trotz aller beruhigungspillen des herrn rürup dessen verharmlosung ich gespeichert habe für die nachwelt möchte ich noch einige neuigkeiten anmerken.
ich fürchte wir erleben die größte finanazkrise aller zeiten.und wie von enigen vorhergesagt wird diese weltweit innerhalb weniger tage ausbrechen.
ich habe in einem anderen forum den bericht eines amerikanischen insiders gelesen.
er berichtet von den gleichen problemen wie bei uns das die banken untereinander zahlungsunfähig warn und nur noch mit zentralbankgeld den freitag überlebt hätten.er arbeitet bei einer usgroßbank und auf deren fluren rechnet man mit dem ende bis mittwoch.
bleibt festzustellen das die banken untereinander keinerlei vertrauen mehr haben und auch nicht haben können.
in den nächsten tagen werden die zentralbanken nochmals geld reinpumpen - das wird jedoch nicht über mehre wochen so gehen können.
und hier der bericht des insiders :
"This is not a bailout.
Let me preface by mentioning that I used to work in support of the NY Money Desk at Morgan Stanley. This trading desk did repo transactions. A repo is when you have large illiquid positions, such as securities, and you desire cash, either for short-term investments or to meet payment needs. You pledge the securities as COLLATERAL for the loan and you agree to REPAY the loan in short order. The alternative is to liquidate some of your positions and use the cash from the sale. It\'s easy to see how liquidation is problematic, especially if the cash needs are high. This is like a car title loan, basically. You pledge your car title as security for short-term cash that you\'ll pay back next week, for example. The difference is the sheer scale upon which banks do repos with each other.
The liquidity crisis you heard about was because large banks had gone very short of cash. They have been unable to move large blocks of CDOs because these are being marked to market (aka worth @#$%) and nobody is buying them.
Banks normally do not use the discount window at the Fed. They prefer to borrow from each other. The Fed offers repo loans where they loan money for short terms at the Fed Funds rate and they accept basically any securities at a par you state in exchange.
What occurred Friday is that banks WOULD NOT LEND to each other. The issue is that they believed that the counterparty was not SOLVENT, iow, had no cash and would not have any cash. NOBODY now wants to be holding those securities that were pledged, IE, the vast piles of toxic waste CDOs, because if the repo counterparty fails to repay, you are ACCEPTING those piles of steaming crap as collateral. Additionally, there\'s a matter of PRICING the collateral. With the MASSIVE, systemic repricing of CDOs that has just occurred, NOBODY can even figure out if the damned things are worth A DIME. So, NO BANK is going to accept these as collateral in a repo without a HUGE risk premium, if they\'d take them at all!
This is precisely why BNP FROZE those funds; they COULD NOT FIX THE VALUE of the assets! This should STUN you. The entire financial industry makes its money pricing assets and BNP, the largest bank in france, could NOT fix the price of \"BILLIONS\" worth of CDOs.
The crisis in Europe was way worse than here, given the levels of discount window funds injection into financial entities. Had the CBs not intervened, Friday would have been Armageddon. Banks were literally INSOLVENT and at the point of default on obligations, which would have set into motion the bazillions worth of default swaps derivatives that have been manufactured by these same banks.
But, the problem has not gone away. The Fed LOANED these banks this money. This loan has to be repayed. Even if they can roll over the loan again for another 3-dayer, at SOME POINT very soon, those banks will exhaust their ability to pledge collateral to raise cash and will default.
NOBODY wants to get stuck with billions worth of worthless CDOs and everyone has realized that they cannot have ANY FAITH in the ratings or risk assessments performed by the originators because these people were loaning to corpses for YEARS, to people who had no chance in HELL of repaying.
Remember, the money to the Fed HAS TO BE PAID BACK. It is not free cash and the Fed will not KEEP the collateral. The cash crisis is merely DEFERRED. As of Friday, the only institutions lending money are the Central banks. This is a crisis of immense proportions. The Fed is loaning money to keep gigantic institutions from collapsing and to prevent SYSTEMIC DEFAULT.\"
