Harmony Gold Mining / HMY (NYSE), HAR (SA) und Gold Fields / GFI

    Ich denke, dass dieser Zinsschritt durchaus als SENSATION bezeichnet werden darf ! ! Denn bei einer Umfrage von Reuters letzte Woche sagten noch alle 19 Analysten (!!!!), dass sie keine Zinssenkung erwarten ! !


    Deshalb denke ich, dass jetzt erst Banken, Fonds u. ....ähnliche beginnen Positionen aufzubauen in SA-AKtien insbesondere Harmony. Für Harmony könnte sich das wie ein Goldpreisanstieg von 30% auswirken, wenn der Rand weiter sinkt. Diese Kurse derzeit sind echte KAUFKURSE !!


    Ich glaube, wenn auch Amerika diese Meldung begriffen hat, dürfte es sehr bald wieder aufgehen.


    Wenn nun auch der Goldpreis und Gold Bugs wieder anziehen - dann dürfen wir uns über schöne Gewinne freuen ! !


    gruss
    steph

    was wenn der Rand nicht sinkt ? Und gleichzeitig der Goldpreis fällt ?


    In EU haben wir auch Zinsen von 2% und der Euro ist gegenüber dem Dolar gestiegen.


    Nicht die Zinsen bestimmen den Wechselkurs. Nicht mehr.

    Zinsen sind nicht der alleinige Faktor, aber eine wichtige Größe. Insbesondere ist Südafrika für internationale Zinsjäger wegen der dortigen hohen Zinsen interessant, das führt zu einer starken Randnachfrage.


    Hier ein Schnipsel :
    The reality is that South Africa has one of the highest real interest rates in the world, attracting “hot” money from global capital portfolio flows into domestic overnight accounts.


    Such transactions, known as “carry trades” can dry up in hours, never mind days or weeks. Despite similar, low rates of inflation in South Africa and the US, core interest rates are, respectively, 7.5%, against 2.75% in the US, where rates are rising. So far, it has been a no-brainer to borrow in dollars and invest in rands.
    Aus:
    http://www.mineweb.net/columns/curve_ball/428769.htm

    steph


    Für mich war der Zinsschritt eigentlich nicht so überraschend, da davon eigentlich fast alle Anlaysten auf dem falschen Fuss erwischt wurden; wie immer an der Börse - wenn alle auf etwas warten....so wie Sommerrally etc...dann triffts fast nie ein.


    Ich hoffe auf eine nachhaltige Umkehr der selbstmörderischen "Inflationsbekämpfung" durch das SA Gouvernment

    Der Zinsunterschied US/EU ist jetzt 0,75% und war 0,5% und trotzdem ist der Euro gestiegen.


    Der Unterschied zwischen US/ZA ist 4,25%. Bis es annähernd gleich ist kann es Jahre dauern. Dass die Tendenz des ZAR nach unten geht ist klar. Die Minen brauchen aber sofort ein schwaches Rand denn sie fahren schon lange auf Reserve. In einem Jahr kann es schon zu spät sein bzw. für einige wird es zu spät sein.


    Aus meiner Kolumne

    Harmony holds retrenchments


    Apr 15 2005 07:54:26:723PM


    Johannesburg, April 15 (I-Net Bridge) - World number six gold miner Harmony Gold will hold off issuing retrenchment notices until next week, April 21.
    Ths is while an investigation into the individual shafts affected by restructuring is done up to April 20, a Solidarity spokesperson said on Friday.


    A meeting will be held on April 20 and the following day the retrenchment notices will be issued, he added.


    On March 14 and March 15 2005, Harmony issued Section 189 notices of restructuring to unions and staff associations at five operations.


    The Welkom 1, which employs 526 people, St Helena (817 people), Nyala (1 003 people), Masimong (669 people) and Bambanani gold mine near Welkom (1 899 workers), were issued with notices.


    The notices of restructuring affect a total of 4 914 miners.

    Harmony lags GFI 1.55 times



    Apr 15 2005 02:08:19:597PM

    Harmony's job shocker




    Johannesburg - The premium of world number four gold miner Gold Fields' shares to that of rival Harmony's shares on Friday opened to 1.55 times, the widest level since Harmony launched its bid for Gold Fields on October 18 2004.
    Harmony is currently offering Gold Fields' shareholders 1.275 Harmony shares for every Gold Fields security held.


    Just before Harmony launched its bid for Gold Fields, Harmony and Gold Fields shares were trading at parity.


    Harmony's authorised share capital stands at 1.2 billion shares.


    At the end of Harmony's 2004 financial year its issued share capital was 320.742 million shares and at the end of Gold Fields' 2004 financial year its issued share capital was 491.493 million.


    At the start of Harmony's bid it had approximately 879.258 million shares to issue for Gold Fields' shares, which means the maximum offer ratio that Harmony can offer is about 1.780 Harmony shares for every Gold Fields security held.


    However, Harmony's two major shareholders African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) and fund manager Allan Gray have said they won't support an increase in Harmony's offer to Gold Fields' shareholders.


    Since the bid's launch Harmony has acquired 11.6% of Gold Fields' shares and its issued share capital has increased to 393.232 million shares, Harmony spokesperson Brenton Saunders confirmed.


    At 13:50, Gold Fields' shares were quoted at R66.66, up 0.2% or 51c, 1.53 times Harmony's shares, which were quoted at R43.50, down 1.1% or 50c.


    Harmony is set to release its March quarter results on April 25 and the group is expected to report its seventh consecutive loss making quarter.


    Gold Fields will issue its March quarter results on April 28, with the group expected to report a profit.

    Cockerill macht eine Andeutung, daß an einer internationalen Strategie gearbeitet wird, die Norilsk Nickel einschließt.


    GFI hätte schon in der Vergangenheit an entfernten Orten gearbeitet, aber dies bräuchte üblicherweise einen starken lokalen Partner.


    S.Africa's Gold Fields has plans for Norilsk - paper
    Mon April 18, 2005 10:20 AM GMT+02:00


    JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South African gold miner Gold Fields Ltd is working on an international strategy that may involve its major shareholder Norilsk Nickel of Russia, Chief Executive Ian Cockerill told Business Day on Monday.


    "Norilsk is a great local partner, and they know how to operate in that part of the world, and nothing would give me more potential than working with Norilsk," Cockerill told the paper.


    But the world's fourth biggest gold producer was unable go public with its plans while it remains the target of Harmony's hostile takeover bid.


    He said Gold Fields had a track record of mining in "far and away places", but this usually required a "great" local partner.


    Gold Fields is fighting off a takeover bid from smaller rival Harmony which has the backing of Norilsk -- Gold Fields' biggest shareholder with a 20 percent holding.


    The Russian firm's irrevocable undertaking to support Harmony's bid is due to expire in May 20. The deal would be worth an estimated $6 billion.


    Most analysts have written off the possibility that Norilsk would extend the undertaking, although Harmony's Chief Executive Bernard Swanepoel has said Harmony might have a strong interest in extending it.


    Gold Fields shares opened 2.53 percent lower at 65.40 rand while Harmony was 0.34 percent weaker at 43.86. The gold index was 1.73 percent softer.
    http://www.reuters.co.za/local…Key=en_ZA&storyID=8208158

    GFI zieht bald den Hasen aus dem Hut , besonders wenn sie sich mit norilsk verbuenden sollten. Dann wird Swanepoel die klappe runterfallen,bzw.seine Burenohren. :D
    GFI wird dann mehr in Russland und Mongolia taetig werden und sich mehr ins Ausland verlagern wo die produktions kosten geringer sind.
    Ian Cockerill ist ein weitsichtiger mann und Swanepoel so kurzsichtig wie eine muraene der aber seine Aktionaere blutig gebissen hat. X(


    IMHO


    Gruss


    XEX

    Gold Fields accuses Harmony of abuse


    April 20, 2005


    By Nicky Smith


    Gold Fields yesterday accused Harmony of trying to use the competition tribunal to get its hands on Gold Fields' defence strategy for its hostile bid.


    Mike van der Nest, Gold Fields' lawyer, told the tribunal that all the information that Harmony needed to make its bid for Gold Fields was in the public domain, and the "burning issue is that Harmony wants Gold Fields' defence strategy to the bid".


    Van der Nest admitted that Gold Fields had done "an about face" when it decided it no longer wanted the information it had requested from Harmony."We have given the information back totally unread," Van der Nest said.


    Van der Nest did not say what had caused Gold Fields' change of heart.Nick Holland, Gold Fields' financial director, explained that the information had been requested as a matter of course, but upon reflection and in consultation with Gold Fields' legal team "we certainly didn't feel the information was necessary".


    The tribunal's proceedings were delayed by more than an hour and a half yesterday because Gold Fields had not prepared a list of documents, specifically requested by the tribunal, which it wanted suppressed or returned to it.


    Once produced, the list, which neither Gold Fields nor Harmony would release to the press, contained three categories of information deemed by Gold Fields' either as irrelevant or unnecessary as well as information Gold Fields considered "too confidential".


    Van der Nest said Gold Fields was prepared to hand over minutes of board meetings to Harmony with parts of it "blacked out".


    These blacked out parts contained information of Gold Fields' relationship with Norilsk Nickel as well as information on Gold Fields' defence strategy.


    Harmony launched its bid for Gold Fields in October last year.
    It will present its version of events today.

    These funds of the sale will be allocated towards Harmony's numerous growth projects currently under construction :D where Harmony believes it is able to generate a higher return on investment.


    “It also further demonstrates Harmony's commitment to South Africa and the South African gold mining industry,” Swanepoel said.


    Man lebt so lange wie moeglich von der substanz bis der rand schwaecher wird.


    Keiner weiss wann, nur ein paar ! :D


    Gruss


    XEX

    HARMONY geht die Luft noch lange nicht aus.


    Selbst wenn der CEO sich anscheinend mit eigenen Händen

    selbst erwürgen will.

    Vorgestern kam von der Depotbank zum x-ten mal

    die "Verlängerung der Umtauschfrist in GFI".

    Die müssen im Board bei Harmony reichlich

    und häufig gegorenen Kokusnußsaft einnehmen.


    Aber wie gesagt, HAR ansich ist kerngesund.



    gogh

    Erwartet wird, daß HAR im Märzquartal mind. 1 Mrd. Rand abschreibt.


    Said Simon Hudson-Peacock, a fund manager for African Harvest: “If write-downs are R1bn in the March quarter, it’s a very conservative figure. I think it should be quadruple that,” he said.


    A poor operating result, cash burn, and the prospect of more restructuring costs and impairments are expected to further weaken the likelihood of Harmony succeeding in its bid for Gold Fields.
    Aus:
    http://www.miningmx.com/gold_silver/434745.htm


    Ich würde den Laden ganz abschreiben. :D

    Gold Fields granted partial interdict



    Posted Fri, 22 Apr 2005


    South Africa's Competition Tribunal on Thursday ruled that some of the information and documents that Gold Fields was seeking to be declared confidential could be released only to Harmony Gold's advisors and lawyers, but with limited release to the group's management.


    The Tribunal also found that other documents and information could be released to Harmony without limitation.


    "The Tribunal overturned Gold Fields' urgent application and Harmony got access to about 90 percent of the information it asked for. Harmony's got the information we needed," Harmony spokesperson Brenton Saunders said.


    Gold Fields was seeking an interdict to stop the group from having to hand over certain documents and information to Harmony.


    The Tribunal heard argument from both Gold Fields and Harmony on Tuesday and Wednesday.


    Harmony was likely to win the right to merge with Gold Fields from the Tribunal, as the Competition Commission had already approved the deal, but the key issue would be what conditions the Tribunal placed on the merger, Saunders said.


    In February 2005, the Commission approved the merger on the condition that a moratorium be placed on low-level worker retrenchments for two years after the conclusion of the merger.


    The second condition was that the merged entity retrench a maximum of 1500 employees from shift-boss to the chief executive level.


    Gold Fields' spokesperson Willie Jacobsz wasn't available to comment.


    I-Net Bridge

    'Harmony Way' still relevant – Swanepoel



    Gold-miner Harmony, whose heavy South African exposure has come under intense scrutiny as rand gold prices have weakened over the last couple of years, believes its business model remains as relevant as ever.


    CEO Bernard Swanepoel says the original Harmony competitive advantage of taking South African operations and, through the so-called ‘Harmony Way’, reducing the cost structure of a South African underground gold-mine by 25% to 30%, is a business model that can ‘never die’.


    “I think that business model will probably come to its full the day we own every underground gold-mine in South Africa,” Swanepoel quips, pointing out that Harmony currently owns a third and is making a bid for another third through its bid for Gold Fields.


    “You can also argue that it is in the strong rand environment when other mines need the ‘Harmony Way’ even more and that it is in the depressed, tough times that South African gold-mines will come up for sale,” he adds.


    He says the ‘perfect storm’ of low rand-gold prices and rising costs currently is creating fertile conditions for further consolidation and that it is a ‘pity’ that obvious consolidation opportunities are being obscured by the high-profile struggle between it and Gold Fields, which has made its battle cry ‘No way to the Harmony Way’.


    The combination of falling prices, runaway administered costs, higher-than-inflation wage increases and maturing mines is likely to force a serious rethink in the coming months, especially given declining output, which last year fell 8,8% to 342,7 t, the lowest level since 1931.


    In an interview with Mining Weekly, Swanepoel called on the industry and government to adopt a ‘holistic’ approach that helps foster a ‘more logical’ grouping of orebodies. He points to obvious mining and processing synergies between Harmony’s Joel mine in the Free State and Gold Fields’ Beatrix, both of which have been dipping in and out of profitability for the past 18 months. He also sees ‘spectacular’ potential underground synergies between Randfontein, Kloof and South Deep, all of which are owned and operated independently. The potential for mine-hospital consolidation was also significant.


    The company, which has taken something of a public relations beating since the launch of its hostile bid for Gold Fields in October, is in the throes of its own painful restructuring as a response to the current hostile environment.


    It is bidding to reduce its cash cost to R75 000/kg from the current level of over R77 000/kg; is in the process of closing five shafts; and 4 900 of its 48 000-strong workforce could lose their jobs in the next few weeks. Production, which has been on a steady upward trajectory ever since Harmony’s dazzling entry on to the gold-mining stage as an independent company a decade ago, has not only flattened but is expected to fall from the 3,1-million ounce level achieved in 2004.


    Swanepoel argues that, while employment could well be affected by another round of consolidation, the status quo is likely to be far more deleterious. He also does not anticipate the evolution of a new breed of bottom feeders (as Harmony was in the 1990s), which could pick up loss-making assets and turn them around.


    “All of us have to join forces to optimise what is arguably the last 50 years of a magnificent orebody (the Witwatersrand Basin),” Swanepoel avers.


    No retreating from Gold Fields offer But despite Harmony’s troubles, which Swanepoel admits will probably only ease after the June quarter, when it begins realising the benefits of the restructuring exercise, there are no signs of retreat from its current strategy or from the Gold Fields bid.


    This strategy, which was initially focused on the acquisition and turnaround of underground South African mines, has been broadened over the years to embrace exploration, mine building in South Africa and Papua New Guinea (PNG) and a serious internationalisation effort. The group is currently spending R100-million a quarter on new-mine construction and recently pushed the button on the Hidden Valley project in PNG. These projects have left Harmony spending more every quarter than it is currently making, but its balance sheet should be strengthened by the R1-billion proceeds from the sales of its African Rainbow Minerals stake. Swanepoel is also adamant that once its costs target is met it will be making a sufficient margin to fund its growth. He also stresses that the Gold Fields acquisition is ‘bang on strategy’, but describes it as a ‘nice to have’ rather than a necessity. Nonetheless, he remains fierce in defence of the bid and the manner in which it has been carried out, although admitting that he would probably have attempted ‘a few more meetings’ with Gold Fields management had he realised just how hostile and personal the defence would become. However, he admits that the premise of the offer, which claims cost-cutting potential of R1-billion at Gold Fields, is immediately ‘impolite’ and that the bid was, thus, always likely to be somewhat unfriendly.


    He remains confident of gaining control, despite the ever-widening gap between the share prices of the two companies, which has left many in the market suggesting that the Harmony offer is dead.


    “I still back us to get to control, but I am not as confident on a time period,” he says – prior to well-publicised regulatory delays, Swanepoel had set May 15 as the day control would be gained.


    He does not dwell on the crucial relationship Harmony has with Norilsk Nickel – the Russian company has given an undertaking to support the Harmony bid until May 20 – suggesting only that it had its corporate objectives for Gold Fields, while Harmony had its own.


    ‘Time on our side’ Time, which Swanepoel acknow-ledges was against the company in the early stages of the bid, is now, he argues, back on Harmony’s side.


    “Once we have cleared all the regulatory hurdles and make our offer unconditional, we then have the option of allowing time play to our advantage.” He said Gold Fields would come under increasing pressure to put its new strategy into the public domain, so that all shareholders, including Harmony, which has more than 11% of Gold Fields, could have an opportunity to decide between the alternatives.


    “This alternative may involve another attempt at splitting the company, or even a proposal that gives Norilsk everything it wants, possibly at the expense of other shareholders,” he said, arguing that previous Gold Fields deals had been skewed towards other parties at the expense of its own shareholders, making specific reference to the Iamgold and Mvelaphanda transactions.


    Overall, though, Swanepoel argues that the current defence strategy of delay will inevitably have to give way to an alternative strategy.


    “I think that, from here on, time is no longer on their (Gold Fields) side and it may become their enemy, because people are now looking for a strategy beyond the delays.” He argues, too, that the ‘war of attrition’ is coming to an end and insists that Harmony’s offer will remain in place once all the legal and regulatory challenges had been overcome – Gold Fields has launched another urgent application to prevent Harmony from accessing information as part of the ‘discovery phase’ ahead of the Competition Tribunal hearing in early May.


    “Of course, our offer serves as an underpin for the Gold Fields share price, which is fine with us because we are a R4-billion investor in the company.


    “But if something else comes on to the horizon which is so big that we really need to redirect our resources, well, then we become a seller of Gold Fields shares, close our offer and use the money somewhere else,” Swanepoel outlines.


    He indicates that its merger and acquisition team remains as active as ever and that it is assessing opportunities in South Africa, PNG, Russia and parts of Asia.


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    FINALLY ! :D

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