Offene Immobilienfonds - jetzt raus ?

Zitat von taheth

Eine negative Rendite ist und bleibt negativ, also draufzahlen ist angesagt. Eine magere Rendite ist positiv, auch wenn sie gegen Null geht.

Negativrendite, schon der Begriff ist krank. Es heißt Verlust. Wie war das doch gleich mit dem doublespeech.

Da ändert auch eine Hin-und-Herrechnerei in Gold, Grüne Peso's, Schweinehälften etc. nichts dran.

Schaun wir mal wer am Ende der Dumme ist, wenn alle Hasen ihre Buchgewinne auf einmal realisieren wollen. Der Igel thront derweil auf seinen EM, denn die hat er im Gegensatz zu den Papierjüngern schon im Hause.

Alles anzeigen

Leuts',

ich kaufe auch gern das glitzernde Metall und lege es mir hin. In Maßen für eine gewisse langfristige Investition, ein wenig um die Krisenparanoia zu befriedigen, aber zum großen Teil weil ich es einfach schön finde.

All die Leute, die hier daran glauben, daß sie mit ihrem EM im Fall einer jeden Krise auf der sicheren Seite sein werden, kommen mir zunehmend vor wie die Hühner bei Ice Age mit ihrer Melone.

Jeder hier kann sich ausrechnen, wieviel Gold in D herumvagabundiert. Ist nicht soooo wahnsinnig viel. Wenn Ihr echt glaubt, daß nach einem großen Crash, bei dem alle Leute ihr Geld verloren haben:

A) die Gold/Silberbesitzer zu neuen Königen/Fürsten/Reichen werden
B) Man in einer ganz krassen Kise zu hause seelenruhig auf einem großen Haufen EM sitzen und die Leuts draußen liefern lassen kann (ohne gemeuchelt zu werden)

Dann stimmt was nicht in Euren Überlegungen.

Auch die Mär daß Gold und Silver die besten und sichersten Investments sind, ist Blödsinn. Das hängt ganz von der Zeit ab zu der man kauft oder verkauft - wie bei jedem Investment. Man kann alles immer umrechnen in dies oder das Am Ende kann man auch Gold oder Silber nicht essen. also wird entscheidend sein, was man am Ende im Fall des Falles davon kaufen kann. Über das letzte halbe Jahr waren EM's nicht so der Renner und hier im Forum wird gejammert, daß die bösen Cheater dafür sorgen, daß es nicht weiter geht mit der EM "Rendite".

Wie EM`s eine Rendite erwirtschaften sollen ist auch völlig unklar. EM sollen bestenfalls als Wertaufbewahrungsmittel dienen. Ihr könntet auch Gemälde oder Edelsteine kaufen. ist in etwa das gleiche. Ist auch völlig OK. Für mich persönlich ist es in Ordnung, daß EM keine Rendite bringt. Wenn ich etwas bekommen will, arbeite ich. Verdiene das Geld und stecke es in Dinge, die ich schön oder gut oder nützlich finde.

Zins oder Rendite aus Investments sind meinetwegen auch nur Inflationsausgleiche. Geld ist ein Tauschmittel, kein Wertaufbewahrungsmittel. Daher wäre es eigentlich völlig OK, wenn es Wert verliert. (fast) Jede andere Sache der Welt verliert über die Zeit auch an Wert. Ist der natürliche Gang der Dinge. Selbstvermehrung geht nun mal nicht.

Ja ich weiß, die bösen Bänker können das. Aber es gibt auch böse Chefs die mehr Geld einstecken, als ihnen zusteht und Spezialisten die einen Arschvoll Geld verdienen, obwohl sie ohne das Fußvolk und die Firma gar nichts währen. Ungerechtigkeit ist überall. EM's - auch als Währung - ändern daran jedoch nichts. Man würde dann Bänker und Banken gegen Mienenbesitzer und Goldkonfektionierer/Prägeanstalten tauschen. Das wäre alles.

Mall Glut to Clog Market for Years

Shopping-mall owners have struggled this year with a darkening economy, slowing consumer spending and store closings by retailers. But they face another problem that may persist long after the economy bounces back: a decade of overbuilding.

Brian Harkin for The Wall Street Journal
This mall in north Dallas is competing with two others nearby for tenants.

Developers have built one billion square feet of retail space in the 54 largest U.S. markets since the start of 2000, 25% more than what they built during the same period of the 1990s, according to Property & Portfolio Research Inc. of Boston. U.S. retail space now amounts to 38 square feet for every person in those 54 markets, up from 29 square feet in 1983, the firm says.

Consider a six-mile stretch of highway north of Dallas, where three developers are racing to finish four huge shopping centers with a combined three million square feet of space. Not only will they compete with each other, but there are three existing malls within a 10-mile radius.

"There just aren't enough tenants to go around for three projects," concedes Gar Herring, president of shopping center developer MGHerring Group of Dallas, which is building the largest of the centers.

Similar scenes are playing out across the country. DeBartolo Development indefinitely postponed construction of 700,000 square feet of retail space in Mesa, Ariz., due to weak demand. Green Street Advisors, a real-estate research firm, says 13 strip shopping centers under development have been canceled this year and 90 others have been delayed by the seven shopping-center developers it monitors.
[Mall Glut]

Of course, retail landlords struggle and store vacancies rise in every economic downturn. But this time, experts say, the overbuilding means that high occupancy rates at malls and strip centers may not return for years.

For retailers, the glut can have an upside: cheaper rents, shorter lease terms and fatter allowances from landlords for outfitting stores. This year, the rents in new lease signings are 10.4% lower on average than the asking price, down from the 9.3% discount of two years ago, says market researcher Reis Inc. of New York.

Shopping-center owners with a hefty focus on development, including Regency Centers Corp. of Jacksonville, Fla., and Weingarten Realty Investors of Houston, are compensating for the construction slowdown by trying to raise rents and sell older centers. Others, such as Kimco Realty Corp. of New Hyde Park, N.Y., have shifted much of their development abroad. Brian Smith, Regency's chief investment officer, said the real-estate investment trust has canceled some development projects, continued more cautiously with others and turned partly to upgrading existing centers. Regency's second-quarter profit was off 25%.

David Simon, chairman and chief executive of Simon Property Group Inc., the largest U.S. mall owner with 323 malls, sees "a decade of little new development" and a shakeout. "There were a lot of projects that shouldn't have been built" in recent years, he said.

Some big retailers are curtailing expansion and closing stores. For the first time since the 1990-91 recession, occupied retail space in major U.S. markets is expected to decline this year, falling by 1.2 million square feet, projects Property & Portfolio Research. Last year, occupied space grew nearly 61 million square feet, the firm says. Retailers that helped drive the building boom -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Home Depot Inc. and Starbucks Corp. among them -- have nearly saturated the U.S. Earlier this year, Home Depot said it would close 15 unprofitable stores and cancel 50 proposed ones, throttling back its store-growth ambitions to a meager 1.5% a year.

The building boom in north Dallas demonstrates how retail development went overboard. In 2004, when the Herring family began planning two million square feet of shops in two adjacent projects, the area was among the country's fastest growing, with houses sprouting by the thousands in Allen, McKinney and Plano.

Three miles south, Trademark Property Co., of Fort Worth, Texas, broke ground in 2006 on a 500,000-square-foot, $200 million shopping center named Watters Creek. Trademark nabbed Cheesecake Factory Inc., Chico's FAS Inc., AnnTaylor Corp. and a gourmet grocer, among others.

The Herrings landed their own big-name retailers, beating out General Growth Properties Inc., which had announced plans for a mall three miles north. After the Herrings cut a deal with a Foley's department store and Dillard's Inc., General Growth surrendered, recently listing its site for sale. The Herrings' big-box shopping center is slated to open next month and their open-air mall next August. But together, the projects are only 60% leased, based on figures the company provided.

It's unclear how another competitor that emerged near the General Growth site will fare. O&S Holdings LLC of Beverly Hills, Calif., intends to build a mixed-use complex including 600,000 square feet of retail. "I feel confident in our location," says Chris Shane, a vice president at O&S. But he said four projects may prove too many. "One project has to give," Mr. Shane said.

Apartment REITs seen at a crossroads

Hot sector may be headed for a fall, some say

Apartment REITs have been on a tear this year, but red flags have started to appear, and there are signs that the group's high-speed run may soon hit road bumps — or possibly even a blowout — in the months ahead.

As of Thursday's market close, the group generated total returns, including dividends, of 13.5% on average, outpacing equity REITs' 1.4% return and the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index's reading of -15.8%, according to the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts in Washington.

An equity real estate investment fund, or equity REIT, is a security that sells like a stock on the major exchanges and owns, buys or develops real estate directly.

Up until now, apartment REITs have been reaping the benefits of the battered homeownership market as more renters have been staying put in their apartments instead of buying homes. Also, steady access to cheap debt from mortgage giants Fannie Mae of Washington and Freddie Mac of McLean, Va., has kept apartment REITs insulated from the deepening credit crisis.

"Apartments have benefited from the housing crisis because people have to have a place to live," said John Good, an attorney in the Memphis, Tenn., office of Bass Berry & Sims PLC of Nashville, Tenn. "As foreclosures increase and residential mortgage credit continues to be exceptionally tight, it helps the apartment sector."

However, surging gas and commodity prices, widening spreads on Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac debt and rising unemployment are starting to take a toll on some apartment REITs, making it tougher for them to raise rents or access cash for new developments in order to grow.

At the same time, rising foreclosures and falling home prices could start to make home buying attractive again — which would hurt apartment rents and occupancy levels even more.

"Fundamentals are still healthy, but some negative data is emerging," said Andy McCulloch, an analyst at Green Street Advisors Inc., a REIT research firm based in Newport Beach, Calif.

SUBSIDIES DRYING UP
Mr. McCulloch, who in February had recommended investors overweight their portfolios with apartment REITs, has now cut that recommendation to equal weight.

The sector is "approaching a crossroads," he said. "Apartments no longer look cheap compared to other property sectors."

Publicly traded apartment REITs posted healthy revenue growth of 3.3% and net-operating-income increases of 4.5% on average in the second quarter, Mr. McCulloch said. However, he noted, a number of companies indicated they were having a tough time raising rents on lease rollovers and many have ratcheted down their guidance for the second half of the year.

The biggest red flags are coming from REITs outside the boom-and-bust housing markets.

"It was the first quarter where there was weakness from the demand side, outside the typical housing bubble markets," Mr. McCulloch said.

Indeed, up until now, most of the country's job losses came from housing-related industries — such as home construction and mortgage lending — that affected bubble markets such as Phoenix, Las Vegas and cities in Florida and California the most.

"Those markets got hit harder because they lost so much of that employment growth that was specifically tied to housing," he said.

But in the latest quarter, job losses and rising commodity prices started affecting other markets.

For example, Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc., a Memphis-based REIT that targets lower-rent markets, posted a weaker-than-expected quarter.

"Four-dollar-a-gallon gas, higher commodity prices for necessities — whether it be your milk, your eggs or your bread — are going to affect people at that rent level first, and that's what you're seeing," Mr. McCulloch said.

"They saw a sharper drop-off in pricing power in the second quarter."

At the same time, apartments REITs no longer have access to the easy, cheap debt that they had been tapping through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

"There's always been this subsidy for the apartment guys," he said. "But that differential between what the apartment guys can borrow and what the other sectors can borrow has definitely closed up a bit."

David Toti, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in New York, said he expects apartment debt-financing spreads to continue to widen. "Debt costs have jumped to over 6% from just over 5% at the beginning of the year, with spreads widening back over [two percentage points]," he wrote in a recent note.

Most apartment REITs are projecting a "pretty material slowdown in the second half of the year," Mr. McCulloch said.

'SHADOW SPACE'
Steven Marks, an analyst at Fitch Ratings Ltd. in New York, views the sector "cautiously" and believes that "shadow space" — unsold single-family homes and condominiums that are now being rented and therefore compete directly with apartment buildings for tenants — will likely dampen demand.

In a note, he said he expects apartment fundamentals to weaken slightly over the remainder of 2008.

Mr. Good said apartment owners will likely have a tougher time raising rents.

"Anytime you have an economy that has inflation on one hand and a slowdown in business growth on the other, with job losses, it's hard for anybody, including landlords, to raise prices," he said.

Mr. Good does, however, expect occupancy to remain stable. He doesn't see a mad rush of renters chasing after cheap foreclosed homes or jumping suddenly into the homeownership market.

"Yes, you can buy houses on the cheap, but most people don't have enough cash in their pocket to go pay cash for it, and credit is still tight," Mr. Good said.

The tougher lending standards, negative sentiment surrounding the collapsing housing market and the worsening economy have prevented renters from moving into the homeownership market.

"The percentage of families planning to purchase in the next six months is at a 16-year low," Mr. McCulloch said.

However, with rents rising faster than income levels, and home prices steadily declining, he said, renting has become less compelling.

Stephan: Fonds haben den Nachteil, daß sich zunächst die Verwalter die Taschen vollstopfen und die Brosamen (5%) dann den Anteilseignern geben.

Ich denke bei Tagesgeld (Postbank derzeit) bekommst Du auch 5% und bedeutend sicherer.

Damit hast Du dann teilweise die Inflation ausgeglichen, ist doch schon was.

Ich würde die Fonds verkaufen und 1/3 in Gold(nicht Silber!), 1/3 in Immobilien und 1/3 in Unternehmensanteile stecken, die etwas sinnvolles machen. Am Besten in Deiner Nähe und von Dir kontrollierbar.

Statt den Uternehmensanteilen vielleicht auch wenn Platz und sesshaft ein paar gut gefüllte Öltanks, das könnte mal ganz schön wertvoll werden.

Wenn du bei Immos bleiben willst, kann ich Dir mehrere Objekte in Sachsen-Anhalt und Thüringen nennen, die seit Jahren eine Nettorendite von 10% haben.

Wenn Du Dich etwas darum kümmerst, kannst Du auch 20 oder 30% Rendite bekommen, das Meiste steht noch leer. Oder Du hast eben ein paar Gratis Ferienwohnungen.

Meiner Meinung nach besser als ein Fond.

Und Steuern kannst Du durch die Reparaturrechnungen bei den vermieteten Objekten auch gut sparen.

Gute Entscheidungen allen wünscht

KROESUS

wer weis schon, ob in den 5 Prozent Ausschüttung nicht auch Abschreibungen enthalten sind, die nicht in neue Objekte reinvestiert werden.

Technische Überalterung und Energieeffitienz ist das nächste Problem.

Bestände können bei explodierenden Energiepreisen sehr schnell überaltern, sprich: wirtschaftlich nicht mehr nutzbar sein.

Vermietbarkeit ist dann nicht oder nur noch eingeschränkt gegeben.

Und dann gehen mehrere Jahresmieten für Investitionen drauf....