Das Ende der Junior- und Explorer Euphorie?

Das heisst Beginn !!...nicht der Anfang vom Ende.
Lese dich mal in den Minenaktien Bereich rein, vielleicht findest du das richtige Los.

Ende der Junior- und Explorer-Euphorie, ein Faktum.
Hier eine Ansicht vor Ort, nämlich von dort, wo die Goldminen sind.Die jenigen die mich kennen, wissen das: Ich bin als Bergbauer kein Freund von diesen Junior-Explorerfirmen, weil die sich zum Teil so aufführen, wie die Heuschrecken. Auch bin ich gegenüber Firmen sehr skeptisch, die das notwendige Kapital für Bergbauprojekte an den Aktienmärkten beschaffen müssen. Ich ziehe nämlich gegenüber anonymen Kapital, jene Partner für Minenprojekte vor, die ich kenne und wo man ein gutes Vertrauensverhältnis hat, oder persönlich aufbauen kann.Der Grossteil dieser „Heuschrecken“ kommen ins Gelände und führen sich angeberisch auf - nur meistens ist hinter denen nichts los. Ausser grosse Sprüche, ist da nix dahinter. Sprich: die wahre Bonität dieser Leute, erfährt man meist am schnellsten, wenn man in der Stadt bei den Hotels, Puff‘s, Pensionen und Zulieferer nachfragt, wie es mit der Zahlungsmoral des „Explorers“ bestellt ist. Aufgrund meiner Erfahrungen, steht es da gut und gerne 90% sehr schlecht um all diese Herren von Juniors und Explorern. Die Damen vom horizontalen Gewerbe sind für mich dabei immer noch die beste Informationsquelle für entsprechende Bonitäts-Indikatoren. Das Problem was diese Leute haben: Eine fehlende solide Finanzierung. Diese Junior-Explorers werfen teilweise mit aufgebauschten Studien das Geld zum Fenster raus; drucken 500 seitenweise Papier, was nicht mal zum feuermachen taugt. Das selbe, was da oft drin steht, halte ich dagegen kurz und bündig auf 2-3 Seiten fest.In Venezuela, auch in Bolivien und Ecuador mag man ja vom Prinzip her, keine ausländischen anonym auftretenden spekulativen Aktienfirmen mehr da haben. Man akzeptiert allerdings sehr wohl, Bergbaufirmen aus dem Ausland, die einen vertrauenswürdigen und festen Gesellschafterkreis verfügen. Trotz der hervorragenden Binnenkonjunktur in Venezuela liegen da ebenfalls noch viele erfolgversprechende Minenprojekte herum.In Chile sieht es auf der Explorerseite so aus, dass selbst auf 100 Minenprojekten, die sehr wohl erfolgversprechend aussehen, gerade mal davon vielleicht 5 Projekte das Glück haben, eine solide Finanzierung zu erhalten. Das heisst, dass bei 95% teils hervorragende Projekte liegenbleiben, weil einfach keine Investoren da sind. Der Geldmarkt ist hier trotz spektakulär guter Minenprojekte, wie leergefegt. Ähnlich sieht es in Peru aus.Diese Situation mit den Juniors und Explorern sehe ich daher recht pessimistisch. Da ist mit keiner Besserung in absehbarer Zeit zu rechnen. Im Gegenteil, das wird sich hier noch extrem verschlechtern. Da hilft auch kein Goldpreis über US $ 1.300 per Oz nicht darüber hinweg. Bergmann

abc123

Weil du mich hier erwaehnst, mein Spruch expect the unexpected kann man in beide Richtungen sehen.
Herrlich wie Bergmann die kreditwuerdigkeit und resome vom management beschreibt, stimmt auch.
Ob nun das Ende der Juniors oder Explorer Euphorie ein Faktum ist sieht man erst wenn es wirklich zu Ende ist.
Es stimmt das momentan keine ist was gleichzeitig eine Gelegenheit sein kann preiswert zu kaufen.
Die Seniors muessen das finden was sie verkaufen darum muss die Exploration weiter gehen und die Reserven aufgefuellt werden.
In den Jahren 2000-2004 war es unrentable bei den Edelmetallpreisen zu suchen, seit 2003 fing es wieder langsam an.
Angeblich gibt es nun 1000 Explorer/ Juniors weltweit sagte vor kurzen Bob Moriarty.
Ken Gerbino sollte man lesen, er schrieb zwei Artikel ueber die Explorer und Juniors, hier ist einer:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gerbino/gerbino052308.html

Sicher,es gibt viele Felix Krull und Muenchhausen in dem Geschaeft, viele stehen um ein Loch im Boden und versprechen weiss ich was und verkaufen ihre Aktien sowie verwaessern auf Strich und Faden und sizten in einer Bar oder Puff anstatt zu arbeiten.
Juniors und Explorer die auch wirklich in Produktion gehen werden wahrscheinlich erst ziemlich am Ende der Gold und Silberhausse sich im Kurs multiplizieren.
Wer das genau ist und wer den grossen Fund macht ueber 5 mill. Unzen Gold ist eine andere Frage genauso wer von einen Senior gekauft wird oder lukrativ produziert.
Seit ARU in Equador gab es keinen grossen Fund mehr, bei USA Gold (UXG) in Nevada oder sonst wo bis jetzt nichts gefunden.
Wer sucht und findet nichts hat sein Geld schnell weg, besser gesagt das der Aktionaere.
Ich bin zu ca. 7% in Juniors und Explorer investiert, wer weiss ob einer hier was findet, ich streute mal und lasse mich ueberraschen in drei Jahren.
Mit dem Haufe hier unten liege ich seit gestern mit -17% im roten Bereich nach der heftigen korrektur die alle Juniors hatten.
Unter anderen sind da welche dabei die zwischen 45-62% im minus sind, was solls ich sehe die als option oder pokerspiel und rege mich nicht mehr auf.

NJMC.OB RSM.V AXM.V CNF.V DRA.V SGX.AX XOR.V NSU MVG.TO SOH.V SOI.V SOX.V TRX.V MXD.V DIB.V XRC.V REM.V AUU.V SQI.V SNS.V FUR.V R.V KDX.TO CGT.V MSM.V SNN.TO IMI.V TKO.TO CML.V PLE.V UNO.V GVX.TO CTQ.TO OLE.V CUU.V JPN.V BLRV.OB CPY.V TOGIE.OB SMR.V ADM.V XAU.V AUN.V ATW.V GIX.V RML.V PG.TO MKR.V PEZ.V KXL.V AUG.V SAS.TO KMK.V DGC.TO PLG.TO TRE EET.TO KGN.V OYM.TO ANI.V BCG.V CLH.V AGQ.V KAM.V BAJ.TO DMM.TO ROK.V LGC.V IMG.TO KGI.TO MSR.V

The Junior shares have been in the doldrums for two years and here are the reasons:

In the last three years there have been probably 3,000 new mining companies formed. Even with average $10 million market caps, this represents a $30 billion dilution to the junior market and a potential windfall to the promoters and insiders that are mostly dealing with moose pasture and geological dreams. Most gold bugs are suckers for a great gold story. So they sell 1,000 shares of a decent junior and buy a 1,000 shares of the moose pasture stock and when enough people do this the decent stock goes down and eventually the moose pasture stock collapses.

The Canadian mining industry was built on prospectors going out into the wilds with a mule and supplies for a season or so to explore and look for mineral traces on surface. This was high risk and speculators and investors for their grubstake were given a big piece of the action if anything ever developed. This tradition now continues but on a grander scale with the investment banks demanding cheap stock and warrants from the company for their own account and customers. The warrant kicker is now so prevalent in Canada that it has ruined the share structure of many small companies. Insiders sell the newly issued stock as soon as allowable and keep the warrant at no cost. If the deal works they have a free ride. But their selling kills most stocks.
Drilling rig shortages, assay backlogs and permitting etc. now can add 1-2 more years for a successful discovery to become a buy out or a mine. Time is money and these delays dilute the present value of the company.

Most management teams of small mining companies usually take very modest salaries. But they can own 2-3 million shares of stock at basically zero cost. They can’t send their kids to college unless they sell some shares. They also can’t wait 5-8 years for the mine they hope they will discover or for the ore body they actually have discovered to become a mine. When you are buying stock after a great press release the seller is most likely an insider.
After the last two years and lower junior stock prices people give up and start looking for larger companies. They then add selling to the market.
Unfortunately all these factors have really hurt the junior sector so if you are not an expert you should be careful. Thinking of holding on to a loser means you will most likely have your capital die a slow death.

Unless you own a junior mining company that is loaded to the gills with gold and silver reserves and resources you are in trouble. The ore body better be an economic ore body that actually without a doubt (almost) can become a profitable mine. The stock should be so undervalued that even the insiders are buying.

Most hard money investors would be well served to use these rules:

Sell any stock that is issuing warrants with their next financing and tell your broker why and have him call the company as well.
Never put more than 5% of your money in exploration stocks unless it is an advanced exploration play with plenty of prior drill success.
Look for developmental companies that are within a year from bringing on new production. This is my favorite area for our Fund and one that you should pay attention to.
Make sure that even with much lower metal prices (gold at $600) the company will still sell for less than 15 times after tax cash flow per share.
Always look for companies with giant deposits that have economic grade. Even if the company is small, a big deposit gets attention.
I hate to say good management because almost all companies can make it look like they have good management. But good people make things happen, not rocks.
In the coming years one of the best sectors for investors will be the mining industry for reasons you already know about. Progress in China and India, paper money, derivatives, insane governments, debt, etc. all point towards much higher metal prices for perhaps a decade. Don’t shortchange yourself. Stay with the companies that have the real goods in the ground.

For other articles on gold, mining and the economy visit our archives at http://www.kengerbino.com

Ken Gerbino

Volatility and The Gold Stocks

The recent volatility of the precious metals and the mining shares unfortunately is part of the equation of this investment sector. We attempt to balance these fluctuations in our hedge fund but it is a difficult task and requires focus and discipline. You should expect volatility with your personal portfolios in the future and realize that volatility in this sector is normal. But, in my opinion, this type of volatility is a small price to pay for the long term trend that is clearly in your favor and the excellent growth and value attributes of a well diversified and hedged portfolio.

The mining sector should continue to be one of the top performing investment sectors in the coming 3-5 year period. The past actions of the Fed and other central banks mean they will surely do everything they can to avoid a credit and debt implosion that according to many experts could be in the trillions of dollars of potential defaults and bankruptcies. If this estimate is true then bailing out the institutions that are in danger will require the greatest expansion of paper money in history. The winner will be gold and other natural resources because the more money that is created the higher the prices of basic commodities and monetary substitutes (gold and silver) will go. Gold mining shares are the beneficiaries of the economic excesses of others.

It is important to be careful of exploration stocks and allocate only a small amount to this sector. The large mining stocks are now being bought by huge non gold savvy hedge funds and will create lots of volatility as we go forward. A stampede by these players either way can be profound. The developmental mining companies with solid resources in the ground and a 1-2 year horizon to production will be targets for buy outs by mid-tier and major mining companies.

Good luck — you are going to need it especially if gold goes to $1,200 and then back down to $700 and then to $2,000, which is very possible in the coming decade. So always keep a core portfolio as insurance (and long term appreciation) and a trading portfolio that rolls with the punches. Do not go on margin and do not spend much time or money on the exploration stocks as more than likely every share you buy is usually from an insider who is selling. Also if there ever is a major economic upheaval gold and silver mining companies with known and verified resources in the ground will go up dramatically but exploration companies with nothing but a geologist and promoter’s dreams will go no where because they have nothing in the ground.

Remember that — they have nothing — so be careful.

Hommelberg seine Meinung:

Juniors are being shorted by Hedge-funds as part of a spread they play in the gold mining shares. They go long senior gold shares, short juniors thereby depressing the juniors to unimaginable lows
Juniors are facing difficulties in order to finance their exploration programs due to the on-going credit crisis. A junior that can't finance itself will bleed to death.
Juniors are facing sky-rocketing exploration costs which in turn accelerates the burn-rate of the remaining cash and therefore accelerates their way towards bankruptcy.
Most juniors won't find anything since only one out of 2000 projects will make it to a mine. Trying to guess which projects could evolve into a mine will most probably lead to tremendous disappointments.
There are so many new companies and promoters that money from the usual small mining cap investors is diluted.
The uranium boom and the ETFs are diverting plenty of money away from the (gold) juniors.

Highlights:

Junior sector just recovering from deepest over-sold condition since late 2002
CDNX has started outperforming gold over the last few weeks
Previous bottoms in CDNX/GOLD ratio were being characterized by sharp up-moves that lasted for many months
CDNX/GOLD ratio charts leave plenty of room for a giant up-move that could last for more than a year
Sentiment in junior sector has hit an all time low. This is a dream scenario from a contrarian perspective.
The industry is not replacing the reserves it is mining every year
High grade mines are running out of ore.
Even with gold at $1000/oz , it still takes four to seven years to open a mine.
The industry isn't going to be able to respond immediately to higher gold prices.
Reserves will be depleted in less than 10 years at current annual production rates
The industry needs some major new finds desperately. Since 1999 only a very few world class gold deposits have been found.
Majors are forced to acquire juniors because of the need for more reserves
Sentiment in juniors now similar like sentiment gold shares in May 2004 and May 2005
History says the time to buy is when sentiment hits rock bottom
Buying gold shares in May 2004 and May 2005 has paid off tremendously
Buying juniors now will be paying off most likely within 14 months from now
The junior short sellers will be having hard times pushing the sector into even lower extremes.
Short sellers must give up when extremes have reached their limits
As mentioned in point #1, it seems we've reached the extremes to the down-side
The extremes to the down-side open a window of BUY opportunities

more....
http://news.goldseek.com/EricHommelberg/1211990400.php

You're welcome !

Ist nicht von mir, habs nur reingelegt weils auch stimmt meiner Meinung.

Gruss

XEX Anmelden oder registrieren