on all metal shares will rebound and climb, its a good point to accumulate ""now"". Its about time !! ;)


    Good luck to the gambler and speculators of SA Shares :P

    " don't trust HMY anymore,what they did was crazy and dentrimental so far"


    Offensichtlich gibt es da eine ganze Anzahl Mephistos bei HAR.

    Staatliche, Weiße und Schwarze.


    Das sind aber alles Dilettanten gemessen an denjenigen,

    die in USA und D am Werk sind.


    Relativ geht es in Südafrika so zu, wie es der Randkurs anzeigt.


    Es gibt 2 Möglichkeiten:

    1. die Dilettanten fallen auf die Nase

    2. Die Dilettanten werden Profis wie in USA oder D:
    Dann fällt der Rand

    gogh

    Ok, put it this way, I lost my faith in Swanepoel and have no trust in his black board members with their russian mafia shareholders & friends who supported the ANC all the way. Es geht aber nur "relativ" so zu in SA wie es der Rand zeigt,du hast das richtige wort gewaehlt was ich nicht gemacht habe. Eigentlich ist ja alles relativ, wass auch immer..und somit finde ich das HMY trotzdem was ich schreibe, relativ preiswert ist.


    Otherwise, you are damn right....


    XGX

    so, hab jetzt noch schnell zu diesen Kursen Harmony gekauft !!!


    Ich kann mir ehrlich gesagt nicht vorstellen, auch wenn schon seit 2 Jahren es heißt der Rand muss runter, jetzt muss er runter. Die SA Government schneidet sich ja ins eigenen Hemd da sie ihren Export zunichte machen, wenn sie nicht bald eine Zinssenkung einleiten so, dass der Rand sinkt.


    Doch sobald dieser sinkt, dann heißt es bei Harmony $$$$$$$$$$


    gruss
    tob

    Harmony ist nicht in der Lage, den geprüften Reservenbericht, wie angekündigt, Mitte Januar vorzulegen. Ist nötig geworden, da Gold Fields auf Unregelmäßigkeiten in HAR´s Berichten hingewiesen hatte.


    Harmony Gold says timing of reserves report beyond its control
    By: Allan Seccombe
    Posted: '31-JAN-05 15:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004


    JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- The timing of the release of the competent person's report (CPR) by SRK Consulting is out of the hands of Harmony and the company cannot say when it will be released, a spokeswoman told Mineweb on Monday.


    “SRK has it,” Jennifer Cohen said.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://download.smiliemania.de/smilies132/00000285.gif]


    SRK has said it has confidentiality agreements with its clients and did not discuss their business with the media.


    Once the audit of Harmony’s assets has been completed, the report will be sent to South Africa’s Securities Regulation Panel to be approved, a process which could take up to two weeks, Cohen said.


    Gold Fields chief executive Ian Cockerill said at his company's results presentation on Monday that the report had been expected since early December.


    Gold Fields, a takeover target by Harmony, has repeatedly said that it would like to see a CPR on its smaller rival’s mines so that it can better evaluate Harmony’s all-share offer of 1.275 shares for each Gold Fields share.


    Harmony released its reserve and resource figures before the end of 2004. A more comprehensive report was expected in January this year.


    Harmony said it had 59.086 million ounces in mineral reserves, 3.1 million ounces lower than the figure stated in the annual report. It reported that 1.718 million ounces were mined between 1 July and 15 December 2004, while a R92,000/kg gold price was used in the reserves declaration.


    The CPR will contain a summary equity evaluation for the company. The CPR is “based on a sum-of-the-parts approach comprising net asset values for the mining assets and supplemental information as provided by Harmony,” said a Harmony statement in December.


    SRK, the consultancy performing the CPR, says it will have visited Harmony’s 48 shafts and 15 metallurgical plants, exploration properties and foreign mines, before the report is completed.


    Beyond Harmony´s control ...[Blockierte Grafik: http://download.smiliemania.de/smilies132/00000285.gif]
    Der Bericht wird wohl bis zum Ende des Übernahmeangebots leider nicht mehr fertig werden :D
    http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/409422.htm


    Jetzt bin ich gespannt, ob Swanepoel HAR´s Quartalszahlen so türken kann, daß sie neben den Zahlen von GFI nicht so schlecht aussehen, wie jeder erwartet.

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A